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F14
6th Jun 2008, 22:53
Latest price is 140 up 12% in a week(?)

First view is dollar is toast, second today was major threat of attack on Iran and consequences on supplies.

There are 2 views, 1) oil will peak at 150 dollars then back to 50
or 2)it will peak at 300-500 dollars; this would mean the end of the
dollar of course.......

Golf Charlie Charlie
6th Jun 2008, 23:05
Ah, another oil discussion. Situation is not like the 1970s, when there were physical shortages. Today there are no shortages. Rise in price driven mainly by fundamentals, ie. high demand, and only secondarily by speculation. Price likely to fall back at some point, but not by much. Demand will hold sway, I think, despite lower consumption in the west, and supply will remain tight, not due to shortages, but due to past under-investment in pipelines, distribution capacity, old refineries etc. which cannot keep pace with third world growth. It's not just China - a long list of major third world countries is increasing oil consumption rapidly, eg. Saudi Arabia, Iran, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, Turkey, Russia..........

fdgolf
6th Jun 2008, 23:08
Oil was priced against a bar of gold rather than the dollar......

... and how did it all end? :mad:

ukdean
6th Jun 2008, 23:10
evern more reason to keep the wings clean, ATC TAKE NOTE

F14
6th Jun 2008, 23:12
No, its not a run on oil, its a run on the dollar.....

If there is an attack on Iran, there is major suppy problem.

The demand from china arguement doesn't add up, for electric they are coal fired. China hasn't moved over to BMW X5's for primary transport in the last 3 months either?

Sadly I don;t have the answers.

Virginia
6th Jun 2008, 23:31
Basically-there will be no airlines left and a huge nuclear war.

At least we won't have to go to work anymore.

F14
6th Jun 2008, 23:42
Just read on FT, Pakistan has asked Saudi if they can de-fault on their bill for the oil, they also applied to World Bank for 500mil dollars.

Interesting times

Virginia
6th Jun 2008, 23:55
Look what's happening to the US economy...

The higher oil gets the worse it gets. People will not be able to fuel their cars, buy food etc I predict riots and civil war.

At least the environment will benefit, an upside to everything. :ok:

For now, the chavs are too busy watching Big Brother to worry, front page of the Sun and the Mirror (UK trash tabloids) talk about Big Brother and Sharon Osbourne leaving X factor. Ignorance must be bliss!

F14
6th Jun 2008, 23:59
Life goes on of course. But with Virginias comments how can anybody say demand is rising 12% in few weeks. Its nuts, somebody is driving this, I think big bank or hedge fund. Its tulips again:=

Virginia
7th Jun 2008, 00:06
It's a conspiracy!

Blame our great political leaders. :D

Poof in Boots
7th Jun 2008, 00:13
I thought after the invasion of Iraq, the world would be awash with cheap oil. Surely that was the reason Bush exagerrated the threat of Saddam's non existent weapons of mass destruction?

What a terrible waste of life and money.

con-pilot
7th Jun 2008, 00:39
5...4...3...2...1 and soon off to Jet Blast I believe. ;)

WhatsaLizad?
7th Jun 2008, 00:53
"I thought after the invasion of Iraq, the world would be awash with cheap oil. Surely that was the reason Bush exagerrated the threat of Saddam's non existent weapons of mass destruction?

What a terrible waste of life and money. "


I still think today as I did then, that maybe Bush/Cheney knew the WMD was BS, but as oil men, also knew the oil market of today was going to happen due to future supply and demand constraints. The thought of a strong Saddam evaporating the sanctions against him and buying any weapon he wanted with $125+ oil might have been a major motivation. Then again, they might have just had their heads up their ar#$s.

It is something to think about given Cheney's very pragmatic and conservative nature during the Gulf War in 1990 compared to him vigorously supporting the 2003 invasion.

F14
7th Jun 2008, 01:20
Yeah its over.Monday looks bad, very bad. I hear 250 dollars by August 17th now. Will buy some Horses over weekend to make the commute easier:D

F14
7th Jun 2008, 01:32
Actually is strange but I was thinking how economical Airships would be at this time?back in the 20's they did 50kts. Know with 80+ years of technology could we the UK go back and look again.. Oh and the hangers are still there, across the commenwealth.:O

arcniz
7th Jun 2008, 01:33
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/45/Mixed_nuts_spread.jpg/800px-Mixed_nuts_spread.jpg

Seems like this is the Mixed Nuts section. Is anybody posting here even slightly connected with reality? (ConP excepted from all the above, of course)

Wiley
7th Jun 2008, 01:54
I hear 250 dollars by August 17th now.Looks like I got it wrong back on April 5th in the Predictions Thread then, (when some laughed at my prediction). http://www.pprune.org/forums/showpost.php?p=4025956&postcount=13Watching CNBC last night, I got the impression that I was witnessing something very much like someone watching the ticker tape come into his office with the very bad news during the first days of great crash of 1929.

GOLF_BRAVO_ZULU
7th Jun 2008, 02:05
If the "futures" speculators buy ahead (now Property has gone to rats) at silly prices in oil, they'll make bloody sure they recover their outlay. If one's family business is oil, pushing up the price by limited availability is very good for the family wealth. An oil rich country doesn't normally own the oil; it owns the tax from its extraction value.

Mr Bush, remind me, what's the family business again?

MasMamak
7th Jun 2008, 02:23
Are the Bushies making hay when the sun still peeks through in the twilight of his regime? Talk about the evil empire and the great " Satan ". Maybe the Iranian ayatollahs were more perceptive than we suckers!

WhatsaLizad?
7th Jun 2008, 03:29
"Mr Bush, remind me, what's the family business again?"

Politics my friend. Much easier to drill the guy walking down the street than hoping for a strike 5000' underground :E

rebellion
7th Jun 2008, 07:32
Ryanair's Michael O'Leary;

"I hope oil prices stay high over the winter because we will get rid of a lot of crappy competitors," he said.

Why does this guy always land on his feet? :cool:

fourgolds
7th Jun 2008, 08:45
Canada has huge oil supply , I understand it was always too deep therefore too expensive to recover. So if the price is high it may make it worthwhile. Imagine a Western country with oil power.:O

I can just see it now , landcruisers and dish dashes crusing around Calgary.

airfoilmod
7th Jun 2008, 08:54
And I can hardly wait. No longer will I eat my chips, I'm going to start squeezing them for the Oil and selling the dry potatoe part to ethy distillers. Hungry, but wealthier.

Canada has trillions of Barrels, as do we US, Alaska, Gulf, Oil Shale and tarsands in the Midwest. We also have Fresh water, something the Sand Bandits covet.

cwatters
7th Jun 2008, 09:06
Oil-Rich Mid-East May Import Coal

http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapital/2008/05/19/coal-porters-oil-rich-mid-east-may-import-coal/

"...coal is emerging as the best quick fix to avert blackouts as the world’s biggest hydrocarbon exporters struggle to cope with high prices for oil and natural gas, infrastructure weakness and a development boom. Some of the world’s biggest oil exporters may soon find themselves reliant on imported fuel from a leading coal exporter, such as South Africa."

airfoilmod
7th Jun 2008, 09:13
The Mid-East has no energy shortage. What it has is a product that is worth more to export than use at home. Why use oil that commands a price of 150USD per Barrel when you can sell it and Burn coal at an equivalent price of 8USD unit/unit.

This story is for soft heads and the Press.

The West would do well to liquefy Coal, develop Nuke u lurr, and continue to prevent the Sand Bandits from doing same. As an Aside, one wonders what the French are doing stabbing the EU in the back by helping the Mid build Nukes.

ORAC
7th Jun 2008, 09:13
Peak Coal (http://www.energybulletin.net/29919.html)

cwatters
7th Jun 2008, 09:21
Looks like Canadian oil sands are going to be important...

The World Oil Supply Report
2004 - 2050 (3rd edition)

http://www.durangobill.com/RolloverPics/Rollover1.jpg

airfoilmod
7th Jun 2008, 09:22
"Energy Bulletin"? Why a Bulletin? we'll suffer hideous consequences if we don't find out until tomorrow? Find out what, that the more "scarce" hydrocarbons are touted to be, the more there seems to be to mine, drill?

The genealogy of the excitement about petro/coal is an interesting pursuit. Speculators in the Carbon Credit industry?

Good Grief

cwatters
7th Jun 2008, 09:53
“Fierce cost escalation in the oil patch is complicating the industry’s ability to respond to higher prices with new supplies, setting the stage for still-higher prices in months and years to come.” - Wall Street Journal August 2007

...but no doubt someone will say this is just an excuse.

haughtney1
11th Jun 2008, 00:36
How long till this gets buried by the oil companies? (http://www.purdue.edu/uns/x/2008a/080505SwiftAviationFuel.html)

Bill Woodfull
11th Jun 2008, 04:17
Oil consumed daily? 85M barrels a day.

Oil traded by hedgers and speculators on the Futures market? Over 10 times that number daily.

Why? Devalued greenback.

eg... http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/06/10/2269901.htm?section=justin