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harrogate
8th Oct 2008, 11:43
Is crashing further this morning.

As low as $2.67 to the pound at 11am. Down from $2.18 10 days ago and as low as $2.03 in July.

It's recovering very slightly right now,, but if you're off there any time soon, you could do far worse than exchange today.

Online exchangers are offering $2.57 if you shop around.

Track Coastal
8th Oct 2008, 11:59
The RBA just slashed interest rates by a whole 1%, to stimulate consumption.

Japan (our major catcher of dirt) is tanking faster than expected, we are in poo down here. The whole asian economic region is in deep poo.

It still appears sunny even though we are entering a tunnel that looks narrow ahead. Its not a tunnel its a cave.

Asia is in deep shit. Asia buys our dirt (we don't do much else except dig and sell dirt and have people come over to see our place on holiday).

Tourism, Iron and Nickel industries etc etc (Gold should be fine).

Flying Binghi
8th Oct 2008, 12:04
we don't do much else except dig and sell dirt and have people come over to see our place on holiday

Hey, what about the food producers :ouch:

harrogate
8th Oct 2008, 12:06
Yeah.

But not all of Asia is in deep shit.

Some of the tiger economies in Asia are looking pretty good.

Binoculars
8th Oct 2008, 13:45
Well I confess to being at a loss to explain the plunge in the AUD from .98USD to .68 in just a couple of months. I thought it was the American economy that was in deep doodoo?

I can't believe the only reason for it is that we are perceived as only a gravel pit, there has to be more to it than that. Yes, we have remained strong over the last few years because of the resources boom, and that is driven by demand from China and India, who will apparently have no choice but to slow down production. Or do they?

I do know that P/E's for resource companies were not overly inflated here even before this latest decline. They were fully justified by the guaranteed production, given demand remained relatively stable. If demand crashes, of course, hold on to your hats, because everyone is stuffed including me.

But looking at the longer term, there are a lot of people going to be looking back in a few years, anything from one to five years even, at the current prices for great companies and weeping that they either didn't have the cash to take advantage or didn't have the nerve. The market is no place for the faint-hearted at the moment!

Our banks are as solid as any in the world, the resources in the ground aren't going anywhere, yet our dollar is plunging against a basket case. Perhaps Angels as the currency expert on here could tell me what part of this whole problem I am totally missing?

radeng
8th Oct 2008, 13:50
Track Coastal,

>have people come over to see our place on holiday<

It's a mighty fine place to come and see, though. I'm trying to figure out how to afford to come back for another holiday next year, just having got back from a month in Oz and Kiwi.

If I was 30 years younger, I'd be looking to emigrate....

Chimbu chuckles
8th Oct 2008, 14:24
Binos I would suggest it has a lot to do with the unwinding of the carry trade and speculators generally bailing out en-masse.

What we seem to be seeing, in the Oz $, is a return to normal...the 25 year average is 75 cents.

With the Oz$ down where it is (68 cents last I looked a few hours ago) Australia and EVERYTHING she produces just got a LOT more affordable to a cash strapped world.

It is good for our balance of trade - imports just got a whole lot more expensive.

As long as the world doesn't go terminal economically - and I don't believe it will - this devaluation is excellent.

We have discovered in the last weeks that most of the gains, across the board, in the last 5-7 years were illusory. What people thought was worth $10 was actually worth 3.

The greatest danger we face is from meddling politicians. :ugh:

Binoculars
8th Oct 2008, 14:44
As long as the world doesn't go terminal economically - and I don't believe it will

Brave call, chimbu, and based on what I'm not sure. In fact I'm not sure about anything that happens in waters previously uncharted by me. I mentioned I was satisfied with the position of the Australian banking system and its solidity, but we are a but a pimple on the ass of the big economies and no inherent strength will save us from the house of cards that would collapse on us.

I don't have a job to lose or a house to pay off, so my immediate future is not at risk, and I am confident that in whatever space of time it may be, the stock market will recover as it always has, and those who are standing back at the moment with a pocketful of cash waiting for the smoke to clear will be picking up bargains whenever they choose.

I would be standing back for a few months yet: who has heard a word from Dubya over the last couple of weeks? In a particularly nasty piece of timing, the world's greatest economy is leaderless at the time of it's second biggest crisis ever. I'm not casting any blame on Dubya, more the electoral system that carries the presidential battle on for so long that there are months where there is effectively nobody at the helm.

The weeks between the election and the inauguration are even worse, it's like the Christmas/New Year break here; impossible to get anything achieved, and I wouldn't mind betting that this current situation could lead to a precipitous change in the way American elections are held. Everyone is standing around watching a runaway train on cable TV as it careers along with no driver, destination unknown, while four people throw insults at each other, accuse each other of being to blame for the train's getaway in the first place, and demand to be elected Casey Jones in a couple of months.

Where is Bruce Willis when we need him?

Track Coastal
8th Oct 2008, 14:49
Flying Binghi (sorry about the cracks during the election BTW, I believe this is rather untidy)...
http://www.dfat.gov.au/publications/stats-pubs/mtd/australia_trade_0708.pdf

Harrogate
But not all of Asia is in deep shit.
As far a recipients of our raw materials go, who pray tell is going gang busters? F*cking Carnage was the terms used today by a finance buddy in Singapore.


CC
The greatest danger we face is from meddling politicians
6 central banks Canada, Sweden, USA, UK, Switzerland and the European Central banks cut interest rates by 50bps simulataneously and...

tio540
8th Oct 2008, 14:54
and EVERYTHING she produces just got a LOT more affordable to a cash strapped world.


The problem is we don't produce/make anything anymore. Australia does indeed sell dirt, but we buy it back as cars, plasma tv's and clothes with a lousy conversion rate. Check out the monthly trade deficit.

The other thing is even the gold mines have started to close, with their share price dropping from $2.00 to a few cents, then sacking workers.

The only good news is the Prime Minister has just announced "Dollar Watch", a transparent body to oversea the A$ value, headed by Kate Blanchett. A web site to come.

:)

Track Coastal
8th Oct 2008, 15:03
The problem is we don't produce/make anything anymore. Australia does indeed sell dirt, but we buy it back as cars, plasma tv's and clothes with a lousy conversion rate. Check out the monthly trade deficit.

Right on (webmaster note...I agree with him)!

The other thing is even the gold mines have started to close
Bit early on that. I think if the US dollar tanks (as expected sooooon). Mr AU will have a very good seat in the house.

Chimbu chuckles
8th Oct 2008, 15:06
...they are trying vainly to prop up asset values that don't deserve to be, and cannot be, propped up.

What would have been the result if the US bail out had been voted down and they put interest rates up instead of down?

Over a Trillion $ of liquidity pumped into the US market in the last weeks and a few trillion more to prop up Fannie and Freddie/AIG...net effect?

Asset values, be they homes or CDS/CDO, companies, banks etc need to be allowed to find their true value and then be bought out by those left standing.

Is this without pain? Of course not...lots of it.

And the alternative we are currently living?

This whole scenario has been predicted for YEARS and no-one listened...least of all the politicians. Worse than that we have the Paulson Plan - Paulson is more responsible than most for the shit we are in and we think he can fix it?

It seems to me we can either take the pain and be done with it in a year or so, much like 1907, 1921, or we can keep pouring liquidity into the market like they did in 1929/30 and most likely see a similar result...assets will still devalue but we will feel the pain for 5-10 years instead of 1-2.

I am no economist just someone trying to learn from history. If there is ONE thing we can take from this feckup it is that the world has WAY too many economists/Traders/Money men, etc.:ugh:

Binoculars
8th Oct 2008, 15:17
I have to look deep into my heart and ask what is happening to me; I agree with Chimbu Chuckles on a matter of economics. :sad:

Track Coastal
8th Oct 2008, 15:19
Bloody Norah...I agree with Chimbu.:uhoh:

Let it fail, provide help for the bottom end but...

Interesting how Dick Fuld walked away with over $500M for rooting Lehmann Bros.

EDIT: Binos and I posted similar 2 mins apart. NURSE!!! WHISKEY!!

Chimbu chuckles
8th Oct 2008, 15:26
People like Fuld et al need jailing.

Group hug?;)

Binoculars
8th Oct 2008, 15:28
In metaphorical terms, agreed. In reality, a group shout at the bar, any bar, will do me fine. :)

Track Coastal
8th Oct 2008, 15:45
My raison d'etre for logging on is to stir people and now I am healing rifts and agreeing with old foes. Bloody hell!

Binos, I just played some vet rugger (15 aside) with an old league mate in Townsville. He has Box de'Corporate with booze etc and bring a mate or two was the call any time. Care to accept an invite at Dairy Farmers in 09?

Chimbu, are you ANG or further north?

Chimbu chuckles
8th Oct 2008, 15:53
Call me a terminal optimist if you must but I just don't believe in apocalyptic rhetoric. I am not even sure about buying gold...but have.

The word cannot simply stop functioning. Banks can only be afraid of each other for so long before they start functioning again (without Govt intervention) or go bankrupt. Witness the Wauchovia/Wells Fargo/Citigroup machinations for how the market can perform without intervention. Someone clever at Wells simply worked out that in a world of constricted liquidity a real bank with billions in deposits was worth more than a first glance.

The world still NEEDS a lot of what Oz produces and it just got cheaper.

My bet is oil is heading for sub $50/bbl. That'll be a help to every industry on the planet (except Wall St:E )...particularly ours.

Ex Air Nuigini...now further North West. Sitting hoping my small oil rich sultanate employer can protect me from the worst excesses of the US boogy man.:ooh:

Binoculars
8th Oct 2008, 15:59
Care to accept an invite at Dairy Farmers in 09?


Invite accepted without question. What did you expect me to say? Will our large mutual friend be there too?
:ok:

Binoculars
8th Oct 2008, 16:08
somebody I don't usually bother responding to, in fact I'm still not, has said,The other thing is even the gold mines have started to close, with their share price dropping from $2.00 to a few cents, then sacking workers.

I don't know any gold mines in that position, though I'm not entirely sure what Monarch's final result was. What I do know is that I am a significant shareholder in a gold mining company which by poor management is trying to shaft all shareholders into accepting a resolution which would sign away all their rights, relying on the old maxim "a percentage of something is better than 100% of nothing".

They are in for a rude shock as I am part of a large group of very educated and knowlegeable shareholders with solid connections who I believe will rattle the board and rescue this company. If my expectations come to fruition I will post the name of the company here and advise you all to get on board. Stay tuned!

Track Coastal
8th Oct 2008, 16:10
Will our large mutual friend be there too
I understand he has ambitions of redesigning himself, in the physical sense as the light and nippy halfback.

I don't think Jon Thurston is feeling pressured just yet.

But, to answer your question, yes. I have mentioned this to him yesterday and he sounded rather enthused.

But by then he may be a mung bean eating, mineral water drinker at a league match in NQ so he may be the nominated gay driver if asked.

Capt.Grumpy
8th Oct 2008, 16:11
Will our large mutual friend be there too?

By the time the next NRL season comes around I will only be half the man I am today....but probably not as these days I really have not much interest in either rugby code. My only thugby lagoo game this year was the GF.

nominated gay driver if asked.

FCUK OFF, I will still be able to drink whiskeys/whiskys of both varieties. Two to the valley for that suggestion TC

Track Coastal
8th Oct 2008, 16:18
ROFLMAO

Look at the post above yours (1 minute).

As to TIO540 and gold.

Gold is the ultimate hedge my friend. It is safety.

If Iron, Nickel, Coal etc tanks and we are replaying a scene from Mad Max 4...who wins?

The guy with the yellow metal.

Capt.Grumpy
8th Oct 2008, 16:21
Never have liked mung beans and as for water........as WC Fields said....water...never touch the stuff......fish fcuk in it.

Binoculars
8th Oct 2008, 16:23
Yet for some reason it tastes bloody beautiful on Wednesday mornings. Never been able to work that one out.

Capt.Grumpy
8th Oct 2008, 16:26
I've seen what you drink on Tuesday nights Binos so anything would taste good on Wednesday mornings :}