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11th Feb 2007, 02:35
Pilots turning scarce as demand takes wing
After years of layoffs and pay cuts, expansion of air travel creates shortage of qualified crews

By Julie Johnsson
Tribune staff reporter
Published February 4, 2007

For the first time since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, all major U.S. airlines are hiring pilots or recalling those laid off during the industry's five-year downturn.

But the airlines are discovering that many of the 10,000 pilots who lost their jobs during those bleak years aren't interested in returning to their old lives.

Many pilots, faced with salary cuts of 35 percent or more, moved to overseas carriers, such as Emirates Airline and Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. Others took higher-paying jobs with overnight carriers such as FedEx Corp. and United Parcel Service Inc.

Joe Marquardt, 50, left a 17-year career at Northwest Airlines last year for Emirates, as the Minnesota-based carrier phased out the DC-9 jets he flew.

He already had lost one-third of his salary in pay cuts, Marquardt said, and he faced a demotion to a smaller plane, which would mean another pay reduction.

"It got to the point where we couldn't keep the house," Marquardt said.

Now, Marquardt enjoys a life of golf and beachcombing in Dubai, as well as the free housing provided by Emirates, which employs him as a Boeing 777 captain.

"It's hard to match that back home," Marquardt said.

After slashing pilot jobs and pay to survive the last downturn, old-line carriers may find it tougher to hire pilots to keep pace with the industry's rebound, experts say. In fact, they appear to be facing a shortage in the decade ahead.

The trend is a byproduct of the loss of financial security and prestige suffered by the airlines that have long dominated U.S. travel, increased recruiting of American pilots by foreign carriers and the global boom in commercial aviation and airliner sales.

"It is a wild and crazy time, and it's really just begun," said Kit Darby, an expert on pilot hiring trends and pay. He is president of Atlanta's Air Inc.

About one-third of the world's airline pilots work in the United States, the largest market for air travel. But U.S. pilots are becoming hot commodities for overseas carriers, which need large numbers of experienced pilots to fly the fleets of wide-body aircraft they have on order from Chicago's Boeing Co. and Europe's Airbus SAS.

Boeing predicts that the total number of planes used by airlines around the world will more than double by 2025, to 35,970. To keep pace, Darby estimates airlines will need to hire more than 210,000 pilots globally, more than double the number currently working.

Moving the mandatory retirement for pilots to age 65 from age 60, as proposed by the Federal Aviation Administration last week, will help a little. Darby estimates that relaxing retirement rules will reduce U.S. airlines' hiring by about 3,800 jobs during the next five years.

"That's only a drop in the bucket compared to the need," he said. "There are many, many airplanes coming, and with them large increases in air service."



Demand from light jets

That's not including the competition for pilots that airlines will face from air taxi operators flying a new breed of jets that carry between three and five passengers.

Merrill Lynch estimates that 925 of these aircraft, known as very light jets, will be delivered by 2010. That's up from the 21 jets that rolled out of factories in 2006. And all of these planes will need certified jet pilots in their cockpits.

Don Osmundson, vice president for flight operations at Florida-based DayJet Corp., said his company plans to hire about five pilots for each of the 239 Eclipse 500 jets it has on order.

Once it passes regulatory hurdles, DayJet plans to fly business travelers to destinations of their choosing in Florida and, eventually, other states in the Southeast. DayJet doesn't plan to fly on weekends, and its pilots will return to their home bases every evening.

Osmundson hopes that will be a draw for airline pilots, sick of a vagabond lifestyle that involves days away from home. He says DayJet has received 1,700 applications, many of them from airline pilots who either opted for early retirement or were forced from their jobs at age 60.

"The fact is that even at the major carriers, the job is not what it used to be," said Osmundson, who's a former vice president at Continental Airlines.

Many pilots still aspire to fly large aircraft for major carriers such as Elk Grove Township-based United Airlines, which has about 6,500 pilots, down from more than 10,000 in 2001. Captains at these carriers still earn six figures and have jobs that let them see the world.

But such jobs are no longer considered aviation's plum posts: Pilots' hours are longer, and their pay is lower.

United Airlines has offered jobs to all of the 2,172 pilots it furloughed, industry parlance for "laid off," during the downturn. About 1,000 of them have returned to the airline, while others passed on the initial job offers.

Now, United is moving through its list of furloughed pilots, whittled down to about 800, for a second and final time as it plans to add 300 pilots this year.

"Guys have to make a decision whether they're coming back to United or not," said Steven Derebey, a Boeing 737 captain at United and spokesman for its pilots union. "When they reach the end of that[list], they will have to start looking to the outside for new pilots."

FedEx and UPS, whose pilots were once derided as "cargo dogs," have long since displaced United Airlines, US Airways and Delta Air Lines at the top of the pay scale in the United States. The most senior pilots at the freight carriers earn about $40,000 more annually than their counterparts at the old-line carriers.

Foreign flag carriers, who would not have contemplated luring pilots from the major U.S. airlines during the 1990s, are holding recruiting drives here.

Cathay Pacific hired about 55 American pilots last year to fly its Boeing 747 cargo planes, said Nick Rhodes, director of flight operations for the Hong Kong-based airline.

Cathay, which has a cargo base in Chicago, plans to add 65 U.S. pilots this year and close to 100 in 2008, said Rhodes. About 10 percent of the carrier's 2,100 pilots are Americans, most of whom joined the airline during the past three to four years.

The six major U.S. airlines are adding pilots to replace those lost to retirement and attrition, and to keep operations moving smoothly as they keep their airplanes in the air for longer stretches of time.

So far, Continental Airlines and Delta Air Lines are the only two who are seeking new pilots. Continental Airlines plans to hire 336 pilots in 2007, after adding 491 in 2006. Delta Air Lines, which saw a large number of pilots take early retirement, plans to hire 200 pilots during 2007.

American Airlines, meanwhile, began recalling the first of its furloughed pilots in January. The nation's largest airline plans to rehire 70 pilots through April, then add about 30 pilots per month after that.

US Airways plans to recall 284 pilots this year, while Northwest Airlines says it will rehire 150 pilots in the first six months of 2007.

The carriers will need to step up hiring as they replenish their aircraft fleets, something Boeing executives predict will happen during the next two years. And that's when the real hiring crunch will begin, Darby predicted.



Training adds to cost

Airlines will face large training costs to bring on the new cadres of pilots, an expense most haven't encountered since 2001. And any shortages could give pilots unions additional leverage to seek higher wages from the carriers.

"It's a huge need, and they're going to be working hard to solve it," Darby said.

Others are more optimistic.

"It's possible you'll see some spot shortages, but I really don't think you'll see long-term shortages," said economist Daniel Kasper, managing director and head of the transportation practice at LECG Group, a Boston-based consulting group.

"To the extent that airlines are having trouble finding pilots, salaries will go up, and that will draw military pilots."

Even so, old-line carriers no longer can claim a monopoly on hiring the best and the brightest pilots.

The best recruiters, the overseas airliners are discovering, are the pilots themselves. Marquardt, for one, has started a blog for pilots pondering following in his footsteps.

Cathay Pacific is drawing pilots in their mid-30s from the likes of United Airlines, who are impatient to fly the new Boeing 777 and 747 aircraft. They would have to wait a decade for such jets at American carriers, which reserve their biggest aircraft for pilots with the most seniority.

"Young pilots don't think about [pensions] or medical care. They just want to strap themselves into a new 777," Rhodes said.

Huck
11th Feb 2007, 02:55
Because pensions are not worth the paper they're written on here in the states, mayhap....

F4F
11th Feb 2007, 06:53
"Young pilots don't think about [pensions] or medical care. They just want to strap themselves into a new 777,"
Boys Just Wanna Have Fun, so goes the song... or has the whole thing to do with penis size :E
Finally what is the ideal career?
To make it an ideal balance, start on single or twin turboprop stuff, move on to jets, move to long haul ops, then back to short haul and take care of house and family, enjoy pension and the final flight. What a fantastic bore :cool:

LLuke
11th Feb 2007, 08:11
Really interesting article. I still expect, however, that US-expats will simply return to the US when jobs become available at 'home'. This will probably be good for the T&C of airliners that depend on expats.

fireflybob
11th Feb 2007, 09:39
Well it's just nice to wake up to some good news for pilots! Long overdue methinks!

parabellum
12th Feb 2007, 01:57
This thread has been running in the Fragrant Harbour forum for quite a while now- same title.

Ignition Override
12th Feb 2007, 04:55
LLuke: That is possible.
If the pilots who went overseas are on furlough, their job might still be available.

But in most situations, they can only pass up the first of two recall notices, in order to keep their job back home (except for those on a longer military contract). From what guys tell me, the second recall is their last chance, unless a military commitment lasts longer.

If a pilot is overseas and says "no thank you" to the second recall, in many cases he would no longer have his old job in the US unless he starts at the beginning as a new-hire. He is probably years older than the other applicants. Many of those guys are probably over 40 years old; they must be with a US airline, in many cases for 25 years and last until age 55, in order to have a decent (who knows what it would be worth?) retirement and normal medical benefits.

The competition, just for an interview at SWA, Fedex or UPS appears to be extreme.
There are guys, at least one of whom I've flown with, all with truly superb qualifications and attitudes, who had no luck being invited to an interview or were not hired at those airlines, and believe that they all had the B-737 type when they interviewed at SWA.

LLuke
12th Feb 2007, 07:46
Ignition Override wrote:
If a pilot is overseas and says "no thank you" to the second recall

Just doubt many would let it pass. Even with a paycut, I know what my family would prefer.

Was 2 weeks ago in NRT and heard first hand about the sad stories of 25% paycuts from a NW colleague. Guess we can talk about shortage once we see the T&C's go up. Just curious where they will improve first...my bet is with EK and similar located companies.

alexban
12th Feb 2007, 16:58
So Marquardt went from a DC-9 to an Emirates 777 captain, in less than a year? How did he do that? Was he a 777 captain already ?:confused:

overstress
12th Feb 2007, 17:01
So Marquardt went from a DC-9 to an Emirates 777 captain, in less than a year? How did he do that?

Took a conversion course :confused: :confused:

galdian
13th Feb 2007, 14:20
wee one (so many exclamation marks, so little ...??) and others
I'll bite!

Do you know the full background of the person you're disparaging??
Maybe he WAS 777 endorsed in a previous life??
Yes?? No?? Maybe??
I do not know - do you??

A small question about the big picture - why does an airline like EK, who trumpet themselves as, well, nothing less than the Second Coming and who are happy to trumpet that, well, they have recruited nothing but the "best of the best" in experience even HAVE to look at DEC??

Either MANAGEMENT have recruited crap pilots in the past who are incapable of being upgraded OR the present FLT OPS MANAGEMENT do not have the ability/talent to co-ordinate the upgrades of totally able, suitable and qualified candidates.
Hmmm - common mention of management there, wonder if that's significant??
Were I a betting man I'd go for the second option - there's heaps of "managers" out there when all people really need is a "Leader", someone whom they respect and want to follow.

So - back to a simple question: why are you having a go at individuals when it seems quite clear it is the EK management who seem more than content to have created this crap and have no resolve to fix it??

To clarify for any interested - I believe to "manage" is also to "lead", they go hand-in-hand; it seems I am in a (vast?) minority.

Regards to all.

cap10lobo
14th Feb 2007, 06:57
Perhaps some are thinking about whats a good rating for the next app..

And just maybe, 5-6 flights and 13 hour days isīnt that much of a joyride anymore..:}

Ignition Override
14th Feb 2007, 16:03
LLuke:
The Northwest pilots you spoke about somehow agreed to paycuts of 15%, then 25%. The net result is about 38-39%! Their DC-9 hourly Captain pay is the same as at AirTran. Incidentally, this was created as a low cost carrier, and bought out by ValuJet, so they could force the flying public to forget about, or never be aware of the former ValueJet name.

Anyway, there seems to be a misunderstanding, or lack of info about how severe the paycuts are at one airline over here.
Does this put it in a totally different light?

The media often forgets or only hears (from a company) about one of two sharp paycuts. The public assumes that the second (reported) paycut is the only one.

Emirates Airlines supposedly has a former NWA Base Chief Pilot in their Flightcrew hiring department.

winkle
14th Feb 2007, 20:25
what about the fun of flying and life in general or are we all slaves under a different guise that we just hav'nt seen yet.

FlyVMO
14th Feb 2007, 21:55
I have friends working at several regional carriers here in the US, and it seems to be the case that these companies are badly in need of new recruits. I've been told by two friends that they could walk my resume in, and even with my lack of multi time, I would be almost guaranteed a job-the caveat being the following sentence in both cases-"you don't want to work for this company". My impression is that there are enough pilots to satisfy demand at the better companies, but that pilots can afford in many cases not to work for companies with a rep for treating their employees poorly.
It will be interesting to see how this develops over the next few years.
As far as pensions go? I've seen enough here in the last few years with the legacy carriers dumping their obligations via bankruptcy. I will never trust any company, wherever I'm working, to take care of me in that regard. Its up to you to take care of yourself at this point as sad as that may be. Not that I know a whole lot about investing, but I know enough to ask someone who does when I get that far.

hawkeye
15th Feb 2007, 08:17
With all the new aircraft expected over the next few years, recruiting inexperienced FOs to fly 777s may not be a problem. The problem will be finding enough guys (and gals) to fill the left seats. Once you have flown your 777 for a couple of years the novelty wears off. Then you start asking about pay and conditions. Now you are an experienced 777 driver and, as such, a marketable commodity who can offer their services to the highest bidder. The competition will not be at the bottom; it will be at the top.