Abundant Oil - will it last your career?

[v6g]

As student pilots, one way or another, we're investing in a career that will hopefully span several decades. Yet, there are few industries more dependent on cheap & plentiful supplies of oil.

So, what do you think? Most of us are in our 20's and 30's, by the time we're in our 50's and early 60's will there still be the 1p weekend trip to Spain or the business conference in New York? Do you consider it a risk? The latter years of a career are the most fragile - do you have a plan B? Do you think an alternative to oil will have been found for aviation by then? Do you think it's all scaremongering because there's 'plenty of oil left'?

Discuss. Show your working. Answer on both sides of the paper.

[Dct_Bombi]

There was a programme on last nights Irish TV about just this point.
Ireland being an Island of an island off the west coast of europe where they are the end of oil and gas pipe lines will of course feel quiet hard hit as will everywhere else, It was even suggested it would send the country back to the 50's. The time this was to start hitting the industries especially aviation was approximately 15 years from now.
Yes it is scary and yes it does worry me, Heres hoping Iae/CFM/RR etc etc come up with an igenious solution. T minus 15 years and counting.

Thats an C- paper at least sir v6g:rolleyes:

[helicopter-redeye]

Canadian Oil Sands - big reserves - their still a friendly country right? h-r;)

[flyasthesky]

Its going to be a problem, however just read in the paper yesterday quite a big reserve of oil has being discovered in Ghana. I suppose this will only delay the ever approaching peak oil.

[Hookerbot 5000]

We are seeing the emergence of hydrogen fuel cars, RB has invested in developing alternative fuels for avaition, i was watching highlights from the paris air show so far and one engine maker is researching into aviation bio-fuels so i am not worried.

[Luke SkyToddler]

Not a concern.

My father-in-law is an exec with Saudi Aramco (the Saudi government entity in charge of drilling, processing and selling oil to the rest of the world), he's been out there for 30 years.

In the '70s the Saudis were saying there was only 40 years' supply left. They've got over 300 new wells in process at the moment and they're saying now (2007) that they've got over 50 years reserves at the current rate of demand - and still over 90% of the country hasnt' been explored with the new ultrasound exploration techniques that have only really been perfected in the last few years.

They've always known since way back in the '50s and '60s that there were thousands of smaller oilfields and prospects further inland and to the south of the country, but it was never economically viable to drill them at $25 a barrel. At $65 a barrel all of a sudden it makes a big difference.

So yes the oil will outlast our lifetimes. And turbine engine technology can be adapted a lot more easily to alternative fuel sources than internal combustion engines, when the day comes that it does eventually run out.

The greenies will put us all out of business long before the oil runs out (here in Europe anyway), that's the real concern you should be worrying yourselves about! :{:{:{

[A2QFI]

As the price of crude rises more and more sources will become economically viable. Someone has mentioned the Canadian tar sands; these apparently contain 300 billion barrels of extractable oil - I don't know what that is as a proportion of known reserves or how many year's supply that figure represents but it sounds like a lot! Also, extraction techniques have improved and many old wells may be reopened for another go at getting further supplies out.

[DJRC]

Interesting comment, but don't forget, the amount of oil a country is allowed to export is linked to their oil reserves. Some would argue that many of the OPEC countries are grossly exaggerating their reserves so as they can export more and maintain the wealth status that they have become used to. If the reserve estimates were cut, so would the exports and more importantly, the revenue. Before you know it, you'd have A380 flying palaces being cancelled in favour of small business jets and no self respecting Sheikh wants that.

[A2QFI]

Thanks for that information. I wasn't aware that such a protocol exists, but if it does, I am sure it is routinely ignored or manipulated by many countries. We are talking about the Middle East here, in the main!

[bia botal]

v6g

don't panic mate, when we can't fly anymore we can all go and drive trucks.:}

[Wodka]

I'm more bothered about the mass hysteria rags such as The Daily Mail are creating.

It has been stated time and again by government reports & airlines that aviation is responsible for ~ 2% CO2 but the media seem to have decided that, like a naughty MP being caught in an whore house, they are going to destroy aviation to prove some sort of point :ugh: They feed the ill informed & readily accepting public this skewed information with the resulting reduction in demand for travel.

The focus should be more even footed, fact driven and less sensationalist.

But that doesn't sell many papers, does it? :mad:

[DJRC]

Couldn't agree more Wodka, trying to Tax aviation into reducing it's already insignificant C02 contributions is a bit like throwing a deckchair of the Titanic, especially when you consider that China is currently building 2 power stations a week (predominately coal fired).

[Hookerbot 5000]

^totally agree with the last 2 posters. In addition aircraft like the 737-800, dreamliner & generally all new aircraft are much for fuel and thus co2 efficient so the enivronmental imapact will decrease. :p

Leave aviation alone ;):ok:

[boogie-nicey]

The simple facts that aviation is a very dynamic technology which constantly refines itself is overlooked by all the social speculators and chattering classes. They just don't want to face the truth that aviation has a small footprint instead they require a target one which unlike the rest is still disciplined, conformist, hard working and professional. Therefore aviation is readily accepted as the target to lock onto. Just like immigration certain industries are perceived through the fog of mystique and thus becomes an easy blame point. Ignorance of course fuels this further and there's plenty of that around society, in fact it's celebrated.

[v6g]

I thought I'd resurrect this thread, since I've learnt a lot more about this topic recently. Thanks everyone for your comments. A good paper I've found which discusses all the points is http://dieoff.com/page140.pdf - the figure at the bottom of the last page is particularly interesting with respect to OPEC reserves.

There's plenty of oil left - in fact there's just over half left. The question is what will happen when global oil production begins to decline? The raw numbers in the BP Statistical Review (Google it) are revealing, they show how more than half of all oil-producing nations are already in terminal decline. I'm not saying that oil is about to run out - but I'm seeing more signs that the days of cheap oil are over. I've always believed it wouldn't happen in my lifetime - now I believe it will happen within the next 10-15 years. One estimate put it within the next 3 years. Will Ryanair still be selling 1p tickets to the unwashed masses when oil is $300-$400 a barrel? I don't think so. Flying will return to previous eras of air travel where only film stars & businessmen can afford it and there won't be much demand for pilots at that point. Any guesses what might happen to T&C's when 20% of the workforce is laid off? Then 50%, then 80%?

Canadian Oil Sands - big reserves - their still a friendly country right?
- you mean the "Canadian Tar Sands". True, they're a very big reserve - but it takes a lot of energy & expensive to extract (and pollution too - but let's ignore that aspect for now). The fact that the Tar Sands are now becoming financially viable is indicative of the fact that the world is almost at the peak.

We are seeing the emergence of hydrogen fuel cars, RB has invested in developing alternative fuels for avaition, i was watching highlights from the paris air show so far and one engine maker is researching into aviation bio-fuels so i am not worried.
- the trouble with hydrogen is again, it's expensive to make, expensive to compress so it can be shipped around and expensive to hold (the damn stuff just leaks out). Again, it's not about reserves but price. Biofuels are the same, you might be able to run an engine on it but by growing it you are displacing food production (world grain surpluses have already been declining for the past decade) - that increased demand will push the price up (although it'll be easier to make third world countries starve than stop us rich folks jetting away to the med).

My father was born in 1935, in his youth it was rare for a car to come down his street, now we drive everywhere and fly round the world on holiday. I'm beginning to expect my life to mirror his in the opposite way.

This is the one conversation I wish I'd had with my father-in-law before he died - he was a Senior Geologist with BP for most of his life.

And don't even mention India & China….

Deep stuff - I hope I turn out to be wrong ... I really do.

[PosClimb]

I'd be more worried about technology making the FO redundant than energy supplies. It happened to the Navigator, then the Engineer... the FO's is next.