how many UK airlines will survive?

[galanjal]

title says it all really, how many uk airlines do you think will survive this current oil price/ credit crunch?

[Roster Change]

I have been in the airline business since 1966, and I don't believe there is one single UK airline still operating in it's ORIGINAL form since then, and that includes BA....merger of BOAC and BEA.

Aviation has always, and will be, a very volatile industry to be in. So in answer to your question, get ready for a rocky ride !

[monkeybusiness2]

errrrr what about BMI?

[BlueTui]

I think roster change is correct, in 1966 BMI was called BMA and went through further name changes between BMA BMI, It has also undergone several ownership changes between 1966 and today, and if rumour has it even more.

It has bought BMED to stay competitive in todays market trends of mid haul destinations.

It has changed its common fleet types to streamline its business since 1966.

Deveoloped a low cost business to keep up with market demands

Changed its service delivery on various routes to meet customer demands/profit constraints.

All in all, definately no airline that was operating in 1966 is in the same shape as it was back then.

[monkeybusiness2]

Well I am so so pleased to be working for BA with 18 years seniority with the company in these uncertain times.

[Loxley]

Survivors- BA, Virgin, Flybe, Ryanair (technically Irish I know but to all intents and purposes...), probably EasyJet, BMI in some form or another but maybe bought out (Virgin/BMI anybody?), Monarch, Eastern.

Losers- Globespan, possibly Jet2, Air Southwest.

**This is just my opinion. I'm not trying to upset employees of Globespan, Jet2 etc**

[monkeybusiness2]

Loxley I think your being generous with your list of how many carriers will survive.

[sillymoo]

Monarch have been Monarch since they started services in April 1968. How come everyone always forgets about Monarch? (I know you originally said 1966, but you get my drift....)


:ok:

[Samirauks]

Hi Guys,
i think mainly low cost airlines will survive such as Ryanir and easyjet.

[Loxley]

Loxley I think your being generous with your list of how many carriers will survive.

Monkeybusiness2, why do you think that? I'm not disagreeing with you, but I'm genuinely interested why you think any of those airlines might not survive. Although I work in aviation, I don't work with an airline and from seeing your previous post you have worked for BA for 18years so I'm pretty sure you'll know more about it than me :)


My reasoning was as follows:

BA- It's BA, huge airline, huge market, world famous, just moved into a dedicated Terminal at EGLL.

Virgin- Similar to BA, large well-established airline, world famous with solid customer base.

Flybe- Bit shakier ground but they seem to be picking up the pieces where BA fell down, both domestically and for European routes (in the regions ie Manchester, Birmingham, Edinburgh etc).

Ryanair- Still filling their aircraft, ok the prices will increase as they adjust for fuel prices but they'll still be cheaper than almost anyone else so people will still use them.

Easyjet- As above but not quite as well positioned.

BMI- Cash rich (so I've been told thanks to a weathy owner). However limited scope for expansion now, especially long haul so maybe a merge with Virgin?

Monarch- Well run, cash rich Swiss owners. Solid airline with a good reputation (for passengers anyway).

Eastern- In a niche market, with relatively cheap to run aircraft with a solid, business customer base. Not only that, a lot of their business is generated by the oil industry, which as we all know is one of the still growing industries at this moment!

The above is based on snippets I've picked up here and there. I could be talking out of my ar$e and happy to be told so! :ok::)

[monkeybusiness2]

Hi Loxley,

No of course you're not talking out of your arse! Believe me just because I have flown for 18 years really does not make me any sort of authority!

I just think if things are going to get as bad as the media and press make out, if anyone is going to be badly hit its going to be the low cost carriers that sometimes charge peanuts for fares. How are they going to be able to carry on?

[PC767]

The picture will change but the names may not. In particular I'm interested in Virgin, (Benny Hill pause!).

They are not part of any alliance and it is assumed are stagnating at present as Singapores 49% ownership is on the market as they have decided it is an under-performing investment.

It is a fabulous company, well marketed and presented with a good customer base, particularily in Upper Class. But just like BA when the cash cow premium atlantic traffic drys up, (as it is starting to do at present with the US reccession taking hold) and oil continues its speculative rise upwards where does it go? It cannot be allowed to die so will ownership change?

[B747dreamer]

Hi there

Interesting to read, I can only say about Monarch having worked for them in the distant past they seem to able to survive anything. Whilst I worked for them it was a case of don't mention the M Italian word as that was were the money was coming from to buy new aircraft.

:)

[barnflee]

Those of you speculating about the future of BMI seem to have overlooked the structue of BMI's ownership and the potential for LH to become the major shareholder between December 2008 and June 2009 depending on what SMB decides to do. :D

As for a Virgin (50% owned by Singapore Airlines) merger - dream on

[ladyflyby]

As I am fairly low on the Virgin seniority list I do worry as to what the future holds!! Given all the redundancies in the USA (Continental) and Qantas scaling down some operations, the next 12 months could see a huge shake up within the UK aviation industry.

[r3please]

Singapore have already said they want to offload their 49% stake in Virgin Atlantic. Maybe LH will pick up that 49% ?

[6chimes]

This thread asks more questions than there are answers, such as;

Could the government let all these airlines go to the wall?

What happens to all the a/c on the ground and who buys them which would have a huge impact on airbus and boeing as new a/c are not needed.

How long do we think this down turn will last?

It is not in anybody's interest for lots of airlines to go under, rather there will be mergers and acquisitions whilst the bigger airlines and cash rich ones use this period of uncertainty to gobble up the weaker placed operators. And expect more 'spin' and 'posturing' on the news from the usual characters trying to manipulate the facts to twist the publics perception to a view that serves themselves, i.e, the Irish one! And note how absent from the media the bearded one has been. The fact that the king of self publicity has been so quiet should indicate where VS are.......... and it aint good!

6

[HZ123]

There will be a large number of parked a/c. Many of those to be parked are however 15-20 years old, many were due to be replaced anyway as they cannot be as fuel efficient as companies would wish. United are to lay up up to 130 old aircraft and scrap a large number of routes. As for the LC's I am not sure that they can all survive as surely they have no slack to cut. At BA we expect to see a number of route closures this winter and a reduction in the numbers of daily flights. If a new company can be dragged into 'Oneworld' that airline may be able to take a number of our slots so expect to see a new partner form the Far East or nearer. BA has a several hundred consultants so expect to see them sacked and investment, training and refurbishments cut. Cranebank will be closed within 5 years and its activities decanted to off airport locations going wherever it is cheap.

[r3please]

Singapore Airlines is reviewing the future of its stake in Virgin Atlantic, a move that may presage a sale, The Telegraph reported.

Singapore Airlines has been steadily shedding non-core businesses and is currently examining options for its 49 percent stake in Virgin, Richard Branson’s flagship company. A number of investment banks are believed to have been consulted, though no formal mandate has as yet surfaced.

[banewboi]

cranebank i believe is financially neutral, the sim operation is 24hrs and they rent the sims to other companies, the crew facility is also used by loads of different airlines, qf and fc to name but 2!

[DELTABOY]

According to a friend who is senior cabin crew management at BA Gatwick there are major changes on the cards at both LGW & LHR. Aircraft groundings & lay offs. Virgin have gone through a fair bit of expansion in the last few years adding more routes & increasing frequencies so probably some major reshuffling due there too.
In answer to a response much earlier on 'Monarch Airlines' appears to be the only surviving UK airline to have stayed in its original form through thick & thin. They really are a truely remarkable company & they never cease to amaze me.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the following disappear from our skies:

Astraeus
XL.com
Palmair European
European Air Charter
Air Southwest (possibly merger with Flybe?)

[avrodamo]

The answer to this question is no one knows! There are so many variables, and it's so competative that cards are played very close to one's chest. There are bound to be changes, but ask 100 people, and you will get 100 answers. It's a time of uncertaintity and thats all that can be said.

[HZ123]

Cranebank is neutral however the buildings cost a lot to maintain and are past economic refurbishment. Additionally they pose a problem in risk management by placing the FC, CC and a large proportion of staff training at one location. It is the last chunk of real estate that BA own and will be vacated within 5 years and sold.

[overstress]

It is the last chunk of real estate that BA own and will be vacated within 5 years and sold.

Blimey, didn't know we had a Board Member here on PPRuNe with us... :ok:

[flyingazorian]

"HZ123: United are to lay up to 130 old aircraft and scrap a large number of routes."

hi

130?? Where did you get this figure from?
Official info from United is: 96 B737 + 6 B747 = 100 aircraft
What do you know that we don´t know? Is that 30 Airbus or 30 Boeing Aircraft?

What large number of routes is United scrapping?? Can you be more specific please?

[MancRy]

Why hark on about Monarch remaining unchanged since being foundered? They have gone through a transition from mainly charter to dabbling in Scheduled to becoming mainly scheduled low cost carrier. I would hardly say they have remained unchanged.

[BYALPHAINDIA]

Going to be the 'Hardest' Winter all round I think.

This winter will be a 'Big' wake up call for alot of people, The kind of people who live their life's at a mere 50mph.

Those who drive everywhere, And have a car each & a 4x4 on their driveway.:ugh:

Those who buy sandwiches at M&S at 3.99 a time., And pay for everything on a 'plastic' card.:hmm::ugh:

You know the kind of people I mean I could go on.....

All these luxuries will dissapear.

[K.Whyjelly]

[quote=flyingazorian;4197306]"HZ123: United are to lay up to 130 old aircraft and scrap a large number of routes."

hi

130?? Where did you get this figure from?
Official info from United is: 96 B737 + 6 B747 = 100 aircraft

When I was at school 96+6=102 :bored:

[smith]

It is not in anybody's interest for lots of airlines to go under

Don't be fooled, Michael O'leary will be out with the daggers, Ryanair are cash rich and will survive this no prob. When they come out the other side many airlines and routes will have hit the wall and MOL will be there to sweep up. Ryanair will show reduced profits the next few years but will emerge bigger, fitter and stronger when the upturn starts.

[preduk]

I think most of them will survive... It's not as if this has just sprung upon them, they have known for a long time giving them enough time to plan/develop their new business plan.

The ones affected the most will be the Air Southwest, EasternAirways etc

[AirSurfer]

not forgettig another charter airline i.e Thomson, altho merging with FCA the company has been around for many years and the core of its flights are for its holidays it sells so unless people stop going on their holidays with thomson or first choice then i would say their will always be thomson airways :ok:

[flyingazorian]

When I was at school 96+6=102 :bored:

:}and still is...i meant to type 94+6=100...

thnks :ok: