Global Recession and Credit Crunch affect in UAE?

[midjet]

Dear all,

How do you think a possible global recession, or the “credit crunch” may affect the lives of pilots working in the UAE? How about partners who maybe working in other sectors like construction, banking etc?

Do you think a move from the UK to the UAE would be a safe-ish move considering one would be at the bottom of a seniority list?

I current fly for a large charter operator in the UK and would not be surprised if this coming winter they turn around and announce a large cut in jobs. If they don't do it this winter then I'm sure they will the following year. When I look at the Chavs we fly on expensive far away destinations, I just cant imagine they are traveling on savings rather then borrowed money. They may still fly on one holiday a year to Greece or Spain but I don't think they will be able to put up 2K for a holiday to the Caribbean or the Indian Ocean. I think the UK aviation industry “maybe” in for a hard time in the next few years and was thinking how you guys and galls felt about job security at the bottom of a seniority list in maybe EY or EK.


Cheers

[sandpit]

Safe as houses (not UK or US houses:})

Just depends whether you can put up with it - but those two will be secure

[thefoxandfirkin]

The global credit crunch will have a knock on affect on all countries but the UAE economic cycle is in a different position to other Euorpean countries so the affect is likely to be delayed (although it will come eventually as liquidity is simply brokered around the world).

For all EK's faults its owners certainly have deep pockets and Flight Deck job security (if you want it) is likely to be much better in EK than in other privatised companies lets face it. One of many factors to consider depending just where you are in your career.

One things worth remembering though, all economic cycles are exactly that - cyclical. Oil prices, for example, will plummet again like they did in the 70s and 80s when people realise that there isn't such a supply/demand inbalance as the media and oil brokers like to make out! All price bubbles burst - eventually.

Blimey - I have been reading some tosh recently haven't I not to mention writing it, lol :8

[halas]

Who says EK is a "Privatized Company"?

halas

[thefoxandfirkin]

Not me... I know its owned by the Dubai Government ... I fly for EK should have just said "in private companies rather than other".... ahh whatever you know what I mean :ok:

Cheers

Foxy Firkin

[kotakota]

I think the general attitude in the Gulf/UAE etc will be 'Recession ? What recession ? '
I have said it before and I will say it again , when the going gets tough , work for a national airline for a few years , stop asking for more money , improve your skills and marketability and wait for the rainy days to pass.......

[midjet]

Thank you all for your input. See you all soon maybe.

[mensaboy]

It is difficult for anyone to predict what a Global recession or Credit crunch will do to Dubai. I think it is safe to say, it will have much less effect here than most other places though. In particular.... the USA is in for years of tough times, both economically and socially.

I think a great many US pilots are seeing the writing on the wall, hence the massive increase in applications from that region.

Things may slow down in the ME, and might even grind to a halt for a while, but I would bet the fortune in my Provident Fund (joke), that any negative affects will be felt less here than in most other parts of the world. The government and Emirates, have deep, deep pockets and in spite of the potential for $200 barrel oil, we continue to make record profits year after year.

EK always takes advantage of natural and man-made crises. I have to hand it to management in those regards. SARS, the war in Beirut, the periodic hardships encountered by other airlines, etc........ EK and Dubai are well positioned geographically and financially to withstand and even profit from the misfortunes of others.
In my opinion, EK is the most secure flying job for new-hires, on the planet.

My one and only fear is that if things deteriorate to such an extent in the Good Ole USA, then there is the ever more likely prospect of future wars or a further increase in chaos in Iraq. I just don't envision America sitting back and doing nothing as they lose their grip on political and economic power around the world..... not to mention the impending social upheaval to come. With Iran positioned so close to Dubai and the fact that they are led by a lunatic, this could potentially result in some bad events happening, particulary if the US decides it needs another war to forstall the inevitable. I hope reason prevails but considering the last 7 years, I have my doubts.

Then again, EK might be able to continue its streak of good fortune. Even if things got ugly in this region I would not be surprised if Dubai and EK managed to take advantage of it somehow.

We justifiably bitch about aspects of this job as well as the peculiarities of Dubai, but when it comes to job security and potential for career advancement, nothing comes close to Emirates in my opinion.

[fractional]

A couple of telling news. However, I believe the inflation figure is higher than the reported in the paper's article. The housing issue down the road is also telling of the misery ahead.
http://www.gulfnews.com/business/Economy/10221267.html
http://www.gulfnews.com/business/Real_Estate_Property/10221203.html

[powerstall]

Guess where most of the oil this world of ours, import from? They're the ones who order everybody: "ey! pay up! pay me $150 per barrel of crude oil or your woeful country who's dependent on my oil stops moving!" - isn't this the current situation, they're the ones dictating how much we pay and how much they export oil.. so i'm very doubtful that the ME would be affected.... just a ball park idea! hehe :E

just my two cents worth.! :hmm:

So how much does EK and EY pay per gallon/Kg of fuel at their hubs? in comparison to the rest of the world? :sad:

[Geebz]

It's all a zero sum game. A shift in wealth.

The wealth is shifting out of the western developed countries and into the M.E. and so-called BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) economies. These sorts of things take years to gain traction, as they finally have now, and hence years to unwind, as will not happen for a long time.

IMO, there is and will continue to be plenty of opportunity in the M.E./ BRIC economies until the western world overhauls it's policies to effectuate proper economic turn-around.

The US Fed MASSIVELY screwed up. They wait too long to cut rates. And when they eventually did they went too far in the cut. Now they will be chasing inflation for years to come. Until they get ahead of inflation, they will be forced to continue to raise rate... for the very reason of reining in inflation. It boils down to choosing between the economy or inflation (strength of the greenback) at this point.

Ironically, suddenly we US pilots are able to look at overseas contracts with great interest as our own currency makes us competitive with pilots of other nationalities again. I've gotta' believe that it's much harder for an established Euro-zone pilot to leave his job for a US dollar denominated contract.

[Trader]

Just a few thoughts:

Firstly, inflation is an economy killer!! If they do not get a handle on it here quickly they will see a rather ravaged economy. In the rest of the world it leads to stikes and labour unrest as the average guy tries to keep up. Here it will mean a large exodus of skilled labour.

Secondly, oil can go to $1000 barrel if it wants. The ME still feels it because they produce NOTHING. Everything is imported. So as oil goes up so does the cost of those imports. They may make more money with the oil increase but that money feeds into relatively few hands. So some get rich while the rest pay more for everything. They can increase salaries but that feed into inflation again.

As for the shift in wealth that might be true to some degree. The reverse is true as well. With high oil prices the restructuring will be tough but over a period of 5 years or so you will see many of the jobs that left North America and Europe return as the costs of shipping and carbon taxes skyrocket.

This type of upheaval will hurt the developing world more than help it. Already they are saying that the gains Africa made over the last 20 years are almost wiped out with the increase in food costs alone. Wait until the rest of the increases feed through the markets.