Oil price US$80 by December 2008

[Fair.Pilot]

On 01-01-2008 the oil price was US$100.

But today on 12-07-2008 the oil price is US$145. This is a massive 45% increment! Is the world's demand for oil also up by 45%?

This is primary school mathematics.... the work of future traders/speculators or whatever devil you name it.


The only solution for this insane price is, some coward influential people eg

the President of US, UN Sec-General,OPEC Ministers, Economics gurus, Bill Gates?, and the media CNN,BBC,Al Jazeera, Reuters... to come out with the statement:

Oil Price US$80 by December

I bet the next day, the price will drop to US$120!

[Founder]

You should also consider that USD has dropped in value a lot since then... and continues to drop all the time...

[404 Titan]

Founder

Not true. While these figures are about month old they still give the true picture of what the USD is doing. The only real difference is the NZD which without checking is probably about 10% below its highs. Here’s some interesting facts about what has happened to the five high yielding currencies (AUD, NZD, GBP, CAD and EUR) I track on and have been trading in, in the last three years:

AUD
From the 29-3-06 to 7-6-08 it has appreciated 37.28% to the HKD/USD.

NZD
From the 28-6-06 to 27-2-08 it has appreciated 37.83% to the HKD/USD.
From the 27-2-08 to 11-6-08 it has depreciated 7.3% to the HKD/USD.

GBP
From the 28-11-05 to 8-11-07 it has appreciated 25.18% to the HKD/USD.
From the 8-11-07 to 11-6-08 it has depreciated 6.19% to the HKD/USD.

CAD
From the 13-6-05 to 7-11-07 it has appreciated 36.7% to the HKD/USD.
From the 7-11-07 to 11-6-08 it has depreciated 9.5% to the HKD/USD.

EUR
From the 16-11-05 to 22-4-08 it has appreciated 37.63% to the HKD/USD.
From the 22-4-08 to 11-6-08 it has depreciated 2.5% to the HKD/USD.

[SINGAPURCANAC]

I bet the next day, the price will drop to US$120!

You misssed a little bit but direction and trend was OK.
Congratulation.:D:D:D
Maybe it is time for you to leave your flight command and join Meril Lynch e.g.

[Fac6]

Price today is $124.10 I wonder if the airlines will start reducing some of the surcharges they set when it was up at $140.00+

I personally think by Christmas it will be around $105.00 as all the hype and speculation is now losing momentum.

Anyway what do I know? :ooh:

Crude Oil Price Forecast (http://www.oil-price.net/)


Interesting article on the page.

"Oil companies won't be building more refineries, because there won't be enough oil left to refine by the time new refineries could pay for themselves.
There hasn't been a new refinery built in the US since 1976. In 1982, there were 301 operable refineries in the U.S and they produced about 17.9 million barrels of oil per day. Today there are only 149 refineries, and they're producing 17.4 million barrels. This increase in efficiency is impressive but not a miracle. As with everything these outputs are carefully calculated to optimize profitability. Let me explain.
Truth be told, new refineries require tremendous financial commitments which take anywhere from 15 to 25 years to amortize. With record oil prices it would make perfect sense to invest in a few refineries today, except... for the lack of oil to be refined 20 years from now.
Trends have predicted that peak oil production, where the production of oil starts to decline, will be reached around 2007-2010. After that, there will be less and less oil to refine no matter where drillers look. In this context, building expensive new refineries does not make a lot of sense as existing ones will be sufficient to process whatever little oil is left. So forget about new refineries, except for a few in the northern midwest to process the heavy oil from Canada.

Crude oil is a finite resource more and more depleted. As such, an increasing demand put on this finite supply necessitates careful management in order to stretch its lifespan and profitability."

Also it's interesting to see that Iran has the world's second largest oil reserves of 136 gigabarrels If things kick off and real trouble starts with them soon, one dreads to think of what that would do to the price of oil.

[Chimbu chuckles]

Oil has retreated approximately $23 in the last week or so. An article I read this morning, but can't put my fingers on, showed that the credit crunch is bringing the futures traders undone big time and that a lot of the runup to $147/bbl was them trying to cash up and get out before they got bit. Well seems many of the biggest failed...I can't remember the exact number but one big name trader alone was out the door to the tune of over $250 million...his companies losses were over 2 billion from memory.

My heart bleeds for the guy:rolleyes:

The article made the very salient point that it is unknown how many more futures trading companies are in the same boat..like the subprime woes...no one knows where this futures trading liquidity crunch ends.

I hope they are wiped from the face of the earth.

Edit:

I found it

NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil prices shed nearly $4 Wednesday, tumbling below $125 a barrel for the first time since early June on growing fears that high prices and the weak economy are destroying demand.


Oil has now fallen to its lowest level since early June as investors look to be leaving the market.

Light, sweet crude for September delivery dropped $3.98 to settle at $124.44 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude's lowest finish since June 4. The August contract expired Tuesday at $127.95.

The U.S. Energy Department reported gasoline stockpiles jumped by 2.9 million barrels last week, far more than analysts surveyed by energy research firm Platts predicted. The decline in crude inventories was less than forecast.

"The market appears heavily concentrated on demand numbers all of a sudden," said Jim Ritterbusch, president of energy consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates. "These numbers continue to show big-time depreciation in gasoline demand."

Concerns that Hurricane Dolly might affect U.S. oil and natural gas output in the Gulf of Mexico dwindled as it made landfall near South Padre Island in Texas.

The Minerals Management Service reported that only about 4.7 percent of production -- about 60,000 barrels a day -- has been halted because of the storm.

A stronger dollar added to the pressure on crude prices.

As recently as a week and a half ago, oil seemed on a relentless march toward $150 a barrel. No longer. Prices have now fallen in six of the last seven sessions.

"The market's letting steam out," said Mark Pervan, a senior commodities strategist with ANZ Bank in Melbourne. "There's genuine reason to be taking profits in this market with the weak U.S. demand numbers."

Analysts said liquidity problems at oil and asphalt transportation and storage provider SemGroup LP may have helped trigger the recent sell-off. A number of the company's subsidiaries filed for reorganization under Chapter 11 bankruptcy rules in Delaware federal court Tuesday.

In the bankruptcy filing, the Tulsa, Oklahoma-based company described what it called a "severe liquidity crisis" caused by demands for massive amounts of more money from brokers to cover large bets it made on the futures market. Those demands grew increasingly tough to meet as energy prices soared and Wall Street's credit problems mounted.

On July 16, a day after oil prices began to tumble, the company transferred its trading account and recognized $2.4 billion in losses as it became clear it could not cover its trading positions. Co-founder and former President and CEO Thomas Kivisto owes about $290 million of that total.

"It turns out that the run-up in crude oil prices in June and early July had ... a lot to do with the squeeze on SemGroup's hedges," analyst and trader Stephen Schork said. "Now the only question is are there more 'SemGroups' lurking in the shadows?"

A threat by Nigeria's main militant group Wednesday to destroy major pipelines in the oil exporting country within 30 days did little to slow crude's decline. The group said in an e-mail statement it had not been part of an alleged $12 million payment to militants to protect pipelines.

In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures lost 12.8 cents to settle at $3.5501 a gallon, while gasoline futures shed 11.26 cents to settle at $3.0344 a gallon. Natural gas prices fell 27.9 cents to $9.788 per 1,000

[Sleeve_of_Wizard]

"""""""On 01-01-2008 the oil price was US$100.

But today on 12-07-2008 the oil price is US$145. This is a massive 45% increment! Is the world's demand for oil also up by 45%?

This is primary school mathematics.... the work of future traders/speculators or whatever devil you name it."""""""

If you learnt how to be a Speculator/ Futures trader, you'll know that it can be good if the price goes UP or DOWN.......... If you picked the right direction more often than not, you wouldn't be complaining about it.

[Flying Bagel]

With the likely US interest rate rise at the end of the year (Bernanke has implied as much), and Obama taking office (don't bet against it), the USD will rebound strongly. And you're seeing some of that sentiment entering the markets now. I think what remains to be seen is how many 'credit crunch' skeletons are left in the closet. At this point, I don't think anyone knows the answer to that.

But if the US reserve stockpile is sufficient for the onset of winter, the oil price will surely drop (and hopefully burst this commodities bubble and drag all the hedge funds down the toilet). That's unless if Bush decides to go blow up some nuclear reactors before he leaves... :oh: