Merged: Virgin Blue Share Price - how low can it go and for how long?

[priapism]

VB are in deep ****. I read where they have mortgaged an aircraft to raise cash. The interesting thing is the timing of the expansion of the 49% SQ owned Tiger Airways. SQ, as history tells, us were very keen to buy Ansett ( when there was something there to buy)! The short of the long was that Q.F successfully lobbied the Federal government to prevent this. Then it was all over red rover for the AN group.

There is no doubt in my mind that SQ is going to spend a bit of dough to start a bit of a price war putting VB under more pressure, either bankrupting them or putting themselves in a position that they have to be sold to inject capital and survive. By the look of it that won't take much.

VB have just committed to a very expensive trans Pacific experiment that is unlikely to yield any significant profit for a good while as NZ, QF will go hard to protect market share. I think it was DELTA? who indicated they would also join in the party.

The rights to fly trans Pacific from Australia's eastern seaboard is the jewel in the crown for SQ. They have wanted it for years and have the capital ,patience and smarts to see the way to get it is via Tiger. Virgin is vulnerable.

Virgin was handed 50% of the market on a platter when AN when tits up.
Since then it would have been hard not to make money. Now a real crisis is being faced and I really doubt that it has the management accumen to steer it successfully out of it.

As a survivor of the Ansett collapse I hope for the staff's sake that all they will have to endure is a change of ownership.

[greenslopes]

Priapism...........I have to agree with you, what a fcuk up.
This indicates the real capabilities of the senior mngmnt team at VB.
I remember thinking how on earth could Ansett go broke with a virtual duopoly. This VB blunder plainly shows that bad decisions sometimes compound themselves.
I feel dreadfully sorry for the employees working at VB who will pay the ultimate price for senior mngmnt inadequacies, yet the same mngmnt walk away with very well lined pockets.

[wirgin blew]

The ASX is at its lowest point in 5 years. Bigger companies than VBA are doing it tough.

The next 12 months will be ugly for the world economy not just a small airline with 31% of the Australian domestic market.

[greenslopes]

Agreed Wirgin but for instance 5/3/09 Vb share price dropped a further 4.7% whereas Qantas's rose by 4.9%.
Whilst not trumpeting the benefits of Q's business model, no one seems to see value in VB right now!

[KABOY]

There is little value when they are raising cash through asset sales which is only used to fund the current operation, not expanding it. Traditionally this has been used to fund expansion or fund dividends to shareholders when times are good!

This money is just being utilised to keep V OZ and VB flying in a dire situation globally, they didn't budget sufficiently for the Pacific.

[Skystar320]

The ASX is closing the lowest it has been in years... Billions are being wipped off companies, including everyone's super...

Just because they sold & leaseback three B737-800's doesnt give a hoot that it means that they need the cash because they are in 'dire straight' Everyone does it... Qantas with A330's, Virgin Blue with 737's and most European companies have done it.. Its common practise... as long as they put the funds to good use...

While it is sad to see that they posted a loss thanks to the set up with V Australia but... isnt like everyone posting losses, writing off huge debt?

[pylet]

While it is sad to see that they posted a loss thanks to the set up with V Australia but... isnt like everyone posting losses, writing off huge debt? Today 15:06

It doesn't matter what 'everyone' else (meaning other listed companies or private firms) is doing! The important issue here is that the QF Group, VB's clear competition, it still posting profits and profit forecasts, is one of only 3 airlines in the world with an investment grade credit rating, and is raising capital. So no, not everyone is posting losses, and the fact that QF is still profitable means they have more room to move to try and see through the next 12 - 18 months of a crap ecomonic and operating environment. The key has to be maintain market share and survive this period.

This should be, and no doubt is, a real concern for VBA.

I'm not blowing smoke up QF, just putting out there what is widely known.

[biton]

I think Qantas had better pray that VB survive because if Singapore increase their presence here, whether it be through Tiger or not, then Qantas is going to have a real battle on it's hands.

[Skystar320]

Qantas is one of the few airlines that are posting profits, whereas most other airlines are posting losses... look into Asia / America / Europe, low cost airlines are posting losses.

Yes it 'does' matter what other companies are doing, most of them the market value is sliding downwards, thanks to the 'economic' crisis.

Qantas to compare with VBA, is huge, operations are spread around to regional / domestic & international... They are the only ones with a good brand of business seats etc, have got already fully depreciable assets etc...

As I said, its a concern that VB posted a loss... the writing is not on the wall for VBA for a while...

If next financial performance they post even a bigger loss than yes, the ****e is going to get bigger and bigger.

[lowerlobe]

Yes it 'does' matter what other companies are doing
No it doesn't Skystar..it only matters what or how your operation and environment is going....

VB's only real competition is making a profit and that's what really matters...

VB don't even have 20c left per share and if this keeps going the banks and other creditors be asking questions very soon if not already....

biton is right...SIA will be looking at this very closely.The question is if VB is close to going under will the Gov step in with a bail out or let SIA take it over....

I know which one QF would prefer....

The Gov would be reluctant to give a bail out because as with the US once you bail out one company there are literally dozens more knocking on the door asking for the same kind of help...

Personally,I hope VB can trade out of this but it does look grim

[wirgin blew]

Does anyone know how you would go about de-listing a company? It is something that hasn't been discussed. Current market cap at around $216 million. Of that about 30% aren't traded as they are owned by Virgin Group (SRB) and BG.
Perhaps the BOC are interested? They were happy to buy and lease back 737's last week. Perhaps they will be willing to buy the company off the market and lease it back to BG?

:ok:

[greenslopes]

Wirgin, yu velly velly funny guy. You rike lice wid dat?

[Under Dog]

Kaboy
I think you have hit the nail on the head.Eventually that option will have all been used, then without out major business plan change the piggy bank become's EMPTY. Not that I would like to see Virgin bust but they better do something fast to turn around the rapid rate of cash burn.

The Dog

[denabol]

Far out. My plan to buy control of VBA at 0.05 cents is starting to look good again. Oh, and QAN at 20 cents.

In all seriousness, just about everything on the ASX is heading toward penny dreadful status, which is where the really lucky or clever always make their money in a stock market meltdown.

[horserun]

QF better hope that DJ goes under.

QFs biggest f**k up was not geting 777s. If (and thats a big if!) DJ get through this, when the world economies pick up, DJ will stick it to QF.

In a world of uncertainty, and high oil prices the 777 is the machine to have.

[43Inches]

I think it says it all that they geared for 20% expansion this year and are now looking at a reduction in service.

[Led Zeppelin]

Cash is by far the biggest issue for Virgin Blue. Sale and lease back may provide temporary protection, but when the business is trading at a loss, all that does is prolong the agony and further weaken the balance sheet in terms of equity. While the current capitalisation of ~ $ 200 m is not helpful, it roughly matches the trend of the market.

The balance between capacity reduction, break even, cash management, is extremely difficult to manage effectively and will be the ultimate test of the VB management team.

Considering the current trading climate and the latest financials, I seriously doubt whether VB on its own has the capacity to trade through this awful period.

Hope I'm proved wrong.

[airtags]

wirgen blue - a very tongue in cheek post
but with Godfrey rewriting the meaning of the term 'corporate goverance'
I think protection from creditors will be the order of the day as opposed to de-registration. - Still your idea would provide a very convenient way of getting away from some of the costly off-balance sheet liabilities that would eat up the treasury reserves if the cash flow was really squeezed.

VB are not alone as the economy will continue to dive - All operators will reduce capacity, revert to streamlined hub schedules and probably seek even more short cuts in the regulatory regimes to save money. This is the key area that every pilot and crew member must watch closely as they will be the precipes that will haunt us in the future. (eg Jungle Jets with 3 crew instead of 1 crew per door, fatigue provisions etc.,...dare I mention the life rafts!!!!)

Contrary to the critics, the BOC leaseback was a shrewed move - aside from raising a bit cash to pay a few V debts, it has (further) lessened the appeal of VB to potential predators and backed shareholders into a narrow alley where they really cannot turn around - I would expect the same to be done with the village and the other limited assets.

Interestingly, the deviation between QF & DJ capital city website fares is probably the smallest it has ever been which says a lot about price segment elasticity - would love to see the pax profile trends for both carriers. (Maybe some of the cabin Crew might like to post their observations on this?)

In short - expect the share price game of limbo to go lower but I think the numbers to watch are not on the ASX boards but are the numbers of bums of seats. (operators might even need to rethink the traditional ASK formulas) - these will increasingly be the new performance benchmarkers.

AT
:E

[B772]

As at the close of trading today these are the comparative figures for VB and QF.

VB QF

Today's loss 9.7% 1.6%
Market Cap $216M $2,924M
Debt/Equity Ratio 72.7% 160.6%
Dividend Yield 9.8% 15.5%
Franking Nil 100%

[tsalta]

Debt to Equity ratios

VB - 482%

QF - 298%

[SIDS N STARS]

Not sure if it fits in here, but i couldn't find the other "new routes" thread

Anyhow, there are a few new routes in the pipeline that even the the VA staff have yet to be briefed on, which might affect the VB share price.

They are:

SYD - Centrelink Office
MEL - Centrelink Office
BNE - Centrelink Office

No pax, no freight. Just employees looking for a payrise.

[im sparticus]

B772, on what date will vba be paying a dividend yielding 9%

[coaldemon]

Wow Sids & Stars what a great post. I am always amazed at the number of Vultures that want to circle any airline they don't like. Being in the Eastern state sort of gets you ready for the 3rd world scenario I expect. Certainly the wages are back in the 80s. With Air NZ a state run enterprise one can feel superior (although it should have gone down in 2001 because of so many reasons). Enjoy your command on first officer rates.....................:mad:

[ozangel]

Have little to contribute other than...

I expect to lose my house on the count of BGs incompetance. His booming grin and constant BS just adds insult to injury, and I can only wish that what goes around, comes around his (and his incompetant cronies) way.

[SIDS N STARS]

Coaldemon,

Where did i say i didn't like V Oz?

How do you know i'm not a V Oz employee??

Good luck to you and anyone else who is unfortunate enough to be flying in aeroplane with you @ the controls.

[inandout]

Yes HK is next on the list for late 09 at the moment may change, with two more near firm routes after that in the pipe line, all depends on the economy . Virgin pilots inters start next week and loads not bad, including freight. Turbine blades on all aircraft are being fine tuned for :}

[wirgin blew]

airtags - Jungle jets already have 3 CC as the max seats is 104 (3x36=108). They are considering trying to get it down to 2 on the 170's and at the moment due to GEC/GFC could possibly get the Fed Govt to agree due to the strain in the economy.
I would also imagine that they will be lobbying pretty hard to get the ratio of 1-36 changed for good. The rest of the world copes with 1-50 and if they could get something like that through then they could save about 25% of the CC wages bill which is only chump change at the moment but it gets the costs down even further at the expense of safety.

As far as funding goes VB won't go to the market for cash as stated by SRB - he doesn't want share dillution. What will happen when QF go back for another $500 million in 6 months time.
VB is at least getting there costs down as low as they can. QF on the other hand is just asking shareholders to bail out the company. There will be a limit on that. Especially if they then turn around and pay massive bonuses like Pacific Brands.

[Capt Kremin]

Discounted fares are now the domain of Jetstar and Tiger Airways, writes Clive Dorman. The flood of cheap discount air fares in Australia has slowed to a trickle and one player, Virgin Blue, has all but officially ruled itself out of the ultra-cheap fares business.
Massive losses caused by last year's surge in jet fuel prices, followed by the contraction in consumer demand caused by the world economic crisis, have left just one big player, Jetstar, in Australia's discount domestic air-fare business, challenged only by the niche low-cost carrier Tiger Airways, which flies to limited destinations from Melbourne and Adelaide.
To use its own terminology, Virgin Blue is "hoarding cash" after its first big loss in Australia - more than $100 million in the second half of last year - and says it can't afford to continue to throw away seats for next to nothing.
Virgin Blue, which has switched its focus in the past three years from backpackers to business flyers, has little left in the kitty after spending $60 million on the launch of its new long-haul airline, V Australia. It has begun flying between Sydney and Los Angeles and will soon link LA with Brisbane and Melbourne.
After introducing a flood of new domestic seats and routes in the past year, Virgin Blue is putting the brakes on its expansion and will begin cutting back its network and frequencies. The airline has invested heavily in the perks required to attract business travellers, such as valet parking, lounges, a frequent-flyer scheme and live in-flight television, but that market has been hit by the global economic crisis.
Even though Virgin Blue still thinks of itself as a low-cost carrier, seats on Virgin Blue are about 20 per cent dearer to operate than those of its once-chief rival, Jetstar.
"At the moment we're very happy to discount but the discounted fares out there will be difficult to sustain with the level of capacity that we have," Virgin Blue's chief executive officer, Brett Godfrey says.
In February, meanwhile, Tiger Airways grounded between a third and half of its regular schedules from Melbourne, creating rumours that the loss-making low-cost carrier was on its knees. But Tiger boss Tony Davis denied the rumours and accused Qantas of starting them. Davis said the flight cutbacks were "seasonal reductions" and its full schedule has been restored. Tiger opened its second base in Adelaide last week and has launched a raft of new services from the South Australian capital.
Jetstar, meanwhile, is adding new flights from Perth and taking over Qantas's domestic operation in New Zealand.
"We are viewing the current environment as a glass half-full," says Jetstar spokesman Simon Westaway. "We think consumer spending power is going to improve if people maintain their jobs. We think that travel is going to remain a part of many people's household budgets."


I don't know if this is premature but I hope for everyone sakes that VB people start getting good news soon. The absolute last thing this country needs is a repeat of the AN debacle and the shock waves to the industry that followed.

[priapism]

amen to that!

[RedTBar]

We think consumer spending power is going to improve if people maintain their jobs. We think that travel is going to remain a part of many people's household budgets."
What is this guy smoking.Every 5 minutes we hear someone in the media telling us how bad things are getting and that makes people cut back spending even further.The media's doom and gloom reports makes GD's doom and gloom speeches sound like a celebration.
if you are worried about losing your job the last thing you are going to do is book a holiday.Things are going to be tight for a while yet until everyone gets bored with the media and starts spending again and the cycle will start all over again.
How long that takes is anyones guess.

[markontop]

Lets not rewrite history- AN debacle spawned VB and pay for endorsement etc. VB benefitted, we as a pilot group didn't. Who knows what's around the corner? :sad: Remember BG saying AN's demise was good for the travelling public and we are keeping the air fare. Not so fair now?
I guarantee the next will be the "dirty tricks" being undertaken by VB's competitors. Tongue in cheek. Standard Virgin response. Except VB aren't the underdogs anymore. Success can be a curse.

[Capt Kremin]

Mark, VB were around before AN went under. Whilst the collapse of AN spared QF the worst of the post 9/11 trauma, it put a large number of Australian pilots out of work and willing to take whatever was offerred for a chance to stay in Australia. It is the reason why Jetstar was able to expand and undermine the only airline left with decent T&C's, namely Qantas mainline.
The same thing may be about to happen again and it won't be good for any VB, QF or Jetstar pilots.
I don't want to give them ideas, but you don't have to look far on this forum to see the possibilities.

[markontop]

Thanks C K, my point was, yes I realize VB were around before AN folded but they took pay for endoresment, uniforms etc to the market place when the industry was short of pilots. So before 9/11 the rot had started. Jetstar only continued it. People did not have to work for them (VB) to stay in Aus. At the time QF, AN and even Kendell were recruiting.
So as for VB and the threat of reduced T&C's may I say with respect "you started it".
May I rephrase the AN disaster emboldened VB making pay as you start the new status quo. Supply and demand.

[B772]

im sparticus. The info supplied by Aspect Financial Pty Ltd. I assume they are expecting a 1.75c dividend later in the year. Another report suggests no dividends from VB before 2012 at the earliest.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
tsalta. Where did you obtain your Debt/Equity ratio's for VB and QF ?. Are
you suggesting VB are close to insolvent ?

[airtags]

wirgen - my point exactly - whether it's 1:36 or 1:50 still comes down to the important bit in an emergency and as you stated, in the case of the Embraers it's 3 crew to evac 4 doors & overwings.........
....... and of course the push to reduce on other types. VB is of course not alone in this regard and I'm sure QF would love to dump R2X on the 737 fleet.

We all need to make sure that the current downturn is not used as a polies' panama flag for operators to leverage unfavourable workplace reforms and dispensations.

As you said the saving of dropping one cabin crew is chump change but the motives are much more than a saving of a few immediate dollars.
All staff should help streamline the business and look for efficiency savings - but let's really protect those things that are sometimes seen by management as expendable 'soft' safety contingencies. In the case of of the passenger cabin, I firmly believe minimum safety calls for one crew member for each primary door - and the successful evac incidents seem to prove this position correct.

Public confidence = positive revenue (sales) & a higher liklihood of the yeild on shares heading skyward (or at least getting off the ground)

AT

[tsalta]

B772,

I calculated both ratios from the half yearly reports from QF and VB.

I'm not suggesting VB are insolvent. I was abstractly pointing out how the figures given in glossy brochures and directors presentations need to be read very closely to ascertain their true meaning.

The real information comes from the black and white financial statements, not the colour brochure. This is because the brochures are not signed to accounting standards and are open for 'spin' whereas the financial reports are signed off by auditors. I rarely believe anything a company prints in colour.

For instance, some one might read 'Gearing Adjusted Net Debt/Adjusted Net Debt Plus Equity - 66%' in the glossy and assume it to be the company's Debt/Equity ratio. Well, how wrong could you be as the debt/equity is in the vicinity of 450%.

One test for solvency is the Assets/Liabilities ratio which is completely different to Debt/Equity. Although, one ratio is a massive oversimplification for the determination of solvency.

Debt/Equity = Total Liabilities / Equity

tsalta

[abc1]

Tsalta, Your analogy is good but I have to disagree that they are insolvent. By reconing then where would have QF been today had Alco had their way? No one is immune in the world of Venture Capitalism.

VB are maintainig their repayments, bankers arent too nervous just as yet because of their share price alone otherwise their would have lent their shares for short selling. These guys employ and we shall hope some brains(questionable as proven) that they have a stop/loss margin before they start with the cutting of the umbilical cord. What management did/do with their earnings is another story. They say they invested in expansion. They are trying to dress up VB as and new world carrier hoping that someone like a sovereign wealth fund would take notice of their great idea. Hope the dice will roll for them.
Before you write VB off '' insolvent '' just as yet, and consider the basics, VB have a market share, a brand, a network and positive cash flow. What would prevent SQ from buying VB? That's another debate. But if they did, they can make VB a direct competitor to QF by making VB a proper carrier and VB can offer the same service at a lower cost base, and since they have Tiger then they can battle the bottom out with Jetstar. I can only guess who will win if I can put it that wayWhat would happen to QF then? So in this world none is certain, and by no means is VB another Ansett. Ansett was too expensive for anyone but they had to sell it to ANZ just to stop SQ coming in.(another debate) I would bet my bottom dollar that once SQ dispenses with Virgin Atlantic for which Lufti is so keen on, then VB would pose a great proposition for the Asian market consolidation, and at a bargain price.And it would make sense unless everyone in Australia can swallow their pride and amalgamate the industry into one big company for the sake of Labor's mantra(and everyone else's on here)'' Aussie jobs for Aussies'' , ''buy Australian'' etc, as at the moment protectionism is on the rise once again despite the''Globalisation'' benefits perpetuated by the only ones that stood to benefit form its introduction in the fist place=Venture capitalists not you or me. Just another view.

[Quokka]

I'm not suggesting VB are insolvent.

...and this is the fundamental belief that one must have decided when making a decision to invest in VB, or any other company for that matter.

If you believe that VB is, or will become, insolvent then you must not invest in VB or invest only that amount which you are prepared to gamble away to nothing on a punt that the share price might rise for no apparent reason.

If you believe that VB is and will remain a solvent company then the next question to ask is to what extent does VB have the potential to add value to the company to such an extent as to be reflected in a substantial increase in the share price over time.

...and then ask yourself, and this is a monumentally difficult question to answer, over what period of time to you predict that the share price will rise to reflect your predicted increase in the value of the company.

What follows is a test of research, logic, faith in one's logic and emotional intelligence (the fear factor).

abc1 could be very close to the mark. Temasek Holdings were actively buying shares in VB late last year.

[tsalta]

Does anyone have a Babelfish? I need one to translate abc1's gibberish into English.

Once again abc1, WTF?

tsalta

[greenslopes]

tsalta........Gold, pure gold............babelfish(brilliant). In fact I wish I had a Babelfish for all spin put out by QF&VB.

[LetsGoRated]

abc1, were you drunk when you wrote that? What the hell are you on about?

[Keg]

... minimum safety calls for one crew member for each primary door - and the successful evac incidents seem to prove this position correct.

A slight digression but the Hudson River A320 prang only had one cabin crew down the back for the two doors. A passenger got to one of the doors that was underwater and cracked it open. It resulted in the aircraft flooding down the back more quickly. I wonder if that issue will be covered off in the accident report.

[airtags]

well said Keg
- perhaps a digression to some however I would say 'on topic' given that the baseline for any airline's profitable operation is the fact that pax confidence and market confidence are not mutually exclusive.
- whether it is confidence in the safety of those onboard, or the confidence for your cash that's paid for advance tickets - without it, things can go very wobbly, very quickly.

(qualifier: confidence reference above though should not be confused with Godfrey & co's hypoxic like 'over-confidence' which clearly is doing more damage than good)

sidebar:
actually the Hudson excursion had another similarlity to VB in that it did not carry liferafts either .............that (now well expired & unjustified) dispensation just keeps getting a rolling continuance eh!

AT :E

[VBA Engineer]

On a 737 I woud rather not have it than have one of you trolley dollies trying to carry it down the aisle without firing it.

Time to get over all this self importance stuff I reckon.

[airtags]

a trolley dolly ????
hardly .........in any event, that's a pretty sad attitude for an engineer - even worse for an (alleged) VB engineer to put sh*t on your own cabin crew. Without them in the cabin we don't have pax and without pax ...we don't have a flying job ...and that is likely to leave you out in the cold too.

I'm so glad to know that with such a poor attitude regarding safety that you're not signing the log on my aircraft. - Maybe you should also change your name to Tony Bullimore - he didn't think much of taking risks either.

As for getting back on track.........suggest you try re-reading the thread it is all about the factors that affect the perception of VB which in turn directly affects the share performance.

AT
:rolleyes:

[Mstr Caution]

I too recall hearing the Singapore Airlines "white knight" theory for Ansett.

Ansett had marketshare, brand, network & cashflow at the time.

The Singapore investment was going to create a formidable competitor to QF.

It made so much sense, Ansett where already flying leased 747-300's on the international operations.

And with those 12 * 744's on the way, Singapore was going to use Ansett as the vehicle to the pacific run.

"White Knight" come back, Australia needs you.

[Dehavillanddriver]

Airtags,

with the exception of trans tasman ops, as far as I am aware QF dont carry liferafts either.

[B772]

Mstr Caution. AN were using ex SQ B747-400's for some of their International services at the time of their collapse. The ex SQ B747-300's had been returned to SQ for some time.

[VBA Engineer]

Anyone who reckons that carrying supernumerary cabin crew, and lugging life rafts around on all domestic flights is a method to increase passenger numbers has rally lost the plot I think.

Best get back to dealing out those pringles and chicken wraps me thinks!!!

Oh and keep that dark re-growth in check too please, not too keen on the GT stripe down the middle thanks darls......

[Section28- BE]

Yes, but there is the thing- when the rest of us had/and do operate ETOPS standards- be it over water or just toddling across to Perth, it does matter, (not that we go to Perth)- we do maintain those things- but sure it is probably parse'.

Being an Engineer- does the Company hold and have the capacity to maintain ETOPS standards- can you track Engs & APU's to an airframe- along with their trend burns????????????- their was a time.............

Also, yes at the moment it is 1:36- if you (being Australia) get to the point of harmonisation, like PNG and New Zealand, then you do reach the world standard of 1:50- I think "they" call that Worlds Best Practice, or some such- Brett likes that stuff- or so I'm given to understand..........

Or you could just dedicate the Perth airframes and the fuel burn via "Forest" (I think it is???)

Not that I know...........:E:E:E

[Mstr Caution]

B772 - AN were using ex SQ B747-400's for some of their International services at the time of their collapse. The ex SQ B747-300's had been returned to SQ for some time.


No arguement from me there!

My previous post was circa 1999.

Ansett had taken delivery of the 3 * B747-300 in 1994.

In 1999 while still operating the leased B747-300 from SQ, employees at AN saw the "White Knight" Singaporeans as an opportunity to take the business forward. AN where reducucing costs via the Business recovery program, had an interim profit 98/99 of A$61.6M & 99/00 was looking promising finacially.

Asia Times: News Corp. grounds Singapore Airlines' Ansett deal (http://atimes.com/oceania/AF12Ah03.html)

In 99 the 747-300 where returning to SQ & replaced by 747-400 which were operating at the time of the collapse in 2001.

Reading comments such as the following, is somewhat akin to deja' vous.


.....hoping that someone like a sovereign wealth fund would take notice of their great idea. Hope the dice will roll for them. Before you write VB off '' insolvent '' just as yet, and consider the basics, VB have a market share, a brand, a network and positive cash flow. What would prevent SQ from buying VB? That's another debate. But if they did, they can make VB a direct competitor to QF by making VB a proper carrier and VB can offer the same service at a lower cost base.


MC

[No1Dear]

$0.185 Jeeeeeez
Won't be long and I could afford to take them over myself

[VBA Engineer]

VB doesn't fly ETOPS

[VH-Cheer Up]

Worth a read...

Virgin's revenge or Branson's bubble? - SmartCompany | Business news, trends and ideas for Australia?s small and medium business owners and entrepreneurs (http://122.100.10.46/wealth/virgins-revenge-or-bransons-bubble.html)

----
VH-CU

[dizzylizzy]

So I've just seen photos of the first flight to LAX exSYD... Bernadette from Qantas was onboard as was Sally from Jetstar...

Is it just me or is it childish that they have DJ employees dressed up and making a mochery?

I have the pics to prove, happy to email away.

[Wod]

So I've just seen photos of the first flight to LAX exSYD... Bernadette from Qantas was onboard as was Sally from Jetstar...

Is it just me or is it childish that they have DJ employees dressed up and making a mockery?



My guess is that most passengers were staff or invited guests, so a bit of self-indulgence is fine.

They always take a risk, though, with the determinedly cheerful young thing approach. Doesn't work for a grumpy old man like me; and didn't work when my wife took a trio of 80 year olds BNE-SYD for their sibling's funeral.

Their original target market was young and immortal; across the Pacific they are now targetting more serious folk. Time will tell whether the in-cabin pizazz needs toning down.

[Dehavillanddriver]

VBA Engineer - no sure which VBA you work for but the one in Australia has 120 minutes on the B737, operates etops flights every day and has done so for quite some time

[VBA Engineer]

I know very well which VB I work for and I can assure you they do NOT fly ETOPS and haven't for some time.

Do your homework.

[Dr Zoydberg]

I think you will find VB flys EDTO, not ETOPS

[Dehavillanddriver]

OK VBA Engineer - you got me - they fly EDTO not ETOPS - but you knew exactly what I meant.

[Nil defects]

Did I read correctly yesterday that VB shares now down to 18 cents.

[SOPS]

Nil Defects...last quote .185 cents, so yes you are correct

[vertical offset]

How low can it go? $0.00

[wirgin blew]

I would imagine that at or around 10c it would be in a trading halt whilst things were sorted out. I don't think the board would sit and watch whilst it went to 1c which is the lowest it could trade at.
Looking at the ASX top 300 yesterday in the Fin Review. VBA is still around position 250 or 260 on market cap even though the share price is so low. There are plenty of other listed companies struggling along as well.
The share prices aren't really a good indication of how companies are going at the moment as the demand for shares is off. People would rather hide there money under the bed whilst they wait for the GEC to finish.
Those selling shares are either scared or retiring and are getting out to take whatever cash they can and locking in a loss or those who are cutting back in every area to keep the family home due to margin lending.
Scary and uncertain times for everyone.

[skyshow]

Anybody read the small atricle on Virgin Blue in the Financial Times yesterday?

It said that Virgin Blue expect to break even next year (but this excludes V Australia costs only).

So does this mean (due to their cost saving initiatives that help compensate for falling passenger demand) they expect $0 profit/loss minus what ever V Australia loses? If so at least they're not making a loss from the flying domestically? Wonder how much V Australia will lose? Aren't they now, due to the GEC, expecting 4 years until they break even from start up? After this GEC I'm sure it will be a success, especially with more code-sharing on the way. Just have to see the recession through though which is the '$64000 question'. How much has Virgin Blue openly got in the bank?

[Nil defects]

Virgin Blue's stock suffers in weak key markets.

Steve Creedy, Aviation writer | March 10, 2009
Article from: The Australian

VIRGIN Blue shares reached a low of 18c yesterday after the airline sector was hit by signs of weakening demand in key overseas markets, including the US.

Shares in Australia's No.2 carrier showed no sign of pushing back above the 20c level and closed unchanged at 18.5c. Qantas shares fell 5.5c to $1.42.

The poor showings came after statistics on Friday revealed that 2 per cent fewer Australians travelled overseas in January.

Overall arrivals rose 6.4 per cent but key markets continued to weaken, with arrivals from Japan down 33.4 per cent and the US falling 9.3 per cent.

Outbound business travel also fell by 24.3 per cent in January, the lowest level since April 2003, although leisure travel rose 4 per cent.

There were also some signs that growth in short-haul overseas travel, while still up 4 per cent in January, was slowing.

At least one analyst believes these conditions will favour Virgin over Qantas.

Credit Suisse notes the smaller airline has relatively low exposure to long-haul travel and should continue to benefit from the relative strength of short-haul business travel.

But Virgin shares, which traded for $2.80 as recently as 2007, have continued to slip since the airline last month reported an interim net loss after tax of $101.4 million and a 65 per cent fall in underlying net profit after tax (NPAT) to $39.9 million,

While the current share price is below analysts' targets of 27c to $1.20, there are mixed views on what to do with the stock.

A Bloomberg survey shows recommendations include two buys, a sell, an underperform, an outperform and a hold.

The Centre for Asia-Pacific Aviation yesterday said Virgin's shares had fallen by more than a third since the beginning of the year because of "relentless pressures" at home and internationally.

It cited last month's comments by chief executive Brett Godfrey that Virgin was facing an exceptionally challenging and unprecedented operating environment.

"The entry of V Australia on the Pacific route is confronting severe headwinds as demand slips and competitor Qantas cuts its lowest fares to about a third of the pre-V Australia announcement levels," the Sydney-based aviation think-tank said.

"The situation is not helped by a need for the restructuring of the carrier's current shareholding, where Virgin Group holds a veto-controlling 25.5 per cent and is unlikely to withdraw at current price levels."

[wirgin blew]

I find it interesting that VB wont tell the market how much they got for their 737s they just sold to the Chinese Bank BOC.

Virgin Blue leases back new 737s - Brett Godfrey, chief executive of the Brisbane-based carrier, flagged the arrangement when he announced the first-half loss last week.

He said then that an asset realisation program involving freehold property and the sale and lease-back of aircraft also raise over $150million.

Geoff Easdown - Herald Sun

March 03, 2009 12:00am


So lets say $150 million to add to the $526 million reported at half year.
It gives some more breathing space but its like taking your wifes jewellery to the pawn shop.
Desperate times.

[TBM-Legend]

your assumptions on the 4 BOC 737's are wrong. I would suggest that VB raised nothing by selling these aircraft as one was not "owned" but rather financed via some other bank - they might have realised a few $$$ but deposits on leases have to be paid too which are held until the aircraft are handed back. The other 3 are simply VB handing over their purchase rights to BOC as lessee. VB probably used the deposits held by Boeing as the deposits for the leases. These deals are done all the time all over the world. Typically airlines including QF have a mix of leased and "owned" [meaning funded by some bank consortium] aircraft. Not many pay cash ever...:bored:

[Dale Hardale]

The conversion from purchase to lease often occurs. It may not in itself release large amounts of cash, but could have a positive tax advantage (varies country to country).

My understanding is that Virgin's cash position is limited due to finance guarantees which effectively restrict access to "cash in the bank".

In other words, the business as a going concern really needs to be cash flow positive and that includes VA as well.

If it's not ( and that is almost certainly the case right now), then it's only a matter of time.

I wouldn't place too much emphasis on the share price in such a turbulent market. What is important are the company fundamentals and cash reserves.

[TBM-Legend]

DH is correct as it is all about cashflow. If its positive = good, negative = not good because you're into reserves and tapping lines of credit etc. Tax effectiveness is an accounting issue. Survival is cash...:confused:

[Bo777]

So if VBs in dire straits, whats the time frame till insolvency and is there any prospective saviours?

[slice]

Bo777 - I think some posters are getting a tad excited with the doom and gloom scenarios they are painting. That said there are a tough couple of years ahead but as the domestic operation seems to be basically holding its own by reducing capacity, the big issue for the group is V Aus. On the one hand it is just about the worst time to start these Pacific services, however one thing that seems to be overlooked is that V really only have to try to grab a relatively small portion of United / QFs market share. Whether they succeed or not remains to be seen - QF may respond by crushing the yield to maintain market share or it may not. There is also word of expanding PB routes into SE Asia via Darwin a la Jetstar - this I guess spreads the risk a bit. I understand DPS is going very strongly (PER up to daily soon) so this might encourage expansion that way.

As for the share price, well that might get some big player interested and that changes everything. I doubt that it will go completely insolvent but if V Aus becomes the black hole of legend then we may see the whole show wind up less than half the size it is now.

Remember this is Pprune Dununda - the Jerry Springer show of internet aviation.:E

[tsalta]

11:45 AM, March 16, 2010

Nostradamus, errr............tsalta

[629bus]

Im starting to hear talk up here in HK about VB and their current position. Is the situation down there really looking that shaky that they possibly won’t be around in 6 months? IF so this will be a very sad day in Aviation, a lot of mates looking for jobs. Don’t wish that on anyone……
:ugh::(

[porch monkey]

Just the usual pprune experts. That's why they're pilots and not financial advisors or accountants.......

[sthaussiepilot]

Yep, VB actually has a pretty strong position, they are well liked (mostly) they offer cheap (ish) fares, they have a good solid number of aircraft/ assets... and they usually keep the PAX and Employess relatively happy...

I think VB could come out well from this downturn

[Section28- BE]

At around noon they were trading at 15c, on a huge volume of a bit over 9 million.

Rgds
S28- BE

[Out there]

sounds like someone is bailing out

[Section28- BE]

I'd reckon......- will be interesting to see if it/what comes up in the announcements going forward.

S28- BE

[7378FE]

That said there are a tough couple of years ahead but as the domestic operation seems to be basically holding its own by reducing capacity

Restarting MEL-DRW & v.v
&
Adding PER-DRW & v.v :ok:

Effective 27/28 April 2009

7378FE

[Getzo]

tsalta, you a way too generous with your prediction.:hmm:
Bring your date foreward by 6 months and your in the ball park.:eek:

G

[Quokka]

First Light (http://www.kitco.com/ind/maund/mar092009.html)

[halas]

And copper is lower than it was ten days ago.

Equal to what it was a month ago.

Lower than three months ago.

Your point is?

halas

PS: With no one buying and speculators allowed to run stupid, what do expect?
My prediction is down!

[RYAN TCAD]

Lookout - potential buyer about. (Hope it's not REX!) REX UR DAY!!!

[The Stooge]

And what if it is, a great achievement for a regional airline to buy out a major. On the flip side of the coin we all grizzle about LKH but you have to say he is a shroud business man.

[Section28- BE]

Article ex the SMH site re: ASX Query of 12 March 09- ref: Price and Volume

Virgin Blue can't explain share crash

March 13, 2009 - 11:52AM
Budget airline Virgin Blue says it cannot explain the recent crash in its share price, other than reasons such as market volatility and the global financial crisis.
Responding to a query from the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), Virgin Blue said it had no reason to believe its operating profit for the year to June 30 would vary by more than 15% from earlier guidance.
Australia's second biggest carrier also said it had no reason to think that any material abnormal or extraordinary profit would be recorded, other than as previously disclosed.
Virgin Blue said apart from the current market volatility it was not aware of any reasons that would explain the fall in its share price.
"The company is not aware of any other explanation for the price change and increase in volume in the securities, other than the current market volatility and economic uncertainty,'' it said in a statement on Friday.
"There is no reason to think that there may be a change in the operating profit so that the figure would vary from previous guidance by more than 15%.''
The ASX questioned Virgin Blue's share price drop from 28 cents on 25 February to a low of 15 cents on March 12.
The airline's shares were up 1.5 cents, or 9.1%, to 18 cents, as the broader market powered ahead.
AAP

[TheShadow]

Well lucky old me knows a bit more than everybody else (apparently) on this thread - so I've bought up big-time at 15cents per share.
It might take a few years but the upside potential is quite a few hundred percent.
That's one advantage of knowing just a little more than the market seemingly does. Not insider trading, it's just that i know someone that knows someone - and that someone has access to game-plans and process. If you think Ryanair exercises native cunning, just "watch this space" in respect of VB's future directions.

Virgin Blue doesn't know why? Yeah, right. Watch the buy-up volumes in the very near future.

[Bluebottle]

"Not insider trading, it's just that i know someone that knows someone......" now how often have I seen those words in stock market chat forums? :hmm:

[Spikey21]

Well lucky old me knows a bit more than everybody else (apparently) on this thread - so I've bought up big-time at 15cents per share.
It might take a few years but the upside potential is quite a few hundred percent.
That's one advantage of knowing just a little more than the market seemingly does. Not insider trading, it's just that i know someone that knows someone - and that someone has access to game-plans and process. If you think Ryanair exercises native cunning, just "watch this space" in respect of VB's future directions.

Virgin Blue doesn't know why? Yeah, right. Watch the buy-up volumes in the very near future.

"When the shoeshine boy has share tips then the party is over" - Joe Kennedy 1929

[oldhasbeen]

Well , Shadow, you obviously don't know more than most. Otherwise you wouldn't be buying shares in an airline!!!

[TheShadow]

Those who can recognize upside value potential at the perigee of bear-market decline always stand to make the big dough.

perigee: the point in the orbit of a heavenly body, esp. the moon, or of an artificial satellite at which it is nearest to the earth.

As long as "nearest the earth" doesn't involve a grounding due to a fiscal miscalculation, I feel confident that VB will deliver over time. VB has quite a reasonable management team. Lay-offs and route thinning are just signs of the times and "static" obscuring the real background. All the substantive fundamentals of a successful operation are still in evidence at VB.
So laugh all you like.

[greenslopes]

Shadow... sorry to burst your bubble, but the VB shares have not dropped to 15c............ so check your share certificate. You may have bought shares at 15c but they certainly weren't VB's.

Turkey!

[TheShadow]

VBA.AX: Basic Chart for VIRGIN BLU FPO - Yahoo!7 Finance - Share Prices, Charts, News and more (http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=VBA.AX&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=)

Happy to accept your humiliating retraction.

Study the fundamentals and stop following the happy herd.....

[TheShadow]

Jim Irwin
The upper side of that three factored range.

If they do go lower I shall buy more, what's more....... in fact lots more.

I've been down this road before - and that's precisely why I feel comfortable travelling it again.

It's just part of a much wider portfolio - so if VBA goes to the wall, it won't matter a lot in the larger scheme of things - from a personal point of view.

[greenslopes]

Didn't realize they had dipped so low......there you go. I agree the fundamentals of VB are good however V Oz is a millstone round VB's neck. The sooner it is cut loose the sooner the share price will bounce back...oh and a credible replacement for BG. Accountants are great at cutting costs but not so good at value adding.
This upturn in the markets is a false peak, within three months the market will drop and keep dropping for a very long time....I do however hope I'm wrong.

Good luck Shadow..

[TheShadow]

An honourable submission Greenslopes. Thank you.

If you knew who I was, you'd probably rush out and buy $20K worth of VBA.
Don't complain or be anxious about BG. He's a solid citizen with a sound game-plan and an apt track record .

I don't expect to become a shadow of my former self notwithstanding what may or may not happen to VBA (or VOz). But I do like what I see and hear. It's not unlike a boat being tossed upon stormy waters. As long as its watertight compartments remain intact, once the waters calm it can be bailed out, hoist sails and proceed upon its merry way once again. Stock-market history is replete with such instances of apparent near death and virgin rebirth.

Sometimes I just find such attractive investments irresistible. The last time I got badly burnt was the Atlas Fund in 75. I took advice from a friend who I later found was touting the fund for a commission. It was at that point that I resolved to in future do (and act upon) my own research..... only.
.

[wirgin blew]

Now that Etihad and QF are getting cosy would another Middle Eastern Carrier be interested in more of a presence in the Pacific. The uniform colours are very similar and the bargain basement entry price would be hard to look past at the moment.

[porch monkey]

Hey Petticoat, couple of points. Pays to read the fine print, (did you?), they could have told you to F@ck off for the last 6 to 9 months and come back when it was all up and running, and the reason that nobody from VB was interested before was simply the T's and C's were ****e. The only thing that has changed is that now it could be take it or find another job. Although, you know, it is very convenient now that the financial crisis has made it easy to fill those spots now, far be it from me to say BG is cunning enough to utilise the crisis to his own ends.

BTW, read the Vb eba and see what deals were made. You might be surprised.

[abc1]

Nothing but arbitrary posts.

By the time Aus gets into a recession the world's worst affected economies would have turned around.
Fact, Aus seems to be the last to always catch up as shown in your posts.(which is in Aus's favor)Hence your backing up with links to websites.

The Aus reserve bank is holding rates at?Thats right.So there is more room to try and stimulate the economy.Should the need be. And by the time Aus needs to drop rates to 0.5% as in other economies, the upswing would have started. Aus in not in the same league as the UK, USA or the EURO, its a different economy and has a different market. Say,20 million people at 3% rates or nearly 1.0 billion at 0.5%, which one would take more of an effect if they each spent a $1 each?

Investors only know what their brokers tell them hence the large daily variations. If brokers were portent, then they by god wouldn't have encouraged margin lending as a means of portfolio diversification(just like the flying Eddie from the ABC sham).
If you want to loose money get yourself a broker lads and spare us the gleeful remarks and hope that Vb goes under. But if we had grown ups on here we would be able to have an intelligent debate without the insults/slang just to have someone heard.

Reuters=Branson is starting mortgage lending and me thinks if if he can borrow cash to lend then the lenders must have some hope in him. Just an oppinon not what the papers say. And any mention of him selling up in either VA/VB? Go back to the last recession and see how he worked the institutions to his advantage.
Sorry no links.

[Going Boeing]

Posted by wirgin blew
Now that Etihad and QF are getting cosy would another Middle Eastern Carrier be interested in more of a presence in the Pacific.

Are you sugesting that EK buy out V Oz? My understanding is that any buyer of V Oz must be more than 50% Australian owned. For EK to do that, they would have to find an Australian partner who would take the required percentage - with what's happening in the world economy right now, I don't think that EK could find such a partner.

[wirgin blew]

Are you sugesting that EK buy out V Oz? My understanding is that any buyer of V Oz must be more than 50% Australian owned. For EK to do that, they would have to find an Australian partner who would take the required percentage - with what's happening in the world economy right now, I don't think that EK could find such a partner.

Not sure of how it would work considering Virgin Group have 25% of VB and REX have 3-5% so EK could only buy around 20% of VB under foreign ownership.

However could they be sold 49% of VOZ? This would definitely raise money for VB and by introducing codeshare with EK throughout Australia, the Pacific and West Coast US would provide EK with valuable traffic. Velocity is already a partner with Emirates, and VB is a Skywards partner so there is already a foot in the door.
Who knows what EK think of QF and EY hook up?

Its funny that in Melbourne the AFL is kicking up a stink about Etihad Stadium and conflicts with QF and EK sponsership of the league. In hindsight this can only be coming from EK as QF and EY are now in bed together.

Food for thought.

:ok:

[Con Catenator]

abc,

I think your'e dreaming. This is a "super" recession. One that will take some time to crawl out of. Reduced demand = loss of employment worldwide.

Most sensible people would take the view that this is a time for hoarding cash, not swanning around in one of VA or VB's debt vehicles.

Recession indicators are abundant in previous quarter fiscal results worldwide. These are facts. Ignore them at your peril.

It's not simply a matter of talking about "a few weeks" of VA operation. That's incidental. The issues are (once again) VB/VA debt levels, cash reserves, and a very poor trading outlook.

There will always be those who buy shares such as VB on spec. They are trading the market noise hoping to make a few dollars on a few cents change in price. That's pure speculating, not buying because of company value.

I, for the life of me, can't see any value in Virgin Blue Holdings the way it is now.

[VBA Engineer]

Amputate V-Aus before it's too late!

How ill does the main body have to get before you cut off the rot?

[mrs nomer]

There's not much that can be done, when at board and executive management levels, all the shutters are down and there is a mood of absolute denial. :mad:

[wirgin blew]

At lunchtime up 17% with volume of 14 million. Another please explain coming from the ASX me thinks.

[Ratter]

Do not think there will be a please explain from the ASX!

VB released preliminary operating statistics for January and the year to date figures. These exceeded market expectations in the downturn in aviation as a result of the global economic crisis.

This has increased investor confidence that VB is appropriately managing the shift in consumer demand as evidenced by the capacity adjustments over the coming months. Coupled with VB's cost reduction methods of late last year and those for the remaining fiscal 2009 as well as the company strategy to "hoard cash", the market has confidence that VB will be well placed to "ride out the storm".

Now before everyone jumps in and says "V Aus, V Aus, V Aus, the rope around the neck". Remember that plans are in place to manage V Aus as a negative cash flow operation for at least 18 months.

I am certainly glad that i do not take advice from the "negative news team" here at PPruNE, i focus on facts an figures in my decision process.... hype and hysteria, partially media driven is what keeps people affraid and prolongs the period of recovery.

Lets keep the negativity limited to actual facts...not in the realm of armchair specialists!

Regards and safe flying!

Ratter :ok:

[Kranky]

Maybe that would explain the increase in the share price. Up 20% at time of writing....wish I'd bought at .15c. The shares have been trading in high numbers since opening this morning.

[Mstr Caution]

Good news at last.

Now only 84% down from it's 52 week high.

[priapism]

Ratter , the burning question is how much in the negative for V AUSTRALIA are they prepared to cop. Delta have opened the batting fom the USA side of the pond with a seven hundred and seventy seven dollar return fare with a flat two hundred dollar fare for ongoing to other ports within the USA. (including New York) .

It will be interesting to see what the other players will do.

SQ will be sitting back patiently waiting for the blood to be fully spilt.

The cadavers will be cheap.

[porch monkey]

Of course, that begs the question how long Delta can continue to price like that. They aren't the richest airline in the world either....

[Ratter]

Hi Priapism,

Your handle brings tears to my eyes... anyone who is unaware of what Priapism is i would suggest a Wikipedia search....... OUCH!

As to your rebuttal with Delta's Fares, remember that they unbundle their prices, so including taxes they are around $1100 return. If that is Aussie dollars then that is not too dissimilar to V Aus but if it is $US then they are well above V Aus in price.

Not sure how much loss VB will wear but with better than expected start up load factors and freight carriage I hope it will not be too significant. It is important to highlight that of the $60 million of the investment in V Aus start up a large proportion of that was one off costs due to the delay courtesy of Boeing machinist strike.

The next results report will paint a much clearer, and i expect slightly better picture. Without being an expert I think the share price is on a modest rebound for a while but don't hold me to that!

Ratter :ok:

[Mr. Hat]

Ha nice one Shadow. Bloody good timing.


Hmmm then again maybe the Shadow knew about the Jan figures hey? Or was it something else you were talking about..?

[abc1]

Sound advice from the wife,pay interest on depreciating asset or else. Woman unable to understand logic, if man not comply, wife causes strife.
Man on PPRUNE.

[Keg]

Delta won't get much market share if they're going at $700+++USD a pop.

March 15, 2009 – by Ben Sandilands
from Plane Talking

It is getting raw and bleeding for the airlines across the Pacific. At this moment by astonishing coincidence Qantas and V Australia have $971 return fares on sale between Sydney and Los Angeles including hundreds of dollars in various levies and taxes.

In the US the comparable deals are just under $US 600, or pretty much the same at the current exchange rate...

I don't think VOz and QF have much to worry about from Delta.....yet.

[Under Dog]

The Shadow
One would of thought you already owned a LEXUS with all that share knowledge.


The Dog:ok:

[4PW's]

Do you think there's a chance you might be a bit overbearing, casting yourself over the thread, as you have?

Go ahead, buy Virgin stock. While you're at it, why not tell everyone about the other great things you get up to in life...

[im sparticus]

lexus pffffft, shadow tell that wife of yours to show some class.

F&@k all shares traded hands @ 15c and none of them made it into shadows account if by chance some of them did, his stellar gains wouldn't buy him a used commodore.

[biton]

As if he's going to meet with you. The guy likes his anonymity and rightly so. He's taken a huge risk by coming on pprune and posting something positive about Virgin Blue. You can get murdrered around here for doing something like that.

Shadow- you seem to have rattled their cage. Very enjoyable

[Mud Skipper]

This week seems a bit soon. Hear it's more like the end of March before anything is announced or has it been dragged forward by speculation on the share price.:confused:

Tiger people I know have the nod to get ready to move out of the shed in Melbourne and other airports are reporting definite contingency plans.

May we all live in interesting times.... True Qrewroom may rumble with the Singapore girl finally getting her way on the Pacific but hows Delta going to react :ugh:

(outside hedge it's Emirates but I don't think so :suspect:)

[7378FE]

I would love to have some positive news about VB and post it here.

Pacific Blue to commence Adelaide-Nadi nonstop service and restart Melbourne-Nadi service :ok:

7378FE

[ANstar]

The MEL-NAN timings are certainly much nicer than the Air Pacific Red Eye...

Lets hope it works out for Pac Blue.:ok:

[slice]

7378FE - do you know who is crewing ? VB or PB?

[coaldemon]

VB will crew it.

[Section28- BE]

Giday Shadow

Did you happen to sell those same shares at $2.40, that you are now buying with gay abandon at 0.15c- some time ago????????????????, with your mate Pete?????????????

Also, ref: the quoted (herein) route expansion, what's the difference between- operating an airframe (with it's implied overheads) - verse going through the motions because "one" has to wear it, due contract obligations??????????? and Revenue Expansion????????????

Rgds
S28- BE

[skyshow]

This is a very basic view on things, but I read in last week's Financial Review Virgin Blue is expecting to break even next year minus a V Australia loss. The V Australia loss should be small, considering the start up costs of $60 million are already paid for and it is now earning some revenue? Virgin Blue has over $500 million in the bank to see it through.

If this is true, its not bad for an airline in today's environment to at least break even. In a couple of years the worst of the GEC should be over and a recovery will happen meaning perhaps immediate profit and further expansion again? With Virgin Blue's losses now a proposed minimal amount (compared to the recent -$100 million) I am confident it will see it through. With re-deployment, monitoring of staff levels, and other cost-saving initiatives, its not like they're sitting around doing nothing. I've read all posts but still my view has always remained the same.

In addition, if something bad was to happen, what's everyone's thoughts on SRB financially helping Virgin Blue survive?

Those who choose to reply, this is my view, not yours or possibly yours. Be kind!!!


...Incoming...

[littlehurcules]

Interesting to hear about the increased flying for PB using VB crew on the 737.

Are there going to be any new route for Ejet are they looking at doing any international flying on the Ejet (short route of course) under the same way they are doing the VB/PB agreement.

Good to see more routes opening up with PB/VB considering the economic downturn, will be interesting times ahead ....

Are VB going to take over any SAW runs (there was talk of it) but nothing heard or announced ...

All very quite ---

[43Inches]

If the virgin group buy further shares there would be a notice on the ASX, change in substancial holdings. If SRB himself buys $6mil than this would most likely be in the papers the next day as was the rex interest.

Things seem to be getting better with OTP and Loads all heading in the right direction. However don't know what sort of ticket price is being achieved and how many aircraft are sitting idle at any one time. The fares all seem very low even up to a day in advance sometimes (all airlines).

The new 737 routes just seem to be trying to achieve utilisation on the aircraft. A quick look at the Jan stats shows the international load factors down to 73%, can't see how adding more capacity via direct flights will help.

[inandout]

Skyshow I think your on the money

[porch monkey]

OTP and load factors have been good. But it is yield that pays the bills, and that is a tough slog right about now, and not only for VB. They are trying to do the right thing in the main, (survive) and there some light at the end of the tunnel. Just hope it isn't that train........

[TheShadow]

SRB buys into the share price..
Word on the street is SRB himself has just tipped in about AU$6,000,000 of his hard earned into some DJ shares.. A broker in SYD has confirmed that a trader who is a "preferred" trader of the rich and famous at the ASX has confirmed the purchase... And no not at 15c but at 20.2c..

Yes SRB has made his first tranche bid for medium term control - and he's not keen about his plans being surfaced (so I hear). But because the share price will now motor along below 60cents for quite a while, that won't deter him and his backers from tranche 2 and tranche 3 soon thereafter.

Why do it in tranches? Large purchases attract attention and costly market knee-jerk reactions nd volatility - and the financiers' parcels all come with different terms and costs attached.

[airtags]

Would have thought that SRB would have been the last person any Board (or employees) would want as a major shareholder - esp after his apalling performances and insensitive on-camera brain farts lately.

Wonder if VB is going to be kind enough to reward those crew who are taking leave without pay with a few shares or something?..........Perhaps an invite for a weekend at SRB's place in the sun?


One for the watch and see whiteboard:

Certain VB Exec who was overheard recently proffering a less than discrete lobby for recognition in the next Honours list. - If it gets up, [unlikely]... every VB staffer who has sacraficed wages should be outraged........
.....I did suggest though, they could revive and dust off an OBE for him - recognising his rise on the backs of "Other Buggers' Efforts".

AT :E

[denabol]

Airtags,

Since Toll gave away its shares in VBA Branson has been the major shareholder on just over one quarter of the ordinary stock. As such he can creep his stake upwards according to some formula I can't be bothered looking up. But why, those of us holding VBA and going blue might ask? Well it could be the numbers are looking pretty orright at the moment, so its cheap, so buy. Or it could be that he has a sniff of another player out there and decided that the more he has when the real money gets flung around the stronger his profits if he goes, or the stronger his asset base if he stays in association with another big stake holder.

I reckon it is impossible to predict anything about the next two years or so except that only about half as many people will be flying, because they have to, and on tickets they didn't pay for, meaning government or business travellers. So if I'm right fares will get stuck in the middle, and numbers will drop, and the Aussie carriers will have to work out how to get by on better fares but fewer punters until things pick up. 2012? 2020? Depends just how stuffed America is, and it looks pretty stuffed from my porch.

[airtags]

denabol - agree and SRB has held a majority - although the difference is the influence of the majority [see the Allco QF soap opera for Andrew's classic examples of various stages of passive and divisive]

The punt is another player maybe seeing a spec option on the stock and hence the alleged SRB buy up - let's face it in the absence of anything positive from Godfrey and the Board, ANY potential interest is a good thing.

As you said the driver is the US - and with or without V [although VB would certainly be better without] - it's a tough road - esp., with some of the off balance sheet stuff coming home to roost.

I was on the money with Toll, the late pass at a stupidly high fuel hedge, the BS refinance of the 737 leases and the balance sheet juggle - hope that I'm not going for the run up for a double hat trick.

(for the rude PM critics who sugested I'm living in cloistered world at the front end of QF ...FYI - the other half has copped a second month of leave without pay thanks to VB Management's ongoing series of loss making wombat decisions)

......oh.....did I mention the life rafts? - maybe they need them at the Village

40:30

AT :E

[ozangel]

airtags...
thank you for your insights...

keep them coming...

it's refreshing to hear the truth... ignore the brainwashed

[wirgin blew]

SRB would be interested in keeping control if other players (airlines) are coming in to swoop on VB and V OZ. If V OZ changes hands away from the Virgin Group he would have to renegotiate to offer round the world tickets with VS.

At the time we all wondered why it couldn't be Virgin Australia flying to the USA and its because of Singapore Airlines
but
perhaps BG didn't need the Virgin name anyway as people will refer to it as Virgin anyway and V OZ doesn't have to pay the royalties to Branson like the rest of the Virgin brands around the world. I realise that you would probably like to trade off the brand but what if you could get something up and running without paying the bearded one a trailing commision???

[Mr. Hat]

An interesting article in the paper the other day about he A380 being not so recession proof and how EK are looking to the 777 for answers.

Whilst even BG said you couldn't launch VA at a worse time admittedly they do have a lower employee cost base and a machine that seems to be purpose built for the operation.

And no I don't believe the VA terms and Conditions are a good thing for our industry for the record.

[Frink]

Virgin shares up 38% in two days and nobody wants to talk about it? Come on you blokes, spool up!!

[TheShadow]

Does anybody know how I can get this perpetual smirk off my face?

The wife says it's very unbecoming and that I look like a Cheshire cat that's chewed on a tube of instant super-glue.

But all the good news isn't here quite yet so my facial contortions are destined to continue. It's quite painful actually. One needs pain in one's life to act as a counter-poise. And there I was remonstrating with myself for buying even more at 19c/share...... when I could've had them at 17c.

Not to worry. I'll buy into the next dip.

[Section28- BE]

Virgin shares up 38% in two days and nobody wants to talk about it? Come on you blokes, spool up!! Congratulations well done- you're all "Aviation Legend's", thanks for fixing that tough spot.....- you know far more, than any of us, who- are armchair PPL's with nil experience in such matters- Brett, I'm sure appreciates your guidance and wisdom...........- and I'm subordinately compliant before your massive display....

Brett must be feeling 38% better- than he was 48 hrs ago.

Also, I'm feeling much better about the future (and that of the employed staff) that the Red Aeroplanes have had Anna and her well experienced GFC team returned in Queensland- so "Forget About It", SRB and Pete's dream is all in good hands- by vicarious participation- you'd have to be a cert for a Bailout Package- in the "Bag", I'd reckon????????????-should the brilliance not hold.

And the "Kev" is over there now, so that should be amazing going forward.

So is there a daily Cash Burn at the moment over the AUS/V operation, or is the whole show now Cash Positive?????? (and as such, within the projected burn rate parameters), with the magnificent intervention of Delta and an Interline Agreement.

How is the current Fleet/Schedule reorganisation- yielding in a revenue sense ?????????????

For a "dumb bastard"- is that "38%" on the list price or 48 hrs ago????, for mine take your revelation to- those supportive folks who paid to participate at the get go????

Commercial ASX analysts sometimes just read spin, or so I've been told- but I'm sure you have them all briefed on this amazing 38% reversal of form, for this dumb bastard- I'll await some further evidence............

So is that enough "Spool Up"- am happy to talk when it suits your magnificence......

Bloody well done you.

Rgds
S28- BE

So- is there a material amount of knowledge that the Market should be aware of ????- that it is not????

[Frink]

Priceless! That was exactly the post I was after. :E

[Section28- BE]

No Problem Then :cool::E:E

Rgds- 28- BE

Now- how is the burn rate...............:E

[Frink]

To be brutally honest, I've got no idea. I have no real interest whatsoever in this whole saga. No job interest. No pecuniary interest. I just come on here to read the quite fascinating interplay between those desperately hoping to retain their jobs, those looking to make a quick buck in volatile times, and the strange individuals who seem to hope for, and indeed delight in, seeing other people's lives ruined.

[KRUSTY 34]

Well said Frink.

But also to be brutally honest, whilst any increase in the share price is good, 38% of F#ck all is probably a little soon to get too excited about!

[Sand dune Sam]

Frink..unfortunately you get that on pprune...a group of "experts" and worldly travellers that seem to know allot about nothing get on here and give their "expert" opinions......let it be said, that there is another thread running here about VA and Delta airlines entering into a code share..it's had 6 replies as a result of it being a positive thread (you cant have that on pprune)...on the other hand, any negative thread or a thread containing vast amounts of speculation and doom and gloom ends up running for months as our "experts" keep adding their "valuable" commentary.

Sad case really

[im sparticus]

38% pfffffffft! its still trading below 30c the trend is down,

BNB and ABS to name afew all had massive % gains on there way to zero. bargain hunting retailers just dont get it they see where the price was and think man thats super cheap buy, the smart money knows where its headed, sees its expensive lets them have it unloading on those morons.

[tsalta]

I've got facts, and I am an expert.

But, yeh, what Mr Flappy said.

tsalta

[wirgin blew]

It was always Toll's intention to sell VB, unfortunately for them no one was interested.

They purchased Patricks who happened to own VB. They are interested in freight, self loading doesn't count.

:ok:

[inandout]

Would that be about Co Share

[greenslopes]

Need a big Hammer........well you'd better have a ruddy big one !
In fact the yield is so great and the staff are so happy, their chomping at the bit to take leave without pay as the airline reduces capacity.

Looks like B*sht, smells like B*sht, yep it's B*sht.

[Section28- BE]

Strewth Hammar, hope you don't hunt in the jungle- the nervous reaction will stroke you out!!!!!- There are many of us here who actually support the security of all in VB/Vos, you included.....

And if you were to have the time in your schedule to review, along with Krusty & Sam- you may see that, or not!!!!!- but culture capture and fixation, is not something new to some of those here-

My reply to Mr Frink- was actually tongue in cheek, (which on here, was probably bold)- however, the sentiments I don't resign from............

If you have the Voz Show (my assumption, on your location & area of responsibility??)- yield (Cash) positive at this point, I do resign from every concern I have ever expressed and "congratulate you all wholeheartedly" , particularly at this time of year..........

Trust you have a CODE SHARE AGREEMENT to announce on 2 April, as oppossed to an Interline Agreement- THAT WILL (a Code Share) make a difference...

Be well

Regards
S28- BE

[Teal]

From Crikey.com.au

Qantas IPs linked to cyber-raid on Virgin Blue

Ben Sandilands writes:

Virgin Blue has been going broke for almost every month of the eight years and five months it has been flying passengers, according to on-line rumour mongers, but this week saw one of them outed as using what is almost certainly a Qantas computer.

This was the "Virgin Blue is loosing $8 million a day and being forced to pay cash for fuel and other supplies" rumour.

A moderator at FrequentFlyer.com.au (NM aka Nelly Mobbs) found that the IP number used by anonymous forum user flying1977 to spread this rumour (http://redirect.cmailer.com.au/LinkRedirector.aspx?clid=ab30ddaf-0d91-463b-9ce3-2f3f13b4a863&rid=70ac6a9f-9f82-4748-a87c-e55bbfe757f1) matched one (http://www.frequentflyer.com.au/community/open-discussion/virgin-blue-paying-cash-their-17008-2.html#post229147)used at Qantas.

An IP number is like a postal address, but with a degree of X-ray vision as to what devices are actually connected to it.
While it isn’t clear what else "Nelly Mobbs" did, an email tracer program like Read.Notify would almost certainly have come in handy too.
Such programs allow you to see if your message is "displayed" and for how long, on what sort of computer running what sort of operating system, and to whom it might have then been forwarded, together with the same discovery of who, what, when and for how long. It’s not called the web for nothing.

The Virgin Blue "going broke at $8 million per day" rumour is in fact rubbish, as would be any suggestion that Qantas was behind it. This is an organisation that runs matches between staff telephone call records and known numbers used by the media to discover and execute those who speak without authorisation and sanitisation as to content and nuance.
As a declared user of email filtering, like Virgin Blue, and many large and small businesses, Qantas would understand what flying1977 didn’t, that it is easy to be ‘caught.’
Yes, Qantas is aware of the ‘development’, and may say something. But in the real and festering world of online rumour mongering this is just another infantile mind pursuing a hate filled agenda of misinformation or fantasy.
It is so easy too. Current examples include images of massive pre WW11 Soviet Flying Boats (completed with hovering flying saucer), a massive Boeing delta shaped A380 ‘killer’ in full Photoshopped flight, and a Super Container ship about five kilometres long.
The Virgin Blue rumour is usually laced with malice on other industry forums such as Pprune.org, the Professional Pilots Rumour Network, which is nothing if not sceptical, where each time it pops up it gets incinerated. Or gets picked up and swallowed by the more susceptible muppets and arm chair CEOs on spotter sites.

But all on-line forums, including Crikey and its blogs, are targets of rumours, some of them crafted more cleverly than this one. It is one of the risks and irritations of granting anonymity in comments and discussions
The original post from Frequentflyer.com.au

flying1977 (http://www.frequentflyer.com.au/community/members/flying1977.html) http://www.frequentflyer.com.au/community/ff_icons/statusicon/user_offline.gif
Junior Member
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Tamworth
Posts: 42


Virgin Blue paying cash for their fuel?
A friend of mine who works at Brisbane airport advised that Virgin Blue are having to pay cash by fuel. This is not good news if they are.

Can anyone confirm?
The subsequent post by a moderator from frequentflyer.com.au

Clarification of relationship
In the interest of full disclosure, I think it is important to note the following:

The original poster of this thread, flying1977, regularly posts to this forum from an IP address that appears to come from Qantas. The opening post in this thread appears to have initiated from an IP address at Qantas.

flying1977 has been asked to clarify any relationship with Qantas in order for their posts to be understood in context. No clarification has been received.

I invite flying1977 to identify any relationship with Qantas and to provide clarification regarding the source of the rumour posted in this thread. This same invitation was provided privately earlier in the day.

[Mr. Hat]

ouch! time to get a lawyer young chap!

[inandout]

Look for Gods sake VB/VA are doing ok given the current conditions, AND will come out of this like Qantas still in business. OK. end of :mad: storey.

[4PW's]

Well, they say you shouldn't throw stones if you live in a glass house, but that flying1977 coward sure got his/her just desserts. I wonder what relationship the poster had with Qantas?

No, I'm not a conspiracy theorist. But there is a smallish thing called industrial espionage and sabotage. Been around since Adam was a boy, so I'm told.

I wrote to the moderator of this site recently (different forum).

PPRuNe in its current form is rapidly turning into a shadow of its former self. Yet it still has uses. I feel, as many do, those uses are better served without people like flying1977 and many other untutored posters.

My suggestion was that many with PPRuNe 'handles' should be banned, period.

Back to the thread...

[Mr. Hat]

The Age --- Page: B1-B2
The Australian Securities & Investments Commission's decision to ban a stock broker for allegedly spreading rumours that damaged the share price of Macquarie Group will be appealed by him in the Administrative Appeals Tribunal. The research in question was sent out by the offender just as the investment bank was under serious pressure from hedge funds engaging in short selling of financial sector stocks.


The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 1/49
Sydney broker, Richard Macphillamy, has been suspended from providing financial services advice for 18 months after the Australian Securities & Investments Commission (ASIC) accused him of spreading false rumours. ASIC said Macphillamy made false claims about Macquarie Group in a widely distributed email.

Its all fun until someone gets hurt..

[Spelling Police]

Mr Hat,

Don't get too carried away dude. There is a world of difference between a professional broker spreading false information to clients and an anonymous poster on a rumour site.

Ben Sandilands is once again carrying on like his namesake, Kyle.

Rumours like the one highlighted are only raising eyebrows and generating a response because they are to some extent, plausible. Whilst not losing $8 million a day, they are definitely losing something.

Whilst they may not be on cash terms, however it is not beyond the realm of possibility they have had their credit terms reduced.

Where there is smoke there is fire.

SP

[Mr. Hat]

yeah was just giving an example of a similar story. All I was pointing out was that i wouldn't want to be in the 1977 shoes thats all.

[MELKBQF]

Virgin Blue voted Australia's best (http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/breaking-news-national/virgin-blue-voted-australias-best-20090331-9h6y.html)

[greenslopes]

need a big hammer,

I am not trying to sledge VB out of hand, just bemused with the contradictory statements the Virgin group keep releasing. To highlight a couple.. announcing cuts to capacity and redundancies whilst talking up yields and passenger numbers. I think it's great if Virgin can continue to make money whilst most accrue losses, this however should not be done at the expense of loyal employees.
I know i would feel a little miffed if I was facing redundancy and the Co I worked for funded lavish parties in Sydney Harbour ,and cuts in one part of the business were to subsidize the establishment of a new loss making enterprise.

My two cents worth.

[Capt Kremin]

Any thinking Qantas employee would want Virgin to survive and prosper, as much for their own circumstances as for those at VB.

I have friends and relatives flying for VB. For their sake I wish only the best for the company. If, god forbid, VB went down then we would have similiar circumstances that allowed for the formation of Jetstar and the substandard T&C's that people were obliged to accept to keep their families in Australia.
Qantas management would have no compunction about setting the bar lower than it is now.
The reasons put forward for keeping foreign airlines from cherry picking profitable Australian routes would also largely disappear.

This downturn will end. When it does the company's that are left standing will do very well. I hope VB is one of them.

[tsalta]

Greenslopes,

The lavish party was a marketing expense which generated a substantial amount of excellent PR for the operation. Having invested well over 80 million in the startup VA, another 100K on a party is a small marketing expense.

In reality, the capacity cuts and redundancies are the smartest business decision VB group has made for a reasonable period.

I know I will get howled down but at the end of the day an employee is an employee and that is it. Yes, while they are employed the company needs to treat them with respect etc, however, when push comes to shove the shareholders and the company viability come first.

At the moment, VB need to batten the hatches. From a personal point it is harsh but from a business perspective, I am pleased to see them doing this.

tsalta

[airtags]

tsalta - the V party did nothing that a good strategic coms campaign could not have achieved. My household is one income down this month thanks to VB cuts.

Would not be so so bad but the burden is being carried by those in the front end of the business - some execs seem to be exempt from the pain.

VB must survive but Godfrey and co need to be a bit more considerate to the VB people who are taking the hit for poor business decisions. The "email me anytime Godfrey" has not even bothered to respond to emails from his own people.

As for the ferret Branson and his insensitive comments - the best thing VB could do is buy up his shares and and tell him to p*ss off.

Let VB get back to a value profitable LCC and keep Aussies in flying jobs.

PS: As for the "test modelling of a 737 with only 3 crew in cabin..........read the Hudson report

[Sked]

Company e-mail at the time indicated the tough times and the bad look of a big party to Launch V Oz. It was then explained that the direct expenses to the company were minimal as the majority of it was paid for by sponsors/business partners and not V Oz. The need for a bit of fanfare and the usual free advertising that they would get out of it was helpful. So all in all not the big cash hole in the ground people are saying. The set up costs and money drained from VB however........well that's a whole other story! :rolleyes:

[airtags]

sorry sked you should know to scrutinise 'company email' - a very reliable and proven intell source from within the bunker at the village says the cockatoo island soiree was not a free feast funded by suppliers et; al; as it was supposed to [sic; hoped to] be. - also some accomm for the chosen few execs attending - internally was costed back against DJ domestic ops.

don't believe the spin - a few within are less than impressed and are happy to back those on the flying line taking the hit.

Many VB ppl are waiting and dissapointed to see the CEO is yet to walk his own talk

- minus 60 days for the close of the VB & VOZ results - although expect the abnormals to dominate [deflect].

[Vorsicht]

Many VB ppl are waiting and dissapointed to see the CEO is yet to walk his own talk

I stand to be corrected, but didn't the management take a 30% pay cut recently?


V

[SOPS]

Note Ryanair and several other European LCC are operating the 737 with 3 cabin crew

[Sked]

Fair enough Tags. Just thought that it was a believable e-mail from the Art house at the time. Just a humble driver without the "inside contacts" so do stand to be corrected. Just telling what was received, and I know, "Believe half of what you read and then throw that out and forget it!".

[Rhodes13]

SOPS i think youll find the RYR operate their 800's with 4 cabin crew. The requirement here (Europe) is for 1 cabin crew member per 50 seats. EZY i think get away with 3 on the 700's and 319's standing by to be corrected on that though. :ok:

[denabol]

The airlines released their Feb traffic figures over the last day or so. Virgin Blue picked up 0.1% fewer than a year earlier. Qantas picked up 10 % less, and flew more than 11% less RPKs domestically, and Q Link carried 6% less pax. Jetstar flew 3.3% fewer passengers.

So, who is going to fly how low?

[ANstar]

The airlines released their Feb traffic figures over the last day or so. Virgin Blue picked up 0.1% fewer than a year earlier. Qantas picked up 10 % less, and flew more than 11% less RPKs domestically, and Q Link carried 6% less pax. Jetstar flew 3.3% fewer passengers


Don't forget last year was aleap year so Feb has a day less this year which I think QF said was around 3% less pax.

Taking that into account the Feb figures show Virgin with an increase in pax, Jetstar stagnant and QF down about 7%.

QF international was down 16% yoy or about 13% taking the leap year into account.

[denabol]

Duh! But even so, the differences between the Qantas and Virgin Blue trends seem contrary to what a lot of people here expect or hope for.

[ANstar]

members regarding Voz -- Yeild is great and loads are great -- Standby for an announcement on April 2nd


So any guesses as to what this is about?

[Section28- BE]

AN*

As far as the announcement- I really don't know.......

But they have taken off this morning, currently at 30c up 3.5 cents on a huge volume of over 13 million already.

You'd nearly reckon that something was on.........

Rgds
S28- BE

[wirgin blew]

Perhaps what was posted here has spurred on the market. I tell 10 people they tell 10 people and all of a sudden VBA gets a please explain from ASIC.

Or perhaps there will be a big announcement this afternoon?

The Ham, Cheese and Tomato sandwich will be replaced by cheese and vegemite for the coming months.

:ok:

[7378FE]

Hi there

Virgin blue has just announced an interline agreement with South African :ok:

Not mega big news, but better than nowt.

7378FE

[UNCTUOUS]

Best to ask TheShadow. He's in the picture (in fact he's in the photo).

UNC

[littlehurcules]

From News.com.au
Virgin Blue ..... has signed an interline agreement with newcomer Air Austral, a French carrier set to enter the Australian market this month

Also interesting news ... it appears Tiger will now be operating SYD-MEL around July....

[Section28- BE]

Best to ask TheShadow. He's in the picture (in fact he's in the photo).So therefore the: "Frame", as well????:};):E

Rgds
28- BE

[Frontalobe]

Folks,
is there any truth to the rumour that the ex Chief Pilot of Sky Air World has been appointed a general management position in VB? In operations perhaps?:ooh:

[Red Jet]

If we're talking about GB here, it would be the best news in a long while. Best CP I've ever dealt with, bar none!

[Section28- BE]

Ex the ASX site:

VBA, VIRGIN BLUE HOLDINGS ORD

The chart of monthly prices over 2 years for security VBA
http://hfgapps.hubb.com/asxtools/imageChart.axd?s=VBA&pi=Stock&ct=3&tf=M2&ovs=XJO&si=Index&tima1=20&tima2=20&bi=9&bima=0&comt=index&ds=VBA&dovs=XJO&val=1&stmp=20090613211910654

ASX excludes all liability arising out of any inaccuracies in this Chart, except where liability is made non-excludable by legislation. Chart values may be adjusted for changes in a company's capital structure or to link historical values that represent the company's primary equity security.

From Pennants to Bollinger bands, find detailed explanations on Patterns, Chart formations and Technical indicators.

Chart the price and volume of various ASX listed securities and compare their performance to an index. You can chart shares, indices and interest rate and hybrid securities.

[ANstar]

If you chart the VBA and QAN codes they pretty much follow a similar chart.... both are having their issues due to the GFC.

VBA, VIRGIN BLUE HOLDINGS ORD

The chart of monthly prices over 2 years for security VBA
http://hfgapps.hubb.com/asxtools/imageChart.axd?s=vba&pi=Stock&ct=3&tf=M2&ovs=qan&si=Stock&tima1=0&tima2=0&bi=2&bima=0&comt=code&ds=vba&dovs=qan&val=1&stmp=20090614104535239

[ANstar]

Shares up to 51c today.... nice return in a little over a month for those who bought into the capital raising at 20c.

[Mr. Hat]

The thread went quiet after the price started to go up...

[VBPCGUY]

Here we go, here we go:ok:

[my oleo is extended]

Good point HAT.The thread did go quiet after the share price rose.
Unfortunately,a quiet thread doesnt change the fact that VB is in 'deep do do'. Bleeding money at a rate that equals Ansett in its final year.

But hey,SRB is doing fine,still has a minor hand in the VB farce.Why not, he has collectively pulled in over $960 million since the share launch.As for BG, he was told 6 months ago to 'move on' ! He made the announcement a few weeks back oficially that he would be around for a year,I dont think so, he has since been told Dec 31 and its 'bye bye`s' for him.They need him gone before his ego sends the place to a deeper resting place than the Titanic. The board has been talking to several key people to take up the mantle, most arent interested because they have secret consultancy arrangements with QF ! Its better than 'The Bold And The Beautiful' !! Even a Mr DH is too incompetent to set up the international arm without the use of Consultants at over 10k per week, he too is in The Boards crosshairs.

All the loyalists out there who think BG is God need a wake up call.He is simply another buffoon who although losing a chunk of his wealth (and deservedly so) will retire soon into oblivion with great stashes of the green stuff, while the blinded faithful eventually wake up to the game they were played in.
Every time there is a suasage sizzle, party, and worn out gimmick announced it is simply a clever deception and ploy to keep attention away from the truth about the companies condition, and 'keep the troups happy and blissfully unaware'.

QF are seriously slicing and dicing,JQ and Tiger are run extremely lean, yet VB continues to hang on to incompetent Senior Managers and the plethora of 'wanna be Managers' in every department. VB has built the place full of unnecessary and illogical management positions, and in the process is sending itself broke. New World Carrier offering an 'in between service' ! What a crock,Senior Management are diluded and taking the Titanic down very fast. After 10 years it is time to cut loose the deadwood that has floated on top of the VB septic tank for too long, before its to late.

SRB told BG 10 year ago he would make a 'millionaires club' out of 6 start up Managers. Most have cut and run,now its BG`s turn. BH ( H.R ) took in over $13 million,BG around $180 million, the former bankrupt RS ( CFO) around $90 million, and the list goes on. Many Seniors who still work there have notoriously screwed up finances, payroll mistakes, fuel hedging, aircraft purcahsing/warranties and that list also is endless, however if your name is on BG`s favourites list or you went to school with him, then your job is safe. Incompetence will get you promoted !

Aagh yes,its not about the money is it, its about helping the Australian public who were held to ransome by the terrible duo of Qantas and Ansett ?? Yeah right. Just like VB`s true values, you can dry up that sad story and spread it over the garden...

[greenslopes]

My Oleo , do you need a holiday or what....Geez louise lighten up willya!

The first thing I was told when I started my first job as a roustabout/jackaroo was "Just remember all bosses are **nts". I've never forgotten that pertinent bit of advice and I've never been let down. Of course to every rule there is the exception. Had one particular boss in ole blighty who was a true gentleman in the real sense of the word, unfortunately he listened and even more foolishly believed what the accountants advised, bought the wrong aircraft and went broke.

We all agree that those at the top of aviation seem tarred with the same brush but there's no need to sound so bitter.....in other words laugh or you'll start crying.

[Mr. Hat]

How do you really feel about it? :)Just kidding. Hope it goes well for your team.

[TheShadow]

As the Shadow said on this page (http://www.pprune.org/dg-p-reporting-points/334032-merged-virgin-blue-share-price-how-low-can-go-how-long-31.html#post4787966), if you have the inside track on Virgin Blue you always stood to make loads of money.
.
Those who bought up big at 15c (held, then reinforced their holdings at the 20c one-for-one share offer) will have nil cause for regret.

VBA is still a recommended BUY and hold at my brokerage house.

I certainly don't.......

[VBPCGUY]

Up a further 2cents to .53:ok:

Oleo if you truely know all that info you are spreading manure from the inside.

[im sparticus]

noone baught up big at 15c f@ck all stock was available at that price if you tried to buy up big you would probably have smashed the depth all the way through to 20c. but its nice to dream isnt it shadow
53c awwwwwwwwsome ony another 500% to go and the ipo's will be breaking even nice work.

[VBPCGUY]

VBA ended the week at .54:ok:

[my oleo is extended]

VBPCGUY you are great for a laugh.I always enjoying reading comments from a VB zealot and loyalist.You obviously didnt buy in at the launch and watch your money go down the crapper ?? Dont worry, I certainly didnt, I was already a wake up to the farce many years ago and invested substantially in property instead and wont have to jot my name down desperately in an overtime book!!! Sadly many loyal staff and mum and dad investors had to watch there little patch of wealth evaporate while VB`s heirachy enjoyed the fruits of those investors pain.
You just go back to stacking those bags 'handles facing forward' and remember me one day in the future when you are awoken rudely from your VB Dream and you receive what all staff eventually receive (except the chosen few at the top) 'a slap in the face' !!
Hell,I think you should even borrow 50k and put the whole lot down on some VB shares if you are so confident, what do you reckon ??

[VBPCGUY]

Not a loyalist at all,. and I havent invested anything in VBA, what I find amazing is all the 'doomsdayers' such as yourself jump all over VB at the drop of a hat yet things are on the improve for all airlines globally and now you mock people and their jobs and get a kick out of it.,

You stated alot of supposed financial facts so you either have inside knowledge or your are pulling your cock and typing at the same time???

[slice]

oleo - do you actually work for VB ??? I have no idea what goes on at the Villiage of idiots in the valley but no one at the coalface are under any illusions about what the reality of working at VB is. Cabin ,Ground, and Flight crew have been fighting to get better EBAs for years now. General disdane would be the general attitude to management, so I don`t know where you get all this "loyalist, BG is a God" crap. That said no one wants the company to fold, which despite your hype to the contrary, it probably will not.

[Quokka]

Sorry to interrupt... but... what was the title of the thread again?

[my oleo is extended]

VBPCGUY, Here you go Knob Jockey, latest pricing $0.490 :ok:
[QUOTE]Up a further 2cents to .53http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/thumbs.gif
Oleo if you truely know all that info you are spreading manure from the inside.
But no doubt you got all 'warm and fuzzy' and booked yourself a seat on the exciting 40 000 Feet Concert, correct ??As for spreading manure, thats pretty much what you do each shift isnt it ?

Slice -
I don`t know where you get all this "loyalist, BG is a God" crap. That said no one wants the company to fold, which despite your hype to the contrary, it probably will not.
I agree about your 'going broke' statement. Someone will come along and save the day for VB, of that I have no doubt. Do I want to see all the good people out of work at VB, absolutely not.
My point is that under the 'present incompetent,inadequate,ill-informed,egotistical, beligerent, arrogant ' Management structure, the place is slowly dying. If ALL the
useless parasitic Managers that have been onboard BG`s gravy train from start up were swept out with the nightly garbage then the place could be healed.
oleo - do you actually work for VB ???
To that question I say "you dont know where I am at, but you will know where I have been".

[hotnhigh]

Things are great.......
Virgin Blue to sell and lease back HQ | Australian Aviation Magazine (http://australianaviation.com.au/virgin-blue-to-sell-and-lease-back-hq/)

[Goat Whisperer]

When they built the HQ the plan was always to sell it once completed.

This is not a harbinger of doom.

[positivegee]

Virgin Blue to sell and lease back HQ | Australian Aviation Magazine (http://australianaviation.com.au/virgin-blue-to-sell-and-lease-back-hq/)

Sounds like the kind of thing a company might do in the last days (months) of its operation.

By the same token, it may also be a prudent move when cash is needed.

For VB and its employees sake, I hope it goes well.:ok:

+G

[turbantime]

positivegee,
You couldn't be farther from the truth if you tried! The building was built on the proviso that once it was completed, it would be sold and then leased back....this was the intention right from when the drawing was on the board.

[On Guard]

+G
What a stupid comment with 600mil in the bank and break even f/c.

[air command]

Can't say I always believed it, but I seriously doubt we are going broke ... at least the sharemarket doesn't seem to think so, with share price up 9% to .555 cents today. I note also from the Dow Jones wires that RBS has upgraded VB from HOLD to BUY, with a target of .70 cents. Time will tell.

[forgetabowdit]

+ G, good on ya mate for your well informed consideration. With you on our side, hopeing for the best against ALL the odds, we just may pull this bucket of bolts together and all come out the other side...

Plonker...

[VBPCGUY]

News.com.au | Business (http://markets.news.com.au/newscorp/Company/Profile.aspx?SecId=VBA:ok:)

[Pedota]

For what it is worth, I bought a big chunk of VBA shares on 15th April (2009) for 0.3350 . . . today they are worth 0.5550, which is a 65% return on investment in 6 months. I also bought a significant quantity of QAN at a similar time for 1.95 and now they are worth 2.99 (53% increase) and big bunch of REX for 0.90, which are now worth 1.32 (a 46% increase).

So all in all I am not complaining about the state of our airline industry . . .

Cheers

Pedota

[positivegee]

positivegee,
You couldn't be farther from the truth if you tried! The building was built on the proviso that once it was completed, it would be sold and then leased back

+G
What a stupid comment with 600mil in the bank and break even f/c.

+ G, good on ya mate for your well informed consideration. With you on our side, hopeing for the best against ALL the odds, we just may pull this bucket of bolts together and all come out the other side...

Plonker...

Settle, settle...yes, I may not be fully informed but my comment was just how the sale of the VB HQ appeared to me. I did say the idea may be prudent.

(memo to me: Tip#2 If ever I start an airline I must remember to say in the prospectus that the company always intends to sell some or all of its infrastructure some time in the future and this in no way indicates anything at all about the state of the company if ever it occurs.)

[positivegee]

For what it is worth, I bought a big chunk of VBA shares on 15th April (2009) for 0.3350 . . . today they are worth 0.5550, which is a 65% return on investment in 6 months. I also bought a significant quantity of QAN at a similar time for 1.95 and now they are worth 2.99 (53% increase) and big bunch of REX for 0.90, which are now worth 1.32 (a 46% increase).



Pedota, how does that compare to other sectors?

[Pedota]

I don't wish to engage in 'thread drift' or be seen to be giving investment advice . . . but quickly other 'main' stocks I bought around the same time did about as well as the airlines (ANZ - 40%; CBA - 33%; BHP - 51%; WES - 33%). However, some companies in the sector I know something about have been stellar (DWS - 165%; SMX - 115%).

Cheers

Pedota

[KRUSTY 34]

80 new aircraft!

Care to elaborate.

[HotDog]

Considering the soothsayers gave Virgin 6 months before following Compass 2 into oblivion, I don't consider their share prize to be worrying.

[VBPCGUY]

Bigger Hammer could I be pushing 'cans' rather than throwing bags in the future?

[my oleo is extended]

Of course BG will add more widebody aircraft to the fleet. Its part of his Sir Peter Ables strategy of incompetence,add more and more different aircraft type and increase your labour costs. Accountants should stick to accounting.

[cavemanzk]

there will be some pretty shocked faces in the various boardrooms at QF, JQ etc when BG calls a press conference

Conversion to A320s maybe!

[7378FE]

Word around is the deferred 773's are now back in the frame, The lure being mega big discount on some 738/9's to replace older airframes.

More E-Jets and a trip to France to have a chat about an A350 that can do AUS-JFK/LHR non stop. :cool:

[Going Boeing]

A350 that can do AUS-JFK/LHR non stop.

Tell him he's dreamin' :rolleyes:

[VBPCGUY]

Bigger hammer please let us have a silver livery:ok:

[my oleo is extended]

VBA (http://www.pprune.org/asx/research/companyInfo.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=VBA) * (http://www.pprune.org/asx/statistics/announcements.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=VBA&timeframe=D&period=T) 0.495 -0.010 0.490 0.495 0.485 0.505 0.480 :ok:

[Mr. Hat]

Interesting stuff indeed bigger hammer.

If they change the livery lets hope they dont go for red. It fades and the repaint cant be cheap. Saw a jungle jet the other day that already looked a little chalky on the paintwork.

I've got a bit of a gut feeling that the announcement is going to include turboprops..

[my oleo is extended]

NeedABiggerHammer, you said :
It's gone, it's dead and it is well and truly burried thank god. The greatest thing to happen to Australian aviation was the demise of AN - My apologies to all employees who suffered both financially and emotionally as my comment is not directed at you in any way.

Now that's a bit harsh isn't it ?
Obviously you are part of VB's senior management if you speak like that about Ansett. None of the frontline workers would dare speak with such hostility because those sorts of words don't represent VB's commitment to 'keeping the air fair' or 'upholding value's' and Virgin flair !!

So much emotion in your comments. At least you manage to keep VBPCGUY all excited !

[AN Flyer]

Needabiggerhammer:

It's gone, it's dead and it is well and truly burried thank god. The greatest thing to happen to Australian aviation was the demise of AN

The greatest thing to happen to Australian aviation, or the greatest thing to happen to DJ? Important to clarify. After all, DJ did get AN's large, aerobridge fitted terminals, ground support equipment, Golden Wing Lounges - and most importantly, a nice slice of AN's market share almost overnight as a result of it's collapse, (maybe with the exception of YSSY's T2) - all handed on a golden platter.

I understand your comments are not intended in a negative way towards AN's sixteen thousand workforce, nor is DJ responsible for AN's death or the trauma that AN's people went through - but perhaps the respectful thing to do as a beneficiary of that death is to be the bigger person, smile graciously, consider the fortunes reaped as a result of its passing an absolute (pardon the pun) blessing, and move on.:)

[KRUSTY 34]

As someone affected by that sad day in Sept 2001, I think some clarification is in order NBH.

Yes, at least twice as many Aussies are flying domestically now as compared to 10 years ago, and the cost is approxiamately half! Great news for the travelling public and the economy. some would argue that on that basis alone the cost was worth it. However...

DJ did not benefit greatly by the demise of Ansett, it owes it's existance to it !

The cost to Australian pilots has been huge. Pay for ratings (uniforms, documentation, carparking etc.. for Tiger!!!), significant lowering of Wages and Conditions, and an abandonment of the profession by an entire generation of young hopefulls. On the last count, CPL's issued to Australian pilots over the last decade have reduced to only 10% of previous levels. Why? Because flying is now common place, and the pot at the end of the rainbow is now filled with silver (if you're lucky) instead of gold!

So, before you start jumping to the defence of this brave new world that DJ has pioneered, spare a thought for the consequences. The game has not run it's course just yet, and if DJ are not carefull they just may end up repeating the mistakes of the past. Usually happens when corporate memory is replaced by fluff and arrogance!

[skurgler]

DJ did not pioneer this crap, they merely followed the lead of National Jet, absolute crap wages and conditions payed to former Military Officers who could afford it because they had fat Military pensions as well to live on.

[Mr. Hat]

Virgin close to resolution over Blue dispute - National News - National - General - The Independent Weekly (http://www.independentweekly.com.au/news/national/national/general/virgin-close-to-resolution-over-blue-dispute/1669866.aspx?src=rss)


Virgin close to resolution over Blue dispute

JULIAN LEE
6/11/2009 8:43:00 AM

A long-running dispute between Sir Richard Branson's Virgin empire and his Australian offshoot, Virgin Blue, over the use of the Virgin name is nearing an end.

The two have been in ''negotiations'' for nearly two years about whether Virgin Blue has the rights to slap the V Australia brand, the name of its trans-Pacific airline, on a wide variety of goods.

Virgin Blue wants to be able to use the name for everything from magazines and financial services to entertainment and mobile phones.

But Sir Richard's British holding company, Virgin Enterprises, has mounted stiff opposition to Virgin Blue's plans, despite the knight owning 26 per cent of the carrier.

The Virgin group says it is "protecting itself" from any potential misuse of its brand should it decide to sell down its stake in any of its Australian businesses.

At the heart of the dispute is an agreement between the Virgin group and Singapore Airlines, the two principal shareholders in the British-based trans-Atlantic service, Virgin Atlantic. That agreement prohibits the use of the Virgin name outside Australia. It has already forced Virgin Blue to adopt the name Pacific Blue for its short-haul international carrier.

A Sydney spokeswoman for Sir Richard's Virgin Management said negotiations were due to be finalised "within the next two to three weeks" but she was unclear as to which party would come away with the spoils. She said Virgin's opposition was a formality.

"There's no longer any ownership in Virgin Mobile but we still need to put in a licensing agreement for the brand. If that wasn't in place, then it would really be out of our control.

"You need to protect yourself for the future in the way that you are represented."

V Australia is regarded as a Virgin entity because of Sir Richard's support in the venture and is therefore treated much the same way as any other Virgin brand name.

Trevor Choy, an intellectual property lawyer, does not buy Virgin's story. ''If their story was correct, they would sort it out internally. A few phone calls, a few cups of coffee. But here they have deliberately chosen to fight in an external arena - through the opposition process.

[Pedota]

This looks like good news . . . hopefully the industry has turned the corner?

Virgin Blue's Godfrey trumpets recovery

Airline Transport World
Tuesday December 1, 2009

Virgin Blue CEO Brett Godfrey told shareholders that the airline is back in the black after a difficult period at the beginning of 2009 and now is forecasting a profit for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2010.

"We are currently profitable again," he told the airline's annual general meeting in Brisbane. "We expect that if the market continues as it is at the moment we'll be able to maintain that guidance through to June 30 [2010]."
Godfrey said Blue has enjoyed a 20% growth in higher-yield corporate and government business, and that despite initial setbacks its V Australia long-haul subsidiary is recording loads of 75%. He added that the group sees no reason to alter its original prediction that V Australia would be profitable within 18 months of its February 2009 launch.

In August, Virgin Blue Holdings blamed the tough operating environment, one-off charges and nonrecurring costs for a A$160 million ($144 million) loss in the 2008-09 fiscal year, the company's worst-ever result and a reversal from the A$97.7 million surplus reported the prior year (ATWOnline, Aug. 28).

The airline has started recruiting its next CEO, with Godfrey set to retire in December 2010. He did not elaborate yesterday on configuration changes expected for Blue's domestic fleet or the imminent order for up to 70 737s and six 777-200LRs (ATWOnline, Nov. 6)

by Geoffrey Thomas

[Chocks Away]

...like that was a surprise Pedota:ugh:... nothing but industrial intimidation & cloaked threats just to move crew to were they wouldn't go and were it didn't make sense... while management gained a 35% share bonus "in these hard times"!!!!
If you were up with the world-wide industry movements these last 10 months, you would realise the Asia Pacific market, were VB/PB/Poly and now V (are to venture into), have been the shining lights in this whole downturn.
Heck, China's growth declined to "single digit growth", bugger me, lucky buggers!!!
Read the Asia Pacific Journals of this region, please lets all think for ourselves and don't be such muppets regurgitating Brekky Crk Spin jobs (ATW Online is good though).

[Capt_SNAFU]

Needabigger, how are they are going to crew these new jets if they are surplus to the ones they already have?

[Red Jet]

Capt_SNAFU Needabigger, how are they are going to crew these new jets if they are surplus to the ones they already have?

I suppose they are going to have to make some more pilots.

[On Guard]

Hammer

You do seem to know your stuff. I thought a lot of leased frames were being returned though so the net increase was maybe 10 or so a/c??
Do you know what net result is?

[Quokka]

The Simple MA for VBA has plateaued but is still showing a gentle rise. Trading volume is gradually falling and after showing resistance at 55c it appears to be slipping.

Unless there is a significant announcement about to occur, traders who bought at the start of the year between 15c and 30c may want to sell at or above 50c and realise a nice little 66% to 300% gain and buy back in at a lower level later or take advantage of other opportunities on the market.

Disclaimer: This advice is provided by someone without any financial industry training and who is completely incompetent and should be disregarded for anything other than mild conversational entertainment value. It is provided free of commissions, fees and large sums of money in brown paper bags slipped under the table. :E

[rmm]

He did not elaborate yesterday on configuration changes expected for Blue's domestic fleet or the imminent order for up to 70 737s and six 777-200LRs (ATWOnline, Nov. 6)

From Flight Global, 2/12/09

Virgin Blue eyes -900ER as part of 737 order (http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2009/12/02/335688/virgin-blue-eyes-900er-as-part-of-737-order.html)

He dismisses speculation the carrier is looking to order Boeing 777-200LRs and Boeing 787s soon for its long-haul carrier V Australia. "A lot of that was fantasy on the parts of those who spread the rumour," Godfrey says.

[Chocks Away]

...read the AR, most (management) got around 50% extra of their wage in STI, MTI and shares. :eek:

That much? So much for the hard-ball on crew T&C :rolleyes:
I hadn't got my hands on the A.R. yet so thanks InandOut.:ok:

[slice]

You do seem to know your stuff - ahahahaha:}

Big announcements, 777s, 5th carrier, blah blah blah.....

Just smokin Vcrack up at the village of idiots!:\

[slice]

Look out for a "brand realignment" sooner rather than later with a totally new product and also a "new player" in the Domestic Marketplace - A 5th player on the domestic scene by Q2 2010. 17th Sept 2009

keep smokin':}

[A. Le Rhone]

slice - very thoughtful posts. Such intellect.

Anyhow, back to the grown-ups again. Has there been any discussion of the acquisition by VA of 777-200LR for SYD-JFK direct and PER-LHR direct? Those would be some very popular flights with folks not wanting the painful transits in LAX or SIN/HKG but what would be the flight time?

Impressive thinking though.

[slice]

Yes you are right, relatively speaking quite thoughtful actually compared to the drivel that preceedes it through this thread. Take a look at the post history of the subject lined up together and all you see is bollocks!:}

[rmm]

Has there been any discussion of the acquisition by VA of 777-200LR


Not in the short term according to Flight Global (2/12/09) A. Le Rhone.

He (Godfrey) dismisses speculation the carrier is looking to order Boeing 777-200LRs and Boeing 787s soon for its long-haul carrier V Australia. "A lot of that was fantasy on the parts of those who spread the rumour,"

Full article - Virgin Blue eyes -900ER as part of 737 order (http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2009/12/02/335688/virgin-blue-eyes-900er-as-part-of-737-order.html)

[Bypass ratio]

YPPH-EGKK(GATWICK) 8997NM B777-200LR approx 17 hours
YSSY-KJFK 9950NM approx. 19 hours

[Macrohard]

From Great Circle Mapper - Speed M.835


YPPH (31°56'25"S 115°58'01"E) EGKK (51°08'53"N 00°11'25"W) 312° (NW) 7818 nm 16:19
YSSY (33°56'46"S 151°10'38"E) KLAX (33°56'33"N 118°24'26"W) 61° (NE) 6507 nm 13:35

[Propjet88]

Share Price rocketing 15% in a few days when the markets are going down??

[7378FE]

Share Price rocketing 15% in a few days when the markets are going down??

As I have mentioned in posts in other VB related topics, Great things are happening at "The Village".

People who need to know what's happening already know, those that don't know, don't need to know, stay tuned. :ok:

Sorry to be a bit cryptic but that is the way it is. :)

[Propjet88]

Its a saying known by most, but someone wise said "You can make small forune by buying airline shares - just start off with a large fortune".

From memory the float was at something around around $2.00 originally and was massively oversubscribed. With a few blips, the share price has sat around the 50c mark for months. Yet has moved from 56c to 65c in a few days when the ASX is heading South.

Something indeed must be happening. I have just looked at the market depth and with the exception of a few extremely large "off market" transactions after the market closed (in themselves very interesting), the majority of trades and unfilled bids are in smaller lots. I wonder if these are buyers who are "in the know"?

7378FE Did you buy any this week?

[grrowler]

Great things are happening at "The Village".
Sausage sizzle? :}

[Mr. Hat]

Buying in at float is a bit amatuerish though. Hype and bull**** is the way i see it. Have a look at Myer - not sure how its going now but that was a way to lose a fortune in a short period...

[gobbledock]

Propjet88,

From memory the float was at something around around $2.00 originally and was massively oversubscribed. With a few blips, the share price has sat around the 50c mark for months. Yet has moved from 56c to 65c in a few days when the ASX is heading South.


It was around $2.65 approx, and been down to the mid $0.30's. For new investors DJ may look tangible, good luck to em. For the others who bought in at $2.65 (or whatever the accurate figure is to the cent ) and were in for the long haul, well all you got was the knowledge that you made a handful of mates very very rich.
If you were to invest, I would hold off until the individual/individuals who have ridden on top this steady decline since launch day finally depart once and for all.

But dont panic, if you haven't invested, VB always rewards staff with fabulous sausage sizzles in which Management dress up in 'flairish' aprons. Thats gotta be worth something ?

[TheShadow]

Propjet88 said:
Share Price rocketing 15% in a few days when the markets are going down??

"What's going on" was announced here at these links:

one (http://www.pprune.org/dg-p-reporting-points/334032-merged-virgin-blue-share-price-how-low-can-go-how-long-post4786490.html#post4786490)

two (http://www.pprune.org/dg-p-reporting-points/334032-merged-virgin-blue-share-price-how-low-can-go-how-long-post5241341.html#post5241341)

three (http://www.pprune.org/dg-p-reporting-points/334032-merged-virgin-blue-share-price-how-low-can-go-how-long-post4810776.html#post4810776)

four (http://www.pprune.org/dg-p-reporting-points/334032-merged-virgin-blue-share-price-how-low-can-go-how-long-post4802501.html#post4802501)

five (http://www.pprune.org/dg-p-reporting-points/334032-merged-virgin-blue-share-price-how-low-can-go-how-long-post4787996.html#post4787996)

six (http://www.pprune.org/dg-p-reporting-points/334032-merged-virgin-blue-share-price-how-low-can-go-how-long-post4787966.html#post4787966)

[VBPCGUY]

Its very good but what about the staff fighting for a decent pay rise such as pitcrew and guest services will this help us?

[7378FE]

7378FE Did you buy any this week?

No.

Sausage sizzle?

Nothing great about the sausage sizzles, believe me. :yuk:

[HotDog]

It is so frustrating that this startup, founded in August 2000 and given six months to survive by the sooth sayers; hasn't bit the dust.:ugh:

[hardNfast]

Whats been happening. Was happy days around 75c now almost hitting 40c. Lost half its value in a month or so.

http://hfgapps.hubb.com/asxtools/imageChart.axd?s=VBA&pi=Stock&ct=3&tf=D6&ovs=&si=Code%20not%20supplied&tima1=0&tima2=0&bi=2&bima=0&comt=index&ds=VBA&dovs=0&val=1&stmp=20100520162940112