Are things slowing down?

[PosClimb]

I've been looking at the vacancies at Rishworth and Parc, and the requirements asked of pilots seem to be going up.

Seems everyone wants 500 hours on type, a current type rating and an ATPL just for an FO position.

Is the movement slowing down?

[v6g]

I think so. In unison with the world economy.

[dartagnan]

I have applied with PARC too for an A320 position.
yes, their clients want hours on type.

I am not surprised, when pilots pay for line training and time building to finish unemployed , why should they hire guys with 0 hours?

[wbryce]

its winter season so recruitment slows down, it will pick up Feb/March time for the upcoming summer season.

[Brian Fantana]

Novemeber is always a quiet month. Changing over from the summer season to the winter season. Ski flights and Santa flights have not yet started.
There have also been the mergers of the big 4 UK charter airlines.
Rumour is there maybe (lets hope not) redundancies from them.
I guess they wont know until they have their figures for holiday sales, seat capacity, and fleet sizing for next summer.

[Anonymus6]

It is chirstmas time and everything is slowing down for now, even the airline I'm working for is not having any classes or hiring anyone for the time (AND WE ARE SHORT ON CREW VERY SHORT). But it will start end of January. And one more thing soon we will see airlines lowering their minimus for 2008.

Good luck

[Boonanza]

Easyjet are forecasting fleet growth by 80 aircraft over the next 3 years, Ryanair will double both it's fleet and profit by 2012. Most of the EU major airlines have announced fleet replacement strategies, focussed on the 787/A350 and (fingers crossed) some more will commit to the 747-8.

737/A320/747/777/A330/787 production slots are edging on being fully booked for the next few years. Leasing values for 737's/A320's are very high, with limited short term availability.

The 747-400F production line is fully sold out and the 747-8F will bring with it another era in the air-freight market. Movements in global trade patterns + heavy growth in certain areas of central asia/africa, and the potential for development of an A320 freighter variant, with a rising trend towards internet shopping, integrators and freight carriers are poised for a busy few years to follow.

Fuel prices may be high, but for many European carriers, this has been partly offset by the weak USD, with many airlines gaining with leasing agreements/loans in USD.

Open skies between EU/US are to start March next year and the EU has just started talks with Canada about open skies. Oasis Hong Kong have proved a no-frills model that works between Asia/Europe, with others gearing up to tackle this market.

Emirates/Qatar/Etihad and many of the major asian carriers have very agressive expansion plans, and there are developing pilot shortages in Australia and parts of Asia.

Raising the compulsory retirement age to 65 has diluted the impact of retirements in the short term, however it will be interesting to see age distribution/retirement projections in the coming 2-3 years.

I am wondering if 2008 is just going to be the calm before the storm?!

I am aware that this is only one side of the argument, and would suggest anyone reading this post review some of the more 'doom and gloom' posts, but I thought it was about time someone put together a list of the counter-arguments to some of the more negative posts.

Nonetheless, if you really want to fly, you will do it no matter what the market conditions are... my first training flight was on the day Ansett collapsed.

Back to swimming in a holding pool for me... with the prospect of another year of swimming, but i am sure it will be well worth the wait!

:ok: Boonie

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFGYcnBFxlw (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFGYcnBFxlw)

[Boonanza]

Being an aussie is what makes him the legend he is... ;)

You make a very good point and I thoroughly agree that optimism doesnt pay the bills. I just wanted to point out that there is some blue sky lurking behind the dark clouds...

:ok: Boonie

[SlingsbyT67M]

This site needs more people like Boonie!!

Here's to you my good man. A strong positive attitude. You will go far!!

The rest of you should take note. Stop being so :mad: negative. You all knew the consequences of what you were doing. You are all adults. You all decided to either spend the big bucks (for those of you that had them) or borrow beg and steal (for those of you that could) to get yourselves into what you loved doing. And yes I know that there are some of you for whom its just not possible at all...

Now stop your whining and go and make your destiny happen.

Sometimes I wonder why I keep coming back to this site. You all just whine about how hard the world is and how bad the job market is treating you.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

US recession plus Open Skies may knacker the transatlantic party for some established names next year. House price crashes in Ireland, France, Spain, Southern Italy, Denmark and the UK are all under way and will seriously stunt the economy and second home ownership.

The Euro at 1.5 Dollars is threatening to cripple Airbus with its 2,200 Billion DOLLAR orderbook and its costbase in EURO... Same goes for many large European companies with worldwide sales.

All lo-co expansion will occur on the continent and with the big UK Charter airlines merging they will be looking for efficiencies not new hiring. Winter is not even half way yet and traditionally we see an airline go bankrupt over it. Won't be long now.

2008 is surely the year that Alitalia will finally collapse like the the walking zombie it has been for many years and they may just be the first.


The last recession started in 1990. Do a google search on the "18 yr economic cycle" and then check the calendar. Go on, do it.


Avoid sharp debt. Train slowly, train cheaply, train modular. Would be my advice right now. Moderate turbulence ahead.


WWW

[Superpilot]

EasyJet = 120 firm orders, Ryanair = 170 firm orders

290 planes at 5.5 crew each = 1595 new pilots over the next 5 years, that's 319 pilots a year going to Locos. Is this outlook too simplistic? If so, why?

Thanks

[heebeegb]

Get in a safe seat. Stay in a safe seat. Think the next 5 years will be very tough for those airlines left on their own after the recent mergers/buy outs.

[Diamond_Dog]

Boonanza and Topslide6,

Both good posts and together promoting a balanced view!

WWW, haha.. Don't you just love a realist! You say go modular! With the benefit of hindsight I can see more merit in this if people choose their training package carefully. However, there are merits to the in house/integrated route still particulary when looking at recruitment for certain airlines and for guys that couldn't afford jack (like me), even modular, so went and won a cash cow via a large FTO instead.

If the slowdown does kick in then an interesting indicator will be when the likes of HSBC stop providing 80 odd grand unsecured loans to OAT and CTC cadets once they have passed the respective selection processes! (Especially as banks are now tightening up on lending). Along with the likes of FTE & Cabair (with the CTC ramp up on output due to hit the market anytime now), I think there is going to be alot of swimming in hold pools by integrated/in house students with scores of modular students fighting for a swim too. Potentially alot of unserviced debt! The key to it all is timing. Somewhat a black art.

My personal worry is a looming recession in the US and the knock on effects this will have on Europe & Asia. For sure many good indicators outlined by Boonanza but also mergers and consolidation to think about too! Maybe it's just me being paranoid but I get the general sense things are beginning to slow everywhere! As for the UK, many have pissed the last 10 years away under Blair and all the Champagne has now been drank. Personal debt is at an all time high with the banks beginning to struggle.

I think we are going to be in for an interesting year or 2 which ever way it goes!

Housing prices falling through the floor whilst being able to hold down a well paid jet job would be ideal! :}

However, I guess that's asking for trouble!!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Do not count aircraft orders as jobs.

Aircraft orders made some years ago at attractive post Sept 11th prices need not ever result in an actual aircraft based in the UK. If the market for tickets is week an airline can take delivery in the morning and then hand it over to a leasing company in the afternoon and pocket a big cheque for its trouble.

The leasing company then flies it over to the booming regions of India and China and leases it to some new startup airline. Not a sniff of a job for Joe Wannabe. Maybe good news for Xhagtse Wannabe or Rubjab Wannable though.


Looking around todays papers shows ample evidence of tight times ahead.
From the Daily Telegraph:

Shares in UK restaurant owners were slammed this morning after The Clapham House Group, owner of the Gourmet Burger Kitchen and Tootsies chains, warned that British consumers are slashing their spending.
Clapham House shares dived almost 50 pc on the news, and dragged shares in The Restaurant Group and Domino's Pizza down by about 10pc each.

The Telegraph also has:


ScS Upholstery has become the latest retailer to warn that consumer confidence is in sharp decline. ScS expects shoppers to avoid big-ticket items
The specialist sofa retailer warned at its annual general meeting today that "challenging trading conditions" were likely to hit its interim results.
Total sales of the Sunderland-based retailer are down 9pc for the first 17 weeks of the current financial year, while like for like sales are down by 16 pc.

Mike Browne, executive chairman of ScS, said interest rate rises and the credit squeeze are now taking their toll.

"Trading conditions have been much more challenging than anticipated," he said. "Consumer confidence has been severely hit by hit with regard to 'big ticket' purchases."


And that's one paper on one day. Economics is a dismal science and an imprecise one. It leads me at the moment to be very cautious and bearish on the prospects of 2008 and 2009 UK economy.

Good luck,

WWW

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

And don't just think its the Telegraph on the Right who are predicting disaster. Larry Elliot the Economics Editor of The Guardian writes this today:


The UK is facing at best a painful correction in the property market and at worst a full-blown crash that could wipe about £50,000 off the value of the average home over the next few years. Why? Because none of the explanations for the UK being a special case really stack up. If the British property market looks like a bubble, feels like a bubble, smells like a bubble, then it is a bubble.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2007/dec/03/houseprices.marketturmoil


Any wannabe under the age of 30 doesn't remember the house price crash of 1990 and the recession of that time and the scale and speed of devastation that it wreaked on the commercial flying industry.

Those that fail to learn the lessons of history are doomed to repeat its mistakes.


WWW

ps Merry Christmas!

[SinBin]

And the big reason for this predicted crash is the huge levels of personal debt people have got into......such as flight training at rediculously over priced schools cos that's the 'only way to get a job'!!!!!!!

[fiveo]

Thats it Ive heard enough Im going to top myself!

:E

[sick_bag]

hmm yeah you have a point - after you with the stanley knife fiveo old chap!
:}:E

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

This is a critical function of PPRuNe Wannabes you know. There is a tsunami of marketing spin and vested interests out there all just itching for Joe Wannabe to take the plunge and start writing cheques.

Hopefully here you get the unvarnished truth, alternative view and note of caution. 'Cause you won't find it anywhere else much.

Good luck,

WWW

[Diamond_Dog]

Hopefully here you get the unvarnished truth


haha... legend.. & not at all biased!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Whose biased which way?

WWW:confused:

[Artie Fufkin]

Check out the wannabe forums in early 2001.

There were a few posts asking similar questions to this thread. Some replies stating that they were then reaching the end of the recruitment cycle and to prepare for harder times ahead, others (the majority) posting blind optimism. Makes fairly sober reading.

The world economic cycle is 7 years and we are reaching the end of the mature phase right now (as we were in early 2001, ie 7 years ago). Whilst no one could have predicted 9/11, Iraq, Sars etc, some prudent individuals were questioning future prospects even before Sept 11th and its subsequent 3 year recruitment drought.

As WWW says, those who do not learn the lessons of history are doomed to repeat its mistakes.

There is no visible imminent collapse, but all the classic signs of a slow down are there. How much things slow down is moot.

[Bernoulli's bro]

Hi guys,

I work on the trading floor in a very big investment bank. All the traders/speculators all say one thing:

RECESSION - not if but when..

I'm not an economist or anything but i have learned to respect their opinion and they think that the US economy will go into reverse late next year and well when they have a cold we have a flu (or something along those lines)...

Can't wait for this to happen as the opportunites to buy will be tremendous (lots of money to be made) and well i will finally be able to afford a home!....yeeehaaaaa (sorry to all those poor sods who have loans, mortages :* .. you're loss is my gain ;) ... finally)

:cool:

[Mister Geezer]

The UK is about to pass through a trough. Here are a few examples

Virgin

No expansion or recruitment until the 787s arrive in about 3 years time

easyJet

Recruiting for holding pools now and will have the integration of GB to worry about for next year

Thomson/First Choice & My Travel/Thomas Cook

Redundancies have been mentioned on other threads when these two merge. Not sure what the latest news is.

BMI Mainline

Very similar to easyjet since they have recently added BMed to their operation.

Excel

Despite new shiny A330s coming they are downsizing their UK operation. Cabin crew being made redundant - however not sure what the state of play is for flight crew.

The above examples may not be 100% accurate but they will give you a rough idea!

The high price of oil, the unstable dollar and relatively high interest rates will all have a negative effect on commercial aviation in the UK.

So from someone from the inside looking out I would echo what WWW said.
If you are after that first job then time to maybe think of a back up plan - instructing for example. If you have not done your training then either hold off for the time being if you are going to do a integrated course or do the modular route in your own time.

[Re-Heat]

Guidance from the financial markets - what drive the revenues!

Shares of Europe's key flag carriers came under further pressure today (4/12/207) amid
mounting fears that trading conditions will weaken next year.
Although key players British Airways , Air France-KLM and Deutsche Lufthansa
continue to see strong passenger demand, analysts believe weaker economic
conditions could hit their lucrative premium traffic going into next year.
High oil prices and increased competition on key transatlantic and Asian
routes are also damping prospects in the sector, they said.
"The stock market is telling you that the airline industry has already peaked,"
JP Morgan analyst Chris Avery said at an airline conference in London this week.

Avery said the sector appears to have reached a cyclical peak in profitability
although not in passenger growth.
BA, Air France-KLM, Lufthansa and smaller players such as Spain's Iberia Lineas
Aereas de Espana all generate a large chunk of their profits from sales of
premium tickets, or first and business class, on long-haul routes.
This lucrative traffic typically softens during times of weaker economic growth
as global financial institutions and other blue-chip companies look to trim back
on international travel.
In a research note issued today, ABN Amro said airline share prices are
reflecting $90 oil and a likely slowdown in premium traffic.
"We believe premium traffic growth will slow and think the market has got it
right, despite the companies' protestations that we are in a developing market
driven super-cycle," it said.
Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, has cut its earnings estimates for the major
carriers, reflecting a negative pricing environment in 2008.
"We estimate that ticket prices need to rise by more than 2% in some cases to
offset fuel cost inflation, and as yields can fall by as much as 8% through the
cycle, risks are skewed to the downside," it said.
"I think the industry has gone back to negative yields," Chris Avery of JP
Morgan said.
Yields are typically a measure of average unit revenue per passenger.
Avery added that low-cost, or budget, carriers are likely to be more resilient
in any economic downturn.
Share prices have already fallen sharply this year reflecting fears over the
outlook.
So far this year, shares in BA are down 39%, Air France-KLM are down 28%, and
Lufthansa is off 18%.
Sentiment has also been hit by rising fuel costs, while BA also faces
increasing competition from next April at its Heathrow base when the 'open
skies' pact opens up the airport to more competition for transatlantic services.

Mid-afternoon today, BA was down 6.4% at 322p in London, Lufthansa shares were
down 2.8% at EUR17.69 and Air France-KLM off 3.6% at EUR22.83 in Paris.
Lawrence Hunt, chief executive of UK business-class only airline Silverjet,
told Dow Jones Newswires in a recent interview that his company is seeing
increased interest from investment banks looking for lower priced tickets
compared to the major flag carriers.
Silverjet flies from London's Luton Airport to New York and Dubai and says its
tickets are significantly cheaper than those offer by major carriers.
BA, Lufthansa and Air France-KLM all saw strong upturns in profit during the
quarter to September 30 and are still reporting strong passenger demand.
British Airways, however, did trim its full-year sales outlook, but this was
mainly due to the impact of the weaker dollar on results.
European carriers are due to release November passenger traffic this week and
next.

Rod Stone, Dow Jones Newswires

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

LIBOR saw the biggest ever jump today.

You don't know what that means. I do. A bit.

It means money is now costing 6.7% for the banks. Who have to then lend it to you or I for a profit AND cover their costs of rent, staff and advertising AND absorb people who go bust and walk away from their loans.

Can you see how expensive debt is going to get yet?

Can you?

Be VERY careful.

WWW

[RJ_Rantster]

Good posts by "Artie Fufkin" & "Mister Geezer"

I am a believer in the seven year cycle theory and believe we are approaching a trough. Previously mentioned facts include:

Easy + GB (equalling min recruitment), Tom + Last Choice (equalling zero recruitment), Cook + MyT (equalling min), etc. In general, not looking good. Just look on ppjn, under the "outlook" section of various airlines...

However, HSBC will never stop lending the money as long as OAT (etc) keep taking the students, which they will. If the next two years is as bad as predicted for jobs, OAT will still be laughing! A max turnover of 1.5 million per course, around 18 million per year (i have no idea how much profit that would equate to but still!). Now who's in the wrong job!

It isn't about the money though, until you get the job...

[Diamond_Dog]

As John Michael Stipe sang so well....

"It's the end of the World as we know it" :}

Urm...


HSBC will never stop lending the money as long as OAT (etc) keep taking the students


Am I missing something RJ? If OAT/CTC are chucking guys in hold pools for up to a year after they have finished their courses will the banks not realise they are not getting payment schedules stuck to? What about their risk assessors?

2 main reasons why the banks lend 80g unsecured to OAT/CTC students.

1) They passed a 'selection process' so are deemed to comfortably succeed on a 'highly regarded' course.

2) Because the course is supposed to be highly regarded and with FTO's links to airlines as well as proven KPI placement figures. (The banks gets to have a nice slice of repayent money)

So 1) still hopefully gets satisfied and urm..

If the next two years is as bad as predicted for jobs, OAT will still be laughing!

2) goes out of the window...

Will there not be a point in a down turn where the banks will pull the plug? (Minimal jobs available and too much saturation)?

Someone please outline if i'm wrong?

[speedrestriction]

Sorry to pour some sunshine on your damp parade but apparently easyJet have taken a bunch of pilots from CTC's hold pool, NetJets have an ongoing requirement for pilots, Etihad have announced their fleet expansion programme through 2020, according to the Flybe page on OAT's website BE require 10 minimum hours cadets per month through 2009.......7 year cycles? Don't believe in them - merely man's desire to percieve order in a chaotic process.

sr

[Soft Ride]

I think it's going to slow down for a while and then should pick up again.

The reason is very simple: there is far not enough instructors,line training captains and simulators to absorb the huge demand. So what the companies do? Try to attract experienced and rated pilots from other companies. It's just rotating or shifting pilots who are in a position to choose the job they want, including financial package, living environment, and other advantages.

At the end, I can also say that expatriate pilots will be less and less worldwide, because the countries put more and more priorities on their nationals. India is getting more and more equipped with training facilities, China is the same and will even build their own airbuses. Malaysia, Thailand, even Africa with Ethiopia, South Africa,...

So a piece of advice, try to get into a very stable company asap before this situation freezes. And I forgot to mention the oil problem...

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

There isn't an airline pilot in the world who won't tell you that this business is highly cyclical.

Since the 1950's the commercial aviation industry has exactly mirrored the business cycle. There are good years and bad years and they are pretty much identical to the wider economic picture. I gaurantee, 100%, that if the US and Europe enter a recession or near recession in 2008/9 then some airlines will go bust, some will lay off pilots and hardly anyone will want to hire a guy fresh out of flying training.

What is debateable is whether or not you believe the wider economic picture is one containing a US recession and European near recession in 2008/9. I do believe this will happen. I do believe the house price crashes now officially taking place in Ireland, America, France, Spain and elsewhere will occur in the UK. I do believe the economy is in dire straits. YOU may:


Believe that the credit crunch is contained.

Believe that the dollar will recover.

Believe that house prices will hold up.


You might be right.


Time will tell. For now my advice remains, train slowly, spend as little as possible and pay off the debts as you go along the best you can.

Good luck,

WWW

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I honestly didn't go looking for this but just happened to pick up a copy of the Independent as they are (as usual) giving them away in the hotel. Chimes with my views and perhaps shows that I'm not some personally pessimistic loan voice of doom...


Is Britain's economy heading for the perfect storm?

Sean O'Grady, Economics Editor

Published: 05 December 2007

The storm clouds are gathering over the jobs market; the climate on the high street is growing distinctly chilly; a typhoon of bad debt is buffeting the banks. Could a "perfect storm" be about to hit the British economy?

The signs couldn't be much bleaker. The switchback in sentiment since the credit crisis began in the summer has been violent. The Nationwide Consumer Confidence Index recorded its largest drop yesterday, and joins the GfK/NOP survey earlier this week in suggesting that a wave of pessimism not seen for years is washing over the economy.

House prices have begun to fall, albeit slightly; commercial property is seemingly on the brink of collapse on a par with that seen in the early 1990s. The buy-to-let market is vulnerable. The Bank of England has, unprecedentedly, voiced concerns about the grim prospects for real estate. And the Financial Services Authority has warned of the "very real prospect" of the global credit crunch getting much worse. It is that bad.

Shopkeepers are looking forward to a black Christmas. Sir Philip Green, the boss of Top Shop and BHS, said last night on Sky TV that "business is very, very tough". The British Retail Consortium says that sales grew only marginally in November, having slowed markedly in October. JD Sports, ScS furniture and Greene King are the latest household names warning of setbacks. About 4.4 million credit-card customers still haven't cleared debts they ran up last Christmas, according to MoneyExpert.com.

We're less ready to spend, particularly on "big ticket" items – furniture, fridges, cars and so on. We're more pessimistic about our finances. We don't want to take on more debt and we want to rebuild our savings. The credit markets are seizing up again. That means banks are becoming much, much choosier about who they lend to, and are charging ever higher rates, despite the efforts of the authorities to keep money markets functioning normally. No lending; no spending.

That unwillingness to lend – the credit crunch – has started to affect businesses too, though firms remain generally more upbeat than consumers. Manufacturing firms, and in particular those in the car industry, are happy, a veritable ray of sunshine. However, manufacturing makes up only 15 per cent of the economy. In the financial sector, responsible for more than half of the recent growth in the UK's GDP, the mood is glum.

After months defying gravity, share prices have suffered some dramatic falls. City bonuses will be cut this year – and next – along with recruitment and investment. Barclays, HSBC and other banks have reported billions in losses, while the future of Northern Rock is uncertain.

Growth in the construction sector eased to a 14-month low in November, according to the Chartered Institute for Purchasing and Supply. The gentle rise in unemployment over the past 18 months may accelerate. The accountants KPMG say that "what we are seeing is that the credit crunch is tightening its grip over the economy... an underlying weakening, with both demand for permanent staff and vacancies down on the levels earlier this year."

Everyone from the Treasury to the IMF has trimmed their forecasts for UK growth; from close to 3 per cent for 2008, down to nearer 2 per cent. The IMF says that even this is now too optimistic. Is it time to start talking about the "R-word" – recession, and the possibility that the economy might shrink?

The difficulty is that the credit crisis is a process that feeds on itself rather than an event that can be declared "over". It began with the collapse of the US sub-prime mortgage market and the housing crash there, problems which are intensifying. As more sub-prime customers default – because of the credit crunch – more banks record losses and stop lending, and more properties are dumped on to the depressed US housing market. That depresses confidence and spending, and the screw turns again.

On this side of the Atlantic we feel the chill because our banks are exposed to sub-prime and because the US economy is the world's biggest. If it slows, it drags us down with it. And the mood of economic gloom – Northern Rock, headlines on house-price crashes, higher prices for fuel at forecourts and food at checkouts – is reinforcing itself. Confidence is the magic ingredient in any economy; it is evaporating fast. There's no knowing how bad it could get.

The most pernicious aspect of this downturn is how it could turn not so much into a recession, but into "slowflation" – slow growth plus inflation. A depressed economy can co-exist with high inflation, as the world found in the 1970s. Low demand and high input costs (such as oil at $100 [£48] a barrel; wheat prices at record highs) squeeze profits and employment and cut the real value of wages. It also makes it tougher for the Bank of England to allow interest rates to drift lower.

But the really bad weather would arrive if the Chinese economy stumbled. Next year, more than half the world's growth will derive from China, India and other emerging economies. Were they to falter – say because the Shanghai stock market bubble burst – the world would almost certainly lurch into recession.

In all events, the worst of the slowdown will hit us towards the end of 2008, going into the spring and summer of 2009; the point when a general election is due. By then the public finances would be well out of control, though that may be the least of ministers' worries. Gordon Brown might not have sowed the seeds of the coming economic storm, but he may well reap the whirlwind.

http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/article3223673.ece


WWW

[speedrestriction]

Just to clarify - I do not doubt that the strength of the global economy directly affects the demand for air travel; what I do disagree with is the notion of a cycle - a defined periodic repetition of events. Yes the market does go through 'bull' and 'bear' phases but not in any way which we have been truly able to forsee. It always seems to me that dicussions about boom and recession are subject to a certain amount of confirmation bias. And as for consumer confidence - here we are truly into the territory of self fulfilling prophesies.
sr

[Bad Robot]

Spin doctors talk up a recession then talk us all into one.
That's Politics I'm afraid. It's engineered that way on purpose.:ugh:

BR.

[dartagnan]

don't know about 2008 or how it will be regarding flying jobs, but it is time to do something else than flying.

when looking at my friends who have spent a fortune in their aviation training.
some don't have a flying job, and some are still paying to work and are in financial troubles.Few have found a job which pay close of nothing.
it 's impossible to go in a serious airline like BA...:ugh:

[RVR800]

It will all look brighter in the new year; these factors will help

Low Unemplyment (Ever)
Low Interest Rates (historically correct)
Shortage of housing stock - no big falls
Ageing pilot population (Retirements)
Lo-Co pilots getting jaded then retiring due negativity (Older ones)
Oil prices have eased

Happy Xmas :cool:

[speedrestriction]

Posted by Dartagnanit 's impossible to go in a serious airline like BA...

Nonsense as usual Dartagnan. A friend of mine has just joined. Less of the hyperbole please.

sr

[Big Frank]

I second that last post as well. 2 guys I know have just started their BA type ratings this week...still jobs out there at "serious" airlines!
:ok:

[dartagnan]

it 's your friends, it is not you!!!not YOU,not YOU, not YOU!!!!:(
you are doomed, it is my 666th posts:p

[No longer ATC]

Just wanted to say how important it is to think positive and follow your dream!! When I met my better half, he had an ink-wet US CPL and was trying to get a UK flying job.Laker had just collapsed so DC10 skippers were applying for night mail/parachute dropping jobs..it was a really tough market (1982ish) .He stuck with it, paying for the odd hour to keep current. Eventually he met someone who wanted a safety pilot for a C401, did that for 18months to get hours.Eventually offered F27 with Loganair and BCAL 1-11 on same day. Now a -400 skipper with BA.......as Kate Bush sang, "Don't give up!"Seasons' greetings.....NLA xxxxx

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Boom in 2008!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

It will all look brighter in the new year; these factors will help

Low Unemplyment (Ever)
Low Interest Rates (historically correct)
Shortage of housing stock - no big falls
Ageing pilot population (Retirements)
Lo-Co pilots getting jaded then retiring due negativity (Older ones)
Oil prices have eased

RVR 800. A few points.

The rates of unemployment directly have little to do with pilot recruitment as its not exactly a job that can be applied for from the dole office queue.

Interest rates may be low in nominal values. However, if you owe 5 times salary on a 25yr mortgage now re-setting at 6.75% you are just a facked as someone in 1992 who was struggling to pay a 12% mortgage on 3.3 times salary given that average house prices are now 9 times average earning instead of 5 times as in 1992. The same percentage of net income is required to service the debt and just as in the early 90's it can't be so CRASH here we come as people default.

Shortage of housing is an illusion. In every city centre there are thousands of empty flats for sale that nobody wants to buy.

Ageing pilots makes me giggle. The CAA SRG website shows that next year less than 500 pilots will reach retirement age. The same output is exceeded by OATS and CABAIR alone.

Lo-Co pilots such as myself will NOT get jaded as a regime of non-night flying fixed roster lifestyle coupled with six figure salaries couple with many like me being in their early 30's means retirements will be a loooooooong time in arriving.

You think oil is going to fall. Hmm.

WWW

[Grass strip basher]

I think no-one (even WWW) is saying don't chase your dream.... they are just flagging it might not be the best time in the cycle to borrow £70-80k to try and get there.... seems sensible given house prices are now falling etc.
RV800.. I wish I lived in your world... must be a wonderful place living looking in a rearview mirror.... 20:20 hindsight... it proved very useful on Sept 10th a few years back :hmm:

[JB007]

Oh dear god!

I’ve met, and flown with some Grim Reapers but some of you guys really take the biscuit!

Do not read this thread and let it deter you from your dream, it is very worth it when you get there!

I’ve worked in this industry for nearly 17 years, 13 years in a non-flying capacity, and spent most of it in its most volatile sector, the UK Charter market. I indeed now fly for a UK Charter airline. I’ve been made redundant twice and there isn’t one airline on my CV that’s branding remains in the UK. That, I suspect will include my present one by May 2008! And I know 100’s more like me….the point is we are all still here and all getting on with life, not about to throw our selves under a bus after reading some of the “sensationalist press” pasted above! (The word “if” is written quite a lot but I guess that’s what sell papers!) And in this industry, at the top end, with (some of) our salaries, nothing much should be a huge issue for both the present and future!

Now is still a reasonably good time to be an “experienced” pilot. I know of 3 who join easyJet in the New Year, all ex turboprop. I have a mate who’s joining Netjets in a few months from a LE45. CTC doesn’t seem too bad an option either; my company is taking a handful of cadets on for next summer, in view of a merger!

Something positive – WWW has said what’s below a few times in this thread, so lets focus on the positive stuff because I’ve been in this industry long enough to know that it just really ain’t that bad guys! Plus, I think it’s an awesome job….

Here’s a few tips for PPL holders who are wanting a professional flying career that, in essence, what this thread is trying to say in between the doom and gloom that is been spread.

Remain totally aware of your position in the market place with a fATPL and <200 hours. WWW has said it, now do you’re training slowly, I completed a fATPL, from exams to IR whilst remaining employed, it wasn’t easy but it was sensible due to post 09/11.

I would recommend modular right now, don’t even think of a big cost integrated school – the UK industry is going to remain dynamic for the next few years yet, my company’s major changes post merger will be winter 2008/9, i.e. a year from now and I would expect shrinkage on a fairly huge scale. These integrated schools can’t promise jobs that aren’t there! Train modular, at a steady pace. A “chunk” at a time with no pressure.

As an aside, have a read of a post in the Airlines/Airport forum called “What’s going to happen in 2008”. Lots of post’s from spotters and un-qualified “know it alls” but the general thoughts are the same, potentially, the choice of employers in the UK as a whole is dwindling as mergers and buy-outs happen or are rumoured to happen, some make considerable sense. Which is not an issue if your experienced, so don’t focus on a shiny jet as a first job, either save and pay CTC or have a ball flying a turbo-prop, which is the most fun you’ll have flying. The pay is dreadful, but you’ll look back throughout your career with fondness for it and be more respected for having done it.

I finished my written exams in August 2001, we all know what occurred in September of that year, I did my entire training through-out a dire period for aviation and got my first job 6 months after finishing my IR in 2004 – timing is everything. It was 2004/5 before anything drastically moved again on the employment front. I would personally say that it will be steady for the next few years for experienced folk with CTC filling the odd gaps, but 2010/11 could be the next “boom employment” period across the UK industry coinciding with a certain Boeing type arriving to 3 or 4 major UK airlines…

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

What a marvelous example of my current advice.

Train slowly. Keep current employment. Pay off debt as you go along.

If a serious recession hits pilots recruitment you won't be totally screwed. If a slow down hits then you will be able to cope. If things continue to be good then you will start your job two years later than otherwise possible.

Its the most pragmatic path.

I've worked my nuts off for years encouraging and advising people to moved from Wannabeism to Professional Flying. I'm the nut who thinks anyone can do it and should do it if its in their soul. But life ain't a fanclub or a dream without realities. So be careful, change is in the wind.

WWW

[Grass strip basher]

My goodness two balanced well thought out posts in a row on Prrune... never seen the like before! Well done WWW and JB007 :D:D:D:D;)

[Boing7117]

IATA have their opinion also........

http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/2007-29-11-01.htm

[dartagnan]

"Washington - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) warned the world’s airlines of a severe pilot shortage unless industry and government work together to change training and qualification practices."

"ATA issued a new estimate that the industry may need 17,000 new pilots annually due to expected industry growth and retirements."

----------------------------------------------------------------------
and here my opinion on this opinion of the SEVERE pilot shortage :

USA needs 10'000 pilots a year. remain 7000 pilots for the rest of the world.
7000 pilots for Africa, Australia, Europe and Asie.

this industry trains much more pilots than 17000 pilots required ,so no pilot shortage for the next 5 years.
I would like to be wrong, believe me, but 17'000 pilots is not a lot!

[xbilz]

I recently cleared my class 1 medical and have been looking around to start my ppl. I have opted for the modular route and have been looking around the flying schools in UK (mainly London region). Having read the posts in this discussion from the pilots in the industry, it gives me a headache.

When the market was good, the ratio of job success of integrated students to modular was high. With the market forecasts, I wonder what will it be like for modular students.

I am 31 with a little family (supporting wife & a 6 month) and it took me time to make some money to afford the dream. Modular way I will probably end up qualified at 33 something (say touching 34) !!! If the market remains bleak and I spend 2 years knocking on the airline doors for the first interview ... I will probably end up at 36 years with no dream but a day job and financially screwed !!!

is it likely?? but i just love aviation !!! what to do ??? advice from sensible fellow members !!

[smith]

With the quarter percent drop in interest rates everything will be dandy in 2008!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I very much hope its just a passing problem but Maxjet of Stansted had their shares suspended this week pending clarification of its financial situation. Its a little earlier than normal to see this sort of thing happening but by no means unusual to see an airline go bust by Christmas.

Some of you may be really suprised by just how quickly this business can change for the worse. In the past its been brutal and has gone from feast to famine in a matter of months or days (Sept 12th).

I hope it doesn't happen. I fear it might.

WWW

[Adios]

Correct me if I am wrong, buit isn't Maxjet a relatively new company catering to a niche market?

If so, perhaps it is merely due to the fact that many new businesses fail in many categories, usually due to poor capitilization. This would hardly make its failure proof of WWW's gloomy predictions being accurate.

There are clear signs that recession is looming, but this doesn't mean all the bad news in the industry is caused by recession. Sometimes a failure can be due to bad management, even in good times.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Quite so. But.

House prices are stalling. Consumer confidence is collapsing. Bad debt hammers at the doors of the banks. Things are "very, very tough" on the high street, according to Sir Philip Green, boss of Top Shop.

Meanwhile, Merrill Lynch this week said that interest rates would have to fall sharply on both sides of the Atlantic if central bankers are to help prevent a recession led by rising oil and food prices, the house boom collapse and rising unemployment. They predicted that the economy was on the brink of the first consumer-led recession since 1991.

There's no doubt about it - the panic buttons are glowing red and a nation is moving its jittery fingers towards them.

If it sounds grim, it also sounds familiar - at least to anyone over 35 who can remember the recession that kicked off at the fag end of the Thatcher revolution. After the booming 1980s it left a jagged detritus of collapsing house prices, home repossessions and rocketing unemployment.

Yet there is now a whole generation who haven't a clue what a bust feels like. They only know the comforting boom, boom, boom of the last 10 years, a golden age where credit has been cheap and practically limitless, a second home has seemed more like a right than a privilege and exotic holidays have become the norm.

It was much the same atmosphere in the 1980s. Everyone was either rich, getting rich or thinking about being rich. Harry Enfield's "Loadsamoney" was the symbol of the times. Brickies and tilers and cab drivers all seemed to have pockets stuffed with cash. Dreary little houses in dumps such as Fulham and Shepherds Bush (and larger dumps like Newcastle and Manchester) were fetching ridiculous prices. Plumbers and dope dealers alike drove Beemers, and City traders had fleets of them.

Courtesy of Tim Lot in the Telegraph.


WWW

[no sponsor]

I watched the industry with despair in from 12 Sept 2001 until 2003. I had saved up the money for all of my training and already had my PPL. I decided to carry on in my well paid job, and did distance learning for the ATPLs in 2004 and took a few months off work to complete my CPL/IR in 2005. During 2004, the likes of CTC and OATS made it very easy for young chaps to enter training and virtually held a monopoly on people getting jobs. Everyone who went to CTC, barring a few who got kicked out, got jobs. OATS placed people into BA, as did the other integrated courses. By the time I had finished, I reckoned that the industry had changed significantly and my choice of route was not the best. However, things worked out for me, as my little school had contacts, and I got a job offer on 737s. I was lucky, extremely so. I still know good decent blokes who have nothing, but who were outstanding students.

The big schools adapted well to the changing times at the cost of modular guys. The recent boom has been good for integrated and CTC. Not so good if you have no contacts and went modular. It's very difficult to say what will happen. If you have a well paid job, then stay in it.

For those of you with a young family, think very hard. Even when you get your dream job, the pay is still not so good, and at the end of the day, it is still just a job. Goodness knows how you could survive with big debts to pay off and support your family.

[Jenson Button]

Guys and Gals, I trained in 2000/2001, during the summer of 2001 pilot recruitment in the UK was fairly upbeat and things were going wonderfully well. However there had been a few signs that things were not all that rosy. Fuel prices kept going up, lorry drivers(and myself) were complaining over the cost of fuel (about 70p a litre then, wow that was cheap), there had been the SARS epidemic and Bush Junior with Seniors help was heading for all out war with anyone who didn't like his Texan boots.......Sept 11 2001....BANG. This last factor was the final straw. All pilot recruitment dried up and headed in the oppposite way. The redundancies on the other side of the pond were worse than any horror movie. Just ask some of those guys. We haven't reached a tipping point quite yet. Employment in this country is fairly good (why have we seen the largest rise in immigration into the UK for several decades). Gordon Beige for all his ****e taxes has been fairly cautious in his borrowing and spending, but he did leave a can of worms for Darling Darling who is now spending as if its going out of fashion. Borrowing and interest rates are still pretty low compared to the previous two decades and those coming to the end of a fixed mortgage will be able to take advantage of the latest interest rate cut.

For those that feel lucky and about to spend 70 large on a CPL/IR find out how many are swimming after a job at the moment, I'd imagine it reaches at least 600 odd. Don't forget to add the cost of type rating, plus some time on type and loss of earnings cos you will earn **** all for 6-18 months.

The job market is pretty stagnent at the moment. There is not much movement in UK or Europe. The big aircraft orders over the last 2 years are on the whole replacements with a small bit of expansion. Factor in the 65 retirement age, Then there is not going to be much need for crew apart from natural attrition for a couple of years perhaps ??

Word of advice, polish off the previous career cv and start networking your old non-aviation job. Chances are you will be needing it more than the slim only got 200 hrs guv'nor pilot cv !!!!

Speedrestriction - There might have been a few taken out of CTCs pool, but these guys are only on temp 6 month contracts and if the relevant airline is over-crewed then they will be dropped - maybe look to the Far East and India.

Hasta la Vista

Jenson:hmm:

[dartagnan]

this is what I am doing, looking for non aviation jobs which may pay better and certainly will ,knowing I wont have to spend cash to buy hours with no employment guaranty.

Saving money and wait for the big crash and maybe buy myself a nice house or 2 and sleep and dream well.
Have fun paying your debts!!!!I don't have any...

[shaun ryder]

if flying is your true dream and you have the determination and ability to do it, then there is no reason why you would never gain employment as a pilot.

There are lots of reasons why you may never realise your true dream. The second part of your sentence makes sense though. That is, if you exclude working as a pilot for an airline.

Its not bleak at all the aviation industry is expanding rapidly and will continue to do so for years to come. The UK economy is not going to disintegrate overnight as some like to predict.

I work at a reputable, stable, established and successful British airline with which whom even your Granny will be familiar. There is a recruitment freeze on at the moment, delivery of added hulls to the fleet has ceased, we are overcrewed and there are even murmers of redunancies in the camp. Battoning down the hatches comes to mind.

Yes it will be tough and is a giant financial gamble but the rewards are high and are there to achieve, no amount of posts on a forum should deter you.

Wages are more ample than high. I think the days of the 'jet set' lifestyle are long gone for the majority of us. Its just as much as a struggle, with a family to support on airline pilot wages as it is for the rest of the white collar lot. There are plenty of posts to read which should be able to deter you.

At the end of the day the choices are yours.............If your unsure go and speak to actual people in the industry in person and I’m sure you will get nothing but positive responses.

From an actual person in the industry not in person. Take those rose tinted specs off mate, please try and observe what is going on on the real world for once.

[BitMoreRightRudder]

The CTC holdpool is a good indicator of employment prospects for low hour guys looking for that first airline job. In 2005 when I finished training with CTC from the cadet scheme and was handed over to ezy the wait for the ATP/cadet graduates from finishing MCC/JOC to type rating was 5 days. As we approach 2008 talking to one of the guys at my base who joined in the summer I understand the wait, from the ATP hold pool at any rate, as an average is now nearer1 year - and that is with any airline, never mind ezy. Something is driving this change and just a glance at the global economy provides food for thought. Admittedly this is just a snapshot, and is a focus on only one training provider. But if CTC are struggling to place their people then all is not rosy.

Some posters seem to disagree with the pessimistic tone of this thread but I think WWW's urge of caution is entirely valid. Chill winds are blowing in from the West and now is the time to have that back up plan in place.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

The whole CTC scheme does seem to be backing up a lot. Those waiting for placement are indeed looking at over 12 months. It seems like selection and training waiting times are also extending significantly.

You could see this as a valid indicator and I think it is a far better one than looking at aircraft orders/options which can be deferred and diverted at the blink of an eye. I can think of 3 household name airlines with a recruitment freeze on.

I don't want to totally deter anyone from starting down the Wannabe way but there is a case for a serious pause for thought.

WWW

[londonmet]

Hi all,

WWW your post (number 62 on this thread) sums it up well. People should take head from this.

WRT CTC, they have just shipped out another 15 cadets for one course so they are obviously hopeful this they'll be able to place them in 18 months time. Realistically they'll be looking to place them a few months ahead.

Interesting times.

L Met

[xbilz]

From the views on this thread, I get the idea that the situation will get bad to worse in a matter of time. I piled up every penny I could for this so I won't need a bank loan or fear debts. However, this means that I will be spending most of my savings on the training .. therefore, no house and nothing else !!:mad:

If employers were to judge your "love of aviation factor" for the job then I am sure none would be unemployed today. I gather that there are a lot of unemployed pilots out there and modular guys have further competition against the likes of OAT, CTC, FTE etc. Whether you agree or not, airlines are more inclined towards these FTOs.

I am no quitter but its a huge financial gamble with an absolute blind faith. I am, honestly, deterred by the revelations on employment and further views in this thread and my plane has already been grounded before it could take off...:(

I am in a day job (skilled IT) and planned to do modular so that I keep my job. My concern will be the age factor .. by the time I finish my training I will be 33 or touching 34 .. so if the market goes down next year and recovers in 2-3 years .. i will be a 36 years grandad with 200+hrs .. what chances will i have then???? :ouch:

[p111lot]

wow you read a bit about flying on the internet and have all but given up already! probably best that you dont even bother spending on training, actually have you ever had a trial flying lesson????

[littco]

Jenson Button:

"Borrowing and interest rates are still pretty low compared to the previous two decades and those coming to the end of a fixed mortgage will be able to take advantage of the latest interest rate cut"

Are they really? This may be so on paper, Interest rates 20 years ago where 12-15% where as now they are 5.75%, so yes they are pretty low in comparision.. What you have to remember and most people forget this, the amount of money you can actually borrow now is more than double that what you could borrow 20 years ago!

The average mortgage loan 20 years ago was 2-2.5 times your salary Max , now its nearer 5 times. If you earnt 20k 20 years ago you could in theory only borrow 50k, interest rates where 12-15% and the average interest payment was 6500k per year. Today, if you earnt 20k and could borrow 5 times you're salary, 100k. Even at and interest rate as it currently is you still have the same 6500k interest payment per year! So are we actually any better off? Plus you have to remember that fuel, food and the cost of living is all higher than it was 20 years ago, even taking into account the cost of inflation..

I know this has nothing to do with the original post and sorry from taking the post off, just thought it was food for thought...

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

You are quite correct. Interest rates do not have to go anywhere near 15% to inflict as much pain now as in 1992. The reason is that housing costs have already reached the same straining point as a proportion of net income as in the last crash. With the average wage at £24k and the average house at £194k you can see that house prices are already in excess of 8 times earnings. Which is a higher multiple than needed for the last crash and the USA crashed at a multiple of 6.

In the early 1990's it would be very unusual for anyone under the age of 30 to have a credit card or an unsecured loan on anything other than a car.

There were no self certification (lie to buy) mortgages, no 5 times joint salary mortgages and there certainly were not over 1 million amateur landlords with buy to let mortgages (in 1999 there were 30,000 - by 2007 1,000,000 Buy To Let mortgages were in existence..) .

The profit warnings are coming thick and fast now and discounting on the high street has already started.

Its not looking good.

WWW

[shaun ryder]

Not miserable, I merely like to think that my posts help balance out some of the over optimistic attitudes aired on here. I suppose that you would think that I was a great chap if all my posts were about fairy stories. Sorry to dissappoint you fiveo because it just aint like that. My personal opinion is, that an individual would be less than wise to give it all up now and start flight training. Financial suicide with a family in tow, that is assuming that the person does not have the cash spare already.

'If I dont do it now, I will regret it the rest of my life' You often read this on pprune, fair enough but...

I say if you do start out on the gargantuan road to commercial pilotdom, you might just regret it the rest of your life, along with your wife and kids I suspect. I dont want to be the one to spread doom and gloom, but have you ever thought that it might even be hard for an experienced pilot to get work in the industry at the moment? Just be very wary of the pig headedness and blinkers syndrome which seems to affect people who want to join the ranks of airline pilots. It seems that some simply refuse to believe that what they are doing, might just end up not working out for them.

I wanted to chat about little animals and rainbows today, to show my softer side and ease my sore head. But this is pprune! That just would'nt be right!

Enjoy your Sunday.

[shaun ryder]

No worries, take care and good luck.

[Jenson Button]

Littco and Topslider

I know that its not very pc these days to smoke, but,the "economics" were back of a fag packet calculations. I can't stand Gordon Brown myself either. The very crude assessment of UK situation was slightly tongue-in-cheek :E WWW and others make plenty of very sensible comments. CTC, Oxford and Cabair will paint the rose-tinted spectacle view.

As for my driving, i now drive the most environmentally friendly F1 car....

Jenson

I wish those embarking on training all the very best, its tough, very tough -good luck.:ok:

[Antonio Montana]

Just to say, today's Flight International has a few things to say regarding the slow down.

[Re-Heat]

News on the wires today...


LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Bankers had better get accustomed to flying coach.

As financial firms tighten their corporate travel budgets, oil prices continue to hover near record highs and the risk of a U.S. recession looms, the civil aerospace sector looks set for a challenging 2008, with airlines and aircraft makers vulnerable to fallout from the global credit crisis.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) recently cut its forecast for global airline profitability next year to $7.8 billion from $9.6 billion, with a revised oil assumption of $67 barrel from $63.

In a speech last month in Washington, IATA Chief Executive Giovanni Bisignani warned of potential turbulence ahead for the industry.

"The credit crunch throws a shadow over the economic expansion that underlies our good performance. Airlines are $200 billion in debt and we could be heading for a downturn with little cash in the bank to cushion the fall," he said.

Fuel costs are continuing to climb, with a total bill for the industry of $132 billion this year, more than four times what it was in 2002, according to IATA.

Sometimes high oil prices can be a good thing.

Below a certain level, they provide an impetus for airlines to replace older aircraft with more fuel-efficient jets, and thus help pad the order books of Boeing Co (BA: News, Quote) and European rival Airbus, an EADS (005730: News, Quote) company, said Robert Cullemore, a senior associate at U.K. aerospace consultancy Aviation Economics.

But Credit Suisse analysts warned earlier this week that the oil price has now gone beyond the tipping point "where it could become such a large drag on airline cash flows that financing new aircraft becomes very challenging."

As a consequence, the broker now believes 2007 represents the peak of the cycle for commercial aircraft orders.

To make things worse, Airbus, an EADS (005730: News, Quote) company, is being hammered by the weakness of the dollar because a large chunk of its production and component work takes place in Europe, but its contracts are in dollars. Airbus Chief Executive Tom Enders said last month that the slide of the greenback now threatens the very survival of the company.

"The dollar's rapid decline is life-threatening for Airbus," Enders said. "The dollar exchange rate has gone beyond the pain barrier."

Airbus says each 10 cent decline in the dollar against the euro costs it 1 billion euros in profit.

Slowing economic growth yet to bite
Other factors, such as slowing economic growth and the looming risk of a recession in the U.S., are also darkening the picture. Historically, air traffic growth has indeed been highly correlated to economic growth.

Credit Suisse noted that while the euro zone and the U.S. have recently revised down their gross domestic product (GDP) forecasts for 2008, the downgrades have yet to feed through to airline outlooks.

A weakening of corporate travel demand is also a concern for 2008 as financial institutions, which are prime customers of airlines' business programs, tighten their budgets in the wake of heavy credit-related losses.

"I would expect corporate travel to be negatively impacted by the global credit crisis insofar as the crisis leads to job losses and reduced activity in the financial sector," said Aviation Economics' Cullemore.

He said there may be a "lag effect" because many of the transactions that banks, consultancies and law firms are engaged in were mandated prior to the credit crunch.

"So there may not be any negative effects until spring/summer 2008," he said.

Some airlines, however, are already seeing some signs of a slowdown.

British Airways Plc (BAY: News, Quote) , Europe's third-largest airline, on Wednesday said that while premium long-haul traffic held up in November, it saw some weakness in premium short-haul traffic as corporate customers adjust their travel policy on short routes.

Some analysts also cautioned that long-haul may not hold up in the longer term.

While ticket prices have remained "remarkably" solid so far, Credit Suisse expressed concern of a slump "particularly on long-haul business routes given the profit declines being reported across financial services."

Morgan Stanley also recently examined the outlook for corporate travel in 2008 and found that budgets are better positioned to weather high oil prices than a slowdown in the U.S. economy.

Respondents to a survey it conducted said persistent high fuel costs, economic troubles and potential allegiance shifts, as a result of the "open-skies" agreement, could be "very rapidly reflected in travel budgets in 2008."

Over 50% of respondents said they believe a U.S. recession would impact budgets within one quarter; and nearly 70% of respondents expect negative developments in budgets as a result of persistent high oil prices.

Taking stock of all these negative factors, Goldman Sachs earlier this week cut its earning estimates for the majority of the flag carriers.

Goldman said while the airlines it speaks to indicate no demand weakness yet, bookings don't really take off until after the Christmas break.

"We also believe that capital-market sensitive demand is softening," Goldman said.

At Deutsche Bank, Chris Reid on Nov. 27 cut its rating on Air France-KLM (AKH: News, Quote) (003112: News, Quote) , Europe's largest airline, to hold from buy, citing the risk of a global recession in 2008. See related Air France-KLM story.

U.S. carriers take action
In the U.S., the darkening outlook has prompted several airlines to take preventive measures.

Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV: News, Quote) , Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL: News, Quote) and Continental Airlines Inc. (CAL: News, Quote) said earlier this week they're scaling back plans to add more flights and seats next year.

"We are concerned about growing evidence of slowing economic growth that would inevitably affect passenger demand, coupled with a surge in energy prices," Southwest Chief Executive Gary Kelly said in a statement. See full story.

But it's not all gloom and doom just yet, particularly for the aircraft manufacturers.

Credit Suisse noted that lease rates remain strong, suggesting airlines see short-term capacity requirements. Over the past year, leasing rates for 737 aircraft have increased the most, by about 10%, followed by 767s, at around 8%, according to the broker.

"If this trend is sustained into early 2008, we would see this as a positive for the cycle outlook," Credit Suisse said.

But the broker still warned investors not to be fooled by aircraft makers' bulging order books.

During downturns the backlog often proves to be a highly unreliable guide to deliveries --when the plane makers actually get paid -- since they're often willing to accommodate delays if additional capacity is no longer needed, the broker said.

At the end of 2000, Airbus had almost 450 aircraft on order for delivery in 2002. However, it delivered only 303 because of a slowdown that began in May 2001, and accelerated after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, SARS and the prospect of war in Afghanistan, Credit Suisse said.

[Antonio Montana]

PPL Student,
Call into WHSmiths (or a newsagent that carry's flight) and read Page 26, A Different sort of Downturn. Or you could buy a copy as I do.

[boogie-nicey]

Antonio is there any need to be so blunt..... I'm sure the previous poster could buy Flight International but there's no need to express an opinion and then deny others the reasoning behind it, which is after all only what they were after. Most people engaged in flight training can at least afford to buy a magazine for a few pounds ;) Come on my friend, please .......

[eph6]

Hey Antonio, can I borrow your copy of flight?.... I got no money... I went and spent it all on flying training. haha.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Morgan Stanley has issued a full recession alert for the US economy, warning of a sharp slowdown in business investment and a "perfect storm" for consumers as the housing slump spreads.

This is incredibly serious. All Wannabes at all stages need to be very concerned and prepared for the implications of this. It will effect every UK airline in a negative way. There has never been a recession in the USA that did not result in a period of European airlines going bust.

Once a few go bust or shrink, and it only takes a few, you get a flood of highly experienced highly employable pilots on the job market. Joe "200hr" Wannabe is stuffed by this fact.

WWW

[Pax on the run]

;)Like your last post then ppl student.

[londonmet]

Grim times ahead indeed. Airlines such as easyJet/Ryaniar with a heavily geared background and tiny margins that rely on turnover will be affected the worst as their rapid expansion over the last few years won't have allowed for any form of economic downturn.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Londonmet - I don't share your analysis.

Both companies you mentioned have posted record profits each year for the past 5 years and both have cash balance sheets in the order of £100m in operating cashflow. In an economic recession the LCC's gain business and non-discretionary passengers from the more expensive full fare airlines as staff travel policies are reconfigured for leaner times. Both airlines have extensive domestic operations which again are often non-discretionary, e.g. the only way to get to/from University or see Granny is to fly or face a £350 rail/ferry fare or 10hrs on the road. Both also have significantly diversified market operations, i.e. if the Brit consumer goes on strike they have the Spanish/German/French/Italian/Scandanavian consumer to fall back on, the eggs are in several baskets.

LCC's do indeed have a low margin and high volumes. Yet last week it was Maxjet with tiny volumes of high margin business passengers that had its shares being suspended pending clarification of its financial health. Meanwhile easyJet very very narrowly missed being placed in the FTSE 100 this week.

If there is a big recession and it involved the USA then you don't want to be heavily exposed to the transatlantic market, the business market or the private jet market. Lads will always go on stag do's to Prague or Amsterdam or wherever because the economics of it stack up (cheap beer) and the attractions (girls, drugs) are laid on. Photo copier salesman will always need to fly to that exhibition in Frankfurt. Granny will always need to be visited in Scotland.

It was in the last economic and airline crisis post Sept11th that LCC's ordered new aircraft and entered new markets as other long established (Sabena was the oldest airline in Europe I believe) retrenched or went bust. I expect the same pattern this time.

My advice remains to train slowly, cheaply and avoid high debt levels as you go along. Now is not the time to blow £75k in 12 months in a mad rush to join the party whilst its still swinging. A year ago or more then that was a viable strategy. I don't think it is anymore.

WWW

[londonmet]

WWW,

I agree totally WRT the training aspects of this discussion. The 200 hr newbie will now find it hard to be placed in a "jet job" as recruitment will almost certainly halt/slow down. The desire from these airlines to recruit recruit recruit will be the first thing that stops should the unthinkable happen.

I'm also verse with your figures of both easyJet and Ryanair and also their business model. However, like with anything, large companies will struggle if the economic climate changes for the worst (either side of the pond).
With peoples mortgages becoming too expensive and people having to pay some months on their visa card I doubt that those chaps will still go to AMS on a stag do. They might, but in reduced numbers. Any reduction such as this will affect the P and L account of these airlines. :=

As you say they've produced record figures in the past 5 years. Yes they have. BUT this has been on the back of 5 years of tremendous unsustainable growth in all markets.

As you and I both said earlier it will be an interesting 12 months. WRT to the new starters I personally believe the worst option would also be to blow large sums of money in a short period.

L Met

[Callsign Kilo]

WWW makes some extremely valid points here, and without sounding like I am licking his boots, people embarking upon commercial training would be foolish to not take his points into consideration.

I completed my training in the middle of the year. I am ex-modular who went from zero hours to CPL/IR MCC in over a year and a half period. I jacked in a good career in sales and marketing to persue my dream; and I'm bloody glad that I did because it was one of the most enjoyable and challenging things that I have done with my life to date. But it was a risk, undoubtably.

I think people have to be honest with themselves and understand that this is a very fickle industry indeed. No matter how much the likes of the big Integrated Schools brag on about their employment statistics and the 'Global Pilot Shortage,' a bigger picture has to be taken into consideration. Things change rapidly in a matter of months, if not weeks in the airline world. When I started out at the tail end of 2005, CTC were opening it's doors to a vast number of freshly qualified newbees as their very own courses could not cater for the demands of the likes of EZY et.al. Now this scheme no longer exists and we read of a 12 month waiting pool for existing course graduates. Only a single example, but as we can see, much has changed in very little time.

I'd definetly agree with the suggestion of 'training slow.' Largely because things are changing constantly. I would defintely advise people to be prudent and be prepared to adjust their plans. Maybe a good way to go would be to get your CPL and emabark upon an FIC. As you work your way through your training, you can 'read the market' and make your next big step from there. It would probably be the way I would go about things if I was starting out again.

Goodluck to everyone, and enjoy it. I certainly did :ok:

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Glad we come to the same conclusions regards training.

Regards your analysis of which business models will suffer in a UK recession. If you have 14 blokes looking for a stag do then the ECONOMICS of going to Amsterdam on a low cost airline seat get BETTER the more price sensitive the stag party organiser becomes. The beer is cheaper, the hotels cheaper and the drugs and hookers are cheaper (shut your eyes kids).

They *could* go out for a pub crawl in their home town and not need an airfare or hotel but most people will want a bit more than that for a stag do. A big night out in London or Edinburgh or Manchester or wherever will end up costing MORE money than the equivalent night out in AMS or PRG even without the flights as beer is £4 a pint and admissions to clubs and meals are so much higher in the UK than abroad.

A lot of the LCC product is aimed squarely at the cost concious. In a recession thats the right product to be selling if its aeroplane seats you are seeking to shift..

You'll also find companies, such as Aibus with their Power8 cost reduction programme, find it very quick and easy to change their staff travel policy. In these demanding times Airbus execs are now required to use a LCC on the route if available whereas up to this summer the policy would see them board Air France or any other flag/full service operator on that route.

Get on an easyJet London to Edinburgh any weekday and you'll see nothing but blokes in suits with laptops..

WWW

[Grass strip basher]

In terms of raising the money to fund your training the UK banks have now given their trading updates for the end of the 2007 financial year (HBOS was the last today... shares down 7-8%)..... to summarise the general mood "By 'eck its grim out there"... to put it simply what they are saying is... "we cannot raise money as no-one will lend it too us at a sensible rate so the outlook for loan growth is very poor"..... the cost of those loans you want for your flight training is about to go up (a lot) if you can get a loan at all.

Also the royal institute of chartered surveyors put out their monthly housing market update today... number of UK house sales has fallen at the fastest pace on record. Over 40% of surveyors reporting house price falls

There is a storm coming folks and as WWW says better batten down the hatches! Anyone who thinks 08 and 09 are going to be good years for airline recruitment in the UK please can I have some of what you are smoking.... it must be good :O

[Honiley]

Just to back up what a knowledgable few are saying on this post: TUI Travel Figures released today indicate a £27m loss against Thomsonfly scheduled sector and a strong indication from the present Board that any loss making entity will be, over a period of time, dissolved.

It's a rumour network so, would a correct assumption be that's the closure of DCS / CVT and BOH bases and removal of all B737-300's???

Winter and cut backs go hand in hand...just wait until next year!!!!!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

-£27m from a small fleet of old 737's is a bigger loss than I would have imagined likely. I sense a change of direction from their management. All hopes and plans seem to be leaning heavily towards the 787 and making money on medium and long haul.

WWW

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

This made me smile.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/graphics/2007/12/13/ixd13big.gif

WWW

[RVR800]

Regarding my post on the state of the economy earlier in this thread
It is true to say that interest rates are falling (LIBOR UK-Base)
It is true to say that employment is at an all time high
Its true to say that oil costs have fallen
The UK population rises 500 every day they are not building enough homes since Council house building was suspended many many years ago - that s true as well
There are all true
Dont get too depresed by the media stuff - they love bad news - People that succeed focus on their goals
WWW a few months ago you were saying it was boom bom boom now its all disaster. There is a danger that we all over react - fuelled by media. When WWW said things were extemely good they werent so good and now he is saying that they are bad they are not so bad....
Just trying to keep you all happy for Christmas
I can see the headlines now in the new year - 'Shops have had their best Christmas ever' etc - Easyjet posted biggest ever profit etc etc
:rolleyes:

[RVR800]

Here here
- see my last post

It is true to say that interest rates are falling (LIBOR UK-Base)
It is true to say that employment is at an all time high
Its true to say that oil costs have fallen
The UK population rises 500 every day they are not building enough homes since Council house building was suspended many many years ago - that s true as well
There are all true
Dont get too depresed by the media stuff - they love bad news - People that succeed focus on their goals
WWW a few months ago you were saying it was boom bom boom now its all disaster. There is a danger that we all over react - fuelled by media. When WWW said things were extemely good they werent so good and now he is saying that they are bad they are not so bad....
Just trying to keep you all happy for Christmas
I can see the headlines now in the new year - 'Shops have had their best Christmas ever' etc - Easyjet posted biggest ever profit etc etc

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Hmmm, So JP Morgan issue a report predicting a US recession.

Antony Bolton (Fidelity Special Situations fund manager - most successful fund manager there has ever been in the UK) today says the credit crunch will infect the worlds stock markets like "a cancer". He fears that the combination of tightening credit, increasing pressure on consumer expenditure and falling property prices will have a severe impact on the economy.

Meanwhile the RICS survey on house prices today shows a 4th month of falls with the measure of market optimism being the worst ever recorded by the Institute.


And that's a small part of todays round up. You may think I'm a sheep Rex but my flock is large.

Cheers

WWW

[Grass strip basher]

Rex have you ever in your life time experienced what a credit crunch or banking crisis is like??

Trust me it is absolutely terrible in the city of London at the moment... people are losing their jobs left rights and centre... I agree interest rates will be cut aggressively next year but that will be for good reason... all people like WWW are saying is take off the rose tinted specs because the current upturn in airline recruitment is over. Troops coming back from Iraq will make zip all difference. If you are about to get £70-80k in debt you really need to think much more carefully today than 6-12 months ago.

Libor has hardly moved since the BoE cut rates.... still over 100bps over base rate which is a clear indicator of EXTREME stress in the financial system.

Sorry hate to break the bad news to you but things are bad, Jo bloggs in the street may not realise it yet but the fact that the central banks are having to step in and take action should give you an indication of just how bad it is.

You could ask many many people in senior positions at banks in the UK how bad they think it is and they will tell you the current state of the inter-bank lending market is far worse than 92... banks are not lending to each other so they are not going to be too willing to lend to anyone else over the next year or so. None of this is sensationlism, I wish it was, it is fact (WWW seems well informed). If the UK manages to avoid a recession in the next 1-2 years it will be very very lucky. Commercial property values are already down 10-15% from highs just 4-5 months ago.

I really really wish this was just a city of London issue but it is hard to see how it can be. Yes life will go on it always does but you guys really are not going to know whats hit you over the next 12-18 months if you don't prepare yourselves financially for tougher times ahead. Feel free to PM me if you want to know more about my background and why I am quite so gloomy on the outlook... this is not from reading the Daily Mail... unfortunately i am having to deal with this every day at the moment :sad::(

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I 100% gaurantee you it is on the way Rex.

WWW

[dartagnan]

if forces leave Iraq one day, they will come back once we realize is better to have people killed there than people killed in our city centers(example, attacks in Algeria).

Leaving Iraq is another lie and the only way to resolve this issue is to go there all together(maybe in 2020)cuz so far,after 5 years, the situation is still not resolved and they won't resolve it by just leaving or staying with minimum troops(what we see, is like a palestine-israel conflict which can take years to resolve).

the situation is not so bad like in 1992 or 2001, it is just a slow down due to economic fears of what is happening in the USA by people borrowing to much(US citizen who want everything with credits cards).
less job coming in the future, but more secured jobs.
So keep your money if you have some , wait for 2008, and we will see.

and by the way, if cost of housing falls, that's good for me and for all young people looking for a house.How can you buy a 1-2 millions house anyway when you make 1500-2000 euro/month?prices are crazy in UK!

[Adios]

RexB,

I think he meant it is better to fight on their turf than on ours. As for your last sentence, while philosophically it is true, the practical working out is subject to the demands the citizens place on politicians. I agree the value of a human life, should be the same everywhere (should be is idealistic, aren't equal is the reality), but the accountability to which we subject our government is different when the lives lost in a fight are from our own country. You can say it is hypocritical and disgusting, but then isn't that a mandate for intervention anywhere innocent lives are currently being taken? That is a slippery slope to tread on.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Lets stay on topic folks.

WWW

[londonmet]

Yawn........please can we get back to the topic in hand. Some good discussions were forming!

[sidtheesexist]

Some really informative posts guys - I've really enjoyed reading them - thank you. All the indications are that we are heading towards a major economic slowdown. Therefore, IMHO, all carriers will suffer - less disposable income means less opportunity to travel - esp non business-related travel. Therefore, the prospects for wannabees MUST be bleaker.........

As to whether one type of carrier will suffer more is largely irrelevant. I.E. - suppose it's the flag/legacy carriers whose seat bookings fall off and their pilot recruitment declines - that has a knock on effect down the line due their historical postion at the top of the food chain - i.e. no upwards movement from the regionals/LOCOs ergo less wannabee opportunities.
I think all carriers will suffer in equal measure - the weak will go under. There's already a huge degree of rationalisation being undertaken - this is a further hindrance to recruitment with the likely release on to the job market of many experienced green-bookers......

Without wishing to drift off topic in a major way, the middle east 'situation' does have a direct bearing on the industry and therefore job opportunities - it's absolutely delusional to ignore this fact. I joined BA on 07/07/05. The director of flt ops came in to give us our welcome pep talk on the 8th. He stated that long haul bookings from the far east and across the pond were being cancelled in droves............we all thought that we might enter the Guinness book of records for shortest pilot careers ever!

To all wannabees, the best of British to you all! :ok:

[cortilla]

well it's definitely not all doom and gloom. I was just offered a job this morning in a shiny jet. My history, I have 280 hours total and i start my type rating in january.there are jobs out there kids, but it's a hard slog to get there.

[kj990]

Probably the best thread I've ever seen on PPRUNE, time to post!!

I left the military straight into the last recession, redundant from Air Europe going bust, big mortgage & only just kept the plates spinning. Have since taken a very keen interest in economics for obvious reasons. Ignore the cheerleaders they will talk it up all the way to the bottom. Listen to WWW and a few others who are bang up to date with the info (sorry, can't recall usernames), the outlook is not looking good. I'm flying in what might be considered the safest company to be in but I'm concerned.

The decade of debt and the turning off of the credit tap must have major ramifications, not to mention the state Gordenron Brown will leave us in.

As ever do your own research, sadly I fear the long wave cycle may be upon us because of this mess, it's being mentioned a little to often for comfort. Blame the banks/politicians/city boys whoever you like but Brown has not ended 'Tory boom and bust' and it's not 'different this time'.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

In the USA consumer inflation surged by the largest amount in more than two years in November, led by gasoline prices. The cost of clothing, airline tickets and prescription drugs also jumped.

Their Labor Department said its Consumer Price Index rose 0.8 percent last month. 0.8% times 12 is 9.6% annual inflation and that is a total crisis that cannot and will not be allowed to happen. Anything above 5% would be a catastrophe.

Therefore there is no room to cut interest rates, indeed they may well rise.

Now guess what is happening to inflation here in the UK? Anyone bought a pint of milk, a litre of diesel, a therm of gas, a loaf of bread in the last couple of weeks?

With house prices down 4 months in a row and still falling despite interest rate cuts what do you will think will happen if the Bank of England has to RAISE interest rates?

I am only an amateur economist. I could well be wrong. But right now, things are bad and I think they are going to get a lot worse. I think we will see a recession and house price crash greater than the 1990 one. I hope not. My job would be at stake if this occurs.

I think there is a fair chance it will happen though.

Google "18 yr economic cycle" and bear in mind 1990 was the last UK recession.

WWW

[JB007]

Just to confirm that it will still be steady for experienced pilots for a while, and what is a dramatic turnaround, TCX have an advert going in next weeks Flight looking for type rated FO's, which type I dunno!!!!

[Grass strip basher]

WWW whilst inflation is a concern the UK yield curve is factoring in 3-4 25bps interest rate cuts next year... why? This is because the primary concern the MPC has at present is that the inter-bank market has stopped working in the UK.... this is the "circulatory system" of financial markets in the UK and it suffered a catastrophic heart attack on August the 9th this year... a month later Northern Rock failed as a result... and believe me the situation hasn't got any better since. Inflation is a real concern but at present the stress on the banking system is so extreme that the MPC seem willing to risk inflation to try and improve liquidity and get banks to lend to each other again. They are litterally Sh8tting themselves about this now.... this is a quote from Paul Tucker an MPC member yesterday... this chap is one of the 8 people that meet and set UK interest rates every month.....

"The turmoil in financial markets is not just a 'City' event....the severity of its impact on the real economy will depend on how long the squeeze in credit markets lasts. There is no doubt credit conditions for both households and firms have tightened. We must try to avoid a vicious circle in which tighter liquidity conditions, lower asset values, impaired capital resources, reduced credit supply and slower aggregate demand feed back on each other,"

Does this all matter for you as a wanabee??... absolutely... this is the biggest risk the pilot recruitment market has faced since 9/11 in my opinion and the liquidity crunch is the more acute in the UK than anywhere else in the world).... these events perhaps should drive a greater degree of soul searching than normal if you are thinking about getting heavily into debt to do your training... especially if you have a family that are dependent on you... good luck folks... sunset appears to be fast approaching in this current economic cycle:(

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

TCX may need to recruit... perhaps there will be some First Choice guys only too happy to eject:


First Choice losses widen as job cuts loom

Package holiday operator, set to merge with Thomson, blames financing costs as it plunges further into the red

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/leisure/article1931506.ece


I know the City believes (hopes) there will be a series of rate cuts in the UK next year and that inflation looks less of a threat than a banking crisis. However I believe the banking crisis is unstoppable as evidenced by yesterdays stock market slump in response to the measly $100billion the central bankers were able to muster as an emergency liquidity giveaway. Unless Ben Bernake is going to charter every helicopter in the US there is going to be a banking crisis and SIV's and CDO's won't even be the bulk of it.

My view is that the pound will fall at least 15% early next year at which point imported inflation will soar and we'll be back to 1971. Interest rates will have to rise to stamp out hyperinflation before it takes grip and damn the housing market and never mind the banking crisis.

Stock up on beans, put on your foil hats and take to the cellars!

WWW

[BitMoreRightRudder]

WWW

I think we will see a recession and house price crash greater than the 1990 one. I hope not. My job would be at stake if this occurs.



You really think what we are looking at is so serious EZY would have to shed flightdeck? I know we don't have a seniority list but if we did then I am somewhat further down it than you. I agree, we are looking at seriously bad financial weather going into 2008, I thought however ezy was as safe a seat as you could find right now.

Cortilla

Congratulations and have fun :ok:

[Grass strip basher]

Gosh I thought I was pretty down on the outlook... if what you suggests comes true WWW we may well live to see a re-nationalisation of BA!.... back to good ol' defined benefit pensions... big fat pay packets... maybe its not so bad after all ;)
(note: tongue firmly placed in cheek)
Oh just though I would add data released today by the IPD shows commercial real estate values fell at the fastest month on month rate in history in November... down 4% in just 1 month.... the peak decline in one month in the early ninties crash was 1.5-2%.... put on the hard hats boys and girls...

[v6g]

Personally, although the biggest threat to aviation in the near term is a likely recession, I'm more concerned about the bigger threat in the longer term (5-10 years) - namely the end of cheap oil. The stuff just isn't being made anymore. 60% of oil producing nations (including US, UK, Norway) are in terminal production decline. The forecasts for the energy that supplies the worlds economic growth are increasingly relying on dubious figures from OPEC which many geological professionals (including those who've spent most of their careers with OPEC companies) claim are fabricated and downright wrong.

Ok - so it's probably not going to hit within the next year or two (in fact a recession in 2008-09 will probably taper oil demand and therefore push the problems back a little) but the long-term prospects for aviation 10-20 years away really don't look good.

I've mentioned this a few times in the past on here and have been surprised at the lack of interest in the subject amongst the pilots of the future. Am I the only one concerned about this?

[Philpaz]

Jeez........ This thread is depressing, think i might go buy myself some industrial strength elastic bands and create my own green wind up airliner. I'll call it the Chavliner 2000. Watch this space branson!!

If you were to worry about everything bad thats going on in the world you'd have no time left to appreciate whats good. If its that bad get out now, i'll be happy to use up your carbon footprint for you.
I'm still gonna chase the dream, companies like Airbus and boeing will have contingency plans to keep our shiny jets in the sky.

Use half the pax space to ferry cattle and fit the rest of the seats with bottom suckers while simultaneously force feeding the pax beans.....mephane power!!!

[JB007]

how you can go from talk of redundancies to recruiting in the space of a matter of weeks
Refering to a previous post of mine, this is the strong dynamics of this UK industry...it's awesome and never a dull moment!

[Adios]

Thomas Cook offered voluntary redundancy to senior Captains and got more than they needed. I've heard 1.5X annual pay to leave. It was supposedly done to balance a top heavy roster, but there is prrobably a strong business case for it too. I guess this is what happens in a merger when there are twice as many bean counters running "what ifs" through MS Excel. It might inject some new life into the company by lifting a lot of people up the ladder a notch though.

They are still taking people straight out of flight school. They have cadets in training right now and I won't be surprised if they recruit more low hour pilots as well. You won't see an ad for it if they do because they already know where to find them, so you'll have to keep an eye on the FTO employment lists in January. The fact they want some FOs with time on type and will take the low hour non rated cadets as well does support the rumour that they are roster balancing.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Right. So we have recruitment on a one out, one in basis. So no net growth in the pilots employed. Meanwhile First Choice are talking about redundancies. This is a crazy business.

WWW

[JB007]

There have been no mention of redundancies of flight crew at First Choice or Thomson...

[sidtheesexist]

Philpaz - have you tried taking your entrepeneurial suggestion onto Dragon's Den eh? I'm sure they'd love the idea!!! ;) I love it!!!!! :O

On a more serious note, V6g, yes I share your concerns.........From a purely selfish point of view, I hope I'll be drawing my pension by the time this problem really comes to the fore.Certainly, the current high price of crude is already biting hard.........

[JB007]

Further news indicates TCX will be looking for 40+ FO's to recruit with 10 internal Command upgrades...

40+ type rated guys could be an issue, unless some young Airbus pilots fancy some mixed fleet experience, could be good news for some CTC cadets and might generate some movement in the regional operators if they don't meet the target...

That said, this is just a "snippet" of how quickly things can change, I wouldn't be tempted to go and book an intergrated £75,000 course just yet!

[d2k73]

There are still alot of jobs there. I got a job a week after finishing my training on a B737 which was in the last few weeks with only 230hrs! Now due to start the type rating in the coming months. It's a hard slog alrite but if you put in the work and are determined it'll work out for you!

[Adios]

I didn't post the item about redundancy to demonstrate growth, rather to answer the question asked about how they went from threatened redundancy to hiring so quickly. I would suggest that an airline doesn't focus on growth during a merger, rather efficiency, cost cutting, integration and restructuring. The number of mergers underway supports the generel view of this thread that things are slowing down.

[getoffmycloud]

Blimey P111lot! Been down the pub for Sunday lunch and had one too many?? That was a bit of a unnecessary post.... didn't add much to the debate did it? Makes you look like the tw*t...

[MarcoFF]

Huh, god dammit it's crazy indrustry.

So expensive training and not so great chances to get a job.

Is there any tables/figures exist to show how many new pilots will app. "graduate" per year, and how much new pilots are needed?

But anyways, I want to do it no matter what the figures will show:ugh::ok:

[Adios]

There's really no need for that kind of language. It adds nothing to your post except to make you look like an idiot and one who nobody here would want to fly with!

[boogie-nicey]

Save yourselves, run for the hills.....:p

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

:{With Rightmove showing UK house prices down 3.2% in the past month at least when you get to the hills you might be able to buy a place there..

Oh, and London was down over 6% in a month so maybe you will be just as well staying in the City rather than fleeing to the hills..

The great British housing cash machine just malfunctioned and it looks serious.


WWW

[londonmet]

WWW,


The great British housing cash machine just malfunctioned and it looks serious.

Property devleoper now are we? :ugh:

Unbelievable.

L Met

[ToneTheWone]

I’m not convinced by the 7 year, 18 year or what ever year economic cycle. You can only measure it once it’s happened. But what is fact, is that economies do go in cycles. As we’ve just experienced the longest boom in living memory it doesn’t take a genius to predict what’s around the corner.

Our Gordon has taken the credit (no pun intended) for presiding over our recent economic miracle. An economic miracle that has been fuelled almost solely on cheap credit - and people called him the prudent chancellor! He’s actively encouraged people to get into dept by introducing loans for university education. A change of thinking which has possibly spilled over into aviation.

A large part of the boom has been due to rising house prices, people re-mortgaging, spending the money and keeping the economy going. It certainly not due our making things i.e. cars, TV, cookers etc. Ture we do make some, but most of the companies are forign owned. No so in France, Germany or Italy. Okay a large part of our gross economic output comes from banking, but I’ll be buggered if I know how this money is generated.

People are under the illusion that low interest rates and low inflation are purely a good thing. Not so if you wish to buy a house, as the price is set on what people are able to borrow. Low inflation fails to depreciate the loan as quickly over time and any increase in interest rates has a much greater affect, and for longer. I for one would rather borrow £50,000 at 10% to buy a house than £100,000 at 5% to buy the same house anyday. Okay the interest may be the same, but the capital still has to be paid off. Forget supply and demand, house prices are driven by greed and fear!

How all this will effect the airline industry? I don’t know but if people don’t have as much to spend and they can’t get the cheap credit we’ve all become accustomed to, it can’t be good.

So if Gordon has taken the credit for the boom, will he take the flak when the Browne stuff hits the Fan? I doubt it!

The one bit of good news for the younger wannabees without their own house, is that they may be more affordable in the future.

Happy days indeed.

Tone the Wone:ok:

[Grass strip basher]

Londonmet falling house prices could be an issue for many wannabees... how many have funded training via equity withdrawal or securing a loan on bank of mum & dads house??
The "machine" that has provided the money to banks to generate mortgages over the past 5 years (the "securitisation" or "Asset Backed Securities" market) is broken... kaput.... not working.... closed for business.... 50% of mortgages originated by banks in the first half of this year were funded by this "machine" that has blown up in spectacular style .... WWW is NOT wrong in what he is saying... it might not make nice comfortable armchair reading for the everyday man in the street (or wanabee) who has no idea what a CDO, asset backed commercial paper conduit, SIV etc are or how they can effect his/her life but these vehicles have been big drivers of the UK mortgage market and they are not working at the moment. A fix will be found eventually but it WILL impact everyone and the net result is likely to be slower economic growth = less consumer spending = less holidays/business travel = weaker job market for pilots.... :(
This is acutally one of the most informative and important threads I have seen on Pprune for a while (you said it yourself a few post earlier)... if you are about to take of £70-80k of debt you have to be aware of these issues... especially if you are putting you parents house up as collateral !!

[londonmet]

GSB,

Yes I know all the facts thanks.

WWW is right in some of what she says but like anything one must take it with a pinch of salt. I just don't like the apparant dramatisation "it looks serious". Yes it probably does. However, well informed choices with regards to taking equity from a property won't send you off the rails....unless you opted for a unrealistc self cert re-mortgage with over the top "rental income" that is.

Times are tough, they always have been. However, people must be informed of the true facts that things aren't looking like they'll improve for a while. If anything you'll see a -ve trend on most aspects of everyday life. This in turn, as you pointed out to me, will have an effect on the airline industry.

I am just curious about the effect posts on a forum from knowledgeable people will have on people making decisions about their future careers. It only takes a few posts about how bad it is for people to start saying "jesus, if this is the case then i'll chop starting my training". This is bad and has been witnessed already on this thread.

By all means use this thread as an information source but be careful as to consider the effect it will have on some individuals that's all i'm saying.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I can understand that people here are calling for a calm and balanced debate and that Wannabes need to come to a broad and non-panicked view.

To reach this Nirvana someone has to provide the bearish point of view and highlight the more negative spectrum of current risks. Thats me. Its me because its my genuine view and its me because nobody else much was being a big bad bear and its me because that fact helps stimulate a lot of debate and its a big its that warrants that.

Its not just me being some kind of crank. Although I was being very bearish way back earlier this year my views have since gone very mainstream. For example todays Telegraph has this:


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/12/18/cnrecession118.xml

----------------------------------------------------------
UK recession forecast put at 50-50

Britain now faces a 50-50 chance of a recession next year amid the "toxic combination" of a housing market slump and the fallout from the credit crunch, experts have warned.

The chilling warning underlines the severity of the downturn facing the UK in the coming months. Economists at investment bank Dresdner Kleinwort said the economy faced a major slowdown in the next year, with the worst pain likely to be felt in the first three months of the year.

The bank's chief European economist David Owen said: "We are looking at a toxic combination of headwinds facing the economy.

"The chances of a recession in the UK next year are close to 50pc - as they are in the US."

-----------------------------------------------


Although back in the summer I believed this would be the case all I had was anecdotals plus some fairly esoteric analysis of very early data. But today you have major quality print Editors running pieces like that above. So lets assume, just for a minute, that we do enter a UK/US recession (to consecutive quarters of negative growth) in 2008.

In every other recession there has ever been a clutch of airlines go bust. Another clutch retrench. And sometimes a couple will expand to fill the gap. Pilot terms and conditions usually take a battering. The minute experienced pilots are out of work then Wannabe hiring ceases.

At this moment the schools are all stocked to capacity with people training. Indeed they were fighting over hiring instructors only a couple of months ago. So next year there will be around 500 people churned out by the schools all looking for a first job. If we have a recession and the airlines ALL slam the door shut then the job situation is going to get uglier than ever before quicker than ever before.

You also have the reality this time that this will be the first recession post JAA and therefore there will be an unknown quantity of French/Italian/Spanish/Dutch/Scandy/Lithuanian pilots all out of work with type ratings and adequate to excellent English.

The real kicker this time is that the recession may arrive in combination with a real tightening of credit for people who trained on variable loan rates or equity borrowed against a mortgage. If Mum loses her job in the recession and Dad's re-mortgage rate jumps 40% and they can't meet the new bigger mortgage then young Joe Wannabe might end up seeing his parents lose their home whilst he flips burgers with his CPL.

As I keep saying, my advice in the current climate is NOT to train the quick and expensive way in a rush to secure a jet job asap. Train slowly, cheaply, pay off debt as you go and keep your old job or contacts in the background as backup.

Good luck,

WWW

[boogie-nicey]

As always some thought if not debate provoking commentary from WWW. It seems that the technical aspect of learning to fly isn't really an issue as much as finance and time are. With the economic background about to change now really would be a good time to 'think' about your situation and not just listen to the marketing people at the FTOs who are talking to your ego rather than your mind. Recession or not, common sense will always be a safe bet and you can rest assured that making a sensible non-sexy, non-ego driven decision will pay dividends later. It's very easy to fall into the usual trap "of buy it now otherwise you're worthless" syndrome that we're all plagued with in society but flight training is no small handbag, coffee table, sat nav or dvd box set it's alot more expensive than that.

Alot of people seem to pour scorn onto WWW views but as stated they are the negatively leveraged opinions in this debate and it's upto others to balance those with contrary ones. The mere absence of the later shows how the -ve aspect is starting to take hold at all levels of society, whether banks, business leaders or even filtering down to the chap doing his Xmas shopping on Oxford street.

Perhaps now is the time to re-examine the training priorities and reschedule, after all you need to have the likelihood of a job at the end of it in order for it to work. This can also be seen as a breather and that's no bad thing because alot more people than before can train slower and pay-as-you-go rather than sourcing significant amounts of debt. This will allow more wannabes to have a slightly less stressful time post training knowing that the debt is somewhat more manageable and hasn't mushroomed. If you've got your finger stuck in a sticky debt pie then maybe now is the time to withdraw from it and approach the problem with smaller debt. This holds especially true for the mummy and daddy's remortgaged house lot, that's not cool. If you can renegotiate some or all of it and attempt to reduce it in order to only pay for the training already done then fine. Maybe have a half and half debt where you pay 50% of your training costs by simultaneously working or from savings (pay-as-you-go). Don't scoff at that idea, 50% reduction is debt is a big deal especially when it comes to repayment time. But alas there are those who think working full time and training is too much for them, not so. It's the same degree of sacrifice as most people boast they'll make post training in order to secure an interview/first job. Then why can't you approach your training like that? That way you'll really feel like you've put yourself through something and can only help to mature your life outlook.

It'll also help keep your parents/relatives property safe too. No flight training not aviation job is worth losing someone's home over. Just because an option is there doesn't mean that you have to always take it.

[boogie-nicey]

PPL student, yours seems to be a good plan considering your circumstances and perhaps that's the real issue here, individual circumstances. For those who are stretching themselves just like the property boom years you'll be putting yourself at risk.

With a dry airline market the course cost of being a true contender will go up to as they'll be asking for a Type Rating for sure either privately or with them where you still pay. I doubt it'll stop there neither and you they may start sniffing around for multi crew experience or further time on type. Makes the initial CPL/IR issue look cheap and basic :(

Keep going if you must there's no one saying otherwise but just engage your head at each and every step and always be ready to regress if need be.

[RVR800]

It will all look brighter in the new year. Interest rates will fall and so your training will be cheaper and more people will be able to afford their first mortgage and to learn to fly Oil prices have eased and the middle east is settling down nicely.

Now we just have to deal with usual the end of year doom mongers and were sorted

:rolleyes:

[no sponsor]

ppl_student

If at the end, you still don't have a job, then could you afford to wipe-off the costs and go back to your present job? If yes, then it would be OK.

For some people who go modular or integrated, they don't get jobs (except CTC graduates). You've got to be lucky, in the right place at the right time and know people (or know people who know people, i.e. the right school).

If integrated gets you a shot at BA, then it would be worth it in my view.

[Grass strip basher]

RV800 people are just giving a range of views from a range of different perspectives.
For every "doom monger" on here there is a flight instructor/school with a vested interest in tempting wanabees into diving head first into debt to profit from their "dream" giving a equally unbalanced upbeat view.... there are also those currently going through training who desparately want to believe the market is not slowing (I am in the "in-training" bracket) to those that are already working in the airlines who would strike me to have no personal agenda other that to warn those following in their footsteps of certain pitfalls (the WWW camp?)..... I don't know which one of these camps you are in... and if interest rates fall it is because the UK economy is slowing... interest rates fall for a reason and it is usually the turn in the economic cycle... if you believe that how is that good news?

[LAX]

I have been following this thread with interest.

I am 1 of approximately 25 Captains and First Officers affectively made redundant in October due to base closures in the UK. The company blamed its actions on poor forward bookings due to Mr Beans Air PAX duty, BAA PAX handling charge and fuel price increases. This is not to mention nearly 200 cabin crew that lost their jobs to. Draw your own conclusions, but it is a fact that this winter will difficult time for some operators and will be make or break. On a positive note all of the flight deck had new jobs within 30 days, however our move sideways into other company's stops people at the bottom of the food chain moving up.

And no sponsor, with all due respect, would you really spend an extra 30K on your training on the of chance you "MIGHT" get a shot at an interview to work for one of Europes most stagnant airlines? Think about what you just said? I think your statement equals commercial suicide.

For example, just finished ground school with my new company, half the group was direct entry pilots, the other half 200hr cadets. All the cadets were a decent bunch of guys having to pay for there own initial type ratings, from what I could gather none of them had pots of cash, all training financed. Probably 15% of the cadets were integrated background, now, if I was in that 15% I would be feeling pretty embarassed that I'd spent all that extra money to get the same job as everyone else. Thats not to mention the fact I may have been sent by the school to the USA and been milked to death by the fact they are raking it in with the $2 pound..................i'd be asking for a discount.

Im with other posters, people should carry on training but need to understand that interest charges will eat you alive. Make use of the strong pound while it lasts and dont blow all your budget on initial training - budget after training to stay current, get your first job etc!

[veetwo]

I am not particularly good at interviews and I think the extra money is worth spending for the chance of getting a recommendation and some advice from the school

I'm not gonna get involved with the larger themes running behind this threat but just a quick word of advice. Integrated..modular.. it really doesn't matter. When that all important interview comes along you better make sure you pass it! As many of my friends have found out, it may be the only one you get for months or even years. Do whatever you need to do.. go to coaching, pay for a interview prep course, whatever, but going integrated and getting a recommendation will only get you as far as an interview (if you are lucky) so you're still gonna have to pass one!!

As a footnote, its worth mentioning that the integrated school I went to provided very little assistance in the way of interview technique. They did get me an interview however.

V2

[flutter]

Reading this excellent thread shows the pitfalls in our industry especially when undertaking initial training. To all of you deciding on your route to train read WWW posts carefully.

I trained self improver (modular) and instructed along the way, survived 09/11and came out other end. Next year could be a hard time for the industry full stop.
I certainly am thinking long and hard about changing companies. A safe seat is my first thought.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Just as a matter of historical interest here is a list of now sadly defunct UK airlines:


AB Airlines (ceased operations 1999)

air2000 (now First Choice Airways)

Air Anglia (precursor of AirUK, now part of KLM's Cityhopper division)

Air Bristol

Air Caledonian (2003 - 05)

Air Cordial (ceased operations 2004)

Air Europe (1979 - 91)

Airfreight Express (1999 - 2003)

Air Scandic (1997 - 2005)

AirUK

Airways International Cymru (1984 - 88)

Ambassador Airways (1992 - 94)

Amber Airways

Anglo Cargo (1983 -92)

Aquila Airways

Autair International (precursor of Court Line)

AV8 Air

Bookajet (2003 - 04, to Club 328)

British Airtours (former charter subsidiary of British Airways)

British Airways Ltd (1935 - 39)

BCAL - British Caledonian Airways (1970 - 88, acquired by British Airways)

British Cargo Airlines (1979 - 80)

British Continental Airways (ceased operations 1935)

British Eagle (ceased operations in 1968)

British European Airways (BEA) (1946 - 74, to British Airways)

British European (became flybe)

British Marine Air Navigation Co (1923 - 24)

BOAC - British Overseas Airways Corporation (1939 - 74, to British Airways)

British Regional Airlines (1997 - 2002)

British South American Airways (BSSA) (1946 - 49)

British United Air Ferries

British United Airways (1960 - 70, merged with Caledonian)

British World Airlines (1946 - 2001)

Brymon Airways (1972 - 2002)

Buzz (1999 - 2003, acquired by Ryanair)

Caledonian Airways (1961 - 70 and 1974 - 2000)

Cambrian Airways (1935 - 76)

Channel Airways (ceased operations in 1972)

CityFlyer Express (1991 - 2002)

Court Line (ceased operations in 1974)

Daimler Airways (1922 - 24)

Dan-Air London (1953 - 92, to Caledonian Airways (second incarnation))

Debonair (1995 - 99)

Duo Airways (2003 - 04)

Euravia (became Britannia Airways)

Excalibur Airways (1992 - 96)

Flying Colours (1997 - 2000)

Flykeen Airways (1968 - 2005, to A2B Airways)

Gill Airways (1969 - 2001)

Go Fly (1998 - 2003, acquired by easyJet)

HC Airlines (1978 - 2002)

Highland Express Airways (1984 - 87)

Hillman's Airways (1931 - 35)

Imperial Airways (1924-1939)

Instone Airline (1921 - 24 and 1977 - 95)

Invicta International Airlines (1964 - 81)

Jersey European (became flybe)

JMC Air (renamed Thomas Cook Airlines in 2002)

KLM UK (1980 - 2003)

Laker Airways (1966 - 82)

Maersk UK (1983 - 2003)

Manx Airlines (1982 - 2002)

Northeast Airlines (1951 - 73)

Orion Airways (1978 - 89)

Prime Air (2001 - 02)

Princess Air (1989 - 91)

Red Coat Air Cargo (1977 - 82)

Sabre Airways (1994 - 2001, now Excel Airways)

Scimitar Airlines (1979 - 82)

Silver City (airline) (became British United Air Ferries 1963)

Spartan Airlines (1933 - 35)

Tradewinds Airways (1967 - 90)

United Airways (ceased operations 1935)

Virgin Sun

[ToneTheWone]

Please don't for Emerald. Any more anybody?

Merry Christmas:ok:

[Philpaz]

Not many of those went under in the last recession though.
I'm not arguing a point, in fact i fully agree we are heading in to a storm.
Just an observation from the above stats.

Phil

[boogie-nicey]

There are numerous uncomfortable situations and truths that one is faced with in life. This coming economic debacle is one of them. The previous poster mentioned the local town centre being somewhat busy both day and night, well considering the distortion of the festive period that perfectly understandable. The mere fact that the first big wave has yet to impact people lives I can understand why they're all out spending money with gay abandon. When the first hit is felt they'll batten down the hatches faster than the villagers clearing the street before gunfight from an old western, it'll literally happen overnight. Compound that with the usual Christmas and New Year blues and you've got a strong force pushing things downwards. Then as the first effects of this economic stranglehold take place certain industries will begin to wobble and of course leisure pursuits will be hard hit. As redundancies take shape within streets, neighbourhoods, amongst friends and within families the fear will set in very quickly.

Now don't get me wrong I don't wish to dispense all this doom and gloom, far from it but we have to face reality and accept it hurts. I for one have still got my IR conversion to do and what timing I'm practically screwed to say the least and have actively begun to aim for something else to bring in the money during these lean economic times. Even with a Type Rating it's pretty unchanged in terms of chances and with some line training it's still not better :sad: What I'm saying is that I have taken aviation from the Vanguard to something that's now supplemented with another plan and no doubt over time it'll take over aviation as my source of income and livelihood. All hopes dashed rather than 'DASH-8', get it :p Laughing at the pain guess it helps. Anyway back to the subject matter at hand ....

The BBC has become more of a government mouth piece now than ever before and by doing so is undertaking a great dis-service to the British people. The BBC is in denial about the impending economic situation and treats it as if it's surreal or happening elsewhere, not so. People are being given a false sense of security and thus somewhat departed from reality.
The likes of Evan Davis and other cuddly commentators are relaying a =n inconvience on par with the weather man forecasting a week of cold and blustery weather where at worst your fence might fall down, inconvience. This is far from the truth, every fews months the BBC says "well back in 2006" , "2007", "March of this year" and "October of that year we all thought" or were "led to believe", no that's just the BBC getting their optimistic sums wrong and then attempting to put the blame on the sly politician. It's all there to see yet the BBC loves to blame others when their optimistic almost inpractical view doesn't manifest into reality. Even some delluded fool from the Guardian appearing on newsnight claimed that the economic downturn in 2008 would have nothing more than a slight effect. Shocking denial or just an inabilisty to address the gravity of the impending situation, I'd think both.

These are difficult times and lot of people will be loosing their jobs across the country in all industrial sectors. Of course some more so than others and some regions more so than others. Talking to my cousing at a party only last night (top bod at Ernst & Young) says that the fear is it could last right through 2008, 2009, 2010 with recovery starting only then :(

Who knows what shape we'll be in when the recovery does come about, with other players in the global market we could find ourselves economically demoted as the pecking order is redefined. These aren't the good old days when we could pull over and cool off before setting out again. These days of fierce competition from every corner of the world we are pulling over when we're already laghing behind God only knows how many laps behind we'll be when we finally emerge again. People talk about economic cycles but don't be so naive as to think that there isn't such a thing as political cycle.... the leftists come into power might mean well but utlimately end up ruinging economies and then we are faced with a difficult period where someone has to come into power and clean up, which isn't comfortable neither.

[londonmet]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/7159286.stm

[Grass strip basher]

Oil price through $100 dollars last night in the US for the first time in decades.... GULP! Guess the fuel surcharge on the old club 152 will be going up again!

[mustflywillfly]

Boogie:

Even some delluded fool from the Guardian appearing on newsnight claimed that the economic downturn in 2008 would have nothing more than a slight effect. Shocking denial or just an inabilisty to address the gravity of the impending situation, I'd think both.



Look, I'm not in denial and believe that there may be trouble ahead, I am also sceptical about media input. However, just to play devils advocate for a moment, is it possible that these "experts" may just know a little more then your average PPRune poster?. If so perhaps we should listen up and pay attention.

Anyway, for every one "were all fu:mad:ed" qoute there is always the counter "Ooooh it will be a little rocky, but were ok".

In the meantime my parther and I have decided to sell our apartment pop the dosh in the bank and rent for the time being. Better this then potentialy seeing 40% wiped off the value. Of course, as always, the counter argument is that at the end of 2003 quite a few people did this and then couldn't get back on the ladder because prices sky rocketed.

As for taking the aviation plunge thank goodness I have a plan B! Wouldn't want to be making the jump on a wing and a prayer at the moment. Just in case it does all go very very pete tong.

So who wants to predict when the first major (the sort of thing that makes Jo Public wake up and smell the coffee) will happen? Are we talking this quarter?

MFWF

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Bank runs are a distinct possibility. The ECB dropped 350 Billion euro into the market at more than half a point below base rate just to get the banks through year end. Sterling will be in freefall for most of 2008. Inflation is set to reach 4% in the UK and then you can forget rate cuts. 2.2 million mortgages in the UK finish their discount period this year and will refinance on much stricter terms, in many SVR of 7.2% will be the pill to swallow.

Dixons, PC World, Dolcis, Clarks, Carpetright, SCS Sofas have all put out profit warnings and there is plenty more to come from a dismal Christmas trading period. Britons are tightening their belts and the 18yr economic cycle tells us that this 2008 is 1990 all over again.

Houses have only ever been 7 times earnings 3 times since WW2. Each and every time they went above this they crashed back to below 4 times earnings.

Spains second largest housebuilder had its shares removed from the stock market yesterday having lost 42% of its value on fears of a massive house price crash and recession in Spain.

Now how many households in the UK have the wife working in a shoe shop, a 2 yr discount mortgage and a small holiday property in Spain? Cause they ain't going to enjoy 2008. :{

Buckle up,

WWW

[Peelay]

If the Government and Money Experts can convince enough people that a recession is about to happen then all the people who will be hit the hardest will tighten their budgets in preparation. This will surely contribute to economic downturn, which in turn will lead to a recession.
Could this not be a governmental tactic in order to keep the masses at the lower end of the economic ladder?

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

On the contrary, all government figures and 90% of money commentators do the opposite and try to persuade that nothing is wrong, its nearly over and things are looking better than ever. That is because one is trying to sell you a vote and the other wants your money.

Its when people start seeing beyond both that it gets interesting.

3 housing booms since WW2 saw house prices go above 7 times earnings. Each time there was a bust. Today we stand at 9 times earnings......

WWW

[mustflywillfly]

Assuming a recession is on the way, let us utilise the brain power of the PPRuner.....

Although a teenager during the last recession I am sure that some people utilised the situation to their advantage and made some money!

There must be a way of benefiting from a recession to ones economic advantage. If so, does anybody have some sensible, tried and tested or theoretical methods of doing so.....

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Train as a bailiff is the obvious route.

WWW

[boogie-nicey]

Bailiff Fatpl it is then ...... Not sure I'd enjoy the work though ... :rolleyes:

[Peelay]

There must be a way of benefiting from a recession to ones economic advantage.

Buy to Let Market ?

[Superpilot]

Boogie, you're not thinking properly!!!

Just picture it, a bailiff who specialises in aircraft! :E

[fireflybob]

There must be a way of benefiting from a recession to ones economic advantage. If so, does anybody have some sensible, tried and tested or theoretical methods of doing so.....

I understand that more millionaires are created during times of recession compared to times when the economy is expanding.

[v6g]

I understand that more millionaires are created during times of recession compared to times when the economy is expanding.
- they're made from the billionaires.

[fireflybob]

Perhaps I should have said "first time" millionaires!

[boogie-nicey]

Of course, a bailiff specialising in aviation, but hey wait a minute won't I also become the most despised person in the industry.... oh no.