View Full Version : vesus Dollar and Pound

22nd Mar 2008, 10:18
A notable lack of British visitors to Spain ( at least to the corner where I live ) has been apparent. My wife has a market stall and as an indicator of British presence is fairly reliable.

It looks like the Eurozone is a bit too expensive for the British.

With the Pound and Dollar nearly on the floor perhaps being wholeheartedly European would not seem like a bad idea.

Personal debt in the UK being so high ( some Trillions or was it a Trillion at the last count) and with the housing market no longer being a good investment for foreigners what is left? Apparently the city of London financial markets were what earned Britain her money--what now?
Manufacturing being a dirty word, services seem a rather unnattractive investment.

No doubt there will be some disagreement with this.

tony draper
22nd Mar 2008, 10:22
One would sooner go back to a barter system or use beads salt and animal hides as a means of exchange than get closer to feckin EU.

Beatriz Fontana
22nd Mar 2008, 10:27
What comes around, goes around. Such is life in the global money markets. I can see a time when the dollar strengthens again (towards the end of the year, probably), and the Euro weakens against the pound. You just have to take the rough with the smooth.

I'll spend some Euros in Southern Spain in August if that helps... :)

22nd Mar 2008, 10:30
With the Pound and Dollar nearly on the floor perhaps being wholeheartedly European would not seem like a bad idea.

That's not really correct. It's the dollar that has been sinking relative to both the euro and pound. The pound and euro are both at record rates against the dollar (unless you go back many years).

22nd Mar 2008, 10:47
Unfortunately the Pound is also sinking. My overseas Sterling referenced salary paid in local currency is some 15% lower than a year ago. With no windfalls to drag it back up again, not a good outlook.

22nd Mar 2008, 11:08
Being in the EuroZone, you might think I'd be happy... but I have some shares of a US company, held in the US, in dollars. It's a good company that is well-placed to weather financial storms... but if the dollar crashes further, it won't do me any good unless I go and live in the USA. :(

22nd Mar 2008, 11:19
Quite correct when you say the pound is strong against the dollar, but look at the pound vs the and all it says is the pound and the dollar are sinking out of sight against the

I agree with "what goes around comes around" but the view that by the end of this year it will get better (the pound) I would bet you that that wont be the case this time round.

Mr Draper the "feckin" eurozone is doing so well because for instance, in Germany they produce goods that people all around the world want to buy.

The French produce food in quantity and Spain supplies a lot of the veggies that Tesco et al seem to want.

So all in all the Euro is winning (for the moment) hands down.

22nd Mar 2008, 11:26
One further item I would like to add, is although I am British ( and vaguely proud to be), I have always wondered why we seem to set so much store by the Pound Sterling.

For us poorer people it seems that the pound has the same value as the beads and trinkets to barter mentioned above.

Ive lived my life abroad since I was 17 and you can see that that is some time, and I have always viewed money ( whatever the currency ) as little better than the aforementioned beads and trinkets

22nd Mar 2008, 11:35
Grandaughter raided my Mum's Chinese Chest last weekend - found Dad's collection of Cowrie shells!!!

Should I retrieve them :hmm::D

PZU - Out of Africa

Was in France during the week and the weakness of the was noticeable - only Diesel and beer were cheaper than UK :{

22nd Mar 2008, 11:44
Their is a reasonable chance that the Euro will collapse sometime in the next 2 years, probably sooner than later.It will be triggered by the Italians with the help of the Spanish. The French in particular will be relieved and the Germans will hope to reinstate the mark..

22nd Mar 2008, 11:47
The weaker Pound vs Euro is also a good way to get rid of those funny foreigners that have flooded the UK recently. Being one of them, I can say that I'm saving up a lot less recently, when measured in real urrency....

It would all be OK, if I get my US visa soon....

22nd Mar 2008, 12:01
Lookin at the long-term bigger picture the Poms are doin
it right - keep the Quid and forget the bloodey Euro.

22nd Mar 2008, 12:38
Yeah, with Brown and Darling looking after your wallet how can anything possibly go wrong? :rolleyes:
Euro was 66p to the pound when introduced, now at 75p or there abouts, nice pay rise really.
So what is going to prop up the pound? Aforementioned muppets have sold the family silver, they are now trying to evict the non-doms who will doubtless take a few quid with them. The Arabs have bought most of the property worth owning and every man and his dog has overspent on his credit card.
I'll stick with the Euro ta very much.

Flap 5
22nd Mar 2008, 12:39
Not having the euro in Britain is nothing to do with 'it's good for all european countries to have the same currency for tourists and business' or even 'it's a much prettier currency' (!). It is all to do with interest rates. At present the rates are too high for Italy and too low for Germany (or is it the other way round?). Therefore the economies of both countries are suffering. Especially for Italy. Their economy is in some considerable trouble because they are unable to adjust their interest rate.

Therefore it is much better for Britain to keep the pound.

22nd Mar 2008, 13:20
...and with the housing market no longer being a good investment for foreigners what is left? I would suggest that the (Spanish) housing market is no longer a sound investment for the Spaniards in view of what is probably an even bigger bubble there, than what the UK housing market is currently going through. Also, the contribution of new housing construction in Spain as a percentage of national GDP over the last few years has been a magnitude greater than that of the UK or even the USA. Spain could be looking forward to a few very hard years...?!

And you've got all those millions of newly-legalised immigrants to look after now (those who were mainly there to work in the home construction boom) whilst it lasted...?! :(

22nd Mar 2008, 13:39
Think you'll find any falls in the Spanish housing market will affect the Brits, Germans and Irish more than the Spanish.

22nd Mar 2008, 14:16
I've never been so tempted to get an FAA licence, paying upfront, than I am now.

Track Coastal
22nd Mar 2008, 14:37
Their is a reasonable chance that the Euro will collapse sometime in the next 2 years, probably sooner than later.It will be triggered by the Italians with the help of the Spanish. The French in particular will be relieved and the Germans will hope to reinstate the mark..

And this is based on what economic analysis 1DC?

As peterpallet points out, the Germans make things that people buy around the world. I had my eye on a Jag in a year or two - an Indian owned Jag? I don't think so (no offence to India but their track record of automotive engineering is somewhat opaque). Oh well off to look at Audis and Beemers I reckon once I soon can get rid of a particular hole, I'm throwing money into.

French wine? Dutch Cheese? etc

As a pod the only thing you Brits manufacture thats exportable and marketable is ale (I like British ale). I also like British villages, the village pubs, British rugger/cricket matches and the countryside but I must visit for all that.

Paper money is just beads and trinkets for trade as someone pointed out. To claim some national one-up-manship because you haven't got the Euro is just nonsense and you continue to lose with regard to your continental cousins. But hey its YOUR currency on the slide as everyone turns to the Euros as THE currency now that Bernanke is making the greenback a peso.

PS I also want to get back on 2 wheels after a 7 year hiatus when I had a big bore for the 15 preceding. Test rode a couple of Triumphs, not even in the final list compared to BMW, Yamaha, Honda and Kawasaki IMHO (found Suzuki a bit dissappointing but better than Triumph).

22nd Mar 2008, 15:37
Yes I think that the will become THE currency in the years ahead prior to the Chinese taking it all over, perhaps not as far in the future as you may think.

With regard to the Spanish housing market, it will have an effect on the Brits, but for the Spanish themselves it can only be good as house prices start falling dramatically, bringing hope to first time buyers. Houses have been grossly overpriced here for some time. I have heard that the Spanish Construction Companies have seen this coming and have moved into other markets, for instance the UK and other new EU members. Remember they own BAA and practically the whole British fishing fleet, having taken advantage of the lax rules the UK has.

Its no use complaining about it and all power to their elbow.

Personally I survive on the UK pension (into which I paid all my working life) but how me and my wife do is a source of mystery to us both, my wife contributes with her market work and me--Well let that remain a mystery shrouded in an enigma (or whatever!!!!!!!!)

The UK pension for us both now reaches the dizzy heights of pounds 170
or approx 220 not a fortune but we manage very well, and most importantly are healthy and HAPPY.

Track Coastal
22nd Mar 2008, 16:00
On the subject - what exactly is iconically British and exportable (other than real Ale, Biscuits/Shortbreads, Jags, Triumph bikes and aircraft bits for EADS)? Something as an antepodean that is easily recognisable and buyable (the last caveat excudes Aston Martin, Bentley and Rolls Royce cars - a niche market)?

NB Hawker-Siddeley, British Aerospace, Rover, Leyland, MG, Triumph Cars etc etc - gone.

22nd Mar 2008, 16:26
A kiss me quick hat.

22nd Mar 2008, 16:28
...or a shell suit.

22nd Mar 2008, 16:36
How about an ASBO?

tony draper
22nd Mar 2008, 17:02
The way Ivan is throwing his weight around again you lot might be converting to the Ruble soon,cant see the cousins pulling you out the crap this time round.

22nd Mar 2008, 17:06
One of the biggest exports from Britain is whiskey.
Be interesting to see if Kevin can ruin the Oz dollar faster than his mate Gordon ruined the pound..

22nd Mar 2008, 17:32
One last thought.

If the people who support the pound found everything ok in the uk how come they do so much complaining about it on Jet Blast?

The latest is bin emptying, here in Spain we have daily collections of our bins and all done by Private contractors

A bit of a thread drift, but as the usual UK phrase puts it "there you go".
We py 60 per year for this, but have to take our rubbish to the bins.
Incidentally Spain is one of the best recyclers in Europe.

22nd Mar 2008, 18:07
"One of the biggest exports from Britain is whiskey."

Surely Britain imports whiskey, and exports whisky.:8

Pontius Navigator
22nd Mar 2008, 18:29
PeterPallet, we would jon you in a trice if we could afford to retain a home in UK too.

It would cost us the deposit on a house in Spain just paying estate agent's fees here. Then another leg paying the taxman when we buy a 'cheaper' house. The council tax would probably remain the same.

Then we can afford to drive the car to the airport as the cost of fuel is 30% higher, besides we are still saving to pay the heating and lighting bills.


Regardless of your pound in Spain buying less Euros in UK the same pound buys even less.

22nd Mar 2008, 20:57
any sign of europeans flocking to the UK legally to empty the shops with cash-this is a sure sign the euro is getting stronger.

23rd Mar 2008, 04:25
Not really, acmi, as most things in UK are still overpriced (compared to here anyway).

Now, IF the Euro ends up being worth more than the Pound, you may see people shopping. But since the pound is still stronger then it ain't worth it.

23rd Mar 2008, 06:18
The euro is on a rising zig in relation to most other currencies because a vast amount of oil wealth has migrated from dollars to euros as a result of politics and guesswork about future trends.

The run-up of the euro is a one-time thing that will, inevitably, be eventually accompanied by some degree of run-down. Anybody who knows exactly when this will happen please PM me with details. In the meantime, the "expensive" euro is decreasing business opportunity for export-oriented companies throughout the e-zone. Gradually this may well become a source of pain for the local economies that see declining export sales and growing competition by dollar-zone and yuan-zone companies. A high-price euro should help UK exports as well. If the situation persists, UK industry may increase employment and marketing in a serious way that could have longer-term positive effects.

A complex negotiation is underway globally about how oil will be priced in the future. Some fair portion of the financial writedowns blamed on "subprime mortgages" from the US likely really is a side result of the relative decline of the dollar, which makes dollar-denominated investments short-term losers, expecially for the high-leverage hedge investors. The OPEC group, egged on by Iran, welcome the new-found ability of the Euro to function as a reserve currency that is stable enough to "park" some of the immense cash surplusses that oil is now producing. The bloom will wear off this blessing sometime in the future as capital from oil euros begins sloshing around the world in gyrations, destabilizing the European economies to some degree.

The pound Stirling is a great asset. It may well rise above both euro and dollar when enough chaos filters into global money markets as a result of the ongoing oil situation (the recent currency trend experience is only round one of what will possibly be a full 12-round battle of economies lasting a decade or longer). Stirling will attract currency oil cash investment exactly because the UK economies are stable and set for structural growth, rather than poised to decline. Like most rockets, Asian economies will not perpetually go up in strength. The longer-term trend will continue positive, but with some frightening reverals along the way.

Watch the Swiss. Don't give up on the pound before they flee from the Sfr.

23rd Mar 2008, 08:59
The pound Stirling :=

A history of Sterling. (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/campaigns/eunion/cesterling.xml)

23rd Mar 2008, 09:45
Very interesting replies. ORAC , Track Coastal and PONTIUS NAVIGATOR have made the original point I raised somewhat stronger.
ORAC pointed to a very interesting article in the "Daily Telegraph" worth reading and I have some more to read within it.

The comment about the Iranians and the price of oil has a lot of validity. If it happens then watch the .

My original motive for starting this thread was to point out that Currency is little better than "beads and trinkets" and perhaps basing National pride on Currency has very little value.

We in Europe have a "bead and trinket" that was originally to be valued against the Dollar at 1.16, look at it now at 1.54 an increase of 33% and I can remember the laughter in the press when at first it sank well below its
proposed rate back in the early days of trading.

Of course it will make our products more expensive internationally, but the EU is a vast possible self sustaining market. ( A bit of wishful thinking there).

As someone wrote, He was going to look at Audis and Beemers, probably sums up what I (and others) have been saying rather well

23rd Mar 2008, 09:53
Flowman..You are correct.

TC.. read the collapse of the Euro story in a financial page on the net about six months ago, can't remember too much of the detail but it seemed plausible.

El Grifo
23rd Mar 2008, 11:12
With cast iron proof such as that 1DC, who would dare argue with your point :ugh:

The euro is clearly doomed

23rd Mar 2008, 12:26
Regretably, Sterling is not just weak against the Euro, it's actually weak against pretty well every other European currency, as well as the Yen, and several other far east currencies. The Swiss Franc is actually pretty well anchored to the Euro in terms of it's value.

In previous periods of weakness, this was good for British exports as it made our manufactured goods cheaper. Sadly, a certain Mrs Thatcher began what is virtually the terminal decline of UK manufacturing - so the weak pound, rather than having a positive effect upon the balance of payments, will probably be at best neutral, and possibly negative, since we have to buy pretty well all we sell from abroad, and much of it (apart from oil) not from the dollar area.

I can't help thinking that once the hoards of Brits have experienced the weak pound at first hand on their annual 2 weeks in Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece etc. support for the UK's adoption of the Euro may well rise - though for a pretty trivial reason.

23rd Mar 2008, 12:56
Given the current strength of the euro, could Gordon buy back all the gold he sold for euros with what he was paid?

Thought not.

23rd Mar 2008, 13:01
Changed my mind!:)

Track Coastal
23rd Mar 2008, 13:16
Since January 07, the Pound:
12.9% to the Aussie Dollar
15.6% to the Euro
18.1% to the Yen
12.5% to the the Canadian
11.1% to the Kiwi
7.8% to the Indian Rupee


1.2% to the USD

Surely Britain imports whiskey, and exports whisky
Forgot about the Single Malt, god bless Scotland!

23rd Mar 2008, 13:17
"Sadly, a certain Mrs Thatcher began what is virtually the terminal decline of UK manufacturing"

On the contrary, British manufacturing was already in decline by the time Thatch came along, largely thanks to the 1974 oil crisis and appalling industrial relations.
After 1980, manufacturing generally performed better than the trend until the late 90s. Once again the price of oil seems to have had more of an influence on the UK economy than anything else.
If anything, outsourcing to cheap foreign labour and increasing automation have more to do with declining manufacturing jobs than Mrs T.
If the economy is to be strong you have to sell more than you buy, be that from making stuff or from services. The UK is not doing that.

Off for a drive in the BMW now to spend some Euros.

Track Coastal
23rd Mar 2008, 14:35
From the maths above, its not that Brits are 'unique; you are just "wannabe American".

23rd Mar 2008, 15:11
'wannabe American'

Worked for us Irish. ;)

23rd Mar 2008, 20:41
Track Coastal:-

Go it in one! If we wanted to be, and behaved like Europeans - then our currency would be more likely to follow the Euro - but then if again, if we behaved like europeans we'ed already be using the Euro.

Fat chance of that happening - no matter which bunch of idiots were in power (leaving aside the Lib Dems, who, under our totally undemocratic, democratic system, will never get power!).