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vee1-rotate
17th Dec 2008, 23:43
Just saw on the news, breaking story, of 2 aircraft that have collided midair in Sydneys south west. No other info as of yet.

vee1-rotate
18th Dec 2008, 00:01
From the Daily Telegraph

A LIGHT plane has crashed into a home in Casula, Sydney and at least two people are dead, after apparently colliding with another aircraft mid-air.

It is believed two people are dead in the wreckage and two more trapped.

The second damaged plane has just landed at Bankstown airport.

The crash happened near the corner of Box Road and Flame Tree Drive, with the plane apparently landing in the backyard of a house in Flame Tree Drive

vee1-rotate
18th Dec 2008, 00:05
Accident occurred right near 2RN radio mast, inbound reporting point for BK.

jbr76
18th Dec 2008, 00:07
TWO planes have collided at Casula in Sydney's southwest.

The Ambulance Service of NSW says two people are trapped and two people are unconscious.

The Daily Telegraph reports two people are dead and that one plane managed to land.

The NSW Fire Brigades said one of the planes crashed into a house, while the second plane landed safely.

"Two planes have collided. One has landed safely and the other is believed to have crashed into a house in Liverpool," Brigades Superintendent Craig Brierley said.

"The plane (that hit the house) is on fire."

Firefighters are on the scene, and further engines are rushing to the scene.

Two planes collide in Sydney | National Breaking News | News.com.au (http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,24818005-29277,00.html)

Dick Smith
18th Dec 2008, 00:24
I think it was in Airspace 2000 we tried to remove the risky practice of directing lots of aircraft to one point where they are most likely to collide. In that case it was Prospect and 2RN.

Failed at the time- we will see what happens now.

Curved Approach
18th Dec 2008, 00:29
http://photos-a.ak.fbcdn.net/photos-ak-snc1/v1368/163/28/564236033/n564236033_1681648_334.jpg

the wizard of auz
18th Dec 2008, 00:32
I think that as long as aircraft require airstrips, we going to be stuck with that problem Dick. same goes for driving on the roads. how many car accidents were there throughout Australia today?. I can assure you there will be no massive road reform because of it.
Sad news all the same.

Trojan1981
18th Dec 2008, 00:38
Just south of 2RN, among houses in the suburb of casula. Two confirmed dead. The CHC (Ambulance) B412 didn't stay on the ground for very long. There are Police and NEWS helos in the area but aircraft still seem to be coming in to BK via 2RN.


Edit: Just appeared on the News. A white C152 with maroon stripes (Basair) along the side. It is resting upside-down in what used to be an extention to a house. RIP:(

Awnick
18th Dec 2008, 00:52
What a terrible tragedy, especially just before Christmas.

Condolences to all involved.

RIP

telephonenumber
18th Dec 2008, 01:01
I'm with you Dick. I gather the use of a few selected inbound (and outbound) points is for the benefit of ATC so that they know where to look. Flying into Bankstown via Prospect always terrifies me.

Diatryma
18th Dec 2008, 01:04
Liberty VH-XLY landed safely back on strip - Cessna 152 VH-FMG - not as fortunate.

RIP to those involved.

Di :(

CTOT340
18th Dec 2008, 01:09
If you look at 11:23am, it seems the 152 was the aircraft inbound from the NW.

WebTrak: Sydney International Airport (http://syd.webtrak-lochard.com/template/index.html)

Very very sad......

flog
18th Dec 2008, 01:11
Carrum at YMMB has the same issues. Every man and his dog from the training area, costal and generally south of the airport end up heading for the same river mouth.

Robin Pilot
18th Dec 2008, 01:13
Terrible news. RIP everyone, and my thoughts are with the families. Such a cruel time of the year for it to happen - not that there's a good time.

Have been on a high this morning after my first solo but this has taken the wind right out of my sales. :(

Wally Mk2
18th Dec 2008, 01:13
Dam such a sad sad event but here we go again. The 'experts' will be out in force double time especially the ones that live in close prox to 'any' airport.

Like a fwy, funnel A/C same as cars into a narrow bottle-neck then collisions will always happen.

RIP to some fellow aviators.
:sad:

WMk2

Diatryma
18th Dec 2008, 01:25
Hope it's not too insensitive to post this - but is was on the net after all.

http://liverpool.yourguide.com.au/multimedia/images/full/420176.jpg


Two dead in Casula plane crash (photos) - Local News - News - General - Liverpool Champion (http://liverpool.yourguide.com.au/news/local/news/general/two-dead-after-plane-crash-in-casula/1389904.aspx)

There are more photo's on the website - click on "slideshow".

Di

Ex FSO GRIFFO
18th Dec 2008, 01:53
Hello 'Robin',

"Have been on a high this morning after my first solo but this has taken the wind right out of my sales". (sic)

As sad as this occurrence is - and it is very sad, and unfortunate - it is an aviation event.
Does the same occurrence 'on the road' prevent you from driving?

Continue to enjoy your flying and 'treasure' your First Solo.

Cheers.

R.I.P. to those involved.


As an aside, low wing vs high wing...was the 152 the lower acft I wonder?

the wizard of auz
18th Dec 2008, 02:01
Strewth, the wreckage is very well contained in the crash site. very fortunate that no-one on the ground was hurt. could have been a lot worse than it was.

teresa green
18th Dec 2008, 02:02
Must have been on training flights, how dreadful for the families concerned, especially at this time. Unfortunately there will be now a rush of "close Bankstown" even if the airport was there long before the population gathered around it. Bankstown of course being the training ground for thousands of us over the years, as well as a busy GA base, serves aviation needs well, but a terrible accident like this brings it into the public eye. My condolences to the families concerned for the loss of two young pilots who had so much to look forward to.

Diatryma
18th Dec 2008, 02:02
As an aside, low wing vs high wing...was the 152 the lower acft I wonder?

Hmmmm..... Sounding more and more like the Moorabbin accident every minute !

Di:sad:

Diatryma
18th Dec 2008, 02:07
The Liberty fared a lot better:

http://www.news.com.au/common/imagedata/0,,6405506,00.jpg


Two die as plane hits home in Casula after mid-air crash | The Daily Telegraph (http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,24818001-5001021,00.html)

THE two pilots killed when a plane spiralled into a Sydney home following a mid-air smash were both women, it has emerged.
It is believed the pair were both aged in their late 20s.
The revelation came as the family which escaped - with their newborn baby - spoke out about their terror.
The pilot and co-pilot were killed instantly when their single-engine Cessna 152 burst into flames on impact, moments after colliding with another aircraft over Casula about 11.30am.
A student pilot and instructor aboard the second plane - a single-engine Liberty XL 2 - managed to fly from the scene and land safely at Bankstown Airport, where they were treated for shock by paramedics.

Di

das Uber Soldat
18th Dec 2008, 02:10
I'm hearing murmurs from a few people Ken Andrews was on board the liberty?

the wizard of auz
18th Dec 2008, 02:12
a tragedy no doubt, but certainly not grounds for closing an airport. I once again ask how many car accidents were had just Today in Australia?.
Are we going to have a major crack down on the road rules and start demanding the closure of highways?. I think not.
We need aviation, same as we need cars. noone goes out with the intention of killing them self's, but aviation is inherently dangerous due to its nature, as is driving along freeways. we minimize risk at every opportunity, but accidents wiil continue to happen as long as there are aircraft in the air and cars on the road.
get used to it, and move on. Its a fact of life.

GA715
18th Dec 2008, 02:15
Yeah.. heard that too. Heard it was a ppl flight test.

Pharcarnell
18th Dec 2008, 02:31
Wonder if some really smart SC could clean out the developers for closing Hoxton etc for mere money, further concentrating the aircraft density @ BK.

Interesting legal ramifications if it was won and comprehensively.

Just playing devils advocate here of course.

Socket
18th Dec 2008, 02:33
Hmm, burst into flames on impact. Typical journo, anything to sensationalise. I cant see ANY evidence of a fire at all. The blue plastic they were using to waterproof the extension is perfectly intact.

Just hope it WAS quick and they didnt suffer.RIP.

the wizard of auz
18th Dec 2008, 02:44
So either the new born baby helped in the interview or was actually in the aircraft when they escaped. That being the case, I doubt it was a flight test.
Could just be an added twist to the reporting though.......anything is possible.
certainly doesnt seem to be any evidence of fire in the pictures I have seen.

strykerZA
18th Dec 2008, 02:50
So either the new born baby helped in the interview or was actually in the aircraft when they escaped

Newborn was in the house with its mother, according to other media reports.

RIP

brendanwor
18th Dec 2008, 02:50
SMH says the instructor in the Liberty is 89 years old.

CTOT340
18th Dec 2008, 02:51
Does anyone know what damage the Liberty has? If any? From the pic it doesn't look like it has a scratch...

Matt-YSBK
18th Dec 2008, 02:52
I just saw a news break on 7 and "Experts" are already "Calling" for flight training to be moved away from Bankstown.

3 hours must be a new record.

My condolences to all the Basair crew.

Ovation
18th Dec 2008, 02:53
Another sad day, and an event that should not happen. My sympathies to all involved.

I had some anxious moments arriving over 2RN in the afternoon last September, when a twin reported 2RN inbound when I was exactly over the top and about to key my inbound call. After lots of head twisting looking for an aircraft at 2RN, it was really a twin about 2 miles to the S who called inbound early.

Now if someone calls 2RN that's exactly where they should be. It could be a fatal mistake to assume that the twin sighted to the S was the one calling over 2RN, because if it wasn't and there really was another twin at 2RN I could have ended my flying days in someone's backyard in Casula.

Seriously bad airmanship by the guy in the twin - he knew I was there and chose to make a deceptive call to get circuit entry instructions early. BK TWR was so busy I couldn't announce inbound until almost over the lake, and I was over-transmitted by another aircraft inbound from Prospect who became conflicting traffic for 11R, so I was given 11C.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but one thing I will assume is that BK TWR is able to see local traffic on radar - there needs to be some thought given to whether they can give advisories to avoid the sad event that happened today.

Transition Layer
18th Dec 2008, 02:54
SMH says the instructor in the Liberty is 89 years old.

Would have to be Ken then!!! Can't be too many other blokes out there pushing 90!!!

the wizard of auz
18th Dec 2008, 02:54
Ah, the baby was in the house.That would certainly make more sense. and a terrifying ordeal for the occupants of the house no doubt.
89 year old Liberty?????? wow thats far older than the average GA fleet aircraft. :ugh: there really should be a qualification you have to pass before reporting aviation in the media. :hmm:

Dick Smith
18th Dec 2008, 03:01
Wizard of Auz, you state:

I think that as long as aircraft require airstrips, we going to be stuck with that problem Dick.

You have completely misunderstood what I have said. To actually direct aircraft at one of the busiest airports in Australia to two reporting points (viz 2RN and Prospect) is the height of stupidity. To direct VFR aircraft to any single point is risky. See my Unsafe Skies document here (http://www.dicksmithflyer.com.au/artman/uploads/unsafe/16chapter15.pdf) in relation to Hornsby.

I have just phoned John King of the King Flight Schools, and he confirmed with me that nowhere in the USA do they have “reporting points” for general aviation aircraft to all track to (and no doubt collide) on the way in to a Class D or C airport.

Let’s look at the ridiculous Prospect situation. An aircraft flying down the light aircraft lane from Brooklyn. Instead of simply calling in (say 4 miles north, or 4 miles northwest) the pilot has to track to Prospect and mix with all of the planes coming in from the west.

It is amazing we haven’t had more accidents because we introduced such a stupid arrangement.

I tried years ago to try to get people to see sense with this. Maybe now after the fatalities, we will be able to move forward and follow the proven overseas system, where VFR and IFR aircraft are not all directed to the same point where the collision risk is increased 100 fold.

Launchpad McQuack
18th Dec 2008, 03:06
Interesting comments by a witness...


A witness named Michael told 2GB: "I was up watching a plane spinning out of control. I thought it was a model plane ... "Derek Darlow, a former mechanical engineer at Hoxton Park Airport, which closed this Monday, said that the planes were probably coming in to land at Bankstown Airport.
"There is an inbound reporting point in Prestons, which planes have to pass over before they land at Bankstown Airport and the planes were probably passing over that when they clipped each other,'' Mr Darlow said.
"Now that they've closed Hoxton Park Airport, there are fewer places for these planes to land and this sort of thing will be happening more and more often.''


That last statement is sure to provoke panic and paranoia amongst BK residents. Glad to hear the Liberty got home safely, sad to hear the Cessna didn't make it.....

LP

Matt-YSBK
18th Dec 2008, 03:10
Dick,
The reporting points do seem a little counter intuitive. In a CTAF situation most of us would call at 9 miles and then 3 miles before you get to your termination point the circuit and in the case of a CTAF there are 360 directions you could be coming from. In the case of the gap the first radio call is when you are at the highest statistical point where the collision can occur. (outside the circuit) Would it not make more sense to call say 3 miles from the reporting point giving your position relative to it so as other pilots know where to look. Then perhaps again at the reporting point.

Given the recent sadness at bk im not sure this is the right time for us to be talking about this.

CTOT340
18th Dec 2008, 03:14
Dick. I completely agree. Funnelling traffic to a single point all at the same altitude as each other before a single call is made, is pure maddness. I'm not familiar with Camden, but that can't be much better....

the wizard of auz
18th Dec 2008, 03:14
Dick, they will all eventually end up mixing in the circuit, so therefore they really don't have any form of separation until they all hit that point. Surely having a point further out that is a point that will give the controllers a point to work out separation before mixing with everyone else at the final destination would be a better option. At least they are in a lesser dense traffic area and come under some form of control before proceeding into a higher traffic density area. Every one knows that reporting points are where we all start to mix it up and are aware that this is where we should become more vigilant. a far better option than doing over the highest density area of traffic on the whole trip in my opinion.
Would it not make more sense to call say 3 miles from the reporting point giving your position relative to it so as other pilots know where to look. Then perhaps again at the reporting point.
It works like that at Jandakot....... As I am unfamiliar with the actual area being discussed, I only assumed it was like that there.
A very simple procedure change with regards to radio calls would certainly improve the safety aspect.

brendanwor
18th Dec 2008, 03:18
"Dick. I completely agree. Funnelling traffic to a single point all at the same altitude as each other before a single call is made, is pure maddness. I'm not familiar with Camden, but that can't be much better...."

Camden, at least, has 5 inbound points, and on top of that it's obviously less busy than BK to begin with.

"It works like that at Jandakot....... As I am unfamiliar with the actual area being discussed, I only assumed it was like that there.
A very simple procedure change with regards to radio calls would certainly improve the safety aspect."

Surprisingly not the case here in Sydney. But it sure should be.

1279shp
18th Dec 2008, 03:19
noone goes out with the intention of killing them self's, but aviation is inherently dangerous due to its nature, as is driving along freeways. we minimize risk at every opportunity, but accidents wiil continue to happen as long as there are aircraft in the air and cars on the road.
get used to it, and move on. Its a fact of life.


Rather close to the events for comments such as your WIZ some might think.

Car drivers don't get anywhere near the amount of training we have, before they're able to belt along at 30 metres a second mere feet away from other cars, driven by those just as "un-trained".

Truly awful, thorts to all.

Looking
18th Dec 2008, 03:28
As a former instructor at Bankstown and Jandakot, taught by Ken himself, I understand how busy the GAAPs are.

When I first started flying out of YSBK, there was nothing around 2RN making it easy to spot other aircraft and sequence yourself; and if worse came to worse there was nothing to hit other than good landing areas (or YHOX). Now Sydney has sprawled and the approaches to BK are over populated areas. I don't think its such a good idea to make a/c all fly to one spot over a populated area at the same altitude.

Prospect still remains unpopulated, for the obvious reason, but as Dick said, the approaches are more suited to aid the ground to air radio operator who sits in the tower!

YSBK and all the other GAAPS do need some form of assistance. BK ATC should be able to help more. Aircraft could also be fitted with government subsidised TCAS.

YSBK shouldn't move! YSBK and the industry should just be upgraded to meet the demands placed on it this century; but I don't suppose that'll happen under private enterprise.

A tragedy indeed. Accidents like this can be avoided. How about some black spot funding for this intersection!

RIP :(

Snail Dave
18th Dec 2008, 03:34
The report on The Age says the male instructor was 89 years old. Can that be right?

Capt Mo
18th Dec 2008, 03:36
Having worked closely with those at SFTC and Basair, this accident is tragic and close to home as Im sure it is for many of you. Stick together and support each guys and gals, I know it hurts when its one of your own, but together you will help each other through it.




On a separate note,

I had some anxious moments arriving over 2RN in the afternoon last September, when a twin reported 2RN inbound when I was exactly over the top and about to key my inbound call. After lots of head twisting looking for an aircraft at 2RN, it was really a twin about 2 miles to the S who called inbound early.

Ovation,

you are not required, nor should you be exactly over the top. If you have a look at the ERSA for YSBK it decribes the reporting point to be the north eastern shore of Prospect or South of the TWRN radio mast. I have flown in and out of BK for years and the people who call over, north, 5 miles out, well past the mast, or at prospect over the middle of the reservoir, well to the west, the south, anywhere but the little quarry where if you look at your VTC the arrow points to. While this may have nothing to do with this accident, It never ceases to amaze me how many students (and believe me instructors) dont know the correct reporting points.

It doesnt make a difference who calls first as sequencing instructions are given once you report at 3nm/warwick farm for 11, or downwind for 29, or given earlier to avoid confusion or conflict.

Dick Smith
18th Dec 2008, 03:48
Matt-YSBK, you are onto the correct point. Of course at Bankstown you can’t come in from 360 directions, about 180 of them are prevented because of the Sydney control zone and those huge unnecessary military restricted areas to the south.

I worked for years to try to remove the restricted areas so aircraft could come in from the south, improving safety. I failed at this, even after meetings with the military.

This should allow us to at least bring in aircraft approaching from the north. The more random you can make the entry points, the higher level of safety you obtain. That’s what they tell me from overseas experience anyway.

onelittlepilot
18th Dec 2008, 03:54
"Aircraft could also be fitted with government subsidised TCAS."


Are you serious? in a GAAP? No-one would ever be able to land, everyone would get RA's and be in TCAS climb long before they hit the circuit. People really need to use their eyes more, not rely so heavily on radar, gps and other gadgets. Let's get back to teaching airmanship, not instrument-ship.


Thoughts go out to family and friends of the deceased, and to all at Basair.

GA715
18th Dec 2008, 03:56
Yes. This 89 yr old is in fact an ATO.

carro
18th Dec 2008, 04:08
Havent lived in syd for some time, so i dont know what the new plans for YHOX are, but seeing as though its now closed, it might free up some airspace...

jportzer
18th Dec 2008, 04:16
I am a part-time student at Basair and given there are only a few female flight instructors, and the report is that two women died in the crash, I am stunned thinking about the lives and promise cut short today. I assume I will know soon enough who it is and am not looking forward to that at all.

I have also flown the accident plane VH-FMG quite a few times myself.

I am only new to the aviation community (under 30 hours) but apparently that is long enough to become acquainted with this horrible aspect of general aviation...

Is it correct that SFTC planes/students have now been involved in three major accidents resulting in three fatalities in the last 2 months? A hard landing last week, and a solo fatal crash a few months back...

Douche
18th Dec 2008, 04:18
you are not required, nor should you be exactly over the top

Capt Mo is dead right on that one!

Seriously bad airmanship by the guy in the twin


You're assuming the guy in the twin didn't understand the situation better than you. Most of them being IFR & dual COM chances are he would have had updates on your position on RADAR & be listening on BK TWR.

I myself have on occasion done that exact thing to ASSIST the flow of traffic & being certain to report the aircraft in front "is in sight"

Last thing anyone needs is a twin orbiting over 2RN in order to stay behind another aircraft.

BK TWR is able to see local traffic on radar - there needs to be some thought given to whether they can give advisories

There is such a system known as SY RADAR, should listen to it, its tops!

None of what I have said is directly related to this accident, its a tragedy & something that will unfortunately continue to occur from time to time

Ultralights
18th Dec 2008, 04:18
hows this for a solution, approaching from south, on headings from 100deg, to 180 deg, call at 2rn, if from heading of 180 to 240, then call at what was YHOX, if from heading of 240 to 300, call at prospect, and if from LOE and northerly headings, then report at Parramatta..
it will reduce congestion at the 2 current points, and give ATC a chance to arrange seperation if aircraft ar on different tracks, eg a twin inbound at YHOX can be asked to speed up or an aircraft from 2rn can be asked to slow, etc etc..

just a suggestion.... (i wont hold my breath waiting for it to happen though)

Dick Smith
18th Dec 2008, 04:18
I just heard Ray Clamback on 2GB explaining how in the United States, there is no such requirement directing small planes to reporting points at busy non-radar tower airports. These people could have been alive today if the NAS had gone ahead. See the document here (http://www.dicksmithflyer.com.au/artman/uploads/nasfinal_001.doc).

Notice that footnote 3 on the last page explains that GAAP would be changed to Class D as per the FAA system. The dates then say that in December 2002 “Class D tower dimensions and procedures will be modified in line with North American practice.”

This would have allowed us to go to the very modern and safe US procedures without having reporting points which aircraft are directed to - increasing the collision risk.

It is amazing the number of people who come on PPRuNe and discredit the proven US NAS system. How many more lives will we have to lose before Government policy is followed?

Robin Pilot
18th Dec 2008, 04:29
Ex FSO GRIFFO: Thanks mate. No it doesn't and no it won't put me off. I know it's an extemely safe activity - it just saddens me.

Popgun
18th Dec 2008, 04:33
I hope it wasn't KA. If so, the industry has lost a legend. Condolences to all those affected by this tragedy. RIP

teresa green
18th Dec 2008, 04:39
Believe the 89 year old former "Spitty" WW2 pilot did a sterling job of maintaining control of a severely damaged A/C and landed safely. Hats off to a truly great old war bird. :D

Sunstar320
18th Dec 2008, 04:41
7news reported the two women tragically lost as in their 20s and the 89 year old pilot is the correct age.

mr.tos
18th Dec 2008, 04:42
Correct me if I'm wrong, but one thing I will assume is that BK TWR is able to see local traffic on radar - there needs to be some thought given to whether they can give advisories to avoid the sad event that happened today.Nope, they have a small LCD monitor that sits behind them and is purely used to see the flow of traffic. i.e congestion levels, amount of a/c in the training area etc...

SY radar monitors:rolleyes: all a/c outside the 3nm radius of BK.

Dragun
18th Dec 2008, 04:44
onelittlepilot

Without debating whether or not tcas should be fitted into all aircraft, there would not be RA's if operated in TA only mode inside the GAAP. Waste of time having TCAS if you're going to set it to TA upon entering the GAAP? I'm sure the pilots of either of the aircraft in this case wouldn't agree with that. It would've been invaluable - TA or RA.

Aside from this, teaching airmanship is a complete separate issue to using technology to assist with situational awareness if this were to become the case.

Robin Pilot
18th Dec 2008, 04:45
SY Radar is one thing - but where these guys met they would have been having a listen to the ATIS and then dialling BK Tower.

medsdeb
18th Dec 2008, 04:49
"Would have to be Ken then!!! Can't be too many other blokes out there pushing 90!!!"

Yes it was Ken Andrews!

omnidirectional wind
18th Dec 2008, 04:49
ovation said
when I was exactly over the top and about to key my inbound call. After lots of head twisting looking for an aircraft at 2RN, it was really a twin about 2 miles to the S who called inbound early.:D

and then
Now if someone calls 2RN that's exactly where they should be:D

read the ERSA ovation, and i quote FAC S - 41 8.3(a)

...2RN (S of 2RN radio mast)


the reporting point is south of the mast as per the ERSA:ugh::ugh:. if you were exactly overhead then the airmanship was poor on your part. The twin was south of 2RN to avoid people like you...

thanks for giving us an insight into your wonderful airmanship. BK tower separating aircraft by radar, wonder why BK is a GAAP not class C

Robin Pilot
18th Dec 2008, 04:51
I just had a look at a video on the Daily Terror website, which is from a tracker website.

It shows the liberty descending slightly as it approached the impact point - the Cessna was slightly climbing towards the point - then the Liberty basically sat on the Cessna. So definitely ads a bit of weight - in my unexperienced mind at least - to the earlier suggestion of a low vs high wing situation. Although what you can do about that I have no idea.

LambOfGod
18th Dec 2008, 05:19
Was the 89yo in the plane that landed safely?

rip.

KRUSTY 34
18th Dec 2008, 05:22
The 89 year old instructor in the A/C that landed safely was K.A. my sources inform me. Thankfully he and his student appear ok. Absolutely terrible when something like this happens.

"Fate is the Hunter"

BPH63
18th Dec 2008, 05:28
a high wing reporting point and a low wing reporting point or wot dick says:hmm:

Clearedtoreenter
18th Dec 2008, 05:42
Seriously bad airmanship by the guy in the twin - he knew I was there and chose to make a deceptive call to get circuit entry instructions early. BK TWR was so busy I couldn't announce inbound until almost over the lake, and I was over-transmitted by another aircraft inbound from Prospect who became conflicting traffic for 11R, so I was given 11C.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but one thing I will assume is that BK TWR is able to see local traffic on radar - there needs to be some thought given to whether they can give advisories to avoid the sad event that happened today.

Ovation, Not bad airmanship at all. You decribe a 'normal' situation at BK, and particularly 2RN. Its best to get in just before you get there, if you can, but often you just cannot until well past. Sometimes its downright scary when you can hear a Citation or an Kingair (or maybe even a Mooney) up your bum. Closing of HOX can only make this worse and more dangerous. Radar? Ha! From what I understand, yes, the coverage is all there but due to more superb Airservices Australia mismanagement, no-one in BK Tower is qualified/able/allowed to use it. Dick is right on those reporting points and its about time them and CASA listened. Both CN and BK urgently need revised congestion risk assessment, especially in the light of the HOX closure.

DanArcher
18th Dec 2008, 06:21
very sad news, sincere condolences to the familys, friends & loved ones,

I just wonder how much coincidence there is involved with the recent closure of YHOX and the extra traffic now at BK & CN.
What really SH&Ts me is that the goverment received millions for the sale of sydney basin airports & the useless pricks couldn't part with a little to give BK radar...... more than likely 2 lives could have been saved today :sad:

sometimes I forget this is the 'lucky country' seems more & more like the greed country every passing year

telephonenumber
18th Dec 2008, 06:23
See and avoid doesn't work. TCAS doesn't work. The only thing that works spearing into YSBK with a mess of high wing, low wing, fast and slow aircraft funneled over two points in space at the same altitude is luck. Going somewhere else also works. (And that will make BAL happy too.)

telephonenumber
18th Dec 2008, 06:31
I'll bet you that BAL has its PR people already working with this crash hoping to incite community action leading to the eventual closure of Bankstown. This will be done by the creation of objection groups within the community funded from WAY below the line by BAL - witness Essendon and Moorabbin. Be cynical, follow the dollar and you will find real estate development. And does the federal government care? Not a jot.

Ovation
18th Dec 2008, 06:46
Captain Mo wrote:

Ovation, you are not required, nor should you be exactly over the top. If you have a look at the ERSA for YSBK it decribes the reporting point to be the north eastern shore of Prospect or South of the TWRN radio mast. I have flown in and out of BK for years and the people who call over, north, 5 miles out, well past the mast, or at prospect over the middle of the reservoir, well to the west, the south, anywhere but the little quarry where if you look at your VTC the arrow points to. While this may have nothing to do with this accident, It never ceases to amaze me how many students (and believe me instructors) dont know the correct reporting points. It doesnt make a difference who calls first as sequencing instructions are given once you report at 3nm/warwick farm for 11, or downwind for 29, or given earlier to avoid confusion or conflict.

I too have flown in and out of YSBK for almost 30 yrs, and agree with everything you say. On a WATLE 4 arrival I was instructed by SY RADAR to "TRACK VIA 2RN" and given traffic advisories. My point is the pilot of the twin was NOT at 2RN when he said he was. Now had he called "INBOUND 2M S 2RN" there would be no confusion or anxiety.

Any time I fly over a VFR approach point with reporting delays due to other aircraft transmissions, I will qualify it with "APPROACHING" or "AT' or "JUST PAST", so other traffic know exactly where I am.

My latest ERSA is in the plane, but an out-of-date one says: "ARR ACT shall TR via, and REP at one of the FLW CTR APCH points <snip> and 2RN (S of 2RN radio mast)". How far S does that mean exactly? Does it give the distance S somewhere else?

Douche:

Pretty good for your first post - keep it up. Shot any messengers lately?

You're assuming the guy in the twin didn't understand the situation better than you. Most of them being IFR & dual COM chances are he would have had updates on your position on RADAR & be listening on BK TWR

I never assume anything. I know the difference between where he was and where he said he was was about 2 miles. BTW, Ovation was IFR with dual COM talking to SY RADAR (read above) and is as fast or faster than the twin in question.

Omndirectional wind wrote:

the reporting point is south of the mast as per the ERSA. if you were exactly overhead then the airmanship was poor on your part. The twin was south of 2RN to avoid people like you... thanks for giving us an insight into your wonderful airmanship. BK tower separating aircraft by radar, wonder why BK is a GAAP not class C

Sarcasm seems to be your strong point, and I'm guessing because you are unable to have a mature discussion. Unfortunately your post doesn't add to the debate about the safety of YSBK approach points where today, an Instructor and student both lost their life, and a very experienced pilot (ATO) was involved in the incident.

The TWR at YSBK will quickly tell you if you bust an altitude on departure, so they know who you are, where you are and where you're going - they'll even file an ESIR if they're in the wrong mood. Are you suggesting that aided with such modern tools, they should passively watch as two dots merge and one disappears, as indeed they did today?

LambOfGod
18th Dec 2008, 06:58
I saw on NBN news that the Liberty had a red mark from the Cessna. The marking was just behind the prop, anyone else see this?

Lodown
18th Dec 2008, 07:02
Like so many aviation accidents, this one is devastating and such a seemingly inexplicable, needless loss of life.


that nowhere in the USA do they have “reporting points” for general aviation aircraft to all track to (and no doubt collide) on the way in to a Class D or C airport.


Nowhere, anywhere, not even close in the USA do they have anything even faintly resembling the mess of Noise Abatement flightpaths that lie over the top of the entire Sydney area, including Bankstown, like an invisible colander filled with spaghetti either. It's combined with required, regular duty runway changes to spread the noise.

This arrangement for political expediency to "share the noise" necessitates VFR aircraft in the Sydney basin be treated like lepers; pushed out of controlled airspace and 'funnelled' to specific routes and altitudes in and out of Bankstown. It doesn't matter what airport in the USA it is, VFR pilots in the US aren't hamstrung by a convoluted mess of changing runways and rollercoaster lower level IFR flight paths for airline operations that almost entirely force VFR pilots into low level compressed "see and be hit" funnels with very few altitude options. Compare apples to apples Dick.

You want to fix the procedures in and out of Bankstown with the application of USA procedures? I don't have a problem with your efforts. But I can't see how changes at one location can be made without consideration for updating the noise abatement procedures in and out of Mascot to conform with USA practice first, so that Sydney VFR pilots have similar altitude and ATC options to those in the USA! I won't hold my breath.

Uncle Festor
18th Dec 2008, 07:10
Once again another sad and tragic accident in GA. The use of two inbound points to Bankstown, lack of awareness of specific location of the report points as promulgated in ESRA combination of high wing versus low wing...who knows. I certainly dont doubt the abilities of K.A. and his age as the media are harping on about. Thoughts are with all those concerned.

kimwestt
18th Dec 2008, 07:13
Last Tuesday evening, around 1900 LMT, SY Radar was getting more than a little concerned - an inbound a/c to 2RN was catching another inbound to 2RN, with a closing speed of 60 kts(by radar). The rear a/c didn't seem concerned, could have changed altitude, or slowed down, but didn't. Radar controller ended up calling "traffic alert". There but for the grace of God went another incident. Viz was below average with mist and haze. Rear pilot VH-PG? didn't seem concerned then or later. What are pilots being taught these days? (I wasn't in either a/c)

Chimbu chuckles
18th Dec 2008, 07:24
Dick there is no way you can make the claim that your NAS would have negated this accident because it was just that...an accident. At least with inbound reporting points you have an idea where to look for other traffic..a bit like alerted see and avoid...if there were any number of 'acceptable' inbound tracks to a GAAP aerodrome you'd have no idea where other traffic might be or where to look.

That could easily lead to more separation breakdowns not less. Just like having completely anonymous GA aircraft sharing E airspace with RPT jets could, and in fact did, lead to separation breakdown there.

If something can happen it eventually will happen. Hence we have procedures in place like VFR reporting points and different classes of airspace to minimise the chances. Note I said minimise...you're no more likely to completely negate all accidents in the air than you're to regulate 100% road safety.

You're being your usual disingenuous self.:mad:

Matt-YSBK
18th Dec 2008, 07:41
avicon:
Perhaps we could use another frequency to make calls for the bk inbound/outbound lane and also approaching twrn and psp The Victor 1 frequency perhaps. A little like the old common frequency that was around pelican and warnervale.

omnidirectional wind
18th Dec 2008, 07:42
Another sad day, and an event that should not happen. My sympathies to all involved.

I had some anxious moments arriving over 2RN in the afternoon last September, when a twin reported 2RN inbound when I was exactly over the top and about to key my inbound call. After lots of head twisting looking for an aircraft at 2RN, it was really a twin about 2 miles to the S who called inbound early.

Now if someone calls 2RN that's exactly where they should be. It could be a fatal mistake to assume that the twin sighted to the S was the one calling over 2RN, because if it wasn't and there really was another twin at 2RN I could have ended my flying days in someone's backyard in Casula.

Seriously bad airmanship by the guy in the twin - he knew I was there and chose to make a deceptive call to get circuit entry instructions early. BK TWR was so busy I couldn't announce inbound until almost over the lake, and I was over-transmitted by another aircraft inbound from Prospect who became conflicting traffic for 11R, so I was given 11C.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but one thing I will assume is that BK TWR is able to see local traffic on radar - there needs to be some thought given to whether they can give advisories to avoid the sad event that happened today.


how does this add to the debate about the safety of the approach points, other than you bagging the other twin for reporting south of the 2RN mast, where you are supposed to?

wouldn't reporting in the correct position give the tower the best opportunity to see you, given there is no radar separation?

you seem to be confusing the 2RN mast with the 2RN reporting point, they are in different places...:ugh::ugh: just like prospect reservoir itself is not the prospect reporting point. you seem to want the exact location of the reporting point, check the VTC and the exact location is clearly marked some distance south of the mast.

oh and BTW, i'm sure the family is chuffed to receive your sympathies, i'm sure it makes all the difference to them - sarcastic enough for you?

and as a final piece of sarcasm you said

I never assume anything

and

but one thing I will assume is that BK TWR is able to see local traffic on radar

:D

flyinggit
18th Dec 2008, 07:55
I know this area where this tragic event took place. Being new to this game I've looked up into the skies aroind 2RN & it's surrounding area a lot 'cause I can't help myself to see numerous planes in close proximity to each other. Am very saddened by this but not too surprised:sad:

Interesting to note that since this thread was posted there has been approx one posting per 6 mins, in around 8 hrs there has been around 80 posts, just goes to how how deep such a sad happening reaches far into the hearts of aviation enthusiasts.


Flyinggit

Dj Dave
18th Dec 2008, 08:04
Another way to help with traffic avoidance would be to, for example, have a requirement, within x miles BK and below 2000ft, to be AT 100kts for SE or 120kts for ME.

nothing worse than a fast twin closing in on a little 152.

Dj Dave
18th Dec 2008, 08:21
Avicon, edited my last. Not to say it but to have the req' just like jet arrivals so as to "self-sequence" and better traffic avoidance from xxmiles away BK

Unhinged
18th Dec 2008, 08:39
remove the risky practice of directing lots of aircraft to one point

Well Dick, at some point in the approach sequence, aircraft arriving at the same airport have to come to the same point. We could always leave it until the runway threshold, of course.

Very disappointed to see your first post on this thread used to rehash tired self-serving justifications.

If you want to use tragedy to blow your own trumpet, how about starting by acknowledging the two people who went flying today expecting to come back ok, and didn't make it ? My heart goes out to their loved ones.

zlin77
18th Dec 2008, 08:47
High traffic airports like Bankstown will always hold some degree of risk, I can remember one unfortunate fatal mid-air there in !973 involving a Navair Twin Commanche and a DH Dove which resulted in four fatalities, I was actually invited to go on the PA-39 after making enquiries about IFR training that morning, however I had other appointments in the afternoon and had to decline......"Fate is the Hunter"!!

nick2007
18th Dec 2008, 09:04
My heart goes out to their loved ones.
Unhinged, do you say that every time there is a fatal crash on the roads?
Why does everyone say this or "condolences..." everytime there is an accident...
Unless perhaps you happen to personally know those involved, to me these statements seem to be rather silly and meaningless.

Fliegenmong
18th Dec 2008, 09:12
Everyone drives a car nick2007 , not everyone flies..................it's a thing among airmen perhaps.....:hmm:

Unhinged
18th Dec 2008, 09:17
to me these statements seem to be rather silly and meaningless

To you they are silly & meaningless, so don't say them.

To me, they are meaningful. I've lost friends in flying & other accidents. When I've been on the receiving end, it was somehow comforting to know that other people shared my pain. That's all.

Capt Fathom
18th Dec 2008, 09:29
Why does everyone say this or "condolences..." everytime there is an accident...

If you were true friends, you wouldn't be posting condolences on Pprune.

Do you think family members of victims read Pprune!

We are worse than the media. Rubber neckers and ambulance chasers, in for a good gossip!

nick2007
18th Dec 2008, 10:02
Ok, Unhinged, fiar enough, I can see your point there.

However why lambast Dick Smith for not immediately offering his 'condolences'?
After all you said yourself:
To you they are silly & meaningless, so don't say them. Dick might have an agenda, but so do the 'close all the damned airports' lobbyists, and I'll bet they wont wait until the bodies are cold before they start...

Capt Fathom, I strongly agree. Sometimes what I read on PPrune makes me cringe.

clay ramback
18th Dec 2008, 10:04
ABC News tonight........

The head of a flight school which owns the plane that crashed in Sydney's west this morning says he has previously raised concerns about flight paths in the area with air traffic controllers.

Basair CEO David Trevelyan says he is surprised there have not been more accidents.

"I don't know what altitude this collision happened today, but I would assume it would be around about that area," he said.

"So you've got the aeroplanes at the one altitude, pointing in the one direction, going to the one place. I am surprised it has taken so long for a collision in that area."

It's sad that some contributors in this thread have been argumentative and provocative when their energy could be better channeled into discussing better ways of entering Bankstown GAAP. I don't agree with Dick Smith all the time, but at least he attempts to focus the debate under his own name while anonymous others are downright rude, insulting and contradictory for the sake of it.

The two people who died today deserve better than that.

Unhinged
18th Dec 2008, 10:20
why lambast Dick Smith for not immediately offering his 'condolences'?

I truly don't mind whether DS offered condolences or not. If they are meaningless to him, then so much better to say nothing.

What I objected to, and still do, is that his first response to someone else's tragedy was to use it to promote his own controversial position.

It was inappropriate and insensitive

nick2007
18th Dec 2008, 10:34
I've looked at all you posts on this thread and you have not once expressed any form of condolence to the families of the deceased or any form of sympathy

I think we established in the previous 5 or so posts that, for various reasons, this is matter of personal preference.

and just as you are entitled to your tirade, Dick is entitled to voice his opinion. No, he is not always right, but is anyone on this forum?

Much Ado
18th Dec 2008, 11:09
People while this accident today is tragic and sad for those directly affected it is not a condolence thread.

It is also not a thread to make any negative/slanderous/libelous posts about any of the people concerned.

Robust discussion of the issues by all means but keep self serving condolences sentiments to yourselves.

muffman
18th Dec 2008, 11:36
From people who heard it happen, apparently Ken was as cool as always, and without a waver in his voice declared a mayday and advised the tower he would continue to Bankstown rather than try to check on the other aeroplane as he had concerns about the ongoing airworthiness of his own machine.

The smooth approach and landing that followed was the result of his enormous discipline, experience and ability. He deserves huge respect, and if I had to be involved in such an accident, he's the man I'd want next to me. It goes without saying that if avoiding action could have been taken, it would have been.

Clearly it was a tragic outcome, but without this man it may have been worse.

das Uber Soldat
18th Dec 2008, 11:47
The only reason it landed safely was because Ken Andrews would have "taken over".

If there had been a 20-25 year old instructor flying that plane, they would probably have crashed too!

Ken has forgotten more than most of these young instructors know!
The hell factual information is that based on? Idiotic post.


The fact of the matter is that regulations and procedures were set up by the concerned authority to make navigating via the lane and surrounding areas as safe and efficient as possible. I am sure they have taken a lot of things into consideration when setting up these reporting and tracking points. There is no reason why anyone should demand a revision of the procedures in view of this one incident.
Actually, I think there is at least one good reason, you might have seen it today? Round half 11 at TWRN? Christs sake people nearly hit each other at these reporting points EVERY DAY. The reality is that you have people coming from a huge variety of directions, all aiming for a single point in space. How can that be anything BUT 'as safe and efficient as possible'.

There is a reason places like Moorabin and Camden have a huge number of inbound reporting points.

CASA certainly has no explaining to do. They realised YSBK is a high-density area and designated the surrounding area as such. They have realased several instruction manuals and videos available free to download. It is up to the pilots to familiarise themselves with the procedures if they are not familiar with it. Even pilot who fly regularly into the area would do well to go thoroughly through the CASA publications on the GAAP procedures purely as a refresher.
I think I qualify as 'familiar' with the Bankstown procedures. You can watch all the bloody videos and read all the pretty pamphlets you want, if you've got 2/3/4/5 aircraft tracking towards one point in space, all day every day, you're going to have problems from time to time.

A good look out and listen out would have averted todays tragedy. Pilots should have their eyes peeled out on a CAVOK day like today, when increased traffic is to be expected.
eh? Listen out? You make the call at the reporting point, not before. Call me stupid but I'm fairly sure that if they hit each other at TWRN, there is a fairly good chance they got there at roughly the same time. Listen out wouldn't have helped, they would have tried to make their call at exactly the same time. Look out? Its not going to work 100% of the time, aircraft have blind spots. Low wing aircraft above and high wing aircraft below is about the best example you could concoct.

I do not agree with Dick's suggestion that more reporting points would ease the congestion and move traffic away from one single point.
Creating more reporting points would not move traffic away from a single point. Oh, absolutely. That makes perfect sense.

They whole idea is to get traffic to merge into one or two specific points where they can be expected to be found when in bound/outbound. Segregating traffic in a high density area adds to the problem becuase it calls for greater situational awareness. This is not always easy, especialy for trainee pilots who are already engrossed in other activities such as CLEAROF and navigation.
I don't even know where to start with this paragraph. WTF are you doing conducting a CLEAROFFS check at the bloody inbound point? Segregating traffic in a high density area is bad? Oh, silly me of course, we should jam them all even closer together! bleh!

I do not see any flaw in the current system expect that traffic merging into the lane from outside and departing the lane to enter ClassG pose some risk. This can be avoided by either restricting them to within the lane while transiting it so that they do not depart unless having flown it through, rather than be allowed to criss cross it, like you would in normal OCTA class G.
Its difficult to take seriously what you have to say when you construct a sentence like any of the above, I can barely make heads or tails of all that.

English , do you speak it?

Avicon: If I had to sum up your post with one word, FAIL comes to mind.

PyroTek
18th Dec 2008, 11:51
Condolences to the families of the victims of this event,

However, listening to ABC news on the topic, they called the Instructor "Ken Anderson" - The media is like chinese whispers.

das Uber Soldat
18th Dec 2008, 11:53
However, listening to ABC news on the topic, they called the Instructor "Ken Anderson" - The media is like chinese whispers

So tomorrow I expect to see reports of "Ken Anderson purple monkey dishwasher".

:E

das Uber Soldat
18th Dec 2008, 12:13
Open up your Syd VTC and have a look at it. It is already cluttered with control steps in close proximity, 2 GAAP aerodromes, several restricted airspaces, including Holsworthy just immediately south of GAAP CTR. Now where on earth do you want to accommodate extra reporting points. PSP and TWRN are not more than 7 NM apart anyway. Do you suggest we squeeze another one in between? I dont get it. More reporting points are a distraction.

Regarding CLEAROF, well I was taught by my instructor to do them regularly. Not to say that navigation/look out should take a back seat, but we are encouraged to CLEAROFS even when operating in the GAAP lane. Now if you have a problem with that why dont you take it up with my flying school in Cessnock?

Extra? I don't want any. I agree with Dick. The concept of directing multiple aircraft towards 1 single point in space seems a little stupid to me considering that I spend a fairly large part of my working day making sure the last thing I do is occupy the same point in space as someone else.

Further to this, after trying again to decipher your drivel it seems you're now talking about the transit lane of entry. What exactly does the LOE have to do with the usefulness of inbound reporting points for a GAAP? :confused:

They whole idea is to get traffic to merge into one or two specific points where they can be expected to be found when in bound/outbound. Segregating traffic in a high density area adds to the problem becuase it calls for greater situational awareness. This is not always easy, especialy for trainee pilots who are already engrossed in other activities such as CLEAROF and navigation.

It doesn't sound like you're talking about the LOE there.

Ultralights
18th Dec 2008, 12:15
.The only reason it landed safely was because Ken Andrews would have "taken over".

If there had been a 20-25 year old instructor flying that plane, they would probably have crashed too!

Just wondering, how many actual inflight emergencies have you had? i am only 1/3 Kens age, and recently had a smoke/fire in the cabin incident, sure the first few seconds your heart skips a few beats, you think, no, this isnt happening, but just then the training kicks in.. and the entire emergency procedure becomes automatic. you calm down, and do what you have to do..
just because th instructor is only 20/30 yrs old, doesn't mean they dont know how to handle and emergency. but then again, i was fortunate enough to be taught by Brian Wetless,Jack Curtis and Wally Rudin.
though i still think an actual engine off simulated engine failure or 3 would make a big difference in ones ability to handle an actual failure. back then it was legal for CFI;s to turn an engine off in flight.

Binoculars
18th Dec 2008, 12:22
So many experts. So few mid-air collisions to comment on. :{

das Uber Soldat
18th Dec 2008, 12:23
Sprechen Sie Englisch, wichser?
Ich tue, Idiot. Tun Sie?

Answer the question. Do you know the degree of damage to the aircraft? Can you in any way justify your post as anything other than a moronic assumption? By the time I was 25 I had gone through 2 engine failures, 1 control cable failure and a throttle cable breakage in flight plus a spate of small insignificant things like ASI failures. My god I'm still here! Ultralights is still here too?

How improbable.

KA is a legend, the student is very lucky he was there and I sincerely hope no idiot in the media makes a deal about his age. But don't put down 90% of the instructing community as 'flips' because you don't know what you're talking about.

Mate.

Avicon: Works in the USA.

EDIT: This argument is pointless. I'll let more qualified people debate what is the best way to prevent this happening in future.

iamanaussiemavrick
18th Dec 2008, 12:51
Hi All,

This news is really shocking for us in India who have done our training from Basair.
It is very tragic that this happened. Ken Andrews is really a legend. I am sure only with the help of his experience that he was able to pull himself and the life of the other pilot from the incident.
With the number of traffic that operates from bankstown it has always been difficult to maintain a safe watch out. Me myself had many close misses in the 1 year that i flew in bankstown.



Does anyone know the name of the two women who died?

coinowl
18th Dec 2008, 13:18
:ok: Good one Binos, Im still laughing. For the rest of you, its sad when people die like that, some days it is not good to get out of bed. Ive had many close calls in aviation but the military helped me to handle those. Sh*t happens, learn from the experience. Now going to my bunker. :E

Awol57
18th Dec 2008, 13:42
Sadly I am not suprised that it devolves to this.

How about you guys take the bickering to PM.

avicon
18th Dec 2008, 13:49
I do not want to continue this pointless conversation. I will say this much. It is a shame that this some of you have to stoop so low to turn this thread to push your own agenda.

If there is any good to come out of this tragic event, it wont happen so long as people bicker and squabble over things here. If you have anything constructive to say, say it. We were talking about what measures, if anything, needs to be implemented to improve safety for flights operating in, out of and around YSBK. If you have nothing to say on that then please stay out of this thread. Your contribution is counter productive.

To answer you, no I am not training to be a terrroristt, I am just angry that this sad incident has been marred by invoking god. You would do well to remember that not all of us believe or wish there to be a god.

This is an aviation based forum. Lets keep it purely for discussing things aviation related. If theology interests you, you may want to consider registering at one of the many religious forums. This is not the place for it.
God has no place in aviation. Period.

Much Ado
18th Dec 2008, 14:02
You people are unbelievable:mad:

Sunfish
18th Dec 2008, 17:34
Question:

"Would the current alleged shortage of ATC have anything to do with these accidents?"

bentleg
18th Dec 2008, 18:27
In the case of BK, the accident occurred outside the control zone.

Clearedtoreenter
18th Dec 2008, 19:28
Question:

"Would the current alleged shortage of ATC have anything to do with these accidents?"


Dunno - another question might be - with increased flying activity, have these GAAP airfields and associated reporting points now reached their capacity with the result that the risk of this type of thing happening is now unacceptably high?

Here to Help
18th Dec 2008, 19:46
Sunfish, no "alleged" about it, there is a shortage of ATCs.

It's pure speculation to talk about any link between the shortage and these accidents. Is this speculation useful in any way?