oil price and employment

[adriandecleir]

Hi,
Im just wondering are any of you(especially the younger engineers) concerned about your careers in the not too distant future because of the oil prices hitting record level highs and looking like climbing further. Ive read a few articles about the future of the airline industry and there seems to be varying predictions, some ok, but some arent great. Some of you might know from older posts of mine Im training in this career at the moment, im just curious of what you might think!!
Thanks

[cessna24]

Hi,
first post for me. Im a line technician and I agree it is worrying. Im 24 and at the moment I believe the bigger airliners are stable. I think i read that some can afford up to $200 dollars a barrel of fuel if it gets to that stage. But as long as the aircraft keep flying, then for us its ok. But if you were to worry about everything then you would never do anything. Aircraft engineering is a good trade to have and learnt. You can apply your skills to many different areas so if the worst comes to worst then at least you have a decent cv! And for everyones sake, lets hope these fuel prices come down cause i enjoy going on cheap flight holidays!!
And good luck with your training

[JSaeroengineer]

I'm also in training to become a licensed engineer, and I think it is pointless worrying about it at this stage. Virgin ran a 747 with one engine on biofuel, which gave them excellent data to work on in terms of eventually running them on "plant" fuel. So eventually most airlines will find ways around the rising prices/fuel shortage.
If and when airlines start running on biofuel, or whatever they decide to run them on, they are still going to need engineers to maintain them.

[WOTME?]

Problem with biofuel is that it uses too much water & is causing the price of food to rocket,as farms go from food to biofuel.
There is no easy way out.Glad I'm close to retirement!

[HZ123]

Guys just carry on as normal in my 40nyears it has always been swings and roundabouts. It is fait to say that things are far worst than ever before driven by the USA recession. Whatever happens there will still be a requirment for LAE's, the trick is to land a job with an established engineering co or an airline.

[N1 Vibes]

i'm not counting my chickens, but the mob i work for got their fingers burnt when they cut-back the workforce during the asian crisis in 97/98. in the last big headache SARS they cut nobody in effect and when the recovery came they bounced back immediately. hoping my rose-tinted specs are still working...

Regards,

N1 Vibes

[TFenton]

Corporate is the way forward.

[asheng]

Hey Guys,

The aerospace industry is cyclic and over the years I've seen ups and downs but engineering will always be required. Also with the lack of engineers about nowadays and the airlines industry being global, work really shouldn't be too much of a problem. Whilst at the moment we're suffering here, in the east its booming.

In '85 we had a dip and all the companies tipped out, then realised that they wanted to fly aircraft and needed to rehire engineers to allow them to maintain there networks. Again The First Gulf War stopped the industry in its tracks but maintainence still had to be done if the airlines we're going to survive. Some didn't, but as one folds another starts and they all require the basics to operate, someone to fly them, someone to fix them. Sept 11th was an eyeopener but again the business has recovered and again we now have the oil price which makes things edgy but again the industry will recover.

It needs the downtimes to allow reality to be seen but people nowadays are so used to the availability of travel, again it will recover. I think when George W gets booted from the Whitehouse and depending on who gets in the oil price will stabilise, hopefully the threat level will subside and the world will be a quiter place which will all benefit the airline business again.

Just got to ride it out I'm afraid, seen it before over the last 25 yrs and will see it agian in the future. As engineers we are a vital part of the business and the number of us with licences is reducing monthly, which all means the job is more scarce and the money will go up.

After the Gulf War, the beancounters took control of the airlines and the first thing that was stopped was training and it has never been started again as it was seen as a cost on the wrong side of the balance sheet and would affect profits. For those of us who had to get our tickets in the meantime, its those very airlines who are now having to pay engineers what they should have been paying years ago. I'm afraid I've no symapthy for them, but guys we will always be needed and its not a bad choice of career really is it?

[Blacksheep]

Nothing new about oil price inflation. In the early 70s it went to $40 a barrel and we survived. $40 may not sound much right now, but to put it in perspective, Mr. Average earned less than £4,000 a year and you could buy a three-bed semi in an outer London suburb for about £14,000. So factoring up, the equivalent today would be something like $500 to $600 a barrel. Remember good old Sheik Yamani - better known as "Shake yer money" - the money grabbing Chairman of OPEC? For a while we had informal petrol rationing and the Government issued rationing books in case it came to that. They also imposed a 50 mph national speed limit to reduce petrol consumption. Yet we and our industry are still here; its just a blip in history now and the current situation will be the same.