What a way to serve a market?

[B A Lert]

This story is in today's Hobart Mercury. HIH can the airlines allow this to happen, especially when the state is so reliant on reliable and economic air links?:confused:



THERE may still be room at the inn for the forthcoming Christmas week in Hobart -- but there is no way for anyone to get here.

At least not directly from Melbourne.

In an extraordinary situation, no seats are available on any flight into Hobart from Melbourne on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday next week.

The situation is creating chaos for business travellers scheduled to hold meetings in Hobart next week, who now find they cannot get to Tasmania's capital city except on Sunday or Thursday.

It is believed to be the first time such a lack of airline capacity has affected Hobart for a sustained period.

Urgent talks were held yesterday between Tourism Tasmania chief executive Felicia Mariani and Qantas about improving access to Hobart.

Both Qantas and Jetstar in the past year have reduced the number of daily flights and total passengers able to fly to Tasmania, particularly Hobart.

State Tourism Minister Paula Wriedt said yesterday she was perturbed by the looming shutdown in access from Melbourne to Hobart next week.

"I will continue to actively encourage airlines to increase flights but at the end of the day it is unfortunately a commercial decision that each airline must make," Ms Wriedt said.

Tourism Council of Tasmania chief executive Daniel Leesong said while it was encouraging to see incoming planes fully booked, it did Tasmania no good if travellers who wanted to come here were turned away because of flight access problems.

"In some ways it's a great problem to have, but it needs to be resolved if it continues," Mr Leesong said.

The first flight from Melbourne to Hobart next week is on Thursday.

But even then the cheapest one-way ticket is a hefty $219 per person with Jetstar, with prices not falling below $200 until Christmas Eve.

And the flight access problem from Melbourne is not confined to Hobart. Even the alternative of flying from Melbourne to Launceston and hiring a car to drive to Hobart for business appointments is out, because all flights to Launceston for the same three days are booked out.

But none of the three domestic airlines -- Jetstar, Virgin Blue or Qantas -- is prepared to put extra flights on to alleviate the bottleneck.

Qantas is however looking at switching the type of planes that fly the Melbourne-Hobart route next week from 737s to 767s, which would enable it to offer 24 extra seats per flight.

Plenty of flights are still available in the other direction, from Hobart to the mainland.

[3 Holer]

But even then the cheapest one-way ticket is a hefty $219 per person with Jetstar, with prices not falling below $200 until Christmas Eve.


That's disgraceful and if I lived on the Apple Isle, I would want answers ! It really is back to the two-airline policy.

I'm flying up to BNE tomorrow with DJ for only $115 (all up) one way and I booked three days ago. How does that work? No wonder Airline Partners Australia paid AUD11.1 billion for QF. Peter Little must be rubbing his hands together with glee!:D

[max autobrakes]

It's all about choice, isn't it?

[ditzyboy]

But even then the cheapest one-way ticket is a hefty $219 per person

Totally agree that the lack of seats is appalling. BUT the above comment just goes to show how ignorant most Australians have become about aviation. Hefty? Please! In real terms people paid more than four times that 10-15 years ago. Yeah the LCCs have all but taken over but that is partly due to people demanding to pay 1980s airfares.

Qantas/QFLink always put on more flights to HBA and LST during Christmas. Where has the love gone?

I guess the 737s are busy doing SIN-CNS and SIN-DPS-PER...

[B A Lert]

...I guess the 737s are busy doing SIN-CNS and SIN-DPS-PER...

Where have you been? 3K (Jetstar Asia) operate SIN/DRW/CNS on behalf of JQ with A320 based in WSSS while no part of the QF group operates to the other routing you quote.

[chimbu warrior]

QF certainly are operating the 737 PER-DPS-SIN; not sure about SIN-CNS. Guess they figure that offers a better opportunity for a profit.

[ditzyboy]

Where have you been? 3K (Jetstar Asia) operate SIN/DRW/CNS on behalf of JQ with A320 based in WSSS while no part of the QF group operates to the other routing you quote.

Where have I been? I operated the first of the new twice weekly SIN-DPS-PER (QF075/076) flights last Saturday. Also over the peak Xmas period Qantas is operating a 73H CNS-SIN (QF223/224) on Saturdays.

Check the online skeds and get your facts straight, mate. :ok:

[Capn Bloggs]

Ditzy, rumour has it that QFLink, in the superhairdryers, will be back down that way shortly! :ok:

[ditzyboy]

Really?! :D

[the truth....]

The article says "Qantas is however looking at switching the type of planes that fly the Melbourne-Hobart route next week from 737s to 767s, which would enable it to offer 24 extra seats per flight."


Now its been a while since I was on the 767 but from memory they hold just over 250 or so depending on the config. Surely the 737 doesn't hold 226? Yep another great piece of reporting. I'll stand corrected but hopefully I can stay seated. Anyhow...............

[Sunfish]

The current Tasmanian experience is a classic example of the importance of air travel to economic developement.

Now simply take Tasmania's case and multiply it tenfold and apply it to every Australian city except Sydney. This is the matter that has been driving me nuts ever since I learned about Qantas's stranglehold on 747 turnarounds in the late 70's (which Ansett was not allowed to break).

International business investment cannot easily flow to any city that does not have a plentiful supply of capacity on direct flights from the investing area. In Melbournes case, travelling from London or the U.S. via Sydney effectively makes Melbourne approximately three hours "further" from those centres of investment than Sydney - which has, and continues to cause in my opinion, economic damage to Victoria.

On a personal level, I've lost count of the number of British acquaintances who have opined to me that its "so hard" to visit Melbourne during their Australian travels.

[roamingwolf]

BALert ...where have you been sunshine , get out of your office cubicle and if you are going to have a shot at someone get your facts right son.

You must be happy with the amount the board is getting with this takeover ?

[B A Lert]

OK guys. I was wrong and caught out by the addition of some extra flying. I sincerely aplogise.

That said, the extra flying is from places that couldn't help the Tasmanian problem with these services originating in Perth and Cairns. To assist with extra flying to the Island Qantas would need to have the spare aircraft on the south-eastern corner of the Mainland or put on some very unproductive flying to get aircraft into position.

[Truckmasters]

It will depend which 767 they use. I've seen one recently that was in a 180 seat config.

[MELKBQF]

It will depend which 767 they use. I've seen one recently that was in a 180 seat config.


Qantas have 3 configs on the 767s. The longhaul ones are in a 25J 204Y config, The domestic GE machines are in a 30J 222Y config and the RR powered ones are in a 30J 214Y config. The 738s are 12J 156Y.

[wirgin blew]

It's all about choice, isn't it?

lmao

On a more serious note DJ could perhaps pull a flight out of the MEL-ADL market depending on those loads and switch it over but then you would have to try and fill it in a couple of days.

[HOBAY 3]

An excerpt from an article in Friday's Mercury states that Qantas will not be scheduling any extra services because "the balance was already right". If the balance is already right, then how come Jetstar have just added one off flights on Christmas Day and New Year's Day? Hobart must be the only destination in the world (other than the north pole!) to require additional flights Christmas Day!!! They must be confident of selling them too. Every seat is Jet Flex Fare only! :mad:

[Johhny Utah]

In that case I guess a lot of the people on here complaining will have to reclasify themeselves as either;
a) those who desperately need a seat & are thus willing to pay whatever price is needed, OR
b) those who are clamouring for cheap seats only, and aren't prepared to pay the premium the market commands.

So - if the additional aircraft aren't full then I can only assume that a lot of the venting by the Tasmanian public was just a lot of hot air...

[HOBAY 3]

Johhny,

I think most people would be classified as either;
type (c): business deligates scheduled to have a meeting in Hobart, which will have to be Christmas Day or not at all because that's the only day with seats available, OR
type (d): holiday makers who mostly don't want to travel on Christmas Day, and if they do, don't want the double whammy of having to pay jet flex for the privilege.
I'm sure plenty of people would buy flexible fares if the flight was on a day and time that they wanted to fly, just like the thousands that have been purchased for travel to Hobart this week!!!
:mad:

[ditzyboy]

Qantas would need to have the spare aircraft on the south-eastern corner of the Mainland or put on some very unproductive flying to get aircraft into position.

How do you think the aircraft get to PER and CNS for the once or twice weekly flight? With a fleet the size of Qantas' it is relatively easy to rotate aircraft through the network while conforming to, or close to, the full schedule.

[Normasars]

Tassie always has been the thorn in the side of QF.
They have never made money on HB or LT cos they treat these ports with contempt. JQ is no different. If an a/c goes 'tech' ANYWHERE it's always Tassie that suffers.
Engineering "Op's?"
Op's "Go ahead"
Engineering "XYZ is U/S"
Op's "Thanks for that. We'll CX LT/HB and send that to ......."
Lt was always AN and now it's a VB goldmine. Likewise HB. After QF had suffered too much out of LT, they put SAA in there with 146's and J class and it actually started to make money, quite a lot of money.
Anyway after another failed attempt at trying to save face, QF 737's go back to LT AGAIN and that exercise lasted for about 18 months.
Then the master stroke. Let's take the B737 out of there again with its J class and replace it(AGAIN) with a DASH 8. Geee!!!!!!!!!!!!! Now that really is looking after your market share:ugh: :ugh: :ugh:
It's only a matter of time until tha ROO with jets all but disappears from the skies of Tassie. The Q400 although a very nice machine will never have the pax appeal of a jet.
QF yield/scheduling have no one to blame but themselves for the p1ss poor reputation they have, and always have had in Tassie.
"You reap what you sew"

[WilliamOK]

Wouldn't it just be better for Qantas to use the 717 they have seeing as QantasLink seems to be doing these routes now? Or are they all tied up with FIFO work?

Maybe they have too much capacity but it would seem tomake more sense than using the Q400.

Does Virgin still frequent this route?

[HOBAY 3]

Does Virgin still frequent this route?

Which route do you mean? Current schedule shows that DJ do daily HB-AD, daily HB-BN, double daily HB-SY and up to 6 daily HB-ML. To LT they have up to 5 daily LT-ML and up to 2 daily LT-SY, all at very friendly timings.

Despite an increasing trend, JQ have dropped 3 weekly HB-AD (they don't do the route anymore - unprofitable appareantly, but DJ seem to do nicely with their daily year round service!), a weekly HB-BN, 3 weekly HB-SY and 2 weekly HB-ML from the same time last year (and last year there were no extra flights for peak season). So any wonder there are zero seats remaining when they were full last year and now we have 3440 fewer seats per week! :mad:

[WilliamOK]

So if they are getting good numbers on the route, why do they keep dropping services? What large expenses can there be flying to Tassie? Must be something there that I don't see......

[Eastwest Loco]

Well folks, I hate to be the bearer of sad tidings, but there aint nothin new in the zoo here.

As long as I can remember the Tassie Christmas situation has been this way - rock solid in before 25DEC and rock solid out from 26 December onwards.

An airline Shambles Planner that schedules extra capacity in over such a period where the aeroplane will most likely return with a very low load factor should be dragged out of their chair and given a severe thacking.

This is one of the few times of the year when Airlines can actually make a decent living out of servicing Tasmania which accounts for around 3% of the overall Australian domestic market. We should be glad that we get a service at all.

The loads into/out of HBA will tend to heavy southbound up to New Years and then heavy outbound thereafter, caused by the extra traffic generated by the Sydney Hobart yacht race and associated events around Constipation Dock such as the "Taste of Tasmania" festival etc.

The pattern is repeated on the DPO and BWT routes as well. This has been the same every year since Viscounts roamed the earth and I dare say will be the same for years to come.

Basically, we choose to live on a rock in the Southern Ocean and as such must put up with the peaks in transport demand.

Oh - and williamOK - the loads may be good, but the yield for most of the year sucks badly.

Best all

EWL

[Pete Conrad]

Oh - and williamOK - the loads may be good, but the yield for most of the year sucks badly.

Which mob are you talking about EWL?............J* or DJ?

[Eastwest Loco]

The lot Pete.

ZL Ratlink QF mainline DJ and JQ.

Generally the amount of high yield passengers as an overall percentage of the load who choose to buy a fully flexible fare is much lower than say a MEL SYD or SYD BNE type run.

Even with the last seats going at top fare Southbound at time of the year like now, you still would be hard pressed to fund the lighter/lower yielding load on the return leg if you threw more aeroplanes/capacity at the place.

Any spare capacity would be more profitable thrown at trunk routes with proven 2 directional demand.

Best regards

EWL

[HOBAY 3]

This constant Hobart has no yield banter is just rubbish. :mad:
The fact is, DJ have an operating cost of $0.08 per km. On a Hobart-Melbourne service (618km), using a 737-800 (177 seats), even if every seat was sold at the cheapest Blue Saver fare ($89), the aircraft would only need to be 55.6% full to be making a profit. Average loads for the year are over 80%, and closer to 90% at this time of year.
Saying that the last few seats were sold at top fare is rubbish too. Fully Flexible is all that has been available for months, and they've sold them all! They even had to add connecting flights MEL-ADL-HBA because there were zero seats left - that's right - all Fully Flexible sold. You can't ask for more than that! You only need to sell 34 Fully Flexible Fares ($259) to be making a profit, and they would have done that easily without the remaining Flexi Savers and Blue Savers.
Having one direction at 100% load factor for days on end hampers loads in the other direction. Tasmanians wanting to goto the mainland for a few days can't, becuase there is no way for them to get back, so they don't make the trip in the first place!!!

[Goldfishinabowl]

I flew home on the 1835-2015 SYD-LST DJ flight last night, it was a 737-800 and was chock-a-block. Nice to see everyone piling off into the airport. We did a beautiful big turn right over the airport after flying in over north-east Tassie. What a beautiful thing. There's nothing like the Tassie air.

[Buckshot]

The fact is, DJ have an operating cost of $0.08 per km. On a Hobart-Melbourne service (618km), using a 737-800 (177 seats), even if every seat was sold at the cheapest Blue Saver fare ($89), the aircraft would only need to be 55.6% full to be making a profit.

Actually, Hobay, this "constant Hobart has no yield banter" is not rubbish. The operating cost figures you quote are for DJ - a LCC. Mainline's operating costs are obviously more than this (significantly more as Dixon keeps telling us). Add to this the fact that you lose revenue seats to the FF program and international connecting fares which provide little or no revenue for the domestic leg. With only two flights a day, the capacity to recoup yield off J seats is significantly reduced. Much, if not most, of the pax into Hobart (especially this time of year) are only VFR (visiting friends and relatives) and backpackers - hardly the high yield pax you get on City Flyer routes. For that reason, ports like HB and LT are never going to be attractive to Full Service carriers like Mainline.

[cart_elevator]

A prediction:

Any Qantas terminal that doesnt currently have Qantas Quick-Check terminals installed,with the possible exception of DRW,will not be served by Qantas Mainline flights within a couple of years.

They have only invested in the technology in terminals that will have Mainline services,and havent bothered with the terminals that will only have Q Link and/or J* serving them in the future.

[HOBAY 3]

Actually, Hobay, this "constant Hobart has no yield banter" is not rubbish. The operating cost figures you quote are for DJ - a LCC. Mainline's operating costs are obviously more than this (significantly more as Dixon keeps telling us).

My post is referring to the following excerpt:

Tassie always has been the thorn in the side of QF.
They have never made money on HB or LT cos they treat these ports with contempt. JQ is no different. If an a/c goes 'tech' ANYWHERE it's always Tassie that suffers.
Engineering "Op's?"
Op's "Go ahead"
Engineering "XYZ is U/S"
Op's "Thanks for that. We'll CX LT/HB and send that to ......."
Lt was always AN and now it's a VB goldmine. Likewise HB.

That is why I gave figures for DJ.

Buckshot, your argument is simply music to my ears!

With only two flights a day, the capacity to recoup yield off J seats is significantly reduced.

That is why DJ are making so much money. Why would you pay QF for flexibility when it is impossible for them to give it to you? DJ can offer flexibility (provided all seats have not been sold!), thus sell plenty of Flexi Savers and Fully Flexible fares.

hardly the high yield pax you get on City Flyer routes.

The airline doesn't care if you buy full fare for a holiday or business trip. If business traffic is so good at this time of year, why do QF's CBR (arguably the highest yield destination in the network) schedules get cut so dramatically. They drop services to ADL, BNE and only operate a couple to SYD and MEL!

Add to this the fact that you lose revenue seats to the FF program and international connecting fares which provide little or no revenue for the domestic leg.

Every QF domestic route loses seats to FF and international connections, because QF is so SYD-centric!

WilliamOK, So if they are getting good numbers on the route, why do they keep dropping services?

Because whenever they start a new route, they have to cut something else. When they began BN-TL, they shunted the HB-BN to the 10PM slot. When they started AD-MC and AD-HM, they dropped AD-HB. When they started ML-TL and ML-BNK, they cut back ML-HB. When they took over SY-TL from QF, they cut back SY-HB. As Normasars says, Tassie is the lowest priority for QF group. Compare this with DJ who invest in HBA; with daily year round services to ADL and BNE, double daily to SYD, and up to five year round daily to MEL, with additional flights for peak season. Go DJ!!! :)

[VH-Cheer Up]

If business traffic is so good at this time of year, why do QF's CBR (arguably the highest yield destination in the network) schedules get cut so dramatically.

Because Parliament's in recess, so the lobbyists and their J-class clients don't need to keep trooping down there to ingratiate themselves?

[Hobo]

MELKBQF check your pm's.

[apacau]

A prediction:

Any Qantas terminal that doesnt currently have Qantas Quick-Check terminals installed,with the possible exception of DRW,will not be served by Qantas Mainline flights within a couple of years.

Adelaide doesn't have quick-check terminals in their brand spanking new terminal... Sorry but I think that just knocks your theory for six...

[Marauder]

I understand that QF is ready to install kiosks in ADL, but is in negotiation (read disagreement) with AAL over the location of them.

QF naturally wants its kiosks in proximity to its check in counters, whereas AAL want them all in a row, nex to VB

[MIss Behaviour]

Re the 'Quick Check' kiosks installation yet to happen in places like Darwin. It was my understanding that as each kiosk costs about $25K to install the airline was going to see how internet check took off first.

Why would management want to shell out that amount of money when the punters can do it for free on their own computer for nothing.

Mind you Quick Check is a bit of an oxymoron as it takes longer to check at one of those vs using a real person then if you've got baggage you've still got to line up to drop off your bag and that exercise takes the same time as doing the whole check-in process with a check-in agent.

[WilliamOK]

That's true. I went through the Virgin Check-in at Melbourne recently and luckily my flight was late, as it took longer than usual to check in (I was on a tight schedule anyway.)

It was slow and cumbersome to use, and sort of stupid, it's easy to make mistakes on them and then you have to go through and do it with an actual person anyway, I learnt last time I flew Qantas.

[HOBAY 3]

When will they ever learn? :ugh::ugh::ugh:

Hobart a no-fly zone Travel - The Mercury - The Voice of Tasmania (http://www.themercury.com.au/article/2009/09/16/97581_travel.html)

And JQ will be dropping a further 3 per week each direction off HBA-MEL from the end of October, as they need the aircraft for MEL-DRW in the wet season, when no-one goes there???? :mad::confused::ugh:

[blueloo]

there was something strange about the earlier parts of this thread....... the date... :\

[Keg]

It's not like QF have an excess of 767 capacity and crew at the moment to meet the demand or anything. :rolleyes:

[wirgin blew]

Your link needs fixing HOBAY but other than that as usual those in planning don't notice when the holidays are on and forget to adjust the schedule. At a time when all the carriers are crying poor you think they could find a plane for an extra return a day.

[Wod]

as usual those in planning don't notice when the holidays are on and forget to adjust the schedule


In fairness to the planners, that's not true. Holidays and special events are grist to the planners mill. All airlines, Tiger, VB, QF, Rex, JQ etc.

So is profit.

100% seat factor in bound at the start of an event, and 100% outbound at the end, is a 50% seat factor. And the punters hate fares based on 50% seat factors.

So it's about squeezing capacity out of downtime or foregone maintenance.

Not, perhaps rocket science, but commercially sound.



b

[HOBAY 3]

Your link needs fixing HOBAY

Done.

I will be looking forward to seeing how the various airlines increase capacity to Hobart for the upcoming peak season. The Hobart CEO is on record stating that discussions with airlines about Hobart-Gold Coast and Hobart-Newcastle services were underway earlier in the year. I wonder if either will eventuate?