Tribulations to look forward to in 2009!

[Gingerbread]

Anyone who belivies in Santa should take a look at 'More turbulence for aviation' http://mail.google.com/mail/?ui=2&ik=3012e50959&view=att&th=11e61e87b79e1555&attid=0.1&disp=vah&realattid=f_fp205c6d0&zw

And spare a Christmas/New Year thought for what Airline Consolidation can mean for the Virgin & Qantas Groups.


"Airlines in Australia and abroad will look to consolidation in the year ahead to create growth synergies and cut costs, analysts predict.

However, Qantas will be on the look out for a new partner after announcing in December that its $8 billion planned merger with British Airways (BA) had fallen out of the sky.
The Flying Kangaroo ended the merger discussions after the two carriers were unable to reach an agreement on "key terms".

Qantas's new chief executive, Alan Joyce, who took over the reins from Geoff Dixon in November, had warned that a consolidation of the two airlines was not guaranteed and that the deal faced "significant hurdles". It is understood the two parties could not agree on an appropriate merger ratio and Qantas has not ruled out further discussions with BA in the future.

Under the Qantas Sales Act, the Australian carrier is required by the Qantas Sales Act to maintain its main operational base and headquarters in Australia, and for its chairman and two-thirds of it board members to be Australian citizens. This could also have further complicated the merger talks." :\

[601]

analysts predict.

As soon as I see the words "analysts predict" I know it is a load of :mad:

[mattyj]

If you want to see they glass half full..have a look at the results of the big symposium in Dubai last month. (see Flight Intl Dec 9th-15th) After this little economic correction is finished and normal service resumes..with retirements and the total lack of foresight re training new pilots and engineers, the industry is looking at major shortfalls..19000 new staff will be required every year..

..ride out 09 and then its cream time for all of us :}

[Falling Leaf]

Another glass half full perspective, Recessions normally only affect 10% of the workforce, and even Depressions only affect around 30% of workers, so if you actually keep your job over the next 12 months you can take advantage of lower asset and energy prices and look forward to the recovery.

Remember, its only a Recession if you know someone who's lost their job, but its a Depression if you lose your own.:8

[framer]

Ops Normal?:eek:

[Gingerbread]

Like the simplistic way you view the future of aviation in Australia Leafy, but are you looking far enough ahead?

With the benefit of hindsight, isn't it obvious that 'Murphy' nearly got us all? As it says in Age article, The Year the Wings fell off Qantas, aviation is a hard industry at the best of times and Joyce will have a tough job rebuilding the confidence of travellers and investors in Qantas in 2009.

For a good overview of what lies beneath the Tribulations Coming in 2009! Pruners should read: http://business.theage.com.au/business/qantas-the-year-the-wings-fell-off-20081225-7559.html (http://business.theage.com.au/business/qantas-the-year-the-wings-fell-off-20081225-7559.html)

Will Harberson's view that “Qantas will look to build on the two-brand strategy by trying to secure an international merger partner in 2009” mean that the Flying Kangaroo may yet have its wings pulled off?

Not to worry, still time to spare a thought for what Airline Consolidation can mean for the Virgin & Qantas Groups before the reality of 2009 dawns on us all.


Happy Holidays.

[Duff Man]

create growth synergies
As soon as I see growth synergies I know it's a load of :mad:

[THE IRON MAIDEN]

Why worry?

Since the first 2 seater flew 1 passenger 90 odd years go. passenger numbers roughly double every 10yrs.

Sure there is some up and down movement each year, 09 might be down. So what. 10 should be up then. :ok:

if you have a job in 09 then great. If you dont that will suck, but try and ride it out. How many new CPLs are being churned out for Aus use? All in good time things will turn around and it will be gravy train time :)

happy new year to all.

[Falling Leaf]

Like the simplistic way you view the future of aviation in Australia Leafy, but are you looking far enough ahead?



I was only offering an optimistic perspective, not trying to dispute the intended message of your thread or provide a 'theory of everything'.

Personally, as a long term convert to the reality of 'peak oil', I think the future of commercial aviation is in dire s:hmm::bored:t, and any recovery will be extremely slow, aka Japan's 'lost decade'.

I guess I was just trying to take a small break from being negative all the time.:rolleyes:

[Gingerbread]

No doubt many Pruners appreciate your efforts to put some sparkle into Christmas Leafy - Thank you!

Personally, I am optimistic about what globalised consolidation can do for the Qantas and Virgin Groups but it already seems that apparent negativity around analysts predict & growth synergies suggests that convincing certain interests that unless airlines, employees, unions and government all help facilitate necessary change and acceptance thereof, that Australian airlines, and all those who earn their living off them, will be left to die on the vine while the likes of Delta and KLM/AF suck the life blood out of our battling Aussie airlines while BA and Qantas Execs decide whether or not, a Kangaroo with a Crown & a Staff is good enough to replace the union jack and the flying kangaroo on their respective aeroplanes.

Hope I am wrong.

PS: Anyone wanting a dose of loopy new year's medicine, can take a look at what the RFDS has done to lighten up the lives of others @ http://www.mailmarketingonline.com.au/RFDSXmas08/viewcard.aspx?GUID=6c%0A2c00cb-47f6-4e5e-841f-b749cdfc6c36 (https://webmail.aipa.org.au/exchweb/bin/redir.asp?URL=http://www.mailmarketingonline.com.au/RFDSXmas08/viewcard.aspx?GUID=6c%250A2c00cb-47f6-4e5e-841f-b749cdfc6c36)

[struggling]

You need to come down from off the clouds Ginger.

Do you really think that there is any chance that all those vested interests will pull together when AIPA can't even get Qantas to agree to giving all Qantas group pilots a mainline seniority number.

The last mob were speared because the 'Wets' figured that the ARG Leadership was too dry & litigious and now you want us to believe that Bizzo’s Team, that is yet to deliver an EBA, will somehow help pilots benefit from global networking if only we would: ....spare a thought for Airline Consolidation....
We love your idealism but you're dreaming mate.

[Gingerbread]

Hang on Struggling, my "idealism' (as you so quaintly put it) is at least shared by AIPA's immediate past president, who, in response to the following public comment by CAPA boss Peter Harbison 'Qantas would be in dire trouble had it not been for the success of Jetstar and...Qantas will look to build on the "two-brand strategy" by trying to secure an international merger partner in 2009.'],stated on the Qantas pilots website:
“I expect that quite a number of Institutional Qantas Shareholders; (rightly or wrongly), would agree with him.

However, as I understand the logic underpinning the emerging global consolidation of airlines, potential network efficiency is incompatible with LCC simplicity.

IMHO, the Qantas Group will, in 2009, have to make an unequivocal strategic decision whether to go with the long haul LCC model or somehow merge with other legacy airlines to create a global network at least as potentially efficient as Sky’s Delta/KLM/AF Alliance.

Regretfully for all Qantas Group pilots, without the creation of a Group Opportunity Allocation List, (GOAL) should Qantas Execs go with the Harrison view, career opportunity for Mainline F/O's and S/O's is likely to be bleak and conversely, should Qantas go for a Network Merger, Jetstar pilots will have an uncertain future internationally.

If however, a GOAL was put in place, Qantas Execs would be in a position to grow 'Qantas Airways' as the global market dictates and all Qantas Group pilots; be they Mainline, Jetstar or Qantaslink, could; by exercising personal choice, enjoy the best possible piloting career commercially feasible.”

Hopefully you will now stop 'struggling' and can better appreciate why airline consolidation decisions taken in 2009 are quite likely to have such far reaching effects on both Virgin & Qantas pilots.

All the best for 2009. Catch you next year.

[What The]

Hang on Struggling, my "idealism' (as you so quaintly put it) is at least shared by AIPA's immediate past president

That would be because you are one and the same.

The writing style drops you in it every time.:suspect:

[struggling]

Gezz, a phantom masquerading as a gingerbread man. What next! The unmasking of the prune community perhaps? Let’s start with you -What The. You seem like someone who doesn’t mind sticking their finger up and Prune needs more honest brokers like Dick Smith. But no pictures please.

As for you Ginger, whoever you are, your contributions are at least worthy of a considered response. Even if you do sometimes go off on a tangent and waste time replying to dropkicks and quangos alike.

While I wait, I’ll have a few more drinks and think about GB’s suggestion that the Roo must make a decision, whether to go with the long haul LCC model or somehow merge with other legacy airlines.

Happy new year to all.:8

[Gingerbread]

Day 2 of the New Year and already the Kangaroo has announced that it is considering axing its SYD-BOM-SYD service and puting Jetstar A330's on the run. Newspaper article available here:Pilots dispute may force Qantas to cut Mumbai service | The Australian (http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24863023-36418,00.html)

Is something more for you to include in your thoughts about 'whether Qantas will go with the long haul LCC model or somehow merge with other legacy airlines;' when you recover from your NY celebrations Struggling.

Reckon it will be but one of a number of 2009 schedule changes myself. All of which will have very little, if anything much, to do with the comparative costs of Qantas and Jetstar pilots and a lot do with decisions Qantas must make to survive the GFC and merge it's European ops.

PS: No prize for you 'What The....' Please sursprise us all and let us have your take on 2009 Trials and Tribulations confronting Australian aviation.