Recession?

[BEagle]

With stock markets around the world panicking like a flock of old hens again, has any airline yet seen any tangible indication of a possible recession?

Or is this the usual short-termist alarm from the red-braced city boys?

Apologies if this is the wrong thread, but with so many new aircraft on order and, until now, an increasing demand for pilots, the effect of the fall in share prices on airline economy surely merits query?

[skiesfull]

Good question. Usually the pax loads dropping off indicate business is not so good. I notice that the BA 038 was less than half-full, but this time of the year is usually quiet for travelling. I suspect the stock-market 'games' will take a while to filter through. If the city boys are correct and recession is already with us, where will all the shiny new Airbusses and Boeings etc. be parked?

[Bluejet]

Actually airlines don't need to see any signs it simply takes a senior stock broking firm in London to post a 32 page report on why an airline is crap, value it's shares at zero and it will experience the effects of a full blown recession overnight. A good example of this is Silverjet. A clearer case of corporate sabotage I have yet to see, hope they ride it out.

[fireflybob]

Am not a pessimist by nature but anecdotally I would say things in the UK are not looking that good on the economic front.

I know January is traditionally a quiet month but I know of two big pubs in Nottingham which are closing (one in administration) and a similar story in Leicester.

Money is much tighter generally and it's going to be interesting to see how this affects the airline industry. Time to batten down the hatches I think.

[Kpt40]

It looks like the global markets have given the 150 billion dollar stimulas package of GW Bush a vote of no confidence.

In a few short hours we will see what the American markets think about it also. I think its a safe bet that we will see a terrible Tuesday in the US markets.

I believe that the EU markets have lost 120 billion USD in the last few days, which tells you the scope of this.-does a pretty good job of telling you how GWB's 150 b usd package is a drop in the bucket too.

Yes, batten down the hatches. This could get very ugly.

[towerview]

It is unlikley that the 150bn tax cuts will get through the Senate, so don't rely on that putting money in people's pockets.

[The SSK]

You can track the traffic and capacity trends for the Europan majors on the AEA website http://www.aea.be/research/traffic/index.html

Weekly (so-so accurate) is current up to the first week of Jan. Monthly (very accurate) up to November.

[angels]

Been tumultous in the City this morning. Sterling up and down like the old proverbials on a Saturday night.

This has all got a bit silly. The consensus view is that the U.S. is in recession right now. Anecdotal evidence from the British High Street also suggests a big slowdown here -- but not so much in the Euro zone.

That said, it isn't all doom and gloom. Spain's Air Europa has ordered 8 787s this morning, Rolls has got a big order from China Airlines for Trent XWB engines, Boeing has got an order for 5 738s to Jeju Air in S.Korea while EADS has announced its helicopter unit had record revenues and orders in 2007.

The world turns.

[Dani]

The numbers of aircraft orders doesn't reflect the economy but the outlook of their managers. As soon as the airline industry would go into a downturn, half of the airlines with new aircraft on order would never see them being delivered.

On the bright side I don't believe that we will go into a recesion and as soon as the credit crisis is settled, economy is going up again.

dani

[James 1077]

It will be interesting to see how the markets will react to the 3/4 pp cute in interest rates just announced by the Fed.

Will this be seen as a sign of panic or masterful financial prowess by helping to provide cheaper money so that people will carry on spending?

[brakedwell]

Oil is down $3 a barrel - that has to be helpful.

[WestofEMA]

And the orders keep coming.....What recession???

"Rolls-Royce confirms it has won a contract from Spanish airline Air Europa and Latin American carrier LAN Airlines SA, to supply Trent 1000 engines for new and leased Boeing 787 Dreamliner twinjets, as well as long-term TotalCare service agreements.
The aircraft engine manufacturer said that the Air Europa deal is worth 560 mln usd at list prices. The airline, wholly-owned by Grupo Globalia, has selected Trent 1000s to power its new fleet of eight firm orders of Boeing 787-8s, including the TotalCare package."

[twochai]

If anything, passenger yields are a more important indicator than loads in a recession. Does anybody have any accurate trends??