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ORAC
26th Jun 2007, 23:45
Iranian forces crossed Iraqi border, says report

LONDON: Iranian Revolutionary Guard forces have been spotted by British troops crossing the border into southern Iraq, The Sun tabloid reported on Tuesday. Britain's defence ministry would not confirm or deny the report, with a spokesman declining to comment on "intelligence matters".

An unidentified intelligence source told the tabloid: "It is an extremely alarming development and raises the stakes considerably. In effect, it means we are in a full on war with Iran -- but nobody has officially declared it. We have hard proof that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps have crossed the border to attack us. It is very hard for us to strike back. All we can do is try to defend ourselves. We are badly on the back foot."

The Sun said that radar sightings of Iranian helicopters crossing into the Iraqi desert were confirmed to it by very senior military sources.

Chaos as Iran starts fuel rations (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6243644.stm)

At least one petrol station has been set on fire in the Iranian capital, Tehran, after the government announced fuel rationing for private motorists. Iranians were given only two hours' notice of the move that limits private drivers to 100 litres of fuel a month.

Despite its huge energy reserves Iran lacks refining capacity, forcing it to import about 40% of its petrol. Tehran is trying to rein in fuel consumption over fears of possible UN sanctions over its nuclear programme. Iran fears the West could sanction its petrol imports and cripple its economy. The restrictions began at midnight local time on Wednesday (2030 GMT Tuesday).

The BBC's Frances Harrison in Tehran says there is anger and frustration the government did not give people more notice. Eyewitnesses have seen at least one petrol station in the outskirts of the west of Tehran on fire and there are reports that three people died in the blaze. All over the city there are huge queues and reports of scuffles at petrol stations as motorists try to beat the start of the rationing and fill their tanks.

Iran's petrol is heavily subsidised, sold at about a fifth of its real cost. So far there has been no announcement about whether Iranians can buy more petrol at the real market cost. Our correspondent says rationing fuel is only likely to add to high inflation and the rising cost of living. It is a dangerous move for any elected government, especially in an oil-rich country like Iran where people think cheap fuel is their birthright and public transport is very limited, she says.

Crackdown on dissent is under way in Iran (http://www.iranmania.com/News/ArticleView/Default.asp?NewsCode=52561&NewsKind=Current%20Affairs)

LONDON, June 26 (IranMania) - Iran is in the throes of one of its most ferocious crackdowns on dissent in years, with the government focusing on labor leaders, universities, the press, women's rights advocates, a former nuclear negotiator and Iranian-Americans, three of whom have been in prison for more than six weeks, The International Herald Tribune reported.

The shift is occurring against the backdrop of an economy so stressed that although Iran is the world's second-largest oil exporter, it is on the verge of rationing gasoline. At the same time, the nuclear standoff with the West threatens to bring new sanctions.

The hard-line administration of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, analysts say, faces rising pressure for failing to deliver on promises of greater prosperity from soaring oil revenue. It has been using American support for a change in government as well as a possible military attack as a pretext to hound his opposition and its sympathizers.

Some analysts describe it as a "cultural revolution," an attempt to roll back the clock to the time of the 1979 revolution, when the newly formed Islamic Republic combined religious zeal and anti-imperialist rhetoric to try to assert itself as a regional leader.....

D-IFF_ident
27th Jun 2007, 00:26
You have a point sir. Surprised by how much I had to dig to find the story though - http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2-2007290279,00.html

http://www.investors.com/editorial/editorialcontent.asp?secid=1501&status=article&id=267750346809321

and

http://www.iranpressnews.com/english/source/026110.html

Interesting times. Here's hoping the full force of diplomacy is accelerating off the rails as we speak.

West Coast
27th Jun 2007, 03:46
"accelerating off the rails as we speak"

Off the rails as in fox two?

FATTER GATOR
27th Jun 2007, 07:23
Apparently Doctor Strangelove was seen walking into the Pentagon the other day.:eek:

reacher
27th Jun 2007, 08:26
Just substitute the Russian ambassador with the Iranian one (or is it an envoy these days).

Wader2
27th Jun 2007, 10:13
http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2-2007290279,00.html

http://www.investors.com/editorial/editorialcontent.asp?secid=1501&status=article&id=267750346809321


http://www.iranpressnews.com/english/source/026110.html


Interesting. I am not denigrating the original story but this is classic 'agent of influence' stuff.

A supposedly bona fide source oasses information to a respected journalist who is published in an 'obscure' newspaper. The story is then picked up and relayed by wire services etc eventually dropping the original source attribution.

In this context, for obscure, read less authoritive or non-broadsheet.

We have used similar ploys in the past for instance during Confrontation where articles were placed in the Hong Kong press and picked up by the Indonesian press.

brickhistory
27th Jun 2007, 16:35
Off the rails as in fox two?




Or in my days, "3,2,1, keyturn.........."

WASALOADIE
27th Jun 2007, 18:00
Just when you thought it couldn't get worse, Tony Blair is confirmed as the envoy for the Middle East peace accord!!!

MTOW
27th Jun 2007, 18:09
As I know someone else has already said on this forum, Mr Unspellable is just begging the Yanks to attack him so the Iranian people will have someone other than him and his government to vent their anger on, what with the fuel rationing and whatever else he'll soon have to introduce.

He stands a very good chance of falling on his own sword (or arse if you prefer) if the Yanks can just be convinced to let Middle Eastern human nature take its own course.

SpotterFC
27th Jun 2007, 18:34
Are they hoarding petrol for another reason? Didn't something like this happen in Red Storm Rising? No shortage of oil but a huge lack of refining capacity in that tale too - fiction presaging fact?

Where's the equivalent of Iceland (strategically) in the hot place?

Big Sand
27th Jun 2007, 18:51
Mr Blair appointed as a 'Peace Envoy'?!!:ugh: Yip, I can see a certain section of the Middle East just looooooooooving the irony of that one.

Can't help but feel for Mr Johnny Respectable Iraqi / Afghani etc getting tag teamed by all sides?! He can't even have a few beers and a bag of Pork Scratchings of an evening?!

Anyone had the pleasure of an NHS hospital recently:ouch: - getting to look a bit like an Iraqi nursery too these days. At least New Labour is consistent..........................:ok:

Big Sand

pma 32dd
27th Jun 2007, 18:55
Where's the equivalent of Iceland (strategically) in the hot place?

Bahrain..........also an island full of hot women and beer

:E

Green Flash
28th Jun 2007, 09:18
MTOW

I think you are somewhere close! Social problems at home? - have a war! Slowly ramp things up (nick someones I-pod;), 'stray' over the border, etc etc) until it triggers. Classic. Those boys arn't daft. Heads up folks.:ooh:

Lazer-Hound
28th Jun 2007, 10:49
Green Flash, I think Gordon Brown has a little bit of time to sort things out before he has to resort to those kind of tactics:)

AR1
28th Jun 2007, 11:44
Isn't 'Green Flash' the code word for 'Get your pumps on and start running'?

it will be interesting to see how we deal with this, as I thought the Ipodless storytelling was all allowed so that joe public in the UK started to dislike Iran.

So now do we ramp it up, or will we pull back?

Green Flash
28th Jun 2007, 20:59
Lazer
Nice one, spilt me beer!

AR1
Pumps on? Running? What's all that, then? Don't you have staff to do that for you? Baaaaaaa

I fear that the decision as to what happens next will be taken at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue:eek:

Jimmy Macintosh
28th Jun 2007, 23:20
Just curious, a couple of questions,

Who actually has control over the Iraqi military?
The conscripts, I assume the elected government.
The Airforce, does it still exist? hard to train and keep current a grounded airforce.
The Revolutionary Guard (Weren't these the guys directly under Husseins control?)
Navy, do they have one?

Do they even still have much of a military, or are the police now their biggest fighting force?

Who'll have to fight Iran should an invasion take place? (I figure it'll be another coalition)

Where are Iraq's refining facilities?

This could turn into an even bigger mess than it currently is.

ORAC
28th Jun 2007, 23:47
Military of Iran (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_of_Iran)

Iran Military Guide (http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/iran/index.html)

Double Zero
29th Jun 2007, 22:50
Red Storm Rising - now that is a book...had a very good PC game based on the sub' part, a chum who's now a Nimrod MR4 ( yes thats right ) type knackered my system by being unable to put it down until he'd sorted out the whole Russian navy, or vice versa.

It would make a hell of a film, though might need a lot of C.G.I, unless they're willing to plaster the Nimitz & the Foch etc ! The latter might be difficult, but at least it could encourage the JSF / CVF lot to get on with it - and I was amazed to read recently of new Blackjacks being delivered...

MTOW
30th Jun 2007, 02:29
The Revolutionary Guard (Weren't these the guys directly under Husseins control?)Hussein's control?? Which Hussein was that? The country in question is I-R-A-N.

GreenKnight121
1st Jul 2007, 02:00
Saddam Hussein controlled the Republican Guard of Iraq... :=



The Revolutionary Guard of Iran is under the direct control of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

It is led by Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani, who is also Commander in Chief of the regular armed forces.

That makes for a nice, large personal army for the Ayatollah, now doesn't it? :eek:

Mr Point
17th Sep 2007, 07:57
...and now the French want a piece of the action:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/6997935.stm

It's a good job there haven't been too many PVRs submitted over the last year! :eek: