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View Full Version : Is This The End for Gordon?


SOPS
23rd May 2008, 04:18
17% swing in Crewe, as predicted. Can Gordon hang on now?...Discuss

Richard Taylor
23rd May 2008, 07:08
Bye Gordo....

HOGE
23rd May 2008, 07:11
The worrying thing is who we'll get next....................:eek:

Blacksheep
23rd May 2008, 07:15
And who exactly are we recommending to take his place? The Labour Party will certainly cling grimly onto power until the end of their term, whoever is leading them; then there will be a general election. Hopefully by then Gordon will have led them so far down the tax-and-spend route that they will be reduced to a handful of seats and become the third party.

One lives in hope... :)

qwertyplop
23rd May 2008, 07:39
:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

I can't wait to be ruled once again by the Eton elite. I know my place and I'm very happy with it.

It's time the working classes went back to theirs and forgot all these New Labour grand notions of the whatever the thicko's thought they were getting when they inflicted these asses on the country in 1997.

Time for a return to class driven politics.

Hip Hip Hooray..!! :}

airborne_artist
23rd May 2008, 07:47
The current drop of Conservatives is just as well-meaning as Blair's crop of 1997, and have as much experience of running anything as that lot. With the exception of David Davies, who made it some way up Tate and Lyle, the rest of the shadow cabinet are career politicians, albeit well-educated, with the usual herd of lawyers, journos etc.

The party I'd really want to vote for would have grey hairs and wrinkles, gained at the school of hard knocks in business. The thing is, those guys are too sensible to take up politics in their 40s/50s.

Beatriz Fontana
23rd May 2008, 08:36
Gerbil Blears called for party unity last night- before the result in Crewe was known. Brown won't go unless he's pushed (he's wanted the power for too long to let it go lightly).

The Cabinet is too weak to launch a leadership challenge so some lowly backbencher will start the ball rolling before a minister says 'oh, go on then.'

But the UK people I think won't like the idea of another PM that they didn't elect, so if the Tories are worth their weight, they should use this as another stick to beat the ailing regime.

So we could have an election sooner than we think. October 3rd, anyone?

Lydia Dustbin
23rd May 2008, 09:52
Airborne

The party I'd really want to vote for would have grey hairs and wrinkles, gained at the school of hard knocks in business.

I think the reason these guys don't come into politics these days is the ruthless efficiency of the media. Most people (broad brush statement i know) from the school of hard knocks have too many skeletons in there cupboards to enter politics. I would LOVE to go into politics, but the press would have a field day
reporting on my adventures between the ages of 20 and 35. So its mainly career politicians only these days. Ordinary folks have to many 'scandals....not! waiting for the press to sell newspapers on.

selfloadingcargo
23rd May 2008, 10:05
saw a picture of him this morning looking more than ever like he's sucked a lemon...has any politician got a more forced smile than Gordy?

Effluent Man
23rd May 2008, 10:16
Probably the end,as indeed it was for Winston,Clement, Winston (again),Anthony,Harold,Alec,Harold(different one),Ted,Jim,Maggie,John and Tony. Dave will be the next as soon as the electorate have him in place for a couple of years and then realise that they are still unhappy with their lives and blame him for that.

What people REALLY want is a low tax government that provides first rate health care,education,policing, pensions, and petrol free at the pumps,preferably with quadruple green shield stamps.

Me,I'm pretty happy whoever is in government.I live in a house considerably better than the one my parents had and I own mine.I have a car,enough food,(some might say too much)enough heat,holiday when I want one,a decent job with no boss.Don't know about half full,my glass overflows on a daily basis.

Flap 5
23rd May 2008, 10:51
Effluent do you own your house or does the bank own it?

People who have half full / empty glasses just have glasses that are twice as big as they should be. Yours is clearly too small if it is overflowing.

Semantics? Well this government seems to survive on semantics and spin.

Gordon will survive until the next election which will now be as late as possible as the government calls the election. In the meantime the country is going down the pan with prices, taxes, overpopulation, etc..

Effluent Man
23rd May 2008, 11:55
I own my own house,business and stock.The reason for this being 30 years hard work and relatively modest lifestyle. I.E. No Rolex,multiple wives,kids at private schools etc,plus the occasional lucky break.

G-CPTN
23rd May 2008, 13:25
When will we have proportional representation and local income tax instead of council tax, and high enough tax-free allowances to encourage people to work for less so that they can get off benefits and do away with organisational-hungry tax credits which I believe complicates things.
Allow people to keep as much as possible of what they earn up to a true 'living wage'. Them as has very little shouldn't pay whilst those that earn s should be made to pay the appropriate amount of tax to cover the needs of the poor rather than stupid (IMO) tax credits.
The whole tax credit and benefit system seems to me to be un-necessarily complicated and bureaucratic.
KISS.

I would be interested to hear support for tax credits . . .

yellowsubmarine
23rd May 2008, 13:36
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7416562.stm

:ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh: :ugh:

Just when you thought it couldnt get worse than Blair!

What a repetative Prat.

YS

Avitor
23rd May 2008, 13:52
Brown is up a certain creek, I forget the name of it, without a paddle.
Bye, Robot Brown.

goshdarnit
23rd May 2008, 14:32
the ruthless efficiency of the media


WOW
That's a good 'un - and it's got to be unique on PPRuNe.

MReyn24050
23rd May 2008, 15:47
What a repetative Prat
Agreed, it is always "We will address......" it is about time he said "We are addressing......." and show us that they are.

Krystal n chips
23rd May 2008, 17:01
It's not so much the fact they lost..it's more to do with the fact this lot are so arrogant, self centric and basically incompetent and F:mad:ing stupid / indifferent they haven't got the acumen to understand why..and rectify the problems.

OK, so it's goodbye tae wee Gordon...but look what's waiting in the wings....think Gordon is useless ( along with all the rest of the handpicked sycophants )....wait until Dilatory David and Co make their entrance. "Fun times" ahead in the UK methinks !.

Flap 5
23rd May 2008, 18:06
I say let Cameron have a go. He couldn't do any worse and you never know he might actually do what he says he will do. Now that would be a revelation.

Salusa
23rd May 2008, 18:20
In this case it's UK plc and Gordon was fine as a Chancellor, but he was never a good candidate for the position as general manager.

It's horses for courses and his is not that of leader but as adviser.

Tony Blair was the general manager and Gordon was then in his rightful place as his financial adviser.


My Bolds.

Thanks for the giggle. I done a little wee I laughed so hard:ok:

Utrinque Apparatus
23rd May 2008, 19:46
And take that dreadful, mad staring deluded woman Hazel Blears with you on the way out Gordon !

Don't worry, lessons will be learned, Gordon is listening, he knows our concerns and the result is just a mid term blip - Yeah, right :E

Salusa
23rd May 2008, 19:58
Now I know I have got some peoples backs up on other threads by posting images of Cherie Bliar, so just for that reason here is my interpretation of Gordon Brown.

I await incoming flak henceforth.

(A slimy stranded one eyed fish surrounded by pricks).

http://img165.imageshack.us/img165/1204/gordyhz7.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

Parapunter
23rd May 2008, 20:05
Effluent man, amen to your philosophy. Funny thing is, the harder I worked, the luckier I got.:confused: Now, can you do me a deal on a Mini Cooper? I fancy leather & the 18" wheels.:ok:

Now, as for oor Broon, the one thing I find that politicians loathe more than the electorate, is the idea of being on the heap. Labour is not known for assasinating it's leaders, but I suspect that posh Dave will hurry along the next by election to replace Boris the mayor in order to capitalise on Crewe & Nantwich, and will likely wipe the floor again at which stage, the shadowy suits will stir.

You may think that, I couldn't possibly comment...

LGS6753
23rd May 2008, 20:30
When Broon "smiles" he looks like a serial killer.

He seems to enjoy taxing us poor sods so that he can play "schools'n'hospitals" with the cash. Unfortunately, his playing has not improved education and healthcare one jot.

As Chancellor he was a total disaster. Unbelievably complex credits that reward the feckless at the expense of the honest working man. A massive raid on private sector pensions that has impoverished companies and their employees, yet a failure to tackle gold-plated public sector pensions in the same way. Utterly dishonest "stealth" taxes designed to deceive the public. No attempt to prepare for the inevitable downturn, just a complacent mantra saying that he has "abolished boom and bust". Like hell he has. The final straw, hitting the lowest paid workers by increasing their income tax, in an attempt to look good.

The sooner he and his disreputable bunch of socialists fade away the better.

Ma'am
23rd May 2008, 22:01
Gordon Brown appears to have aged a lot recently. He looks haggard, with swinging jowls, and his pallor is a shade of gunmetal grey.

And the man has never been able to recognise a 'top' in a market, whether that be gold, politics, or the economy.

The clock's ticking Gordon, best get your hat and coat.

selfloadingcargo
23rd May 2008, 23:04
....if you let him have a hat and coat, he'll only increase taxes to pay for it. Let him go hatless and coatless.....

chiglet
24th May 2008, 00:17
And to cap it all.....WE [the Electorate] are paying for his chuffin' Sky package.....:ugh::mad::yuk:
watp,iktch

sitigeltfel
24th May 2008, 10:38
Labour are confident of winning the next election..........


........they are going to ask Mugabe to count the votes.

Effluent Man
24th May 2008, 11:07
I wouldn't get too excited.I think if Brown stays the Tories will win,but bear in mind that parties that look dead in the water mid term can stage remarkable come backs.Who in 1990 would have thought Major could have won.Certainly not the Tories.

Politics militates against the Tories too.A Liberal voter will often vote Labour and vice versa but may be reluctant to change sides.Ahead of boundary changes the Tories could get a considerably bigger share of the vote and no majority.That isn't a conspiracy,just the way demographic changes move people around constituencies over a period of time.

The problem for the Tories would really come if Gordon was replaced with someone less charisma-free,say young Millipede.Whether you like Blair or not he was possessed with huge amounts of charisma,and it worked.

Effluent Man
24th May 2008, 12:21
And I'm not convinced by Dave either.Before you true blues get all hot under the collar I share the opinion of Simon Heffer of the Daily Torygraph,that he isn't,or at least does not appear to be,a Tory.

An interesting piece on Radio 4 this am by Bob Worcester of MORI about how the white C2 vote has deserted Brown.The skilled manual voters (of whom there are a huge number) have decided that Brown does not represent their views for several reasons,but the big thing is the economy.

As long as people perceive things are getting better they are happy,at the moment they don't feel that.With Dave I think they may be grasping at the very straw that will break their backs.

SOPS
24th May 2008, 12:48
Have you checked out the way his mouth "trembles" slightly when he is talking now? He gives the appearance of a very worried man, not one in control at all.

LGS6753
24th May 2008, 13:17
Has a Prime Minister ever cracked up whilst in office?

You know; gibbering, saying things over and over again, drooling, displaying a facial tic, that kind of thing.

Wait a minute...

Broon's cracking up!

ZH875
24th May 2008, 13:23
Tony Blair was the general manager and Gordon was then in his rightful place as his financial adviser.


I thought Gordo was Bliars Sexual Advisor:



Like when Bliar wanted Gordo's :mad: advice, he would ask for it, until then shut the :mad: up Gordo.

Krystal n chips
24th May 2008, 14:18
Watched and listened to Ms Yakety Yak,,,,,or Hazel Blears if you prefer.... last night who duly outperformed even her usual inane capacity to produce verbal drivel on a grand scale by blissfully informing us that the reason Nu Labour did so badly was purely because we were all concerned with the economy and how it affects us.....and that was it really.

With such an astounding grasp of the facts as to why Nu Labour are sinking fast....there are one or two more issues that have clearly escaped Hectoring Hazel's razor sharp perceptions in case some minion reads this...unlikely of course...:rolleyes: and thus an insight as to why the junta really haven't a clue as to why they are in the mess they are.....:ugh:

She once did a "look at me in contact with the plebs" act by doing a short stint on a check out and saying that she could be doing this in the future....nice bit of crystal ball gazing after recent events one hopes :E

frostbite
24th May 2008, 15:47
Heard some plonker of a journalist suggest that Brown should be replaced by Blears!

That should get them a resounding null points at an election.

SOPS
25th May 2008, 08:20
not that it will happen......but......Skynews is reporting this morning that 40 back benchers are planning a leadership challenge.

Firestorm
25th May 2008, 08:58
Did anyone see yesterday's front page on The Telegraph? Bro Brown visiting a hospital, but standing under a sign pointing to the Way Out! Spin gaff there Gordo! Can't wait to see the back of him. I think that Mr Cameron is a bit too center of Right for my taste, but maybe it is a ruse to capture the imagination of the swing voter to get the true governing party back to their rightful place before dropping the pretence, and getting back to the point. We'll see.

TwinAisle
25th May 2008, 12:43
Hate to break this to you, but Gordon is as safe as a hou... no, something safer than that!

Reason is simple - either Labour think they can win the next election, or they don't.

If they think they can win, they will stick with Gordo, and won't risk a filthy campaign to unseat him, since that would stuff their chances. Let's face it, he waited ten years for the job, he is not going to just say "ok, it was fun, bye".... and that will split the party, leading to inevitable defeat.

If they don't, no-one will stand against him - none of the leading lights will want the job, since they get one shot at it, and they will get the blame for the annihilation at the polls. They will wait, and let Gordo get that, and then come in as the great white hope to rebuild the party. They may get a useless old has-been to do the job ("be PM, get your name in history" etc - Charles Clark springs to mind, or Blunkett), but that is akin to saying "we know we are stuffed" - which will make their defeat much, much deeper....

Gordon, like it or lump it, is going to be there until the next General Election - and will string it out as long as he can la John Major. Which on my reckoning means we have him until the early hours of 30 April 2010....

Yeesh.

Beatriz Fontana
25th May 2008, 16:01
SOPS,

Have you checked out the way his mouth "trembles" slightly when he is talking now? He gives the appearance of a very worried man, not one in control at all.

I have it on good authority that he's always acted like that, but we've never noticed because he's been less high profile than he is now.

I did think 3rd October would be a date for an election, but because that's slap bang in the middle of the annual political b**k-fest, sorry, conference season, then I'll bring it forward to the end of July... either that or the 6th November.

chiglet
25th May 2008, 16:11
Gordon, like it or lump it, is going to be there until the next General Election - and will string it out as long as he can la John Major. Which on my reckoning means we have him until the early hours of 30 April 2010....

Re the "Mouth Trembles", IIRC he had elecution therapy for that. Look at any pre 1997 speech of his :yuk:
OOOO, goody. I should have [been] moved to Jockistan then...:E
watp,iktch

glad rag
25th May 2008, 16:49
TA yes that is an accurate prediction I am afraid.

Stingaling
26th May 2008, 05:30
Any party the says there will be a national referendum, on the EU treaty, if they are elected to power again, then change their minds after being elected will be crucified at the next general election.

The only hope Labour have is to call a snap general election tomorrow and loose gracefully. If they wait until they have to call a general election, they will be slaughtered.

Talk about nightmare on Gordon street.

Utrinque Apparatus
26th May 2008, 09:44
Of course, Gordon being the hard man for "the Job" he thinks he is, he might just have the last laugh on the NuLab assassins circling his sorry carcass by resigning and forcing an early General Election ?

Then he can go back to Scotland, replace Alex Salmond and completely :mad: up the Scottish economy before retiring on his gold plated pension and taking a new job as a traffic warden on Rockall

TwinAisle
26th May 2008, 10:53
The only hope Labour have is to call a snap general election tomorrow and loose gracefully

Can't see that happening. Gordo has waited for ten years for this job, a job that he thought was his by birth right, who sat and watched as the Young Pretender got it instead. There is no way that he is going to go gently into that good night....

Watching Gordo, I can't help but be reminded of all those young boys and girls who want to be fighter pilots/astronauts/professional footballers etc and who end up in ordinary jobs. Gordo wanted to be PM when he was a kid, apparently, but someone ought to have told him that he wasn't up to snuff - the same reason I'll never be a fighter pilot!

he might just have the last laugh on the NuLab assassins circling his sorry carcass by resigning and forcing an early General Election

See above. Also, my experience of politicians at this level (and I have been pretty close to quite a few of them over the years) is that they always consider their legacy. Brown will never do anything that would reflect badly on him in this way - he may stuff up running the country (let's face it, quite a few PMs have done that over the years!) but he wouldn't want to be remembered as the PM who blew the Labour Party to atoms....

Counting the days until 30/4/10....

Beatriz Fontana
26th May 2008, 11:05
The ever reliable Guido Fawkes (http://www.order-order.com/2008/05/milibandwagon-scared-to-roll.html) reckons Milliband, D. is readying himself to "save the party from catastrophe" and if Brown leads Labour into an election whitewashing, New Labour will be dead and buried and return to the left wing. Maybe that's not a bad thing, because this bland "middle way" politics is even turning off a political animal like me.

The pay-off though is that Milliband, D. hasn't got the guts to do it. I return to my earlier thoughts - a sacrificial backbencher will start the ball rolling before a more likely leader from the Cabinet steps up in the record round.

chiglet
26th May 2008, 12:56
Liked old fatty Two Jags on tv last night. Gordon needs a Deputy PM, after all [Ishould know, 'cos] I wasthe longest servig DPM of all....:ugh:
watp,iktch

selfloadingcargo
26th May 2008, 16:58
...and which of the younger members of the Cabinet is going to want to b*ll*cks up any future prospects for him/her by leading Labour to a defeat in the next Election? Nope, tin hats all round for them and wait 'til the shelling is over.
Gordon will be leading the party at the next election because whatever else they may be sh*te at, his colleagues all have well-developed senses of self-preservation.......only other possibility is the one Beatriz notes above - a sacrificial back-bencher who will never be PM otherwise.

ORAC
26th May 2008, 17:21
Brown's Downfall (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ApFh6ZGIMk) :E:E

Standard Noise
26th May 2008, 21:12
Summat in papers today about 30 odd Labour MPs supporting a motion to have the new VED rates scrapped cos they think it'll bring the end of Labour this time round because on the back of the 10p tax fiasco, Gordon & his feckwit cabinet have alienated almost all of their support of the last 11 years.

helimutt
26th May 2008, 21:52
Turn up your sound and sit back and watch this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MZQkYnPo2sA

not for children!

TwinAisle
26th May 2008, 22:07
I'll stand by my prediction - the last thing ANY Labour MP wants right now is a general election, since an awful lot of them are headed off for the Job Centre the day after it....

There'll be a few of them flexing their muscles, but as the old adage goes, when a man looks into the abyss and sees nothing staring back at him, in that moment man knows his character....

It is not a "John Major" scenario - he had a lousy majority, so his back benchers could push him around, knowing they were all toast anyway. In Gordo's case, they won't rock the boat unless they are sure that replacing Gordo will help them win. It won't. So they won't, not seriously anyway.

Krystal n chips
27th May 2008, 06:01
It will be the end for Gordon if he, and the sycophants, actually proceed with this tax...it may not have registered within their thick skulls that this will affect a large percentage of the population.....called voters.

No doubt one of the talking air heads will have a pefectly viable excuse to justify the tax. :rolleyes:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/may/27/travelandtransport.carbonemissions

Dan D'air
27th May 2008, 06:35
Is This The End for Gordon?

Let's hope so.

RobT100
27th May 2008, 07:06
It just makes me wonder who the idiots were who voted these buffoons into government fairly recently ???? :mad: :ugh:

joehunt
27th May 2008, 08:02
Do you think Gordon has these words on his mind?: Come back Tony and John, all is forgiven!

Old Blair showed some magnificent timing when you think about it. Was in power for 10 years (a record?) and in the process f***** the country for everyone else then gave the reins to that oaf Brown, while he rode off into the sunset with our money. Talk about a rat off a sinking ship!

Bet brown is thinking he has been, "handed the baby after it had just s**t!

Effluent Man
27th May 2008, 10:08
Mid term bye elections are not necessarily a good guide to the outcome of the next General.Cast your minds back to April 1990.Economy in a nosedive,house prices following,Strangeways having it's roof slates frisbeed across Manchester by various rapists and axe murderers, Trafalgar Square wrecked by the massed band of Swampies First Light Soap Dodgers.Two years later Major gets back into number 10.

The most likely worst case scenario for most on here is young Millipede taking the reins about this time next year and going for it in the autumn while the media are telling us that all the old girls,and,lets be thoroughly modern and PC about this,quite a few boys too - are going all weak at the knees every time he appears.

Likely outcome - hung parliament. Dave crucified by Tory press.

Utrinque Apparatus
27th May 2008, 10:56
Effluent Man

I'll have one of what you're having, or smoking - without the extra taxes on it ! :}

Delusional, wishful thinking - Are you Gordon Brown ? :ok:

Effluent Man
27th May 2008, 11:15
I have a (sad I know) interest in statistics and predicted both 1997 and 2001 majorities to within 10 seats.2005 I was out by 20. I am really quite disinterested in who wins.Your reaction to my post seems to be a case of shooting the messenger.

TwinAisle
27th May 2008, 11:30
The most likely worst case scenario for most on here is young Millipede taking the reins about this time next year and going for it in the autumn while the media are telling us that all the old girls,and,lets be thoroughly modern and PC about this,quite a few boys too - are going all weak at the knees every time he appears.


Interesting thought - but the only way Millipede will do this is if he really thinks he is in with a shout of winning. No-one like him (rising star, eyes on No 10 at some point etc etc) will go for it unless they are pretty damned sure they are going to win, since the alternative is oblivion. John Major sort of proves the point - if he had gone tango uniform in 1992, he would have been disposed of pronto, and any hopes he may have had of high office would have gone the way of all flesh....

I still think there are three scenarios:

1. Labour Party thinks it can win under Gordo - perhaps an amended Gordo, with new "Hug-a-Taxpayer" policies - in which case he is safe;
2. Labour Party dumps Gordo in favour of someone better - which will be acrimonious (Gordo will fight like a cornered polecat), will split the party and will result in a massive Tory victory, after which someone like Millipede will get the job of rebuilding (assuming the party doesn't lurch off to the Left, god help us); Mega high risk from a party point of view;
3. Labour Party has accepted it is in for a stuffing, and Gordo will carry the can and resign afterwards.

In order of likelihood, 3,1,2 imho.

There is going to be a period of headless chicken syndrome amongst the backbenchers - let's face it, an awful lot of them came in under the Blessed Leader, and none of them have known a kicking. They will get restless when they see a chance that they may not have a job soon. Political parties tend to take a longer view, and will treat junior backbenchers as cannon fodder if they have to, a message that is just starting to percolate through the minds of the chattering class MPs.... Remember that in the Labour Party, the choice of leader is not just a matter for MPs, and I would bet that most CLPs will say "stop p***ing about and do what we elected you to do"....

TA

Effluent Man
27th May 2008, 12:10
CLP's of course don't live in the real world.Their choice would have been Michael Meacher instead of Blair and today would be someone like Alan Simpson or John Cruddas,who about 97% of the electorate would regard as "loony left".

But my initial point remains.Mid term by elections give very little genuine indication of what is to come.The tendency is for the supporters of an unpopular governing party to stay at home whereas at the General election they turn out.The Conservatives need a 10% lead to attain a simple majority because of the demographics.

My best guess at the moment is that this is about what they will achieve 40% to 30%.The effect of UKIP should not be underestimated they will draw support on at a least a 2/1 split Tory/Labour.

My interest is only partly in the politics,I have made a few bob by betting on the results -The 2001 election paid for a fortnight in Provence!

Curious Pax
27th May 2008, 12:37
So what do you predict in terms of seats Effluent Man?

Although things clearly don't look good for Gordon, I wonder if it will all end in tears. Don't forget that Labour came out of the 2005 election with a 66 majority, and of the 8 by-elections since then they have only lost 2 seats (one each to the Tories and Liberals), so they still have 62. In terms of seats the Tories now have 198, against 353 for Labour, so any swing will have to be big as has been mentioned.

I suspect that the outcome will depend on what happens to the economy over the next 23 months - if we get over the current difficulties to a sufficient degree that the average man in the street doesn't see or fear a deterioration in his standard of living then Brown may get away with it. You only have to look at polls for the best song/film ever to see that the public often have the memory of a goldfish!

If that starts happening sooner than spring 2010 we may see an earlier election, but I think Oct 2009 is the very earliest that would be, and March/April 2010 is the likeliest unless something major occurs.

My bet is that the election will be March 18th 2010, Gordon will still be in charge, and the outcome is a slim Labour majority (<20), or a hung parliament which leads to Labour and Liberal coalition. The Liberals keeping Labour in power will go down badly with the electorate, and some remaining Labour MPs, and will eventually cause another election in 2013 that the Tories will win.

But I never win bets on anything......

Effluent Man
27th May 2008, 16:18
It's difficult to predict at this stage because of the unknown factors.This was really the point that I was making.Two years is a long time in politics and if the economy is showing signs of recovery then this will affect the electorates views.I made my calculations within weeks of the elections and used spread betting. This gives you potential of large wins,but if you get it wildly wrong you can lose a lot too.

My best guess at the moment.Tories largest party but no overall majority.

TwinAisle
27th May 2008, 16:30
the Tories now have 198, against 353 for Labour, so any swing will have to be big as has been mentioned

The swing is less than you'd imagine, since a lot of the Labour MPs have smallish majorities, so you don't need a massive swing to get them out.

Couldn't agree more, Effluent Man, about a lot being possible in the next two years. I thought John Major was stuffed in 1992, so I will bow to your record on the outcomes! I would reiterate though that I think Gordo is safe until the next election, and I reckon he will hang on as long as he can...

My bet is that the election will be March 18th 2010

Could be - Easter is 4 April that year, so it makes sense to get the election out of the way. Could go the week after, but failing that, it looks like my "Last Call for Passengers on Gordo Flight One to the Dustbin of History" - 29 April '10.

CLP's of course don't live in the real world

That sort of implies that the MPs do, of course...:}

Life's a Beech
27th May 2008, 16:50
Effluent Man

Mid-term blues is a bit of a myth. It doesn't apply to the incumbent government but in fact to the Conservative party, whether in government or not. Sorry, I can't find my source on this but I only read it a couple of days ago and it was confirmed with statistics. Conservatives tend to poll better in general elections than in by-elections.

Beatriz Fontana
27th May 2008, 17:17
Did I hear right that that Crewe and Nantwich seat was something like 138 on the Tory hit list? That means if the swing continued to a General Election, the Labour government would be stuffed.

Life's a Beech
27th May 2008, 17:42
It was 165th, actually.

Gordon cannot content himself that this was mid-term by election (even ignoring the bit I read about mid-term blues). It was not just a narrow loss. Edward Timpson has a larger majority than Gwyneth Dunwoody had, and she was a long-serving MP who was greatly respected by all sides. If repeated at a general election Labour would be losing seats they hold with majorities of over 10,000! In fact direct comparison would wipe them out, they would hold only a few dozen.

Of course that is unlikely. While not mid-term blues, the protest vote might well be stronger than we will see in 2010. However even half the change in voting would allow Conservatives to keep this seat, and win many other seats with Labour majority of less than 7,000 over Conservatives. People like Patricia Hewitt would also be vulnerable, with a 9,000 or so majority but strong connection with a reviled administration. I am sure that LibDems would make some gains too, although I suspect they would lose some seats to the Conservatives and have little net change. They lost a small proportion of the vote in Crewe and Nantwich.

TwinAisle
28th May 2008, 12:17
Just out of interest, and for info - the Conservatives need an 8.1% swing to gain an overall majority in the House of Commons....

.... which is less than half the swing recorded in C&N.

Life's a Beech is right, C&N wasn't just mid-term grumpiness. People are heartily cheesed off with Gordo and the Incompetents, and a swing of 8.1% should be a walk in the park for the Boy David, if he keeps his nose clean. Which means Gordo will be as safe as a house, since no-one will want to carry the can for the forthcoming Labour meltdown....

Effluent Man
28th May 2008, 12:39
What I suggest then,if you are confident enough, is to back young Dave to romp home with a 120 majority.If it happens and you want to wager 100 you should collect a tidy wedge.

TwinAisle
28th May 2008, 12:53
Nah, I never bet....

Wouldn't say a 120 majority in any case - a victory, yes, but 120? Hope for it, doubt it...

SOPS
25th Jul 2008, 10:52
Well after todays result, the end must be getting closer....

colsie
25th Jul 2008, 11:13
Sorry just have to add in my two {insert currency here].

The conservatives will win the next general election. However as someone who wishes to join and run in elections for the conservatives in future (I want to do a lot of things by the way), it should be well and truly noted we are consensus politics in the UK now, and little if nothing will change that. The next election will see the labour constituencies with swing voters going lib dem, the conservatives gaining most of England as usual and Labour holding onto it's Scottish stornghold I believe. From this you will the conservatives will get a majority of about 125-130 (heres hoping), from this however they will be unable to pass any major class divison laws. Never mind that it would be impossible to do that in the UK now. Labour might loose seats in Scotland to the SNP and Lib Dems just as an addition at the end of this.

David Cameron is a political anaylysts dream, and if I am honest great to do studies on in class. He is Tony Blair but conservative, he is Maggie Thatcher but more liking of the whole UK.

I say bring back Thatchy, love that woman.

airborne_artist
25th Jul 2008, 11:16
Labour holding onto it's Scottish stornghold I believe

I'd say after last night's result you could be wrong. There must be many long-standing Scottish Labour MPs who are wondering if they'll still be shopping in John Lewis in June 2010.

colsie
25th Jul 2008, 11:24
Yeah I take that back now after finding out that news. I have just woken up and am yet to turn on a TV.

Gutted about that. The SNP don't deserve to win, however it does say something.

I do hope these people are happy I have to go back to school and study this now.

Doors to Automatic
25th Jul 2008, 11:55
All that useless dour idiot can come out with is the usual "getting on with the job" nonsense!

Great, Gordon, that's all ok now we can all go back to voting Labour!

Blacksheep
25th Jul 2008, 12:03
Never mind 8.1% swings. I shan't be happy unless and until the Labour party and all its grumbly miserati join the Whigs as an interesting piece of political history. :oh:

colsie
25th Jul 2008, 12:06
The whigs are the Lib Dems. I have always loved how people have forgotten old labour so quickly, or have we just forgotten about socialism and that Labour stand for it?

Sallyann1234
25th Jul 2008, 12:20
I have always loved how people have forgotten old labour so quickly, or have we just forgotten about socialism and that Labour stand for it?
And your personal memory of old labour is what, exactly?

colsie
25th Jul 2008, 12:31
No personal memory. A lot fo research and education. I was unfortunate to have a teacher who wanted to force the labour philosophy from the 60-80's.

The only thing I can think of which Labour really have done which is good is the NHS when it first started.

Wader2
25th Jul 2008, 13:28
I read most of page 1 until I realised it was 2 months old :}.

Next PM? How about Swiss Des? He has proved he can run two departments and fight two wars at the same time.

Safe pair of hands?

Or perhaps the leader of the House?

Davaar
25th Jul 2008, 16:09
The only thing I can think of which Labour really have done which is good is the NHS when it first started

That is, take over a vast network of hospitals dating back a thousand years all or most of which had been built and run by the maligned churches and other charities. It is years since I left the UK, stupidly unaware that Canada was run by da Leeberal, but I recall reading of the first UK NHS-built hospital. Was it perhaps Ninewells Hospital in Dundee? Can't remember where or when, but it must be a matter of record, and certainly many years after 1945.

colsie
25th Jul 2008, 18:10
The first form of free health in the UK was in 1921 in the Scottish highlands for those in extreme poverty. Can't remember more than that about it however, it's what i get for reading the Daily Record.:}

ORAC
29th Aug 2008, 17:19
He's cracking up...

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3076/2804900687_69a6c3b85a_o.jpg