Middle East Australian plans

[Fluke]

Nothing like your aviation governing body telling your airlines whats expected.:hmm:
More flights to Australia a top priority says, DCA
By Ivan Gale, Staff Reporter ,Gulf News
Dubai: Increasing services to Australia is the most pressing goal of the Dubai Department of Civil Aviation, a top official said yesterday.
Mohammad Ahli, a director of operations and executive board member of the Dubai Department of Civil Aviation, said the UAE is waiting to hear the results of negotiations with the Australian Government over a new bilateral air transport agreement. The talks, which were expected to take place this year, have yet to be scheduled.
"We've put in a request to the Australian Government but have not yet heard back," he said. The department wants to nearly double its current allotment of 54 flights a week to 102 flights by 2011, led mainly by Emirates and its upcoming new fleet of Airbus A380s.
In addition, Etihad Airways intends to operate more services to Australia and will be a part of the upcoming delegation to Australia.
Resistance has brewed in some parts of the Australian Government and Qantas to the additional flights, but Ahli noted Qantas would not be allowed to fly more services to Dubai unless UAE carriers are given more access to Australia. In the last round of negotiations, Emirates agreed to fly to cities specified by the Australian government.
In lieu of such reciprocity agreements, Ahli said Australia might ask to code share with UAE carriers if Australian airlines aren't allowed to offer more flights to the UAE. Ahli said the Civil Aviation Department was also keenly focused on North America, and that the Airbus A380 delay would not affect Emirates' plans to begin service to Los Angeles. Emirates' fleet of A340-500 and A340-600 aircraft as well as its Boeing 777s are capable of making the trip. The daily service would begin next year, he said.
A person familiar with the Emirates plans said the carrier intends to open a route to Toronto and then to Montreal. However, the task was difficult as Canada is more protective of its sector than the US.
Not sure if this guy has all his facts straight but the intention is clear!

[Lord Snot]

Mohammad Ahli...... noted Qantas would not be allowed to fly more services to Dubai unless UAE carriers are given more access to Australia.The Greatest must be still suffering the effects of being "beaten around the ring" all those years ago. I never knew Quantas had any flights operating to the UAE....???

Anyway his ultimatum sounds prefectly reasonable to me. If Quantas aren't interested, then Emirates should be satisfied with what they've already got going.

In lieu of such reciprocity agreements, Ahli said Australia might ask to code share with UAE carriers if Australian airlines aren't allowed to offer more flights to the UAE. Is Jetstar planning to operate to the UAE now?

Can anyone explain how Emirates is able to bypass the usual prosesses to be allowed to carry trans-Tasman pax between, for example, Auckland and Sydney? I thought the rule was, only on-carriage for the foreign carriers???

Or was that the old rule?

[Pete Conrad]

This is exactly why Jetstar international is busting it's nut to take over the universe. Dixon thinks he can get market share back from Emirates by expanding Jetstar Int...it's the same line in the sand he drew with respect to Virgin and the set up of Jetstar domestic.

Be interesting to see how much Dixon actually dilutes the Qantas brand in his quest to try and woo passengers from EK,SQ etc by getting them to fly here there and everywhere on Jetstar. But if you ask any deluded Jetstar employee, they will tell you they will win the war against Emirates....yeah right!

The only way Dixon will succeed is to offer full service, higher yeilding Qantas flights with a Jetstar cost base......maybe in 5 years time we will see that?

[CAYNINE]

When Qantas stops pontificating about Emirates operating more flights to Oz and gets off its fat government protected backside and actually decides to fly to the "open skies" of the middle east, we will see the true potential of the Australasian market.

Mean time more hot air from Dixon and less services from carriers that have the "can do, will do" attitude that Qantas has and still lacks.

Oz government knows that to have more services from sucessful ME carriers is good for the development of the country.... just got to get that Qantas burr out thier undies.

[murgatroid]

There is currently the equivalent of 200 empty 747's flying into Australia each week. Australia has no problem with its "development".

And what have UAE offered in return for greater access to Australian skies? Two destinations beyond Dubai that you have to look up an Atlas to know where they are!

[ditzyboy]

The only way Dixon will succeed is to offer full service, higher yeilding Qantas flights with a Jetstar cost base......maybe in 5 years time we will see that?

It seems that is exactly what he is trying to do. Five years seems like an acceptable timeframe, too.

[apache]

Can anyone explain how Emirates is able to bypass the usual prosesses ...


he who has the oil makes the rules!

[Pete Conrad]

Whats even more interesting is that Dixon's line in the sand against Virgin hasn't entirely been a success. Virgin don't even hedge their fuel and yet they posted a good result this year against supposed stiff competition from Jetstar.

Just goes to show, what Dixon, the gnome Joyce and all the Qantas/Jetstar spin doctors want to crap on about re Jetstar, one thing remains, for the investment made in Jetstar, to only contribute $11 million to the group in profit speaks volumes.

[CAYNINE]

Murga,

Funny all EK flights are full both ways most days. Perth the only one a little lighter.

Is all this open capacity you refer to coming from FE Asia by any chance?

You've been listening to Dixon's garbage for too long son, QF can fly through DXB as many times as they want....on ports aren't EK's resposibility....that'd be the QF commercial department sitting on thier hands again..

[Taildragger67]

Snot,

1. QANTAS, mate. QANTAS. As the saying goes, there's no 'U' in QANTAS...

2. Fifth-freedom rights granted by the IASC.

Murgatroid,

Why the Rat doesn't send a 744 direct Dubai to connect with a BA 744 to H'row and soon-to-be Oneworld member Royal Jordanian up to Amman is something which I haven't understood for some time. :ugh:

Or in the alternative, a Jetstar :eek: A330 via Male (both ways) to meet up with a BA 777 in DXB.

One flight - several markets opened up and a new route to London.

Ah, but that would be a logical thing to do, Grasshopper...

[7378FE]

Why the Rat doesn't send a 744 direct Dubai to connect with a BA 744 to H'row and soon-to-be Oneworld member Royal Jordanian up to Amman is something which I haven't understood for some time.

'cause the 744 can't do MEL/SYD to DXB on one tank of fuel without payload restrictions:hmm:

Anyway EK are only asking for an increase in services between UAE & Australia, where the punters wish to go to after they get to DXB is of no concern to QF or the Australian government:rolleyes:

[CAYNINE]

........but if you took the "A" out and left the "u" in it would be more reflective of the organisation don't you think?

[petitfromage]

Equivalent of 200 empty 744s?
Interesting 'factoid'...care to back it up?

Cathay are 'chocka' and starting a 4th daily to SYD and 2nd daily to BNE.

[Taildragger67]

Cathay are 'chocka' and starting a 4th daily to SYD and 2nd daily to BNE.

Which they'd put jumbos back on the Sydney run and get rid of those sodding Scarebuses, then...

[murgatroid]

Melbourne Airport 2005/2006

Pax movements: 4,390,000
International Aircraft Movements: 25,250

Thus pax load per movement = 173

Average aircraft capacity: assume 250 seats

Thus load factor = 69%

Movements per week = 485

250 seats x 485 movements = 121,250

121,250 x 31% = 37,587 empty seats per week

37,587 / 400 = 93 empty 747 movements

Add in the rest of the country and 200 empty 747 arrivals is probably a reasonable estimate.

Even if we assumed a 95% load factor, that's still 15 empty 747's at Melbourne alone.

Is that a better "factoid" than "chocka"?

[404 Titan]

murgatroid

WRONG. Your biggest mistake is to assume that empty seats means spare or unused capacity. It doesn’t, particularly on sectors that are 8+ hours in length where most carriers to and from Australia use spare belly capacity to carry substantial amounts of freight. I regularly operate aircraft into and out of Australia that have 100+ seats spare but we are take-off weight limited. We aren’t the only carrier like this either. Mates at QF and EK say they are the same.

Taildragger67

There are two reasons why we are stuck with the airbus into Australia. They are:
1. based crews are all Airbus and
2. yield management.

[murgatroid]

Fair enough point 404, but freight is mostly subload, sell as many seats as possible and top up with freight. If the demand for freight capacity is tight, then you begin to see more dedicated freighters. Not many airlines would put on an extra passenger service based on freight would they? You are right though, it is a variable in the equation though not the complete explanation.

Regardless, I would still say the central argument is that UAE, Singapore etc think Australia should just open the flood gates and this is being pushed under the guise of insufficient capacity.

No doubt complete free rights would benefit EK, SQ, CX etc. as they are from hub ports and can fly onto to many other places from their base. But QF cannot and Australia is basically an end point. What is the use of 50 QF flights a week to DXB if you have no real onrights beyond?

No wonder QF lobby like buggery to protect access. To not would be suicide.

So why should the gov't "protect" QF. Well, like it or loathe it, QF is an Australian icon and employs more Australians in Australia than EK, SQ, CX etc combined. The world playing field is not even. It costs more to keep jobs in Australia. I don't think anyone would like to see aircraft cleaners in Australia being paid the same as UAE. Nor do we want to see all the jobs sent offshore.

The hard bit is just how much. Keep QF on its toes, allow enough access to support tourism etc, but still limit capacity so that "reasonable" profits can be made and sustained.

[404 Titan]

murgatroid

Whether it is self loading freight or consigned freight, it is all payload. All markets experience a number of high and low seasons regarding passenger traffic and freight. In the ideal world it would be the high season all year round and one would maximise both. The reality is we don’t so we try and make do with what we have. To be able to load up a pax aircraft with a light pax load with freight is far more economical than sending a dedicated freighter only 65% full. It is all a matter of yield management which most airlines in this region of the world are very good at, otherwise they would be making a huge loss.

By the way you won’t get an argument from me when it comes to protection where protection is due. Just look at my past posts regarding the topic of allowing SQ access to the Aus/US route to see where I stand.

[wayne_krr]

Well argued and quite correct Murgatroid. EK, SQ and to a lesser extent CX are all keen to create a 'home market' out of Australia as they don't really have one of their own. EK and SQ essentially have no travelling public so Australia presents a great market of relatively wealthy, frequent travellers at one end of the hub.
QF won't last long if EK and SQ are given unfettered access to Oz markets. The cost base of much of their labour is so low QF could never compete. For example the catering staff recently had a go slow in Dubai. A very brave thing for them to do becaues it will certainly have meant that many will have lost their jobs. They were asking for a pay raise from their present rate of Dh 500/month. That's A$182 per month. They were given the generous amount of Dh4/month and took exception.
Safety is an issue as well. In Dubai the regulator allows much more latitude in their interpretation of the FTLs than the pilot group/regulator in Australia.
QF needs to improve in many areas to compete but the nature of the governments of Dubai and Singapore and their attitude to the workers in their companies mean the the odds are stacked firmly in their favour.

[404 Titan]

wayne_krr

I wouldn’t say CX is trying to make a home base out of Australia, just market share. If the two governments allow an increase in services to or from both countries, even fifth freedom rights, then I’m sure CX will take advantage of it just like QF has out of HK to LHR from the last agreement. Prior to CX taking over KA, CX had an effective home base market that encompassed about 70 million people. Hong Kong’s population alone is about 7 million with a huge population just over the border in the Pearl River Delta region. Since the Cathay take over of Dragon Air, and 20% ownership of Air China that home base market has swelled to about 1.5 Billion People. A lot more than Australia’s 20 million.

[wayne_krr]

I agree, that's why I said 'to a lesser extent CX'.

[Wizofoz]

EK and SQ essentially have no travelling public

Not entirely true. Whilst both Singapore and the UAE have smallish populations, they have a high percentage of expats (80% in the case of Dubai!!) virtually all of whom travel home regularly.

EK have big markets to places like India and Pakistan where much of the UAE population is from.

[Taildragger67]

EK have big markets to places like India and Pakistan where much of the UAE population is from.

Not just UAE.

My understanding some years ago (as told to me by a senior EK corporate sales person in London) was that EK was positioning itself as the leading airline for travel between western Europe and the subcontinent, based on subcontinentals in the West travelling back for a VFR trip. Air India and BA really only operated London to Delhi/Mumbai/Calcutta/Karachi, so EK stepped in and offered easy connections from UK midland cities (with large subcontinental-origin populations), plus the main ports in most western European countries with any decent-sized such population, to loads of places all over India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, etc.

Also all the far-eastern expat workers in the Gulf coming in and going home for their yearly trip.

All they needed was a large fleet of flexibly-sized aircraft (ie. not so big as to be hard to fill but won't cost a motza to support during a short route downturn and which can carry a reasonable freight load) with nearby support (hence A330s, which can be supported out of Toulouse very easily). Boeings for the longer, more four/five-times-a-week routes (hence 777). Plus a good terminal to be able to handle all the connections (hence the Rashid building).

Worked a treat, by the looks. Step back and watch it grow...

[Vorsicht]

I think you are on the money but slightly overcomplicating it.

Ek's core business is exporting Indians, Pakistani's and Bangladeshi's to the rest of the world. Then to a lesser extent arabs to Manila and Bangkok.

Everything else is just profit.

[Chilli Muscle]

Correct !
And if you think they want to go home - think again .:}

[ernestkgann]

The population of the UAE is around two million give or take. 80% of that isn't all that much and most of the workers/labourers here are given the very generous amount of 2-4 weeks leave every two years. I don't think I'd fill 45 A380s with that.

[CAYNINE]

Think again.....

[ernestkgann]

I guess we'll have to wait till the A380s arrive K9 and see if you're right. Probably 2008 I guess.