Are Virgin Cutting Flights?

[Dog One]

Friends who travel regulary from down far south to Darwin have had their bookings changed from the direct MEL - DRW flight to via BNE - DRW, a much longer time consuming flight. Last time this also occurred, they were advised that due to crew shortages, the MEL flight was combined with the BNE flight. Although I see the MEL - DRW flight is still scheduled on their travel date, perhaps they cannot crew the intended flights and are planning to axe them

One would think that the May - July period is the dry season in DRW, and the load factors are pretty high, why would they drop flights, when QF are increasing capacity into DRW?

[gav_20022002]

Not sure if they are cutting back due pilots at the moment but last april i had the same, booked YPDN - YMML then about 6hrs before my intended departure got a call saying i was now on the Darwin -Brisbane -Melb flight instead and instead of getting in to melb at around 0600 wouldnt be getting in till around mid morning which made it interesting for my connecting flights. then had the same thing happen on the way back up. the reson i was told is because they were short of pilots but un sure if that has changed...could just be because they dont have enough pax to fill it up..... then when they dry is here put it back on.

[TROJAN764]

If Virgin are, indeed, cutting flights, it's not because their pilots are being 'poached ' by QantasLink!:rolleyes:

[Stationair8]

Likewise Dog1 relatives have been booked ex YMML DCT YPDN early May, but now have to go via YBBN.

[Prado]

Perhaps you should point them to J*, two direct MEL-DRW's each day now. Its not suprising that they've increased capacity given that they were at near full capacity on all DRW flights from ADL, MEL or BNE last dry.

Cheers
Prado.

[windytown]

On a similar vein is the question of Pacific Blue's 7th 737.

With it reportedly being used to provide the lift for the newly announced and bookable Dunedin daily return flight from early July there is the question of what is will do the rest of the day.

Another PPRUNE post adviced it would be used for extra Trans-Tasman frequency incl Brisbane much of the time. Timing wise this makes sense, particularly given the high prices AirNZ is charging for July school holiday flights to Qld, and that many NZer like to go to Qld in winter (I could imagine an 8th plane being added in Summer to improve links to Sydney to feed traffic to V Australia and generally fill in some gaps in Pac Blue schedule).

Given people are booking their July tickets now, I would have expected that Pacific Blue would have announced extra July flights by now, to ensure they get good market share/avoid having too many last minute discount fares.

Any additional insight into routes and timings would be much appreciated.

[somniferous]

Perhaps Virgin are struggling to fill the seats now that they are competing with Jetstar and Tiger on the YMML - YPDN route?

[Bluebottle]

Check the asx website for the VBA announcement at 5:49p.m. and the TOL one at 5:57p.m.

http://asx.com.au/asx/statistics/todayAnnHeaders.jsp

[airtags]

been coming for a while given the Toll Board's focus on core - Little eluded to the sell down a while back. The interesting hypothesis will be who will pick up the VB shareholding that Toll (possibly will) unload and where the market will rate the value.

Not surprisingly I hear and see VB is continuing to aggressively cut costs and put an (albeit subtle) healthy distance between its investor profile and the 'Bransonesque' B.S.

[rescue 1]

Does this mean the "pilot shortage" is coming to an end?

Jetstar has apparently stopped recruiting till years end due to the delay of the B787.

The price of oil, sub-prime mortage markets, Opus, interest rates - the perfect storm is building...

Did I read in the DJ EBA an out clause to reduce salaries? Will this be invoked with the targeted $100M cost reductions?

[wirgin blew]

Dont know what the loads are like but the utilisation of crew on these flights is pretty bad. MEL-DRW-MEL is Mon, Weds, Sat. Which means tech crew get a long layover in DRW for not much work. Cabin crew only operate one sector and pax the other. If the company is looking for routes to save money on then this would be the first to go.

[G.A. Boy]

But you got to admit it has to be the best layover we have. 48 hours in DRW, with full allowances. But I aggree, what a waste of pilot utilisation. Hope it lasts.

[greenslopes]

Yeh but whats going on with VB's share price? They buy more aircraft(737,E190/70 & 777) so presumably they are worth more yet their share price has dropped to 89c. I wouldn't want to be Paul Little.

[airtags]

greenslopes:
the VB share price will rebound a little - just lots of squarky analysts in a very 'toey' market that is jumping at shadows and becoming very conservative.

Today's drop is both a multiplier of the Toll repositioning and the continuing impact of financial reporting structures [which were introduced in late 05 and means that companies that VB that have had a tendancy to regularly amortise or carry forward specific capital (eg start up...?.....which was 8 years ago) will look worse if there is a real downturn in revenue during a quarterly reporting period.]

vb's looks worse due to its relative low asset base and high gearing in some parts of the biz - but moreover due to things coinciding like Toll wishing to 'get back to core business' (code for pls buy our shares in VB and our sidebar businesses), serious concerns over domestic consumer demand and things like fuel and the cost of money.

VB's board and B.Godfrey will no doubt be cautiously talking it up as indeed they should, however, I'd expect the VB blade of scrutiny to keep falling on any area of costs that it can....and not just stop at taking out crew meals reducing frequency of transport at some ports etc etc.,

The few people running around proffering that its a parody to Ansett are way off the mark. DJ is just going to have dance a bit harder and faster.

On the upside: VB's position though may help to discourage some of the other LCC's that have been seeing the end of the rainbows in Australian skies. (Nobody ever gets rich out of aviation except ex wives!)

[questil]

good informative post airtags
cheers

[greenslopes]

Two new types,softening economy in one emerging market(U.S),fuel price increasing when trying to pitch turbo fan against turbo prop..................I hope for all at VB the share price does rebound and not just the "Dead Cat Bounce"

[VH-JJW]

Whilst VB may not have the 'Legacy' issues Ansett had, it is amazing how many other similarities are building up between the two carriers.

Their main threat is that they (like) Ansett are surrounded by a bigger, more aggressive competitor which has worked hard to niche VB into their current position.

QF tolerate VB because it allows them to avoid monopoly costs whilst enjoying near monopoly profits. However, I dare say if that situation were to end, i.e. VB getting too big, then the rat would strike with a vengeance.

The 777 services are $500k a pop. If QF engages in a price war, it will very quickly drain the coffers of V. However, I suspect V will be left largely alone to prevent the entry of SQ on the LAX route.

[Prado]

Airtags, you sound like a shareholder trying to talk yourself up given the events of the moment. It is interesting you raise comments about the financial reporting in VB, similar points have been raised about various Virgin companies, perhaps in a not so positive light, in the non-authorised biography "Branson".

Certainly not a glamorous position for VB to be in, and I can only imagine the pressure Toll will be applying.

There are glaring similarities with the AN situation, most noteably the profit figure being appalling in relation to the capital invested, and that was before the latest profit downgrade!

Cheers
Prado.

[airtags]

thanks Prado - but no VB shares for me (or Toll for that matter either)
I'm kind of on the same view as Keg in the related thread that's running about VB - it is a little underdone at the moment and good for some patient money to pick up some shares.

Your comments re Branson are correct through - especially some of the 'future' obligations he has been sprouting seem a little weak at the knees.

That said those joining the dots from VB to QF and others' shares will see a rebound although it may take a while - though VB must cut some costs, decide whether it wants to be an LCC or a premium airline (& forget that 'new world carrier nonsense) and start thinking about net asset - which is what it is particularly light on at the moment.

Vb is not a bad airline - its just painted itself into a bit of Branson/70's time warp that has not kept up with the market directions

[Betsy]

Some time ago there was interest expressed by Star Alliance to woo DJ into their clan. I'm surprised DJ have not considered the offer and seem to have decided to go it all alone.

[DJCCGuy]

Perhaps if the airline did things properly it would be more appealing to the market they're trying to attract to bring in the $..e.g Premium Economy...has anyone seen this joke? You pay all the extra for no extra service onboard except for a slighly wider seat space, but due to it being a convertable seat it's not all that comfortable sitting between 2 seats...oh and there's still no IFE or drinks/snacks included in the price, it's still $2 for your water... why would anyone bother?