How much longer with this pilot shortage persist?

[Dixondik]

G'day,

Would like to hear from the guys who have been in the industry for decades or have exstensive experience in the GA industry.

How much longer will this pilot shortage last? The call has gone out, more people getting (or renewing) their licences, jobs being filled, airlines backing out of rapid expansion options. etc.

Is it wrong of me to think this shortage will only last another year if that?

[Cessna Capt]

with the oil price this high its all over

if the price falls and OPEC increase supply and airlines turn arround then it might start up, but there are a lot of ands and ifs

[ForkTailedDrKiller]

Finished last Tuesday!

Did you miss it? Another one will come around in 10 years or so!

Dr :8

[cjam]

heh heh....it's funny cause it's true .

[Green gorilla]

Been flying for 20 years and only seen it once.

[Howard Hughes]

OPEC increase supply
Opec, in particular Saudi Arabia have increased production, the price still went UP!!:eek:

[Peter Fanelli]

Which just proves it's nothing to do with supply and demand, it's just OPEC screwing the world.

[PlankBlender]

I don't. Agree, that is. :}

The shortage is here to stay. There might be a bit of a lull until oil prices come down (which they will and already are), but it'll pick up again:

Because the underlying trends and phenomenon that have led to the pilot shortage have not and will not go away, and they are fundamentally unaffected by temporary (oil) or regional (US) crises.

The growth potential in India, China, and other parts of the world is not going away because of high interest rates here or a messy economy in the US.

Babyboomer pilots are still retiring, and although airlines are pushing back deliveries of new planes until they have rigged their business model to the higher operating costs, a record number of new planes has been sold and will need crews in the years to come.

In addition, elasticity of demand for travel is low, ie people pay the fuel surcharge because they need to travel and are prepared to pay higher prices.

Also, a lot of the BS sprouted by airline CEOs about reducing capacity because of high oil prices is simply a convenient and popularly understood reasoning to address inefficiencies in their operation. It'll make the industry meaner and leaner.

GA companies and training schools are still offering above award for newbies (just look at the job ads), minimum requirements are still at an all time low, so where the evidence to the contrary?

[KRUSTY 34]

Go out to Bankstown, Jandakot, Archerfield, etc, etc.... How many home grown CPL candidates are in the circuit compared to those destined for foriegn carriers?

There's your answer!

P.S.

Plank you said it all. You posted just before I hit submit.

[troppont]

It's not just OPEC it's also those stupid Speculators on the Stock markets who lost **** loads in the housing markets in the US that are causing most of the heart ache. Diesel in the top end is almost $2 litre.

[neville_nobody]

Personally if the cost of training doesn't go down or is subsidised I can't see there being a increase in pilot numbers Given you can do numerous other qualifications and get starting salaries in the $50 000+ range for less than half of the outlay aviation is going struggle.

[PlankBlender]

Nev I'm not sure we want an increase in pilot numbers.. the current "shortage" really only takes away the oversupply of low hour pilots that has persisted for far too long, and it will hopefully force the industry to pay salaries that don't belie the level of qualification, responsibility and outlay for training.

As a side-effect, it will make operators more efficient and remove a lot of bad apples from the game. Yes, prices for transport in/to remote areas will most likely go up, but that's unavoidable unless the government find effective ways to recognise and support aviation's crucial role in Australia.

There will always be people willing to sacrifice to make flying their job, and quite frankly, a high barrier of entry is not the worst thing when we're talking about people who might fly your family one day, or just share the sky somewhere near you or me :eek:

Now, I'm not saying money as a barrier will produce better pilots, but what I am saying is that by ensuring a high level of commitment (eg bonding yourself to a cadet program provider) we are more likely to weed out the casual and the dangerous early..

[neville_nobody]

hopefully force the industry to pay salaries that don't belie the level of qualification, responsibility and outlay for training.

Unfortunately this isn't occuring. Rex will park aircraft instead of finding more recruits, QFLink won't pay more. Cadet programs are still self funded. Unfortunately most airline executives only like free market economics when it works in their favour.

Agree though that by it being tough you do get a better product.:ok:

[HomeJames]

I could not agree more with Owen Stanley, could not agree more with Owen Stanley, Well done Plank Bender.

As an aside, have been in europe recently and the amount of cadetships being offerred is quite astounding, if only i had that magical is quite astounding, if only i had that magical right to work and JAA license...

Straight home and dont spare the horses

[sprocket check]

HomeJames:

Care to elaborate? I have the right to work in EU, a JAA is just a shi*tload of study away but not insurmountable.

sc

[KRUSTY 34]

Quote:

"Unfortunately this isn't occuring. Rex will park aircraft instead of finding more recruits,"

Very sad but true Nev. In fact it was the stated position of the REX Chief of staff at the one, and only, Pilot's meeting held in Sydney last August! Also because of REX's superior Debt/Equity ratio, and "trimming" of some of the less profitable routes, the company is on target to post an increase in profit this year! Go figure? Quite novel really. Less services, more pax, fewer senior pilots (wages bill down), and increased profits. Of course this is all based on a false asumption. The inexhaustable supply of cheap labour.

Despite the latest respite, it is only a matter of time before the games will again be afoot. It will be interesting to see just how far REX will go. My guess is they will start to worry once the few available eligible pilots are upgraded with no more left, or once the further reduction in services start to have a negative effect on profits.

Be interesting to see which occurs first. Be even more interesting to see how they deal with it?

[ules]

Theage.com.au
Last Updated: 1:58AM BST 21 Jul 2008

During the popes visit to Australia in celebration of world youth day,
Pope Benedict XVI anounces "pilot shortage no more" by electing members of the vatican to begin initial CPL training to put up with Australias growth and demand in the aviation industry.

:}

[ForkTailedDrKiller]

Look at what Dixwit said the other day. Quaintarse is laying off staff, including pilots, in the face of record profits. His intention is clear - its not to keep Quaintarse profitable, its to maintain record profits!

Dr :8

[tinpis]

Not long.

Qantas chief tips 100,000 aviation jobs will go - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/07/22/2310981.htm)

[PlankBlender]

tinpis, he would say that, wouldn't he? Re-read my post after reading Dixon's dribble, fits perfectly, doesn't it?

[AvEnthusiast]

I really don't know what's going on. There are people who are talking of pilot shortages and then there are poeple talking of furloughs and sheds off pilot jobs. what would wannabes do?

[Mstr Caution]

Dixon goes on further to say:


The work that Qantas has done to date means that we will avoid this dark destiny


MC:8

[tinpis]

Coming to an airline near you

Fuel prices worse than SARS, 9/11: Virgin - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/07/23/2311772.htm?section=justin)