Do you think there will be another bid for Qantas?

['holic]

From APA or anyone else?

Taking into consideration that :

Any future board will be gun shy of endorsing any further bids, not to mention exorbitant reward schemes they receive from such bids. I believe the current board will be flat out maintaining enough credibility to endorse a garage sale. I will be the first to call them a taxi and have a little gloat at their expense on their way out, but who knows what sort of corporate parasites will replace them.
All the adverse publicity may make the government/ACCC etc reluctant to allow another bid to go ahead. Particularly since this one turned into such a farce.
By the sounds of things, a few hedge funds may have got their fingers burnt. If there is a next time, less involvement of hedge funds and more from genuine long term investors who are looking further ahead than profit to be made in a few weeks may discourage further bidders. Just about every statement made by analysts and APA for that matter showed how reliant this takeover was on the hedge funds.Having said all that, I guess it all comes back to 'if you throw enough money at a problem it goes away.'

Cheers

[YesTAM]

I don't think there will be another bid for Qantas in its current form.

First of all, I expect the Board to resign this morning.

Then I expect a new Board and senior management team to do four things:

a) Restructure the airline and kill the Jetstar brand.

b) Return oodles of cash to shareholders.

c) Drop airfares and increase direct services (city to city pairs plus international) to all Capital cities. Launch a new marketing campaign internationally and locally

d) Rehumanise its staff policies and start recruiting to deal with the huge increase in volume and revenue, as American tourists flock to the one safe destination in this part of the world. Their business colleagues then follow and invest in a place where your intellectual property and trade secrets are safe.

This is based on a number of perceptions;

1) Most people I know will not currently fly Qantas if they can find an alternative. "Arrogance" and "inconvenience" are words that usually crop up in the conversation.

2) Every U. S. tourist I have met (and I've met quite a few on various live aboard dive boats) complains about the cost of getting to Australia and the nuisance of having to fly through Sydney to get to Cairns or wherever they are going.

3) Multiple Government reports citing the availability of frequent direct air services as a key determinant in selecting the location for overseas investment.

Remove the "Qantas Tax" on every person flying into this country and watch the economy grow even further.

[lowerlobe]

The actions of the board (including the infamous and now much derided kiss and cuddle) have left the company vulnerable to other take overs.They have shown their hand and should now be shown the door.

This may mean the share price temporarily frozen but in the long run when trading resumes another take over I think is ineviteable.Simply because this charade has shown that there is a huge value in QF or APA would not have gone to this effort.

[bentleg]

I think APA will be back with another offer. I hope they dont, but that's what I think will happen.....

[Miraz]

Have to agree...too much money behind the bid now to just walk away - suspect that this will happen very quickly to limit the impact of the hedge funds dumping stock to meet the foreign ownership rules.

[Flyingblind]

[QUOTE]I don't think there will be another bid for Qantas in its current form.

First of all, I expect the Board to resign this morning.

Then I expect a new Board and senior management team to do four things:

a) Restructure the airline and kill the Jetstar brand.

b) Return oodles of cash to shareholders.

c) Drop airfares and increase direct services (city to city pairs plus international) to all Capital cities. Launch a new marketing campaign internationally and locally

d) Rehumanise its staff policies and start recruiting to deal with the huge increase in volume and revenue, as American tourists flock to the one safe destination in this part of the world. Their business colleagues then follow and invest in a place where your intellectual property and trade secrets are safe.

This is based on a number of perceptions;

1) Most people I know will not currently fly Qantas if they can find an alternative. "Arrogance" and "inconvenience" are words that usually crop up in the conversation.

2) Every U. S. tourist I have met (and I've met quite a few on various live aboard dive boats) complains about the cost of getting to Australia and the nuisance of having to fly through Sydney to get to Cairns or wherever they are going.

3) Multiple Government reports citing the availability of frequent direct air services as a key determinant in selecting the location for overseas investment.

Remove the "Qantas Tax" on every person flying into this country and watch the economy grow even further.[QUOTE]

Well done YesTam, you get my vote for a seat on the board, thats a great 'wish list' and i doubt you would receive many complaints if it were so!:D

[Miraz]

From APA @ 9:49


AIRLINE PARTNERS AUSTRALIA EXPLORING POSSIBLE ALTERNATIVES
Applications to and discussions with regulators since the Friday deadline under Airline Partners
Australia’s (APA’s) offer have not resulted in APA being able to include a late acceptance which
would have resulted in a two week extension to APA’s offer.
In view of the fact that a majority of Qantas shareholders (by number and value including the
late acceptance) lodged acceptances for APA’s offer, APA is exploring a number of alternatives
including the possibility of making a renewed offer for Qantas at $5.45 per share.
APA always intended to support the existing Qantas management team to achieve their goals to
strengthen and grow the airline. That remains the case.

[Syd eng]

A new bid offer is being reported this morning with the same price.

[Howard Hughes]

YesTam, very nice sentiments and probably a sound business plan, but in the words of Darryl Kerrigan "tell him he's dreamin".;)

[jack red]

YesTam you are correct. The entire Qantas board should resign as the majority of shareholders have voted no confidence in their recommendation to sell and therefore in the board themselves.

APA won't secure a deal with a share offer of $5.45. The institutional investors have clearly indicated that $6.00 would be closer to the mark.

Howard and Costello will have no say in the future of a private company. The only adverse publicity has been from the Unions and no one takes much notice of them these days. Qantas will still be vulnerable to take-overs in the future.

YesTam your business plan has some good points but I have to agree with HH.

[Howard Hughes]

I am sure I heard Peter Costello on the radio yesterday calling for MJ's resignation! I can't seem to find a reference on the net anywhere, maybe I am just going loco...:uhoh:

Sadly it will be the mum and dad investors yet again who get stung! :hmm:

['holic]

Just saw Costello on the ABC at 12pm and he basically said the current bid is over, any new bids would have to go through the entire regulatory process again including review by the Foreign Investment Review Board, which would probably take several months. It's probably wishful thinking on my part but given that :


The bid was overwhelmingly unpopular with the general public.
The way the bid was handled resulted in Qantas becoming the plaything of foreign hedge funds.
This is an election yearI'm hoping that by singling out the FIRB he was dropping a big hint to APA. Time will tell ......

[Bluebottle]

Here comes another twist in the tale:

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21684922-1702,00.html

[mrpaxing]

bid as the hedge funds stand to loose hundreds of millions of dollars. i am sure the maq factory is working overtime to set up an alternate deal. might be with Apa as minor or no participant but something i cooking. the only headache they might have in the short term, is the current foreign ownership limitations of shares. wonder what the government, ASIC,ASx are doing about it??????????:ugh:
lets not forget QF spend 92 million on its advisors and APA and its mob would have spend a bit more by now. so anyone thinks the game is over, think again.:{

[Capt Kremin]

Clause 7.3(f)(i) of the terms of the APA offer basically says that if you own a parcel of Qantas shares, and you agree to accept the bid for a few of them, then that actually means you have agreed to ALL of them going, no matter what number you put down on the acceptance.

One question: Is that legal?!!?

This may get very interesting.


oh and btw F.O.G!!

[roamingwolf]

i reckon apa thinks qantas is a good buy and worth all the debt so they will be back.I also reckon we should call them the Herpes bank because you can get rid of them for a while but theres little you can do to stop them coming back.

['holic]

"The Australian Securities and Investments Commission this morning queried the suggestion in the Takeovers Panel media release dated 7 May 2007 that as a result of clause 7.3(f)(i) of the terms of the APA offer, APA may have met the 50 per cent threshold prior to the close of the APA offer," Qantas said.Just doing a little bit of light reading of the APA offer

http://www.airlinepartnersaustralia.com.au/bidders_statement.htm

and yes, clause 7.3 (f)(i) says
By signing and returning, faxing or emailing the Acceptance Form, or otherwise accepting this Offer in accordance with these Offer Terms, you will be deemed to have:
(i) irrevocably accepted this Offer in respect of all your Qantas Shares despite any difference between that number and the number of Qantas Shares shown on the Acceptance Form;
but if you read on a bit further to section 10 'Acceptances by Transferees and Nominees' which I believe any fund comes under, it is allowable for parcels of shares to be accepted, rather than all shares owned. So unless they are saying that retail investors neglected to accept the offer for $500 odd million in shares I can't see that they have an argument.

Admittedly, I only aspire to be an apprentice to a bush lawyer:rolleyes:
You couldn't kill this thing with a f#cking axe.

[prairiegirl]

The series of events over the weekend have done nothing more than tell the entire world that QF is now 'in play'.

If the APA deal does finally die on Wednesday, rest assured, the vultures that are circling somewhere over HNL, will begin coming in to roost on Thursday.

'Heyman!' - is not just for recognizing your neighbours across the street anymore.

I am devastated by all this. I love QF. But - I am a realist. If you step back from the emotions attached to this mayhem, the writing is on the wall. The whole world now knows that there are opportunities down your way.

'Chuh Chuh Chuh Changes', as one David Bowie used to say, are on the way.

Wishing all the best possible outcome.

[assasin8]

These guys are like zombies... They just won't stay down !
Now, I know it takes a stake through the heart for vampires (they're obviously not vampires... NO hearts !)...
But how do you kill zombies ???

[MarkD]

Now that the shares are in the $3 zone, isn't about now the time when ordinary Aussie battlers should be buying shares in QF to fend off these foreign devils and make Qantas an properly Australian airline?

[Lodown]

I think APA is going to have a tough time trying to make a bid for Qantas again.
First of all, their sources of inside information: C level execs and boardmembers, if not sent packing, will at the very least, receive a good and much deserved rap over the knuckles. Personally, I can't see them staying.
Second, if APA thought it was such a great deal, pre-takeover-attempt and current shareholders will be pissed with the doom and gloom espoused by the Qantas execs for the past few years. Was it a cheap stunt to keep the share price down? Surely ethical questions will be asked as to whether the executives ran Qantas for the benefit of the shareholders or for the executives. There's a big perceptual difference between seeking foreign investment and selling the farm.
Third, and most importantly, maybe the takeover of Qantas blindsided Canberra politicians so soon after those same politicians had reconfirmed their unequivical support through legislative protection to the "Australian" airline for a number of overseas routes. Maybe the politicians were forewarned about the impending sale prior to granting their support then, but it didn't look that way to me. Those politicians won't be so keen to maintain that future protection knowing that Qantas executives are willing to sell out to anyone with the most bucks. Qantas is just like other companies that don't get protection and yet can remain financially viable and sought after. Qantas has been an "Australian" airline to the executives only when it suits their purpose. Had the sale gone through, the political quagmire of protected overseas routes to a foreign owned airline would have been embarrassing. I can't blame the politicians if they feel just a slight bit hoodwinked. Who's to say they won't go out of their way in the near future to remove government protection?
I think when next APA consider the purchase of Qantas, it will be a markedly changed company in a different market environment.