PDA

View Full Version : Murder UK


The SSK
14th Dec 2006, 11:40
If you’re old enough to remember when the only British crime series on TV were Dixon and No Hiding Place, you might recall that robbery, with or without violence, was the staple fare. I think I can remember maybe a single murder in Dock Green, perhaps one or two more investigated by Inspector Lockhart and his pals. That sort of thing was left to the Americans.

Didn’t seem to happen much in real life, either, if the papers were anything to go by.

So I checked the figures. At the end of the fifties, there were about 250 homicides a year in the UK. The current figure is about 750. In 2002 it topped 1000, but the total was boosted by all Shipman’s victims being lumped together (no insensitivity intended).

Not many things get cheaper over time. Human life seems to be an exception.

PS before this descends into a Capital Punishment thread (as it probably will) the yearly figures correlate fairly well with a straight line.

tony draper
14th Dec 2006, 11:48
Yer, I recal when a murder anywhere was front page news, hell nowadays it hardly makes page three in the local rag, people often claim there is no more crime now than there was fifty years ago, but that is patent nonesence or judicious tweaking of figures,which is precisely why politicians love numbers percentages figures ,because they can be fiddled, and is also the reason our policemen have to spend large amounts of their time filling in forms rather than feeling collars and kicking arses.
:cool:

Curious Pax
14th Dec 2006, 12:27
Out of curiosity I had a look for similar US figures, aspects of their justice system being of interest to some of the more hard line members of the JB community. They will prove whatever you wish:

California - population=33.8 million; 2004 murders=2392 (0.007% of the population)
North Dakota - population=642,200; 2004 murders=9 (0.01% of the population)
UK - population=60 million; 2004 murders approx 820 (we don't seem able to use calendar years!) (0.01% of the population)

Interestingly the trend in the US seems to be downwards - again you could probably find many contradictory reasons for this if you looked hard enough.

Wyler
14th Dec 2006, 12:56
Oh for goodness sake people. :ugh: :ugh: :ugh: :ugh:

1000 murders in a year in a country of 60 million. Hardly reason to lock yourself in the cellar is it?

How many people are run over by cars?


I think even the Daily Mail would struggle to float this one.:rolleyes:

bjcc
14th Dec 2006, 16:25
"I think I can remember maybe a single murder in Dock Green,"

Perhaps you should watch the film The Blue Lamp. It was what Dixon of Dock Green was based on, and there was a murder, that of George Dixon.

"you might recall that robbery, with or without violence, was the staple fare"

Robbery is theft where violence is either threatened or used, Robbery without violence is called theft.

Polikarpov
14th Dec 2006, 16:34
Of course, there's also population growth to consider, which is also on a steady upward trend (not, as a percentage, as rapid as those figures you have quoted for murder - but may still account for a 20% increase, proportionally).

1950 50m
1970 55m
1990 57m
2006 60m

Loose rivets
14th Dec 2006, 16:40
.....and anyone that believes that is as daft as...well, the CIA for example.


a ratio of 5:6, and the nation is transformed????? Heck, I've said all this before, but when someone finally admits that there are over 100 m in the UK, remember, I said it first.:8

Bo Nalls
14th Dec 2006, 18:03
Out of curiosity I had a look for similar US figures, aspects of their justice system being of interest to some of the more hard line members of the JB community. They will prove whatever you wish:

California - population=33.8 million; 2004 murders=2392 (0.007% of the population)
North Dakota - population=642,200; 2004 murders=9 (0.01% of the population)
UK - population=60 million; 2004 murders approx 820 (we don't seem able to use calendar years!) (0.01% of the population)


CP, I think your calcs are wrong

Calif - 33.8 million; 2004 murders=2392 (0.007%)
N Dak - 642,200; 2004 murders=9 (0.0014%)
UK - 60 million; 2004 murders approx 820 (0.0013%)

stagger
14th Dec 2006, 19:09
England & Wales Homicide Rate (per million)

1900 9.6
1910 8.1
1920 8.3
1930 7.5
1940 ..
1950 7.9
1955 6.3
1960 6.2
1965 6.8
1970 8.1
1975 10.3
1980 12.5
1985 12.5
1990 13.1
1995 14.5
1997 14.1
2005 13.6


Peak was in the mid-1990s.

For comparison, England and Wales has a lower homicide rate than...

Australia 2000 - rate 18 per million.
Canada 2005 - rate 20 per million
USA 2005 - 48 per million
Scotland 2004 - 27 per million

As Curious Pax points out - the US homicide rate has fallen considerably in recent years. In cities all across the US - not just in those with "zero-tolerance" policing strategies like New York. It is not clear why this fall has occurred.

pigboat
14th Dec 2006, 19:25
It is not clear why this fall has occurred.

Murder is generally a young man's game. Aging population, perhaps?

frostbite
14th Dec 2006, 20:07
Seems to me population density* is nearly always a factor.

Lucky us in the SE with Prescott's plans!







*Silly comments from usual suspects follow.

tony draper
14th Dec 2006, 20:14
I recal posting a item here a while back on the rather controvercial theory that the fall in crime in New York could not all be credited to zero tollerance policing,but that the advent of free abortions mosty taken advantage of by the lower orders 25 years ago or so means a entire generation of would be scallywags were never born.
Eugenics anybody?
Incidently last month there were six killing/murders /manslaughters or whatever the courts eventualy call them within a twenty mile radius of me,and I don't think the North east is particularly bad in terms of crime compared to some other areas.
:uhoh:

TheDesertFerret
14th Dec 2006, 23:02
Anybody able to give us some stats on the trend in the murders solved that see successful prosecution? Thats got to be on the up.

It pleases me immensely that, with the advance in DNA technology, there are plentiful unconvicted rapists from years ago who thought they'd got away with it are now either convicted or living in fear of it.

stagger
14th Dec 2006, 23:57
The conviction rate for homicides has always been pretty high - not sure if DNA evidence has made much difference to the overall conviction rate - although it has been important in a number of high profile cases.

For most homicides it's not hard to identify the main suspect (since it's not usually a stranger).

For example, for homicides within the family - DNA evidence placing a suspect at the scene may not be that helpful (unless it's blood) since the suspect may live at the scene.

Curious Pax
15th Dec 2006, 07:44
CP, I think your calcs are wrong

Calif - 33.8 million; 2004 murders=2392 (0.007%)
N Dak - 642,200; 2004 murders=9 (0.0014%)
UK - 60 million; 2004 murders approx 820 (0.0013%)

Mea culpa - I plead finger trouble. I used a calculator too!!!:{

selfin
15th Dec 2006, 07:59
Anybody able to give us some stats on the trend in the murders solved that see successful prosecution? Thats got to be on the up.

It pleases me immensely that, with the advance in DNA technology, there are plentiful unconvicted rapists from years ago who thought they'd got away with it are now either convicted or living in fear of it.

Conviction rate for rapists is less than 5%. NPO addressing that here http://www.liedetector.ws

Choxolate
15th Dec 2006, 09:36
Conviction rate for rapists is less than 5%. NPO addressing that here http://www.liedetector.ws
Hmmm - so what you are saying is that only 5% of rapists are convicted - the other 95% presumably got away with it - evidence please. 'Coz i thought it was that 5% of alleged rapes ended up with a conviction - not the same thing at all. I am not saying that rape is not an awful crime and that SOME guilty men are getting off scot free but where is the evidence that 95% of the men who actually committed the crime were not found guilty??