Years ahead - surplus or shortage of pilots?

[Toujours]

Hi guys, would appreciate answers from Captains and First Officers already in the field.

Looking at the international economy especially with the rising oil prices, of over $135/barrel and rising, and its direct impact on the aviation industry what advice can you give to individuals who would like to be commercial pilots and plan to start flight training shortly?

I know aviation is cyclical and stuff but what do you forecast for the future. The major question is below:

For the present time and the years ahead do you think there will be few pilot jobs due to a surplus of pilots (brought on by failed airlines) OR do you think there will be a shortage of pilots for the present time and the years ahead.

I think the above question will be the question of the day! Thanks and look forward to your replies guys.

[bereboot]

Just look at the oil-prices , environmental / political aspects , and me ( as a 737NG capt. ) think that aviation will become more and more for the elite. The man in the street with his family will soon be no longer capable of flying.
'Low-cost' started to generate extra pax , who doesn't want to see Barcelona for just a nickel ? , but I think reductions in capacity are about to come , and they will be surprisingly big ............................?

[geordiejet]

I imagine it will be similar to it is today: surplus of newly qualified pilots, and a shortage of qualified/experienced pilots.

If there are major layoffs, there will be a bigger surplus on the markets ofcourse, but at least they are qualified. So when recruitment is on the 'up', there will be qualified pilots to fill the roles.

And still, there will be a surplus of newly qualified/inexperienced pilots out there (except maybe for the very rich, who can afford SSTRs/line training etc etc).

[Intruder]

There will likely ALWAYS be jobs available at the bottom of the heap, as experienced pilots "graduate" to better jobs. However, GETTING the required qualifications and experience will cost more and pay less...

[geordiejet]

Well, there are a lot of people on here who would disagree with that. Especially those in the wannabe forums.

[Ali Qadoo]

The most worrying trend is that we're going to end up with a shortage of people with good hands and good airmanship but a surplus of machine minders.

[EGGP]

Think back to the 70's when the first big oil price rises happened. ISTR reports in the years afterwards that pilots quickly lost currency and couldn't afford to remain qualified. Quite a number didn't get back to work as pilots.

On Radio 4 today there was a report concerning "peak oil", experts suggested that we have had the first peak where "sweet" crude oil for Kerosene etc -demand can't be met. They were predicting that by 2011- 2013 we would hits further peaks for heavier fuels and peak oil full stop. The only benefit is that this should give the economic push to find other fuels.

Hydrogen powered aircraft anyone? :bored:

EGGP

[sevenstrokeroll]

be a pilot if you want to be away from your family too much, work Christmas and other holidays. Always be watching out for losing your job, your life, your reputation in the business.

the flight attendants will get uglier, the planes will be less fun to fly ,and if you still want to do it, there will always be more pilots than jobs.

27 years ago I was teaching people to fly. one worked for apple computer and offered me a job there. I didn't take it.

BIGGEST MISTAKE IN MY LIFE!

[Facelookbovvered]

If you really want to do it, go for it, but be realistic about the job.

The good points

The view from the front is the best in the world.
The money/work ratio compared with most normal jobs is positive (LHS)
You'll meet some interesting people
There's no dog **** airside to step in


The bad
Getting in is very expensive £60-£100k
Its takes a lot of time 2-5years
You probably wont work where you (or your family) live
Your job security is lowish
You need a sense of humour to deal with the daily security (remember you earn an hour what they get a day and keep your mouth shut)
You'll be at work when your mates are out (with your wife/girl friend)!!

Advice

Talk to as many current pilots as you can and see how they deal with it.
Make sure you can get a class 1 medical before you spend a penny
Go for some trial lessons on a less than perfect day!!
Use a good training company
If you can fund it do a full course (60k+)
Timing is important, you want to becoming out on an upswing and we have yet to enter the down swing but its coming!!
Avoid the negative vibes on Pprune

Above all keep your focus and network like a prostitute

Live the dream, my only regret is not doing it earlier

Bovvered

[geordiejet]

£60-£100k

But be under no illusion that spending this amount of money guarentees you a job.

Right now it should be all about minimizing your exposure to risk. Unless Mummy and Daddy can bail you out (i.e. remortgaging the house [crazy! - especially with reducing house prices = possible negative equity]), spending £60k and above in one chunk may not be the soundest descision a wannabe could make.

But, I completely agree, it's all about keeping positive (I must try to remeber this before I post on here!).

[Craggenmore]

You'll be at work when your mates are out (with your wife/girl friend)!!
Looks like you chose the wrong mates or woman!

[Toujours]

Bovvered thanks for your detailed answer and advice! You regretted not starting earlier; what age did you start to fly and what age did you get your first airline job?

[flyingelf]

I re-started at 25 performing every year a course..CPL-ATPL-MCC..ecc.. and I got my first aviation job 2 years ago..

It's a good expirience, be positive and never give up...you 'll reach your goal :}

FE

[Viking101]

You will be tested with your patience, luck and persistancy.

I have both been lucky and unlucky.

Yes, allocating will almost be certain. Travelling is fun. The first 3 years. After that, well you might have to start thinking of stop commuting.

There will always be jobs for us, the question is just how many, and how the aviation business will change in the next... say 2 years.

I really think we will see a lot of changes :rolleyes:

For the better or worse :suspect:

[swish266]

Definitely a surplus.
The overall impact of the oil hike on the world economy is:

Inflation

Every single price has gone up. This affects food, utilities, transport. Our jobs depend on the ability of people to travel. Look at the consolidation that has already started in the airline business in India... The growing economies of India and China were upping the demand for pilots till now. Once the growth slows down over there...

American airline industry has barely pulled through since 9/11. Europe's tourist growth has been fed by the strong Euro (but now even the well traveled Europeans will start having second thoughts about visiting this holiday home 2 times a month).

We are looking at a global travel slow-down in the next 12 months as fuel hedging will not cope with prices of more than 120 USD. And this can become a grinding stop in the foreseeable future if the oil goes to 150-200 as quite a few specialists forecast.

IMHO

:(

[speedrestriction]

As a few other posters have stated the key issue as far as recruitment is concerned is the affordability of aviation going forward. Not only will flying become more expensive in the face of long term fuel price increases but also the ability of individuals to afford flights in the face of an increased cost of living (running a car, home heating, electricity, food etc) will diminish. Capacity is already reducing. For those working for airlines with deep pockets things may not be so bad: as weaker airlines collapse, those remaining will have a greater market share in a marketplace with fewer competitors.

As to surplus vs shortage: I suspect within a few years there will be a surplus of experienced flightcrew. By experienced I simply mean holding an ATPL. I also believe there will continue be a surplus of CPL/IR holders in Europe looking for a break into the airline industry.

sr

[Facelookbovvered]

You can either take the view that the industry is on its arse (it isn't) or that there will be a slow down, highly likely.

People will not stop flying anymore than they will stop driving, sure they'll fly a little less, but the med routes are safe, because people are used to going there, have property there or access to property( probably why Ryanair have opened base in ALC & AGP) however the people who will still travel wont put up with Ryanairs crap customer services level and can afford to pick and choose.

What will decline is the travel to places you've never heard of because it is so cheap it would be rude not to!!

If i knew what oil was going to do i wouldn't be doing my day job, but its unlikely to stay above $100 for long and i suspect that a year from now (depending on who gets the white house) it will be nearer $80 which is still too much, flights at £29.99 base price rather than £9.99 or £19.99 are still afordable.

So a slow down yes, but if you start your training in late 2009 or 2010 you should be coming out around the time the people who could/should have retired at 60 are reaching 65 and by then we may be back to a normal business enviorment.

At what point to start worrying? well if FGS go tits up that would be a worrying sign but not terminal, if Jet2 go under then i would delay at least a year ditto the likes of baby, the rest should be ok but smaller

good luck

[The Loan Arranger]

Its a "no brainer" - there will definately be a future pilot surplus. Trouble is waiting around the corner for all of us in the form of a full blown recession - the state of the housing market has always has always been a good indicator as to how things are gooing to look in the aviation industry. and at the moment its not looking good - rising mortgage costs and a stagnant market with people still deluding themselves that their properties are worth what they think they are.

The credit crunch, the high levels of personal debt, future economic uncertainty, inflationary pressures, Energy and oil prices, etc etc are very worrying.

Its true that people will continue to fly as they see it as an accepted method of transport in our modern age - the fact is they will travel much less and this will have an impact within the industry -its just a matter of time before one of the smaller low costs goes under .

Its not all bad news as history will repeat itself when the next boom cycle comes around - we could be in for a long wait though!

[drivez]

Hi i'm a teenage wannabe and i found it quite interesting to read this forum. I like to read through Aviation related things and i was reading the aerospace section in the idependent. The article said that airbus was expecting a need for 22,000 new aircraft over the next 12 years. I was very surprised to hear this as more and more airlines seem to be making the noises of financial difficulties ahead.

What surprised me more was the fact that the 22,000 aircraft was just what they had estimated for commercial passenger aircraft never mind cargo. This estimate seemed to go against everything i had read. What do you guys think about the figures ?

Drivez

[flufdriver]

I believe we're in for a paradigm change in transportation:

In my opinion there will be a significant decline in discretionary travel until a number of issues have been resolved. I believe there is little incentive by governments to exert down ward pressure on the price of Oil, the global environment can only benefit if there is a decline in the use of fossil fuel, many country's infrastructure is overburdened and they would like to get people out of their cars and into the trains and buses.

In aviation we are waiting for a leap forward with a new method of propulsion, we are again looking at the unducted fan as a way to become more fuel efficient but that is still the same technology.

I also believe that it is the intention of the industrialized countries of Europe and North America to lessen their dependence on Oil and the political implications of that. (Osama Bin Laden would not be half as dangerous without money as he is with it!)

I'm thinking of taking up sailing!

fluf

[Flyit Pointit Sortit]

Never believe what the Aircraft Manufacturers say, all they are trying to do is stir up a market for their product and has nothing to do with reality:ok:

[drivez]

Thanks for that. I've been reading these forums and it just made my jaw drop to read something that was so against what all you guys in the know are saying.

I mean 22,000 ? wow that is abit unbeleivable.

[Denti]

Don't forget that there are tons and tons of old aircraft out there and least some, if not most of them, need to be replaced. That accounts for a lot of those aircrafts on order. Although everyone knows that between 20 and 30% of all orders will not be bought in the end.

[SVoa]

I think the most important thing for a pilots first job is flexibility... If your willing to be very flexible and seek jobs anywhere then you will get your first job, and then its alot easier to go from there on. I dont think we are looking at the end of pilot recruitment as many people make it seem, but your chair will always be shaking. Even the strong airlines, with lots of cash are having major difficulties as we speak. It has to do with risk assessment... do you really wanna pay all that money to do an AMAZING job, but be worried of your job status almost all the time?

SVoa

[petermcleland]

The first twelve years of my flying life were as a fighter pilot in the R.A.F. ,followed by twenty two years in civil aviation. I have to say those first twelve years were the best in my life and I'm wondering why more Wannabees don't choose that way into a flying career...You do get trained for free :)

[notice to airmen]

Once about every 10th year pilots are talking of a big shortage. Airlines do not know how they will expand because of lack of pilots. Golden times for pilots. Finally, we think it is payback time,the greedy top management will do anything for us. But every time the economy slows down so there will be a surplus instead. Talk about pilot shortage is only an indicator for recession.

[Slick]

Surplus short term - airlines will go out of business. Airlines will have to learn to make money at 90 - 130 a barrel, they will drive down costs including pilot t&c less people will be able to afford to train and it will be a less attractive job = Long term shortage t&c will go back up.

Sound familiar?

Whatever, things are not looking too good right now and its just possible that airline travel could be knocked back 30 odd years and become rather expensive again which would be a great shame - thats looking rather more likely by the day. My personel opnion is there is much pain to come. Hate to sound negitive - not my style, but the fact is that futures are being traded at considerably more that current prices, and demand is still outstripping supply

Previous post join the service - good advice, great life.

Best Rgds

[Air Rage]

I think Contango is the word for the current oil price - futures versus spot.
It's not looking good is it.
However, completely agree with Peter and Slick; arguably you'll get better training and find out a lot more about corners of the envelope most people only dream (or have nightmares) about!


(Arguably, you might also have to get involved in illegal wars and risk your life killing innocent people - whilst flying obsolete and only tolerably safe airframes.....)

FLY NAVY

[On the beach]

It all boils down to oil really. Oil being a finite resource, it has a finite life. The $64,000 dollar question is when does the price of oil make it uneconomical for airlines to fly. I'm convinced that the end is nigh for oil, but not for 30+ years. Having said that I would suggest you follow what the guys with the oil are doing i.e. The Gulf States. They are best placed to know how much oil they have left and the one thing that I see from all of them is orders for A380's. Forward planning? I don't know the economics of airlines but I would hazard a guess that it will be cheaper to fly one A380 with 500 pax than two smaller a/c with the same number of pax. That, of course leads to half the aircrew, but doesn't spell the imminent end of aviation.

A difficult decision for a wanabee and not one that I would relish. So "Toujours" all I can say is if you have your heart set on being a pilot then go for it but, bear in mind that your choice of a/c and airline may determine how long you can stay in the game.

On the beach

[corsair]

I'm wondering why more Wannabees don't choose that way into a flying career...You do get trained for free Agreed, except for one slight flaw. We can't all get into the military. You don't choose them they choose you. You were very lucky. Most of us don't fit the uniform no matter how much we want to wear it.

As for the pilot shortage/surplus, this is the old perennial question. But I always felt it was meaningless. Even when there is a supposed surplus, pilots find jobs. But conversely during supposed shortages. The airlines rarely fall over themselves with incentives to would be recruits. I've been knocking around this business for many many years and I've always found that would be pilots find work eventually. Sometimes it takes longer, sometimes not. And for experienced pilots, sometimes they have go further for work. Sometimes it lands in their laps.

Wearing yourself out worrying about impending shortages or surpluses is pointless. It's just not that predictable.

[Dysag]

When you have time take a look at this stuff, I think it will explain a lot:

http://www.airbus.com/en/corporate/gmf/

You will also see that past downturns look like just tiny wobbles on the historical traffic growth curve.

Product planning timeframes mean the manufacturers have no choice but to look a long way ahead. The forecasts are not slashed every time there's a recession, however real and painful it may be at the time, because growth resumes in due course.

[saccade]

The question below is part of an interview with Shell CEO Jeroen van der Veer on the Times website. It clearly shows that (at least according to JvdV) we should not expect too much of increased production or alternatives. Instead, we should focus on conservation and efficiency as an answer to the tight supply/demand balance. He basically acknowledged peak oil. This will probably not be an tiny wobble on the aviation growth curve.



Question: For decades, science has clearly understood the inevitability of both “peak oil” and climate change. Nothing has been done and both are now here. It is clear who the winners and losers are. To illustrate, EACH American pays about $1,400 per year as a premium for oil being scarce. The cost of a massive transition from petroleum-based power to electrical power, using solar thermal generation, can be estimated to have been less than $1,000 per year (at a premium of about 5c/kWh). Can you see any redeeming features, except profits, in this situation?

Answer: Jeroen van der Veer:

It is true that “easy oil and gas” - or conventional oil and gas that are relatively easy to extract - will not be able to match the pace with which demand is growing. The main reasons are the maturing of existing fields in many parts of the world, the scale of the investments required to enhance oil recovery from these fields and to bring new projects on stream, and of course the limited access for the international energy industry in some countries.

I have been warning for sometime about the end of the “easy oil” era, and I think the message is slowly beginning to sink in. And so is the logical consequence: we need all the energy we can get.

What is less obvious to many people is that even if we develop and deploy all the energy we can together - including unconventional oil and natural gas, including alternative energy, including nuclear and including more coal - we will still struggle to match demand. Unless we can curb the consumption of energy through radically more efficient technology.


Full interview:
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_resources/article3985479.ece

[BYALPHAINDIA]

I Think there's a continous 'Glut' of Line pilot's worldwide, Irrelevant of their experience.

Listening over the airwaves, I would say a good 65% are foreign pilot's flying uk airliners.

Aside from that, I think the one's to probably be the first to walk the plank, Will be the Flying Schools.

I know one of my local Schools is closing now on a monday, As the demand for training has obviously fallen, Due in part to the credit wave that has come.

At the average price of 105.00 p/h that prices a good 85% of the population out initially.

As the well known phrase says Flying is a rich man's game, And I don't think this will ever change, I hope it will.

Obviously there are exeptions to this, That being if you are very very fortunate to acquire any kind of sponsorship, But that is these days very very few as we all know.

Flying aircraft is not exactly the average job is it.

[Carl Rawson]

IMHO the human race is generally reactive and not proactive. Therefore unless something really goes wrong with the world economy or climate then people will still want what they have now come to accept as the norm and that is cheap weekend flights to BCN, PRG etc. etc. That is why we should champion the likes of Michael and Stellios. They were the ones that bought cheap flights to the masses. We're not in it to go backwards to the middle ages after all. So, woe bitied (?) any government that tries to stop us. They'll just see it as an excuse to tax us more anyway. It's not in their interest to stop aviation and throw thousands on the dole queue.
The aviation market as anyone who has been in the business for as long as I have ( both ground and now flight deck ) will tell you things are cyclic. There will always be movement and jobs in the turboprop market but the plum jet jobs will be harder to get during the 'lows'.
My advice is for anyone starting out now only do it if you can afford to lose the money on, say, a bet. We are about to go into a lull for a couple of years I think and a lot of people are at the moment sitting tight. Nice for the airline bosses looking at the current T & C's of their pilots.
It will return though have no doubt. The next peak may be some time into the next decade though I'm sorry to say.
Best of luck though if you're a 'wannabe' .

[Kengineer-130]

The thing to remember with oil is that we may well invent a new technology before we even get close to running out of the black stuff :ok:.... Don't forget the Stone age didn't end because we ran out of stone, and neither did the bronze or iron age end because we ran out of them :ok:....

Neccesity drives change, my money is on hydrogen fuel cells.....:cool:

As for the future of wannabe's, I am in a predicament to take the plunge and chase my dreams of being a commercial pilot, or stick with being an engineer, all of which are still based around aviation so I am screwed either way :}:{

[Carl Rawson]

Amen to the fuel cell technology! I wish that they would not keep pumping the electricity that is generated by renewables straight into the National fcuking Grid! This ad-hoc technology does nothing to lower emissions from power stations that take a day to start. ('scuse my language and outburst. I think that 's for another debate.):ugh:
H2 is the way forward, I agree, and it should be stored for use as and when and the best way to get it for storage is from renewables as and when they are available.
Good luck if you go for it. It's better than ess-ee-ex when things get tasty.

[AvEnthusiast]

Do you think those who will lose their jobs due to merger or ariline shut down will rush to asian countries and at any condition work for asian airlines?

[markrl]

In the short term recession and the sky high price of oil will undoubtedly cause a sharp drop in demand for flying followed by the inevitable and painful contraction of the industry. But contrary to what all the doomongers are saying oil is not yet going to run out and after the rain the economic sun will shine once again. It may take 5 years to get over the aftermath of NuLabour's economic mismanagement and overtaxation but things will eventually recover. China's super economic growth will also slow taking the pressure off oil demand. The public has a taste for air travel (and cars for that matter) and no matter what the politicians do they wont get the genie back in the bottle. In due course it will be business as usual :ok:

[CAT II]

Still a very subjective theory. Saudi Arabia (KSA) have the largest oil reserves, no one really beleives they are what they say they are, but that is "conventional oil". Canada's oil sands have 1.7 trillion barrels of oil of which 10% is commercially viable at $64/barrel with present technology....what was the last quote for oil....? 10% of the known tar sands reserves at 3M barrels/day will last for 170 years. The Steam Assited Gravity Drainage SAGD process now has the ability to extract up to 60% of the oil from the tar sands. It's all a question of price and return on investment. Bottom line, the oil is available to fuel the aviation industry but how much will we and the traveling public be willing to pay?

World demand 2006 was 86M barrels/day and will be 118m barrels/day by 2030. Simply put, 1.7 trillion would last 40 years at 118 million barrels a day consumption.

[saccade]

Gordon Brown: We must all act together

"The oil crisis is a global problem requiring global solutions."

"The global economy is facing the third great oil shock of recent decades."

"The cause of rising prices is clear: growing demand and too little supply to meet it both now and - perhaps of even greater significance - in the future."

etc, etc.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/may/28/gordonbrown.oil



Hmm... this kind of language makes me think... where is my cognac?

[INNflight]

It all boils down to oil really. Oil being a finite resource, it has a finite life. The $64,000 dollar question is when does the price of oil make it uneconomical for airlines to fly. I'm convinced that the end is nigh for oil, but not for 30+ years.

Absolutely agree. Why would one expect the price / barrel to drop by a lot and especially long term?!? We're running out of oil, hence the price raises. That's just logical and not different than with anything else.

The fewer seats on an aircraft left the more they cost. The fewer oil, the more money you got to weed out :eek: :8

btw: I saw experts ( whatever that means nowadays ) on the news who forecasted oil prices of 350-400 dollars / barrel not too far in the future. Now THAT'D make me wonder about the nice fuel surcharge on my Ryanair tix :yuk: