Virgin Blue To Operate Embraer's On Albury-Sydney Route.

[NIGELINOZ]

Just read in the Albury newspaper the Border Mail that Virgin Blue will begin
operating it's new 78 seat Embraer jets on the Albury-Sydney route as from the new year.
They will of course be competing with Qantas and Rex for passengers on this route and as I am not employed in the industry I would appreciate the
views of those who are as to whether there is room on this sort of rpt route for a third operator,or and here's something to think about could
V Blue be positioning itself for a partial takeover offer for Rex?
I'll be interested to read your views,many thanks.

[forgetabowdit]

My view... well all i reckon is that regardless of the news, I bet they would have liked to announce it themselves rather than the local rag doing the job!
Love it!

Virgin to buy rex! Sh%t i hope not... Not even virgin has enough money to loose trying to turn that sinking ship around... unless they are to shut it down...:E

ok, im being a w@nker now, ill stop it :ok:

[Going Boeing]

Can anyone with access to performance data of both the EJ170 and Q400 work out the estimated flight times? I believe that the difference would be in the order of 5 minutes.

It would leave REX's SAABs out in the cold wrt flight time and seating capacity.

[NIGELINOZ]

My next question is why V Blue have apparently ruled out competing against Rex on the Albury-Melbourne run.Not being in the industry I find
it strange that Rex is the only airline that flies Albury-Melbourne,Qantas
flies Melbourne-Albury but not the other way.
Surely there would be enough "feeder traffic" out of Melbourne to places
like Adelaide,Perth etc for a low cost carrier such as V Blue to make a
return on the Albury-Melbourne-Albury run?
But as I say I'm not employed in the industry,just a student pilot.but I am
interested in hearing about the economics of rpt routes like this.

[Kiwiconehead]

Qantas
flies Melbourne-Albury but not the other way.
Nope - only MEL-ABX flights are in the winter when they can't get into Hotham. MEL-ABX and bussed to Hotham. They do heaps of Sydney to Albury.

Back in the good ol' Southern days the question of Melbourne - Albury used to come up often but the reply was that the numbers never worked.

[NIGELINOZ]

Nope - only MEL-ABX flights are in the winter when they can't get into Hotham. MEL-ABX and bussed to Hotham. They do heaps of Sydney to Albury

Thanks, Kiwiconehead,My mistake.

[chainsaw]

To be fair to 'the local rag' (the Border Mail), it's front page story was about a $6M Albury airport terminal upgrade 'as Virgin set to announce new service'. I guess that the Border Mail felt it's........umm...........'premature announcement' was fair game under the circumstances. :)

The article also went on to say Virigin Blue headquarters in Brisbane refused to comment yesterday (Monday) but chief executive Brett Godfrey is apparently set to make an official announcement on Friday.

Source:
http://www.bordermail.com.au/frontpage/?date=30/10/2007 and also at
http://www.bordermail.com.au/news/bm/local/993998.html

The Border Mail article included information that Albury is:

among the first to emerge a winner from 20 possible regional centres from Emerald to Devonport that are being considered by Virgin Blue.

Going Boeing's pretty much spot on the money I'd say with the estimate of time difference between EJ170 and Q400 (provided of course that the Q400 overcomes it's recent u/c problems..........but that's another story) leaving REX with some pretty big problems in putting its SAAB340s into direct competition with EITHER of those aircraft types. So, 'yes', Albury and it's SLF are both winners from the point of view of choice of EJ170, Q400and SAAB340 aircraft on the SYD - ABX route, provided REX decide to remain a competitor!

[Mr. Hat]

The turbo prop killer..

[grrowler]

Three words - Jet Like Speed....
Passengers won't even tell the difference:ok:

[Capt Basil Brush]

Three words - Jet Like Speed....

Unless the Q400 has a normal cruise speed of M.78 (450 - 470kts depending on alt etc) its pure false advertising.

Although I think the early Citation's only did 350 or 360kts, so they could be right in that case.

[Roost]

PAX sees PROPS

-

PAX jumps on JET

[Mr.Buzzy]

Garbage...... PAX see price!

bbbbbbbbbzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzbbbbbbbbbbbbbbzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz zz

[43Inches]

Does speed matter when congestion forces you to minimum cruise speed and hold at BIK.
It will be interesting however to see what schedule and frequency VB operates on this route.

[grrowler]

Of course this is generally true. However most people I know would pay an extra few bucks for either - 1. the novelty of the "big jet" that's now flying into their thriving country town, 2. the perceived added safety of the jet over the "twin cessna", or 3. the ability to through book bags to their final destination. Whether the premium people are prepared to pay is enough to make the operation successful remains to be seen.

[SM4 Pirate]

Does speed matter when congestion forces you to minimum cruise speed and hold at BIK.Jungle jets won't be holding at BIK:}

[THE ORACLE]

Profitability (meaning long term success) in all regional markets requires the right combination of both schedule frequency and ticket price. Although historically Albury was services by Ansett Express flying F28's, they did so on a single route licence with a combination of expensive fares (compared to today) and poor frequency.
Today Eastern and REX provide excellent frequency and very competitive fares. So if DJ wants to play, strategically they are going to have to either offer the same price and service or on a reduced schedule (compared to the competitors) attempt to 'cherry pick' the morning and evening 'business commuter' peak loads and then redeploy the aircraft for the rest of the day. The EMB170 and Q400 cost about the same ($23-24Mill (USD) each) to purchase or finance and regardless of the business strategies, will need to be deployed into ports where they can eventually turn a profit! The stage length SYD-ABX is too short to justify a Jet unless the operator either has a monopoly or in a competitive market, can carry near full loads with comparatively high ticket prices.
Due to the combination of a short stage length (for Jet operations), manoeuvring requirements of SID's and STARs and the perennial en-route speed reductions and holding requirements associated with ABX-SYD the time difference between Jet and Prop (Q400 and Saab) will ultimately not be great enough to defeat the other customer expectations of price and frequency.
Until the market finds it's own level all this will make for an interesting 'ride' for all concerned!!

[Mr. Hat]

and the difference is that VB will actually have crews to operate the service....they'll be familliar with it to having operated it in formr lives with eaa or rex.

the end is near

[Normasars]

Buzzy
Touche. Give that man a cigar:ok:

P.S. How's Mrs Buzzy and Jnr Buzzy?
Ggrowler,
People I know will vote with their wallets. And do you really think pax look at these a/c as "twin cessnas"? Give me a break. These types ie DHC8 and SB340 have been servicing regional OZ very successfully and reliably for years.The pax are a little more savvy than you give them credit for.
With Interest rates going north and the price of crude at record levels,and the obvious flow on effects this has to EVERYTHING, now more than ever, it will be a "price centsative" market. They will book the cheapest fair possible.

[FoxtrotAlpha18]

Three words - Jet Like Speed....
Passengers won't even tell the difference

Except in SYD where you exit via an aerobridge from the Embraer, while the Q400 pax have to 'Dash' across the tarmac.

[ABX]

Dang, didn't get to see the 'Albury Sun' yesterday. Looks like I've got some reading to do.:\

I hope we do see Q or VB doing ABX-MEL one day.:ok:

[teggun]

I am surprised that so many people think the Embraer won't be able to compete with Q 400, I just read an article in Australian Aviation stating Embraer have just sold its 300 th E jet in a 43 month period.

It has firm orders for another 700 odd and options for 750 as well, it has been sold to over 40 operators in all parts of the world.

Surely Qantas can't be the only airline out of these 40 other operators able to make correct aircraft selections.

Also I can't believe Virgin didn't do the cost analysis on the E-jet in comparison to the Q 400, if the Q 400 had such a cost advantage don't you think they to would have gone for that option. :ok:

[puff]

teggun I totally agree, however one would have thought at the time that AN and KD would have done the same with the CRJ too!

The Jets vs Prop thing for me doesn't add up in this day and age, if there are 2 airlines operating people do a search and book the cheapest, the travelling public in general wouldn't know the difference between a Q400 and a E-Jet, but if it's $20 cheaper(with free water at least) on QF on the Q400 i'm sure they will still have the numbers, and surely A-B same route the Q400 has to be cheaper to operate?

It will be very interesting I do agree, especially when we're talking QFlink vs DJ where rex will fall into the equation with Saabs?

[teggun]

Puff, I think things are about to get a little tougher for REX.

['aveagoodknight]

Never underestimate the power of Gossip in a Country Town.

:ok:

[THE ORACLE]

Teggun,

GD is on record over at QF stating that QF-Link can't compete with REX due to their (REX's) lower fixed and direct operating costs. Notwithstanding the REX crewing issues discussed in other forums, if both DJ and QF-Link decide to operate brand new $23-24Mill aeroplanes into ABX and have a price war in an attempt to buy the market, REX will be able to outlast them both on whatever below cost fares DJ and QF-Link use to cut each others throats.

If your do the research you will discover that REX is well into a fleet re-equipment project replacing older equipment with as new Saab 340B+WT's. These aeroplanes have new leather interiors, ANC (so the cabin noise and vibration levels are the same as a jet) and extended wing-tips for significantly improved hot and high performance. REX did a 'bulk buy' with Saab and have acquired these aircraft at very cheap rates. All this adds up to making for a very interesting contest with the passenger ultimately being the only winner!!

[NIGELINOZ]

I have found all the replies to my initial post very interesting and look forward to an official announcement from V Blue about the actual services
they intend offering,however whilst on the subject ,may I relate the
following experience.
Recently I had to see a client in Melbourne and booked at return flight with
Rex for the 10.20 am service at a very reasonable fare of $96.00,I was
surprised however on boarding to find that I was one of only 12 passengers on the flight,this was a Friday,mid morning flight,not peak hour I admit but it left me wondering how can Rex operate that service based on those passenger numbers and make a profit on that airfare?
What would be the total cost to run that flight based on those numbers,
any opinions ?

[THE ORACLE]

NIGELINOZ,

Your example nicely describes the point I was making in my earlier post. With REX's cost base, particularly as they own outright many of their aircraft, they may have broken even on your sector to ML with only 12 of 33 or 34 seats occupied. In contrast, neither DJ with a new 78 seat EMB170 or QF-Link with a new 72 seat Q400 will cover the fuel bill for a SYD-ABX sector with only 12 passengers at $96.00 (including Govt. Taxes, etc). At the end of the battle, victory will go to the operator who bleeds the least amount of 'red' on their profit and loss statement. With RPT you publish your schedule and fare and then carry whoever turns up on the day. Did you fly back from ML with REX and if so, how many pasengers flew with you on the return flight?

[NIGELINOZ]

Oracle.Thank you so much for your input,your posts make very interesting
reading for someone like myself who,as only a student pilot ,has little knowledge of the economics of rpt routes.
To answer your question,I returned on the afternoon service out of Melbourne and I would estimate the aircraft was about three quarters full,
but being a Friday afternoon service I would have expected it to be even busier.If Rex can make a profit with these sorts of pax numbers why does it appear that they are having trouble retaining their pilots?Is it just poor
employment conditions?
Thanks again for your help.

[Mr. Hat]

Ah Nigel dont ask that!

Victory will go to the company that can retain staff not train or hire - retain.

[Howard Hughes]

if there are 2 airlines operating people do a search and book the cheapest, the travelling public in general wouldn't know the difference between a Q400 and a E-Jet,
Agreed the general public may not know the difference, but the business travellers certainly do and they are the ones who always make or break any regional service!:ok:

[THE ORACLE]

Interesting comment Howard!
I don't know what regional markets you frequent, but in my observation most business travellers flying regional services are in small to medium business and very keen to save a dollar when they can and the bulk traffic (VFR) absolutely choose their carrier based on price and schedule.
I agree with your comment about the corporate 'high flyers' who may train their PA's to spot different aircraft types from the published schedule information and book their travel accordingly, but their numbers are definitely in the minority on most regional services.

[apacau]

(Once) daily flights to Port Macquarie announced today.

[plane_gone]

VIRGIN BLUE ANNOUNCES DAILY JET SERVICES TO PORT MACQUARIE AND FARES FROM $69*
FLYING START - FIRST NEW REGIONAL PORT TO GET E-JET FLIGHTS!

1 November 2007: Port Macquarie, Australia: Virgin Blue Airlines today announced it will launch flights to the New South Wales city of Port Macquarie from February next year^, following an extensive year long review of more than 21 airports around Australia.

The airline made the announcement and launched $69* launch fares between Port Macquarie and Sydney, during a flying visit to the city with the brand new EMBRAER E-170 jet aircraft that will be used on the new route.

Virgin Blue recently took delivery of the first of 20 of the Brazilian manufactured aircraft which will give the airline the opportunity to start flying to more regional Australia destinations, such as Port Macquarie.

The flight was greeted by Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Transport & Regional Services and local MP Mark Vaile and Port Macquarie-Hastings Mayor, Councillor Rob Drew.

Mr Vaile congratulated Port Macquarie-Hastings Council and Virgin Blue Airlines on working together to establish a long term commitment to the region.

“As Virgin Blue enters the Port Macquarie market, air travellers will not only get a more competitive environment but further opportunities will undoubtedly come about as Council pursues the full upgrade of the airport,” Mr Vaile said.

“Virgin Blue is undertaking a significant expansion of its fleet. They recognise the benefits associated with growing regional routes like Port Macquarie and they have worked closely with council and the community in coming to a mutually beneficial outcome for its long term commitment to our region,” Mr Vaile added.

Virgin Blue Chief Executive Officer, Brett Godfrey, said, “We are excited to announce Port Macquarie as our first new destination to benefit from the introduction of the E-Jet to our fleet family. Our team has conducted extensive research and site visits to determine the most appropriate new destinations for our network and those ideally suited to these aircraft. Port Macquarie is a fantastic choice due to its airport terminal facilities, the need for competition, tourism growth opportunities and its supportive and enthusiastic council.”

Port Macquarie-Hastings Council has agreed to upgrade its runway to accommodate the E-Jet services in the long term as the aircraft are larger than the turbo prop aircraft currently servicing the city. Virgin Blue’s E-170 has 78 seats while the slightly larger E-190 has 104 seats.

Virgin Blue will launch flights between Sydney and Port Macquarie from 4 February 2008 with a direct daily service.

A special launch fare is now available of $69* one-way on the internet and is on sale until Friday 16 November for travel between 4 February to 15 March 2008 and 29 April to 26 June 2008. Everyday low fares will start from $109, up to 20% lower than the existing fares on offer in the market today.

Brett Godfrey continued, “This will be the first time that the people of Port Macquarie and surrounds will have a jet aircraft service. The E-Jet is an outstanding aircraft, very much like an executive jet, which offers travellers a quiet, comfortable ride, two abreast seating and a quick flying time between Port Macquarie and Sydney of just 40 minutes.”

He added, “We are looking forward to bringing some serious competition to the Greater Port Macquarie region and generating lower airfares and more tourism and business opportunities in the same way we have done with other regional centres such as Coffs Harbour.”

Virgin Blue will announce other new E-Jet destinations in coming weeks and months, with a number of centres under consideration for future Virgin Blue services. The remaining EMBRAER jets will be delivered to Virgin Blue over the next 18 months generating more opportunities for additional new ports.

The Virgin Blue team flew in to Port Macquarie especially to make the announcement and offer a “meet and greet” of the E-Jet to members of the Port Macquarie business and tourism communities. Team members dressed up as Robin Hood, Maid Marion and the Merry Men, highlighting the message that Virgin Blue will be coming to the region to steal from the rich (our fair share of passengers from the other airline) and give to the Port Macquarie community in the way of affordable fares and robust airline competition that it has been deprived of until now.

Brett Godfrey said, “We anticipate the competition will be inspired by our announcement of impending services to offer their own more reasonable fares and we applaud them for that in advance and look forward to keeping them honest when we begin our flights to Port Macquarie in February next year. The beauty of competition is that it’s a win-win for the community and for consumers and we can’t wait to add Port Macquarie to our expanding national route network.”

Virgin Blue has invested more than AUD $850-million in the fleet of new EMBRAER aircraft which will have dual benefits in terms of opening up new route opportunities, as well as providing flexibility and additional frequency on existing Virgin Blue routes. Virgin Blue is the only large commercial airline in the Australia to operate the E-Jets, which will take on a number of routes that are currently serviced only by turbo prop aircraft.

Connections will be available from Port Macquarie via Sydney to Adelaide, Brisbane, Melbourne and Canberra.

^ Subject to regulatory approval

[Howard Hughes]

Oracle, most business travellers I have met are either government employees or work for large multi-nationals, on average I suspect this would cover around 50% of all midweek regional travellers! These people generally pay the fully flexible fare and more concerned with convenience and travelling at times which suit them, rather than cost, provided the schedule suits, they will fill those jets, business people love jets! End of story...:ok:

[THE ORACLE]

“Virgin Blue is undertaking a significant expansion of its fleet. They recognise the benefits associated with growing regional routes like Port Macquarie and they have worked closely with council and the community in coming to a mutually beneficial outcome for its long term commitment to our region,” Mr Vaile added."

I don't think that QF-Link will have much to worry about with DJ only providing one service per day! The hidden costs of upgrading airport facilities and including the provision of full checked bag screening for jet operations will unfortunately be borne substantially by the good citizens of PMQ.

The sector length SY-PMQ is around 180NM and therefore far too short to afford any advantage to a Jet aircraft over QF-Link's DHC-8's. Conversely the Turboprop will operate this sector and any other sector out to 350NM far more cheaply than the Jet. At the end of the day the customer wants a consistently cheap fare and frequency as well as in-flight service, so this is going to be very interesting!!

[THE ORACLE]

Howard,
I just saw your last post... and am delighted to see that you agree with most of what I have said. I am curious, however, are you in business, regional aviation, or some other line of endeavour either in or out of aviation? As for me, I am actively involved in the regional aviation business and have been for a very long time.... so let's agree to disagree and let market dynamics do their stuff!

Incidentally when the RJ 'craze' commenced in the early 1990's in the US, aeroplane salesman coined the nice little phrase of 'prop avoidance' to inculcate in the minds of regional aerplane purchasers that passengers preferred Jets.

In order to test this notion to see whether they needed to change to Jets, several large European regional airlines conducted exit surveys on their business customers, which was easy to do as nearly all regional activity in Europe is day return business flying. At the end of these surveys the Europeans concluded three things, ONE the business traveller demanded a quality product, consistent OTP and low prices, TWO the European business passengers didn't care whether the aircraft was a Jet or a Prop so long as the first set of criteria were satisifed and THREE Americans are very gullible people!!

[Howard Hughes]

My most recent experience has been with regional airlines and while it was a reasonably small market that I worked in, I have not seen anything in other States to change my mind. I have spoken to a number of smaller companies in the search for that 'perfect' position and they all seem to rely on Government and/or major companies as the mainstay of their businesses, or to develop new routes!:ok:

[opsflyer100]

Having done the SYD-ABX flight a few times on the SAAB and Dash and recently flown on the VB E170 to CNS - there is only one winner. The E170 leaves the rest standing

[THE ORACLE]

HO HO HO – IT’S OFF TO ALBURY WE GO!
JINGLE JET! VIRGIN BLUE ANNOUNCES $69* FARES
2 November 2007: Albury, Australia: Virgin Blue Airlines today announced it will launch flights to the city of Albury^ after a 12 month evaluation process. The team made a flying visit to the city in the new E-Jet to make the announcement, dressed as Santa and his Elves bringing an early Christmas present of $69* launch fares and an executive style jet aircraft service to the people of the Albury-Wodonga region.
Virgin Blue’s validation team and commercial team members conducted numerous visits to Albury over recent months to ascertain the viability for Virgin Blue to begin services to the region. Albury was included on a short list of more than 20 regional airports around Australia under consideration following the delivery of the first of 20 new EMBRAER E-jet’s direct from Brazil.
The aircraft is slightly smaller than Virgin Blue’s existing 737 aircraft which means a plethora of new destination options, low fares, competition and affordability for more regional communities across the country, including Albury.
Virgin Blue Chief Executive, Brett Godfrey, said, “Albury was a clear front runner from the moment our team touched down there due to the enthusiastic response, its demographics and existing airport facilities. The EMBRAER E-Jet is ideally suited to markets of this size and we are very much looking forward to bringing Virgin Blue flights to the people of Albury for the first time.”
Virgin Blue worked in close consultation with the Council who were an enthusiastic campaigner and supporter for additional air services.
The airline will launch flights between Albury and Sydney from 5 February 2008, offering an immediate double daily service for the convenience of both Albury and Sydney Guests.
Brett Godfrey continued, “Our research has indicated that a jet aircraft service is highly desirable and top of the “wish list” for travellers so we have listened to these needs and will launch with not just one flight but two flights a day and we are hopeful of getting our fair share of support in return.”
To celebrate the announcement, Virgin Blue has launched a “Ho Ho Ho Jingle Jet” fare of $69* one way on the internet on sale now until 16 November 2007 for travel between 4 February 2008 to 15 March 2008 and 29 April to 26 June 2008.
The airline will initially launch with a Sydney-Albury service and will closely monitor demand for that route before evaluating other potential new routes in and out of Albury.
Brett Godfrey added, “The E-Jet will usher in a new era of air services for Albury, we are keen to banish the days where regional centres are only serviced by turbo prop aircraft and we are adamant that in centres like Albury, travellers are just as deserving of high quality, efficient and affordable flights as capital city commuters, whether they are travelling for business or pleasure.”
The flying time between Albury and Sydney will be approximately 40 minutes and Guests will have the option of either an aisle or window seat in the executive style 2x2 leather seating configuration.
Today’s announcement came hot on the heels of yesterday’s unveiling of Port Macquarie as a new E-Jet route also from February next year.
The E-Jet will also provide Virgin Blue with greater flexibility and the ability to increase frequencies on existing routes. Along with brand new destinations, it will also allow the airline to re-enter the high frequency Canberra-Sydney route from February 2008.
Virgin Blue will continue to evaluate other potential new ports for the EMBRAER to service with the 20 aircraft being delivered over the next 18 months.
Brett Godfrey finished, “This is the beginning of a new and exciting phase and Albury is the first of many new ports that will benefit from the increased competition as Virgin Blue continues to expand its route network.”
Virgin Blue will offer connections from Albury via Sydney to Adelaide, Brisbane, Canberra, Hobart, Melbourne and Perth.
^ Subject to regulatory approval
DJ's schedule will offer the following:-
SYD-ABX 0930 (1040) and 1530 (1640); ABX-SYD 1110 (1205) and 1710
(1805).
Let the Games begin!!

[NIGELINOZ]

Thanks Oracle,Interesting,but as someone who regularly visits clients in
Tasmania why would I want to fly V Blue ABX-SYD-HBA?
I might as well continue doing what I do now.
Rex from ABX-MEL and DJ (V Blue) MEL-HBA..

[SIUYA]

NIGELINOZ

I think Kiwiconehead provided the answer to your dilemma of the single carrier on the ABX-MEL route in post#5

Back in the good ol' Southern days the question of Melbourne - Albury used to come up often but the reply was that the numbers never worked.

So if REX remains the sole carrier on the ABX-MEL route, then maybe it's because the numbers seem to still indicate that they're still not sufficient to justify another carrier?

BUT, as Virgin Blue's announced that:

The airline will initially launch with a Sydney-Albury service and will closely monitor demand for that route before evaluating other potential new routes in and out of Albury.

then it would be unwise to say that ABX-MEL is completely out of contention at some future point. :ok:

[greenslopes]

very good.

[KRUSTY 34]

THE ORACLE,

Agree with you 100% on the operating economies of Turbo-props vs Jets over these sector lengths. Also, experience has shown that a once daily jet service may not significantly impact on an established Turbo-prop operators greater frequency and o'nite advantage. Ballina being a dramatic case in point.

But Mr. Hat is absolutely correct. Without crew it all becomes a little academic. If DJ are indeed looking at introducing 24 of these aircraft, not to mention the crew replacements on the 737 fleet, not to mention V Australia, not to mention Jetstar, not to mention Qantas.......,

Well. I think we all get the picture.

Oh, and my sources tell me that REX management have given intructions that no Albury services are to be cancelled. In 12 months time, the way things are going, REX might be still able to service Albury. As for the other ports??????????????????

[THE ORACLE]

Hullo Krusty 34,
Well said and I think we all understand that pilots and engineers are the pivotal and critical resources around which the entire aviation industry turns!

[fritzandsauce]

It would be interesting to see how this affects the REX/VB baggage aggreement? VB will want the pax to travel with them on the SYD/ABX route if there connecting from another VB destination!

[THE ORACLE]

fritzandsauce,
perhaps you should have a look at the SYD-ABX-SYD schedules for both REX and DJ for your answer! DJ are offering two return services daily at VFR rather than business sensitive times of the day (a morning service at either 0900 or possibly 0930 and a mid afternoon service at 1530) whereas REX (and EAA for that matter) offer four return services daily between 0635 and 2015. It seems that at least initially there will be plenty of scope to move many more PAX across the schedule spread and carry the bags within any existing baggage agreement, assuming of course REX decides to continue with the agreement after DJ commence ABX operations!!

[ABX]

...commence ABX operations!

What? I don't even need an operation!:}

[THE ORACLE]

ABX.....very clever response....so I'll change the last word to 'services' which I hope will draw a similarly clever response! Seriously though ABX, you may well be an informed person located in the beautiful city of ABX and if so, do you have any thoughts on the impending airline 'stoush' in the ABX market??

[ABX]

G'day Oracle,:ok:

Most of the rumours I encounter are written for me right here on PPRuNe.:}

I have often pondered the ABX-MEL route, I figure that the pax numbers just don't support an additional carrier. Perhaps DJ might try and force Rex off the route at some stage.

If someone was to leave from my house and fly Rex ABX-MEL and then commute to my Nan's house in the Western suburbs, and at the exact same time I set off to drive to my Nan's place, they would be lucky to beat me by 30 minutes. If we change the destination to my friend on the far Eastern suburbs, I could beat them there no problems and without speeding.

I guess most people here know that and therefore the route has fewer patrons. Also a ABX-MEL-ABX fare costs about $200 where as the family commodore will cost about half that for the same trip, with 5 pax and max baggage!:8

As for baggage handling I guess Rex will have to honour their contracts and 'suck it up'.

Cheers,

[ABX]

Well the jungle jet is now flying daily to ABX and I must say it is nice to see the return of an RPT jet service to the area.

As yet I have not heard or read whether the flights have been heavily booked or otherwise.

Have you heard anything NOZ?

Cheers,

ABX:ok:

[KittyBlue]

Those SYD-ABX are pretty busy. The flights I have operated they are about 60-65 of 78 seats sold. The guest on board are alittle happy to hear flight times of 30 mins compared to 45-60 mins on the props.

[ABX]

Hi KB,

How is it landing the jungle jet at YMAY? I'm guessing that your landing weight is not that heavy, do you use much of the rwy to get her slowed/stopped?

Personally I'm glad to hear that the new service has been well patronised. REX and QL have been sticking it to us for years. $200 to fly to SYD? You have to be kidding!

Cheers,

ABX:ok:

[KittyBlue]

Many of the landings are reverse thrust free, just foot braking. Fantastic glide into the airport.

[Skystar320]

The turbo prop killer..

The Q400's piss all over those EMB-170 type aircraft. At only 70seaters its far more economical to operate a turboprop on selective routes where the speed doesnt really pay an advantage

76seaters are what 26seats more than the litertally 10's of CRJ50 / ERJ aircraft that are being parked.

[Howard Hughes]

The Q400's piss all over those EMB-170 type aircraft.
From a cost perspective the 400 may win out, I think the Embraer has far more 'passenger appeal', especially on the all important SY-CB route!:ok:

Although the Embraers are being used on some routes against the 400, many of the routes are longer sectors that are just to skinny for a 73.

[ABX]

SS320, last time I read your posts you claimed to be a policeman. Now you are a Airbus 330/340 type rated aviation consultant.

Date of Birth: October 17, 1980
Age: 27
Licence Type (eg CPL. Pilots only): CPL / ATPL
Current a/c Type (eg B737. Pilots only): A330/A340
Location: FL310
Interests: Commerical Aviation, Vollie Firefighter
Occupation: Aviation Consultant

When did this happen?

[plane_gone]

Personally I'm glad to hear that the new service has been well patronised. REX and QL have been sticking it to us for years. $200 to fly to SYD? You have to be kidding!

Cheers,

ABX:ok:

When was the last time you looked at fares to SYD?
Both REX and QF have had many specials available even as low as $74.
If the flights fill up, of-course the price of seats goes up, even today both airlines have $109 fares available. So your comment about REX and QF sticking it to the people of Albury is just plain wrong.

Cheers.
:=

[ABX]

p_g,

You're entitled to your opinion.

Rex and QL have matched the low prices of DJ on this route now that they have put the jungle jet on it. Try buying a ticket close to the departure date and see how much the ticket is. I have travelled ex-Albury for 20 years and $200 is pretty much the price.

If you don't think my message that the increased competition will give me cheaper fares then that is your opinion.

Back to the Rex marketing desk for you eh?:=

[apacau]

Now if only Brindabella would lower fares on CBR-ABX...

[ABX]

It took me a while...

p_g = SS320.:ugh:

[plane_gone]

If you think that DJ arn't going to charge $200 for seats to Syd also, then you must be living in a fantasy world. Stop drinking the water from the Murray and you might be ok.

It took me a while...

p_g = SS320.:ugh:

err... I don't think so! but think what you like.

Cheers.

[ABX]

Well if DJ start charging $200 a ticket then I will consider them to be sticking it to the locals as well.

Your arguement has turned around, first you don't think Rex and QL have been sticking it to us, now you think DJ will be joining them in sticking it to us...

I guess that means we are saying the same thing!

Cheers,

ABX:ok:

[Hugh Jarse]

Those SYD-ABX are pretty busy. The flights I have operated they are about 60-65 of 78 seats sold. The guest on board are alittle happy to hear flight times of 30 mins compared to 45-60 mins on the props.

Bollox!

30 mins requires an average ground speed of around 490kt point-to-point. :}:} and that don't include manoeuvring in the SY Terminal area.

Many of the landings are reverse thrust free, just foot braking. Fantastic glide into the airport.
** Pictures Fred Flintstone using his feet to stop the aircraft **

Give us a break Kitty Blue :ugh:

[ferris]

You don't think an avarage groundspeed of 490kts is achievable in a jet, Hugh? Why is that?

[Capt Wally]

I spoke just today with someone in authority at YMAY & it's known to be 48 mins in the jungle jet, AY-SY, no doubt to allow the Capt to finish his cuppa:)
490 kts is a bit ambitious, not unachievable obviously but certaintly not planned. I've flown a Lear 35 @ up to mach 0.8+ (planned at 380 kts) & you don't get around 500 kts TAS never lone G/S unless it's favourable. I doubt the Jungle jet cruises at that unless pushed (could be wrong), besides it's a short sector. Take in clb, being right royal stuffed around at SY & you have an hour lasped before you can turn yr Mob Ph back on !:)
Anyway beats the 'boat planes' & it's sexy:E


CW

[roamingwolf]

You can't lump pax into one bag.the business pax will be happier if the flight is quicker and more comfortable and they don't care about the price because a lot of them are not paying for it themselves.
the holiday pax though will go for the cheaper tickets whether that is a greyhound bus,a train or an aircraft.

[Hugh Jarse]

Ferris, of course I know jets are capable of such speeds. The point I was making is that 30 mins just ain't gonna happen. As Capt. Wally wrote - 48mins. Now that's believable :)

[ferris]

OK, but the reason you gave for poo-pooing the idea of 30 mins was 490 G/S not going to happen (at least thats the way i read it).
Sure, 30 mins is ambitious, but not because of the groundspeed (as you are obviously aware). I reckon if it was teed-up (AY dct 5 mile final, no speed etc), 30 mins wheels up to wheels down could be done! Sounds like a challenge! Any takers?

Capt wally- AY- SY is going to be favourable most days- yes? Watched a jungle jet grounding at 550 yesterday (with the wind), and the wind was nothing special.

I'll still fly Rex- the staff are great.

[Capt Wally]

'ferris' 550 kts is very achievable but it's rare esspecially on a short sector where the jungkle jet is likely to climb to say FL280 for that short trip where winds & TAS would be less than higher up.
I heard one just today getting onwards clearance from ATC for FL280 enroute to SYD. So assuming that's a typical crz lvl & based on say 10 mins for CLB to that LVL covering say 50 nm's & a decent profile of 2X CRZ height meaning another 10 mins for decent covering say another 50 nm leaving around 140+ miles for crz. That's assuming that it's pretty much direct to SYD (which it would rarely be) Crz at 450 kts (still ambitious most days planning wise) that makes for a crz of around 18 to 20 imns. All this adds up to close to 40 mins for the actual flight time alone, AY- SY. Not to mention the taxi time both ends & any holding. Pax only want to know the elapsed time once they are in the plane.

Besides as long as the jet is quicker which ot would be then pax have gotta be happier.

'roamingwolf' yr quite correct there, mum & dad flyers will go by horse & cart if it's cheaper but the airlines really on make good money from the business market, & the jet will smell of business men/women all day everyday given enough frequency:)


CW:)

[Jay Bo]

I got 2 tickets on albury sydney leg @ 109 a piece for vb. The three airlines all had the same price

[kellykelpie]

I think Mr Jarse's point is that 490kts "point to point" is impossible. Anyone that thinks it is consistently possible into Sydney must be kidding themselves. You would have to average that groundspeed including climb, descent and approach - I don't think so.

As for trying to set a record by using it as a benchmark - I think it might be safer to catch the train.

[ccysam]

Did the flight today. Flight time 40 minutes. Sy-Ay. Block time 1:01 with all the taxiing at SY.

[THE ORACLE]

DJ's two flights per day are a 'toe in the water' exercise to test the 'temperature'. Krusty 34 in an earlier post was correct when he said the only way to seriously contest the ABX (and Port Macquarie) markets would be for DJ to overnight an ERJ in those ports to chase the business market, which would require a large investment decision as the first flight location of an RPT aircraft in part determines the overall daily flight schedule. With many more ERJ's on order however anything is possible!

Any scale up of services in either the ABX or PMQ market will spark a price war with the encumbents. Customers will win out in the short term through cheaper short-term fares and frequency. The losing operator typically will have highest costs and be unable to sustain deeply discounted fares for an extended period. Over short stage lengths such as SY-ABX and SY-PMQ Props beat Jets on costs every time!!

Chock to Chock time ABX-SY-ABX for the props averages 65 minutes so there is no real saving on such a short sector with a Jet and thus any 'contest' will come down to fare price and schedule frequency! QED!!

[KittyBlue]

Let me elaborate. Flight time as noted is airtime not taxi time. Another flight and the we did land into sydney on R34 with a airborne component of 32 mins. Can not get better than that from ABX-SYD. SYD-ABX airborne times around the 35min.

[KRUSTY 34]

Was that after the usual overfly Kitty, or did ATC direct you straight to left base?

[rodmiller]

they have been flying there for the past month or so

[KRUSTY 34]

rodmiller, I am aware that DJ have been flying into AY for the past month!

My question refered to the approach for "R34" (sic) at Sydney. This is because the manner in which ATC process traffic to 34R (correct terminology), can have a significant effect with regard to track miles in the terminal area.

Kitty, you are a DJ pilot and not some P/R type in disguise?

[flyitboy]

'KB' I think you will find that the flying public don't give a stuff about flying time they just want to know how long it will take to fly from A-B once they are strapped in. When the door is closed to them that's when the clock starts ticking!
'ccysam' would be spot on as would 'CW', 40 mins flight time & an hr elapsed time from sit down to get up on the AY-SY run! The 'cattle' just want to get there & as fast as possible, 30 mins is dreamtime !:)


F

[ozangel]

Hey, ease up on kittyblue. Does it make you feel big to belittle someone trying to contribute? I don't know him/her, but so far on this thread, he/she is one of the few with factual information in posts as opposed to hearsay. I hear New Idea are looking for applications to fill a couple of senior editor positions - maybe some of you should apply - might be more money?

Regardless, from the sounds of it, they are filling the planes, and theres some good PR coming from it as the Albury folk seem to appreciate the jet service, and the competition.

[ABX]

Hear hear ozangel! Well said.

And thank you KB for your input.

*or woman, as appropriate.

[KittyBlue]

My fur seems to be falling off me.

I must say thank you for those who have included me in the discussions.

As per 'KRUSTY 34', my position in VB is not important. And it was direct approach 34R (apologies for the typo) on that day, being such a lunch time flight the airport is a little less strangled.

'Flyitboy' the passengers onboard have a keen interest in physical flight time and I don't disagree that flyers need the exact timing from close of door to parking at the gate.

At the end of the day... the seats are filling and I have my job.

[apacau]

Hear hear Kittyblue, keep up the good work. Good to hear ABX is doing OK for VB and here's hoping they might look at the MEL route down the track too, though not sure on how realistic that is!

[KittyBlue]

The best way for the company to make those descisions ( like the ADL-BME seasonal) flights is to consider the connecting feeder service MELSYDABX rtn and if its constant and the right price is attracting passengers then it is doable. So fingers crossed for those who would like to see MELABX direct.

[wirgin blew]

Is it really worth flying to MEL. By the time you drive to the airport, check in, clear security, etc, you would have pretty much used up close to the three hours that it takes to drive. That doesnt even take into consideration any delays, holding by ATC, etc.

I can't see VB wasting an aircraft on this. There are surely other routes that would be more lucrative.

[flyitboy]

'oz' I have re read the posts that might have a neg impact on KB & I couldn't see one that was derogatory, insulting in anyway. These are all opinions with some accompanied by facts/personal experiences, no more no less! Maybe yr reading into the posts a little too much, besides 'KB' doesn't seem to be too offended:bored:


F

[KittyBlue]

I was offended to a degree and I appreciated the sentiment of others. Thou as we are anon here I will accept it less personal than 'airline geek' emotional chat.

Hey as for those who connect from MEL at present there seem to be more from ADL,OOL and BNE on board.

[KRUSTY 34]

Yes kitty.

But you didn't answer my question. Is there a problem with that?

[KRUSTY 34]

Apparently there is!

[flyitboy]

'KB' I'll say soz here seeing as what I said may have upset you, wasn't what I wanted to do in the first place. I was just trying to get my views across from experience that's all. Pax in any form of transport just want to get there, as far as they are concerned once aboard any transport they would be thinking lets get this show on the rd, or in our case airborne. Just that planes are now no more exciting than riding a boring bus these days. It's just another form of transport. In fact if I have to pax on a plane it bores me to tears & I love flying (doing it myself) so can't imagine what it must be like for the gen public esspecially 'suit' types who have would take little pleasure being cramped inside a tube & fed stuff that supposed to represent food!
I believe it now takes longer to fly say ML-SYD these days than it did some years ago 'cause it's lack luster & no longer exciting for the pax so hence their all doing it causing the obvious & on the cheap!

F

[grumpy greyhound]

pax see real professionals sitting up front wearing ties and caps so they will take a dash just ask Mark and Trev.

[THE ORACLE]

I'd have thought this thread would have had more lively discussion as it is about the 'prop' versus the 'jet' argument.

Current indications are that despite a few early ABX flights that were full with the $1.00 fare payers the average 'Jungle Jet' loads SYD-ABX-SYD seemed to have settled down to around 30 pax per sector, which on a 78 set aircraft is a load factor of 38 percent on fares around $109.00!!

As the 'jungle Jet' costs USD $24 million per copy and jet fuel is currently costing around USD $107.00 per barrell, all this activity for no profit must be making for some interesting discussions in the DJ board room OUCH! Does anyone know how the 'Jungle Jet' is going in the Port Macquarie market against Eastern and what the comparative loads have been like?

[ccysam]

I don't know where you are getting your information from. I've done quite a few sy-ay-sy flights now and all have had 50+ pax, some 70+.

[KittyBlue]

Yes, Albury services has had major support from the Albury community. Loads are 50-70 as noted by ccysam.

With the two services a day, they are complimented with the other rex services provided. Makes a very well used regional airport.

[Spotlight]

While it is a common misconception that a bringing in a Jet will dominate a market and 'break' the existing operator; History tell's otherwise. Sometimes people bite off more then they can chew.