Ryanair - 'Laying Off' 600!!

[Redline]

It's happening....RYR is now operating at a loss (internally official)...

600 pilots need to be shed and everybody has been ask who wants some unpaid leave...So you know what's coming next...

Batten down the hatches, it's going to be bloody ....

[Notso Fantastic]

Will Alitalia be painting 'Caio Ryanair' on its planes now?

But I very much doubt your figure!

[411A]

Bound to happen...and expect more to come.
The continued rise in fuel prices will take its toll on the low cost model airline...and quite frankly I think this might be a golden opportunity, for airlines to pass from the weak to stronger hands.
In addition, it will get rid of the marginal operator and also provide another rather favourable outcome...low cost tickets go away, the great un-washed masses (some of which haven't seen a bar of soap in the last three weeks)can't afford to fly, making it so much better for those who can...this is called, enhanced revenue generation.

The bottom line will smile once again...for the survivors.

For the rest?
Down the tube.
Goodbye.

Think I'm cold and heartless?
Yep...however, these are the facts, like it or not.
Oh...boo hoo.

[fireflybob]

Yes but am willing to bet that in 5 years from now Ryanair will still be going whereas others will have gone to the wall because their cost base is much higher than Ryanair's.

[Final 3 Greens]

mmmm...

But cost base only matters if you can still attract customers.

Time will tell whether there will be enough disposable income for non business travellers to make the locos a viable operation.

I reckon 411a has been around long enough to be worth a listen to...

[Justin Cyder-Belvoir]

Price is king.

Airtours made a fortune in the last downturn by providing cheap holidays.

The premium, paid by companies, classes will survive: those who have to by their own tickets will go for the cheapest option.

[spinnaker]

411a

Its called, 'dredging the airline gene pool'

[END BAG]

The really crazy thing is that in the last 36 hours THREE more 737-800,s have been delivered to Ryanair in Dublin!!

[adverse-bump]

How is ryr getting rid of pilots going to save them money? most of the FO's pay to work there!

Surely getting rid of them will cost them money!

[737]

Redline, please tell us where this info came from?

[nmcpilot]

Can't be that bad, I know a guy who had an interview a couple of days ago and got a job, if this really was the case why would they be still giving interviews?

[Redline]

Info came from a Line Trainer @ Dublin... Personally i agree that 600 seems a bit extreme....at the mo...

[adverse-bump]

Can't be that bad, I know a guy who had an interview a couple of days ago and got a job, if this really was the case why would they be still giving interviews?

as i said, they make a profit from there FO's, so maybe recruiting lots of FO's is the rescue plan!

:}

[CP Fox]

I don't know where you get your facts from but Ryanair is not gonna sack 600 pilots when they are opening bases all the time. don't you think that they will need pilots.

Maybe the other operators are gonna be doing this as they are making a loss but FR are not.

You lot are idiots and have nothing better to do then worry about what FR are doing you should be worrying about what ur operators are doing more than FR

[TwoOneFour]

Price is king


Cash is king...and there's plenty of airlines in far worse a state than Ryanair.

[heli_port]

not good news at all for us wannabes :(

[Pugilistic Animus]

Think I'm cold and heartless?
Yep...however, these are the facts, like it or not.
Oh...boo hoo.:}
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XoZrLFTCaT0


best wishes to the affected Air Crews

PA

[YYZ]

People were asked to take unpaid leave last your as well, times are getting harder and if oil goes over $200 per barrel as predicted I thing things will get bad, but at the moment I think the prediction of 600 redundancies is a bit keen... I hope?

YYZ

[nmcpilot]

600 cabincrew maybe? :=

[Lazy skip]

The memo said that unpaid leave are available for no more than 35 captains and for no longer than 5 months.

[CargoOne]

pressman

Absolute crap , whilst they may well be running an operating loss at the moment they will not be shedding 600 pilot jobs , they are still hiring a lot of pilots to fly the new metal , the sums just don't add up for this to be true .

OK, 600 pilots may be really too much, but the argument is not valid itself. RYR is taking new deliveries and same time parking existing airframes of the fleet (at least that's what a read somewhere on internet). If there are many long-standing commitments for something sometimes it is easier (and cheaper) to follow the line and take some actions on a side, rather than to cut or suspend the whole deal.

[ICEHOUSES]

Yeah lets bury our heads in the sand, everythings going to be just fine, your great leader MOL wanted the perfect storm, but just forgot to hedge the fuel cost.. S**t :eek:

[Pugilistic Animus]

There has been extensive fuel hedging by smart operators with good management;)


PA

[Dani]

and getting new Boeings, sell them and lease them back gives the company more cash, not less...

Dani

[BALLSOUT]

Easyjet just posted a loss, jet2 posted a loss, globespan posted a loss, Ryanair posted £300,000,000 profit. Ryanair are not laying off 600 pilots.
Ryanair will still be here when all of this none sense has settled down and many others have gone to the wall.
411A
Ryanair will be around for a long time over here, just as Southwest will over there!
I don't know what pax you used to cary on the 10, but the vast majotity of ours are normal, well washed inteligent people who know a good deal when they see one!

[Afinehelmet]

Ryanair have huge cash reserves, but I doubt that MOL will allow any of that to be spent keeping crews on the pay roll if he doesn't have to. Hence the "option" of unpaid leave that is on offer.

But, between now and 2012 Ryanair have another 100 or so B738's arriving and under their model they need 6.7 crews per aircraft to keep them running (Eddie Wilson's figures) and shedding 600 crew just does not add up.

Perhaps 600 crew in total (Flight Deck and CC) is the number being looked at for "unpaid leave" over the winter period when Ryanair won't be as busy. They demand total flexibility from their staff (i.e if the company makes money then the staff can have some too) and maybe this is the move from MOL and his henchman to seek further "flexibility" from an already stretched (financially speaking) workforce.

[freightdoggy dog]

Ballsout. Jet2.com end of year results aren't published till 24th of July, so if you have a copy of the financial year end 08 published accounts pray tell us all how much they lost in 07/08 ??

What they actually gave to the market was a "profit warning" early in the year. So the profit maybe flat, less than last year etc, but I haven't heard them say a loss yet ?. ...

Don't forget they are a distriburion group, aviation is only a part of it.

[Sunfish]

The Ryanair business model was never, ever going to be sustainable, as I've said on numerous occasions.

For the record, that model is:

1. Sell product below cost of production.

2. Drive competitors out of business.

3. Profit!

[potkettleblack]

With a minimum of 20 airframes being parked up then 600 seems a bit steep at 6 crews each but not within the bounds of possibility if its cabin crew as well. Afterall wasn't he trying to wetlease crews out to India with adverts to that effect carried on his website?

Makes sense that he will continue to recruit new joiners as they are a source of income and fly for free until checked out. BUT will they get any hours afterwards? Maybe they will get some but will they be able to pay back their training costs if they work a reduced roster.

[JulietNovemberPapa]

I believe that in two years FR will again be posting record-high net profits. And I believe that it will benefit from this present climate very similar to how it did post-September 11th (although today is meant to be the most challenging environment for the past 30 years), namely by benefiting, in part, by other airlines' capacity withdrawls, frequency reductions, route eliminations, higher fares charged, etc. The next couple years will certainly be very interesting.

[mary_hinge]

BALLSOUT:
FYI
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article4087988.ece

Flyglobespan, the low-cost airline set up six years ago by entrepreneur Tom Dalrymple, is on track to return to profit this year after a £13m loss in 2007.

[suitcaseman]

I doubt it. 9/11 and the high price of fuel are not related in any way. We all know that the cost of fuel is one of the largest operational costs of any airline and there is no such thing as an "expensive" low cost airline. At the end of the day ticket prices will rise, the general population will be feeling the pinch in every day life and the first thing to go will be the overseas holiday resulting in less passengers for the airlines. It will indeed be the survival of the fittest but I have my doubts as to how a low cost fits into that equation. FR certainly has size and diversity on its side.

It is a bit to early to start panicking and predicting doom and gloom - like filling up your car because a few lorry drivers are on strike. It was well publisized the FR would be parking a few aircraft over the off season and I'm sure thats all it is.

[JulietNovemberPapa]

I doubt it. 9/11 and the high price of fuel are not related in any way.

11th September and high fuel prices are related in terms of how a good number of airlines will reduce capacity, eliminate routes, reduce frequencies, etc., to try to control the situation and reduce the likelihood of losses. And I firmly believe that amid that rationalisation comes opportunity - but only for certain airlines.


We all know that the cost of fuel is one of the largest operational costs of any airline and there is no such thing as an "expensive" low cost airline.


Yes. FR already had low costs and high efficiency and productivity. But it has actively sought to reduce costs still further by around €400m, primarily through contract renegociation. FR benefits greatly by being such a focused and dedicated airline.

At the end of the day ticket prices will rise

I agree and disagree. I agree because FR has stated on several occasions that its average fares will rise by 5%. That, I believe, will be on non-sale fares. I disagree because FR is evidently doing everything possible to maximise the number of passengers flying; indeed, it has since the beginning of May had 3 or 4 FREE NO TAXES, NO FEES, NO CHARGES specials - and that is peerless in such a short space of time. But don't forget that FR has been tweaking upwards (as it has done for a long time) its various ancillary revenue components, so those combined are one way in which it can still offer excellent deals that permit more people to travel.

the general population will be feeling the pinch in every day life and the first thing to go will be the overseas holiday resulting in less passengers for the airlines.

The only way I'm feeling in the pinch is that my bread has increased by 30p. So I just buy cheaper bread. The vast majority of people who fly FR do so for VFR and full leisure reasons. I believe that if people are to still travel - which they obviously are and will continue to - they will in a number of cases trade down to cheaper alternatives, and that is another reason why true discount airlines are in an enviable position.

[Captain_djaffar]

seems more a rumour than a fact.
Still if agreeing the downturn is ahead due to oil $$$, it wont be surprising if it really happens

[THE POINTY END]

I left Ryanair some time ago now, so I'm not that up to date with the current state of play there. I thought that all Ryanair pilots taken on over the past year or so were Brookfield contracts that only got paid when they fly. Easy to get rid of guys that don't have a Ryanair contract, simply say you're not needed for the next month or so. Is this the case or am I a little off base?

[Fish1]

Bull. Ryanair is giving up to 35 captains and up to 50 F/O's the option to take up unpaid leave this winter, simply because a part of the fleet will be grounded due to lower demand (edit: apparantly it's not due to grounding aircraft, so I'm wrong there). It's not forced, it's simply for those who are interested in it.

That's only 85 people max and they're not being fired, they're just going on holiday to Florida.

Why would you lay off 600 people if you have an expanding fleet and route network? Yes, just like other airlines Ryanair is feeling the pressure of high oil prices, but it's still growing and growing means MORE employees, not LESS.

[mini-jumbo]

The Pointy End - Yes, I believe only Brookfield contracts are being offered / have been offered recently.

[Rhodes13]

Isn't this a bit like I heard off a friend of a friend whose cousin supposedly saw a piece of paper?

I mean its not actually official and some of you are on hear saying I told you that it could never work (sunfish looking at you)

How about we actually wait for a official statement before all jumping the gun, or actually wait for the announcement of the 600 jobs to go?

Like many said last year we also asked for unpaid leave and like then we didn't ground aircraft at Stansted they were in fact sent to the new bases in Spain.

But don't let facts get in the way of a good rumor even if it a bit dopey?

[NIMBLE]

Of all the garbage that i've read about Ryanair this has to be top of the list.
I don't work for them but i very much doubt that sacking 50% of the pilot workforce is on the cards esp when they'll be collecting 6 aircraft a month from sept on a nd 2 billion in the bank!
I'm sure they are offering more unpaid leave then usual this winter.
To any one who may believe this,Santa 's not real and the tooth fairy does not exist!!!!!!!!!!!:)

[blablabla]

Well if they are said to be parking 20 Aircraft for the winter season and they average 5 sets of crew per aircraft including cabin crew if they operate a 2/4 configuration then thats 30 people surplus per parked airframe so times that by 20 parked airframes and you come to the magic 600 figure........I know nothing about Ryanair and this is just my assumtion on these strange figures being quoted.

[bia botal]

nimble i agree, laying off 600 pilots means grounding in the region of 60 aircraft, this is close to 33% of the fleet, permanently! all that will do is allow the competition to expand to pick up the slack. Not what you would do if you where trying to force other companies to the wall now is it? :ugh:

[smith]

But don't let facts get in the way of a good rumor even if it a bit dopey?

Remeber a rumour only becomes true after it has been officially denied!:ok:

[MarkD]

those who yak on about "ryanair taking deliveries" and "ryanair's expanding fleet" should look at the link below and note the number of "WFU/to be WFU" designations.
http://www.jethros.dwsitech.com/fleets/fleet_listings/ryanair_in_service.htm

MOL flogs his aircraft until they get worn around the edges and then makes them someone else's problem. The fleet size hasn't grown that much in some time because of this practice, considering the number of deliveries.

[Husky One]

Sounds like nonsense however O'leary made hay while the sun was shining hence the huge reserves. He's gong to need all of it soon because the RYR model is not geared towards this type of downturn and despite all his BS he knows it. Demand is falling off, the passenger base is disintegrating. No fuel hedging either..that alone will balance the books against RYR's other 'efficiencies'. Flying to tarmac strips in a farmer's field will not be cost effective when the wannabe ferry passengers can't stretch to it anymore.

[keel beam]

600 - impossible. I thought Ryan Air was a virtual airline, so there is only 1 employee!:eek:

[I Just Drive]

Lots of the Brookfield guys have had their 1 month allocated to the winter. Some of the permanent staff will reach 900 hours early so can't fly anyway. Add to that annual leave allocation and the few that will take the unpaid leave and you already have a substantial reduction in capacity within normal ops. Im sure some of the Brookfield guys will also be told they arnt needed for a bit but I don't think people will get laid off in the traditional sense.

[Charter Lad]

Comparisons with Southwest are not valid.SW have hedged fuel at $51USD,Ryanair have hedged at :ugh:

[rubik101]

You might want something to be true; you might wish in your heart of hearts for something to be true, you might wish ill upon MOL and his supposed foul spawn of an airline, you might long for the day he and his bastard creation fall asunder but no matter how much you write it, read it, wish it, it is all just so much rumour and innuendo.
Most of what is written here amounts to a bucket full of lies and ignorance and when the aforementioned numbers do not come to pass, and Ryanair is one of the few survivors in years to come, what will you all write here to acknowledge the fact that you are wrong and know nothing?
Nothing!
Blarney, baloney and wishful thinking from all of you naysayers.
Sad and ignorant doubters, the lot of you.
History will prove the true facts.

[Callsign Kilo]

And all this was started by a Line Captain at Dublin...Must be true then. I'd imagine Howard Miller and Michael O'Leary had invited him round for tea and scones, then marched him off to the crewroom in order for him to share the news with his colleagues. However, like all hot inside Ryanair gossip, what was actually said (or never actually said at all in most cases) is blown out of all proportion in order to ensure the longevity of the rumour. It's like Chinese whispers. A story that starts off in one crewroom ends up being a different one in another. By the time it gets round the whole network it no longer bares any resemblance to the original story!

[stator vane]

get rid of 600 base captains, and crew planning blah blah blah's.

we could roster ourselves---first start a list of who prefers earlies and who prefers lates.

there's a lot more intelligence flying in the flight deck than apparently sits on the ground.

[captjns]

Good point Kilo One… Rumors in the airline industry both mutate and spread faster than culture groups grow in Petri dishes in biology labs.

[top jock]

When he parks the 20 aircraft they will be used as spares and they will fly. Also he has offered unpaid leave for 3 months which means if you take it you will do 900 hours in 9 months.

[rubik101]

Seems a bit odd that the RYR advert sits atop this page, recruiting, yes, pilots!

[Justin Cyder-Belvoir]

The contrast in opinions between this, and other Ryanair threads, and the Silverjet threads running at the moment is quite astonishing.

On the one hand there exists a low cost carrier which provides nothing more than a point to point safe air service and makes no bones about the minimalist service. Ryanair flies new aircraft, the oldest being around 5 years old before it is replaced. The company makes millions, is expanding and provides well paid employment for around 1200 pilots.

On the other hand Silverjet was(my emphasis) an unadulterated luxury carrier, promising exceptional standards of customer service on point to point routes. They flew old aircraft, lost millions and put hundreds out of work.

Yet the vitriol hurled at Ryanair suggests that they are doing something wrong: whereas, Silverjet appear to be regarded as positvely saintly !!

Frankly it comes down to snobbery: you think air travel should be the preserve of the rich and that it should be shrouded in some glamourous fog. As the pilot, you should be idolised for doing such a skilled yet dangerous job and paid millions; women should throw themselves at your shiny black Oxfords as you parade through the terminal in your immaculate gold ringed uniform, scrambled egg adorning the peak of your company hat, on the way to your 5 star hotel, accompanied by a a swathe of stunning cabin crew.

Taking your own coffee and sandwiches really is a come down for you!

Snobbery: nothing more, nothing less.

[Husky One]

er..not quite Justin. There are plenty of LCC pilots on these forums who are fairly happy with their own operators but wouldn't touch O'learys mob with a 40ft pole. Many reasons there may be but snobbery doesn't come into it :rolleyes:

[potkettleblack]

Justin, since you clearly hate pilots so much then perhaps you should clear off from a Professional Pilots Rumour Network. Log onto the beeb instead and have a good moan there. Does MOL know you are logging on from work? Best get back to the grindstone and make sure your mobile isn't on charge either.

[Justin Cyder-Belvoir]

Come, come my little black Le Creuset set, I don't hate pilots at all. Is it not the case that there are many and varied voices in these hallowed halls?

Were you sick on the day everyone else did CRM? Is an alternative view not valid ? Does advocacy ring a bell? Or did I just touch a raw nerve ? ;)

[The Trappist]

Justin: '...my little black Le Creuset set,' The images are wonderful!;)

By the bye, '…air travel should be the preserve of the rich and that it should be shrouded in some glamorous fog.'

Absolutely spot on old chap! In fact, so much fog that we can't get airborne and can just walk around in our tailor-made uniform all day.:ok:

[one post only!]

Justin you have just described my perfect job! Am I a snob, no, but I think if I worked hard at it for many years I might just lose my Low-cost ways!!

5 star hotels here I come.....

[eng123]

Quote ''The contrast in opinions between this, and other Ryanair threads, and the Silverjet threads running at the moment is quite astonishing.

On the one hand there exists a low cost carrier which provides nothing more than a point to point safe air service and makes no bones about the minimalist service. Ryanair flies new aircraft, the oldest being around 5 years old before it is replaced. The company makes millions, is expanding and provides well paid employment for around 1200 pilots.

On the other hand Silverjet was(my emphasis) an unadulterated luxury carrier, promising exceptional standards of customer service on point to point routes. They flew old aircraft, lost millions and put hundreds out of work.

Yet the vitriol hurled at Ryanair suggests that they are doing something wrong: whereas, Silverjet appear to be regarded as positvely saintly !!

Frankly it comes down to snobbery: you think air travel should be the preserve of the rich and that it should be shrouded in some glamourous fog. As the pilot, you should be idolised for doing such a skilled yet dangerous job and paid millions; women should throw themselves at your shiny black Oxfords as you parade through the terminal in your immaculate gold ringed uniform, scrambled egg adorning the peak of your company hat, on the way to your 5 star hotel, accompanied by a a swathe of stunning cabin crew.

Taking your own coffee and sandwiches really is a come down for you!

Snobbery: nothing more, nothing less.'' :D:D

Absolutely brilliant Justin :ok::ok:

It never ceases to amaze me the amount of absolute junk spoken on here about Ryanair. Most of this crowd would love to see us go out of business. Yes, I too have heard we are about to post a loss, the first one ever under the current management. Well whoopy-do. No **** Sherlock. Come on guys, there will hardly be a single airline, let alone LCC that will not be doing similar in the current climate of unsustainable fuel costs. If an airline such as Ryanair, that cuts costs to the bone are hurting, imagine what the inefficient national airlines of the rest of Europe are doing, not mentioning the smaller so-called low cost carriers in the UK such as Jet 2 etc. Whilst not wishing anything bad to happen to them, I am sorry to say that I am sure they will soon go the way of Silverjet if the oil price stays at this level.

600 redundancies?? Complete bull. As has been said, new aircraft are arriving all the time. I looked at the delivery schedule the other day and it surely must be the busiest yet. Come September, new aircraft are arriving at the rate of several a week. These are not going to be left sitting idle. They will be flown, hopefully not at a loss but I am sure they will be flown all the same.

Where has this cr@p about 20 aircraft currently being stored come from? We rarely have a single aircraft spare, let alone 20!!:ugh: Sure, the older airframes are being disposed of but this is bringing millions into the company. Rumour has it that the second hand value of these aircraft virtually matches the cost that was paid to Boeing in the first place.

So, in summary, sorry to disappoint the majority of PPRuNe'rs that seem to want Ryanair to fail....it won't be pleasing them any time soon!

[Justin Cyder-Belvoir]

Monsieur Trappist, the beer maker,

Tip top dear boy. Clusters of immaculately clad pilots lurking in the cafes, gadget stores and bookstores of terminals throughout Europe, union cards at the ready.

Callow Second Officers ordered to take the point, exposing themselves to untold dangers, their inexperience and naivety worn like a badge of courage, whilst their seniors sit in ambush waiting for the vicious, licentious soldiery that are the Ryanair crews to shamble past, weighed down by cheap gas station ham and cheese baguettes slowed down by heavy wallets bulging with sector pay.

The carnage hardly bears thinking about: just how much damage can a uniform cap do?

But a small black Le Creuset saucepan secreted in a briefcase??????

[LeftHeadingNorth]

Frankly it comes down to snobbery: you think air travel should be the preserve of the rich and that it should be shrouded in some glamourous fog. As the pilot, you should be idolised for doing such a skilled yet dangerous job and paid millions; women should throw themselves at your shiny black Oxfords as you parade through the terminal in your immaculate gold ringed uniform, scrambled egg adorning the peak of your company hat, on the way to your 5 star hotel, accompanied by a a swathe of stunning cabin crew.

And you say there is something wrong with this?!?:E

[wbryce]

Eng123: Where has this cr@p about 20 aircraft currently being stored come from? We rarely have a single aircraft spare, let alone 20!! Sure, the older airframes are being disposed of but this is bringing millions into the company. Rumour has it that the second hand value of these aircraft virtually matches the cost that was paid to Boeing in the first place.

It came directly from Leo Hairy Camel himself. Spoken in one of his financial reports it said:

Unit costs rose by 2% reflecting the unjustified doubling of airport charges by the BAA
Stansted monopoly, higher charges at the Dublin Airport monopoly and a 6% increase in
average sector length. Cost increases over the winter were limited by our decision to
ground 7 aircraft at Stansted and we will extend this program next Winter by grounding up
to 20 aircraft ( approx. 10% of our fleet), mainly at Stansted and Dublin where high airport
charges make it more profitable to ground aircraft rather than fly them through the
Winter.

Source: http://www.ryanair.com/site/about/invest/docs/2008/q4_2008_doc.pdf

Their finances suggest that airport charges are much higher than staff costs so any major increase at their main hubs will be a huge concern for the bean counters.

[eng123]

Love the two posts above :):):)...Ok, the two posts above the one above!! I have yet to read that.

[brakedwell]

Frankly it comes down to snobbery: you think air travel should be the preserve of the rich and that it should be shrouded in some glamourous fog. As the pilot, you should be idolised for doing such a skilled yet dangerous job and paid millions; women should throw themselves at your shiny black Oxfords as you parade through the terminal in your immaculate gold ringed uniform, scrambled egg adorning the peak of your company hat, on the way to your 5 star hotel, accompanied by a a swathe of stunning cabin crew.

Happy days, I remember them well, unfortunately by the time my hat was covered in scrambled egg I was too old to be of interest to my stunning cabin crew! C'est la vie.

[eng123]

OK. Read it now.

I remember that being said last winter. At that time, whilst there was certainly more aircraft 'spare' than with the summer schedule, there certainly wasn't a systematic storing of 7 aircraft. The previous posts said that 20 aircraft would be 'parked up' this winter, giving the impresion that 20 particular aircraft would be put into long term storage. I am sure that will not happen.

[fibod]

So, there is less business over winter; nothing new in that; and rather than fly all the fleet at a reduced utilisation rate it is better flying part of it at a high utilisation rate. Again, there is nothing new in this thinking; it's a common practice across the industry. So what is all the fuss about? Have I missed something?

[JulietNovemberPapa]

I can't believe this thread is still going strong.

Incidentally, don't forget BA announced plans a couple or so weeks ago to ground some of their less efficient aircraft this winter.

[Chocks Wahay]

The Ryanair business model was never, ever going to be sustainable, as I've said on numerous occasions.

For the record, that model is:

1. Sell product below cost of production.

2. Drive competitors out of business.

3. Profit!

It worked just fine for Stagecoach. As long as you've got plenty cash in the bank, which isn't one of Ryanair's problems, it's perfectly valid. Just not nice :{

[Groundloop]

The Ryanair business model was never, ever going to be sustainable, as I've said on numerous occasions.

For the record, that model is:

1. Sell product below cost of production.

A common fallacy believed by many of Ryanair. There are a number of seats sold at headline grabbing fares at below cost per flight - but there are many more seats sold at above cost on the same flight!

[JulietNovemberPapa]

A common fallacy believed by many of Ryanair. There are a number of seats sold at headline grabbing fares at below cost per flight - but there are many more seats sold at above cost on the same flight!


Indeed, and FR's average one-way fare is around €40.

Don't forget that numerous ancillary revenue sources (surcharges, if you prefer) complement ticket revenue; indeed, James Fremantle, of the AUC, argues: 'Airlines are simply putting up their prices with these surcharges.'* Whatever, ancillary revenue is of fundamental importance to FR, without which it would be considerably less profitable.

* http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/consumer/travel/article.html?in_article_id=443025&in_page_id=1093

[ThatsRight!]

I dont think so.
Started by someone who feels their job is not looking so sceure I bet.
Like em or not, mark my words, most of you will have to consider applying for them over next 5 yrs or so, maybe sooner (or go hungry!).
I know for a fact this is not true. The opposite actually.
Sorry to disapoint.

[eagle21]

Having worked for Ryanair, I certainly have a personal opinion about the airline and is not positive.

In one word I would describe it as disgraceful.


The main problem for Ryanair is that it doesn't have the margin to reduce their cost anymore.

Any airline in the world could operate in the way Ryanair does if needed in order to survive, but what can Ryanair do to survive?

Also the average Ryanair worker does not care about the airline and when tOugh times come everyone will run away as fast as they can, making it probably the quickest disappearance of an airline such a size.


In my opinion Ryanair brought the low fares for the public to enjoy but for the airline employees it hasn't brought anything else apart from misery.


I understand that some of you will not agree with me, and I respect your opinion.

[interpreter]

nmpilot. It does not mean anything. Back in the 80s I was given an airline ticket by a major US bank to fly to a major US city, dined and told I was hired and to report to HR in the morning. Woke up in my hotel room (paid for by the bank), turned on the TV only to hear the bank had gone "belly up". I checked out and jumped on the first flight before they could seize my return ticket or get me to pay the hotel bill. Business is business and frequently the masses know nothing until it is all over.

[applefigher]

if that was 600 pilots that would be like 1/3 of the pilot work force. must be flight attendants if anything.they always seem to be going first anyways

[B737NG]

The sand pit is waiting there are more then 2.000 Pilots needed in the future

Fly safe and land happy

NG :ok:

[clear prop!!!]

Nice post Justin.

Spot on!

What luxuries would we expect on a 1hr bus or train trip?

Sod all!!

The days of air travel for the masses being something special are long gone!

[Re-Heat]

But, between now and 2012 Ryanair have another 100 or so B738's arriving and under their model they need 6.7 crews per aircraft to keep them running (Eddie Wilson's figures) and shedding 600 crew just does not add up.
Sorry, but it does make sense. They have publically disclosed to analysts that they are selling older 737-800s (see earlier post of mine, cited from Chris Avery of JPMorgan).

They are canny business operators and will not hesitate to shrink the business to maintain greater profitability.

[airfoilmod]

Need one be? Amidst the Bankos, furloughs , and consolidations, I should think a rather dim bulb would catch on.

An idiot nephew, new to the grocery business, claimed "I lose 10 cents on each apple I sell", Uncle: "how are you making money?" Nephew, "Volume".

Airfoil

(The 73 market, along w/ MD80 is soon to be glutted. Two Yank Legacies are going to cost Mr Ryanair alot o dough on the "used" market).

[Borealis]

"Ryanair, Europe’s largest low fares airline, today (5th June) announced its biggest ever single expansion, launching 12 new UK routes as part of a package of 40 new European routes for winter 2008."

and:

"Ryanair, Europe's biggest low fares airline, today (3 June) announced a 20% increase in full year net profits after tax to a record €481m. Traffic grew by 20% to 51m, average fares (including bag charges) fell by 1% to €44, while revenues grew 21% to €2.714bn. Despite a unit cost increase of 2%, due to higher staff and airport costs, Ryanair delivered an industry leading after tax profit margin of 18%."

Taken from the Ryanair webpage. And they´re gonna lay off 600 pilots???
To me that´s strange mathematics...

[nich-av]

Sorry, but it does make sense. They have publically disclosed to analysts that they are selling older 737-800s (see earlier post of mine, cited from Chris Avery of JPMorgan).



Like they have been doing since the past decade. Any aircraft older than 5 years is sold because it would cost too much to maintain it.

Explain how they would otherwise achieve an average fleet age of 2.5 years.

Ryanair are doing great.
And so are most European airlines not flying regularily across the pond.

[alexmcfire]

So for the people with inside knowledge, does Ryanair have thought of flying
Hadjj flights, they certainly got the resources to do it and pilgrims tend to
cost sensitive many flying for the first time in their lives?

[Wellington Bomber]

airfoilmod has got it bang on!

Ryanairs business model is based on selling its older 737's to accommodate new ones arriving from Seattle, even though the older ones are only 5 yrs old.

All well and good in a thriving airline market with plenty of takers and not a great deal of spare capacity.

But the exact opposite is happening, Ryanair is struggling to pass on these airframes with no customers to pay top dollar for them and also with many other carriers retiring the same type of aircraft, the market value drops through the floor.

And with money scarce and banks not willing to lend to airlines, if an operator needs to buy an aircraft, he will go to the desert and buy a lot cheaper aircraft and not a 5yr old 737-800

There is your problem!!!!!!!!

[EI-CFC]

I haven't seen any airlines parking 737-800's in the desert en masse.

What are being sent to the desert are older classic models (737-300/400/500) so *if* someone was going to choose them, it may turn out to be a false economy on their part.


Any bank worth it's salt would look at a business plan and point that out ;)

[The Real Slim Shady]

Wellie Bomber

Older and cheaper to buy but maybe not to run.

An A320 burns 2 tonnes less fuel ( $2800 ish lower DOC) on 1000nm stage length than an MD 80 (V2500s vs JT9s).

Also an older airframe may need a heavy check which costs both time and lots of wonga!

[top jock]

There is a leasing company taking 15 of the older 800's at the moment and this will go on for the next year. They are also looking at taking another 5 from them.

[sky9]

Topjock

I think that the Ryanair Business plan also depends on selling new 737-800 and leasing them back.

The last full tax year showed an increase in the number of aircraft leased off balance sheet from 25 to 35. I presume that those aircraft are part of a sale and leaseback rather than a lease outside those on order.

One of the interesting aspects of the Ryanair accounts is the continual changing of accounting policy with regard to depreciation.

[slip and turn]

Reminds me of a tv interview the man gave maybe 5 years ago. Forgive me but I must paraphrase from memory:

INTVWR: So just how good a price did you negotiate with Boeing on these new 737-800s?

M'OL: (broad grin) Bejes's, I don't even tell my priest tings like that!

[steamchicken]

One of the interesting aspects of the Ryanair accounts is the continual changing of accounting policy with regard to depreciation.

Cash is king; you can't fake cash. Follow the cash.

That won't be a problem, not when they've still got all those applicants' CVs they can "reconsider" and bill another £50 each.

[Sunfish]

Cash isn't king unless you have no outstanding liabilities.

Accounting 101: "What you are worth is the difference between what you own and what you owe."

As for accounting policy changes, I haven't looked, however my BS meter ticks up a few notches every time I hear someone say that Ryanair is sitting on a mountain of cash. I would also like to know about it's liabilities, and how any off balance sheet transactions are reflected in them.

[rubik101]

Announced today, 17th June 2008.

Ryanair starts 25th Base at Birmingham
& announces A further 9 new routes$700M INVESTMENT TO DELIVER 5M PAX P.A. AND 5,000 JOBS


Ryanair, Europe's largest low fares airline today (Tuesday, 17th
June 2008) started its 25th base in Birmingham. Ryanair also announced today that it will launch 9 new routes to: Alicante, Derry, Fuerteventura, Katowice, Kaunas, Krakow, Palma, Malaga and Murcia in October 2008.

Celebrating Ryanair's 25th base in Birmingham today, Ryanair's Bridget Dowling said:

"There's a double celebration at Birmingham International Airport this week. We're celebrating the arrival of our first based aircraft here and we're also announcing a further 9 new routes which go on sale today. With 32 low fare routes announced from Birmingham to date, people of the West Midlands no longer have to suffer BA high fares or their high fuel surcharges.

"By 2012 , Ryanair's will have aircraft based in Birmingham, which will deliver 5M passengers p. a. sustaining 5,000 jobs. This will equate to £400 million visitor spend for theWest Midlands. While other airlines, like BA, are busy increasing fares and fuel surcharges, Ryanair is guaranteeing the lowest fares and no fuel surcharges.

"To celebrate the start of our new base and the announcement of 9 new routes, Ryanair is offering 35,000 one-way seats from £5* on routes from Birmingham. This special offer must end Thursday midnight so we advise passengers to book their bargain seats today on
www.ryanair.com"...................

So that clears up that little misunderstanding.
Cash strapped, laying off crews, tightening belts, hopeless business model, no future, can't sell aircraft, about to fold.

Any other airline opening new bases and recruiting like crazy? No, I thought not.

You do all write such utter twaddle. Pathetic bunch of scribblers. But still you persist in ignoring the news that you don't want to hear and move on to the next doom-mongering rant about Ryanair. I have no doubt you will not comment on this piece of news as it is just that little bit positive and you just hate anything positive about Ryanair, don't you?

Sad bunch, really sad.

[airfoilmod]

I didn't say o'L can't sell/lease aircraft. I said the market will soon be glutted. You need a shoulder chipectomy, pal.

RGDS Airfoil

[Re-Heat]

I don't recall anyone saying they were going bust. Opening new bases and routes says nothing about those other routes that could be closed / slimmed.

[leeds 65]

Words and phrases such as could,possibly,are they?,i heard etc are rife when it comes to ryanair threads.Give over the lot of you.Ryanair are one of the most transparent and honest 'tell it how it is airlines in europe'.They trumpet there achievements but are also realistic when facing troubled waters.O leary has said constantly to the british media in particular that Ryanair have not hedged accordingly and that there WILL be a big recession which WILL affect the business in the short term.How many other airlines have been so transparent?euromanx=No,Silverjet=No.etc etc.At least with the Ryans you know where you stand

other lesser airlines will almost certainly fold which is what ryr want obviously.Examine history,many millonaires today and big business were successful because when everyone else ran scared they pounced.Ryr still expanding now is an example of masterful business thinking.They WILL downsize to weather the storm and have the capability when the storm turns to clouds to eat market share.

600 jobs to go? pure dogs bolix.Leave will be eaten up by certain pilots over the winter(nice xmas:ok:),they will then work there bolix off and get those 900 hours in the next 9 months.

[JulietNovemberPapa]

Rumour makes the world go round, the world go round, the world go round.

Rumour makes the world go round, we'll create another in the morning.

[rubik101]

Those of you who wish to take the time to investigate the numbers can look at this secret website, known only to a select few, hidden from Joe Citezen's eyes, not to mention Wellington Bomber, Sky9 and Sunfish, amongst others.

[URL="http://www.ryanair.com/site/EN/about.php?sec=download&ref=2007"]http:

Oh goodness me, it was there all the time, for all to see but for most to ignore.

[Sunfish]

Thank you Rubik.

I note that Ryanair is now diverified into:

Paying electricity and gas bills.

Car Insurance

Life Insurance

Home insurance

Taxi service (transfers)

Credit cards

Online Games

An online Casino


It's other diversified activities appear airline and holiday related.

These diversified activities all eventually draw management attention away from Ryaniars core business - which is carrying their customers to where they want to go.

All I can say is that if or when you do go under, it's going to be quite spectacular.

[Wayback]

Whoever started this rumour managed to bait a whole bunch of you pessimists. (Once again!!) :hmm:

[rubik101]

Sunfish, Ryanair will be the last airline to close down, switching off the lights at UK plc when it is declared bankrupt in several years from now.
But it will be the last!

[TheSwede]

In the old days when FR opened a new base they would place a minimum of three aircrafts there. Nowdays it's one.

In the old days when FR opened a new route they would fly it at least daily. Nowdays it's more likely to be twice weekly.

I do fly Ryanair but it's becoming less and less often. Ryanairs prices are going up and other airlines often have similar deals. I do not think Ryanair customers are very loyal as we are used to beeing treated quite badly. If someone else is offering a better or similar deal we will go there instead.

Would it not be a good idee for Ryanair to cash in on a lot of there owned planes and scale down to only fly the most profitable routes?

[Wing Commander Fowler]

Would it not be a good idee for Ryanair to cash in on a lot of there owned planes and scale down to only fly the most profitable routes?

What an amazing idea? Such foresight into the (rather simple) world of running an airline........

Suggest you return to the vegetable patch and bury your head! Jeez hehe! :D

[JulietNovemberPapa]

This thread has no purpose, except to generate a lot of unsubstantiated nonsense. It's based on scaremongering. It's pointless. It should be deleted.

[JOE MAXY]

It wouldnt surprise me if the thread was started by management...scaremonger the employees to accept a new deal.maybe i've been subject to colleagues paranoia for too long.

Just a point that seems to have been overlooked by all but a few. The possibility of job losses is unlikely. the company will have contractors not flying(flying very little) for 3 months.that i can see for sure.

[I Just Drive]

You know its iffy as it was started by a line captain. Everyone knows they are the last ones to know anything.

[rubik101]

Just which base is it you refer to Swede?
Are 32 destinations from Birmingham possible with just one aircraft?
Would you please do a minimum of research before you write garbage, as so many others do, write garbage I mean.

[lexoncd]

With an annual limit of 900 hours its common sense to follow what the charter guys have simply done for years. Fly to the max in the higher revenue summer months and scale back the operation during the winter when revenues are lower.

Nothing new here.

Where does the rule book of running an airline state you should have the same frequency to all destinations year round. Increase winter sport based and maintain city destinations whilst reducung regional French destinations.....

[stansdead]

I think it unlikely that 600 pilots would be laid off.

However, Ryanair are unhedged (it's for gardeners according to O'Leary) and the oil price is stubbornly high. This winter will be bad for everyone, but for those unhedged, if the oil price stays high, it will be AWFUL.

You can't buck a fact, but you can buck a trend. This hiigh oil price is a FACT, it's here to stay at higher levels than we are used to.

The trick is for FR to find a way of keeping us flying. And with us all feeling the pinch, that could be tough.

[ExMedevac]

nobody is hedged forever, sooner or later all airlines' hedging contracts will expire.

[SR71]

If you buy a new 738, post 9/11 for 50% of "RRP", for arguments sake, and the market value for a old 738 collapses to 50% of "RRP", you're hardly out of pocket are you?

[Buzzdoff]

I have not had the time to read the whole of this thread but from the inside it is obvious that you worry too much on our account. I wish I had time to fully indulge in rumour websites but we are all to busy here driving full loads round Europe (in our worthless 738s). The biggest 'Problems at RYR' are high ZFWs and getting the SLF off and on in 25 minutes.

Thanx for your concern though!

BD

[Deano777]

Buzzdof

Any business needs "added value" to pay wages etc, and even loss making routes etc are added value, most businesses need this, but sooner or later if you fill up your business with loss making added value you are going to find it tough, this is why it doesn't matter diddly squat whether your planes are full or not, if the returns aren't there (I'm not saying they're not - yet) then times are going to be tough, this sentiment is true for any business / airline.

Good luck

[Wing Commander Fowler]

Joe Maxy

Just a point that seems to have been overlooked by all but a few. The possibility of job losses is unlikely. the company will have contractors not flying(flying very little) for 3 months.that i can see for sure.

Not at all for sure there....... History shows the contractors have been flying good hours in the past and I think that may continue in the future. Most companies would choose to fly their full time guys hardest as they do not become so expensive as they fly more. FR don't (for some reason) seem to worry about that and actually do the reverse! Go figure :hmm:

[RAT 5]

Contractors are way cheaper than employees. If said employees take unpaid leave and contractors fly the routes the airline saves money.

[limagolf]

Not so sure about that RAT 5 !!
A contractor costs about
135 * 1000 SCHEDULE BLOCK HOURS= 135000 EUROS (per year)
How much do you think the average FR employee costs ??

[cockney steve]

The TRUE cost of directly -employed labour is approximately DOUBLE the wage!

Holiday-pay, sickness-pay, recruitment and HR personnel. Health and Safety wallahs, (not to mention the protective gear/signs/systems,to save Darwin candidates from their own stupidity) Plus the admin and pen-pushers to make it all happen.
Maternity/paternity leave........someone pays,-It's the PUNTER! Yes, the SLF pays all this on their ticket-price.

How come Tesco and their ilk can make profits to cover fancy developments,car-parking, etc. whilst the small corner-store goes bust????

VOLUME! Ryanair is the " Aldi" or" Lidl " of the airline-business.

Absoloutely basic, no-frills,COMMODITY service....they flog transport to the punter,at rock-bottom....punters wanting something better can go to Easy/Flybe or the like. Those who hope for a quality -product,go for the "M&S" service of BA...(unfortunately, they haven't found a Stuart Rose to drag them out of the crap....fancy packaging stripped away reveals a product little different to RYR,at magnitudes dearer.

Love him or hate him, MOL has targeted the "pile high,sell cheap" market.

His cattle-trucks are modern, clean,prompt and reliable,but most importantly.

AFFORDABLE TO THE PUNTER...I used them last year, without that low price transport,I wouldn't have considered my first foreign holiday.

Package tours are a different animal altogether.
I predict that Ryanair will continue to thrive....they're lean,productive and supply a product that's chosen by a huge sector.

The Elitists should pull their head out of the sand....the world has moved on and the "Orient-Eexpess" era has gone,for good.

Sorry for the thread-drift...I understand the pain,but see the reality.

[Re-Heat]

How come Tesco and their ilk can make profits to cover fancy developments,car-parking, etc. whilst the small corner-store goes bust????

VOLUME! Ryanair is the " Aldi" or" Lidl " of the airline-business.
No, it is efficiency. You confuse scale efficiencies with large businesses per se. You cannot multiply a loss-making business by a factor of 10, as that would compound the loss.

Ryanair operates efficiently at all levels - being large per se does not particularly deliver the profit margin except to the extent of scale marketing and the website; Tesco utilises mass savings on fuel, transportation, purchasing etc to deliver higher margins than the corner shop - something it could only do with size.

The Elitists should pull their head out of the sand....the world has moved on and the "Orient-Eexpess" era has gone,for good.
However, proven marketing theory says there is space for both. Hence those who swear never to fly Ryanair, and pay for BA every time.

[JOE MAXY]

wing commander

"History has shown....." diddly squat....There was internal politics behind some of those decisions to fly contractors before employees, much of which was signed away with the new contract. ASk yourself how many contractors received their full month A/L in months other than NOV,JAN or FEB. I havent come across a single one yet.Contractors Will be flying less this winter period.

[Wing Commander Fowler]

Politics? There will always be politics - no escaping it! They have been flying contractors hard since 2001 and probably long before that so what's about to change?

Leave??? And the bearing of that on who flies the 900 per annum is what exactly?

Lets come back to this one mid winter and see who was right........

[RAT 5]

Lima Golf:

135euros x 900hrs = +/- 120,000euros. No extras and no pay if your are sick or don't fly for any reason.

Advertised RYR captains salary upto 140.000euros. + many fringe benefits PLUS RYR has to pay certain goverment contributions. The total package will cost well above 180,000euros. Thus BRK are cheaper.
Come to think of it if RYR lay off F/O's on unpaid leave, but still continue to recruit newbees, they save again because of the very low pay to newbees during line training.

Question: If RYR are to ground 20 a/c why are they still training newbees? Is it becasue they have contracts with outside TRTO's and it doesn't cost them anything if they delay their joining date?

[wbryce]

the pay scheme to new cadet FO's changed recently.

release of safety pilot to line check - EU60 less EU15 (line training charge)
<500hrs EU60
>500hrs EU80
>1500 EU85

All above are per scheduled block hour and is assuming your based. Your charged EU4.5 per scheduled block hour on all rates for recurrent training but this is claimed back. I'm unsure if the EU15 can be claimed.

[Nicoals]

This forum is full of alot of hot air. 600 pilots come on do you think they would be still be training so many more pilots and getting so many more a/c if they were bout to lay off more pilots? The facts are everyone is going to cut back and RY, easyjet will move in on other airlines routes and continue to grow. This is sep 11th happening all over again...

[Tolan]

This forum is full of alot of hot air. 600 pilots come on do you think they would be still be training so many more pilots and getting so many more a/c if they were bout to lay off more pilots?

It doesn't cost FR to train their pilots, and they only get paid if they fly, so no money lost by FR on the overstocking of pilots.

[MarkD]

is there any "news" left on this thread? I think not.

[On-MarkBob]

600 pilots = about 60 aircraft! They curently have 120. So that means they are going to halve their fleet, I can't see that happening. Maybe 600 staff over the whole company, but I seriously doubt that they will lay off that many pilots.

[1800ed]

Thank you Rubik.

I note that Ryanair is now diverified into:

Paying electricity and gas bills.

Car Insurance

Life Insurance

Home insurance

Taxi service (transfers)

Credit cards

Online Games

An online Casino


It's other diversified activities appear airline and holiday related.

These diversified activities all eventually draw management attention away from Ryaniars core business - which is carrying their customers to where they want to go.

All I can say is that if or when you do go under, it's going to be quite spectacular.All of the services they offer appear to be affiliate schemes which are fairly simple to setup and can make a few extra bucks. Especially if you have a website which generates a lot of traffic, which i'm sure Ryanair's website does.

[limagolf]

RAT 5
Ryanair pays schedule block hours (around 1000hrs) not actual flown hours .

What Ryanair advertises and what they actually pays STANDARD captains differs a lot, everybody knows that by now.(its more like 110000 €):ugh:

And finally; after having been off sick you will fly max hours when you return to work and still deliver 900 hrs.

[EI-CFC]

These diversified activities all eventually draw management attention away from Ryaniars core business - which is carrying their customers to where they want to go.

As pointed out, all these activities are merely "branded" - they're operated by others and have nothing to do with FR, except that FR get some commission in exchange for their brand and the traffic. So unless the money coming in distracts them, I think we needn't overly worry that the Ryanair credit card will be the ruination of FR ;)

[top jock]

They have 165 aircraft now and no more coming from SEA till Sept.

[macker]

RYR drivers: don't worry, there is still plenty of work (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UfIY24BErBE&eurl=http://www.politicaonline.net/forum/showthread.php?t=442677) for you at RYR...

[essexboy]

Although this whole thread is complete nonsense a point of fact. It doesn’t matter who is cheaper (contractor or permi). If you have one contractor and one permi for one job you cant make the permi redundant. You can stop using the services of the contractor though. The point is you can only make a job redundant not a person. If there is a job/position you can’t make an employee redundant and then give that job to a contractor.

[I Just Drive]

Essexboy is on the money. If you make someone redundant from a job, they have to be offered it back again before you can employ someone else. Therefore how could you lay anyone off with 100+ aircraft still coming. That said, the BRK guys can be told 'sorry chaps, not needed til April see you then and don't do any non RYR flying in the meantime cos we want your 900 hrs'.

[CamelhAir]

Circa 40 aircraft coming this year BUT many been sold on. Net fleet increase is minimal.
Fact: unpaid leave being offered to permanent employees.
Fact: contractors can (and will) be given less flying. Nothing illegal with this, nobody redundant. The contractors are about to reap the whirlwind.
It all looked good when they were getting paid lots and evading tax. Less rosy when the tax man starts taking interest and the income stops.

[slip and turn]

If there is a job/position you can’t make an employee redundant and then give that job to a contractor.... yes, quite so, ... according to UK law ... but it's about as effective as chocolate teapot in practise (in UK) ... mainly because effective collective employee representation in such matters is so rare.

[beernice]

New contracts (incl base transfers) now contain a paragraph allowing the company to place you on unpaid leave at the discretion of the company.

[JOE MAXY]

beernice

Are you serious?

[the grim repa]

no doubt that some pilots are really idiots.in that i include the majority of ryanair pilots.

[MorningGlory]

I can understand the cadets, but why would anyone ever choose to work for a company and management like O'Learys Ryanair and his sidekicks?

Convenience.. base close to home, can see that, but with clauses in your contracts as above....:ugh:

[lexoncd]

It is a general principle of Uk employment legislation that an employer may temporarily lay you off without actually making you redundant. It's intention was to allow for employers that may have a seasonal peak demand for their services followed by a slow down. An example would be seasonal gift or produce suppliers....Turkey farmers!!!

There is a difference between this and actual redundancy.

Now in doing so they have to pay you your basic salary unless its written into any agreement that there is a reduced pay. Obviously no sector pay..

[Ellsam]

The threat of laying off 600-All part of the masterplan.
It has been discussed to death and cadets are cheap to run and established contractors are not.
It has all been said but with quite an easy conversion from ng to 777 and going over the pond on the horizon as discussed so well recently by MOL. Yet still more shock tactics to gain custom, boring! 75 to old and 76 hard to get hold of he will continue to cut back at ryr then bring along the new long haul operation and give the people put in an awkward position at ryr the opportunity to fly trans -atlantic for yet more down-graded terms and conditions. They will not want to accept but will have to as they have mortgages, families etc and thus the cycle will begin again.
I have been there I did enjoy it to some extent but do hope all my friends in the company are ok and not shafted.
The base issue well divide and conquer need I say more, as old as the hills.
The leave issue well a joke as you would expect the longterm future ok but until the old guard accept that it was them constantly laying down to MOL that has lead to some percentage of this issue how can things move on.
All airlines will try to follow the MOL model for employee treatment but until someone turns around and says no it will continue over and over until pilots once paid as a professional people will be working for the minimum wage.

[ciderman]

I have followed this thread with interest but from another perspective. I am about to retire after over 40 years in aviation. Made no money but had a great time, military and then civvie , F/O, Captain, trainer, TRE, the usual pogression. Never did lo-co either, luckily.
I now see the low cost model well entrenched in our society and wonder how trainee frozen ATPL's from Oxford and other places are going to face 40 years of 900 hours a year short haul high density flying in a European environment. As I see it very little opportunity will present itself to the majority to break free into long haul or other flying even if oil doesn't go to $200 a barrel. Can they stand it? Time will tell. Is there another model? I think not.
MOL and others like him will continue to exploit willing pilots just as deviously as he cons passengers because of the glamorous image of the job. Officialdom will keep on intruding into the flight deck, to say nothing of the brain dead jobsworths who make our lives diffcult at security.
I'm not wishing my life away but I'm not sure I'd go into aviation now if I were 40 years younger. Must go, first tee beckons!!

[Coquelet]

So, "MOL cons passengers" ?
I am a frequent RYR passenger, and I don't feel cheated. I would sure feel cheated and stupid were I flying on a legacy carrier and paying ten times as much.
The aviation of 40 years ago is over. Wake up.

[The Real Slim Shady]

This thread has generated 8 pages of conjecture.

Ryanair has offered unpaid leave over the winter to flightcrew: that is not 600 flightcrew.

There is no evidence of 600 lay offs, so can we either change the title, or close the thread or accept that this is all fantasy.

[bia botal]

exactly shady, not only are they not laying off, but more planes coming, more pilots being hired and 3 new bases soon to be announced, economies go up and down, at the moment we are in a down, the price of oil is up, that will mean that every thing will increase in price, including airfares and there will be a new base that is considered a cheap fare.

[Fullblast]

no doubt that some pilots are really idiots.in that i include the majority of ryanair pilots.


That means you're one of them, right?

FB

[WindSheer]

I have followed this thread with interest but from another perspective. I am about to retire after over 40 years in aviation. Made no money but had a great time, military and then civvie , F/O, Captain, trainer, TRE, the usual pogression.

Dont mean this in anway sarcastic, but what have you been doing wrong?
One would guess that you were on £70k plus as a cpt?
That is certainly making money...!!!:confused:

[BOAC]

Probably like me, Windsheer? With 'multiple careers' like ciderman and me, you do not have the 35 years 'man and boy' BA type career where you retire on a pension of over £100k.

Still, we have had fun!

[fireflybob]

Still, we have had fun!

BOAC, snap! Would not have changed any of it although if you had told me when I was 21 years where I would have gone in my career I would have laughed at you!

[the grim repa]

fullblast - i must be.i am still here.

[Leo Hairy-Camel]

fullblast - i must be.i am still here.
That's one possibility, Didimus, but convincing anyone else that your whiney, twisted thinking is worthy of employment was always going to be like pushing custard up hill. Come on now, Did, tell the truth. Who'd have you?

[potters tiger]

Speaking of which..anyone know of a Gavin R (Rhyms with Bramley) now working in the middle east. Many varied stories about this little fellow and his shortcomings(pardon the pun) Dish the dirt?

[the grim repa]

hello again leo.no latin this time and a rather shortened post from normal.not up to your usual standard.possibly a knee jerk reaction,maybe you need to relax a little.
heard the one about fr laying off pilots one by one and then paying them off,in the courts.
sticks and stones,baby.sticks and stones!!!

come along now big boy.you can do much better than that.a+ in latin.d- in the rest.

speaking about being had???look behind you!!

[ShortfinalFred]

Hey, what happened to the thread where Leo the Hairy Whatsit claimed Ryanair were "more like an Air Force"...ha ha ha. My response was that an Air Force had standards which was more than Ryanair did. Never saw anyone on a Squadron sleeping in their car before a trip and living in fear of the bank manager or the rent man. Anyway, in light of Leo the Hairy Camels' latest piece of hubris about Ryanair beingmore like an "Air Force" (AS IF) than an airline, I have a new nickname for his shameful outfit - shameful as their treatment of their people is beyond disgusting....

- its RAF,

- yes, Ryan Air Farce , thats Farce with an A!

Keep playing the country squire in your manor, "Leo", you'd deserve it if you weren't such a shameful mill owner.

[JulietNovemberPapa]

Hardly surprising that it was deleted: it went a billion miles off course. It declined into another let's-moan-about-MOL-and-FR fest. Read ShortfinalFred's reply and it's evidently about to recommence. If people could refrain from such comments and discuss the topic in a civilised and relevant manner I'm sure it'd be better for all and still around.

[SpringHeeledJack]

Said thread is now resident of JetBlast, re-named and positioned for 'spotters and muppets' :}


Regards


SHJ

[SpringHeeledJack]

Thanks for that SJH, I take it we'll see you there....?


Already there, bought up all the best seats and awaiting you with anticipation ;)


Regards


SHJ

[ShortfinalFred]

Hey, I'm serious, if Ryanair are like an "Airforce" then I am Mr Universe - they are both statements with about as much credibility. If Leo wants to make an assertion like that, its open to challenge. I still maintain its a ridiculous thing for Leo to say and his treatment of employees proves that. How many court cases now?

[SpringHeeledJack]

Its not me you want to watch out for, its Leo Hairycamel, hes hilarious, particularly on this thread, he normally doesn't respond to direct questions but hes biting on this thread for some reason.....

Perhaps that might be because this is a pivotal point and like those few hours between dark night and the light of dawn the inner child seeks to scare away the demons floating around Gigginstown :suspect:

"Bíonn grásta Dé idir an diallait agus an talamh."


Regards


SHJ

[MPH]

Enough ´mud´slinging!! What if, Fr is about to reduce it´s personeel which, I doubt will add up to the 600. But, it´s still a big company with 53 million pax´s and certainly a very large body of flight crew.The world economy has forced comany´s to take measures. One of them is, the reduction in it´s work force. What´s the difference, if United, BA,AZ or any other airline doing the same? Whether you like or not the likes of an FR that´s, something else! But, up till now I have not seen anybody offering an alternative sugestion to the problems airlines or any other company´s are going through. Let´s see what the barrel does!!!!
´Deo volente´these reductions will not happen.:)

[cfwake]

MPH

I can only strenuously apologise for what I am about to do, as it's completely off topic, however it is one of the bugbears that used to get me in enormous trouble with my primary school headmistress, the scariest woman on the face of the known earth!

it's = meaning it is, for example 'it's bloody cold today!'

its = meaning belonging to it, for example 'reduce it´s personnel', which currently means 'reduce it is personnel' and not 'reduce the personnel who belong to it'

Company's is also incorrect; this, in its current context, means 'that which belongs to the company', for example, 'the company's profits', the plural of company is companies.

I will apologise again for one of the more anal threads on this forum, I assure you that I'm not a complete chopper in real life...just on this forum!

[cfwake]

I don't, I'll hasten to add, know what Deo Volente means, I don't have a job and I only passed my IR yesterday (whoop) so don't take it too personally!!

[MPH]

CFWAKE:

Appologies for the slip in my grammar! You are right....but, we still have a topic? In the mean time ´carpe diem´.:)

[MPH]

CFWAKE:
Deo Volente´ latin for God willing´.
:)

[cfwake]

Well I can't see and Oxford Aviation bashing on this page so I was assuming we were still on topic!

Just FYI, if other people haven't mentioned this already, my understanding of the Ryanair grounded fleet situation (may be different to the redundancies) is that they have grounded 15 every year for a few years now, they are simply grounding those again then not putting onto the line those aeroplanes that they're getting between now and the end of the year...

I like Deo Volente, I will try to use it more!!!

[LCYslicker]

Sorry - RY grounded only 7 STN aircraft last winter, partly to try to 'discipline' BAA (who was radically increasing STN per pax charges, as permitted by its regulator, the CAA), and partly to reduce winter losses on seasonal 'sun' routes. Since then, fuel has risen by $60-80/bbl (depending on which month you pick), so the rationale NOT to fly a/c in the loss-making winter is even larger.

Secondly, $130/140/bbl fuel is, in my view, much more of a worry for long-haul airlines, simply because they are up there burning the tripled-price Jet A1 for 10-12 hours, not 1-2. LHR/SYD should sell for at least £1500 round-trip to cover the average cost per seat, but was recently on sale at circa £600 - so the base fare needs to DOUBLE in order to cover today's average cost. What will demand for seats do when the price is doubled? Collapse. Even if J travellers are not price-sensitive, the back of the bus will be very weak, and flights will start losing money because the economy cabin will no longer cover its direct average costs.

And what does Joe Public do when SYD/HKG/LAX etc become too expensive? He still takes his family on hols, but will go short-haul, not long-haul, to avoid the high fares. So, in my view, LCCs get some pax trading down into their market, replacing the pax who can't afford it at all.

I'd therefore be more worried about the long-haul business model than the LCCs' model at $130-140/bbl oil combined with recession. Even $100 oil and recession would be a huge problem for long-haul leisure travel. Read the financial press - that's not a wacky theory, it's consensus thinking.

[Cloud Bunny]

Secondly, $130/140/bbl fuel is, in my view, much more of a worry for long-haul airlines, simply because they are up there burning the tripled-price Jet A1 for 10-12 hours

True, but FR utilise their aeroplanes for longer than 12 hours per day and we are going up and down like a wh*res drawers burning fuel at inefficient lower levels for a longer period during that 12 hours + than the 747 heading to LAX. Just my humble thought. :O

[captjns]

True, but FR utilise their aeroplanes for longer than 12 hours per day and we are going up and down like a wh*res drawers burning fuel at inefficient lower levels for a longer period during that 12 hours + than the 747 heading to LAX.

True about the fuel burn. But with an average of 6 sectors per plane per day. that is a potential of 1134 pax generating fairly decent revenue too... versus one 12 hour sector for the whale carrying about 400 pax.

[peter we]

No matter how many pax they have they are not covering the cost of the fuel to fly them. The more they fly, the more they lose.

[LCYslicker]

All fair points. However, if long-haul economy fares have to double to cover the fuel cost, along with recession/credit crunch/inflation/falling household income, many leisure pax will trade down to save money - "not LA this year, family, let's go to the Med". Short-haul in general picks this traffic up, partially compensating for the really cheap RY customer who stops flying because of the fare increase to cover fuel. My point is that long-haul does not have anything to replace the lost traffic, which is why I think it's more vulnerable in the coming downturn. I think there'll be some B744s joining RY's B738s on the ground for the winter.

[brakedwell]

All fair points. However, if long-haul economy fares have to double to cover the fuel cost, along with recession/credit crunch/inflation/falling household income, many leisure pax will trade down to save money - "not LA this year, family, let's go to the Med".

They could always holiday in LA, Sussex. Little 'Ampton that is. :)

[Re-Heat]

Studi's post is a very succinct and readable description of the Ryanair business model - excellent.

[rubik101]

peter we states, rather abruptly;

No matter how many pax they have they are not covering the cost of the fuel to fly them. The more they fly, the more they lose.

This statement of fact is presumably made after referring to some facts and figures produced by Ryanair; would you care to share the scource with us mere mortals?

As much as some of you try to stereotype the passengers of Ryanair most of you fail by a wide margin. Your assumption that they are low income chavs who go on drunken shopping trips a few times a year is very wide of the mark.

These are facts, not spurious and inaccurate thoughts plucked from thin air as some of you choose to do. Most of the passengers on any of the flights to central or Southern France, Spain and Italy, for example, are owners of homes in the region. They are well-off, high income and regular travelers and hardly fit your fond image of them, I'm afraid. They are also very happy to be flying to these more remote airfields as they are closer, in many cases, to their homes. You think Ryanair flies to Bezier or Pau just for the fun of it?

They, like most sensible people, know that prices have risen and they are quite happy to pay more for their trip to their second home. Knowing that the fares are rising from a low baseline to a new, more realistic baseline, will not stop them from flying with Ryanair.

Indeed, those with houses in Florida are more likely to reduce the frequency of their trips than those in the South of France!

[lgw_warrior]

I agree completely with the last post,people still have to fly.

Also,Peter we,have you got figures to support your theories?ie pax loads,average ticket prices,operating cost per seat etc?or is this like your previuos thread...

Ryanair cancelling flights!!!!!!!

so they cancelled one flight,and gave you six days notice...hmmmm

i see they have now cancelled your thread,
next post reads,

Pprune cancelling threads!!!!!!

but seriously peter,you need to put up some figures if you want us to believe!

warrior.

[Ancient Observer]

Rubik is right about who travels on the low cost carriers. Whilst pax experience of these might be sometines that the chavs have been let loose, the CAA published a report about 18-24 months ago pointing out that the "working class" had not been liberated by low cost carriers, rather the middle class were simply taking 3 or 4 flight based trips whereas in the past they might have taken one. The Labour Govt. did not give too much publicity to the report as they had fondly believed that the low cost carriers were doing a service for their voters.
Thus, the continued growth of Ryaneasy, (is there a good anagram of that?) is dependant on the middle classes being prepared to spend their disposable income on travel.
The CAA also pointed out that Ryaneasy had not grown the market - they had simply nicked the growth that the chartered and legacy folk thought they were going to get.

[lederhosen]

Studi's point, that we do not know what is going to happen next, is spot on. However despite whatever we might individually wish (obviously the majority of us do not work for Ryanair), a lot of experts do think they will be amongst the survivors.

Look at the US, where the fuel price is hurting even more due to there being no currency gains partially offsetting the increase. The company that is doing best is Southwest. Whilst we all know there are lots of differences, particularly in company culture, fact is that Ryanair has openly based itself on the Southwest model.

[peter we]

This statement of fact is presumably made after referring to some facts and figures produced by Ryanair; would you care to share the scource with us mere mortals?

I simply got a calculator and worked out how much Ryanair's fuel bill would be this year by looking at lasts years 800million euro bill. You can also work out how much fuel per Km and the load factor and it still looks terrible. Last years 44euro tickets for 51 million pax will just about cover the fuel bill.

As studi points out, the bottom end of the market is more price sensitive, thats a long standing principle. Against that you have the idea of people moving down market to save money.

I agree completely with the last post,people still have to fly.

Obviously that's not true, especially for short haul.

[befree]

Only half the UK population fly in a given year. That has been true for the last 6 years. What has changed is those who fly have been taking more trips each year. That can change back. The Ryanair model is based on getting the planes used all year.

The UK mostly goes to the Euro Zone for that weekend break. The high Euro makes that hurt every time you have a beer. It also changes the balance of profit growth between EZJ (who report in pounds) and Ryanair (who report in Euors).

The CAA data shows the departures in UK were down 1% on the year before. The sector length is rising quickly for EZJ and RYA as they try to get a bigger market. Now we have the housing crash will will kill of the growth of east european builders flying in and out of the UK. My guess is we will see a small year on year drop in flying in the UK for the next few years. Worst affected is going to be Ryanair.

[MPH]

51 million x 44 euros per pax= 2,2 billion euros aprox. Unless you know the operating costs of FR its, difficult to tell what the profits wil be this year. The fact of the matter is that they did make a profit last year!

[peter we]

The fuel bill has gone up a least 800million (the fuel figures are in the company results for last year) because the oil price has at least doubled. There is no argument about this - MOL has said they won't make a profit a these prices and breaking even will be a good performance.

[JulietNovemberPapa]

With few exceptions, MOL intentionally plays down performance rather than being jubilant. Add that to the fact that we have no idea about whether FR would generate net profit, reach breakeven or make a loss at $130. I suspect he's doing what he often does: playing it down. Time will, of course, tell.


The fact of the matter is that they did make a profit last year!

Their record in fact: €480.9m net.

[Xeque]

Why fly with all that attendant hassle when you can go by train or coach for much less cost. OK - it might look as if it will take a couple of hours more to get to where you want to be but compare how much time it takes 'DOOR TO DOOR'. You might be very surprised!
The trains and buses are less cramped and you can take all the drinks and food and aftershave you want with you - no questions asked.
During my last visits to the UK I used National Coaches extensively. Because I am over 60 years old they gave me discounts too!
Forget the airlines. Compare the prices and travel times of the Railways too. There is always a much cheaper alternative to flying.
Don't be conned by the hype. It is sometimes a great deal more convenient and speedy and less expensive to use the 'old fashioned' means of travel.
PS. And that includes travel to European and Mediterranean destinations too! Perhaps the whole Ryanair - Easyjet - et al experience was but a 'blip' and is about to disappear having been proven to be unworkable?

[lgw_warrior]

Ok,im not an acountant,and hope somebody on here can work on this so as to come up with an acurate set of figures,anyway,heres a start

sector 2hrs at 2.4t per hour,so fuel burn is approx 4.8t

@ 900e per ton = 4320e for fuel
crew costs = 1500e ?
maintainance = 2000e ?
aircraft lease = 1000e ?
airway/landing = 1500e ?
total = 10320e


so with 189 pax,break even would be around 55e,add airport tax etc approx about 85e average fare on a full aircraft,sounds reasonable?bear in mind that some people will pay less,but most will pay a lot more.

also noted that oil has droped today to 124 a barrel,thats good news!

warrior.

[rubik101]

peter we, you do talk twaddle. How on earth can you possibly know what the fuel bill for Ryanair will be, or any other airline, come to that? If you have a crystal ball, please let us know and we can use it to foretell the winner of the Derby next year. You also point out that people do not have to fly, in particular, those who use short-haul. Which book of facts did that come from, or was that also plucked from the crystal ball? I could as easily write that long-haul will be the first to suffer any downturn and it would be just as much twaddle as your statement.

Befree, you seem to be of the impression that all Ryanair passengers originate in the UK, they don't. Most of them live in the euro zone and they travel within the euro zone or to the UK so how is it bad for Ryanair that they report their accounts in euros? You also say that half the people in the UK fly every year; again, this is wrong. Many passengers fly several times a year, as many of Ryanair passenger do. And on what basis do you write that Ryanair will suffer more than any other airline? More mythical facts, together with dubious, badly understood and poorly interpreted statistics lead us to read yet even more twaddle.

Xeque, have you seriously studied the cost/km for trains v planes? Not only will you pay three times the price to enjoy your leisurely trip by train, you will simply never find a reasonable timetable to get you from Birmingham, Bournemouth or Belfast to Bezier, Bratislava or Budapest. The comparison is just not realistic. London to Leeds perhaps, but for the others, forget it.

Twaddle, unless you are over 60 and have unlimited time of course.

Studi, you are comparing apples and oranges. Ryanair do not operate long-haul so have no comparison to make. I have direct knowledge of the fact that many of Ryanair's and easyJet's customers are middle-class, above average income owners of second homes in Europe. You can deny it but it doesn't make the fact go away. They are well able to spend a little more of their considerable disposable income on their regular trips to their holiday homes. Again, more twaddle.

[peter we]

How on earth can you possibly know what the fuel bill for Ryanair will be,

I don't know... maybe because they state the exact figure (791.3 million euros ($1.23 billion).) in their annual results and a simple maths shows what the un-hedged cost will be, given basically the same schedule.

Here's the figures
Ryanair profits fall on fuel costs, takeover bid: Associated Press Business News - MSN Money (http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=AP&date=20080603&id=8719968)

You also point out that people do not have to fly, in particular, those who use short-haul. Which book of facts did that come from, or was that also plucked from the crystal ball?

Every heard of cars, ships or trains?

[Facelookbovvered]

Who cares?


Ryanair are a strange animal in many respect, not least in having a gob****e for a CEO, but that aside they make a lot of money (for now) on buying aircraft dirt cheap off the back of a post 9/11 deal.

[Coquelet]

@ Xeque :
I routinely fly from Charleroi to Italy (Rome, Bergamo, Treviso) or to Ireland and return, with Ryanair, for 60 euros at the most, and more often less (sometimes even for 8,02 euros, credit card fee included).
How could you do it more cheaply by train or even by coach ? And there are even no direct trains between Belgium and Italy ...
Note : Ireland as well as most European countries are all in the Euro zone - only Great Britain remains in its pound sterling hermitage ...

[JulietNovemberPapa]

Most of this thread has, as always, descended into unrelated nonsense. Moderators really ought to ensure the thread remains on topic, rather than just permitting another round of muck.

[londonmet]

Most of this thread has, as always, descended into unrelated nonsense. Moderators really ought to ensure the thread remains on topic, rather than just permitting another round of muck.

Here here. Although that said this site is quite hard to moderate, what with all the riff raff in here. What makes me laugh though is that they are so quick to close politcally incorrect threads (in any format) yet they let a thread like this end up as utter tosh.

L Met

[openfly]

I want to thank MOLly for my recent trips on FR. I bought 4 round trips to DUB and SNN for free...no taxes or anything. (well MOLly's free is actually £1.50 per ticket charge for debit cards!). But we didnt buy coffee or food and didnt pay for any luggage or insurance, so they were a bargain. We have just bought some more tickets for £1 to DUB from LGW, no taxes...hey good value again!
Lots of our airline friends and colleagues are buying them...cheaper than staff travel! And if you dont travel you have lost nothing and MOLly cant sell the seats for a higher fare at a later date.
If we dont take advantage of these 'free seats' before FR goes bust there may not be another chance! Why does he do it!?
Thanks again Michael...we all love your free tickets.

[Bose Wave]

make no mistake, FR is not going bust, if they did the skies would be a seriously quiet place as most other operators would have gone bust long before them. FR will be amongst the last airlines standing. Rememer they are a cash rich company with a couple of billion in the bank to weather hard times, others are struggling to make a profit with mounting debts !

[LCYslicker]

Bose Wave = correct - RY's financial strength (net cash in balance sheet, and B738 book values way under market price, even after recession) means it will be one of the last ones standing.

Studi - go look at the CAA's data about LCC pax income profile vs BA etc - you'll be shocked to see that RY flies a mix of pax that's not dissimilar to your beloved network majors. Even though there's no service, people still like a cheap price. And I stick with my point that the long-haul families will still take holidays, but just short-haul for a couple of years while the fuel price is so high - so short-haul carriers have trade-down business that the long-haul guys won't have, to replace the stuff that stops flying due to squeezed household income. I really wouldn't be bearish about the futures of RY and EZ, no matter that they don't make profits for one year and the stock market chooses to trash their share prices....

[Gnirren]

Bose is correct in my opinion, Ryanair will be one of the last standing if the industry continues to go south. If there's ever a pilot shortage they will simply absorb the pilots from companies that go bust, and move in to claim the markets that open up from it. To break even is still quiet a feat with the current oil prices. Another thing that makes FR dangerous apart from their low overhead and cash reserves is the fact that much of their revenue comes from other sources like hotels and car rentals. MOL does envision travel where the fare itself is free does he not? Like them or not I imagine it's one of the few companies where you can expect a relatively stable career.

[stormin norman]

'you can expect a relatively stable career'

Pensions a bit iffy though !

[Sunfish]

RY's financial strength (net cash in balance sheet, and B738 book values way under market price, even after recession) means it will be one of the last ones standing.

B.S. pure and simple. You have no idea what Ryanair's liabilities are, especially if some of them are "off balance sheet".

As for the aircraft valuation, do you seriously think dumping 100+ 737 on a market is going to get you a good price?

You are whistling past the graveyard.

The only observation you can make at present is that Ryanair is solvent at present and it's Directors believe today that it will continue to remain so, since trading when insolvent will see the Directors in big trouble.

Also note that due to the simply huge cashflows involved in running an airline, when things go bad, they go bad very, very quickly - in a matter of a few weeks or less, and the first people who know are the fuel suppliers.

[whatdoesthisbuttondo]

Why anybody would want to work for ryanair is beyond me. They might be making money but they must be one of the worst employers around.

If Ryanair laid off 100s of pilots I'm sure they would all look back and recognise it was for the best in the long run when they got a job with a decent operator.

[crewcostundercontrol]

Thats Correct

[MPH]

WHATDOESTHISBUTTONDO: Why anybody would want to work for ryanair is beyond me.´
Maybe the only employer around that was employing? What kind of a remark is that! If other airlines and their some around, are employing. Then why would you not go and work for them. Or, should these aspiring airline pilots wait for the hiring boom to arrive? Say what you want but, due to the econoimical situation, that´s been on the negative side for somewhile now. The oportunities did come from the likes of FR,EZ and others.:=

[whatdoesthisbuttondo]

I just hope Ryanair pilots don't go around complaining at their ever reducing Ts and Cs when they move on to a better airline, which were caused by Ryanair pilots accepting such poor ones at the bottom of the market in the first place.

What I don't like about Ryanair is that the pilots are driving down Ts and Cs for everyone else. Every pay deal airline management look at Ryanair and think, well if those guys work so hard for so little with such rubbish Ts and Cs lets try it on our own workforce.

Sure, go there for a first job but you are shooting yourselves in the foot in the long run. I doubt anybody in the industry blames Ryanair management for exploiting people in this way, it's the pilots fault for accepting it.

As I said if Ryanair lays you off 100s of pilots, they'll be doing you a favour.

[captjns]

I don't know given the current state of the economy and strenghts of airlines in the free western world, FR's pay isn't all that bad along with their rosters.

[graviton]

“As I said if Ryanair lays you off 100s of pilots, they'll be doing you a favour.”

I see, if 100s of pilots lose their jobs it might improve your future T & Cs. I expect they’ll be massive resignations now to help you out

If your airline lays off people who make foolish comments on this website, they’ll be doing all of us a favour!

Incidentally, I guess the button is to switch off the brain.

[LCYslicker]

Sunfish: Sorry, but it's you who doesn't understand finance. I said 'net cash' because that is net of any debt. RY owns most of its planes outright, and any mortgage debt is deducted to reach the net cash position. Off-balance-sheet liabilities are some 10 operating-leased 738s - capitalising them gives RY a net debt figure that simply does not register any concern in the banking world. Sure, we can all see that RY is an abrasive employer (but note that Lufthansa is about to have strikes from cabin and ground staff), but I'm afraid it is simply tosh to suggest that RY will get into financial trouble before the rest of the industry.

[rubik101]

RYR have 2 billion euros in cash reserves, not 20 million, not 200 million, 2,000 million. If they lose a million a day they can last 2000 days, circa, 6 years.
By then, it will be 'last man standing' and after 6 years, it hardly seems likely that RYR will be the first to fold.
Airlines go tits up after such losses after just a few months. See recent press re: airlines closures.

And if 600 pilots hit the streets, do you really think that they would not be happy to work for any airline on the B scale, or even C scale?

[grob.1]

I can't help but notice that the moderators on PPRuNe tend to keep deleting the pro-Ryanair posts but are happy to leave up the lies and bull that most people put up here without a trace of proof.
It is the internet equivalent off a british tabloid and this will be my last visit to it! :ugh: Ryanair from strength to strength!!!

But I guess this post will end up in the bin too!

P.s The posts that I am talking about are the ones that I have tryed to post. But they never seem to make it.
And a big thanks for the CAPS button.
Your a top man and your doing a great job.
Well done.

[Duck Rogers]

Grob.

You can't possibly have seen all the posts that get deleted so how would you know what they say?

Yours can stay. I've even smartened it up for you, no thanks necessary.


Duck

[pilotbear]

you are in fine form today D:ok:

[MPH]

whatsthatbuttondo:
well if those guys work so hard for so little with such rubbish Ts and Cs lets try it on our own workforce.´´

Hmmm......Do you know who much a FR Capt. makes with at average of 85 to 95 hrs flying p.m. It´s not tuppence... I can guarantee you that...hard work yes!!!
The difference is that with a union behind you you can bargain contracts..´FR cannot. That´s hardly the issue on this topic. Let´s focus on what the economics in our present day have, and how they have a direct influence on the airlines. And, why some will have it harder than others...the layoff´s are inevitable!:oh:

[MPH]

ASFKAP:


Agreed but...their will still be layoffs in the industry?:sad:

[Desk-pilot]

Well, this is an interesting set of discussions but the truth is that Ryanair remains the only major UK airline with an unhedged fuel position this year that will cost them very dear - perhaps a further £500-£800m this year.

They have committed to fleet expansion at the rate of 20 per year (see http://www.ryanair.com/site/about/invest/docs/FleetDeliverySchedule.pdf and right now they can't even fill the planes they have.

They're grounding 20 aircraft already when last year they grounded 7.

Their market whether middle income second home owners or chavs are discretionary spenders who by Ryanair's own admission have chosen their ticket purely on price not quality of service. Thus by definition I would argue that they have the most elastic demand in the industry i.e. if their price rises even slightly then demand plummets.

Truth is whichever way you cut it O'Leary has a pretty serious set of problems compared to Easy/BA/Flybe who have hedged fuel position and less price sensitive customers.

We've always known that ethically the company stinks, it's just that now the business model does too. Not sure they'll be first to the wall but I think they'll be out of business long before Easy, Flybe and BA and O'Leary can go back to growing potatoes.

Desk-pilot

[LCYslicker]

Oh, perleese... The last thing I want to do is be a member of Leo's fan-club, but someone has to keep bringing this thread back to reality. RY has one of the stronger balance sheets in the industry, the very lowest unit costs in the EU, the very lowest B738 prices from Boeing in the world, and, if people are buying the product on low-price alone, a large segment of society just about to trade down to the cheapest product, just like in the high street today (see the good performance of the LIDLs of this world). On hedging, EZ's runs out at the end of Sept, BA has some, but its price is sharply higher than the average price its just been paying, and if you think that Flybe as an indebted independent is going to outlast RY in this recession then I give up. RY grounded aircraft last winter because it is an aggressive management that cares only about profit - it's grounding more this winter again to keep winter losses on sun routes under control (and to tell the BAA to cut STN winter charges). And guess what? Now EZ and BA are about to cut winter capacity to keep winter losses on sun routes under control..... What should Jet2, bmibaby, sterling, air berlin etc be doing now? The same. I'm afraid there's very tough times coming, but one would be wrong to hope that RY is early in the list of industry exits.

[Rednex]

Ryanair terrible T&Cs. I am bit confused. Name me an airline similar that are on better deals? Jet 2 (ya right!) Excel Airways? BMI Baby? hell even mainline? Easyjet?? Flybe (this is getting funny) Thomas Cook? TUI? (I forgot we have a bunch of them coming across already..) First Choice?? Even BA, how long in the right till you get a sniff of the left??
Ya great you get a small pension and get your crew meals, yippie! And spend maybe 10-15 years in righthand seat???
Really funny that we have lost crews in the past to 'major' airlines such as that other irish regional airline aer lingus, Emirates, Dragon Air, Cathy Pacific, First Choice, Jet2 etc.. funny that after a year or two they are banging on the doors to try and get back into Ryanair. At least the company have wised up and told them where to go.
Nothing is perfect but pointing the finger and claiming that Ryanair are terrible is a bit over the top. I think you'll find alot of happy pilots here.

[BEagle]

BBC Business have just announced (0651 BST) "A very poor set of results coming through from Ryanair today".....:hmm:

Net income excluding writedowns fell to €21M in the 3 months to 30 June from €138.9M a year earlier, a fall of 85%.

Analysts had predicted profit of €50.9M.

O'Leary predicts anything from break-even to €60M loss over the year.

[spider_man]

They forecast at best zero profit but upto 60M euro losses over the next twelve months. No different to other airline market forecasts perhaps.

[peter we]

They are now hedged at $124 and $129, which indicates they aren't expecting prices to go lower. And losses probably won't get too bad, break even is a pretty good outcome. If they could get the 15% efficiency improvements that Rolls Royce are talking about, they would be immediately profitable again.

Ryanair shares plunge on warning over fares, fuel prices - MarketWatch (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/ryanair-shares-plunge-warning-over/story.aspx?guid=%7BAB6CDA7C-FA79-433B-B8A4-54287BE0880A%7D&dist=msr_3)


said it lost 90.5 million euros ($142 million) during the June 30 ending quarter after taking accelerated depreciation of 17.9 million euros on 15 aircrafts to be disposed next year. It also took a 93.6 million euro write-down on its holdings of Aer Lingus (UK:AERL: news, chart, profile) , its rival Irish carrier that it unsuccessfully tried to take over in 2007.
Excluding those costs, quarterly performance still looked dour: its profit fell 85% to 21 million euros from 139 million euros. Analysts polled by FactSet Research had anticipated a profit of 75.4 million euros.

[befree]

The airline lost 90 million euros if you include the fall in the value of the Aer Lingus shares and drop in the value of the planes to be sold next year.

Better planes in the future will make the value of the current 737-800 drop. Ryanair currently have the best kit but others can leap frog them after the downturn. Its a bit like the perfect storm for Ryanair. In this Quarter they made just 99,000 euros profit on selling 4 planes. Last year they made 12,153,000 euros profit by selling 6 planes. A big down turn in the industry means they will have to writedown the value of all their planes.

[andreblor]

From MOLly's press release ref numbers:"Ryanair’s traffic will still grow by approx. 9% this winter as we switch route and capacity growth to lower cost airports and bases. Accordingly, passenger volumes for the year will grow by 14% to 58mRyanair’s better than anticipated savings which will flow from capacity and cost reductions already achieved will partly offset these lower yields. On the basis of our existing fuel hedges, Q4 oil prices at approx. $130 per barrel, and average fares falling by 5% for the full year, we expect to record a full year result of between breakeven and a loss of €60m. The capacity reductions which will ensue from this winter’s wave of airline bankruptcies and consolidations will create more opportunities for Ryanair to grow. When oil prices fall significantly (as we believe they will over the medium term) then our earnings should rebound strongly. We have one of the strongest Balance Sheets in the industry and the business continues to be strongly cash generative with over €2.2bn in cash. With the lowest fares and lowest cost base in the industry Ryanair is the best positioned airline In Europe to take advantage of the opportunities that these very difficult trading conditions will create."So, Pax No.s to grow, Fares to fall - Ryanair policyMOL is comfortable with this, and he sees growth as the main target.

[Facelookbovvered]

Unfortunately that all MOL knows how to do, which is fine, but only one of the two above is in his power, ie to reduce fares, if the pax don't come through then he's well, buggered.

In a slowing economy with net mirgration now negative and thousands of Ex pat Eastern Europeans and their families heading back east because of the collapse of the building industry + many low income familes making the choice to stay at home, the strength of the Euro all add to MOL worries.

Of course much of this applies to Easy, Baby, Jet2 and others, but Ryan is much more exposed because of its pax mix, last but not least many will travel with Ryan because its fares have been so low it would be rude not to go Bratislvkawichpozntolonhannlimogecarcason and other impossible to spell places, remove that low cost factor and they wont go, That is not the same for Easy, baby, Jet2

How long before the money men call for a change at the top, it will only take Easy to start showing + numbers before some see MOL as old hat as we all see GB and he went from positive to negative in 3 months.

These are a dreadful set of numbers from Ryanair, this is a public company using share holders funds not MOL train set, unhedged? buying a stake in Aerlingus, relying on buying cheap boeings and selling at a profit, the wheels are coming off, a perfect storm indeed.

[IOMspotter]

MOL F***ed up large. Almost no fuel hedging in place lower down and suddeny hedging at $120 -$130. Mad. Be nice if he stoped calling everyone else ar*eholes and admitted he'd made a most enormous f** up with no hedging for this year.

[CaptKremin]

Wikipedia says Ryanair have 138 orders and 170 options as of May 2008.

My research shows the costs of a brand spanking new 737-800 is around 80Million USD.

Multiply 80 Mil by 138 and you get, what? Something like 1.1 Billion USD?

If O'Leary must take delivery of these aircraft, and if he can't sell them on because of market conditions, where does that leave his Cash Pot?

[JennyB]

About 1.1 Billion USD??

Didn't need Carol Vorderman for that one!

[Bearcat]

ehhh Leo is your CEO coming unstuck? Disastrous fuel hedgeing arrogance. Even if your crews work for free your still in the muck? Lets hear it from the ducks mouth.......

Bear

[potkettleblack]

Capt,

I suspect you took the upper end of the following price list to do your maths. Problem with that is that MOL signed his deal after 9/11 when Boeing was facing closing its doors. It is top secret what he paid but he has been quoted numerous times as saying that he "r*ped" Boeing on price.

If he decided to sell on all of his firm orders that will further deflate the price as supply would outstrip demand. Also FR orders reasonably basic models of the 737. There is no ACARS, HF, seatbacks for pax amongst other things. To have these retrofitted will cost an operator dearly as they have to be certified. This reduces the price further and limits the availability of interested parties.

Incidentally I once heard a rumour that Boeing were willing to match any price that MOL flicked on his a/c for to ensure that he didn't set up a 2nd hand market and undercut them. They were apparently selling full spec'd models for the same price as his cut down versions.

Boeing: Commercial Airplanes -- Jet Prices Home (http://www.boeing.com/commercial/prices/)

[peter we]

>Key expenditures included 937.1 million euros ($1.46 billion) to buy new Boeing aircraft,

That was last year. So if you know the delivery numbers, I guess you could work out the price of each.

[ZeBedie]

...Boeing were willing to match any price that MOL flicked on his a/c...

Most rape victims are keen on the idea of revenge:ok:

[kuningan]

MOL:The capacity reductions which will ensue from this winter’s wave of airline bankruptcies and consolidations will create more opportunities for Ryanair to grow

Physician - heal thyself!

[Leo Hairy-Camel]

Leo is your CEO coming unstuck
Bullshyte. With net margins of 3% and two and a half billion €uro in the bank, we'll survive the next bloody ice age. The sound you're about to hear is the thud of others falling, not us. We're still in profit (http://www.ryanair.com/site/about/invest/docs/2009/q1_2009_doc.pdf). How many others can claim that in the present market?

[Bearcat]

glad your monitoring Leo....i'm banking on you guys coming back as I'm hurtin like a wounded bull re your share price.

[CaptKremin]

Is that 2.5 Billion before or after paying for the unsellable aircraft about to be delivered Leo?

What will you do with them? Set them alight for the insurance money perhaps?

PS With a 'Net' margin of 3%, why are you forecasting a loss of 60 million?

[Redline]

RYR will survive I suspect which is good news if you're employed by them.

However I'm absolutely delighted to see the share price closed down a whopping 22%....

So all the filthy swine that propagate the management will be lying awake tonight wondering was it worth selling their soul to that t*rd MOL, and blading their fellow man at every opportunity. What's Bellew's share options worth now.... ?? Nowt

[potkettleblack]

Ah but old MOL was no fool. Every month he was offloading shares left right and centre. Sure he probably still has a stack of unexercised options that are below their strike value but he has already cashed in hundreds of millions when the going was good. Rest easy he won't be having to worry about a bedsit or sleeping in his car. If things go sour he can always fall back on his race horses for pleasure. Nice:ok:

[MPH]

I wonder what´s best....working for an airline who´s shares went down by 22% and still made a profit...or..working for an airline that´s bankrupt or losing money etc: ie AZ, BA, NW, US, etc etc?:rolleyes:

[virginpilot1087]

I am an F/O with Ryanair on a Brookfield contract, heres what I think.

Flying as a job is a gamble on the bottom few rungs of the ladder
I am flying 4 or 5 days in my rosta at the moment, great job good pay and really happy at FR

while they keep rostering me ill keep flying, if the rosta runs out then ill have to find another job and live of my savings for a bit and do some work where I can get it.

fingers crossed that does not happen, but life is full of supprises and you got to take chances where you can, playing it safe does not always get you where you want to be in life,,, so stop worrying so much and enjoy where you are. sitting with a calculator working out margins is best left to the guys who get paid to do that, if you fancy a job elsewhere and can get it then just go for it, if not then bank cash for a rainy day and enjoy the skys.

[PC767]

MPH, I don't know about the other companies but BA are not bankrupt.

[ShortfinalFred]

MoL and his alias Leo are the people who have singlehandedly debased airline professionalism throughout Europe. May they get what they deserve. In MoL's case, as he is rich beyond the dreams of Creusus already, that may not amount to much more than having to go back to the farm for real on his estate. For all of his employees, I have nothing but sympathy. Perhaps the debasement will stop here, but I doubt it. Leo, if you are anything other than MoL's alter ego, you should be truly ashamed of yourself.

[Desk-pilot]

In response to the assertion that other airlines are facing problems can I just say that Flybe have just posted record profits and are making money due to the high fuel efficiency of the Dash 8 - indeed according to the MD we're still in profit if the fuel price hits $170 a barrel. It ain't sexy or glamorous compared to a 737-800 but my goodness it's the right aeroplane at the right time.
I also gather BA have just posted record profits in excess of £800m

Desk-pilot

[JennyB]

"I also gather BA have just posted record profits in excess of £800m"

Think that was the figure for the last nine months of 2007, their first quarter 2008 figures are released on Friday.

I gather from some of the comments on here that if BA's profits are down then their business model must be flawed also?

[fireflybob]

I am an F/O with Ryanair on a Brookfield contract, heres what I think.

Flying as a job is a gamble on the bottom few rungs of the ladder
I am flying 4 or 5 days in my rosta at the moment, great job good pay and really happy at FR

while they keep rostering me ill keep flying, if the rosta runs out then ill have to find another job and live of my savings for a bit and do some work where I can get it.

fingers crossed that does not happen, but life is full of supprises and you got to take chances where you can, playing it safe does not always get you where you want to be in life,,, so stop worrying so much and enjoy where you are. sitting with a calculator working out margins is best left to the guys who get paid to do that, if you fancy a job elsewhere and can get it then just go for it, if not then bank cash for a rainy day and enjoy the skys.


I vote this as one of the best postings on this thread if not the whole of Pprune!!

"Security is mostly a superstition. It does not exist in nature, nor do the children of men as a whole experience it. . .Avoiding danger is no safer in the long run than outright exposure. . . Life is either a daring adventure or nothing."

- Helen Keller, deafblind American author, activist and lecturer

[LCYslicker]

Opinion of today's Financial Times (and they know a thing or two about finance): "Mr. O'Leary has a strong balance sheet on his side [and] is still the most likely candidate to be the last man flying when the crisis is over". So let's not get too excited about RY's imminent demise.

[whatdoesthisbuttondo]

Too right. If he can get all you pilots to work max hours for peanuts and no pension he can do anything.

[F14]

I just love all the bile on this thread!!! The UK is a sinking ship, probably the best thing FR did after 9/11 was to diversify into the European mainland. Many of the countries which now have a large FR presence were the domain of the Hire Fares Carriers. The people love cheap fares Rya its a fact.

Will be interesting to see how this thread will be viewed in 2009.

Oh and will BA pilots now have to learn Spanish to keep their jobs?

[stansdead]

FR's good week continues.

Share price down 20% on the sh1tty figures and now their booking engine on the website is slow all day.

A good way to make your punters and investors happy no?:ugh:

[Seat62K]

F14, you claim that the UK is a "sinking ship" and your location is Italy?

[jupilair]

Strange that people here are worry about the future of Fr, still have a lot to propose as a low cost operator and don't worry when it will be the last to be on the loco market it will be time to think to pass to high fares.
If you want to discuss something which can affect us as pilots, why not speak about the bankruptcy of Air Berlin foreseen in October and all those well trained pilots ready to take job in England with lower t&C's
Have a good evening.

[FRying]

Lower T&Cs at Ryanair than at Air Berlin ? I think not ! On par, at worst...

[Day_Dreamer]

I have always posted on the positive side as far as Ryanair is concerned, and will not change my views.
Having just come back from my first trips with Ryanair as a passenger, I must say I expected nothing, especially after reading the Pprune posts, but got better service and a cleaner aircraft than on some legacy carriers, all for the princely sum of "Nothing" just taxes in either direction.
The food and drinks onboard were no higher priced than in London, the crew were polite and still cheerful on their 3rd / 4th sector of the day.
Booking charges were displayed on their web pages, and the options to check in online or at the airport (added cost) were clearly shown.

Industry T & C's have not been erroded solely because of Ryanair or any low cost operator, but by the Beancounters who rule the accounts departments of ALL carriers.
They see a way to cut costs and benefits they will do, then tell their employees that its because of competition from the low costs, and expect you to swallow that story again and again.

Having been in this industry in the Glory days when men were men etc etc, I can speak from experience.
Its not the low costs in the UK who have dragged down terms and conditions its the accountants and HR office weenies who want to save a penny or two at your expense.

Ryanair may not make a profit next year, but they will still be there in the years to come while other carriers have gone to the wall.
Why, the answer is simple they made the profits in the past and realised the good times could not last for ever, so their fighting fund is available to weather the stormy skies which will be with us for the next 12 months.

My heart felt sorrow will be with the newly qualified boys and girls who will not get a job because there will be too few slots available after their training.
Also there will be many out there facing an uncertain winter as the charter carriers cut back, and there will be the demise of carriers in Europe which will flood the market with qualified pilots.
To get a job will require the right type rating, not just jet experience, for those who recruit will do so on the lowest training cost to the operator, meaning if you fly our type and are current we will take the best on offer.

SSTR's will not die and in recession could well mean that its the only game in town.

I have been in this industry 36 years and have seen and been part of this cyclical merry go round, all I can say is hang in there, and good luck.

Finally I just heard that there is a shortage of Captains in Ryanair and that they may be looking at the USA to fill some of these slots quickly.
I hope there will be no exemptions to the EU rules on eligibility.
European Pilots First and Foremost.

[Wing Commander Fowler]

Thankyou DayDreamer for that well balanced and thoughtful post. :ok:

[Magh3]

day dreamer for president ! What a gentlemen, I knew they were still out there

[JennyB]

British Airways profits plunge 88pc as fuel costs soar - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/08/01/bcnba101.xml)

So is it the lo-cost model and non fuel hedging which is bad or the full service, fuel hedged that is??

[rothin]

"I also gather BA have just posted record profits in excess of £800m"

"Think that was the figure for the last nine months of 2007, their first quarter 2008 figures are released on Friday.

I gather from some of the comments on here that if BA's profits are down then their business model must be flawed also?"
..and so it came to pass,
British Airways profits plunge 88pc as fuel costs soar - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/08/01/bcnba101.xml)
everyone is suffering.


This thread IS pointless.

[dicksorchard]

From Personal opinion i would have to say my BA experiences were and have been truthfully very bad !

I put it down to Bad management !

Not as a consequence of the crew's involved i might add !

Who ( pilots to stewards/stewardess's ) always gave economy passengers like myself 1st class service .

Having chosen BA initially based on reputation within the industry , word of mouth , service etc maybe i expected rather too much for my hard earned cash .

I have endured everything from simple baggage loss & delays , to grounded aircraft ( serious tech problems ) , cancelled flights and thuggery onboard
( 1st class yobs ) .

However my experience of low cost carriers has been nothing but exemplary. In particular the so called Dreaded Ryan Air .

Flights always on time , Fares fantastically low compared to BA , excellent service , cancellations only due to bad weather or strikes and suprisingly no thuggery on board ...the odd drunken rendition of ten green bottles but no out and out violence .

So why do i choose to fly Low Cost Airlines ?

Its not just about personal finance its often personal choice .

Whether the snobs within the industry like it or not The easyjets & Ryanairs of this world changed peoples lives .

I have travelled on well over 100 low cost flights in the last 5 years and the combined price of all said flights is probably less than a one way business class ticket with BA to New York !

My life has changed dramatically ...i have gone from being able to fly 2/3 times a year if lucky to being able to travel 2o + times a year .

At times on landing in places new i feel like i have won the lottery !

and before the snobs but in i ain't some nouveau rich chav savin his giro's to go ciggy smuggling either !!


Initially i decided to put my faith in good olde BA but after bad experience after bad experience i defected to Easyjet and Ryanair and so far never had any problems .

I feel so sorry for all those amazing people working for British Airways because those idiots in management are ruining your once proud reputation.

BA used to be the nations favourite carrier not anymore and its not due to the employees its the apalling management .

Terminal 5 Fiasco enough said !

[Dated1]

Virginpilot1087.
What a refreshing post. Good luck to you young man. Always keep your good spirit. It will carry you far.

Daydreamer.
Excellent post.

[boing73guy]

I don't know why they would be letting people go when they just offered me an interview for the captain seat.