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oicur12
9th Dec 2007, 05:05
According to news outlets such as Reuters and AAP, the National Iranian Oil Company will cease selling oil denominated in US Dollars.

Iran will now sell oil in various currencies, predominantly Euros and Yen. Iran has been selling oil to Japan denominated in Yen since September this year.

Key OPEC members will be discussing a move away from the US Dollar and will announce the results at its next meeting.

Is the saber rattling aimed at Iran really about its vague nuclear ambitions or has it more to do with the US losing its grip on Dollar hegemony.

Countries such as Iraq, Iran and Venezuela are paying the price of non-compliance.

Gnirren
9th Dec 2007, 06:35
Yank bashing!!

Thread removal in 3...2...1... :}

FatEric
9th Dec 2007, 07:45
hah.

yank bashing.

Ya reckon.

This is a very real issue.

The middle east is being reshaped by your gummint for oil and money reasons and nothing else.

But yank bashing.

plleeease.

Earl
9th Dec 2007, 10:27
Its more than the oil industry.
With the fall of the dollar many companies are considering switching to Euros.
For those of us working abroad and paid in USD'S are seeing a big cut in our salaries.
I am not sure what it would take to stop this fall but something needs to be done.
I know my company is considering the switch now.
Not Yank bashing, reality!

Desert Diner
9th Dec 2007, 10:31
I am not sure what it would take to stop this fall but something needs to be done.


When the Euro zone follows the US into the inevitable recession.

brickhistory
9th Dec 2007, 14:03
I didn't take the thread opener as Yank bashing.

It's Iran trying to stick it to the US.


I'm no currency trading expert, so I look forward to, hopefully, reading more from some more knowledgable on the subject.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

And for Gnirren's 'yank bashing' = thread removal quip; may I ask him to just do some casual reading. You'll see that most of those types of threads don't get removed.

When a poster or two goes mental and calls for assinations and/or blames the problems of the entire world on Jews/Muslims/Christians and expresses a desire to see said group eradicated, well, it does tend to draw the mods' ire, in my opinion.

Rollingthunder
9th Dec 2007, 14:21
Most of the oil America imports comes from us (Canada).

We can make up any shortfall.

So, **** Iran.

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaargh!
9th Dec 2007, 14:31
It's Iran trying to stick it to the US.
[sensible comment]
Not really. I can't see them trashing their economy just for spite. The switch from USD to somthig else is an open statement the they have no faith in the future of the Dollar
[/sensible comment]


[bush bashing]
...and why would they when you look at what the current administration has don to it for the past eight years?
[/bush bashing]

pigboat
9th Dec 2007, 16:05
Is a high Euro a good thing (http://www.american.com/archive/2007/april-0407/new-euro-record-prompts-quiet-grumbles/)?

Possible Euro bashing.
Possible thread removal....3..2..1.:p

Gnirren
9th Dec 2007, 18:59
Jeez what a bunch of old grumps...

anyhoo doesn't this thread pick up where the now removed Iran thread left off? Seems to me it's only a matter of time before this one goes too, and of course it's not yank bashing. Yet. Eh ;-)

rotornut
9th Dec 2007, 20:43
The US does not import oil from Iran:
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/mttim_nus-nir_2m.htm

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_ep00_im0_mbblpd_m.htm

EchoMike
9th Dec 2007, 21:32
Iran doesn't want USD - so what? That puts them in the same category as two of the other experts on international finance, the first being Giselle Bundchen and the second is some moronic rapper whose name isn't important enough to remember for longer than it takes to read the news article.

The Chinese, however, who are NOT noted for financial stupidity, have no problem at all accepting US Dollars. Despite hysterical media reports to the contrary, the USD is not going down the tubes and doomed, right now it is simply a less attractive currency to invest in because USD denominated financial instruments presently have lower rates of return than Euro or Sterling financial instruments.

Bernanke is keeping the interest rates down right now (which reduces the return on USD financial instruments) to stabilize the economy, which is presently going through a chicken-little ("the sky is falling!") episode with problems in sub-prime mortgages - which were stinkers even before they were combined into stock offerings.

As soon as the current problems clear up (and they will), the value of the USD is going to soar. If it increases by 30%, the vast Chinese hoard of USD has just gained 30% in value - just because they had a bunch of them to sit on - so now who's stupid?

As far as oil is concerned, in 2009 or 2010, look for a car called the Chevrolet Volt. (You can Google it now.) GM says it will get about 535 mpg . . . that's five hundred thirty five miles per gallon . . . and it will sell for the price of a Honda Accord. If it gets half that, I'll be pleased. GM, which can make a HUGE number of cars if it wants to, is not the only player in the hybrid/ultra-high mileage game either, so I think that in the next ten years we are going to see the demand for gasoline plummet - and take prices down right along with it. If no one wants any, "peak oil" becomes a paper tiger.

People have been cackling over the imminent demise of the USA for many years. Somehow we always manage to disappoint them, and come roaring back with a vengeance - this time will be no different.

Footnote - here's an example of the kind of nonsense reactions to the sub-prime problem: Some years ago *I* formulated a program which allowed UK buyers to purchase vacation homes in Florida and repay the loans in Sterling. Abbey National adopted MY program, ran it for some years, sold it to First National, who sold it to General Electric as "British Mortgages in America". They had a portfolio of almost 3,000 loans and had eleven defaults - that is an astonishingly low loss ratio. In October, GE pulled the plug on it with five hours notice - seems they were collateralizing the loans and no one would buy the packages any more out of general fear of CMOs - these were the BEST quality with the lowest loss ratios in the business, but no one would touch them! End of cash flow, end of game.

Want some good financial advice? Buy Dollar denominated assets while they are cheap - they'll be going up significantly in the next year or so - where else can you earn 25 to 30% a year just from currency fluctuations?

Best Regards,

Echo Mike
(who also knows a bit about other things than airplanes!)

airship
9th Dec 2007, 22:38
Rollingthunder wrote: Most of the oil America imports comes from us (Canada). That remark surprised me, but since I still occasionally play the lotto numbers he gave me once, I thought I'd do some research.

According to this website (http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/company_level_imports/current/import.html), Canada was indeed the N° 1 supplier to the USA, at the rate of 1,777,000 barrels of crude oil or 2,330,000 barrels of all petroleum products, per day, during the period of Jan-Sep 2006. That probably explains why the Canadian $ is on a par with or worth more today than the US $.

However, using the term "most of the oil America imports...comes from Canada" is over-exagerrated. At best under any measures, it's still less than 20% of total US oil (or all petroleum product) imports.

Still, Canada's ahead of Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Venezuela, Nigeria and even Algeria. Before Iraq comes into play. Iran doesn't even appear on the top 15 charts...?!

Does this mean that the USA already quietly invaded all those countries... so why bother with Iran?! :confused:

con-pilot
9th Dec 2007, 22:55
Ah you're one funny dude Airship. Back to Yank bashing I see.
:ugh:

Life's a Beech
9th Dec 2007, 22:58
America set about policies that seemed designed to weaken the dollar. That has probably helped the recent export strength that has helped the US economy to carry on growing, when many expected the start of the recession. The only effect of this change in the US will be a short-term, slight downward pressure on the dollar, just when it appears that the Americans want the dollar to be cheap. I can't see the Americans being too worried about it.

More worrying for the rest of us, perhaps, who have had the high cost of oil ameliorated by the cheap dollar. I do not have the economic foresight to judge. Perhaps this will just bring the oil price down.

goshdarnit
9th Dec 2007, 23:16
Timberland jacket at LHR ... £136
Self same Timberland jacket at West Farms mall, CT ... US$160
(plus "one day only!" 30% discount on outdoor gear)

Works for me.

(Don't actually buy that many barrels of oil myself, from Canada or Iraqistanarania.)


:)


GDI

G-CPTN
9th Dec 2007, 23:54
The history of Iranian Oil:-
The Anglo-Persian Oil Company (APOC) was founded in 1908 following the discovery of a large oil field in Masjed Soleiman, Iran. It was the first company using the oil reserves of the Middle East. APOC was renamed Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (AIOC) in 1935 and eventually became the British Petroleum Company (BP) in 1954,

William Knox D'Arcy negotiated an oil concession with the Shah Mozzafar al-Din Shah Qajar of Persia in 1901 giving away control of Iranian oil reserves to Britain for 60 years. However, within a few years D'Arcy was almost bankrupted by the cost of exploration and so to raise capital he sold a large portion of the stock to the Burmah Oil Company Ltd. who created the Anglo-Persian Oil Company (APOC) as a subsidiary and also sold shares to the public.

Volume production of Persian oil products eventually started in 1913 from a refinery built at Abadan. The British government, at the impetus of a middle-aged Winston Churchill, First Lord of the Admiralty, partly nationalized the company in 1913 in order to secure British-controlled oil supplies for its ships. APOC took a 50% share in a new Turkish Petroleum Company organised in 1912 by Calouste Gulbenkian to explore and develop oil resources in the Ottoman Empire. After a hiatus caused by World War I it reformed and struck an immense gusher at Kirkuk, Iraq in 1927, renaming itself the Iraq Petroleum Company.

More at:- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Iranian_Oil_Company

airship
9th Dec 2007, 23:57
Ah you're one funny dude Airship. Back to Yank bashing I see. :ugh: What is your problem con-pilot, everything becomes "yank-bashing" to you apparently?!

You've a major oil supplier on your northern border. A source of cheap immigrant labour for "cleaning up after y'all" to the south. All without a shot being fired. Thousands of miles of oceans separate you on both sides from anyone with a Kalashnikov in their hands (unless it's one supplied by your own arms-dealers "under the 2nd amendment") that is.

Well, I'm literally sick and tired of living under this worldwide 21st century capitalist hegemony or whatever else you like to call it all. I'd like to go find me a Bengal tiger in the Sunderbans and endeavour to establish a symbiotic relationship. Unfortunetly, I won't be able to take any nuclear weapons with me to the mangroves. Otherwise, tigers would be a factor to be reckoned with, instead of what they are. But maybe, just maybe, someone might yet be able to develop some awful bird-flu virus that will wipe-out 90% of humanity - I'm just guessing that it already exists, and someone just poisonned his favourite cat...?! :uhoh:

oicur12
10th Dec 2007, 02:05
Gnirren,

Yank bashing.

Hardly. The US economy has become the driving force behind the global economy. My comments wrt greenback hegemony are in no way intended to lay blame on your government or the citizens of your fine country. There are certain economic imperatives that your country must satisfy in order for growth to continue both domestically and internationally. One imperative is the continuation of dollar hegemony. Without huge demand for greenbacks, the US current account deficit will become unmanageable. This is not your fault, its not Bush’s fault. It is, however, very real. And it is a huge driving force behind US foreign policy. Any country that employs trade mechanisms that undermine the demand for US dollars will be dealt with diplomatically, economically or militarily.

Iran is treading a very fine line. Iraq crossed it.

It’s not about nuclear weapons. It has nothing to do with the fact that the US imports its oil from Canada and Mexico.

con-pilot
10th Dec 2007, 02:14
Well, I'm literally sick and tired of living under this worldwide 21st century capitalist hegemony or whatever else you like to call it all. I'd like to go find me a Bengal tiger in the Sunderbans and endeavour to establish a symbiotic relationship. Unfortunetly, I won't be able to take any nuclear weapons with me to the mangroves. Otherwise, tigers would be a factor to be reckoned with, instead of what they are. But maybe, just maybe, someone might yet be able to develop some awful bird-flu virus that will wipe-out 90% of humanity - I'm just guessing that it already exists, and someone just poisonned his favourite cat...?!

Well, everyone has an opinion. At least you are predictable. :p

(Although not always understandable.)

West Coast
10th Dec 2007, 02:41
"Well, I'm literally sick"

Sorry, but this is one of my pet peeves. Please look up the definition of literally. Bugs me almost as much a near miss to describe a two aircraft coming close to one another.

brickhistory
10th Dec 2007, 03:02
copied from a con-pilot post:


Quote:
Well, I'm literally sick and tired of living under this worldwide 21st century capitalist hegemony

As airsick is one of the few I've blocked, I didn't see his post, but one could offer several alternatives - one being move and another to cease living.

I'm not suggesting either one, but they are alternatives....................

con-pilot
10th Dec 2007, 03:08
I'm not suggesting either one, but they are alternatives....................

Love it Brick, just love it. :ok:

(I was going to write; opinions are like arseholes, everyone has one. But I didn't due to the new French President, seems like a nice guy. Plus I was trying to be nice, why I don't have a clue.)

AcroChik
10th Dec 2007, 05:50
Brick ~

You're missing the fun.

When AirShip's coherent he's pretty funny.

Gnirren
10th Dec 2007, 08:02
Pretty funny that I have oicur12 telling me off :O

But I was right wasn't I? This is turning into one of them jolly yank bashing threads. Problem with the yanks is you have to blow as softly as a breeze, anything harder and wham! You're a'yank bashin'. "Operation terminate critique", the brainchild of BrickCon Inc efficiently stopping posts dead in their tracks with replies such as "Pot to kettle", "Carry on...." and "Sigh...".

Well as long as it keeps me entertained. And it does :ok:

This whole dollar-oil debacle makes for pretty interesting reading actually, but I'd look elsewhere than JB for actual info on it. Still we're having fun aren't we lads. It'll be interesting to see what happens after the intelligence report that downplayed the threat Iran poses too.

BenThere
10th Dec 2007, 12:27
Spot on, gnirren. If I took you seriously I'd be really peeved.

I'm curious, though, as to your take on the NIE as it relates to your contention that war with Iran will be due to its trading oil in other than dollars. By your reasoning, wouldn't this be the final straw? Yet when the event actually occurs, NIE comes along and throws a wet blanket on all the saber rattling. How's that?

The truth is, oil trades largely in dollars because it's the most easily convertible currency in the world, with vast, efficient financial infrastructure able to convert bahts, drachmas, yuan and the like from countries who need to buy oil or anything else quickly and at low cost into a form readily tradeable on global markets. The transactions are electronic and have very little effect on the currency exchange value of the dollar. To think that the threat of this mechanism being rivaled by such transactions being made in other currencies would motivate the US to a military response is preposterous, and only a 'troofer' would buy into it.

The dollar's function as a reserve currency is a different matter, with much more import. The Economist writes about it nearly every week. That is where central banks get involved and the global balances become a matter of concern both as to the value of the dollar and the health of the global economy. Still I don't believe anyone has ever gone to war over that.

My take is that the dollar is at or near the trough of its trend, and it will start rising again relative to the currency basket. Resistance is strong when the dollar index presses on 75. Purchasing power parity indexes would indicate a strengthening dollar, though that effect can take many years to materialize.

I could be wrong, and the dollar may go much lower yet, but I'm lightening up on Canada and Australia, where I've long been overweight (see my posts on the subject over the years), and moving more into US and US multinational assets denominated in dollars. But that's just me.

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaargh!
10th Dec 2007, 13:31
If it increases by 30%...it'll almost be back to parity with the Euro.

ORAC
10th Dec 2007, 13:36
http://d.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/uc/20071210/lprc071210.gif

MadsDad
10th Dec 2007, 14:55
As regards dollars and oil.

My Economics 101 always said if there is a lot of something no one wants it will be cheap (e.g. trash and garbage, you have to pay to get it taken away) but if there is a scarcity of something people do want, for whatever reason,
they will pay a lot for it (e.g. gold, diamonds). Basic supply and demand.

Post above says China is perfectly willing to take U.S. Dollars but also mentions that China gets a lot of it's oil from Iran. If Iran starts pricing oil in Euros instead of dollars it is likely to need a lot more Euros than Dollars and is therefore likely to be willing to pay more for Euros and less for Dollars.

Ditto all other oil suppliers and consumers - you need the currency they accept in payment.

oicur12
10th Dec 2007, 16:38
Gnirren,

You need to develop a thicker skin wrt “yank bashing”. My comments are not intended to assign blame to anybody living in the US. I thought I was clear about that in my previous post.

The global economy has evolved into a system that places large amounts of power in the hands of those residing in Washington. I am not suggesting that this has occured as a matter of design. The people dealing the cards in today’s global economy did not start the game nor did they write the rules.
Never the less, we are stuck with a system that we did not ask for and is far from perfect.

Benthere,

“The truth is, oil trades largely in dollars because it's the most easily convertible currency in the world, . . . “
This was once the case but is no longer.
“The Economist writes about it nearly every week. That is where central banks get involved and the global balances become a matter of concern both as to the value of the dollar and the health of the global economy.”
This requires some clarification. I am unsure exactly what you are implying with this statement.

“Still I don't believe anyone has ever gone to war over that.”
War is usually fought for financial reasons although our leaders are skillful at cloaking its justification to garner the support of the gullible majority. Religion. Terrorism. Communism. Humanitarianism.

stellair
10th Dec 2007, 16:56
Oh dear, what will dubbya find to pin on them as an excuse for shock and awe 2...........:bored:

BenThere
10th Dec 2007, 17:20
To clarify, Oicur 12:

The dollar is still the most convertable currency.

I've used before the illustration of when I was a world traveller (I'm domestic now). I used to layover in Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur, Dubai, and such. At these places the crew bus would pick us up at the airport and take us to the hotel. After the layover, the bus picked us up and brought us back to the hotel. The driver always gets a $1 tip, and it has been this way since I started flying 30 years ago.

In any of these places, if you try to hand the driver a pound, euro, or 100 yen coin, you will get a reaction of disdain. You've created a hassle for him. If you hand him a dollar, he smiles and pockets it. He can take that dollar to any corner forex exchange and immediately get HK dollars, ringits, or dirhams.

The euro, pound and yen are not at that level, though that could change. They may be electronically convertible, but are not universal. That's what I was getting at.

Reserve currencies are different. We all know China, Japan, and the oil barons hold trillions of dollars as reserves. They worry their holdings are losing value as the dollar has declined. If they dump their dollars, the value of their holdings will go down further, and the industry that earned the dollars in the first place will face reduced production and sales if they cost more dollars, reducing demand. Generally, then, they want to keep the value of their dollars at a higher level.

The dollar as a reserve currency and the dollar as an exchange medium and trade facilitator are two entirely different subjects.

Hope that helps.

airship
11th Dec 2007, 14:16
As airsick is one of the few I've blocked, I didn't see his post, but one could offer several alternatives - one being move and another to cease living. A true brickbat that could only come from the aptly-named brickhistory obviously. You should seriously consider removing me from your filter mate, unless you're really as thick as a... because you might be missing out on some fun :}


When AirShip's coherent he's pretty funny. I'm always coherent when I drive. I never drink and drive. I almost never prune without a drink either. Apologies (and gratitude) to all who put up with my strange utterings...

PS. If the Bengal tiger possessed a nuclear deterrent, there'd probably be lots more of them left around today! That may or not have something to do with my previous meanderings. And Iran. Or tigers. Or the pricing of Iranian oil in US dollars. My brain's getting tired... :O

http://www.versacreations.net/images/Slogan/Slogan%20Esso%20Tiger%20Ad.jpg