Sydney Weather Forecasting - Interesting

[blueloo]

I know Sydney Weather Forecasting is a bit of an art (as it is anywhere) - but occasionally I find it very odd.

I just looked out the window towards the west and south (looking at airport) - And I think it looks rather stormy.

I then have a look at the BOM sydney forecast and it says updated at 3:05 pm

A few showers or thunderstorms over the western metropolitan area are unlikely to extend further east. Light to moderate north to northeast winds, freshening near the coast. A weak southerly change tonight.
Precis: Shower/thunderstorm in the west.

I think this is completely different to this mornings forecast - but i cant remember that far back!

Needless to say a look at the weather radar - shows fairly significant weather returns (looks like CBs to me) to the west, moving towards Sydney and the airport.

A quick check of the Sydney Aviation forecast (obvioulsy not all of Sydney but the 5nm radius) shows (10 minutes ago):

METAR TTF METAR YSSY 140430Z 04021KT 9999 FEW045 27/13 Q1012
RMK RF00.0/000.0
NOSIG

TAF TAF YSSY 132228Z 140024
06015KT 9999 FEW035
FM04 03020KT CAVOK
FM10 01015KT CAVOK
FM14 18015KT 9999 SCT025
RMK
T 27 30 28 25 Q 1016 1014 1012 1013

Given that it looks rather stormy just at the moment - will the forecast be correct?

Anyone?

[blueloo]

Oh and I almost forgot - my little cheapo Oregan Scientific Wx forecaster clock, has been forecasting rain too.

And this is surprisingly accurate - should i give it to the Aviation Wx service?




(Now that I have said that - if it isnt correct - I will have a ritualistic burning of plastic and electrodes before throwing it out)

[Duff Man]

Storm looks like its moving NE from Richmond, so will probably stay north of the city (and well north of the airport). Still close enough to derail the terminal area traffic significantly.

[Capt Fathom]

TAF's & TTF's only cover the 5nm around the airport.
Not very useful though when that CB is on the approach at 8 miles! :}:

[blueloo]

A bit slow issuing the 0600Z TTF ........ this is as of 0616Z:

Atis indicates Rain in area - so does radar overhead aerodrome - showing light rain/moisture - although majority of the CB/rain is still to the north.


METAR TTF METAR YSSY 140530Z 03020KT 9999 FEW045 SCT110 25/13 Q1012
RMK RF00.0/000.0
NOSIG

TAF TAF YSSY 140449Z 140606
03020KT 9999 FEW045
FM10 01015KT 9999 FEW045
FM14 18015KT 9999 SCT025
FM00 13015KT 9999 SCT035
RMK
T 26 23 21 19 Q 1012 1013 1013 1013

ATIS ATIS YSSY R 140613
APCH: EXP INDEPENDENT VISUAL APCH
RWY: 34L AND R FOR ARRS AND DEPS
OPR INFO: PARL RWY OPS IN PROG
INDEPENDENT DEPARTURES IN PROG
+ WND: 360/10-15
VIS: GT 10KM
+ WX: RA IN AREA
CLD: FEW 4500
TMP: 25
QNH: 1012

[blueloo]

Last time i think it was a line call between my cheapy weather clock and the BoM.

The weather clock predicts rain again.

Airservices Wx says this:

METAR TTF METAR YSSY 170530Z 03022KT CAVOK 25/14 Q1010
RMK RF00.0/000.0 DISTANT CB TOPS
NOSIG

TAF TAF YSSY 170445Z 170606
04020G30KT CAVOK
FM10 01015KT 9999 FEW030 SCT120
FM14 35008KT 9999 FEW025
FM23 04015KT 9999 FEW030
FM04 04020G30KT 9999 FEW030
RMK
T 26 23 22 20 Q 1010 1012 1013 1013

The weather radar yet again shows fairly decent build ups to the south moving north. If they maintain their course and continue to build I would suggest we may cop a good TS.

The Standard forecast says this:

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
New South Wales

SYDNEY FORECAST


Issued at 4:15 pm EDT on Saturday 17 November 2007

Warning summary
Nil.

Forecast for Saturday evening
Fine. Moderate northeast winds, fresh near the coast, slowly easing.
Precis: Fine.


Anybodies thoughts ?

[SIUYA]

blueloo...........

From: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDN65156.shtml

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING for LARGE HAILSTONES and DAMAGING WIND

For people in parts of the ILLAWARRA, SOUTH COAST, SOUTHERN TABLELANDS and ACT Forecast Districts.

Issued at 4:52 pm Saturday, 17 November 2007.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce large hailstones and damaging winds in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Bowral and Braidwood.

The warning information seems to suggest that the storms that you're watching aren't predicted to reach Sydney.

[WELLCONCERNED]

Sounds like some parts of "the system" are not collaborating.

Reminds me of an amusing little anecdote from our North American compatriots:


It was autumn, and the Indians on the remote reservation askedtheir new Chief if the winter was going to be cold or mild.

Since he was an Indian Chief in a modern society, he had neverbeen taught the old secrets, and when he looked at the sky, hecouldn't tell what the heck the weather was going to be.

Nevertheless, to be on the safe side, he replied to his tribethat the winter was indeed going to be cold and that the members of the village should collect wood so they would be prepared forit.

But also being a practical leader, after a few days he got an idea.

He went to the phone booth, called the National Weather Serviceand asked, "Is the coming winter going to be cold?"

"It looks like this winter is going to be quite cold indeed,"the Meteorologist at the weather service responded.

So the Chief went back to his people and told them to collect even more wood in order to be prepared.

One week later he called the National Weather Service again. "Isit going to be a very cold winter?" he asked.

"Yes," the man at National Weather Service again replied, "it'sgoing to be a very cold winter."

The Chief again went back to his people and ordered them tocollect every scrap of wood they could find.

Two weeks later he called the National Weather Service again.

"Are you absolutely sure that the winter is going to be verycold?"

"Absolutely," the man replied. "It looks like it's going to be one of the coldest winters ever."

"How can you be so sure?" the Chief asked.

The weatherman replied, "The Indians are collecting firewood like crazy. That's always a sure sign"!

[bushy]

The NZ farmers used to look for fine weather when it was time to cut the grass to make hay. They needed sun to dry it before it was baled.
One farmer always went and asked his maori neighbour Hori, for weather advice before mowing his hay, and it wprked fine.
One year he asked Hori again for weather advice, and the reply was "don't know"
He said "what do you mean you don't know, you always knew in the past?"
Hori replied "the radio's broken."