Shortage of Pilots May Ruin Small Airlines

[Hugh Jarse]

(Contains some of the well-known Rex press release)

Shortage of pilots may ruin small airlines


Steve Creedy, Aviation writer | October 10, 2007


AUSTRALIA's biggest private regional carrier has warned that a looming pilot shortage will lead to more flight cancellations and help drive smaller airlines to the wall.
Regional Express said yesterday that Australia was facing a pilot shortage that would turn into a crisis for regional carriers in as little as 12months as demand for staff by bigger carriers intensified.
The regional carrier estimates Australia will need an additional 1800 pilots over the next two years but is likely to train less than half that.
It warned that this could result in some regional centres losing their air services, problems for emergency services such as the Royal Flying Doctor Service, and more smaller airlines going to the wall.
Rex chief of staff Jim Davis said some airlines were already struggling to find enough pilots to crew their regular schedules and were being forced to cancel flights.
Mr Davis pointed to Transport Department statistics showing that Rex cancelled 0.9 per cent of its flightsfor July, while Qantas cancelled 1.6 per cent, Qantaslink 1 per cent, Virgin Blue 1.1 per cent and Jetstar 0.3per cent.
"The Rex cancellation rate, for example, is now running at four times historical levels," he said.
But he said the situation was expected to get far worse, and carriers in regional areas would bear the brunt of the problem as major airlines intensified their raids for staff.
The smaller operators had no defence against such massive recruitment and were in no position to match the salaries and conditions of their bigger counterparts.
"Over the last three months, more than 20 per cent of our pilots have been poached by Virgin, Jetstar and Qantas and I am sure the situation is similar or worse in other regional carriers," Mr Davis said.
"It is almost too late to avert some of the disastrous consequences in Australia of the looming pilot shortage, as it takes at least eight months to train a new pilot."
Rex has moved to address the shortage by starting up a cadet scheme that will train 40 people a year and Mr Davis yesterday called on the federal Government to subsidise training for young aviators.
Training for a commercial licence costs about $80,000 and airline chief pilots have identified this as a major impediment to recruitment.
Qantas has also moved to revamp its pilot training and encourage more young people into the industry, while Transport Minister Mark Vaile has ordered a report on the issue and hasbeen talking to ministerial colleagues about including pilot training in HECS.

From The Australian.

[Jeps]

Transport Minister Mark Vaile has ordered a report on the issue and has been talking to ministerial colleagues about including pilot training in HECS.


Better late than never I suppose. Finally some financial support for young people wishing to enter the industry. If I (an 18 year old) can think of the concept of subsidizing training then why has it taken so long?:*

[Aussie]

Supply vs Demand, thats why. Until recently, supply outnumbered demand!

[Jeps]

Maybe a bit of foresight perhaps?

[Andu]

If Bob'orke was still Prime Minister, there wouldn't be a problem. He'd just drop on down to the RTA (or CES!) and grab a couple of dozen bus drivers and quickly glorify them - and have the problem solved in a jiffy.

I can't see what the problem is, because I can distinctly recall this (deep intake of awed breath) esteemed Rhodes Scholar blithely inform the Australian public some years ago ;) that flying was dead easy and anyone could do it, so a quick 'sortie' by 'Bob' to the local CES and he'll have saved the day yet again.

[Mr. Hat]

People weigh up pros and cons.

If you look at what people for most regionals get paid in comparison to other sectors and how wages in the pilot market have travelled over the past 10-15vs the increase in cost of living and training its hardly a surprise. If the wage increases were consistent with increases in other industries then people that REALLY want to fly for a living will somehow scratch the money together in order to live their dream.

GOVT- Subsidizing the training costs as opposed to removing prohibitive taxes and fees on operators in the long term will only dilute the quality of candidates that come thru the ranks. In other words you really have to want "it" to work three jobs 6-7 days a week and repay your flying loan over a number of years whilst working for under 30 k in GA for up to a decade.

OPERATORS - Want quality and lots of it? Better Terms and Conditions. Retain staff, attract staff. Swallow the pride, unpuff the chest: the pilot tree is nearly empty.

[flyhardmo]

I'm still wondering where the shortage is. 4300hrs,loads of Command on turbines. sent out a load of Cv's and only recieved one reply. Sent to Virgin and jetstar over 2 months ago.

[Icarus2001]

One very important question that isn't being asked is that with all the BS sprouting forth from Rex about pilotage shortages where is the AFAP or ANY OTHER professional pilot association? Where is their counter media release? Putting our side of the story?

Hello Laurie anyone there?

Whenever the federal government make a statement on health issues the AMA are right there with a comment and soundbite for the media, where are OUR PAID representatives huh?

[bizzybody]

:mad: im sick of seeing these threads

[Howard Hughes]

Sent to Virgin and jetstar over 2 months ago.
Despite a pilot shortage, you still need to pursue the company you wan't to work for! The people I know who have been getting jobs, update their applications regularly, usually monthly, but some as often as weekly.:cool:

Simply putting in a resume and waiting for the phone to ring, just doesn't work, well not often anyway!;)

[five dogs]

One very important question that isn't being asked is that with all the BS sprouting forth from Rex about pilotage shortages where is the AFAP or ANY OTHER professional pilot association? Where is their counter media release? Putting our side of the story?

Hello Laurie anyone there?

Whenever the federal government make a statement on health issues the AMA are right there with a comment and soundbite for the media, where are OUR PAID representatives huh?


Lawrie's around at my place having a red or two.
Reckon he'll be throin up in me pot plant again later on. :yuk:
Give him a break, he only earns around $200K+ a year, what do expect from him, work 2 days a week? :(

To all me pilot friends out there, ring up old mate lawrie and tell him what you really want. I need a good giggle and so does he!! :ok:

[Peter Fanelli]

I'm still wondering where the shortage is. 4300hrs,loads of Command on turbines. sent out a load of Cv's and only recieved one reply. Sent to Virgin and jetstar over 2 months ago.


Obviously you're "overqualified".
Isn't that a word that's used too much these days.

[flyhardmo]

Obviously you're "overqualified".

so its really a case of a shortage of under qualified pilots then :ugh:

[ennui]

Mr Hat,

I think that you are on the correct track.

Undoubtably with the erosion of Terms and Conditions in Australia due to an oversupply of Professional Qualified Pilots in the last couple of decades, the attractiveness of an Aviation career has decreased.

My belief is that reducing the financial burden for budding new pilots will do nothing to alleviate any perceived pilot shortage. Those individuals who are considering any career will primarily look at renumeration and life style.

What has aviation to offer these days? An income at the top of the tree in a couple of decades that will not even allow your children access to a good private school let alone paying a mortgage, taking the occasional overseas holiday and buying a new car! How about lifestyle issues? How many people would prefer to be home every night and have weekends off?

Notwithstanding the above, as aviation protectionism is decreasing and the market for pilots becomes global, there are many experienced people from troubled, unsecured and dangerous countries who would be more than prepared to live and work in Australia.

I have it on excellent authority that one of the first people employed for Virgins 777 International operation is a South African. After employment I am told that he immediately contacted lots of his compatriots and advised them to expedite their Australian residency process!

There is undoubtably a current shortage of pilots around the world. As a friend told me some time ago there are more aircraft being built than pilots being trained. Employers and manufacturers recognise this. Responses by the industry to date include extending mandatory retirement ages, lowering entry requirements and utilising technology in building aircraft that are smarter, easier to operate and intrinsically safer.

Making a pilots licence easier to afford in order to alleviate the current shortage is an experiment with no gauranteed outcome.

Allowing more non-national pilots residency in Australia will combat a shortage (if only in the short term) as well as allowing employers to once again keep a lid on terms and conditions.

It's been done before and it is only a matter of time before it happens again.

[Cpt Link Hog]

AKA...We are finding it a bit tough to find new pilot's who have to put up with Crap T & C's and this will make it hard for us to compete.....Boo Hoo why would you stay flyen a Scab on 40k when you go fly jet on double the $$ ???
Maybe the cheepest part of an airplane won't be the pilot anymore
Any operator who offers a good mix of lifstyle and coin with always be able retain staff

[KRUSTY 34]

flyhardmo,

Tis' the calm before the storm!

Jim Davis knows this, and has said as much in the press release. Notwithstanding the blatant omission of the true reason for the shortage, and the disgraceful misinformation and spin purported by REX mangement, the writing is now well and truely on the wall. And they know it! Whether they are prepared to do what is necessary, indeed what should have been done months ago, remains to be seen?

Either way, the number of pilots quoted, needed by the major airlines over the next 2 years would require every available candidate in this country, and then some!!!

Be patient. Unless you have 2 heads, or are stuck on a mountain somewhere, they will more than likely seek you out before long. Now that Mr Davis, will be poaching! And it will be ruthless.

Sadly for REX and the other Regionals, we aint' seen nothin' yet.

[Checkerboard]

"Over the last three months, more than 20 per cent of our pilots have been poached by Virgin, Jetstar and Qantas and I am sure the situation is similar or worse in other regional carriers," Mr Davis said. "

Funny that Skywest has none of the "regional carrier" problems that Mr Davis talks about. While they are having problems finding people that meet their requirements for expansion plans I think the number of people that have left in the last year could be counted on one hand and still leave a few spare fingers!

And the reason? They look after there staff, and have a good CA. Mangement actually listens to the pilot body. Maybe you could learn a thing or two Mr Davis?

[Mr. Hat]

Ennui,

Short term plans indeed. Poor greedy decisions that made GA harder than it needed to be. Getting rid of towers selling off airports introducing fees left right and centre. Whilst some of these were fair enough others weren't due to the size of our country and the small number of tax payers (people need the bugsmashers).

I understand that training is expensive I'm still paying it off but i think making the industry a bit more attractive (from 152 to 747 salaries) to school leavers will attract people in a different way to reducing the cost at the outset.

An inlaw on reading the article asked me "why a shortage now?".. i said "Boom+Expensive houses+Stagnant Pilot salaries= Enrol in teaching."

[Wiley]

I have it on excellent authority that one of the first people employed for Virgin's 777 International operation is a South African.I can confirm this.

[neville_nobody]

Despite a pilot shortage, you still need to pursue the company you wan't to work for! The people I know who have been getting jobs, update their applications regularly, usually monthly, but some as often as weekly.

Simply putting in a resume and waiting for the phone to ring, just doesn't work, well not often anyway!

Yeah sure that works at a GA level but Virgin specifically tell you NOT to ring them. You can update on Staff CV but that doesn't get people looking at your resume.

I personally feel that the ridiculous recruiting methods being implemented at present are part of the reason why they can't find the people they want. If airlines actually screened EVERY resume sent to them then maybe they would be able to find some suitable applicants. The business of getting internal reccomendations works great in small companies but when you are recruiting large numbers of people you can't recruit consistantly like that.

However to do things properly would mean employing staff something which airlines seem adverse to in this day and age.

[teresa green]

On a trip around Australia earlier this year, and visiting many airfields had it on good authority that the airlines are actually ringing up pilots with about 400 hrs. Yes 400 hrs. Different to my day, where we were treated with disdain, and mucked around no end.

[chief wiggum]

I notice that Mark Vaile has launched an "inquiry"into why there is a looming pilot shortage.

Any chance that it WON'T be an episode of "yes minister"all over again, and that some pertinent questions TO THE RIGHT PEOPLE will be asked? or is this another government paper that gets a result that the employers(aka lobbyists) want?
Any chance that an ex minister, now employed as a board member on a regional airline is laying down "the guidelines"for this enquiry ? Especially when said ex minister holds a considerable number of airline shares.

Mark Vaile is as ignorant as management. NOTHING will be achieved, and more importantly, NOTHING be achieved quickly... which means that companies will be free to import and exploit overseas and young pilots... again.

re getting a response from VB ??? I waited 6 years I updated continuously, I even emailed them to make sure that there was no problems. I had people put in "blue stars" for me. They FINALLY were gracious enough to offer me an interview... TWO WEEKS after another dom carrier offered me a job!!! Naturally I have pointed out to VB that although I would have been very happy to work for them.....get stuffed (in a nutshell).

RIP australian Aviation

[KRUSTY 34]

Interesting point Clancey, RE: DJ and that other Aussie carrier.

Methinks they should get their act into gear, if for nothing more than a hold file. Hopefully not like the Qantas fiasco, as that will serve them no purpose.

"He who hesitates is lost"

[Mr. Hat]

Teresa, its amazing isn't it. What i still can't get over was the way we were treated way back when. Spoken to like we were criminals and treated like we had a contagious disease.
Humiliated in front of waiting passengers while trying to hand a resume' in...standing for 10 hours in a hangar waiting to speak to a CP and then told no nothing here for you.....
For some operators i think it's a wonderful case of what goes around comes around...

[Pinky the pilot]

I notice that Mark Vaile has launched an "inquiry"into why there is a looming pilot shortage.



Ah yes......''Minister, one does not hold an enquiry unless one already knows the answer....''

Thank you Sir Humphrey!:yuk:

chief wiggum It would be a pleasant change if for once it was done correctly. Unfortunately, given past experiences, I am somewhat pessimistic.

However, miracles have been known to happen!

[Metro man]

How much is this inquiry going to cost in lawyers and consultants fees, committee time, research expenses etc ? Just to tell him how things went wrong.
Would have been alot cheaper to have listened to people in the industry before hand, and been prepared to head off the problem instead.
Still, I'm not complaining about the shortage, rhs in an airliner and my job prospects have never been better.:)

[SOPS]

re the Virgin 777 thing..I can also confirm the story..and I also hear direct from source that many more South Africans with Oz Res are trying to get there.

[teresa green]

My concern is fatigue. My young bloke is a A320 driver and I can see some strain setting in. This is going to become standard in all airlines, and it is becoming a world wide problem, so there is no easy fix. With kids going into IT for a quick return as far as wages go, it is becoming harder to attract the right starters. Since the second world war there has been a steady supply of pilots, but the drought is now biting in more ways then one. Interesting times ahead.

[PlankBlender]

Don't worry too much, Teresa, there's a movement the other way too: Kids who've gone a bit grey around the temples doing the IT thing :8, got bored after a decade or so :suspect:, and now want to do something more interesting and possibly fulfilling, and get themselves behind a yoke connected to more than a MS Flight Sim.. :)

In this day and age where there's a lot more career choice about (enabled by among other things babyboomer inheritance, said IT or banking salaries, or simply a distinct lack of materialism), I would not be too surprised if the group of people in their thirties knocking on the airlines' doors (big and small, that is) wouldn't be growing significantly.

I would certainly think that I am seeing more and more slightly more seasoned characters hanging around the flight schools and operators these days..

[galdian]

Firstly regarding the Yarpies who may be looking to Australia for future employment, much as I would prefer positions to be taken by aussies the reality is that many oz pilots have had successful careers in other countries, the world is becoming ever more international and that isn't going to change; accept the reality.

Now life's a funny thing and through no planning of their own, just pure DUMB luck, it is quite possible any oz airline looking for DEC's will have a greater pool to choose from than they could have imagined even 6 months ago - and the Yarpies may not have the inside running.

If the US$ continues on it's present direction (anyone reckon it's going to strengthen anytime soon in our lifetime??) the reason for working overseas becomes questionable, money Vs lifestyle etc, and the thought of going "home" increase.

The point at which a trickle becomes a flood? - your guess as good as mine.
IF this scenario plays out - the need for T&C's to improve in Oz? :(
(well, I reckon less of a guess than the first point.)

Just another factor.

[Tee Emm]

Simply putting in a resume and waiting for the phone to ring, just doesn't work, well not often anyway!;)

If the airlines are REALLY short of candidates they will contact you. On the other hand there is some truth in the adage that it is the squeaky wheel that gets the oil.

[404 Titan]

galdian
If the US$ continues on it's present direction (anyone reckon it's going to strengthen anytime soon in our lifetime??)
Yes, within the next 12-18 months. It's amazing what a low currency value does for an economy over the medium term. Remember the Aussie dollar in 2001/2. It got down to as low as US$0.47. The US economy is still by far the larget economy in the world. Earlier this year it still was ten times larger than the Chinese economy. An undersatnding of how the currency market works will tell you that money moves around the globe looking for a fast and high return like sheep looking for long grass.

[galdian]

404 titan

good point, certainly accept money will move to make profit, wonder how long before this cycle bottoms out, would suggest there a some factors in the US (US prime situation, ongoing and increasing debt both personal and governmental ie Iraq war) and oz (strong ongoing resources driven strength with a customer who'll keep on buying) that may delay any bottoming out for longer than expected/desired.

In the short term some current experienced expats, who have seen their earniings decline consistently over the last few years, may decide enough is enough and look at options back home, perhaps creating a larger pool of experience for the expanding airlines to draw from than they may have anticipated.
As I said certainly not any forward planning by management(s) involved, just dumb luck!

Indeed when the cycle bottoms out in the years to come it will probably be a new generation of expat pilots who take their quickly gained experience, and the ratings they've paid for, overseas in search of that (alleged!) pot of gold at the end of the expat rainbow. ;)

[404 Titan]

galdian

My time scale is a reflection of the US political process. There are big changes going to happen by the end of next year and this will have a big influence on where the US economy goes from here. If I was a betting man I would also bet the US will be pulling out of Iraq by about August next year, just before the US Presidencial election.

I think most expats realise this is just a peak in a never ending cycle. It is absolutley pointless trying to chase it for you will always be chasing your tail.