So after all is said and done, where do YOU think GF will be in two years?

[Ibn Kalb]

I would be very interested in hearing informed replies (please no whingeing, girls and boys) as to where GF will be.

What size?
Ownership?
Profitability?
Alliances?
Constantly bailed out by government?
What will have happened to the currently Bored?

[Hu-Flung-Dung]

Having been lurking on these forums for a couple of months now and reading with interest the views and concerns expressed by many, I think you've asked a question that, for many on this board, strikes to the heart of what seems to be the primary issue - the future of GF.

IMHO, and let me state that I am not a pilot but simply a relatively well informed observer of GF's plight over the past months, the chances of privatisation over the coming years appear extremely bleak (in it's current structure).

By that I suggest that, as everyone knows, a fish rots from its head down ... ie. no informed (institutional, as that is what would be required) investor would ever consider throwing money at GF while the current BoD is in place. In that respect I would direct blame for the plight of GF not at current or incumbent executive management, but rather the BoD whose responsibility it is to impose and manage the strategic direction of the organisation. For all the talk about 'transparency' over the past weeks, the BoD first needs to look at itself and who is pulling its strings.

So in answer to your question, Ibn Kalb, we're going to require a new, revitalised and, dare I say, non-corrupt BoD with a long-term, non-reactive strategy that isn't pie-in-the-sky and an executive management team capable of executing that strategy with minimal (operational) meddling from the BoD to allow GF to turn around. Until that time, again imho, GF will need to be propped up by the government until the government realises that a state-run enterprise is fundamentally flawed.

[Ibn Kalb]

Take a leaf out of the Nepali book, dude

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/6979292.stm

Nepal's state-run airline has confirmed that it sacrificed two goats to appease a Hindu god, following technical problems with one of its aircraft.

Nepal Airlines said the animals were slaughtered in front of the plane - a Boeing 757 - at Kathmandu airport.
The offering was made to Akash Bhairab, the Hindu god of sky protection, whose symbol is seen on the company's planes.
The airline said that after Sunday's ceremony the plane successfully completed a flight to Hong Kong.
"The snag in the plane has now been fixed and the aircraft has resumed its flights," senior airline official Raju KC was quoted as saying by Reuters.
Nepal Airlines has two Boeing aircraft in its fleet.
The persistent faults with one of the planes had led to the postponement of a number of flights in recent weeks. The company has not said what the problem was, but reports in local media have blamed an electrical fault.

[ironbutt57]

Wonder if they have placed a goat in the FSK "to protect service":}

[Al Fakhem Snr.]

Sorry did you say GF? Yes I recall such an airline.....what happened to them?

[Panama Jack]

Nepal's state-run airline has confirmed that it sacrificed two goats to appease a Hindu god, following technical problems with one of its aircraft.
'

Well now, I bet they haven't tried that yet to cure the ills of A40-ER and A40-EP. Probably worth a try. :bored:

Hu-Flung-Dung, great post!

[Sal-e]

Maybe GF should sacrifice it's fair share of animals of the two legged variety in order to be successful. :hmm:

[Hu-Flung-Dung]

Maybe GF should sacrifice it's two fattest Bored members :)

[noflare]

Why not the whole board:}

would that be enough to fix the 767 fleet!....ah bollocks do some of the past CEOs as well....things should be fine then!.

[jackbauer]

We need to sacrafice a whole Zoo to make any difference. Anybody have Noah's phone number?

[Mach084]

Jack Noah dont do Middle East mate, something about bugger all rain plus being somewhat jewish doesnt help either......you know;)

[jackbauer]

I never knew Ark was a jewish family name.....sorry!

[Mach084]

With replies like that mate you seriously risk giving away your true identity or at least your nationality :E

Cheers
Mach

[jackbauer]

I'm not the only Israeli in Bahrain am I? Jack Bauerstien has a certain ring to it.

[Mach084]

And what a nice Jewish boy you are too. I know a nice cosher restaurant in Adliya, we can break bread and talk about the barmitshfa.

Lehaim
Mach

[brassplate]

don't think jews existed then. they came out of ibrahim, who originated from iraq.

[Propellor]

" Nepal's state-run airline has confirmed that it sacrificed two goats to appease a Hindu god, following technical problems with one of its aircraft. "
The 767s are flying and their CP has been conspicuously absent for the last many months.
Wondering if he has been 'sacrificed'. (No one misses him, though.)
Is there a Hindu altar in Dublin? :rolleyes:

[Mach084]

Last time I was in Dublin I was with my mate Jackbauer and we went on a good "altar crawl" and I must admit they have some great "altars":} where the Guinness flows endlessly.

[notrocketscience]

At the risk of bringing this thread boringly back on track, I agree with HFD that private investment will not be forthcoming.

Note that in the space of 5 years GF has gone from being the flag-carrier of a group of states with a combined GDP of over $200 billion and a population of over 9 million, to being the flag-carrier of Bahrain, with a current GDP of $14 billion serving a resident population of 700,000 odd (some more odd than others, looking at pprune). It has also gone from being one of two major airlines in the Gulf, to competing with three full-service airlines with global ambitions plus two major local LCC's with others on the way. Since 1994, the financial centre of the Gulf and the Transportation hub of the Gulf have both moved South away from Bahrain.

Because of the above factors, the answers to Ibn Kalb's post are:

1. Size: the 767's will go; the 'buses will remain; budget constraints imposed by the parliament will mean no investment in new aircraft: make-do-and-mend will continue to be the order of the day.

2. Ownership: no change: flag-carrier of Bahrain.

3. Profitability: small nibbles will be made at the losses: expect low-yield routes to be cut and frequencies to be cut as new operators appear on the scene. At present, most of GF's passengers are expat labourers who are very budget conscious - this is not good news for the yield.

4. Alliances: no change.

5. Bailed out by government: as the flag-carrier? Yes.

6. Board: no change ("Give them more time to put the latest strategy into effect")

GF can be made to work, but it needs a deeper strategic review than has been effected by merely cutting destinations and introducing a "wave".

Where I come from, there is a saying "clogs to clogs in three generations": assuming a generation to be 20 years, three generations from 1950, when Freddie started it all, is Ibn Kalb's 2010: for GF, could this be "from regional airline to regional airline in three generations"?

(OK, so the aircraft are slightly larger, and there are now twice as many of them, but who's going to quibble?)

[fractional]

My 2 Fils:
What size? 10/10
Ownership? 51% Government/49% Private
Profitability? Soduku's guess, but it has to make an operating profit within 1 year
Alliances? Inportant after 1st ptofit
Constantly bailed out by government? See above
What will have happened to the currently Bored? Must go as everyone wishes so

[Trader]

321's - bad move no engine commonality - not the right aircraft. Maint. doesn't want 'em either.

PROFIT??? Just had the worst summer in years. The next loss will be absorbed COMPLETELY by Bahrain as opposed Oman etc covering some of it. ANother 100 million BD loss will make the government think seriously about what the hell they want to do.

Without a new board, with real world airline experience to give the co. focus and direction the losses will continue. Lots of new airplanes out there competing for the sam pax doesn't help.

20-25 aircraft focusing on regional flying with a few 'major' international routes.