Cockpit Crisis

[SCATANA]

COCKPIT CRISIS

Dubai: While airlines fill their aircraft with increasing passenger loads, the struggle to fill the flight decks is reaching crisis level in the global air travel industry, says a study.According to A T Kearney, a global strategic management consulting firm, the shortage of commercial pilots in the GCC and across the world is now serious.

Industry experts predict at least 200,000 pilots will be needed in the next two decades.

The number of pilots required in the UAE and other GCC countries will increase by 75 per cent by 2020.

Speaking at the Middle East Aviation Summit in Abu Dhabi, A T Kearney associate director Bill McKnight said that the extraordinary growth of the airline industry has put a great strain on attracting and retaining qualified commercial pilots.

"Investments are in place to fuel industry growth in the Middle East, but the shortage of pilots is rapidly developing into a potential constraint on growth.

"The double-digit growth of passenger traffic in the past four years, and the expected delivery of 5,000 aircraft throughout the industry in the next five years means more flights, hence the need for more pilots," he said.
Mr McKnight says the looming pilot shortage could create opportunities in pilot training.

"A large number of pilots are reaching retirement age and the pool of pilots trained through the military is considerably smaller than it was 20 years ago," he said.

"The only solution is for airlines and flight training schools to forge partnerships that will result in a win-win situation for both parties."
In addition to training, Mr McKnight says the job conditions for pilots have changed dramatically in the past decade.

"Global air travel has generated high demand while the advent of low-cost carriers has put a strain pilot compensation packages," he said.
"Reducing the salaries and increasing pilot productivity takes a lot of glamour out of the job, particularly given the high cost of initial training."
The Middle East is predicted to be the fastest growing region for passenger traffic, with an average annual growth of seven to eight per cent between last year and 2015.

This surpasses the global average of five per cent, according to AT Kearney's estimates, with carriers in the Middle East recording an 18.1pc increase in passenger traffic last year.

Although these circumstances may not seriously affect the booming aviation industry in the Middle East yet, once the aircraft currently on order from the various GCC airlines are delivered, the region may be faced with a dire issue.

"The GCC must produce more local pilots to offset the challenges of recruiting expatriates to fill this gap," says A T Kearney Middle East director Maktoum Al Maktoum.

Additionally, as the global shortage worsens, it will become increasingly difficult to lure expatriate pilots away from their home countries where good flying jobs will be more widely available.

http://www.gulf-daily-news.com/Story.asp?Article=212512&Sn=BUSI&IssueID=31004

[411A]

"The GCC must produce more local pilots to offset the challenges of recruiting expatriates to fill this gap,"

'Tain't as easy as it sounds.
There is one airline in the middle east that is waaaay ahead in this respect, SaudiArabian.

It took 'em quite some time...since about 1948 or so.
EK/EY have a long road to follow.

[kingpost]

Don't worry, they'll just sit on the sideline and wait for some third world airline to go belly up then shake the tree!!

[7Q Off]

Right now there are more "first world" airlines near to go belly up than thirld world ones.
In the gulf you have lots of europeans and Aussies flying for money. They are thirld world too???? I dont think so.
If you are there, you all get paid the same. Everyone's there for money, first world, thirld world.

[qatarairways]

The GCC is facing a 'serious' shortage of pilots that could stunt growth in the region's booming aviation industry, a global management consultancy warned on Sunday.

by Amy Glass ([email protected]?subject=ArabianBusiness.com:%20GCC%20faci ng%20%27serious%27%20pilot%20shortage) on Sunday, 23 March 2008

A.T. Kearney said massive growth in passenger traffic, up 18.1% last year, was already placing a huge strain on regional airlines, struggling to recruit enough pilots, and predicted this would only get worse over time.

The consultancy said GCC passenger traffic was expected to grow up to 8% between 2007 and 2015, compared to a global average of 5%.

The number of pilots required in the UAE alone, which boasts five airlines and where tourism is a crucial part of the Gulf state's economic growth strategy, would shoot up 75% by 2020, A.T. Kearney said.

"Investments are in place to fuel industry growth in the Middle East, but the shortage of pilots is rapidly developing into a potential constraint on growth,” Bill McKnight, associate director with A.T. Kearney’s global airline practice, said in a statement.

Gulf airlines have placed huge aircraft orders over the last year as players such as Emirates, Etihad Airways, Qatar Airways and Gulf Air battle for domination of the skies.

Emirates, the largest customer for Airbus's A380 superjumbo, plans to take delivery of 246 planes worth more than $60 billion during the next few years, while Abu Dhabi-based Etihad plans to increase its fleet from 37 to 53 aircraft by 2011.

Qatar Airways expects to increase its fleet of 62 to 110 aircraft by 2013.

A.T. Kearney said the entire global aviation industry faced a pilot shortage in the coming years, but the Gulf was particularly at risk due to the lack of locally trained pilots.

The consultancy said that as the global shortage worsened, it would become increasingly difficult for Gulf carriers to attract expatriate pilots away from their home countries where opportunities would become more available.

The only solution was for airlines and flight training schools to forge partnerships, it said.

“The GCC must produce more local pilots to offset the challenges of recruiting expatriates to fill this gap,” said Maktoum Al Maktoum, director of A.T. Kearney Middle East.

Abu Dhabi-based Etihad Airways denied the industry was facing a crisis, but acknowledged demand for pilots was increasing worldwide.

Etihad told ArabianBusiness.com it was addressing the issue by establishing a cadet pilot programme for UAE nationals. The programme, which began in May, is currently training 40 Emiratis.

Emirates was not immediately available for comment.

[greendotspeed]

I say B.S. to that, they do not want to hire pilots with tuboprop time so what do you expect.

[sispanys ria]

Same answer. It's over 2 years I'm applying with over 3000 TT (but only turboprop), and still didn't find anything.

[SCATANA]

just out of interest which airlines in the gulf, other than GF, make Captains fly both seats and multi-type ?

[fo4ever]

EK does the same. A330/340 captains are now flying right seat as well as left seat.

[AA717driver]

They have the answer. Pilot pay and conditions have worsened, greatly aggravating the situation.

They just steadfastly refuse to do what is necessary to solve their problem. (Hint: hiring pilots with turboprop time isn't the answer!) TC

[411A]

(Hint: hiring pilots with turboprop time isn't the answer!

Not necessarily.
Yes, offering a better salary package will help, but having the ability in-house to train new First Officers, hired with 'only' turbopropellor flight experience would open up a huge potential.
What you need however, is professionals in the training department, something apparently severely lacking at a few ME airlines, it appears.

In addition, by hiring turboprop guys it would alleviate the potential for that new F/O clamoring for the LHS after only a couple of years....they would be quite happy with the RHS....IE: no spoiled brats.

[BIKKERDENNAH]

SOOO what you are saying 411 is that get em young n keen on turbo props and let em sit there for say 7 years until they have the right time for upgrade. No problem with that in essence BUT we need to have these guys in the LHS within 3 years. Training department here at EK is stretched to the max,do not have any flex or resources to accomodate the xtra training to get these guys on the line. So not really a viable option at the moment. Maybe in a few years when we have more stabilty in numbers and time to command moves towards 6 to 7 years!!

DEC well here we are playing with fire IF the money is not there what sort of DECs are we going to attract?
A320,A319 B737,B727 well we have hundreds of those guys on the books but they have barely left their own backyards when it comes to worldwide experience so i dont think so. Not to mention the morale issue which is at an alltime low at EK by employing DECs when they have very high qualified pilots waiting for their turn to be upgraded. Not that this morale issue is ever considered when EK pulls its next trick out of the proverbial HAT!!:{

What EK needs is to have thousands of suitably qualified FOs applying with good jet experience B737 NG above. Preferably international experience and can speak ENGLISH!!

How can this airline AGAIN have these sort of numbers in their application coffers instead of the drips n drabs and corporate guys they are getting now. And stop focussing on places where pilots are SOOOO desperate to leave and cannot speak English anyway!!

The answer is!!!!!:confused:

AHH yes have the competitive edge with Ts and Cs that is the only answer. That is it folks the ONLY ONLY ONLY answer. But who wants to start the bidding. Singapore? Cathay?Qatar?Etihad?British Airways,Virgin Atlantic,Korean,Jet Airways,Jetstar,qantas, Emirates. Its a minefield out there. But who has the biggest warchest!!:bored:

The answer is NOT ROADSHOWS,The Answer is NOT TEMPORARY ACCOMODATION,the answer is NOT increasing productivity to levels beyond the average mortal, the answer is NOT to erode Ts and Cs at a time when they can least afford to do so! The answer is NOT (well basically everything EK management is doing at the present time)!!

So EK needs to pay up or shut up!!:p

[Apache702]

Good one bikker :ok:

[tarik123]

2 years ago I said that experienced pilots will become very hard to find
and the only way to attract them is to pay more money.

Airline managers and directors are making much more than most of
their senior pilots, this was not the case 15 years ago.

For the last 20 years pilot's pay and benefits did not change much
and in some cases it is even less than what it used to be.

Airlines can always train new, low hours, inexperienced pilots,
but they need experienced people to do the job , again
if they do not improve the pay and benefits, they will not be able to keep
the experienced pilots that can do the job, and I am very sure that most
airline managers and directors can not help in this field.

The cost of living has increased dramatically, especially for people
working in the Middle East, of course the US Dollar devaluation is
adding to the problem.

Advice to every airline CEO, improve the pay and benefits of
your pilots, because the time will come that you will have to
ground airplanes and cancel flights due to the acute shortage
of pilots.

[A320PLT]

Tarik123 you speak the gospel!:D

A320PLT

[oldbag]

Pilot shortage-Just a thought

Airlines should loosen the grip on training to companies like Alteon, a subsidiary of Boeing for their Boeing aircraft training and CAE/Airbus for all their Airbuses requirements. This would release lots of highly paid TRE/TCE from simulator work and earn their living, flying & doing line training.

Alteon & CAE/Airbus could provide customer base training as long as their instructors follow the respective Airlines rules & procedures. For compliance airlines could have quality assurance pilots monitoring the contract instructors/checker.

As a matter of interest Korean Airlines have been on this program for nearly 9 years & later Asiana too. Alteon & Airbus (Korea) provides customer based Initial conversion, requalification, periodic training & checking to all the A/C types with KAL

There is a large source of retired experience pilots who are capable of doing this job. If you treat this group as another pilot with age restriction then you’re going nowhere. Just look at PPrune and you’ll see their inputs!

Oldbag

[410]

oldbag, I can only assume you're not a line captain who has to fly with the multicultural product of such 'remote' training schemes.

[fatbus]

EK is doing all Airbus transition training by a 3rd party, unable to do their own anymore, who knows when they will catch up, I think the munber was a additional 40k AED per pilot. They have used Alteon and did not care for the product.

[Wiley]

They have used Alteon and did not care for the product.Concur.

Not knocking the new FOs, but I think 99% of them would agree 100% with fatbus's comment. It's just that having done all their sim training with trainers who know nothing first hand about EK SOPS and procedures, they start their line training with little to no idea of what's expected of them, and the poor bloody training captains are given far too few sectors to squeeze a trained FO out the other end of the sausage machine. There's a huge difference between dealing with a monocultural group of trainees all from a very similar background to the incredible mix of nationalities and backgrounds EK employs today.

[oldbag]

Please read second paragraph..

Alteon & CAE/Airbus could provide customer base training as long as their instructors follow the respective Airlines rules & procedures. For compliance airlines could have quality assurance pilots monitoring the contract instructors/checker.

Happy flying.


Oldbag.

[EffohX]

But oldbag, if they did that, it wouldn't release lots of highly paid TRE/TCE from simulator work and earn their living, flying & doing line training.

[Gillegan]

It's just that having done all their sim training with trainers who know nothing first hand about EK SOPS and procedures, they start their line training with little to no idea of what's expected of them, and the poor bloody training captains are given far too few sectors to squeeze a trained FO out the other end of the sausage machine.

An interesting twist to this thread. As a trainer, I generally agree with the above comments but have to place at least some of the blame on EK. When they decided to employ the 3rd party trainers, they were too cheap to spend any time on standardizing them to EK standards. It was a full year after they showed up before they were given any specific EK training and very little time was spent actually supervising them.

Now, that said, it will always be more expensive to employ 3rd party training. The benefit is that you can use them in the peak times, thereby not having to carry a larger organization than you need for your average training load. In that case, it might make financial sense. In our case, it's probably more of a case of inadequate planning which in the long run will cost us more money.

EK definitely uses the model of finite resources. If they have to increase resources in one area (exorbitant spending on 3rd party training), they will decrease it in others (I'll leave you to to fill in that blank).