Will I have a job?

[OneDay21]

Just wanted a bit of an idea what the current situation for jobs in aviation are at the moment and what it will be like in the future.

Reason being, I hear constantly that there is a shortage of pilots but then again every second person i meet is either doing his Comm or knows of someone doing it. At the same time reading the african threads I notice pilots looking for jobs in africa even saying they'll fly single engine after thousands of hours of experience on multi and turbine.

I am currently doing my Comm and have a long way to go but just wanted to know if i should start scrapping the pennies together or start allowing my hair to grow back.

OneDay

[Solenta]

Aviation is very cyclical. ( believed to swing in 7 year cycles of boom and bust ) Just 12 months ago there was a massive recruitment boom - with most airlines taking on huge numbers of employees.
However, with the recent price of oil, and now the economic recession, the boom has turned to bust, but it should slowly turn around again in about 2 years.
The one good thing about any slowdown is that it allows experience levels to increase again, thereby increasing safety.
If you are just starting a Comm now with +/-150hrs, I would suggest you keep on doing it, even get into an integrated ATPL program. You can equip yourself with the tools to make yourself marketable when the recruitments picks up in a year or two, and you'll be a more knowledgeable pilot. What happened recently in aviation is what happened about 10 years ago in the IT world - everyone rushed out and got MCSE training, because Microsoft Certified Systems Engineers were in short supply and were getting paid a packet, so everyone wanted to be one, for the 'quick buck' - same's happened with pilots recently. Instead of going to uni, or doing a degree, a lot of people rushed out and got a PPL, then a CPL and are now sitting with 200 hrs, all dressed up with nowhere to go.
There are some posts on this forum suggesting you go and instruct - I'm not a fan of the 200ish hour instructor - you don't even know what you don't know at that stage ! Ab-initio, maybe, just to get your hours up a bit, then aim for the C206, Baron, Seneca jobs as P1 - learn to make P1 decisions. Don't chase the 200hr P2 thing - it will come around to haunt you later.
And a word of advice, DON'T waste money on a B1900/B200 rating with 300 hrs - you won't get a B1900/B200 job ( not with us anyway )

The tide will change, and by the time you are 'employable' jobs will be on the market again.
Good luck, remember knowledge is power. A 500 hr pilot with a Frozen ATPL is more valuable than a 500hr Comm.

[RedB@ron]

I totaly aggree with Solenta.

The big thing really is to get those ATP subjects. It puts you into a whole new bracket.

Good luck.

[OneDay21]

Thanks for the advice,
Guess i'll be opening the books up again soon then...
Not a fan of instructing either but as i've read before in the forum, rather get the wife to hate what I do slowly, think anything in the delta would get me the face.
Will seriously consider all the options as I understand some stick and rudder flying is essential.
A very thankful OneDay

[Harmattan96]

What's wrong with instructing? It will certainly give you those "stick and rudder" skills discussed, that is if you wish to survive your students. It is certainly better than dozzing off as a P2, doing the gear jerker and radio parrot thing. Those P2 hours, won't teach you a thing; just fluff a logbook, that your skills won't be able to justify in front of a perspective employer. Which will you go for? Quality or quantity? Be wise in your choice!

[ugflyer]

I totally agree with Harmattan96. What better way to start instructing than when you have just obtained the certificate? If you have 200 hours, then so be it. Otherwise, how is one to build flight time if they do not instruct. It can be argued that they could fly as P2 in some turbine and get experience first. But who in their right mind would leave a better paying job flying good equipment to go instruct because they now have 500hours. And besides, sitting idle pulling gear as P2 does not give you the experience to be an effective instructor if at all. How many times are you practicing slow flight, unusual attitudes, stalls with passengers in the back. The 200hour pilot will pass on the basic knowledge required to build a strong foundation. And in the long run will acquire more skill to take on that P2 job. That's my two cents worth.

[Frogman1484]

The main thought out there is that the pilot shortage will return once the economy recovers. Too many pilots close to retirement and not enough new ones coming in to the system.

Until then anything could happen

[erik07]

people also have to remember that the economy does not only affect employers. though less pilots are being hired at the moment, I could well imagine that flight training is taking a downturn at the moment as well, with potential new pilots deciding that the financial burden of going through pilot school is simply not something many people can afford at the moment... so yea...once the global economy improves, things should be looking pretty good again. the only question is how long this whole process is going to take...

[Propellerpilot]

Although there is a crisis there is also a small positve factor in this unfair social equation: the scissors between rich and poor are opening more and more - so the rich are actually getting richer and the market for flexible private jets is growing all over the globe.

Always nice to see someone out of the industry posting the facts - mirrors my personal experience as well, just a few guys manage to slip in here and there for reasons of luck or connections (or disadvantaged in the past), if your not one of them, you'll just have to do what we others all do: take one step at a time at the right time. I am enjoying the ladders, just hope there will not be too many snakes for me :)

[Golf_Seirra]

Can't say I agree with the concept that P2 time is just idle waste...

Most companies have changed their P2 setup now to include for a full P1 rating on 1900/200's, even if you only sit right all the time and wait for your company command upgrade.

That aside, flying leg for leg and being part of a "two crew" environment in the right company with good two crew SOP's, is worth it's weight in gold.

Considering most P2's do the planning etc...it's the P1's who get rusty and pull "handle". Your leg, your brief, your actions...

There is a big perception change in the industry towards contract pilots ( P2 specifically ) and I have personally been on interviews with local SA carriers where they have commented on my "contract" experience.

My opinion is the sooner you get real experience, the quicker you learn the ropes.....

P2 time on machines bigger than 12,500kg are definitely worth the time, especially if they have glass and FMS.....the holy grail of command time is changing.

Instruction at the current pay rate......not for me. I'm not going to get bent over without no butt lube....

[chongololo]

There isn't going to be a pilot shortage for a few years, maybe a shortage in a few small areas like Indian or Chinese airlines.
Go get you ratings at a small, cheap pay-as-you-go school, don't take out huge loans to pay for it, very risky.
Become an instructor if you think it appeals to you, you will learn good skills and judgement.
Always remember there are many different types of flying jobs to consider, don't get tunnel vision for the airlines.
Good luck.

[OneDay21]

Thanks for all the advice,

Will see how things turn out as i still have about a year to go for my comm, not disregarding any of the info though as I understand how both fields (Instructing and P2) can benefit future job employment.

Always wanted to fly citation X, so will have my eye on that most of the time but have heard airline experience is usually needed before following private jets.

Thanks for advice though..

OneDay

[Propellerpilot]

Citation X ?? How can you focus on that most of the time if you havn't even got the blue book yet? I don't think there is even one X flying in SA as far as I know, correct me if I'm wrong, but one thing I'm sure of: it will take you at least 10 years or more to get into a seat of somthing just slightly similar if you are VERY lucky - believe me. We all have dreams, but your head is too far in the cloud my friend:ugh::ouch: you will be very disappointed with aviation if those are the thoughts you are dealing with at this point in your career which has not even started.

[yanafrica]

hey Propellerpilot
you sounds negative my friend
you know, and most of us who got a good job now in aviation, knows how long it took us. over 10 to 15 years that was hard but fun and we never gave up because we had a dream.
let oneday 21 find out what aviation is about
after flying PA28,then get upgrade to the C206 or a 210 ,then the Van if lucky and may be a twin turbo prop one day and ........but what the hell if you like what you do !!!
and actualy he might get very lucky and get what he want citation X .
as long as you have a goal go for it oneday21
@+

[Propellerpilot]

Yanaafrica - I agree with your statement 100% - it was just the way Mr. "oneday" articulated himself in his last post - here we are telling of our aviation experiences and he comes back saying his eye is focussed at the Citation X most of the time, even now in the present - sure I think it is a nice dream to have for the future, I also want to fly a Global, a GV or a Citation X for that matter, however I am not focussed on that at all, as it will come, when I meet the requirements - I am more focussed on getting a bit of turbine time, saving money for the JAR ATPL, then maybe fly the Citation 1 for a couple of years or whatever offers itsself - those are little steps at a time. So what I am saying is: always focus on your next step. What also crossed my mind, is that by the time he would get there, the Citation X be of the shelf, replaced by something never seen before...

[OneDay21]

I merely stated it as a dream or goal, maybe you misinterpreted what i said.

There's nothing wrong with a goal in life, I am not naiive enough to expect things to fall in my lap or that I will magically finish my comm and sit in a plane I dream to fly.

In 10-20 yrs time I will PM you and let you know if my dream has or has not come true, if it hasnt i'll buy you a round.

Please re read the previous post though as it was taken out of context, as you said though propellorpilot, with the rich gettiing richer the private jet market is expanding.

I value all your advice but instead of acting out of rage, though purely state why I'm being an idiot and even laugh at the idea of what I said, there is no need to tell me what my limitations are.

You have nothing to loose with me having a goal that could be unreachable, you could purely gain a beer/whiskey...

Nothing is impossible, no matter what the situation, all depends on the person.

OneDay

[Propellerpilot]

I am not in rage nor did I define your limitations nor am I in any way suggesting to give up your personal dreams, you may or may not reach that goal and it doesn't matter to me and leaves me quite unemotional - it is just the words you chose and I do read what people write word for word - I understand now that you meant something different than you wrote - quote: "Always wanted to fly citation X, so will have my eye on that most of the time". That is different than saying: "It is my dream to fly the Citation X some day". To "have an eye on that most of the time" just sounds like you're stalking one particular type of aircraft, just analog to a cover girl on a glossy magazine at this point in time and pardon me if I find such a phrase a bit adolesceantly funny. Let's leave it at that and no further explanations necessary.;)

[OneDay21]

Who said anything about 21 being my age?
Assumptions again Mrs "proppelorpilot"...
There is no need to explain myself anymore as your mind has been made up.
I wish you all the best with your career and future.
Fly safe..

OneDay

[FlyTCI]

Could it be that your profile says 21?

[Propellerpilot]

Probably a guy younger than 21, flying the CitationX single crew on his Microsoft Flightsimulator...:p

[Der absolute Hammer]

Is it not possible that OneDay21 knows someone who has told him that when he has a licence, they will buy a Citation X for him to fly?
These sorts of things happen a lot in South Africa where nepotism is still often the only way up in certain political not correct circumstances. So yeah, perhaps he should have made the different phrase a little with the XXX but no green flashes in the eyeballs please?
What is so wrong with stalking anyway?
Weidmannsheil!

[Malagant]

Always someone that has to put someone else down..if you wanna fly a Citation X then so be it..at least U have a vision and a goal you working towards..as for the jobs..go to flightinternational.com and go the job link and you will c that even in this depressing time there is lots of jobs available..and on the same website you just have to read through some of the stuff to c that many airlines are ordering new acft and what they are actually ordering..and not just a few in Asia..Hammer sits in Bahamas and has alot to say bout SA..proppilot not much further than U and he wants to fly Citation 1 or GV etc but he has lots to say..:confused:

[Der absolute Hammer]

Hammer sits in Bahamas and has alot to say bout SA..proppilot not much further than U and he wants to fly Citation 1 or GV etc but he has lots to say..http://static.pprune.org/images/smilies/confused.gif

Not sure if this is my English but does that above make sense?
Anyway Malagant - do not kidnap my thoughts or words as you kidnap Guinevere.
Where Hammer lives is Hammer;s problem. Where Hammer's illustrious arse is at the moment is Johannesburg. Hammer has a right to have a lot to say about SA. There is one thing for sure which is that Hammer is more of a South African than you are ever very wahrschei likely to be..Even what language Hammer speaks is his problem.But at least I write without using those infantile abbreviations. I do not put any dreams down nor do I put people down except perhaps in this one particular circumstance...always someone that has to put someone else down? you say..and then at once go and try to do that....Go back to your impenatrable castle please.
(Big wink of course)(and stick tongue out also)

[Propellerpilot]

Malagant always has a lot to say also... join the Kindergarten.:D Then I guess you should give the youngsters some of your advice. I am sure they will apprechiate it. You make it sound so very easy and that these jobs are up for grabs for people with 200hr comms. And what about green cards and workpermits and stuff like that and what about licence requirements? Yeah dude it's no problem at all! Easy as pie, you just have to dream, that it is only you that they have been waiting for, to push those throttles all the way forward !

I do not know what is so far fetched, when I say, stay focussed on what you are doing in the present taking step for step, so that your goals of the future come within reach instead of distracting your mind with stuff that is still quite far away. It will all come with time and has nothing to do with getting someone down. But it seems some people in this forum take themselves very seriously and act like mimosas if only the slightest thing that does not suit their reality is said.

[Der absolute Hammer]

You gotta love dat Mimosa, the flower not the cocktail.
One finds it in Bengal. They call it llajabati and in Bengalesey that means the shy female, possibly a virgin but anyway, very on the button.
It was the dream to fly the C130 with a crew of females, no shrinking violets, the cargo of Morgan Spiced Rum and some boxes of Davidoff 3000s.
But yes, in Africa the permits and the cards are a big problem just like in the USA only here there is another compexion to the deals. Just because we are a bunch of primitives down here does not mean that we do not know how to make life difficult. But on my part please I must wish all the best of luck. Solenta on the first page #2 says it all for Africa flying and I think that he should know what he talks about somehow.....

[Malagant]

Typical..just reading your replies and some of your other post`s confirms your absolute superior knowledge of all subjects aviation related, and all else for that matter.:D :D

[Der absolute Hammer]

Okay..back to thread.
December World Airnews..Africa's leading aviation journal. seems it has not one advertisement in the usual back pages for any flight job.
Kalula and Mango both startt ops from Wonderboom by end of first quarter 2009.
SAA has reintroduced 747s on behalf of TAG on Lagos route.
Air Namibia new schedule Capetown - Walvis Bay.
Arik signs firm contract for three A340/500s.
F27s still operating in Uganda. Fly 540.
Sorry to say nothing more exciting of job newses.

[OneDay21]

Sorry just got back from flying the citation x on Microsoft sim..

Have dual citizen for SA and Britain, understand that there is alot more to it than just a passport, licenses,experience,ect..
For a low time pilot what would you need to fly in europe firstly(licenses ect..)?
Are there better oppurtunities in europe than in Africa?

Any help would be appreciative.

OneDay