A lul in the job market?

[Captain Planet]

I've heard numerous rumours about pilot recruitment slowing down.
Is this true or just another rumour?
Does anybody care to enlighten me?

CP.

[captjns]

Check with various recruiters... even in the changing headers of this website

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Lull before the storm.

WWW

[RVR800]

http://www.newsweek.com/id/78116

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Meanwhile:


Reuters: UK Q3 current account gap hits record high

http://uk.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUKL2025673120071220


The Guardian: Black hole in Britain's public finances deepens

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2007/dec/20/economics.housingmarket


The Times: Mortgages slump as repossessions set to surge

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/construction_and_property/article3077333.ece


Firstrung: Woolwich restricts lending to 65% on buy to let new build

http://firstrung.co.uk/articles.asp?pageid=NEWS&articlekey=8701&cat=44-0-0


FT.com: Bear ends year with $1.9bn credit writedown reports first quarterly loss in 84 years

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5f7d861c-af02-11dc-880f-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1



Thats the amount of links from todays news that I can find in 2 minutes that all point to a recession and a financial crisis and a house price crash.

The really scary figures are here:

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/m4/current/index.htm


And in particular this table


http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/m4/2007/nov/TABLEA.GIF



You probably don't know what the M4 Broad Money Supply is and why you should be alarmed that its growth rate fell from 20.8 to 14.4 to 2.8 to 1.3 between August and Nov.

Let me assure you that it is A Very Bad Thing for the UK economy. Think of it as the money tap. It just got turned off.


Severe turbulence ahead, seat belts on, cabin crew take your seats immediately.

WWW :(

[jamestkirk]

Merry christmas optimists! :):):)

[Grey'npointy]

Take a look around guys. Various mergers between the charter operators, now looking to cut costs. That means longer times to command as fleets rationalise, with the knock-on of reduced intake requirements. Virgin has been hit financially by its operation in Nigeria and is slowing recruitment down. There is still plenty of work about, so long as you don't mind going to live in India, the Far East or Australia. As for the UK market, though, all of the big boys are feeling the pinch.

[Mad old uncle Nigel]

This is late 1989. Next year is 1990. BMI Baby will go bust, or it may be globe spanner or Jet 2 somewhere or one of the other here today, fire truck chain to the nosegear, gone tomorrow airlines. I wouldn't be suprised to see the demise of at least two big UK airlines next year.

None have a viable business plan beyond the fig leaf of the 787 saving both their company and their job.

It won't.

Nige.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

There is big trouble ahead. The pound is falling and its going to have to fall a lot further and this is going to make oil much more expensive and THAT is going to hurt the airlines badly.

The UK current account deficit almost doubled in the third quarter to £20bn. As well as being the biggest deficit ever in cash terms, at 5.7pc of gross domestic product it is now comparatively even bigger than the deficit in the US, and equals the worst-ever shortfalls in the past half-century, recorded in the 1980s.

The domestic saving ratio, which measures how much of their incomes people are setting aside for the future, remained deeply in negative territory. At minus 1pc, it means families are borrowing in order to fund their everyday lifestyles. Thisly unusual situation replicated in the late 1980s, before the last property crash..

The amount families and businesses are having to set aside for mortgage and debt payments hit the highest level since the early 1990s, in the latest sign that the record mountain of UK lending is causing serious pain. The household debt service burden rose to 13.6pc of income - the highest level since 1991, while the equivalent measure for non-financial businesses hit 28.8pc of their profits - the highest since 1992.

The Government's finances dipped even deeper into the red, as the Chancellor suffered a record shortfall on his budget in November. The ONS said public-sector net borrowing was £11.2bn - the biggest since comparable records began in 1993. It brings the total lending so far this financial year to £36.2bn, and raising the likelihood that Chancellor Alistair Darling will overshoot his £38bn forecast this year.

It will take quite some time for this mess to show up in headlines about airlines with obvious implications for Wannabes.

But be in no doubt that the UK economy is in dire straits. A recession is a real possibility (I think certainty) in 2008. And as a result the pilot job market will be very bad.

It was boom in 2007 and it may be bust in 2008. I know it seems to quick and massive a turnaround but that's exactly how it happened in 1989/1990.


WWW

[Superpilot]

WWW,
Didn't you get hired during a "lul"?

A few thoughts from an armchair economist...

Just by saying it will happen (a few thousand times), the mejia, financiers (particularly the big evil bastard type who will no doubt capitalise on it) and the gummint' have the power to invoke a recession. And for that reason I too now think it's inevitable because one is kind of overdue. It would be in the interests of this country to get one out of the way sooner :\

House price wise, the loss from 1990-1995 was about 40%. I don't think that kind of price crash can happen again in a country where there is an epidemic shortage of housing. Where I live, the Olympics are still yet to pass and Cross Rail to come (factors that are going to increase if not stabilise house prices for years).

For pilot recruitment, yes one or two airlines are likely to start shedding pilots but recruitment is not about to come to a sudden stop! So there should still be opportunities for the best wannabes.

But yes, this is going to hurt some. It's going to hurt those that have put their everything into flying (education, time and money) and have nothing left, not even a backup career path. See how fragile this career is???

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

No, I got hired Christmas 2000 which was a boom time that 9 months later (Sept 12th) turned into a bust as various airlines went but.

A 40% correction is precisely what I expect to happen to house prices over the next 3 years. Mostly in nominal terms but some of it will be as a result of inflation which I expect to be high.

There is no shortage of housing as evidenced by the empty houses that the large builders cannot sell and the 1000's of empty flats in every city centre of the UK which are in the same condition, empty and for sale.

One UK or EU airline goes bust and suddenly you have hundreds of recent, type rated experienced pilots all available tomorrow. Hiring just stops. Hell, following Sept 11th Airtours and Aer Lingus just binned their cadets UNLESS they had got past the final line check. Cadets with the CPL/IR + type rating and under line training were "let go" after the airline had spent in some cases £100k on them.

WWW

[BitMoreRightRudder]

But yes, this is going to hurt some. It's going to hurt those that have put their everything into flying (education, time and money) and have nothing left, not even a backup career path. See how fragile this career is???

Absolutely. It really does seem fragile right now. Th Wannabes forum has always preached the importance of a back-up plan; to go into ATPL training in the coming year without any escape strategy should the worst happen would be complete financial suicide.

Over the past couple of years we've seen people getting away with placing all their eggs in one basket and blowing 80K on a quick integrated zero to hero course ala Oxford and making it straight into a shiny jet with absolutely no prior commercial experience. Many of us think that is about to change, and in fact to an extent, it already has.

Borrowing thousands of pounds that you simply have no way of paying back, should you fail to find a job on completion of training is a gamble at the best of times. Right now is not the best of times. Some will see all this as downright pessimism no doubt, but there are many of us who just see it as an economic reality. Too many people living beyond their means on borrowed time. Read the FT, read the finance section of any decent broadsheet and see what the city analysts are saying. If people are dead set on training they will do it anyway, but they need to be aware that next year could be an interesting time for our industry.

[boogie-nicey]

Most ceratinly an interesting thread for sure along with contributions from sound individuals. However it does strike me that the commentary offered does appear to be somewhat localised rather than reflective of anything outside of North-West Europe. With aviation being an inheritantly international business shouldn't we be more inclined to confine such UK economic news to say ... the UK. I can accept that globally speaking the UK still has a presence and no doubt what happens here at home will have some effect on issues further afield. Nevertheless how would the UK's nightmare cause ripples significant enough to disrupt airline activity in for example the Middle East and Asia. After all this beast better known as aviation does differ from the economics of the local sandwich shop, courier company, council worker (not my favourite :mad:) or mobile phone shop. Therefore if things are a little dry at home perhaps it's good time or even great opportunity to go further afield where you might not have otherwise have tread and see pastures new.

I agree without hesitation that the UK economy was dying on it's feet sometime ago but like any incompetent person Nu Labour put their efforts into covering up rather than the messier option of acknowledging their mistakes and thus dealing with some of this earlier. The other problem lies with the band of soppy media journalists who wish to avert their gaze from this impending disaster until they're forced to report on the chaos once it takes hold. The UK electorate wasn't concerned with the economy in the last few elections merely the 'feel good factor' so I doubt they'll be pushing the government to make amends or put us back on a sure footing instead they'll accept the same old sugar coated gestures that just allows some of the easier problems to be addressed and remainder to swept back under carpet as always.

As WWW states we are in real trouble the waters aren't just troubled the waves are now constant and each one is really rocking our boat, can we hold on without capsizing, I think so.... But the battering is going to be fierce and some will fall overboard during the process. Therefore I'm in no denial about the gravity of what's happening and the true nature and ferocity of the hardship just around the corner but my question is simply how long will this storm last. Listening to numerous voices on this issue leads to, you guessed it numerous opinions and thus I can't really determine how long I should batten down the hatches for. Could we see some recovery (I refere to that in the lightest of terminologies) by late 2008 or that too optimistic?

M

[Superpilot]

There is no shortage of housing as evidenced by the empty houses that the large builders cannot sell and the 1000's of empty flats in every city centre of the UK which are in the same condition, empty and for sale.

WWW, sure there's thousands of empty houses in the odd isolated nothing-much-happening-here town but there is always going to be a shortage of property in those places where people WANT TO live and where they HAVE TO work. Our capital being just one of those places.

And the comment about 1000's of empty flats in every city centre. If you take that to be a net figure over a year, then that could be put down to people moving to/fro different properties and a temporary situation. You're never going to get every single property in this country occupied, primarily because of unsuitability.

[trainee99]

The most recent rumour I've heard is that whilst ezy are only recruiting a tiny number this year - of the order 50-100, there are plans afoot for a very large recruitment drive next year - of the order of 500-600 pilots.. As always subject to change I suppose, especially with the current economic conditions and the traditional volatility of this sector. Just what I heard!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

500 - 600 pilots at EZY for 2009 you mean?

Cor, that would mean bringing 120 extra aircraft to the fleet which currently stands at 140... So I don't think so somehow.

Sorry.

WWW

[trainee99]

Maybe I've got something wrong here, but in 2007 ezy recruited 450 pilots without the addition of 90 aircraft - based on the crew factor of 5, so I'm not sure you can say that it is impossible, bearing in mind that the rate of fleet expansion is pretty constant and rapid. Your numbers presumably assume that nobody ever leaves, loses their license or gets promoted within the company. This was based on a recent conversation with a trainer, so whilst the numbers are probably pretty speculative and sketchy, the implication is that a large recruitment is planned for 2009 as opposed to 2008's meagre drive - really, that's the important message to anyone who's interested in applying for a job, not the exact numbers.

[midnight cruiser]

Will you give it a rest, www. Figures you are quoting are from analysts on the outliers eg -40% for house prices in 3 years (which of course tabloids seize on) - the concensus is far less severe. Equally M4 supply has been hit by an exceptional divergence of the LIBOR from base rates - which is predicted to re-converge somewhat next year, as banks and other asset holders regain confidence to loosen their purse strings in the wake of Northern Rock - The LIBOR/EURIBOR - base rate gap is unsustainable in the long run. Unemployment will remain very low and I do not agree that inflation will rise significantly. So many of the fundamentals are sound compared to previous recessions, but you are selectively emphasising the worst bear points.

Aircraft deliveries are at a record high, and particularly high with biz jets; the correlation between number of a/c and pilots being obvious. There will also still be strong economic growth in developing countries, and strong growth in their air transport sectors.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I agree there is a counter view - thanks for sharing it with wannabes.

40% house price falls are easily achieveable and would be a repeat of 1991 - 1994. Nominal falls of 25% (the actual number you see after the £ of the asking price) plus no increases (falls instead) for 3 years times 5% inflation over those years = 15% + 25% = Real Terms 40% fall in values of UK property.

It would only be taking us back to 2002 which ain't that long ago.

As for the world of Banks and high finance. You've got M Lynch going begging to the Far East you've got Barclays suing Bear Sterns who made their first loss for 80 odd years. Meanwhile Goldman is making a fortune betting against the market it was selling to the public and now the monoliners are in trouble along with the ratings agencies. One UK bank which sold 20% of all mortgages in the first half of 2007 has gone bust and plenty others are swimming without their shorts on (yes Bradford & Bingley I meant you). The ECB are pumping 500 Billion euros - yes, ten Trident strategic missile defence systems in cheap cash to get the EU banks over year end. Recession in the US and UK is a serious proposition according to most commentators. The Dollar dived off a cliff and the Pound is parking up at Beachy Head as we speak. Inflation is rife and the Western economies are in big trouble and they know it.

I agree there will be plenty of jobs in Asia and the BRIC countries.

Not much cheer for the British or EU Wannabe there and this is the bulk of the audience here.

Merry Christmas

WWW

[assymetricdrift]

My good friend is an Economist and he also points to this very bleak picture that is forthcoming. At some stage in the next 3 or 4 years, there is going to be a major economic crisis.

I am going to agree with WWW - there are going to be major implications across the board for all airlines out there. Effectively, I would reckon that only the established majors and strong Low Cost Carriers (Ryanair and easyJet) are going to survive.

In terms of optimism, the latter part of this year has shown that the year of consolidation across the industry has had an impact on the Low Houred pilot market. If you check the monthly employment statistics from say, Oxford, from January and then see how it has dramatically declines across the course of the year, then you will see this. At the moment, there are only a select number of airlines that are recruiting and the traditional boom which occurs early in the year, isn't looking too promising at all.

Yes, we are entering a lull and a period of economic recession. And it is going to get a lot of worse before it gets better.

I don't want to be pessimistic, but if there was ever a time for getting a back up plan in place (eg, a Uni Degree in a totally different subject to Aviation), I would strongly consider it now.

[G-SPOTs Lost]

www

reading your post made me initially think you were overreacting, but then I distinctly remember reading one of your posts many years ago on this forum when you accurately forecast GWII way before George W knew what was going on.

Wannabees shoot now or keep your powder dry.

Time to consider looking at the Netjets corner of the industry, nearly all bizjet production lines sold out for three years. Admittedly as are the 737/A320 lines, the difference being Hign Net Worth Individuals are a little more hardy to a financial melt down than new start airlines and lease companies.

Regards

[Dreamshiner]

The issue is as I can see it:

UK aviation market consolodated in 2007 with the mergers and takeovers.

Reluctance by the majority of airlines to bite the bullet with line training, despite a wealth of fATPL holders out there.

A desire by airlines to beg, borrow or steal experienced pilots from one another rather than gain loyalty by giving people their first break.

The economy is slowing, Iraq was done to ensure China didn't get access to their oil in addition to the Iranians and ensure we had a cheap supply. With petrol hitting £1 a litre from 75p ish when the war started, its safe to say it hasn't really worked out ideally.

Housing is slowing, usually the early barometer of how things will pan out.

[assymetricdrift]

I can also actually more of a swing towards the Mentored Schemes which are used at the FTOs - by Netjets, FlyBE, Thomas Cook, Excel, amongst many others.

I do believe that honestly, these will in the future provide the best chance of employment for wannabes in the low houred market, and forsee that there will be significant growth towards these schemes in the forthcoming few years. They mean less risk to the airlines, and at the same time mean that only the cadets who reach the standards needed for employment with the airlines get through.

[Tony Hirst]

I would have thought that mentored schemes are aligned with the strategic direction of an organisation and that probably means being in alignment with forecast retirements and planned fleet expansion.

They probably are not a very good way of dealing with general capacity shortfall which seems to be what has been experienced for the last couple of years. However, when an over capacity is realised so the projections are changed and so the aircraft order options are reduced and 'in-flight' mentored students chopped.

I don't see mentored schemes as a replacement for more 'ad-hoc' recruitment. Probably the case that both are essential for smoothing resource requirements.

[Rhodes13]

Isn't someone missing something here? If we do head for a recession won't the first companies to be affected be NETJETS. It stands to reason that if companies start needing to tighten their belts for the turmoil ahead discretionary travel on the likes of NETJETS would be the first to go?

How could a company justify paying the exorbitant prices albeit for convenience of NETEJTS when the likes of the locos etc get you there for a hell of a lot cheaper? I'm sure NETJETS has an option to defer deliveries much like AA did with their 737's during 9/11.

WWW stands as a voice of reason during these insane times where people are dropping a 100K just to get a job and with basically nothing to show for it! I would wake up with cold sweats during the night if I had that amount of debt hanging around my neck!

Unfortunately many people here won't listen as they are lured by the prospect of flying a shiny jet and get sold all the garbage from your big players like OAT etc, but don’t take the time to research the what if scenario.

WWW keep it up. Some people are living with their heads in the sand!

[Tony Hirst]

Hmmm, could be the other way around. Netjets is born from the idea that a company jet is unnecessary excess. Even for a charter, getting six members of staff to a location and back in a day in a biz jet/tp is probably not that much more in cost than than mileage, parking, loco, hotel, meals, etc...probably more productive/efficient too.

As short haul travel is relatively cheap compared to the options and possibly considered more a utility than a luxury by many these days, I don't see the doom and gloom just yet. No doubt things will slow, but I'm not sure about a significant reversal.

[redsnail]

I believe that there will be some belt tightening in the industry over the short term (namely a couple of years) but overall, the trend is upwards. The industry is cyclical and if you're low on hours then it might be a bit of a struggle if you're restricting your options to jet FO only.

Always keep a weather eye on what's happening in the US and in Asia. Right now, flights are being cancelled because of not enough experienced pilots. However, their economy is slowing down. The building trade is definitely feeling the effects of the sub prime crash. Would I go full time now without the benefit of some sort of scheme, no. Would I commence a modular course while keeping a full time job? Yes.

At Flight Safety International in the States, the centre I'm at has no spare slots available for initial courses on the Hawker 800 XP for next year (2009). All slots sold already. The sim (Collins) is "flying" nearly 22 hours a day/7 days a week.
The people that fly on a Netjets or the like bizjet won't travel on a loco. Price is just one part of the equation. Will the market slow down? Possibly. No sign of it yet though. I think we're not far off the 1,000 pilot mark.

[timzsta]

Speak for yourself. My Career development loan repayments finish in 8 days time. My flying club has not had so many students for years and it has never had so few Instructors. I am going part time in my other job in the new year to do more flying.

The one thing that is different about the industry since the last big slump is that as we face recession this is the first time we have had "low cost". Lets all make a christmas wish things wont be so bad this time around.

[BitMoreRightRudder]

assymetricdrift

I do believe that honestly, these will in the future provide the best chance of employment for wannabes in the low houred market......They mean less risk to the airlines

They provide the best chance of a low-hour job now, never mind in the future. And the least risk for an airline is to hire a pilot with a TR and experience on type. If we see a recession the weaker airlines will shed pilots and some may even go bust. That would mean the few airlines (if any) who may still want to recruit would be able to pick from all those experienced and current jet/TP pilots who all of a sudden are desperately seeking employment.

The mentored schemes are good news during times of peak airline hiring, such as the last few years, but they will be amongst the first things to go should the economy hit the buffers.