Airlines - The Future

[Scumfish]

With all of the expansion that has been happening and is planned by airlines, one has to ask themselves just how long can this continue? The economy and thus, the way airlines perform have their peaks and troughs. At the moment we are approaching the peak in both. Next year, I believe that the economy will slow. We are starting to see higher interest rates, increased fuel costs and inflation is rising ie. a higher cost of living. With this naturally comes reduced spending powers. How far this will go is anyone's guess. However, in a worst case scenario, it will be both Jetstar and Tiger that will suffer more as a lot of their clientel are those who have never ventured further than a five kilometre radius of the nearest centre link office or those with a tight budget. Discretionary spending by business will decline and Qantas and Virgin Blue will suffer to a degree. The BIG question though is fuel prices. Just how much can airlines - or more to the point, the consumer, sustain increased fuel costs before something gives?
The airlines also complain about lack of pilots yet anyone with the ability to become one these days realises that it is not the viable option that it once was. Son number one, who has a private licence, has decided to pursue a trade (electrician). He sad, "Dad I'll be able to earn more than a pilot, be home every night and not have to be subjected to checks and medical requirements." Airlines should not be charging for endorsements. Maybe they could attract more candidates? How much will the pilot shortage impact on the economy? Cancelled flights and reduced tourism - lost revenue. Certainly pilots pay for their initial training as do other professionals such as lawyers and doctors but it really is a bit rich for an employer to expect an employee to fork out tens of thousands of dollars to work for them. Until airlines lift their conditions there will be a shortage.
I feel that within five years time, the industry will stagnate. The major reason will be the cost of fuel and there will be quite high environmental taxes charged on airline tickets further dissuading air travel.

[Capt Kremin]

A Cathay mate of mine who was caught up in 89, went back to the air-force, then went to HKG just had his number one son graduate from Uni. He has his father's brains and if he has half of his father's flying ability he would have made a superb pilot.

He just started with Mac Bank. Says it all really. Flying no longer attracts the best and brightest of todays young. They have seen the degradation of the profession by airline managements over the last 25 years and quite rightly want no part of it.

Managements haven't learnt this fact of life yet. They will though... they will.

[Air Ace]

Kremin

Since time immemorial the kids of pilots have become everything from Brain Surgeons to dole bludgers.

And the kids of wharfies to politicians have become airline pilots.

Of my kids, two could not get real jobs - one is a pilot in Australia, one a trolley dolley overseas. :}

That is the career they chose - that is one's right in this lucky country. I'm sure your mate's son made the decision that suits him. I don't believe an ability to fly and an affinity to an airline career is necessarily genetic.

And the point of your post is.........???

[Metro Boy]

Maybe this is his point "He just started with Mac Bank. Says it all really. Flying no longer attracts the best and brightest of todays young. They have seen the degradation of the profession by airline managements over the last 25 years and quite rightly want no part of it."
(I have no idea how you do the copy thing)

(I do! :} Tail Wheel)

[AnQrKa]

Kremin,

"They have seen the degradation of the profession by airline managements over the last 25 years and quite rightly want no part of it."

Crap. Most are selecting alternative professions owing to the huge increase in pilot training cost. I commenced flying training 21 years ago when the relative cost of a CPL was much lower than today. Governing body corporatization, fuel, insurance, air nav charges have all a part to play in todays shortage of pilots.

The salary levels of VB pilots is not that far removed from those of QF shorthaul or the old Ansett.

When I learnt to fly, not a single mate of mine would have knocked back the prospect of one day flying a 737 for 180000 bux instead of 200000 plus bux.

And BTW, what was happening 25 years ago that signaled the degradation of the airline profession. 20 hours a month while running your horse stud full time was proving too diff

[Air Ace]

AnQrKa. :ok: :D

Time to move into the 21st Century!

Those that want to become bankers, will.

Those that want to become airline pilots, will.

Opportunities for today's youth have never been better! :ok: Good luck to then, they are Australia's future.

[Gnadenburg]

The salary levels of VB pilots is not that far removed from those of QF shorthaul or the old Ansett.

A strange position.

Adjusted for inflation and including super and DTA, the short haul wage of incumbant F/O's at QF & Ansett seven years ago, exceeds that of a Virgin Blue captain today.

My last full year at Ansett I made 135K. Plus about 10K DTA. Plus the Super.

Pushing a 160K package.

I had other perks too. Including crew meals and refreshments! :}

[priapism]

The exhaustion of supply of fossil fuels will destroy the commercial aviation industry.

[freddyKrueger]

Looking only at the 'human resources' element. I've said it before, and I'll say it again:

...
Newbies
This is where it get interesting. There is no one defined career path & support in aviation, unlike many other professions.
Look at the law, medicine, accounting, engineering, there is support through training loans (HECS, government acts as lender of last resort), graduate training (internship) & final certification.

For the non-military pilot, lets look at the available support. UPFRONT cost $60,000+. No discount, no commercial loan, no government assistance.
A CPL is rarely viewed outside the industry as a qualification of any value to a potential employer.
Then what, head somewhere remote to earn $30,000+ pa for a couple of years, maybe paying another $10,000~ $20,000 (Endorsements & IR) along the way for more training.
Then if everything goes right, a jet job comes up, pay another $30,000 to earn $70,000, then you end up in category one.
Not only that, generally speaking the window of opportunity to enter the industry is closed by the time you are about 23 (exceptions as always), as other pressures diminish the ability to have the selfish life that flying training & the first job demands.
So in the current climate of skills shortages, Gen Y have a huge range of choices if they commit to some training. Apprentices earn as they go, university graduates can defer HECS to have a lifestyle, then work OS for a while before returning.
I am sure many school leavers who consider aviation look at the upfront costs, the risk of actually achieving their goal & the T&C that they can expect (VB/J* - QF is now the A-scale and closed to newbies) and decide that it just isn't worth it.
The demographics of the workforce dictate that soon the retirement rate will exceed the entry rate, aviation is no exception.
So after all that, training costs have increased sharply, whilst T&C have declined. Compared to what else is on offer to Gen Y, it appears unwilling to take the huge risk & diminishing rewards that an aviation career represents.
Once upon ago, aviation was a well paid job compared to almost all others, today this is just not the case, there are many jobs that exceed aviation. macquarie bank has 10,000 employees on an AVERAGE renumeration of $360,000.
In the end, whatever we say or think or argue is irrelevant, it is those willing (or unwilling) that will decide the future of aviation in Oz. The large operators need to provide some certainty BEFORE newbies commit the $100,000, and improve T&C's. Yet I see just the opposite.
If operators want to maintain the status quo or expand, they will need to address this issue..
The real question is can they afford not to improve T&C's. Gen Y has a choice, & they will decide the future of the industry.

Source (http://www.pprune.org/forums/showpost.php?p=3311545&postcount=272)

In the end this is the real gottcha for the operators
In the end, whatever we say or think or argue is irrelevant, it is those willing (or unwilling) that will decide the future of aviation in Oz. The large operators need to provide some certainty BEFORE newbies commit the $100,000, and improve T&C's. Yet I see just the opposite.
If operators want to maintain the status quo or expand, they will need to address this issue..
The real question is can they afford not to improve T&C's. Gen Y has a choice, & they will decide the future of the industry.Think about it, the operators are hostage to those that are not even in the industry! What WE think is IRRELEVANT, it what the next generation think is a fair & reasonable return on THEIR risk & effort will determine the growth potential for the industry.

[Frank Burden]

I vote for doom and gloom. Airline management, fuel prices, financial capacity of the low cost carrier customers to afford air fares under Labor, this young generation not being as good as us, etc, etc.

Or maybe, we are just all boring old lound lizards! We will all be scintillating conversationalists sitting in our wheel chair in the old folks home.:uhoh:

[fmcinop]

You may wish to re-check you VB Captains salary. In the 6 months from June I have earnt $105,265.00 excluding super. The current projection for the entire financial year will be over $200,000. This includes overtime etc. If you include super on top of that at 9% of the entire amount excluding allowances, that look a hell of a lot more than what Ansett were on.

[Lodown]

And as we are all well aware, pilots as a group (like doctors) have an impeccable history in predicting the economic future of the world. The gains in the stockmarket due to self-informed investment prove it.

[B A Lert]

Kremin wrote

Flying no longer attracts the best and brightest of todays young

What a stupid comment to make. Does this imply that all of the professions were populated by dullards while all of the 'bright' people turned to aviation?

Is Kremin really a w@nker? :rolleyes:

[Tankengine]

Whoohoo fmcinop!
Sorry but still $50k or so shy of QF so you need to try harder!!:E

[Capt Kremin]

Lert, not at all. My point was that this boy in years gone by would probably have been attracted to the job like his father was. But as others have pointed out, the prohibitive start-up costs of the job, low start-up salary compared to the one he is about to receive and the downside of the pilots lifestyle, means that he and others like him no longer have piloting on their career radars.

As for attracting the best and brightest, piloting used to attract its fair share of them. Not any more. Your little jibe at me simply means you have no grasp of semantics.

[fmcinop]

Tankengine I think you need to look at the facts. This is all under CAO48. Max flying 8 hour, max duty 11 rostered. The most I have done in 7 years with VB is 750 hour. A qantas captain does not earn over $200,000 plus super doing only 750 hours. If I were doing 900 then I would be earning a hell of a lot more.
I don't do Brisbane perth return under CAO 48 or many of the other long duties that qantas are able to do. I look at the roster for the qantas guy up the road and shudder at some of the flights they do. Lets comape apples with apples.

[Keg]

If you include super on top of that at 9% of the entire amount excluding allowances, that look a hell of a lot more than what Ansett were on.

Fair enough then. I always thought that DJ terms and conditions set the industry back about a decade or so. In reality it's probably closer to seven years! You're absolutely right. :ugh:

At least they're heading in the right direction now! :ok:

[Tankengine]

About 650 hrs, but in 9 months as I had 3 months leave. New EBA gives small rise [3%] but possible 6% bonus + more than 9% super. [apples?]:rolleyes:

[Over and gout]

The exhaustion of supply of fossil fuels will destroy the commercial aviation industry.

I could not agree more:{

[vans]

Some of you guys need to lighten up a bit. It’s the festive season! In all the years I’ve been reading Prune, I’ve never seen anybody with a position on this forum having his mind changed by somebody else with an opposing position. What I have seen though, is a bunch of angry people trying to shout each other down, the end result being that nothing changes! Relax about the salaries. Who cares if Virgin pays more or less than Ansett did – if you are not happy with your lot then do something about it, but spare us your anger.
I’m with you Guard.

[Bob Morane]

Your Father may have a high intellect and have good flying skill but that does not mean that because you are his son that you will necessarily become as good as him in his profession unless that you are motivated to
become a pilot in the first place. From my over 25 years aviation experience, I have found pilots with average intelligence with high motivation and a LOVE for flying turning out to be the best in this industry.

[Gnadenburg]

Now before some of us get told to lighten up how about we review the legacy of Virgin Blue. And it is not me who needs to bull$$$$s my wage on pprune or at the bar at the Hamo.

Virgin Blue's initial cadre of training captains were paid 100K. Well below half the incumbants. Another stinging legacy for future generations was the paying for their sub-standard 737 endorsement.

Virgin Blue pilots set a precedent that was followed by the likes of J* and Tiger. Sadly, despite a shortage of pilot experience, the new Virgin 777 operation is following suit- with the superb line of quoting salary including super. Perhaps Virgin management overheard the 737 boys sexing up their miserly wage. By including every ancillary perk, adjusted for tax, to come somewhere near the incumbant wage equivalents.

Virgin pilots have done OK over the last six years. But they put themseleves in the drivers seat by coming in at an incredibly low base. Smart? Possibly and some had NO choice. But there is a considerable legacy that has been paid for by future generations of pilots.

And yes it is not all about money. But a group that can't negotiate resonable pay will fall down in other areas and conditions of service. The real picture I get from blokes in VB is poor lifestyle and now average pay- a bar they set!

What happens next? Operators will wake up in Australia to take advantage of lifestyle desires of the 'pilot haves'. Future wage pressures and shortages will be softened by the new licensing at one end, and repatriating or extending retirment experience at the other. There are hundreds ( thousands really in a beyond 65 context) of pilots who will happily work, and can afford to, for a lot less then current rates. All they will want is lifestyle rosters.

Then the current generation will understand the notion of being undercut!

[Blip]

The exhaustion of supply of fossil fuels will destroy the commercial aviation industry.

I'm not so pessimistic.

Do a search on the internet using two words. "Biodiesel" and "Algae".
Sooner or later the fossil fuel industry lobbyists will lose the ear of the governments.

Here is one reference that is most interesting: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algaculture

The corporations Chevron, Honeywell, and Boeing are starting algae businesses. According to Boeing's technology leader for energy and emissions, Dave Daggett, 'In the past two years, we have changed from algae skeptics to proponents'.

[fmcinop]

So you earnt $250,000 as a 737 captain and only did 650 hours to get it? I have a copy of the latest Qantas Agreement and I don't see how! Also the initial captains wage was $110,000 plus a $10,000 retention payment after 12 months. the Next years the Captains wage was $113,300 plus a $15,000 bonus. I don't know were you got the $100,000 salary from?