Nimrod MRA4 Programme at Risk?

[ORAC]

Shades of the AEW3 perhaps? Just a snippet from House of Commons Defence Select Committee report (mainly slagging Astute and the T45)

Taxpayers face £500m bill for BAE projects (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/engineering/article3267633.ece)

............The select committee also criticised delays on the Nimrod project, which has risen in cost from £2.8 billion to £3.5 billion and is running about six years behind schedule. The MPs have asked the MoD to review Nimrod and consider whether an alternative to the BAE-built aircraft could be bought...........

MOD Annual Report and Accounts 2006-07 (http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200708/cmselect/cmdfence/61/61.pdf)

Paragraph 57: ....The Autumn Performance Report also states that the “major programme showing cost growth at present continues to be Nimrod”....

Paragraph 60: .....On the cost increase on the Nimrod MRA4 aircraft programme, Mr Jeffrey said that it was “certainly giving rise to in-year pressure this year”. He told us that it was the “one significant area that we are having to attend to now”. We asked whether, given the problems on the Nimrod MRA4 programmes, consideration should be given to an alternative solution. Mr Jeffrey considered that “the current programme is seen as a more forward looking one than the question would imply”.....

[XV277]

Mmm, which alternative would that be? An as yet unflown P-8 or a refurbished 40 year old P-3?

Or start from scratch with another airframe?

[0497]

The MoD has to make a definite decision. They can't just keep dithering about then cancel or delay (don't worry 18 more mths .... 18 more mths) the MR4 at the last minute - wasted monies and the MR2 might not make it.

If it's P-8 (~2013/4), an interim aircraft might the way to go or, just reduce operations. However, the P-3 Orions aren't looking too flash either.

[Chicken Leg]

Nimrod MRA4 Programme at Risk

Thank God for that! Can we get some value for money now please? (Yes, I know the capability is needed, but the Comet isn't and neither is BAE!)

[Bob Viking]

Interesting to see what will be made of this in the commons.
Bearing in mind how many times successive S of S's for D trumpeted this as the wonderful replacement for the MR2 both before and after the Afghanistan accident. I'd love to see how they can wriggle out of getting the MRA4 operational.
It would appear this government will stop at nothing to save a few quid.
BV:mad:

[FATTER GATOR]

It will cost more in trade penalties for primary construction and service life support, to cancel the project than it would to put 8 MRA4's into service for 15 years.

All that money spent and nothing to show for it except another huge bill, scandal!!

In fairness to the select committee report (as mentioned) it showed a similar theme for Astute, Sentinel and Type 45. I wonder if any of them are going to be for the chop.

Of course the new carriers are safe, being built in GB's back garden.

FG sends:ok:

[Mad (Flt) Scientist]

... it showed a similar theme for Astute, Sentinel and Type 45...
Where does the Select Committee report mention Sentinel? I searched the second document in the first post and found no reference to it.

[Razor61]

Atleast the Sentinel is in service now...

P-8 Poseidon seems the logical way to go in regards to being a brand new airframe with ample spares available off standard B737.
Buy a few more and use them for replacements of the Nimrod R1 also.
Commonality between two variants as seen already with the Nimrod albeit less of a maintenance issue and a brand new start.

Or, it will go the same way as the Tankers, end up leasing said aircraft from an airline or consortium and being even more delayed.

[Lima Juliet]

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2007/12/17/220352/fatigue-risks-ground-39-us-navy-lockheed-p-3c-orions.html

Certainly don't want P3 aircraft - there as bad as MR2 at the moment, if not worse!

[Mr-AEO]

Whilst we're on it, what's occurring with ASTOR? Seems like another decent size project that Industry can't deliver:E

[doubledolphins]

B737 MMAs any one? Oh no, sorry ,only got two engines.

[dodgysootie]

Predator / Global hawk variant maybe? Just think of the savings that will be made on aircrew rations, flying pay etc....

[betty swallox]

Dodgy sootie...


tw@t

[Mad (Flt) Scientist]

Whilst we're on it, what's occurring with ASTOR? Seems like another decent size project that Industry can't deliver

If this (http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?F=3315321&C=europe) is to be believed - which is partly why I was interested in the Select Committee statement alluded to above - there is talk of deploying some of the ground element to Afghanistan to work with JSTARS. The critical path item being supposedly Bowman interoperability, for which a contract was only awarded last year it says. Hard to blame Raytheon etc. when essential elements of the system aren't ordered until 2 years after the original planned ISD!

To be honest, reading that summary it doesn't sound like there are any more significant technical hurdles, so maybe the end 08 ISD is actually going to be achieved?

[Shack37]

BS & 1.5 miles
Sense of humour failure??????????:*

[minigundiplomat]

MRA4?

Surely you are referring to Nimrod 2000?

[doubledolphins]

"Nimrod 2000" now known as "First Choice Nimrod". I'm sure some one will get that!

[tucumseh]

I'm sure we've all been misled. The article states;


"Mike Turner, BAE’s chief executive, said last year that all the company’s contracts had been brought back on time and on budget".


Surely that means all the MR4s were retrospectively delivered in 2000 and Broon got our £1Bn back? They spin a better tale than the MoD. I wonder who taught who?

I'm afraid RMPA/N2k/MR4 was at risk from day 1, precisely because they (MoD(PE) and RAF staffs) ignored the inescapable fact that the devil is ALWAYS in the detail. The notional ISD was always laughable and I never come across anyone who genuinely thought it would be before 2005. Ask yourself where the phrase "2000" first appeared. Was it when the radar was termed "Searchwater 2000". The airframe? Just a minor mod mate. The engineers in the project team, some of whom had worked on MR1 and MR2 with tools, not from an office, knew precisely what was needed, but as I've said before this was in a period when CDP was getting rid of such people and they were totally ignored. And the programme made the ludicrous assumption that the build standard had been maintained on MR2 which, as XV230 has shown, it was not - again a well known fact. This can cost an upgrade programme years and often makes replacement a better option (but no-one wants to admit this in an investment appraisal). It means there is an automatic funding shortfall of huge proportions and the tendency is to ignore it. But it always bites you. And on a hand built airframe like Nimrod, you don't have the usual TI > PI > routine conversion process; each tail number is an individual project. None of this is being wise after the event because the same risks were successfully mitigated on concurrent programmes under the same 2*. I'd like to see the original risk register, as I suspect a sanitised version was trotted out to spread the good news (which often precedes promotion). This was also a common practice under that regime.

[Mr-AEO]

To be honest, reading that summary it doesn't sound like there are any more significant technical hurdles, so maybe the end 08 ISD is actually going to be achieved?
I had thought that there were still some insurmountable problems with the radar? Hasn't there been a lot of trading between what was required and what can now be achieved? I heard rumour that Raytheon were about to walk...

[BEagle]

"Mike Turner, BAE’s chief executive, said last year that all the company’s contracts had been brought back on time and on budget".

Predictable self-justification! The words of Miss Mandy Rice-Davies spring to mind!*





*and no, I don't mean "Cor, Lord Astor, wot a little willy".

[Perivod]

The suffix 2000 was adopted as the forecast of how many days the project would be late. Sadly, even this has proved to be an underestimate! The cost of MMA would be a drop in the ocean in comparison to the cost per airframe of the MRA4

[getjpi]

Mmm, which alternative would that be? An as yet unflown P-8 or a refurbished 40 year old P-3?

Or start from scratch with another airframe?


Ask the nice gentlemen at Kawasaki Heavy Industries very nicely for a license to produce the P1

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kawasaki_P-1

[Ivan Rogov]

This looks like a good thing to do if you are building a combat aircraft

http://www.boeing.com/defense-space/military/p8a/news/2007/q4/071022a_nr.html

Did we do it for the MRA4?

[start_cx]

Why why why do we never learn about BAe? They are just one big cash-cow!!!!

Why we never let the Americans (with their mega-bucks) in on the project in the first place when were also looking for a P3 replacement is unbelievable.

[getsometimein]

Blame the people that poorly wrote the contract for MRA4 in the first place. The major cost implications are changes in the contract for which BAE charged the earth.

It would have been cheaper to go elsewhere, but for some reason the government wants to keep jobs in the UK (even though they could buy something else and give every MRA4 employee a million and still save cash).

[Biggus]

My knowledge of the programme is only based on what I have seen/read at a distance, so no doubt it has errors. But here are a couple of my impressions....

The MRA4 contract was decided in a year when 3 big military (aviation) contracts were let:

Nimrod MR2 replacement
C-130K replacement
Battlefield assault helicopter.

The C-130K replacement was a straight fight between A-400M and C-130J. BAe lobbied strongly for the A-400M, full page adverts in major newspapers, talk of loss of engineering skills in UK, etc. But it was never going to be ready in time, so C-130J was chosen. CONTRACT 1 to USA.

Battlefield assault helicopter was a straight fight between Apache and Eurocopter Tiger. Apache chosen. CONTRACT 2 to USA.

Nimrod replacement between MRA4 and a couple of US options (refurbished P-3s, P-7(?), new P-3s(??). So I think there was intense pressure on a UK government intent on preserving UK jobs to give one contract to a UK firm. CONTRACT 3 to UK (or was it??).

In terms of the MRA4 project being a UK deal, was it? The 'bending metal' bit went to UK, BAe, but with no prospect of generating any further income for UK plc. The clever bit, the mission system, was designed by a US firm (Lockheed I think), with the potential to be retro-fitted to MPA throughout the world, generating revenue for USA plc. Indeed I believe the mission system of the MRA4 forms the basis of that being installed in the US P-8 or whatever it is called.

As ever, I am more than willing to be corrected/informed by someone with more accurate knowledge!!!

[Henry_Harris]

Who could possibly have more accurate knowledge than you Biggus? It seems you are somewhat of a boffin on this subject. :D

[L Peacock]

I'm not a BAe-ophile but it strikes me there are obvious advantages to sourcing high value defence hardware from UK sources, where possible.
The income tax, NHI etc paid by the industry employees is recouped by the government; balance of payments/trade is boosted towards the black (particularly if there's export potential); obvious employment benefits; feel good factor in the constituencies involved; lots of intangibles.

However, once a decision to award a domestic contract has been taken, smart procurement really should kick in. It rarely does, though all the above can also apply to the subsequent overspend.

[Old Ned]

All the present :mad: government care about is votes. So, using the grossly bloated BAe Systems (operating in Labour areas) makes sense to them. Please don't think these twats give a flying :mad: about value for money, the best kit for the job or what do the end-users actually need. All they are bothered about is clinging to office.

Hands up all those who thought the MRA4 would be On Time, On Track and On Target! Hmmmmmmmmmmmm, not many hands up (get your grubby hand down Browne!)

There, I feel much better now!:)

Pip pip ON

PS. As for ASTOR, 5 Sqn have been flying from Waddo for some time bringing it up to speed.