SAA to George

[divinehover]

Why has SAA not taken up the Nationwide slack into George? Has this already been done by the other operators or was there no slack to start with?

[saywhat]

SAA canned the route because it was not profitable.....:confused:

Apparently it is a seasonal route, and the loss on lean times is not covered by the profit in good times. That's what I heard, true - not true - I can't say.

[evanb]

SAX, Link and Kulula have covered Nationwide! The problem for SA on this route was the lack of premium traffic meaning lower yields. Same thing that moved them to move off PLZ-CPT and PLZ-DBN! They have moved the aircraft that were operating these routes onto regional routes which have much higehr yields.

[grjplanes]

Nationwide did have a bigger market share on the JNB-GRJ route than what it's overall market share was domestically, which is said to have been just about 3% in their last 3 months, while on JNB-GRJ it was still probably at around 15%.

Btw, I feel this figures of domestic share is misleading, cause this then counts in other routes where other airlines isn't serving, which accounts for quite a significant amount of pax ie. JNB-BFN, JNB-MQP...it's more important of the share each airline has on each route...

Anyway, not much has been taken up by the other airlines, only that Kulula has ofcourse started using 737-400, but that would have happened anyway. And Airlink decided to continue flying on the route with BAe146, which just gets extended every now and then with 2 or 3 months, ie: for now it's untill September. 1time continued with their full schedule, instead of the planned reduction in service over the winter months.

BUT, ofcourse this is only for now during the lower season, in the past both Kulula and Nationwide would have cancelled flights on short notice due to low loads, mainly during May,June, end July and August...Kulula has not cancelled anything so far and isn't likely to, infact they even had 2 or 3 extra flights at the end of May.
So I think we'll really see some difference from October. Nationwide did offer the only business class on the route, which is still important for a few of the high-rollers living in the Garden Route. Thus I feel that it would be great if BA/Comair can return again, or then if SAA can re-introduce 1 daily flight at least. 1 A319 flight plus 2 SAX CRJ flights, add up to 220 seats, while the usual SAX scheduls has 3 Q400s = 222 seats...
Furthermore I'm taking a wild guess and saying that I believe that 1Time will increase flights again end October to at least 11 from the current 9, and Airlink from 4 to 6 BAe146 flights.

[evanb]

I am sure SA will jump in if it looks good. They do have a great advantage in that they can see exactly what the loads and yields are like since they manage SAX and Link's reservations and revenue on the route!

However, that said a few high rolers is not always enough to lure business class. Rememebr that CE only had a handfull of premium seats (sometimes only 8) on their aircraft while SA have 25 on the 319 and 32 on the 738 ... a lot of seats to fill to get the yields up ... they can do this on regional routes with their eyes closed!

[grjplanes]

At the time when SAA left the route they had 3 daily flights (2 738 + 1 A319), that adds up to 87 premium seats, which had to compete with Nationwide's (which mostly would have been more affordable) as well.

Now there is nothing, so that's why I believe it shouldn't be too difficult to fill A319 once daily.
Both SAA and SAX do JNB-ELS and JNB-WDH multiple flights daily...also SAA and Airlink JNB-HRE and JNB-LUN, while JNB-VFA (which is more a leisure route like GRJ) is also done by both SAA and SAX.
That's why I feel that they should go back to 1 daily SAA flight, and SAX with at least 2 more CRJ flights, still not increasing seats even.

[evanb]

Its about yields!!!!!!! How much can SA charge for a permium seat (and fill it) on JNB-GRJ and how much can they charge (and fill it) on the routes where they have moved the aircraft?

JNB-GRJ, CPT-PLZ and DBN-PLZ were dropped not because the aircraft were not full, one can always fill an aircraft, but because those seats were not filled by high price customers but by low price customers!

As an example, SAA's most profitable route is one they only fly 5 times per week ... JNB-Luanda! Its very profitable because it is one of the highest yielding routes in the world! Unfortunately the yields on JNB-GRJ are low because there is low demand for premium traffic and high compeition (lots of airlines flying the route) for a relatively small route!