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View Full Version : Oil price sudden drop to $90.38/barrel


helimutt
11th Jun 2008, 16:01
Thought this was great news :-


http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7068642.stm

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till I saw the date!:{

Peter Fanelli
11th Jun 2008, 16:02
you bastard

Ozzy
11th Jun 2008, 16:04
What he said....:*

Ozzy

helimutt
11th Jun 2008, 16:13
well why don't they get rid of old web pages like that??? :E:E

airship
11th Jun 2008, 16:18
(in a Crocodile Dundee accent)

Iraq Halts Oil Exports (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/532744.stm)...

"We're doomed!" as private Frazer was wont to utter on numerous occasions...

G-CPTN
11th Jun 2008, 16:57
Financial pundit on the Beeb this am claiming that the $250 dollar barrel was inevitable . . . :ugh:

airship
11th Jun 2008, 17:05
Shirley, you can't be serious?!

PS. I promise I won't call you Shirley again G-CPTN...

G-CPTN
11th Jun 2008, 17:10
Gazprom, Russia’s gas monopoly, on Tuesday predicted oil prices would reach $250 a barrel in 2009.

http://engforum.pravda.ru/showthread.php?t=217633
“Today we are witnessing a very great change for hydrocarbons. The level is very high and we think it [the price of oil] will reach $250 a barrel.” A company spokesman specified that Gazprom believed that level would be hit in 2009.
That is substantially higher than forecasts by analysts, who see oil prices in 2009 ranging between $100 and $200.


In order to analyze the situation further, we need to look at historical facts too. In the early 1980s, oil demand collapsed only after nominal oil prices rose by a factor of 10 between 1970 to 1973 and 1980 to 1983, from about $3.50 a barrel to $35. Based on the empirical example of factor of 10, Sieminski deduces that since oil averaged about $25 a barrel from 2000 to 2003, prices would have to increase to $250 a barrel in 2010 to 2013 to have the same effect on oil users this time around.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/jun/11/saudiarabia.russia?gusrc=rss&feed=networkfront

Taildragger67
11th Jun 2008, 17:18
That Gazprom bloke would appear to be talking his book.

Then again, it could be a case of "I think oil will hit $250 by the end of 2009. And I own the biggest oil fields in the world... ".

I mean, if he'd have wanted to, he could've said "I think oil will hit $50 by the end of 2009. And I own the biggest oil fields in the world so I can just pull some more out of the ground to make that happen."

But he didn't... :eek:

G-CPTN
11th Jun 2008, 17:29
Analysts at Morgan Stanley said last week they expect to see a short-term spike in oil prices, with crude-oil shipping patterns suggesting that prices for West Texas Intermediate will reach $150 a barrel by July 4.
"Too many people are intrigued by the forecast of $150 oil" from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, among others, said Perry. "With this forecast, I suspect the mindset of traders is to ride the price up to that level."
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/crude-futures-fall-much-2/story.aspx?guid=%7BE5416873%2D799D%2D457C%2D8CB7%2D4F91F76DD FF0%7D&dist=msr_9
In its weekly inventory report, the US Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration said crude oil inventories rose by 3.8 million barrels, more than double the increase that analysts surveyed by energy research firm Platts had expected.
Meanwhile, inventories of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, rose by 1.1 million barrels, more than seven times the expected increase.
Some analysts now believe record gas prices are depressing demand for gasoline. “The demand just isn’t there, and there’s plenty of supply,” admits Phil Flynn of Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago.
On the other hand, despite the official OPEC insistence on not raising the output any further, most Gulf Arab states have been producing at higher levels recently. As per the Joint Oil Data Initiative (JODI), compiled by the Riyadh based International Energy Forum, Saudi Arabia lifted its rude oil supply in January and February to one of its highest levels in many years, while the UAE, Kuwait and Iran also pumped at near capacity. Qatar, a relatively smaller oil producer but a major gas power, also boosted its crude output to record levels in February.
Saudi Arabia’s output climbed to 9.216 million barrels per day (bpd) in February and an average of 9.205 million bpd in January and December. The February level was the Kingdom’s highest production in more than two years and one of the highest in a decade. And despite this high output over the last few months, Saudi Arabia maintained a spare capacity of 1-1.5 million bpd - as per its commitment as a responsible oil producer. Indeed being at the top position also brings in a number of responsibilities too. And Saudi Arabia seems fully aware of it.
Although March figures were not available yet, independent estimates showed Saudi and the Gulf output remaining almost at the February levels, if not higher.
The UAE also pumped 2.716 million bpd in February, up from around 2.700 million bpd in January. The output is close to the country’s sustainable output capacity and is the highest since the Emirates began commercial crude exports in the early 1960s.
Kuwait said it boosted its production, including output from the Neutral Zone, which it shares with Saudi Arabia, by nearly 200,000 bpd to a record high of 2.797 million bpd in February. Iran also pumped at maximum capacity of around 4.120 million bpd while Qatar raised production to its highest ever level of 862,000 bpd in February.
And the above figures once again brings under focus that the real issue afflicting the crude markets is not the output factor, as claimed by some in the industrialized world. Output may be one of the many important factors but indeed not the main factor. Other factors, much beyond the control of the OPEC seem to be equally responsible for the woes of the market, if not more, one has to concede.

airship
11th Jun 2008, 17:40
Do the KGB still have the cellars at the old Lubiyanka (http://www.photoconnect.net/imgEuropeRussia1/MosN27.php) or have they all been reconverted into mere sweatshops producing KGB clothing (http://www.lefthandgang.co.uk/).... :ok:

(Please address all serious enquiries to King Vladimir Putin the First c/o the President's office or c/o the Prime Minister's office - I believe they're all the same.) ;)

v6g
11th Jun 2008, 18:01
I just added this next door...
Whilst the press has been engaging in endless discussion over who to blame for the current oil crisis, whether it's those nasty Arabs, the greedy politicians, the big bad oil companies or those evil speculators, one thing happened today that got surprisingly little attention - BP published their annual "Statistical Review of World Energy 2008 (http://www.bp.com/productlanding.do?categoryId=6929&contentId=7044622)". It's a rather dry document with very few words but lots of numbers. Published every year it's the closest thing the world has to an authoritative assessment of the state of the world energy market.

Buried in the numbers in the spreadsheet (http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2008/STAGING/local_assets/downloads/spreadsheets/statistical_review_full_report_workbook_2008.xls)reveals that last year saw a decline of 0.2% in global oil production. Even juicy OPEC saw a decline of 1.2%. The only region to increase production was Russia (3.9%) but they've since admitted that they've hit their peak (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7348463.stm). Looking back at past years data (the document goes back to 1965) shows that never before has every region of the world showed either declines or negligibly-tiny growth.

Still, one point of data doth not a trend make, but there's no mistaking that 2006 was a peak in global oil production. Of course, only time will tell if this was "a peak" or "the peak" and besides, global production also showed declines in 2002, 2001, 1999, 1991, 1985, 1983, 1982, 1981, 1980 & 1975 - indeed some much larger than 2007's.

Comparing the global consumption vs production figures against the inflation-adjusted price reveals a more worrying trend: unlike during previous oil crises, consumption today is steadily greater than production and the divergence is increasing. This was not the case in previous crises when production rapidly increased to above consumption whereas today, production is flat (or slightly decreasing).

Oh well, on the upside, yesterday I passed my motorcycle knowledge test!

Loose rivets
11th Jun 2008, 21:41
loyalty to customers of many years?.......nah, just :mad: em. they should have listened to me in 1973 now it's too late.


when you think about it, it's quite a cunning plan. i have a horrible feeling that we've just been had on a world-class scam.

airship
11th Jun 2008, 21:50
i have a horrible feeling that we've just been had on a world-class scam. And don't forget that this particular scam began with GWB who became President merely because his father once was, following on with a worrying tradition commencing with the Kennedys I'm told...?! :confused:

Aw heck, I just got serious in a thread that wan't supposed to be. Sorry. :sad:

brickhistory
11th Jun 2008, 22:17
And don't forget that this particular scam began with GWB who became President merely because his father once was, following on with a worrying tradition commencing with the Kennedys I'm told...?!


Wow. Just when I thought you couldn't get more UFB, you manage it.


Aw heck, I just got serious in a thread that wan't supposed to be. Sorry.

Don't apologize. I really don't think anyone takes you seriously.

PaperTiger
11th Jun 2008, 22:50
"With this forecast, I suspect the mindset of traders is to ride the price up to that level."No s**t ? They should all be tarred and feathered. Oh b*****, can't afford to do that either.

airship
11th Jun 2008, 23:03
Don't apologize. I really don't think anyone takes you seriously. Don't attack the man personally, attack his argument! You do have one (serious riposte), don't you...?! Oooops, save it for another thread brick, I just remembered this was supposed to be a frivilous one... :rolleyes:

PS. The world always hates a sore loser...

brickhistory
12th Jun 2008, 00:48
Don't attack the man personally, attack his argument!

You are correct, I shouldn't have done that. I apologize.

I should have ignored it completely.


PS. The world always hates a sore loser...

Let me check,...yep, I see you're based in France.

Got it.

CityofFlight
12th Jun 2008, 01:50
Airship is just the Anne Coulter of FR. Spews, but no one listens or cleans it up.

IB4138
12th Jun 2008, 16:28
A thought for you UK dwellers:

A lot of folks can't understand how we came to have an oil shortage here in our country.
~~~
Well, there's a very simple answer.
~~~
Nobody bothered to check the oil.
~~~
We just didn't know we were getting low.
~~~
The reason for that is purely geographical.
~~~
Our OIL is located in........
~~~

The North Sea
~~~
Our
DIPSTICKS
are located in
Westminster !!!

Any Questions ???
NO? I didn't think so!!

acmi48
12th Jun 2008, 20:44
daily reading ..used to be the horses
oil price forecast
per barrel
Price Change Trades Volume
16:38 - $ 136.78 0.04 0.03% 127,650 380,820
Range Open 52 Wk Range 1 Year Forecast
131.35 - 138.30 135.71 88.87 - 138.55 $177.81 / Barrel

yearly change to date max- 50 usd
year forecast hi 177 x little short of 250.. but things change..right

:eek:

IB4138
12th Jun 2008, 20:49
For that piece of information, you will also be amongst the first against the wall acmi48.

No more scaremongering and encouragement of the analysts and speculators are required.

:=