What wil 65 do to Second Officer upgrade times?

[Flaps10]

Hey all...
For all S/O's joining now what will age 65 do to upgrade times to JFO?
If you all are saying that time to Command will now go to 12 years from the current 9 years one would assume that time as S/O will increase by 3 years.
So whats that? 6-7 years as S/O?
Correct me if I am wrong but unless you are a cadet joining with zero time this hardly seems worth it with all of the other opportunities out there.
What are your thoughts?
:eek:

[boxjockey]

All depends on your perspective. CX is where I would truly like to keep my hat hanging, if they don't f@ck it up with these crazy contract offers. That said even with 65, I don't think it will slow down the SO upgrade that much. We just had a snippit in the last monthly rag that said they want 500 more pilots by end of '08. That's a lot of recruitment in not much time, especially with the supposed interview turnouts. Just for info the SO upgrade time is currently a little over two years.

box

[Numero Crunchero]

That is very difficult to quantify accurately.

First of all, consider that in future CX should recruit suitably qualified pilots as DEFO and those without the requisite experience as SOs. CX seems to be moving to having more FOs per aircraft - in Oz the plan was to have more based FOs so now it is CN+2 FOs vs CN FO SO. I think the total number of SOs will remain reasonably static around the 300 mark for the next couple of years but there will still be progression.

Retirement.
For every CN that retires, one FO will be upgraded and one SO to replace the FO. So approx one SO upgrade per retirement.

Expansion.
In the expansion case we need say 1 CN, 2 FOs and 1 SO. That would mean an FO is upgraded and 3 SOs upgraded to FO - 1 to replace the FO that became a CN and the other 2 to man new aircraft. So 3 upgrades to FO per extra CN due to expansion.

So the effect of RA65 on SO upgrades will not be as bad as it appears, prima facie. Over the next 5-10 years approx half the commands planned were for replacement CNs. So it will cost FOs 50% of available commands. But for SOs 3/4 of the upgrades were due to expansion and 1/4 due to replacements.

So, back of the fag packet you would guesstimate that it will take 4 years instead of 3....things are never that simple though %-) The wild card is DEFOs. From a training constraint perspective, all the expansion should be manned from DEFOs. But CX is very aware of the institutionalisation of SOs and would still like to keep upgrading them.

So as you can see - very hard to quantify. Looking at the numbers my 'guesstimate' would be add 1 year to current upgrade time. You should at least get bypass pay for your extra year due to the number of DEFOs...currently 20.

Hope that answers your question?

[bobrun]

My opinion:

CX doesn't want to pay bypass to new S/Os with less than 42 months seniority. That was part of the COS08 and will surely come back with any DEFO deal. So bet on at least 3.5 years as S/O in the future.

For someone joining today the time to command will probably be around 10-12 years. With RA65, it will add a minimum of 5 years to that, or more likely 7-8 years. So bet on a time to command around 15 to 17+ with RA65. The estimate of a 3 years delay only with RA65 is very optimistic to say the least.

[newbie1972]

Quite a few Captains insist they will still retire at 55, regardless of what happens. However, imho, when it comes to the crunch, I believe that most will extend past 55 and they are just trying to make the younger dudes feel better by their comments. Most are too scared to retire. Just my opinion.

[newbie1972]

Numero Crunchero. Heard something about the fact that the post-55 guys get screwed on their provident fund. Any info? Something about getting a paltry flat interest rate??

[Numero Crunchero]

bobrun,
oh yee of little faith;-) In 10 years time the retirement rate will go back to normal - ie, as it is today at around 50 pa. So half the commands from 10years on will be retiree replacements. For someone joining today I have estimated a 3 year delay - but that was optimistically assuming current growth rate and no SARs/9-11 events.

The growth required is hard to visualise conceptually - so to make it easy, we need to have 131 a/c by the end of 2009 and 202 a/c by end of 2016.

Anything less than those numbers will seriously extend time to command beyond the 12-13 years I have projected.

On bypass pay - since we don't have a DEFO 'deal' CX must pay bypass pay to SO's regardless of 42 months in company or not.

newbie,
there are 2 provident funds (ignoring cash in lieu and MPF) for CX pilots - CPALRS and CPAPF93(also presented as the BBS etc). CPALRS is the defined benefit scheme about 200+ A scalers are on. CX intends for it only to go till you are 55 and then you can choose to have your money in a holding account(flat interest rate) or in a fidelity style 'mirror' fund suite - ie money markets, equity funds etc. To be honest, it is in the best interests of guys who have done 17+ years to switch out of CPALRS and into fidelity anyway as even with the money market rate of about 5%+ they will get an extra 2 months a year on top of what CPALRS pays!

For everyone that joined since B scales and those A scalers that have switched out of CPALRS, there is no difference after 55 - you continue to choose from your range of fidelity fund options.

The 'flat interest rate' you speak of affects very few senior pilots and should no longer be an issue as CX now offers them more choices.

Onto RA - yes I have seen many people who were adamant that they were leaving early take an extra year or three to leave. I plan to leave early but depends on how many ex mrs cruncheros I can accumulate. Hopefully I won't delay anyone's command! After all thats why we joined....good money and quickish commands due to RA55 - well that was true in 1992.

[Ex Douglas Driver]

Don't forget our "career progression" as laid down in CoS 99:

6.2. Recruitment of First Officers by Direct Entry will normally only take place when there are no Second Officers suitable for promotion.

6.3. In the event that recruitment of First Officers by Direct Entry occurs, other than in accordance with 6.2, Second Officers suitable for promotion will not normally have their promotion to Junior First Officer delayed by more than twelve (12) months whilst such First Officer recruitment by Direct Entry is taking place.

7.2. Second Officer to Junior First Officer
a. Second Officers joining by the Cadet Pilot Programme will serve as Second Officers for approximately thirty six (36) months.

b. Second Officers joining by Direct Entry will serve as Second Officers for approximately eighteen (18) months.

c. Promotion to Junior First Officer will occur when the Second Officer is allocated a conversion course, the effective date of promotion being the course start date. The number and timing of Junior First Officer upgrade courses is dependent upon Company requirements.

No mention of that in CoS08 (and probably not in CoS08 v2). Time to make sure that you're "suitable" and you fit into the "Company's requirements". DEFOs had better not slow my career down. It's lethargic enough as it is!!

[SIC]

The above conditions are being flagrantly disregarded. As I stated in another post - many many SO 's have plenty of experience in jets and qualified for JFO upgrade from the day they joined. Only reason they are SO 's is thats what was available at the time. Also not all can join on a base due their nationality.
DEFO is one thing only - saving two upgrades in times of low training resources ( ie SO to FO and new SO to replace him/her ) and secondly saving money cause guys get hired on bases.
Slightly pointless post - I know - since nothing said here will change that

[water check]

this will add 4 yrs to upgrade times...VB will get you a cmd in 4 yrs