The Guvnor
9th Feb 2001, 20:42
Sounds Of Silence Over What Caused Airline's First Disaster
The Nation
EDITORIAL
January 31, 2001
Nairobi
What plunged KQ Flight 431 into the Atlantic? After one year of the world holding its breath as
experts piece together clues, speculation has been rife, but no answers have been forthcoming.
Nothing, not even an interim report on the investigations into the crash, has been released by
the Cote d'Ivoire authorities, Kenya Airways technical director Steve Clarke says. According to
international conventions, the airline and the aircraft manufacturers cannot "investigate"
themselves. That puts the onus on the Cote d'Ivoire government.
In recent months, the biggest news coming out of Cote d'Ivoire has been that of coups d'etat and
political instability. Clarke says the authorities "are preoccupied with little things".
Aviation and navigation experts interviewed at the time of the crash gave varying opinions about
the possible causes of the crash.
Could it have been sabotage, human error, a malfunctioning airport or mechanical trouble?
Then, as now, the airline would not speculate. "I do not believe it is appropriate to get into
speculation. Let us allow the investigation to take its due course. However, I will not rule out
anything to that effect (that the plane broke before it plunged)," Clarke said last January.
But the airline has always argued that its fleet is well-serviced. The Airbus 310 which crashed
was accident-free throughout its 14 years of operation when it flew 58,000 kilometres. The
aircraft's manufacturer, France-based Airbus Industrie, said in a faxed reply to questions: "[We
are] in no position and [do] in no way make any comments as to the causes." Capt Martin Ririani,
who owns the Kenya School of Flying, was initially shy to comment on the causes of the crash.
"You understand it's a sensitive issue." But ultimately, he hinted that the most plausible
explanation was rooted in the state of the plane as it begun its final journey. A succession of
events preceding the crash could give a clue.
Witnesses and survivors said the aircraft lost power, then wobbled. Oxygen masks rolled down,
and then the lights went off.
Survivors claimed the plane ruptured mid-air. One saw fire in the wing. Fishermen who saw the
plane plunge, however, discounted the fire claims and said the aircraft shattered on impact with
the sea.
Some experts saw these as symptoms of a faulty or clogged up computer system.
If a system is fully digitised, its operations and functions are controlled entirely centrally.
If the computer clogs up, the whole system caves in. But if it becomes faulty, then the system
will receive uncoordinated signals - with all sorts of frightful possibilities. Could this be
what drove Flight 431 into the sea?
"It is possible that the system was faulty so it released wrong signals to the entire aircraft,"
a pilot at Nairobi's Wilson Airport theorised. "If not, what would explain the power failure and
the 'simulated' low pressure level that activated the release of oxygen masks?"
According to this theory, the pilot probably reacted to "erroneous" signals from a computer that
had run amok. The plane wobbled because the pilot struggled with the equipment, which was
responding to "erroneous" signals.
This theory gives strength to accounts that oxygen masks dropped at such low altitude. Ideally,
the masks automatically spring out at low pressure levels, something that is only possible at
very high altitudes, say above 40,000 feet. Flight 431 was just taking off and could not have
achieved such a level.
"[An aircraft cannot experience imbalance in pressure levels] immediately after take-off,"
argues the pilot - who claims to have once flown the ill-fated plane. "Even if the windows and
doors were open, the plane could not be affected."
Either the aircraft's electrical system could have blanked out due to the wrong signals from a
faulty computer system or the computer quickened the breakdown of the digital system.
Where one would have narrowed the area of suspicion to the crew, the post- mortem results on the
pilot and co-pilot show that they were just fine. That explodes the possibilities for human
error.
What about an aircraft that was not mechanically sound? Whereas Kenyans shied from thinking
about it, cynics point to the recent tyre bursts involving KA planes to claim there is laxity in
aircraft maintenance.
Perhaps the problem was deeper and bigger. The engine may have failed mid- air. Maybe the jetair
fuel was contaminated, eventually choking the engine.
Proponents of this theory argue that the loss of power as the plane took off was an indication
of engine failure.
But the pilot at Wilson Airport argues that contaminated fuel would have "started detonations"
mid-air. Although a witness said he saw fire at the aircraft's belly and rear as it wobbled on
its descent, there were no other accounts that Flight 431 indeed exploded in the air. Also, the
aircraft disintegrated on the second fall after bouncing on the waves.
If, however, the claims that oxygen masks came out and lights went off are true, it is unlikely
that bad fuel was to blame. If indeed the fuel was bad, then even the generator was not working.
But this reasoning assumes that the electrical system is divorced from the engine.
Jamming of controls can also occur due to a cut cables or hydraulic power failure.
There were claims that the plane was downed by a bomb explosion or overloading, but experts do
not see great chances in any of these. Another captain, who claimed to have once piloted the
ill-fated aircraft, said structural failure could have caused the fuselage to break.
A reputable British aviation network discounted claims that the crash was caused by the fierce
harmattan winds that had earlier forced it to overfly Lagos and land in Abidjan.
The Aviation Safety Network ruled out the possibility that the seasonal dusty winds that blow in
the desert were responsible for the disaster, saying the weather was fine at the time.
At the time of the crash - January 30 at 21:09 GMT - the temperature was 26C, while the winds
were blowing at two miles an hour.
The Nation
EDITORIAL
January 31, 2001
Nairobi
What plunged KQ Flight 431 into the Atlantic? After one year of the world holding its breath as
experts piece together clues, speculation has been rife, but no answers have been forthcoming.
Nothing, not even an interim report on the investigations into the crash, has been released by
the Cote d'Ivoire authorities, Kenya Airways technical director Steve Clarke says. According to
international conventions, the airline and the aircraft manufacturers cannot "investigate"
themselves. That puts the onus on the Cote d'Ivoire government.
In recent months, the biggest news coming out of Cote d'Ivoire has been that of coups d'etat and
political instability. Clarke says the authorities "are preoccupied with little things".
Aviation and navigation experts interviewed at the time of the crash gave varying opinions about
the possible causes of the crash.
Could it have been sabotage, human error, a malfunctioning airport or mechanical trouble?
Then, as now, the airline would not speculate. "I do not believe it is appropriate to get into
speculation. Let us allow the investigation to take its due course. However, I will not rule out
anything to that effect (that the plane broke before it plunged)," Clarke said last January.
But the airline has always argued that its fleet is well-serviced. The Airbus 310 which crashed
was accident-free throughout its 14 years of operation when it flew 58,000 kilometres. The
aircraft's manufacturer, France-based Airbus Industrie, said in a faxed reply to questions: "[We
are] in no position and [do] in no way make any comments as to the causes." Capt Martin Ririani,
who owns the Kenya School of Flying, was initially shy to comment on the causes of the crash.
"You understand it's a sensitive issue." But ultimately, he hinted that the most plausible
explanation was rooted in the state of the plane as it begun its final journey. A succession of
events preceding the crash could give a clue.
Witnesses and survivors said the aircraft lost power, then wobbled. Oxygen masks rolled down,
and then the lights went off.
Survivors claimed the plane ruptured mid-air. One saw fire in the wing. Fishermen who saw the
plane plunge, however, discounted the fire claims and said the aircraft shattered on impact with
the sea.
Some experts saw these as symptoms of a faulty or clogged up computer system.
If a system is fully digitised, its operations and functions are controlled entirely centrally.
If the computer clogs up, the whole system caves in. But if it becomes faulty, then the system
will receive uncoordinated signals - with all sorts of frightful possibilities. Could this be
what drove Flight 431 into the sea?
"It is possible that the system was faulty so it released wrong signals to the entire aircraft,"
a pilot at Nairobi's Wilson Airport theorised. "If not, what would explain the power failure and
the 'simulated' low pressure level that activated the release of oxygen masks?"
According to this theory, the pilot probably reacted to "erroneous" signals from a computer that
had run amok. The plane wobbled because the pilot struggled with the equipment, which was
responding to "erroneous" signals.
This theory gives strength to accounts that oxygen masks dropped at such low altitude. Ideally,
the masks automatically spring out at low pressure levels, something that is only possible at
very high altitudes, say above 40,000 feet. Flight 431 was just taking off and could not have
achieved such a level.
"[An aircraft cannot experience imbalance in pressure levels] immediately after take-off,"
argues the pilot - who claims to have once flown the ill-fated plane. "Even if the windows and
doors were open, the plane could not be affected."
Either the aircraft's electrical system could have blanked out due to the wrong signals from a
faulty computer system or the computer quickened the breakdown of the digital system.
Where one would have narrowed the area of suspicion to the crew, the post- mortem results on the
pilot and co-pilot show that they were just fine. That explodes the possibilities for human
error.
What about an aircraft that was not mechanically sound? Whereas Kenyans shied from thinking
about it, cynics point to the recent tyre bursts involving KA planes to claim there is laxity in
aircraft maintenance.
Perhaps the problem was deeper and bigger. The engine may have failed mid- air. Maybe the jetair
fuel was contaminated, eventually choking the engine.
Proponents of this theory argue that the loss of power as the plane took off was an indication
of engine failure.
But the pilot at Wilson Airport argues that contaminated fuel would have "started detonations"
mid-air. Although a witness said he saw fire at the aircraft's belly and rear as it wobbled on
its descent, there were no other accounts that Flight 431 indeed exploded in the air. Also, the
aircraft disintegrated on the second fall after bouncing on the waves.
If, however, the claims that oxygen masks came out and lights went off are true, it is unlikely
that bad fuel was to blame. If indeed the fuel was bad, then even the generator was not working.
But this reasoning assumes that the electrical system is divorced from the engine.
Jamming of controls can also occur due to a cut cables or hydraulic power failure.
There were claims that the plane was downed by a bomb explosion or overloading, but experts do
not see great chances in any of these. Another captain, who claimed to have once piloted the
ill-fated aircraft, said structural failure could have caused the fuselage to break.
A reputable British aviation network discounted claims that the crash was caused by the fierce
harmattan winds that had earlier forced it to overfly Lagos and land in Abidjan.
The Aviation Safety Network ruled out the possibility that the seasonal dusty winds that blow in
the desert were responsible for the disaster, saying the weather was fine at the time.
At the time of the crash - January 30 at 21:09 GMT - the temperature was 26C, while the winds
were blowing at two miles an hour.