Who cops it first it an industry downturn?

[Shortflyer]

Hi

Apologies for the crude title but I am about to embark on my training to join you guys and was wondering. In an industry downturn like 911 is it the pilots with more experience on more money that go first or those that are newly qualified?

Thanks for your experiences.

PJ

[Rainboe]

LIFO- Last In First Out. Every airline has such a policy. But pray, do you see a downturn coming? Don't go talking yourself into one! Just remember, people are very spoilt these days, they will have their holidays come what may, especially after this summer in Northern Europe. And remember people are retiring all the time. Just get yer head down and complete your work and get on with it. Times have never been so good for pilot employment.

[Headinclouds]

Agree with RAINBOE.
In an Industry downturn, the first to go are contractors, i.e. Non Permanent staff. Most Big Companies have to employ a certain amount of contract staff, most companies that is, not every!
Typically these companies that cannot maintain a stable working environment, due to uncompetitive T & C's, etc, Or companies that just want to be flexible for seasonal Numbers. The Benefit to being a contractor is typically your Take home is higher......

I stress this is not the case in every company.....i.e. Legacy Carriers

The Reason being: Contractors are brought in, to plug gaps in Jobs, as in this industry, exact control of flightdeck numbers is tricky, as many companies continue to expand. Also the Turnover increases for flightdeck jobs as more of the employees seek greener pastures.

Dont Worry about a Downturn, just get on with it.......Dont talk yourself out of it.......

[Luke SkyToddler]

I do worry though, the politicians in BOTH major parties have got it firmly in their heads that our industry is a cash cow to be milked under the pretext of environmental protection. It just seems these days that it's a race between that gibbering **** that leads the Tories and all the various labour party talking heads, to see who can paint airlines as the biggest threat to the survival of humanity and make the most outrageous promises to tax us to death accordingly.

Meanwhile Ryan have got another couple hundred 73s still to come, easy have still got to find parking places somewhere in europe for another 150-ish airbuses, plus all the other bits and pieces of expansion of other airlines, it's putting us all on a mighty collision course with each other and with the government.

It may not happen but I can see a situation in two or three years time in Europe where we could find ourselves in the middle of the perfect storm - dealing with a massive overcapacity crisis particularly among the loco's, serious dents in profitability and maybe pax number downturn caused by all these new green taxes and emissions trading and other government money grabs, and another big oil price hike could tip the whole thing over the edge.

[PosClimb]

If oil keeps climbing like this the only transportation job you'll get is the guy pushing the cart, as seen here:

http://kr.youtube.com/watch?v=grbSQ6O6kbs

[757_Driver]

wouldn't worry about it - its very easy in the UK to kid ourselves that our silly little island is still the centre of the known universe, but it ain't.
I've not seen much evidence of the current UK economic problems anywhere else in the world I've been recently. There is currently and will be for the foreseable futre, a shortage of decent pilots throughout the world.
So you may have to go work in poland, china, india, etc etc for your first job, big deal.
As soon as you get the blinkers off and look outside the UK and don't rely on the BBC propoganda for your view of the world, you realise what a lot of opportunity is around and what a great time this is to be alive. :ok:

[fiftyfour]

Ignore Rainboe. Every airline does not use Last in First Out. When BA bought Dan-Air in the last recession they just kept the pilots who where flying the aircraft they wanted to keep. The 3500 pilots in BA (most are Palpa members) did nothing to help, so BA management got it's way. The result was that the longest serving pilot was made redundant with minimum legal cash redundancy pay-off, and newest pilot who had been in the company 3 months was kept on - he is now a Captain with BA on the 757!

[PosClimb]

So you may have to go work in poland, china, india, etc etc for your first job, big deal.


China and India hire 200 hour expat FO's?

[captjns]

With not senirority list, you can throw out the Last in First Out deal along with upgrades. The merits of the crewmember will control as to when he/or she is put on an involuntary vacation or invited to upgrade.

[757_Driver]

So you may have to go work in poland, china, india, etc etc for your first job, big deal.
China and India hire 200 hour expat FO's?



I have absolutely no bloody idea. It was a general point that what you see and hear in the UK has absolutely no relevence to a GLOBAL industry, and there will be plenty of jobs somewhere in a couple of years time. If I had the insight to know where the jobs and growth would be in 3 years time i wouldn't be sitting here typing this. I'd be sitting on my private island somewhere!

And yes - last in First out is now, if not illegal, definately dubious under most EU employment laws.

[Bealzebub]

And yes - last in First out is now, if not illegal, definately dubious under most EU employment laws

That seems to be a contradiction ? Which particular law or laws are you referring to ?

[757_Driver]

it has been stated on here before - the latest UK employment laws - the one the introduced age discrimination, also makes last in first out dubious I believe. (not certain about this but thats what most companies seem to be thinking). Redundancies need to be done on objective cirteria.

However, I still don't think any of this is any reason for a newbee to consider for wether or not they do the training.

[BANANASBANANAS]

Plenty of jobs in SE Asia for typed and current expats. Not too sure about newly qualified guys though.

I have been an expat since '96 and am definitely not coming back to UK.

[555orange]

First to go in a downturn? Expats. If your working in a foreign country .. and they have a downturn... contract guys will be axed first. This is why contract is dangerous...in a serious downturn... if no one is hiring... and you were let go...you could be on the street for some time. There will always be a few jobs to be had, but expect: low pay, must be typed on your dime, recent time, in an area you don't want to go.

Last in/first out is only for the western civilized world where employee rights and blue collar factory worker seniority lists mean something.

For all you dudes on contract thinking your doing better than your comrades back home cause you were making an extra 10% a month due to the lower tax treatment, watch out! Time to be nervous...

[757_Driver]

why is this time to be nervous.

I said above and i stress again, there is not a global downturn, there is a downturn in a handful of western economies. This is a global business.
Don't base your view of the world on what the BBC tell you.
By any measure you care to use the global aviation industry is doing very nicely thank you very much. Just not in the US or UK.

[POKEYPILOT]

Im not nervous either!!

Im packing up work to open my own Algae farm.

If any buyers from the airlines read this only $75 a barrel.

Best way to bring Oil prices down is to stop using the damn stuff (difficult I know). We can all do our bit as consumers so as a start convert your car to LPG I did and already feeling the benefit in my pocket at 59p a litre and its greener!!!

[Bealzebub]

it has been stated on here before - the latest UK employment laws - the one the introduced age discrimination, also makes last in first out dubious I believe. (not certain about this but thats what most companies seem to be thinking). Redundancies need to be done on objective cirteria.


That statute can be found Here. (http://www.opsi.gov.uk/si/si2006/20061031.htm) Which bit supports your contention ?