AAWH what's up with the stock? [Archive]

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Heilhaavir

9th Nov 2006, 21:29

cptvac

9th Nov 2006, 21:57

Shares lost 24% since May 31st??? What's up with that?

http://money.aol.com/news/articles/_a/shares-of-atlas-air-fall-on-outlook/n20061109130009990017

http://money.aol.com/news/articles/_a/atlas-air-worldwide-3q-profit-slides/n20061108121909990018

Revenue is not important...ACMI is "strong", this can't be. Investors probably don't realize how crucial it is to be the "technological leader".

WhaleFR8

9th Nov 2006, 22:15

Revenue is not important...ACMI is "strong", this can't be. Investors probably don't realize how crucial it is to be the "technological leader".

....Or could it be that the steet has heard that Bobbbbbbb is trying to throw a monkey wrench into the works.

Revenue IS important but only when it causes a corresponding increase in Profits. An increase in revenue on the Polar side historically ALWAYS causes a larger loss due to the difficulties of stand alone scheduled service. The equation is clear for AAWH; less Polar = more profits.

Dr. Campbell was hugely mistaken when he gave his erroneous lecture on the increase of ATM (Available Ton Miles) creating value at/for Polar. The exact opposite is true. An increase of ATM causes a decrease of value of Polar - unless they have an block space agreement (read ACMI contract) such as the DHL one. Now Bobb wants that to go away to massage his huge ego - or possibly because his puppet-master Robin told him it would be a good thing. You guys better get a clue fast or you will all be working for Focus and the Atlas guys will be flying 5 more -400s and all the shiny new -8Fs.

WhaleFR8

9th Nov 2006, 22:49

The only sector at AAWH where revenue rose was the Scheduled service group (Polar Air Cargo).

- Scheduled service group revenue rose 14.4 percent

This makes my case. As I said above - more revenue for Polar equals less profits. For a stand alone scheduled service to generate revenue it takes a disproportionate amount of expense. This is accounting 101, something that Bobbbb must have missed in his six years of beer drinking at Auburn. Perhaps he went to finishing school at Enron U?

The stock is down because the street can see that there is STILL too much Polar. And too much Polar = less profits. One of the only things that Schuyler got close to right was just after he bought Polar he said he thought they would be a four -400 and two -200 airplane company. Perhaps four -400s is all that scheduled service can support in the current market.

WhaleDriver

10th Nov 2006, 00:29

The reason for the big dip is that revenue is way down since last year. Mostly due to the Military drop off. I would guess that this will continue to decline with the latest election results. The only sector at AAWH where revenue rose was the Scheduled service group (Polar Air Cargo).
---------------------------------------------
- Revenue from its air mobility command charter segment dipped 26.8 percent.
- Revenue from the aircraft, crew, maintenance, and insurance group declined 19 percent
- Revenue from commercial charter revenue dropped 47.5 percent.
- Scheduled service group revenue rose 14.4 percent

Boy, you got proof now. Polar is the best, our backbone....wait a minute. This is a comparison to the 3rd Q of 2005. Didn't something happen last year....hmmmm, can't put my finger on it....ohh yea, you guys were on strike for 16.6% of the 3rd quarter, and show a whopping 14.4% increase....awesome?

cptvac

10th Nov 2006, 00:39

....Or could it be that the steet has heard that Bobbbbbbb is trying to throw a monkey wrench into the works.

Revenue IS important but only when it causes a corresponding increase in Profits. An increase in revenue on the Polar side historically ALWAYS causes a larger loss due to the difficulties of stand alone scheduled service. The equation is clear for AAWH; less Polar = more profits.

Dr. Campbell was hugely mistaken when he gave his erroneous lecture on the increase of ATM (Available Ton Miles) creating value at/for Polar. The exact opposite is true. An increase of ATM causes a decrease of value of Polar - unless they have an block space agreement (read ACMI contract) such as the DHL one. Now Bobb wants that to go away to massage his huge ego - or possibly because his puppet-master Robin told him it would be a good thing. You guys better get a clue fast or you will all be working for Focus and the Atlas guys will be flying 5 more -400s and all the shiny new -8Fs.

Once again, Bobbbbbb is the cause of your woes. Just bend over like a little school girl and take what the company is shoving at any price...

You will NEVER get a fair shake with this company with your attitude. Remember, if you're not Bourne, you don't have a couple of restaurants and a car dealership on the outside--you'd best look after your workrules (or get some from a carrier who does have some). Is the used car dealer jealous of Bobbbbs' "ego" or the fact that he has a pair?

Sorry, I like Dr. Campbell better than I like you. So did Mr. Akins. The arbitrator seemed to like him, too. Good investment. If I were you, I'd ask for a refund from Akins and Freund. Another good choice from your MEC.

Well, thanks for the warning my brother!! You can have 'em all, if we have to work under your POS contract and leadership--I'll wait here while you go check for schedule changes...

Back?

I, for one, would love to see a whole lot less Polar in your future.

WhaleFR8

10th Nov 2006, 01:14

Once again, Bobbbbbb is the cause of your woes. Just bend over like a little school girl and take what the company is shoving at any price...

Sorry, I like Dr. Campbell better than I like you. So did Mr. Akins. The arbitrator seemed to like him, too. Good investment. If I were you, I'd ask for a refund from Akins and Freund. Another good choice from your MEC.

Back?

I, for one, would love to see a whole lot less Polar in your future.

I am not sure how you could have seen the arbitrators reaction to Dr. Campbell as you seemed to be asleep most of the time. But maybe I am wrong and you were just checking your eyelids for pinholes. Is it typical of you direct hire Tower captains to resort to name calling, innuendo, and personal attacks when you realize are in the wrong? Some leadership that demonstrates. I can hardly wait to see your CRM.

Thanks anyway for the brain exercise - I'd like to say it was a battle of the wits - but that is hard to have with an unarmed person. :)

We finally agree on one thing though - it would be best for everyone if we ALL had a whole lot less Polar in our future.

WhaleFR8

10th Nov 2006, 01:48

So let me get this right: Revenue is BAD if it is from Polar, but GOOD if it is from Atlas (or Starbucks, or IBM, or Microsoft, or Boeing, or any other company besides Polar).

You need to get off the CaBluto pipe dude.

Revenue is always good - but you need to take the expenses into account. In the Polar case they are huge - in the Atlas case they are not so huge. In Polars case more revenue eguals much more expenses which equals less profits. Time to go back to school.

I'll make it simple for you - it's new math I know but you might be able to get it. If johnny has two apples and his mommy says he has to give one to Suzie then Johnny is left with only one apple. Now if he gets 5 apples but his mommy says he has to give 6 to Suzi then he has to find another apple somewhere. That is what AAWH has been doing - trying to find the other apple so Polar will not be in the negative ALL the time. It is really best for everyone if Johnny (Polar) goes back down to just two apples. Then they at least only have to give half up for expenses.

Its the expenses that are killing you - say it with me slowly
R E V E N U E minus E X P E N S E S equals P R O F I T S. Any equation with revenue in it HAS to include expenses to tell the whole story.

Avius

10th Nov 2006, 03:31

Investors go by hard numbers and nothing else. Wall Street has priced the stock almost for perfection and the numbers have disappointed. The following explanation/formula might help:

Stock Price = Earnings Per Share (EPS) x Price To Earnings Multiple (P/E)

If you want to calculate the stock price you need to know (or estimate) the EPS and the P/E. That is relatively easy you can find the information on Yahoo finance or Google Finance or go to the AAWW website and check it under investor relations.

The tricky part is the P/E because it asks the question of how much you are willing to pay for a stock. The current P/E of 13 is well below the industry average of 18. Therefore there must be a reason, why AAWW stock is cheaper than similar Airlines' stocks....and there is.

Luckily there is a rule as well:

P/E = 2 x Growth Rate

In other words you should not pay more than 2 x revenue growth rate as P/E. AAWW is growing on average 3.5% therefore 2 x 3.5 = 7. This is the maximum P/E AAWW currently deserves (IMHO).

Wall Street has estimated Earnings Per Share of $3.07, which now as it turns out will be substantially less. If AAWW can have a strong last quarter, which is questionable, then they might be able to earn about $2/share.

Using the above formula with the new numbers just discovered, one can estimate the fair value of the AAWW stock:

Share Price = $2 (EPS) x 7 (P/E) = $14/share

The current stock price is $39/share. That means that the stock could potentially lose $25 until it bottoms. Luckily the book value of the stock is around $18/share, which could help to raise the fair value to some $20-$25 per share. Still a downside of $14 or 36%.

If I owned the stock and had conviction (which I don't have) I would sell half my position here and try to get the stock back at lower prices. Just my opinion. Hope this helps.

WhaleFR8

10th Nov 2006, 05:25

Avius,
I like your breakdown of the value of the stock. In fact it is one of the models I use to buy and sell stock. And if you are strictly talking about analysts and institutional investors or someone with a financial background you are correct. Don't forget, however, the emotional investors who invest or vote with their gut. They have proven time and again that media reports about union activities such as Bobbbbbs incite stock prices one way or the other. This is one reason why you see all the financail news reports on Yahoo or Google - indeed it is almost the whole reason for existance of the Wall Street Journal. Could it be possible for an MEC to short AAWWH stock and then work to make themselves money? I dunno as I do not believe the union leadership has to report as an insider.

Your breakdown of the value of the stock has to go deeper than just the book value of the assets and your P/E model. One has to know what the business model is, and what the managers and the employees are planning and thinking; ie. the five year or ten year business plan (which NO ONE has seen), and the transparancy of the future for the company.

However, in this case, Bobbbbbbbbbs plans are obvioulsy un-good for the future of the company as well as the future of his employees. He seems to want to take the company down at the expense of his union members jobs as well as our stock prices. Anyone can look at the financials and the reaction of the street and see that other people have noticed his antics and are reacting to it.

cptvac

10th Nov 2006, 06:23

I am not sure how you could have seen the arbitrators reaction to Dr. Campbell as you seemed to be asleep most of the time. But maybe I am wrong and you were just checking your eyelids for pinholes. Is it typical of you direct hire Tower captains to resort to name calling, innuendo, and personal attacks when you realize are in the wrong? Some leadership that demonstrates. I can hardly wait to see your CRM.

Thanks anyway for the brain exercise - I'd like to say it was a battle of the wits - but that is hard to have with an unarmed person. :)

We finally agree on one thing though - it would be best for everyone if we ALL had a whole lot less Polar in our future.

1)I have called no one but Capluto any names--aha, YOU ARE Capluto.
2)I have put nothing innuendo.
3)Personal attacks...kinda like the Bobbb thing you do? Ya know, implying improper use of funds, etc.
4)What's CRM?

Brain exercise? I know you are, but what am I? (Note lack of emoticon.)

Lets hope we can work "less Polar" out for ya. I think an annullment would be best for the kids...

cptvac

10th Nov 2006, 06:25

Avius,
I like your breakdown of the value of the stock. In fact it is one of the models I use to buy and sell stock. And if you are strictly talking about analysts and insitutional investors or someone with a financial background you are correct. Don't forget, however, the emotional investors who invest or vote with their gut. They have proven time and again that media reports about union activities such as Bobbbbbs incite stock prices one way or the other. This is one reason why you see all the financail news reports on Yahoo or Google - indeed it is almost the whole reason for existance of the Wall Street Journal. Could it be possible for an MEC to short AAWWH stock and then work to make themselves money? I dunno as I do not believe the union leadership has to report as an insider.

Your breakdown of the value of the stock has to go deeper than just the book value of the assets and your P/E model. One has to know what the business model is, and what the managers and the employees are planning and thinking; ie. the five year or ten year business plan (which NO ONE has seen), and the transparancy of the future for the company.

However, in this case, Bobbbbbbbbbs plans are obvioulsy un-good for the future of the company as well as the future of his employees. He seems to want to take the company down at the expense of his union members jobs as well as our stock prices. Anyone can look at the financials and the reaction of the street and see that other people have noticed his antics and are reacting to it.

Theres that Bobbbbb-thing again. Bet you think hes' the one $hitting on your lawn, too...

WhaleFR8

10th Nov 2006, 07:08

1)I have called no one but Capluto any names--aha, YOU ARE Capluto.
2)I have put nothing innuendo.
3)Personal attacks...kinda like the Bobbb thing you do? Ya know, implying improper use of funds, etc.
4)What's CRM?

Brain exercise? I know you are, but what am I? (Note lack of emoticon.)

Lets hope we can work "less Polar" out for ya. I think an annullment would be best for the kids...

....ah hahahhahahahahahahahahahaahhahaahhahaha!
You need a haircut and need to learn that business dress casual does not include blue jeans.

Get a life..... ooops as an F/O!

Cargosux

10th Nov 2006, 07:19

Whale/Merc.....Brother......

Ok...you get the therapy sticker for the month!

Let it go.................We want to help you!

The vote is out asap, maybe you will get re-elected? Christ, I will vote for you just to save the web!

Sux

cptvac

10th Nov 2006, 08:22

....ah hahahhahahahahahahahahahaahhahaahhahaha!
You need a haircut and need to learn that business dress casual does not include blue jeans.

Get a life..... ooops as an F/O!

Will you shave me and make me renounce denim, Whale?

The bobbbbbbber just keeps going under...You're easy, Whale.

Best Angle

10th Nov 2006, 11:31

Its the expenses that are killing you - say it with me slowly
R E V E N U E minus E X P E N S E S equals P R O F I T S. Any equation with revenue in it HAS to include expenses to tell the whole story.[/quote]

Whale... you have hit on the crux of our frustration. Altas wants to enjoy all the PROFITS without any of the expenses outside of ACMI. All the expenses of Scheduled Cargo are still burened on Polar while Atlas makes the PROFITS of operating as ACMI flying.

You can't have it both ways. If AAWH is serious about scheduled cargo, you have to get out of this dream world of "ACMI flying is better" and step up to share the expenses. The present direction of management does not allow for this.

The best scenario was to merge on the Polar Certificate. (Plan A) Polar has and is perfectly capable of operating other ACMI flying. This would also put the Atlas crewmembers in a better position to enjoy the DHL flying.

WhaleFR8

10th Nov 2006, 13:13

Whale... you have hit on the crux of our frustration. Altas wants to enjoy all the PROFITS without any of the expenses outside of ACMI. All the expenses of Scheduled Cargo are still burened on Polar while Atlas makes the PROFITS of operating as ACMI flying.

You can't have it both ways. If AAWH is serious about scheduled cargo, you have to get out of this dream world of "ACMI flying is better" and step up to share the expenses. The present direction of management does not allow for this.

The best scenario was to merge on the Polar Certificate. (Plan A) Polar has and is perfectly capable of operating other ACMI flying. This would also put the Atlas crewmembers in a better position to enjoy the DHL flying.

Whooo boy where to start with this one.

Let me get this straight you want Atlas to "share" the expense of the Polar scheduled flying? Hmmmm.... well to a certain extent they already do - it is called fully allocated cost accounting and AAWH uses it to balance costs by assigning expenses (costs) to certain assets (business units - or even individual aircraft) which have few costs, or little expense associated with them. This pretty much guarantees that the huge cost of running Polar is partially assigned to Atlas. Which is why Polar is even still around - because the revenue from ACMI has been enough to cover the costs at both business units. Without Atlas and the ACMI they fly, Polar would have been gone long ago.

ACMI cargo is not neccessarily "better" but it is more profitable. AAWH tried to get serious about scheduled cargo three years ago. That is where all the Polar hiring came from - and is why there are so many guys on furlough from a five airplane company. It was a failed experiment. AAWH was trying desparately to gain SOME value out of Polar. It didn't work. You can look at the DOT form 41 data and see that as Polar increased in size (by using Atlas aircraft that they never even paid the leases on) their available block hours and space (ATMS) went up but thier profits went down in almost direct inverse proportion.

If your MEC would communicate with you, you would know that they have been told twice now that ALL of us will be Atlas Pilots once the list is merged and the new CBA is negotiated or arbitrated. Polar is only going to be a shell certificate company with five airplanes and some of the route authority; ie. no pilots assigned to the certificate. We will all be operating the entire combined fleet of aircraft for either company. So really both pilot groups are already in a position to "enjoy" the DHL flying.

This is my point when I say it is time to get on board. If you want a job on the merged list at all, then you need to wake up and smell the coffee. Boobbs antics are going to get you all gone, one way or another. We all have a lot to gain, but you all have the most to lose. Make Boobb tell you the real story! Of course you will have to get him away from Robin to do so.

Heilhaavir

10th Nov 2006, 19:18

Seems some know how to do it right :D

http://www.aircargoworld.com/break_news/11092006c.htm

trashhauler

12th Nov 2006, 05:13

Fr8Dog

12th Nov 2006, 19:05

WhaleFR8

12th Nov 2006, 19:40

And that is why Atlas get investigated by the SEC!! Creative accounting. If you wonder why the crew costs at Polar are so high, look at who caused it because the Polaroids make a whole lot less in salary than the Atlas crews. When you have crews sitting around because someone else is flying your freight thereby parking aircraft, well......duh!!!!! And remember it is all Bobb's fault.:rolleyes:

Actually that is NOT why Atlas was investigated - and Fully Allocated Cost Accounting is accepted under the GAAP (generally accepted accounting practices) but probably not under the PABHAAPTKPA. (Polaroid and Boob Henderson Acceptable Accounting Practices to Keep Polar Alive).

trashhauler

12th Nov 2006, 20:34

It's still Bobb's fault, right?

Fr8Dog

12th Nov 2006, 20:42

It's still Bobb's fault, right?

Hey no spelling erors or typo's this time, I am impressed. :D

trashhauler

12th Nov 2006, 22:40

Thanks a lot. Blame it on Bobb!!:=

WhaleDriver

21st Nov 2006, 17:44

Looks like something leaked out around noon. Up over $2.50 and volume almost triple normal? Any ideas?

Fr8Dog

21st Nov 2006, 21:09

Looks like something leaked out around noon. Up over $2.50 and volume almost triple normal? Any ideas?

Yea, Polar is being bought by FedEx, It's a done deal! :}

WhaleDriver

22nd Nov 2006, 04:57

On another forum, rumour was that AAWW was gonna buy ABXA. Interesting, that they would be up on news of a purchase?