View Full Version : Post your bottom of the market guess

10th Oct 2008, 18:57
So when do you think the Dow/FTSE will hit rock bottom and then recover? Monday, Friday fortnight, 25th June 2009?

Post your guess here so we can see:
a. When you think it'll all be over and
b. At what level ie FTSE 3,918 etc.

This is for 'fun' and not for expert advice.

10th Oct 2008, 19:20
a. OCT 08

b. 3200


Squeegee Longtail
10th Oct 2008, 19:35
a. Dow 11.3.08 / FTSE 11.17.08
b. Dow 7454 / FTSE 3622

Next week's UK lottery numbers - 42,04,40,36,11,31 (in that order) Bonus 17.

Good luck! (send me 20% commission of anything earned)

10th Oct 2008, 19:40
Hang on a moment, I'm just going to pop down and ask the doorman...

mr fish
10th Oct 2008, 19:42
crude down to less than $75 a barrel by xmas and still 1.08 a litre is my bet:{

10th Oct 2008, 19:47
That will be down to darling Alastair, who I bet will stick 4-5p on a litre during the next few weeks.

10th Oct 2008, 21:05
FTSE: ~2000 December, 1000 March, 2500 September.



10th Oct 2008, 22:02
Lehman Brothers demise triggers huge default - Times Online (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article4922981.ece)

one company's CDS portfolio, sold for 10% of its original value.

There are trillions 'worth' of CDSs still out there on corporate balance sheets, wherethey will stay until governments force them in law to declare them. their values might as well be 0. This has started to feed off itself now, just as it was built. The pyramid is coming crashing down.

I honestly believe the West is toast. Central banks just wont be able to inflate their way out of this and believe this is going to make a close run on 1929. Massively hiked taxes will squash consumption for years. Depression here we come. Look at the price of oil if you want a hint at where demand is going. Vis a vis silver and especially platinum prices. (Gold will follow in IMO).

Some so called 'expert' advice. Amusing they completely contradict each other repeatedly.

How the experts thrive in a crash (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/investment/article4881206.ece)

10th Oct 2008, 22:14
The bottom will be about 6 months and 50% after I buy back in... I guarantee it!

10th Oct 2008, 23:01
I reckon it was Mrs Scarlett in the Drawing Room with the lead piping.

10th Oct 2008, 23:06
June 2009. FTSE 1200. Going to be bad- we have had only the bank bad news so far. We haven't even started on the company disasters yet to happen. Daily bankruptcies, 3,500,000 unemployed UK next summer.

11th Oct 2008, 00:01
a) April 2009

b) Dow 6900

11th Oct 2008, 00:01
Since there seems to be general consensus that it's all going to get a lot worse, I will be contrary and nominate next Tuesday as the bottom.

What's the prize, by the way?

11th Oct 2008, 07:20
Whatever it is, you won't be winning it! We will soon start getting company bad news, not just banking bad news, with numerous insolvencies and gathering unemployment which will hit the rest of the economy. We got a long way to go yet, and it will be long and deep. The momentum down at the moment is far too strong to change direction now. Sad, but unstoppable no matter how much taxpayer money is thrown at it. It's like an attack of diarhhoea, you can have Imodium, but it has to run its course, and this is a bad one. Don't look to 1973 and other mini financial crises- examine 1929. All the signs are there.

11th Oct 2008, 07:57
Far too optimistic, Rainboe. July 2010, FTSE 750 more likely.


11th Oct 2008, 08:52
no sign of improvement untill late 09/10
I have a friend in Syd who, despite having 20% deposit, and good well paying jobs, is having no luck getting a loan. it will take 6 months at least for the full effect of the downturn to be felt by the average joe on the streets

Effluent Man
11th Oct 2008, 09:16
Dow 6000,FTSE 100 3000. Below that the values of companies will attract asset strippers like the early 80's.

11th Oct 2008, 09:17
Especially in the UK where, for the past 11 years, unless you had a humongous unsecured loan and a massive mortgage, you were nobody.

Cash is again King.

11th Oct 2008, 11:35
Bang go the retirement plans. I'm too shell-shocked to play this game. :(

11th Oct 2008, 12:05
Cashed in all my investments and paid off all but a small remainder of my mortgage. Like many others the last year, and especially the last two weeks, have cost me dearly.

It had to happen but I am grateful that I am healthy, alive, have a job and almost no debt. Hence I shall quickly put my losses behind me while enduring the pain yet to come.

My company pension fund is looking shaky though to say the least.

Recovery? ABout 5 years or so I reckon.

Scumbag O'Riley
11th Oct 2008, 12:40
There is something evil in me which says we should max out the mortgage so getting money at, say, 6% and put it in (several) banks and wait until this current high volume nose dive is over.

One day the big boys are going to return to the stock market and anybody who gets in on the ride is going to make some serious coin, certainly more than the 6% you would pay to borrow your stake that was secured on your gaff.

Timing the market is the problem, it would be nothing better than a guess. If it all goes wrong one would be bankrupt, but then the way things are looking, if it all goes wrong that might be no worse than not being bankrupt anyway.

Hey VinRouge, you said you were jumping in when the FTSE hit 4000. Did you put your money where your mouth is? You need to throw all your fancy charts away and look at a simple one, i.e one that shows VOLUME! When the volume disappears we will be close to the bottom, when it reappears on the upside then we will be close to a recovery. No doubt there will be several false starts and this is where the retail investor will lose all his money.

11th Oct 2008, 14:19
a. 1300 (BC)
b. 1300


11th Oct 2008, 14:52
The day before democratic USA would have bomb some terrorist country.
Since downturn is big enemy must be big as well.
Ideal enemies for this case will be :
3.INDIA(less probability,too big)

P.S. Iran and N.Korea could also be considered but they aren't so big enemies.
Only if they combined both of them simultaneously it may be enough.

14th Oct 2008, 07:30
So 3 days later.......

The markets have all rocketed up and all guesses are wrong :hmm: Confidence has been restored blah, blah, blah, but is this the dead cat bouncing ? All those massive derivatives are still out there and economic data suggests that people are spending less because they are spending more on the essentials.

Yet the train is back on the track! Perhaps they brought Casey Jones out of retirement to drive it ? :} What say the ppruners ?



14th Oct 2008, 08:51
We have barely begun with all the insolvencies that are coming as people cut back on spending and bank loans are hard to get to keep companies afloat. I think this is some dead cat bounce. I have not re-entered the market yet, when I do it will be big time. Things are still fundamentally unhealthy, the recession is still coming. I think the current burst upwards is unsustainable- good for the people who can judge in and out quickly, but for the mass market investor, it is a sucker-rally to draw you in to lose a stack. I don't think it will last the week. We are just waiting for the next shock to take confidence away.

Scumbag O'Riley
14th Oct 2008, 08:57
What say the ppruners ?Volume not high enough, no significant buyers out there, tis a trap.

Mr Grimsdale
14th Oct 2008, 12:06
There's this girl in marketing, she's got a lovely bottom. Best on the market in my view.

Pontius Navigator
14th Oct 2008, 16:08
I have been following one share and it is very revealing.

Every morning between about 8.30 and 9.30 it drops then rises until midday. About 4.30 it is at another low, sometimes lower than the morning sometimes higher but always down from noon.

The low point was Friday. Monday was up but still lower than the previous Wednesday, Thursday. Today is highest for 5 days and near the level of the previous Tuesday. That is down over 200 points from the begining of the month and 400 from its previous average.

It is still a good buy but buy first thing on a limit bet.

Track Coastal
17th Oct 2008, 06:30
DJIA 7200 and SP500 765 will get tested in the next 6-12 months.

FTSE?? The FTSE is already close to its 2003 lows. Maybe a revisit to September 1987? FTSE 2400? (pre crash of '87.

PN. I used to day trade the SP500 at the CME when I lived 'over there'. The highest volume is via the day and postion traders in the the first hour and the last hour..

17th Oct 2008, 08:40
FTSE = now. Time to buy banking stock especially.

17th Oct 2008, 09:43
FTSE = now. Time to buy banking stock especially.

Surely the reason(s) that the banking stock is so low at the moment is because they are still holding massive liabilities in terms of derivatives etc AND the fact that they won't be (apparently) paying out any dividends to shareholders for the next 5 years ?

To my simple view of things they would be well kept at a distance, unless of course, one is taking the very long view. The DOW seems to be going up and down like a tart's knickers at the moment, almost like a herd mentality volatility functionality :hmm: I still think that the indicies will go a bit further down, apparently next tuesday is the settlement day of the latest auction of bonds of Lehman Bros (I believe someone mentioned this earlier).

As for numbers, only those with a technical understanding will know for sure.



17th Oct 2008, 17:33
Pontius Nav - are you sure you are not describing your libido ?

Track Coastal
24th Oct 2008, 11:44
DJIA 7200 and SP500 765 will get tested in the next 6-12 months.

FTSE?? The FTSE is already close to its 2003 lows. Maybe a revisit to September 1987? FTSE 2400? (pre crash of '87.

PN. I used to day trade the SP500 at the CME when I lived 'over there'. The highest volume is via the day and postion traders in the the first hour and the last hour..

I was wrong. DJIA7200 and SP765 will get tested IN DAYS.

The FTSE just blew its Support.

Cherokee Driver, I hope you didn't buy buy those bank stocks.

Gold. Physical Gold its getting to the launhpad shortly.

24th Oct 2008, 13:00
Poverty is useful.

Provides a degree of cool detachment, I find.

Can't even rustle up the necessary for some gold foil for the evening's gourmet repast.

(Incidentally, I was wrong about the bottom occurring last week.)

24th Oct 2008, 17:53
I was reading summat today about the deafening silence surrounding the Aftermath of the Lehman auction of 2 weeks ago that had a few dollars needing to be paid. It is so strange (or is it ?).... :confused:

The Russian RTS index has gone down in value by 75% within a year and Russia is apparently, according to certain circles, teetering on the edge and in need of intervention by government 'rainy day' money. Again, very little mention in the press, bearing in mind the various repercussions a default might bring.

The main Indicies in general seem to be going down in increments (with recovery), but the trend is down and until the banks have come clean with each other it can only continue. As to what they might get to in the next week even, i've no idea. Somehow when an Index goes through a '000' barrier then it loses heart and keeps going, such as the magic 10,000 barrier for the Dow a few weeks ago.

I'd have to side with Track Coastal, as he seems more 'au fait' than oneself. :cool: