Peak Oil

[Jarule]

No I am not referring to the red radial line to the right (hopefully) of the oil temp guage needle, or even the top mark on the dip stick.

I am referring to the term "Peak Oil" production. This is the term the scaremongering TV current affairs programs are using today. Is it true or are they trying to put the fear of god in us? I feel that as one of the worlds greatest consumers of the "black gold" it's probably something the aviation industry should consider.

Peak Oil means that we (the human race) are consuming more oil than mother Earth can disgorge at any one time. I belive that the oil companies are correct when they inform us that there is enough oil for another 100 years, but at what rate of consumption and what quality?

Fuel prices in the last 4 years have increased by 75%. Has it peaked or will it rise even more? What do you think?
We are reaching the end of high quality oil reserves and the oil that will be removed from Earth in future will be of poorer quality and require more refining. This will lead to ever higher fuel prices. Unlike our eathbound counterparts we cannot use alternative fuels i.e. Gas, Hydrogen or Ethonol due to the environment into which we are taking the fuel. We are stuck With Avgas or Jet (kerosene)fuels.

The next time you complete the last sector of your RPT run and 2 passengers walk off your aircraft that has seats for 36 will you feel guilty that you burned so much fuel to get them there?
Or you just burnt 150 litres of avgas so that 2 peaple can look at Uluru from the air, and they didn't even take a photo because they bought the post card.
Of course you won't. you had to position the aircraft for the mornings flight, which will be full anway, or they wanted to see it you just flew the plane.
Are you doing it because it's what the customer wants, or so that the company can make money and the boss told you to, or are we telling the customer what they want so that we can make money out of them by wasting fuel.
Why should you worry? guilt is for the suckers that have a conscience!

Put a price tag of $5 or even $10 a litre on the fuel and think again.

Won't happen? Naa of course not, not in my lifetime!

The bean counters tell us the only way we can survive is to grow. Buy more planes, fly more passengers, burn more fuel.
How far can we go?
How much can we consume?
How long can we continue at this unsustainable level?
These are the questions.

Am I a greenie? Definitely not.:cool:
Do I care? A little bit, but hey, what can I do?:ugh:

Just providing food for thought.
That's what PPRUNE is about anyway isn't it?:ok:

[tinpis]

Noted that petrol sales have dropped considerably in the last quarter.

Now for the bowser price wars.:E

Dont throw out yer old 6 cylinder just yet or line up for an LPG conversion you are certainly setting yourself up for a screwing there IMHO.http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,20312932-1702,00.html

[troppo]

already done to death...by "the silly old git" above me...
http://www.pprune.org/forums/showthread.php?t=234127&highlight=peak+oil

[Jarule]

:O OOps.... I missed that thread, but thanks for re-directing me.

I did a search before posting but it wasn't returned.

I still think my point about the volume of fuel we waste in the Aviation industry with very poor justification still stands.


F**K the cost, fly your ass off.
Jarule

[Lord Snot]

"Peak Oil" has already been covered more than a few times around here but since you're asking, here is my view.

Aviation is obviously a major part of the transportation infrastructure. Services, whether half empty on some days or not, have to be there. You can't just say we have to walk more or ride a covered wagon from Sydney to Perth just because on some days, no one wants to travel.....

But more than that, it's getting close to time to switch to something else. To accelerate the process:


Keep buying petrol for your car until you can't personally afford it anymore.
Keep flying that piston or jet until the punters stop paying.
BURN as much oil as you can.


You think YOU feel guilty about consumption? Think of over TWO BILLION Chinese and Indians who all want the same standard of living as you have, all burning petrol and diesel like there's no tomorrow at ever-increasing rates as they emerge slowly into the 20th century over there.

Never feel guilty because the faster you burn it, the faster the pain will be over and they can get on with releasing alternative energy technology and the you-know-whos in this world will be back to living in the sand and molesting their goats.

Well okay some of them may have saved some cash but in general, their influence will have been negated for the most part.

Never feel guilty about burning oil. It's ya duty!!!

[Shitsu_Tonka]

Yes it has been done to death - I have been following it very closely for a bit over two years.

After reading as much as I can, and thinking of all the alternative outcomes, holding strong views, and then reversing them, in the end I have come to agree with Lord Snot above.

Burn it up and get rid of it. My main reason for that argument is that when we got close to $80 a month or so ago, the oil industry saw action happening - alternative energies suddenly got a lot of media attention - LPG, CNG, LNG and Hdrogen are now more viable. Refined oil demand in Australia dropped 5% - 5%! That is huge - and I really beleive it scared the refiners a bit. I noticed when Caltex released their annual report last week, the CEO kept emphasising that the profit represented only 1.8c / per retail litre. So that would suggest 5% is a big deal. In effect - they don't want to price themselves out of the market, and that was a big part of the oil spike. Nothing to do with the supply equation - it was exploitation of world events (which often had nothing to with oil!) to see how far they could push the market. I think they found out where the resistance level is.

This of course is just price escalation which has nothing to do with supply. Refiners go out of business when supply dries up.

But the supply data is the big unknown. I think everyone is telling fibs. But how do you prove it either way?

If Exxon, Texaco, Caltex etc. think that they are about to become extinct, they are sure spending a lot of $BN on new rigs.

[tinpis]

Riddle me this....fuel is shipped into the port of Darwhine from Singapore then transported by road to Sydney.
It is retailed in Sydney for 130 cents and in Darwhine for 145c :hmm:

Who is getting screwed?

[tinpis]

Riddle me this....fuel is shipped into the port of Darwhine from Singapore then transported by road to Sydney.
It is retailed in Sydney for 130 cents and in Darwhine for 145c :hmm:
Who is getting screwed?

Who is the screwor and who is the screwee?

[Jarule]

What sort of car do you drive Jarule? How many L/100km do you get?

Hi Frozo, I can safely say I am doing my bit.
I drive a stinking great diesel 4X4 that burns 17ltrs per 100klms. But why should I worry cos when the diesel is gone, I buy canola oil from Woolies, then when I've fried my chips in it I can refine it in my garage and stick it in my fuel tank with no conversion to my car whatsoever. No problemo.

As for the twin turbine I fly. If it it will burn, doesn't freeze in the fuel tanks at -40c and you can pump it through the fuel system, then the engine will run on it. Bonus! I won't even loose my job.

You could say I am a model world citizen and I should be proud of my contribution to global economy.:E


Thanks also Tonka for your comments.
If my multi billion dollar enterprise was about to implode because my resource was going to run out. I'd be burying my own grandmother hoping that she would fossilise and turn into crude oil so that I could sell it to the Americans.
Hey, I think I have a point there, watch out grandma!:eek:

I guess the only other issue is pollution. We can only hope that the atmosphere can hold out while we burn all the fossil fuel. If it does then we are laughing, if not, then we could be in dire poop.

To quote Lord Snot
"Aviation is obviously a major part of the transportation infrastructure. Services, whether half empty on some days or not, have to be there. You can't just say we have to walk more or ride a covered wagon from Sydney to Perth just because on some days, no one wants to travel....."
"Have to be there" Where are you right now? Where am I ? Does It really matter these days if you are there or not? And why the hell are we all in such a big hurry?
If your job doesn't involve hands on physical labour then you don't have to be there. Any type of office work can be done from home on the internet. That means all the tower blocks of offices in the city can come down and they can all work from home, mark my words, the time will come. The pen pushers don't really need to commute. That means very little buisness aviation is absolutely necessary. Lets face it, you don't have to look a polli in the eye to tell if they are lying or not, you know they are! So why do they travel so much?
Because they can, and we provide the means.(this is just an example and not an attack on the respectable profession of polotics:yuk: )

Our only hope is that we are allowed to use alternative fuels in aviation before the world super powers start fighting about the "Black Gold". Hell, as if there isn't enough to fight about with money and religion.:}

Guilty? Naa, it's all about ME. I just love to fly, and if I can continue doing it till have to depart this mortal coil then I will be more than happy. I guess if I can't fly for a job I will find some way of doing it just for fun.

[Jarule]

Riddle me this....fuel is shipped into the port of Darwhine from Singapore then transported by road to Sydney.
It is retailed in Sydney for 130 cents and in Darwhine for 145c :hmm:
Who is getting screwed?

Who is the screwor and who is the screwee?

You've got me on that one Tinpis.
All I can say is that I am in the wrong business. If the ACCC can't uncover the scam the fuel companies have going there's no hope for the rest of us. But then can we trust the ACCC? Who pays the ACCC? Who benifits from fuel Taxation?

I could be on to a big conspiracy theory here!:oh:

[Ultralights]

i remember over the easter break, in Sydney, fuel peaked at $1.40 a ltr, as i drove west to narromine, fuel at Dubbo, on the same, day, was $1.21 a ltr.

how do you explain that! its not just Darwhine getting ripped off..