Economical Crisis

[Mafae]

Cargo flyers, any of you who noticed a reduction in Flights, Destinations, Frequency, Freight etc.... due to economical crisis. Any lay-offs or talks, rumours about reducing the amount of Pilots or is the Cargo world still Blooming?

[RampTramp]

Just take a look at the IATA press release then maybe you'll realise that things 'ain't that rosy -

For Immediate Release Date: 24 October 2008 No: 49

News

Alarming Drop for September International Traffic

Istanbul - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced global international traffic results for September. Passenger traffic declined 2.9% while cargo traffic dropped 7.7% compared to the same month in 2007. International load factors tumbled by 4.4% percentage points from August to 74.8% in September.


“The deterioration in traffic is alarmingly fast-paced and widespread. We have not seen such a decline in passenger traffic since SARS in 2003,” said Giovanni Bisignani, IATA’s Director General and CEO. “Even the good news that the oil price has fallen to half its July peak is not enough to offset the impact of the drop in demand. At this rate, losses may be even deeper than our forecast US$5.2 billion for this year,” said Bisignani.

Passenger

This is the first time since the SARS crisis in 2003 that global passenger traffic has shrunk. Capacity cuts were not able to keep pace with the fall in demand. September load factors in all regions fell compared to August.
For September, all major regions reported that passenger traffic shrank, with the exception of Latin American carriers which saw an increase of 1.7%. Even this is shockingly down from the 11.9% growth of the previous month.
Up to August, the drop in international passenger traffic was isolated to Asia Pacific carriers. The economies of the region’s two major growth markets - China and India - slowed and Japan saw industrial production drop 5% in August. The sharp downturn in world trade disproportionately impacted Asia-Pacific carriers with a 6.8% drop in traffic in September.
The steady 5% international growth of North American carriers turned into a 0.9% contraction.
European carriers saw traffic drop from last year (-0.5%) as the region’s economies head for recession.
After years of double-digit growth, passenger traffic by Middle Eastern carriers turned to a negative 2.8%. While the region’s oil-based economy remains strong, the large portion of transit traffic exposes the region’s carriers to the global economic weakness.
African carriers posted the largest decline in traffic (-7.8%), a continuation of the previous month’s trend.

Cargo

This is the worst decline since the technology bubble burst in 2001.
Declines in air freight have slowed year-to-date growth to 0.1%, with all regions except the Middle East and Africa reporting negative results.
The most alarming drop was with Asia Pacific carriers - the largest players in the market. The region’s carriers reported a 10.6% decline.
Europe and North American carriers, which had seen flat growth through August saw cargo traffic fall 6.8% and 6.0% respectively.
“The industry crisis is deepening - along with the crisis in the global economy. Airlines, like all other businesses, are facing enormous challenges. But unlike other companies, they are denied some basic commercial freedoms - access to markets and to global capital - that could help them manage their business in this difficult time,” said Giovanni Bisignani.

[Mafae]

Thanks RampTramp, I am presently 20 years in the military and am thinking about switching to Civilian Cargo flying. Maybe this is not the best time to get out of the military , I guess the better option is to wait and see how things are developing. Last one in is first one out......

[RampTramp]

Mafae,

Hang in there a bit longer, this is a cyclic business and should start to pick up in about 18 month (he says with fingers crossed!). Good luck.

RT

[Dai_Farr]

Different industries, as well as different sectors within a single generic industry, operate to what you might term fortune cycles. These cycles may or may not be in synch with each other.

House sales are dead but rentals are on the increase. In aviation, freight fortunes are not always in synch with the fortunes of passenger operations. I remember from the 1980s and '90s that different continents and countries peaked and troughed at different times. This particular recession, however, seems to be aligning every industry and every continent into synchronicity and into the deep brown sticky stuff all at once!!

From earlier recessions, the air freight arm is likely to do better than the passenger flying arm. Business people are more likely to fly economy whilst holidaymakers may think twice about venturing off far enough to warrant flying. Luxuries are the first casualties of a recession but are also the first "tonic" after a recession.

We now have the low costs. Sure, they were hit by rising fuel prices earlier this year, but it will be interesting to see if their enticing fares enable them to buck the traditional passenger flying trends as above.

[greuzi]

I would rather have an economical crisis than an economic crisis. Sadly for us all it is the latter.

G

[Mafae]

RT,

I gues that`s what I will do, hang in a bit longer in the Military untill this ECONOMIC crisis is over. As far as the Economic crisis, I saw that Air Cargo Germany is starting business from Hahn. According to the website they are looking for TR B-747 pilots, would they consider offering a 747 TR? Any of you heard about that, or knows someone recently hired to start in Jan 09?

Mafae

[GlueBall]

Mafae . . . historically, the reality is that a pilot with the B74 TR will always be hired before a pilot without the B74 TR.

The general downturn in global cargo traffic is not uniform. There are always niche markets. Asians don't stop eating imported Australian beef; and Australians don't stop eating asian rice. And women don't stop wanting and buying roses [from South America] and tulips [from Holland]. People don't stop living during a global recession.

With the decline in oil prices, the cargo of alternative energy products [wind generators and photovoltaic cells] again is replaced with oil drilling equipment. Because oil is significantly cheaper than alternative energy.

If your automobile generator goes on vacation you don't stop driving your car, do you? You'll probably go to the shop and buy one; and the shop owner restocks the shelf with a replacement unit, delivered via UPS or FEDEx.
The shop owner saves inventory cost by stocking only one unit, because it's cheaper to get a replacement unit delivered next day than stocking five units on a shelf for months or years.

If ever you go to Hong Kong's cargo ramp, you'll see it packed with 74s and you wouldn't know that a global recession is on.

[L-38]

All very true, GlueBall. . . the reality is that during such times, there is less out there for all the worlds cargo line's to feed on. Aviation's game of "musical chairs" starts once again. . . . . . Whose chair will be pulled next?

[Mafae]

No Bucks.... No Buck Rogers