CX will park more aeroplanes ?!

[hongkongpilot]

As they would expect ~5b lost for 2008, CX will park more aeroplanes.
Anyone heard the similar info ?
Who has the next year plan ?:sad:

[Arfur Dent]

Revised BOP coming out 18 Nov I'm told by a little bird............:uhoh:

[strike committee]

here we go again...

more expectation management just before the profit share... what do you know..

try thinking about this

poor fuel hedging management leads to significant losses - who gets the blame for that?
fines for illegal operations - who gets the blame for that?
if times are tough do you think they will scrap the (mis)management bonuses??

lets keep it real guys. cx has very large pockets. they have aircraft coming monthly. if they are parking jets it is because they have screwed up the crewing...

dont forget to send interested crews details ( email / mob ) to hkaoa @ hkaoa.org

[hongkongpilot]

Jagman1 and Krone, Thank you ! :ok:

Strike C, Lets wait and see on Tuesday. BTW, do we have a -ve profit share scheme ?

[Peebee and Jay]

COS 1999.1.4,65/17.2 B read through A and applicable to C says: "Individuals responsible for the "negative profit" are the only ones who qualify for this scheme." So my guess is that only employees in finance and cargo will qualify.

To your bonus!

:D

[strike committee]

here we go..

hong kong pilot? i doubt it.. it seems reasonably certain you work on the 3rd floor, either way ( it doesn't even matter which of you guys it is ) you all read from the same script....

for the info of all the REAL CX CREW. this stuff is straight out of the playbook. as i have mentioned previously, this is EXPECTATION MANAGEMENT. sure, you guys may have the means of hiding all the earnings to technically make it appear as a "paper loss" - ( remember the multi year fuel hedging loss taken in 2008 , overcharging CX for maintenance etc etc ) but please dont just assume that because you write it in 3 aliases on pprune that you have us fooled!

for the REAL CREW - see this for what it is and UNDERSTAND what it is they are trying to communicate.. if you say something over and over people sometimes take it as the truth. this is exactly what is happening here. tues may come and go and the profit and or loss will be anounced, but dont be fooled. just as all the senior managers preached that the fuel price was the bogey man when prices were high ( but no longer seem to mention it anymore... ) this is just the ongoing propaganda...

believe what you see when you go to work. all the flights i operate are full and a little birdie tells me that a system of collating the actual loading on flights is being worked on as we speak to counter the company pravda.................:uhoh:

remember, the email to send interested officers details ( email / mob ph ) is hkaoa @ hkaoa.org

[Noddys car]

777-200 currently in deal with Transearo for sale

B-HOU and B-HUS to be parked

B-HSH to be returned to lesser

B-HYE & B-HYH to be returned

B-KAG transfer to CX

B-KAE to be parked

Classic retirement to be bought fwd

B-HKW will still be delievered..BCF

Boeing delay pushed 777-300ER to only 3 a/c next year

Boeing 744-800 pushed back due delays

Boeing 744ERF pushed back due delays

One new KA 320 next year

[hongkongpilot]

Quote:
believe what you see when you go to work. all the flights i operate are full.....


You must be a bus driver !:)

[A. Le Rhone]

Krone, how is it that YOU are privvy to this information?

"KA Kargo to be suspended in March, with offers of unpaid leave or hk employment on C scale terms for the few guys on there".

Seniority prevents many of the KA Cargo crew from being assumed onto the Airbus fleet on other than their original A or B Scale. Unpaid leave?? Where do you get this from?

Amazing insight for an 18 year-old.

[strike committee]

Confirmation:

hongkongpilot Quote:
believe what you see when you go to work. all the flights i operate are full.....
You must be a bus driver !http://static.pprune.org/images/smilies/smile.gif

here is the point of all of this. for all to see, the thinly veiled threat.
pretendpilot, i may or may not be on the airbus,i maybe in fact on the 777, or the 744, it doesnt matter , you keep on guessing, i dont care. as per normal this is the way to deal to this taken by CX managers. instead of discussing the matter at hand, you have shown your hand early and resorted to petty threats and rely on fear to get your handywork done. are we scared of this sort of childish behaviour? well perhaps some are, but for those who have seen this sort of thing before just see it for what it is. outdated tactics that didnt work last time.

this is why we need to be a strong union. this is why it is important to talk to other crew in flight to educate and show new crew the real face of the management of cx.

when you find someone who is interested in becoming a member of the hkaoa, email their details ( email / mob ph ) to hkaoa @ hkaoa.org

[Arfur Dent]

Noddy

How's the Classic retirement being 'brought forward'?

B HIH goes in March 09 I know. HMD and HMF go later in 2009 leaving HVX and HVZ which are relatively new. I suppose the practicalities of a 2 aircraft 'fleet' will questioned sooner rather than later ie what happens if one is U/S for an extended period??

BOP out tomorrow isn't it?:confused:

[fire wall]

You people who claim inside knowledge have just spoiled the surprise -
I bet you don't even believe in Santa Claus !
Kill joys.

[sinkingship]

To add to Noddy's list XL-XO and possible one older 340 will go over the next year or so.

[And Then]

I hear KA's Airbus fleet is under-utilized and a small expansion of routes will occur.

[A. Le Rhone]

Good. Will Dragonair now be flying to Sydney as it was originally planning, until CX came in and squashed the plan?

[Yeager]

Why dont they just ground the hole bloody fleet. Now that would be cost saving messures, right. As a matter of fact. Timely grounding (selling, parking, returning) of aeroplanes is quite often the right thing to do. As an employee it may not look as an immidiate good thing for us, but in the longer run its preferable to have a profitable run airline. If Cathay Pathetic can not make revenue on certain routes with current freq. the only right thing to do is to cut down.

One of the few positive things to say about this outfit - because it is down to very few - is that in the end its a company that knows how to make money - in general. Morale and Ethics are another thing! :}

May the force be with you.:ok:

[Numero Crunchero]

Airline Economics 101
To keep things simple, lets say that airline costs are split 4 ways. Fuel, Route Operating Costs(ROC), Depreciation(and Leasing) and Staff. At peak prices fuel contributed about 50% to our costs, according to many company communications!

So for every $1 of cost, about 50cents was fuel, say the other 50cents split equally three ways between ROC, Depn and Staff. Now the problem with parking aircraft is that Depn and Staff costs are fixed. So you only save Fuel and ROC. So usually it is still economic to fly the aircraft as long as they cover only the variable costs, Fuel and ROC, even though the flights themselves may not be profitable. This also has the effect of lowering the lower average Fixed costs amongst more flights - overheads such as all CX city staff etc become a smaller component of each additional aircraft being utilised.

In the first half, apart from cargo fines, we basically broke even. So for every $1 of costs, which was about 50cents in fuel, we made about $1 in revenue. Now that fuel prices have fallen over half, and even including the relatively small hedge loss (2.8billion for 3 years versus over 50billion saved in fuel costs), then costs have fallen from say $1 to around 75cents recently. In the first half we were get $1 in revenue per unit of costs, now with the financial tsunami we are getting about 85-90cents.

So in the first half every $1 of revenue was matched by $1 in costs - currently that $1 in revenue has fallen to about 85-90cents but costs have fallen further to 75cents. So we are, at the operating level, profitable, IMO.

So based on the premise of operating aircraft if it is in excess of marginal costs, those costs just got a lot cheaper so even less economic reason to slash and burn routes.

I think the company is simply using the current downturn to rationalise routes. They have been expanding rapidly and needed every airframe until recently - a slowdown gives them time to put the right aircraft on the right routes!

So just remember, you don't need to be profitable to operate, in the short term, you just need to cover the marginal costs - the biggies being fuel and ROC. That doesn't mean that a 3 or 4 time daily flight schedule won't be reduced to by one or two a day, such as happened to LA!

During SARS many flights didn't even come close to covering marginal costs. Things aren't that bad - we are still ahead of the annual revenue budget and likely to exceed it inspite of the recent falloff of 10%.

[Grivation]

I'm sure, if CX asked, there'd be enough people in each fleet willing to take 6-12 months leave without pay. So if they did require a reduction in crew numbers, in the short term, it really shouldn't have to affect those who want/need to continue working.

All CX need to do is ask.

[N1 Vibes]

CX of course 'parks' a/c every night :\

Lighten-up, how many lost jobs during SARS? If your financial situation is that critical that 2 weeks unpaid leave will crucify you, who do you haveto blame?

Regards,

N1 Vibes

[Captain Dart]

Grivation, you are so right; all they have to do is ask and people would take unpaid leave or even a redundancy package. Unfortunately history indicates otherwise; in 1999 the choice was, for A Scale, sign for pay cut 'compensated' for by share options, be fired, or take the redundancy package (the 44 available redundancy slots were over-subscribed).

Subtlety does not come easily these people. Instead of just offering the redundancy package, they had to add 'sign or be fired' ,which led to refusing to fly stressed, Maximum Safety, 49'ers, court cases, onshoring and well, you know the rest.... 2009 around the corner and , like the echoes of the Big Bang in the cosmos, the reverberations of '99 are still going on!

[Apple Tree Yard]

...talk about a 'lost decade'....thanks CX, you've made my career very enjoyable....:*

[Tornado Ali]

N1 Vibes...you arrogant pr*ck. Some of the pilots earn a lot less than you do. CX management LOVES people like you. W##ker

[Arfur Dent]

Just a reminder here about Unpaid leave (ULV on the roster). You don't just go off for a month and get nothing! Your salary (now 11/12ths of what it used to be) is divided by 12 and paid monthly so the amount you get is 92% of what you always got for a normal month. If you take 2 months, it's 83% etc. NC can confirm.
Not quite as painful as you may think and all those jobs you can get done.......:hmm:

[MilPilot]

Has a revised BOP been released??

[ACMS]

Taken out in one go or spread out over a few months it's still A PAY CUT.

So you can put all the positive spin you want on it mate, you still take a huge pay cut in the wallet.

Something NONE of us need or want right now.

[hongkongfooey]

KA to bear the brunt of it

Hows that :confused: am I to understand that because of reducing loads etc that CX are going to put larger A/C on more flights to PEK and PVG.
Or maybe you CX boys would like to start flying to FOC, KMG, CTU etc etc.
Fill ya boots :rolleyes:

[D.B.er]

CX257 on the 19th has been cancelled over the last few minutes. Anyone know why? Loading was pretty light (I was planning to put my parents on it) and I wonder if its a new commercial policy.

[Humber10]

I'd say it was more likely a U/S 340...with no spare aircraft in HKG? I do note that 256 on the 19th is still operating though and it is now a 744, spare 744 in Lhr?

[Arfur Dent]

ACMS I'm not trying to put a positive spin on unpaid leave, I'm just explaining how it worked in SARS. This may be worse than SARS and ULV may become an option to being fired. You see the worst in everything so perhaps you need a few positive vibes once in a while.:ok:

[sinkingship]

I think spare 744 in LHR, one flight was cancelled and AOG'ed due to birdstrike waiting some new fan blades.

[goathead]

JAGMAN1
when did you say this revised BOP is coming out ?