Asian Pilot Shortage

[Mink]

Asia's skills shortage
Capturing talent

Aug 16th 2007 | HONG KONG
From The Economist print edition
Despite its booming economies and huge numbers of people, Asia is suffering a big shortage of skills. And it is about to get worse



Imaginechinahttps://www.economist.com/images/20070818/3307BB1.jpg
IT SEEMS odd. In the world's most populous region the biggest problem facing employers is a shortage of people. Asia has more than half the planet's inhabitants and is home to many of the world's fastest-growing economies. But some businesses are being forced to reconsider just how quickly they will be able to grow, because they cannot find enough people with the skills they need.
In a recent survey, 600 chief executives of multinational companies with businesses across Asia said a shortage of qualified staff ranked as their biggest concern in China (see chart 1) and South-East Asia. It was their second-biggest headache in Japan (after cultural differences) and the fourth-biggest in India (after problems with infrastructure, bureaucracy and wage inflation). Across almost every industry and sector it was the same.
https://www.economist.com/images/20070818/CBB769.gif
Old Asia-hands may find it easy to understand why there is such concern. The region's rapid economic growth has fished out the pool of available talent, they would say. But there is also a failure of education. Recent growth in many parts of Asia has been so great that it has rapidly transformed the type of skills needed by businesses. Schools and universities have been unable to keep up.
Taking wing

This is especially true for professional staff. Airlines are one example. With increasing deregulation, many new carriers are setting up and airlines are offering more services to meet demand. But there is a dreadful shortage of pilots. According to Alteon Training, the commercial-pilot training arm of Boeing, India has fewer than 3,000 pilots today but will need more than 12,000 by 2025. China will need to find an average of 2,200 new pilots a year just to keep up with the growth in air travel, which means it will need more than 40,000 pilots by 2025. In the meantime, with big international airlines training only a few hundred pilots a year, Asian airlines have taken to poaching them, often from each other. Philippine Airlines, for instance, lost 75 pilots to overseas airlines during the past three years. China has been trying to lure pilots from Brazil, among other places.

Similar problems are bedevilling the legal profession...

The article goes on from there. Think CX and others will have to pay more eventually?

M

[411A]

A similar situation existed when I first went to asia in the mid-seventies.
SQ was extremely short of B707 Commanders, and was offering a reasonable salary, but was loosing some guys to the mid-east, where the salaries were higher.
This forced SQ to raise the starting pay, but they were still behind the eight ball as regards crew numbers, especially later on, on the 747.

Most airline companies management can't reasonably plan beyond next Tuesday, never mind longer.

[SOUTHPAC]

Heeeeeeeeeee's Baaaaaaaaaack !!!!!!!

[GlueBall]

Needless to say, 411A, SQ is still behind in "legacy" carriers' rates of pay. :eek:

[SIC]

2 Things.

1. If you already work for one of the better paying airlines you will not get more cash cause there is a so called shortage. Airlines like CX do not have a lack of applicants - if they are short in crew its due to bad planning. The shortage exists down the line with the smaller companies that don't pay and therefore lose guys. So if you work for Phillipine Airlines you might be in for a payrise. If you work for CX there's nothing that prevents them from giving you a paycut - and still get all the Filipino Pilots to apply.... ( this is an example only )

2. Pilot shortages will eventually be eradicated by huge cadet schemes. These cadets will be signed up for cheap long contracts and will fill all the slots in future. Ie. once again it will do nothing to improve your conditions cause a local cadet with a big bond/low starting salary/no housing and education allowance will cost the company a lot less over a 25 year career than an expat ever will.

So dream on if you think a pilot shortage will help you if you already work for a major well paying company.

[Numero Crunchero]

Not trying to start trouble with my EK friends, but thought I would point out an interesting comparison. If you started with EK as a DEC tomorrow, you would be 10% worse off over 10 years than if you stayed in CX(assuming you got your command today). This assumes neither airline gives any payrises over the next 10 years. Historically, EK has received over 40% in payrises over the last 5 years whilst CX has received none. Taking out the rather large recent payrise, EK have averaged around 5-6% a year.

Of course if you started with EK today as an FO vs joining CX as an SO, you would be 28% better off in career earnings after 10 years than in CX. That was based on a CX command after 9 years which is probably no longer valid.

Not suggesting you jump ship - my friend Donpizmeov says the grass is browner everywhere;-) But it does show how the mighty CX money making machine has fallen to being less competitive than EK.

Aviation- its just a job!

[BuzzBox]

Pilot shortage? We must be due for a recession then!
:eek:

[slapfaan]

2. Pilot shortages will eventually be eradicated by huge cadet schemes. These cadets will be signed up for cheap long contracts and will fill all the slots in future. Ie. once again it will do nothing to improve your conditions cause a local cadet with a big bond/low starting salary/no housing and education allowance will cost the company a lot less over a 25 year career than an expat ever will.

WRONG!! When there is rapid expansion/growth..airlines need qualified pilots= expats!

Cadet training costs huge amounts,and there is never a guarantee that these lads+girls will stay on after their bonds are paid off..ESPECIALLY in asia where many of these cadets are university grads (unofficial requirement to join the CX scheme!!),,and have many other options available to them..

I know of at least 2 captains (local) who are in the process of applying to airlines further afield..YES..FOR THE MONEY!!Not to mention cadet SO's who recently joined Oasis in order to upgrade earlier...

Furthermore..there are legal implications and constraints as to how much/what companies are allowed to charge regarding training bonds...

The one and only way to alleviate pilot shortages in HIGH demand times,is to pay HIGH salaries,and throw in incentives..:ok:

[cpahka]

the South America driver very keen to working here, the numbers continue to grow:hmm:

[SIC]

Slapfaan - I really hope you are right about the cadet scheme thing - however what I have seen at all the Chinese airlines as well as Malaysian etc supports what I just said. And by the way - check out where Qantas plans to get their future pilots from - they are building a huge flight school.
Either way - my first point still stands. As soon as Cathay gives a decent pay rise due to a shortage I will consider myself truly shot down and retract my statement.

[GlueBall]

EK will have to increase pay if they hope to get enough "experienced" pilots to crew their expanding fleet, including 53 A380s. Many pilots will also have the opportunity to keep flying until age 65.

[404 Titan]

SIC

Just to clarify how the cadet scheme in CX works and how current recruitment is going.

1. CX pays the training costs for all cadets. About 36 per year.
2. Cadets “CAN NOT” be bonded by CX in HK after their training as evidenced by two cadets who after returning from Adelaide recently put in their resignation to CX. They had been offered a better deal with another local airline.
3. The flying school in Adelaide is severely constrained by a huge shortage of flying instructors in Australia. The pilot shortage in Australia is now approaching a critical stage with all sectors now starting to have difficulty attracting suitably qualified candidates.
4. Unlike what you may have heard, CX does have a severe problem with the number of suitably qualified candidates applying for the cadet scheme and direct entry positions. The number of people failing to show up for interviews is running at unsustainable levels. They have better offers elseware.
5. QF makes money out of their cadet scheme by charging for the training. The only reason QF is starting up their own flying school is they can see a buck in it. It is questionable though whether it will help their recruitment problems and whether they will be able to find the suitably qualified people in the current climate to run the school.

[db16]

There must therefore be a future for 70 year old FIs !

[Sqwak7700]

SIC said ... "2. Pilot shortages will eventually be eradicated by huge cadet schemes. These cadets will be signed up for cheap long contracts and will fill all the slots in future. Ie. once again it will do nothing to improve your conditions cause a local cadet with a big bond/low starting salary/no housing and education allowance will cost the company a lot less over a 25 year career than an expat ever will."

Ahh, I hate to shoot down your theory, but do you know how long the Cadet program takes to pump out a qualified (and I use the term loosely) airline pilot? There is too much lag in that program to help out with any shortages today. As someone already pointed out, if there is a shortage TODAY, then the only option is to poach and recriut qualified applicants TODAY, not ones that will be qualified in a few years.

The Cadet program is a politically fueled system that greases some pamls somewhere along the buracratic chain. If CX wanted an all cadet airlne they could have done it a long time ago. The accountants might want that, but there are barriers to achieving that, otherwise it would have happened already.

Make no mistake, we (as well as most airlines arround the world) are scraping the proverbial barrel for applicants. Think of it as sucking soda through a straw. The glass is almost empty, but we are still getting some fluid through the straw...its just the fluid that's been sitting around the bottom of the glass. The problem is that more money doesn't fill the glass back up, it just tilts the glass so you get more fluid through your straw while other straws run dry (for example, mainland china carriers).

So, if you are Cathay management, what do you do? Do you wait until the glass is empty to tilt it in your direction, or do you do it now and get all the qualified applicants you can. You also have to keep in mind that Cathay is now also dealing with higher than normal attrition. Why else would they have offered A SCALE to retain the top of the list? That is a last ditch attempt before they have to reach desperate measures.

[SIC]

My words were " eventually" I am still convinced that in the long run companies in Asia want to recruit and employ asians and not expats. This will be done through huge cadet schemes. You are obviously right about the current need for pilots - but that is a transient situation. In twenty years time I will be very surprised if the same situation prevails.
And I am still standing by for the pay rise caused due to pilot shortage...:hmm:

Refer to my first post above. Either way time will tell - and I hope I am wrong - cause If I am right this career is on its way to become even less attractive than it currently is.

[GlueBall]

3. The flying school in Adelaide is severely constrained by a huge shortage of flying instructors in Australia. The pilot shortage in Australia is now approaching a critical stage with all sectors now starting to have difficulty attracting suitably qualified candidates.


Gee, . . . I bet that if the pay for flight instructors were raised you would magically find all sorts of qualified, well experienced, instructor pilots come out of the woodworks, especially retired airline pilots. It's all about money, because these retired chaps wouldn't be interested in "building hours." :ooh:

[BusBusBus]

The Cadet program is a politically fueled system that greases some pamls somewhere along the buracratic chain. If CX wanted an all cadet airlne they could have done it a long time ago. The accountants might want that, but there are barriers to achieving that, otherwise it would have happened already.


The above might be true for the current CX cadet scheme, but I've got this feeling that the management might want to shift their cadet scheme closer to the SQ or CI model (look at the new HKID requirements that was announced by NR a few weeks back). For SQ and CI, they train about 200 to 300 cadets a year through multiple flying schools. These guys jump keep pumping pilots out like crazy, albert I have no idea about the quality of their cadet graduates, but SQ and CI cadet scheme allows them to hire majority of their pilot via the cadet and minimal amount of pilot hires each year as expat.

bus

[slapfaan]

The above might be true for the current CX cadet scheme, but I've got this feeling that the management might want to shift their cadet scheme closer to the SQ or CI model (look at the new HKID requirements that was announced by NR a few weeks back)

This scheme is now open to "anybody who holds a valid HKID.."

My filipina domestic helper has just submitted her online application..and if she doesn't make it in..plans to sue for GENDER discrimination under new laws heading this way...;)

[SIC]

Well Faan - had to laugh - untill I realized its not actually funny. Especially since flying is so easy these days with autopilots and glass cockpits you know. Soon they will lower the minimum IQ requirement like the US Army had to....

[Sqwak7700]

"Especially since flying is so easy these days with autopilots and glass cockpits you know. Soon they will lower the minimum IQ requirement like the US Army had to.... "

...tell that to TAM, or to China Airlines, or to Comair, or to...I don't know, who else has bent metal recently operating one of these "easy to fly" airplanes? :rolleyes:

Don't get me wrong, I love my computer, I use it everyday. But I'm not sure if my life is easier now than it was before I ever owned one. :hmm:

[Guru]

Sqwak7700,

I suggest the time it takes the Cadet program to 'pump out a qualified airline pilot', however 'loosely' you are using that term, is the length of the Cadet programme plus however long it is until any individual passes his/her initial JFO line check.

Please kindly tell me how long you think it takes.

[katana]

GURU - good point, well presented. Deserves an answer.

[BusBusBus]

I suggest the time it takes the Cadet program to 'pump out a qualified airline pilot', however 'loosely' you are using that term, is the length of the Cadet programme plus however long it is until any individual passes his/her initial JFO line check.

Please kindly tell me how long you think it takes.

You want to know the time from Cadet to JFO? I think this probably takes ages at CX but quicker at other airlines. This is probably due to the fact that CX keep their S/O for like 3 years (probably to save the company money on long haul). I think Dragon Air cadets are all flying qualify S/O after their cadet training and training in HK. After another year or so as an S/O, they become F/O (I donno do they have JFO or not). I think it is similar at SQ and CI.

[Midnight Rambler]

Why would KA have S/O's? They fly as F/O's surely.

[geh065]

Why would KA have S/O's? They fly as F/O's surely.

An excuse to pay them less of course!!! Why do we have JFOs?

[SIC]

I doubt Dragon has SO's - they don't do ULH. Their cadets essentially go straight into the right seat as FO's with 200 hours TT. And they seem to be fine despite little experience. Same at CAL, Malaysia and most Mainland Airlines with regional fleets. SO is something Cathay makes a guy do to save $$$ on ULH.
Which brings me back to my prediction that this career is doomed by cadet schemes/ MPL etc etc etc :{

[beerboy]

Dragon do have SO's but are much luckier in that they get a complete type rating and do an FO's job.

[SIC]

Well that would make him an FO then. Silly semantics causing guys to get SO pay for FO job I imagine. Kinda reminds me of that other evil - A vs B scale.:}

[rhoshamboe]

SIC,
I don't want to generalise but there is an awful lot of anecdotal evidence from KA skippers to suggest the KA s/o's are not all fine.

[Dan Winterland]

SO in KA is a rank - not a crew position. SO promotes to JFO after a a period of time and the requisite ability, and et seq to FO. The only differnece is the pay, the number of stripes on the shoulder and the crosswind limits. All get to fly the aircraft, but (as alluded) to varying levels of skill due to corresponding experience.

[SIC]

Well there you have it!! All semantics!!

And here I was always thinking that if you ONLY have two guys in the cockpit one is the Cpt and one is the FO. If these companies truly want to move into the 21 century with regards to CRM and cockpit gradients maybe the silly titles should go sometime. Nowhere else do you wear your payscale on your shoulder like here. The only thing that one stripe is good for is to lose the respect of the passengers it is supposed to get and than help you to confuse people around the airport building into thinking you are the assistant to the security guard or something....:p

With regards to cadets - I don't think it is a great way to get into the game either - and have done enough flying with guys like that to see many of them shy away from a crosswind. But their ability is not the point. The fact that their existence threatens the value of this career is the point I have been making since this thread started.

[iMad]

With regards to cadets - I don't think it is a great way to get into the game either - and have done enough flying with guys like that to see many of them shy away from a crosswind. But their ability is not the point. The fact that their existence threatens the value of this career is the point I have been making since this thread started.
SIC, so you don't think its a great way to get into the game as a cadet huh? Yes I'd agree with you, I'd much rather live near an airfield where I can watch airplanes take off and land all day, where I can pay AUD100 to fly for an hour or even better, have a father who owns a Cessna so I can fly it everyday, building my experience from when I'm 16 years old and be surrounded by a developed Aviation environment.
But do you see that around Asia?
If you knew anything about Asia you would know that there is very little to no general aviation in many countries here. Even if there is a flying club, they are mostly set up to cater for the "rich" and "upper circle" so they can impress their model girlfriends on weekends....(would YOU be able to afford a PPL course at HKD2500/hour when you were 16??)
My point is, there are very few chances for most of the people in Asia to get into Aviation and a cadetship is very probably their ONLY chance to fly. The areas which need most pilots now, China and India, are prime examples. I'm so sorry for devaluing "your" career, but from what you're saying, are you suggesting that all cadetships should be stopped so this career can remain an expat monopoly and therefore keep the wages high?

[And Then]

And they seem to be fine despite little experience.

How do you know?

Underpaid and undertrained. It is now a requirement that upgrading Dragonair Captains have an SO in their two day simulator evalulation- using a conventional First Officer has been deemed too advantageuos. :uhoh:

Somedays, in China and in Dragonair, having a Second Officer in the RHS can be pressing.

[SIC]

Hey iMad - relax!
I never ever implied that its about protecting expat jobs. There are more expat jobs now than ever before. Its about a cheapening of the profession.
The rot started years ago in the west with low cost airlines too. All I am concerned about - and if you make the effort to look at my other posts around pprune you'll see - is that cadets are being exploited by the airlines as cheap labour. In other words - I am on your side mate.
Go practise your crosswinds on that 330 sim till you cool off.

Oh and by the way I think you will find that the VAST MAJORITY of us worked our asses off and prostituted ourselves to shady operators in the bush/outback/northpole/Congo-(which I found particularly bad) for years while paying of loans to get where we are. Kinda slightly harder than having CX/ KA pay it all for you while you run around Adelaide chasing ugly chicks and sleeping in a warm ( CX/KA paid for ) bed.

So you see - actually not having general aviation in Asia saved you a lot of effort!!!!:ok:

[iMad]

SIC, I have ZERO intention of turning this into an EXPAT vs CADET argument. I didn't exactly sit around waiting for a cadetship to happen, but that's another story, let's keep this civil alright?
I know you've had to prostitute yourself, and work your axx off.... for some shady operator to get to where you are now, I respect that. I also respect your ability to operate an aircraft. I respect your experience. But my point is that at least you had the CHANCE to build that experience. Given the chance I'm sure a lot of Asians would do the same. The problem is we can't even afford to start! Go try and tell some Mainland Chinese or Indian whose family is struggling to feed themselves properly that they should spend 500K on getting their son a CPL. Even if they wanted to borrow the money to do so they won't be able to.
Try put yourself into the shoe of a low-income family in HK, you're the 21-year old son who dreams of flying one day, but you cannot afford to fly in HK (or anywhere else for that matter), what would YOU do? Would you say "oh if I joined CX as a cadet I would be undermining the efforts of all those expats to raise their salaries cos by hiring me CX will be saving housing costs, so I guess I better not join and give up this life-long dream."?
"2. Pilot shortages will eventually be eradicated by huge cadet schemes. These cadets will be signed up for cheap long contracts and will fill all the slots in future. Ie. once again it will do nothing to improve your conditions cause a local cadet with a big bond/low starting salary/no housing and education allowance will cost the company a lot less over a 25 year career than an expat ever will."
1. I'm not on a bond. 2. My starting salary is the same as yours.
So I'm cheap labour? I'm on the same contract as you. What makes me cheap labour? Yes I don't get housing, I'm from Hong Kong, I expected it, but hey don't get me wrong, if the company wants to give me housing I wouldn't mind. I just resent the fact that you keep on saying I'm cheap labour. Do Qantas/BA cadets get housing? Do you get housing on a base? Why am I the cheap labour who undercuts YOUR salaries when the only difference is that I don't get housing because I'm from HK?
I am on your side mate
call me lazy but I don't research all threads.... all I've seen on THIS thread is you ridiculing us about crosswind landings and how my "existence threatens the value of this career" ..my prediction that this career is doomed by cadet schemes/ MPL etc etc etc
The cadet scheme has been running for nearly 20 years, do you really think your career is doomed?

[Guru]

iMad,
I'm afraid in a lot of people's minds, the difference between an ex-cadet and an expat pilot goes beyond whether we receive a housing allowance or not. Please refer to Sqwak7700's post earlier in this thread. Not only do we have to pass the line checks and management reviews, we ex-cadets must also work that extra little bit to be PERCEIVED as being 'qualified' pilots.

Sqwak7700?

[iMad]

Guru,
So sad, so true....

[SIC]

Imad

I don't see why you insist on viewing my posts as an attack on cadets. I have no issues with the guys - I have issues with airlines who abuse this system.
Admit I have been a bit sarcastic - but I also stated often that I have no beef with the abilities of different pilot groups due to their background experience - so take the crosswind thing as a bad joke.
CX is unique in paying its cadets the same salaries as the expat employees. If you look at most other Asian companies the local guys get screwed and the expats generally get more money.
So once again - to make this very clear - I think that cadet programs will become bigger and bigger in future. In Asia they will allow Asian airlines to employ their own people at a reduced rate. And this will happen in the west too - Qantas is apparently going to build a huge flight school.
And no matter what people say a cadet signed up when fairly young will give a company more years of service and cost less than a guy who came through the traditional way ever will. One of the main killers of the A scale was the fact that guys were signing up younger ( more years of service = more time to make the pot you need for retirement) than the traditional 35 year old ex air force guy. SO the point is cadet schemes and hiring very young low time guys puts pressure on to reduce salaries and conditions.
As mentioned before I HOPE I AM WRONG. I am only stating what I perceive to be the way airlines would like things to become i.t.o pilot recruitment.

This industry is faced by many issues that reduce the value of a pilot. Cadet schemes as mentioned, low cost carriers as mentioned and last but not least simple greed. Saw a news story a while ago about an american airline ( Delta, AA or United ) paying their CEO 40 mil in bonuses right after they came out of chapter 11. At the same time their profit for the year was 26 mil. And all their staff were still on 35% reduced salaries with frozen pension funds since 9/11.
Company directors on average these days earn 400 times what the average employee makes - this was only 40 times twenty years ago. This goes on everywhere - not just airlines. The unique thing with aviation is that it is the only industry that actually sells most of its product ( econ tickets ) at below cost and make their profits off cutting their employees benefits.....

[Sqwak7700]

"Not only do we have to pass the line checks and management reviews, we ex-cadets must also work that extra little bit to be PERCEIVED as being 'qualified' pilots"

Well, at least I cadets gett 6 months right-seat time before they start their command course in an airplane they haven't flown. Meanwhile, expat pilots go straight into the flames. :rolleyes:

[iMad]

SIC: Valid points, all taken!!

[willnotcomply]

I feel sorry for imad and other cadets copping a beating on this topic. Its the same old crap among pilots.... "and there I was....", "I flew fast jets and you did'nt....", "military pilots are superior to a GA guy..", "the GA guy does it tough vs military..". You get the gist. We all have such diverse backgrounds at CX (culturally and professionaly), this is a good thing. Everyone takes advantage of opportunity, that is natural. If I were offered a cadetship with a major airline in my youth, damn sure I would have taken it. Cadets are not about to erode the career path of any pilot in CX, present or future. The volume (or lack of it) is of no meaningful consequence. More a case of political posturing on the company behalf. During my time in CX, I have seen some terrific pilots and some more forgetable performances, the majority though sit in between. Average people, average pilots. Cadets and expats sit in all three categories. So lets stop hanging **** on each other. The company love to see us at each others throats. Lets stick together for once. Unite and stick it to management and not each other!

[Avi8tor]

Have seen all this before, different setting and with a more political tint.

Pilots salaries, like most things, are driven by the law of supply and demand.

I dont wanna pop anybody's bubble, but driving the bus is NOT like sending a man to the moon. The hard part about becoming a pilot, like most things, is affording it.

So lets remove that little huddle and train more pilots. Then we can pay the rest less.

ECONOMICS101

p.s. dont look down on the cabin trash, we are all part of the same big wheel. If the Sh:mad: hit the fan, i would want them to be pulling my loved ones out of wreakage.

[Bwatchful]

Avi8tor :

Is this really what you think of the cabin crew or is there a hidden meaning in your remarks??

[Avi8tor]

Avi8tor :

Is this really what you think of the cabin crew or is there a hidden meaning in your remarks??

I think u will find its a thing called humour, perhaps u have heard of it?

[Bwatchful]

Avi8tor:

Humour is the quality of being amusing. I don't think your remarks would fall into that category, particularly if one were to view the remark from a cabin crew perspective. Enough said. Apology accepted.

[Avi8tor]

I don't think your remarks would fall into that category, particularly if one were to view the remark from a cabin crew perspective

I will forward your disapproval to the rather senior cabin crew member that made the comment, and convey your feelings that it didnt comply to your standards of political correctness.

And for the record, by any name, they are an integral part of the team.

[Bwatchful]

fair enough avi8tor, peace.

[CaptainProp]

Well, looks to me that there is no shortage at all.
Have you seen the pay on offer at Jade? Have also been "informed" that you have very few days per month that are really days off. As long as people accept these deals the long awaited raise in T&Cs will never happen.

[Frogman1484]

Cx is not worried about a pilot shortage, what they are worried about is in having to train all of the pilots they need for the 777 that are coming. If they get age 65 they will not have to train as many and in doing so they will save a bundle in training costs. They have worked out that paying 200 guys Ascales for another 10 years is cheaper than having to train 200 captains, 200 f/o's and 200 S/o (each guys moves up the scale).

[Numero Crunchero]

I don't want to get too numerical here. Just wanted to point out something not many people will be aware of. Lets compare an expat and cadet joining at 28 years old.

I have heard that the year in ADL costs CX about $1 million HKD - no idea if that is accurate or not. For the sake of argument, lets assume the LEP has a normal upgrade rate after he leaves ADL.

Currently expat SOs get housing of around $24K a month for two years. Lets assume that from 2 years until upgrade they rent/buy at the RFZ rate -$48K???

Currently(RA55) it takes around 9 years to become a captain. That means that an expat pilot would cost around $4.6million HKD in housing and another $1 million in education(2 kids).

So by the time the LEP gets to his command he has saved CX $5.6million HKD vs the expat and cost CX the course in ADL($1million?).

Assuming RA55, the LEP will save CX another $10million in housing as a captain and another $600K in EDN.

So over a career the LEP will save CX $15million (16.2m - ADL course cost) vs employing an expat.

So I know many feel the LEPs should be grateful that they were trained by CX but they save CX a lot of money unlike QF cadets!

[Numero Crunchero]

It may seem counter intuitive but RA65 will actually cost CX money. What it gains them is less training courses in the short term (5-10 years depending on how long the average guy works beyond 55th birthday).

A simple example may help - imagine no growth - for the next 10 years there would be no courses needed. Meanwhile every SO is earning SO4 salary, all FOs are on SFO6 and all captains have moved up 10 increments. By our(not just me;-) analysis we estimate the savings on training costs are wiped out by extra increment pay per rank within 5 years.

There is a balance between training costs and having the most junior SO/FO/CNs possible. But if you become training constrained then all bets are off and you just accept the higher salary bill.

For info...the cost(salary and PF only) 'per pilot' was higher in 2000 than it is today. But then we had 600 A scalers out of 1500 vs 400 A scalers out of 2100 today.

So like I said, although it isn't obvious, RA65 is going to cost CX more than RA55.

[Sqwak7700]

"Well, looks to me that there is no shortage at all.
Have you seen the pay on offer at Jade? Have also been "informed" that you have very few days per month that are really days off. As long as people accept these deals the long awaited raise in T&Cs will never happen."

Hey "Pro", lets compare apples to apples my friend. You can't compare CX to an all cargo outfit with less than 5 airplanes, all the same type. Jade pays what they pay and it is an orange, and CX pays what they pay because they are an apple.

Jade is Mainland based. If you don't think that mainland carriers are short, consider that the governemnt has stepped in to prevent any further growth due to the pilot shortage. Only airlines employing foreign pilots will be allowed growth and expansion into china. Just because Jade got enough people to start an operation doesn't mean that things are hunky-dory in their recriutment department. It is very different to staff an airline that only has a few airplanes with staffing one that has multiple bases and over 100. :ok:

[climbout]

1.Not enough people take the offer from Jade, - they are parking a B 744 -lack of pilots!!

2. Age 65: Typical CX management and pilots calculations...

Age 65 costs in any case more than 55 - just because many F/O,S/O's don't want to have their upgrades delayed by further 3 or MORE years, so some will resign -additional 'gap'=costs!

[Frogman1484]

Numero , you are right ...if no growth.
But we have 30+ 777 arriving and therefore growth. Just remember CX is a smart company , they will not offer something for nothing. They know what it will cost them and believe me this offer is 110% in their favour. They want RA65 because it saves them a lot of money by doing it this way...just ask them if they so worried about RA65 why are they not offering the same retirement age to the cabin crew and ground staff.

[CXpletive]

"Another issue keeping the FOP team busy is the shortage of trainers at the flight training facility in Adelaide - another symptom of the worldwide pilot shortage. Several creative options are being considered to keep the trainers committed to the school and to the CX cadet stream."

Tony Tyler

An admission maybe? Do hope he's told NR

[404 Titan]

CXpletive

It’s probably more a case that NR has told TT.

[Numero Crunchero]

I realise that we are getting lots of aircraft. I built that into my model on time to command. We need to have 131 at the end of 2009 and 148 at the end of 2011 to keep command time to 12-13 years from the current 9 years.

I think we are getting some of those 777s in 2010 and 2011. As soon as we order another 19 aircraft(since we are giving back the A346s) for delivery by end of 2011 we will maintain the mid growth model.

FYI, I have estimated time to command at 12-13 years. So at the end of 2019-2020 we will have 243-258 aircraft in order to achieve command at that time....we had 102 at the end of 2006!

[Frogman1484]

Sorry mate but you have lost me here, maybe too many numero's.
Are you saying that we are going to keep on growing to 250+ planes by 2020. Or you are saying that we need to grow to that in order to maintain command within 12 years. Both of these assumptions are a bit optimistic to me.

If RA65 is going to cost CX money why are they offering it?

Surely it will be more cost effective then to remain as we are.

Ask me and I will say that they have had to offer this in order to either offset increased training costs or put bums in seats of the new 777.

Remember no free lunches at Cx

[Numero Crunchero]

Thats exactly what I am saying...we need 258 aircraft by end of 2020 to keep the growth rate we have had for the last 5 years. At that rate a new joiner will get his command in about 12-13 years.

There are two ameliorating factors to that time to command. One, not everyone will actually work through to 65 - I would work on the assumption that the average would be say 60 - ie, 5 more years. Two, the failure/Cat B rate we have had for the last 5 years might knock a year or so off that command time if it continues. Its hard to say for sure as obviously cat Bs might have a go at a later time. We currently have around 130+ FOs on the seniority list higher than the most junior CN - not sure what category they all are.

Why RA65? A couple of reasons...eventually at outports it will become a requirement. CX has been offering extensions(C+T) or freighters(line CNs) for a while now so that it cannot be accused of age discrimination. The second reason...the major constraint on CX right now is training. Every extendee saves a few courses. So initially there are some savings to RA65 but they are wiped out by higher average PER pilot wage bills within 5 years.

Maybe a numerical example will help. Lets say I am at 55 now and on SCN 17 (A scale). Not counting my travel fund I cost 56% more than a brand new B scale CN - to put it numerically I will earn over $800K more than him in one year. Even a B scale SCN17 earns $560K more than him.

While that FO isn't upgraded to CN1, he earns a higher increment on the SFO scale and likewise for the SO. So the cost per cockpit goes up.

Additionally every extendee is a guaranteed captain...no Cat B, no failures or extensions. Based on the last few years it seems to take 120-140 candidates to achieve 100 CNs. So there are additional training course savings.

This is not about saving money - this is about saving courses.

[CaptainProp]

Sqwak7700 - I was not comparing anything, just making a comment on the thread "Asian Pilot shortage", this is not a thread about CX, right? :ok:

[Frogman1484]

Thanks Mate finally I get what you are saying. I agree that this is about saving training costs. Yes the time to command will move out in the future.

All I can say is that I'm sure that reduced training and no bypass pay will be lower than offering A scales to current A scale guys.

The RA65 that is being offered because of the base is BS! The number of based guys is less than 10% of the total pilot body. If they were worried about age discrimination they would be offering RA65 to cabin crew too (they have based crew too) instead of offering retrenchment packages to senior ones.

[Five Green]

NC:

Always so accurate however I am not sure I read the following right...

We currently have around 130+ FOs on the seniority list higher than the most junior CN - not sure what category they all are.
You might be trying to say something else but the most junior Captain(s) in the company joined in 2005. They upgraded this year on the 400F, so there are more the 130 FOs senior to them.

[CX has been offering extensions(C+T) or freighters(line CNs) for a while now so that it cannot be accused of age discrimination.I think this is hard to confirm. They are offering extensions because they need bums in seats and the training system cannot supply Captains fast enough. As you know many of those retiring at 55 are C&Ts. If we could upgrade faster (ie higher pass rate) then the company would not extend more expensive pilots when they could upgrade cheaper ones. They are just hiding behind the age laws at the moment and using it to their advantage.

What is the status with the cabin crew's COS. With reference to the age discrimination court case put forward by the FAU. Did the company change the CC's COS ?

Thanks

[Numero Crunchero]

Five green
you got me. I knew exactly what I meant to say and then wrote it ambiguously.

I have access to my numbers now so can be a bit more accurate.

What I meant to say is that there are 125(approx) pax FOs on the ASL above our most junior pax CN. Over last 5 1/2 years, since NC went from 3 to 4 bars, the most junior pax CN (also a keen Carlton supporter;-) is 400+ slots below me. IN between us there are over 125 FOs. That equates to a 30% failure(Cat C)/Cat B/Cat D rate in that time. There are probably a few who have deferred for lifestyle issues on a base.

I have not tried to analyse the freighter side of the house as it is a lot more problematic getting the data. We hear of the 'successes' of 2-3years to command but we hear nothing of the failures.

RA65 - a year ago management made it clear that full B scale for all extendees(for RA60) was unacceptable. Now they simply offer RA65 with A scale? More to it than just the need for expansion methinks. They have been asking for RA60 since at least 2001 I can assure you. But they haven't been prepared to pay the price - the reason the extendee's T+C are so frugal is that the extendee's cost equated to a new B scale CN 1 in HKG - so extending was close to salary neutral, ignoring bypass pay;-)

I do think it is 'mostly' because of onshoring issues - only the UK base is imminent though - April08.

Frogman
If I stay for 10 years (55-64)my total salary bill is $7million+ more than the B scale guy replacing me. I have old training cost figures from CX - the 3 courses that I deferred will cost less than $2million. And ultimately those 3 courses will occur, just 10 years later.

So please accept it, extending on A scales is a huge cost vs RA55. But another way to look at it is that they have kept me on 1994 pay scales (about what the current A scale is equivalent to after the 99-01 cuts) for 35 years of my career...so a win for them!


Some have accused me of being mischievous for pointing out that the CX 'market driven salary' is now at the same level as it was in 1990/91. So I will instead focus on closing the B-A scale gap before focusing on that new salary being the same level over 20 years later.

The most senior B scaler is on the same increment as I am. I earn 25.5% more than he does as, whilst I am also on CPAPF93, my 15.5% is based on a higher ghosted salary. My actual monthly salary is 24% above his.

The last CX offer had a 3% payrise in Jan 08 and another in Jan 09. HDP was applied equally so does not bridge the gap between the scales.

If CX were to repeat this deal indefinitely in Jan 2015 my B scale peer would have finally caught up with my salary scale - the same scale that was around in 1994. He would have been in almost 22 years by then.

RA65 is not an issue in HKG - but with over 450 based FOs and around 250 based CNs representing a 1/3rd of our workforce, there will eventually be an effect in HKG from based issues on RA. I am not suggesting the law will change in HKG any time soon, just that we have many more on a base than the cabin crew. The cabin crew on a base are on separate contracts to their hong kong peers.

I do not know what is happening about the FAU case - sorry!

If I stay beyond 55th birthday I save between 3 and 8 courses depending on growth rate. That will save them a few million up front...but then over 10 years I will cost them over $7million extra in salary and bypass pay would add up to $5million. The once only training course savings are approx $1-4million. So $12million vs $1-4million - do you still believe that RA65 on A scales saves money?

They are training/courses limited - between DEFOs and extensions they can halve the training requirement over the next 10 years.

If they used these 'saved courses' to expand the airline faster, such that there were no delays to command due to RA65, then we would have 346 a/c in 2019 and 381 in 2020.

Anyone still believe the company mantra that says RA65 will accelerate your time to command????

[404 Titan]

I believe CX has offered “A” scalers “A” scale to 65 because they have hit the hard wall regarding the training limit of the company. We have seen evidence of this over the last few years with FC’s not being done on DESO’s doing their JFO upgrade, line checks not being required anymore for FO’s being RQ’d, the request for “volunteers” for sim duties for SO training and DEFO’s on the PAX fleet. There just aren’t enough trainers, sim instructor, sim slots and sectors to complete the required task for the expansion. If you take into account the wasted resources because of the failures it is even worse. I believe the company has offered the “A” scalers “A” scale to 65 because they had no choice in the short term to drive the expansion forward, not because of some anti-discrimination laws that might become reality. Even if they did become reality because of new laws in HK or bases going onshore, no one (repeat no one) can be forced to work to 65 if they don’t want to. Your current contract is still valid including your RA55 if you so wish. It is just a red herring being thrown around by the company and those that probably don’t realise the implication or should I say the lack of, of anti discrimination laws.

NC, my personal belief and I have no proof to prove one way or the other is that the company has been playing the poker game regarding pay scales past 55. They have probably realised that “B” scale for “A” scalers past 55 hasn’t been accepted by enough of the troops in recent times, whether it be the C&T or line captains going to the freighter to drive the future expansion. They have upped the anti only enough “in their mind” to hopefully stem the retirement flow over the expansion period. They are still hiding their hand though if more needs to be done. Remember CX has a history of only doing what it has to and even then it is like pulling teeth.

[Numero Crunchero]

You may be right. Them deciding to only offer bypass pay to HKG based FOs would tie in with your poker game theory. They would know that in a 12-13 year wait to command maybe half of the SO/FOs eventually go on a base so they would have saved hundreds of millions of dollars in bypass pay.

I know they have sought legal advice on the basings issues. Maybe it is a combination of both needs. If they have to offer RA65 on a base all the C+T guys will bid for a base...leaving them with a lot less in HKG. So maybe that is the driver for offering RA65 in HKG?

Oh well, bottom line is that they are going to offer it...how can we protect and reduce the impact to our 1350+ colleagues who joined under the assumption that RA55 would keep their command time under a decade?

[404 Titan]

Let’s play poker.:E;)

[Frogman1484]

405 I agree with you...they are bluffing...look at the trend DEFO, A scles to RA65 etc they are hitting a major block CX does not give an increase or better terms for nothing.

Numero do you number this time include Bypass pay as per our contract , lets see how the figures look this time.

[goingdown]

NC
to protect the pilots affected by longer time in back/right seat there are several things that have to be done and those are interconnected
-better lifestyle(extra crew for proper bidline/request system)
-decent payrise with more increments
-better pension
We all know that RA65(and i think 60 would have been more than sufficient) will come sooner or later.
Time will tell what the company will do...

[newbie1972]

RA > 55 will only come if the company forces it. No legislation will force CX to do it. That is merely an excuse and once again, expectation management is working it's wonders. I am not saying that it will not happen. My point is that the pilots seem willing to roll over on things on the assumption that it will happen (rumour, speculation etc). Clear as mud??

It's a bit like the theory that if people (not implying anyone or any group in particular) tell lies often enough, even they will start to believe their own lies.....

[Five Green]

NC :

Sorry ol' mate slight correction again.

IN between us there are over 125 FOs. That equates to a 30% failure(Cat C)/Cat B/Cat D rate in that time.

That would only be correct if everyone passed first time. Since a good portion of those commands were achieved in the second attempt, you must also factor them into a true 'failure rate".

Granted they do eventually pass. However I think to paint a more accurate picture you must include all failures.

The reason being that a 1 or 2 year stint in the penalty box equates to less career earnings and a considerable amount of stress over and above the stress of the first command course. It also may mean losing out on a base as well.

Sorry, but I am learning to be pedantic.

FG

[jester_icarus]

hey all..im reading all of these comments regarding shortages of pilots. im a US based pilot with citizenship in an Asian coutry. Im trying real hard to work for any asian airline. i do realize that the pay may be ower that what i make here.. but regardless.. any suggestions on which company is hiring? 3000 total time, 1500 turbine PIC

[Numero Crunchero]

I agree that a year or two delay to command has a huge impact on career earnings.

Yes my maths are only an approximation. All I am doing is trying to see what is a 'back of the fag packet' number for the pass rate. I never see any number published by CX - all we ever get told about is the guys doing it on the freighter in 2-3 years.

Now a statistic I would like to see is the failure rate before and after Nick became DFO? Anecdotally it was very very low before I did my command, when the abacus was in charge. Obviously the zoologists' darwinian filtering techniques are more rigorous that what CX did for the previous 55 years. Of course it is possible that the previous GMA recruited badly in the mid-late 90s and that is why we have a high failure rate now - who was GMA back then??????

[jtr]

Of course it is possible that the previous GMA recruited badly in the mid-late 90s

Expect a clip from me next time I see you. I represent that remark.

[Numero Crunchero]

jtr, Your mum will protect me since I only said nice things about you to her;-)

My point is, we either have a) poor quality candidates or b) a flawed command process.

Occam's razor - either CX recruited badly for many many years starting from about 1992 or the command course/star chamber is flawed - the simplest, most likely answer is the latter. WHy do I say this....because it is hard to believe that the same people that recruited in 1990, 1991 etc then changed their standards in 1992, 1993 etc. Additionally and more importantly, was the very sudden increase form ZERO Cat Bs in 2001 to multiple today. When I started my command course it was expected that about 95-99% got through on their first go. I knew of only 2 guys who were the equivalent of Cat C and 7-9 Cat D equivalent guys. Those numbers bear no resemblance to today's statistics!

Like I said, I can't 'prove' either hypothesis is correct. What I do know is that NR was GMA in late 90s and DFO after that!

[climbout]

N.C.: .....hiring F/O with low experience - CX will have to deal with that, when this guys have their command, in let's say a decade...

Question:
Is the CX airline operation a 'Single Hand/Single Pilot ops'?
As far as I know, and experienced in former airlines, Flight Ops Dep.recognise F/O, S/O as Crew member, who are ,together with the Captain ,responsible for a safe conduct of the flight.
So ,it's a safety threat 'now', and not, when this guys come up to command.

By the way- CX hire the people! CX train(?) them!

So: What's wrong the the recruitment dep?+
What's wrong with the training dep?

It's just to simple to blame the 'single pilot'.

[jester_icarus]

whats is CX....is it China Airlines?

[BigPimpin]

You've got to be kidding me!

[Midnight Rambler]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lj3iNxZ8Dww&feature=bz301

[jester_icarus]

of course.. just wanted to humor the aviation since its giving me heart-burn... Cathay!!!! happy flying all!!!!

[sirhcttarp]

Anyone able to confirm Oasis is now paying 35000 housing + education allowance?

[Labomba]

housing allowance: no change, as far as I know: 25.000:bored:
education allocs: up to 2 kids, no changes there either.

[PA5JAG]

404 Titan or someone could you clear up a couple of points?

quote from Titan "Cadets “CAN NOT” be bonded by CX in HK after their training as evidenced by two cadets who after returning from Adelaide recently put in their resignation to CX. They had been offered a better deal with another local airline."

how did this happen when its meant to work that if cadets refuse a CX position or quit before serving 6 years they have to pay CX back for training?

Who would offer such low hours pilots a better deal than CX's??

Rhumours that they are thinkin of changing the cadet programme from leading straight into positions on CX's long haul routes.

Whats the general concensus about the fact that cadets start flying widebodies with absolutely minimal experience on multi-props let alone small or med jets? (and that after 3 years of [not] flying as an SO)

[water check]

Article in AW magazine states that less than 1/3 the required # of pilots requred over the next 10 yes will come from established training sources. In addition , the average level of experience will drop to a dangerous level. Pilot salaries will rise to levels not seen since the 60's. It seems CX mngmt believes that demographic trends do not apply to them...

[missingblade]

I so hope you are right - but if I look at the pace with which they built power stations and factories in the Pearl River Delta ( measurable in pollution increase ) then I have a feeling they will just as quickly build flying schools to supply the cadets. Ten cheers for the 80 hour MPL who gets his first command at the age of 21!!! Why pay an old grumpy expat millions to do the same job!:hmm:

[canuck revenger]

Missingblade: you may be right...but the only result of that policy will be several very large and very public hull losses. The next result will be the failure of the carrier in question. There is NO substitute for experience. Cathay will forget that at their peril (..and their passengers!).

[jester_icarus]

....grumpy old men are paid for their experience.. invaluable specially if you have your families flying in the aircraft he or she is commanding.

[missingblade]

So then B scalers I assume will not be allowed to become grumpy old men - since they don't get paid for it. :}

[FlexibleResponse]

I thought this was interesting:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/travel/chi-sat_pilots_0202feb02,0,4631217.story

chicagotribune.com

Retiring pilots put American in a bind
By Julie Johnsson
Tribune reporter
February 2, 2008

American Airlines is canceling flights and placing management pilots in its cockpits as it grapples with an onslaught of early pilot retirements that has left it short-handed for February.

On Friday, 143 pilots retired from American, the nation's largest airline. That's one of the largest pilot groups to depart en masse in airline history, amounting to about half the total number of American pilots who typically retire in a given year, according to the carrier's pilots union.

http://www.pprune.org/forums/showthread.php?t=311565

[Honkozzie]

So, let's see..

Extensions to age 65, even in HKG- don't kid yourselves, it WILL happen.
+
ULR will go 3 crew at anything under 13 hours and probably with a 'helpful' variation from CAD anything up to 15 hours... it's already hinted at in the FTL's, it just won't be at commander's discretion anymore. (there's a HUGE crew saving right there)
+
DEFO's (and maybe even DES/O's )on bases with no housing etc
+
Other carriers just not offering sufficiently sweet deals in order to lure any of us away in sufficiently large numbers... and by that you'd have to be assuming 100+ pilots at all levels... in one hit. Anything less just won't hurt them...only our rosters. 105 hrs per month anyone? Sure, some of us are doing it now, regularly.
+
Just good old management inertia... like global warming.. it's not hurting the bottom line, (YET)so let's not worry about it as long as we can, in the hopes that the next downturn will save us from having to introduce COS improvements that we will have to stick to.
=

No PAYRISES and NO "SHORTAGE"

and besides, when it DOES bite, the knoddies making all the money decisions will no longer be around to account for them.:{