Airlines and their "pilot shortage"

[helldog]

Can anyone out there actually see this supposed "pilot shortage"?

You keep hearing all kinds of stories about airlines being short of crew and cancelling flights, but then things just dont add up. For example a mate of mine has a Ryan interview today but he is told that his start will be in April at best! How short can they really be?

Also, I do see the odd job that just requires a bare rating, but they say "may be considered" if you dont have time on type. But most still want 500 hours on type. This says to me that there must be a steady flow of guys with this experience out there.

So my question is. Is there really a pilot shortage? Does anyone out there know of actual examples where airlines are scratching their heads wondering where they will find crew, cancelling flights, delaying aircraft deliveries due to having no crew?

[PAXboy]

This is a guess from a non-pilot but based on being in commerce (many areas) for 28 years and a pax for 40 years ... a company will aways demand what is their ideal but settle for less. They will never advertise that they settle for less. If they cannot get the pilots then they will decide to either sub-out or not run the service at all.

With the new style airline, there are many more variables than before and one of the rules is NOT to set up a timetable and then keep it in tight lock step every day of the year! They also like to 'announce' new routes far in advance of the routes starting. (more speculation) Once they see how the bookings are running - they can decide how much to the proposed schedule they are actually going to operate??

There are reports elsewhere in PPRUNE of carriers merging flights and subbing out almost every day. If the projections for their future timetables are to be believed - then there will be a shortage. But then, in due course, there will be an oversupply as the cycle continues.

[BusBoy]

Helldog
certainly in the Airline that I work for the problem is just not recruiting but the training of these recruits. The training backlog of Line Checks, LPC and OPCs is huge before you start to increase the pilot workforce which compounds the problem with Line Training.
Also the trainers are being poached by other airlines who have the same problem but are able to offer something "better" financially or in terms of lifestyle. :ugh:

[MrMutra]

Helldog,

I agree, many crews I have met all complain about being overworked due to lack of crews but I think it is just the companies wishing to maximise the staff they already have without taking on more people. Strange as more aircraft arrive and yet recruitment stagnates. There really is very little fresh recruitment, just many people moving between companies which has been going on for ages now. There has been a stream of cadets walking into jobs from various schools, but for others it really is still a struggle.

All positions Ive applied for are all type rated hours on type a must. When speaking with airlines and recruiment agencies they never seem short of suitable qualified people, in fact been told they are " overwhelmed".

Type rated hours on type, seems to indicate that airlines do not wish to invest in people any longer. Multi-engine piston is no good as this will not unfreeze the atpl and so therfore it is becoming a difficult problem to solve, unless you have deep pockets and self type rate and then complete your own line training etc....

MrM
:)

[kotakota]

There are indeed a lot of jobs out there and quite a few airlines I know will be very happy indeed to meet the end of the season ( in UK ) on Oct 31st. The unrelenting pressure on their crew requirements will slacken off , for a while , and they may be able to catch up on much needed training etc . Problem is , the Trainers are all pushing 900 hours , they need leave etc.
Many airlines do take on low-hour pilots on to their jet fleets , but the bigger problem is the large experience gap emerging. There are not too many FOs with 2000 jet hours. Those that do are highly prized indeed and may well benefit from 'accelerated command ' offers when considering a move.
Many airlines do not want 3500 hour skippers flying with 350 hour FOs.The pity of it is that the UK market is completely dominated by jets. (Anybody ever done a survey of jet/turboprop ratios in various countries/continents ? )There is very little opportunity to accumulate Turbo-prop hours these days before tackling a jet.The airlines have access to many low-hour (often jet-rated ) pilots but have to choose carefully. Grades are still important !
Expansion has its problems

[helldog]

I see what you are all saying here. How do you explain this though kotakota. Two guys I know went for 737 jobs both thave around 2000 hours on multi crew ops turboprops with some command. Both failed. Now maybe they just stuffed up I am not trying to second guess what happend in their evaluations. But they would seem to be ideal candidates to avoid the sittuation you are talking about where you have 3500 hour guys flying with 300 hour guys. I am sure they still have a steady flow of self funded low time cadets coming in.

[PAXboy]

MrMutraType rated hours on type, seems to indicate that airlines do not wish to invest in people any longer.Non-pilot speaking If that is the case, it seems not unreasonable to conclude that the airlines are now following the same course of action that other commercial companies have followed since the start of the 1990s. Only large companies will invest in people, as they can sustain the losses when they move. Smaller companies no longer give people the kind of training courses that they used to.

My guess Note that I say my GUESS is that this changte by the airlines is due to the loss of seniority schemes. Since they no longer have hold on flight crew by their seniority number and are recruiting direct, why invest in them? If they have the hours you hire, if they don't - you don't.

[helldog]

I dont think so paxboy. I mean how much is a type rating 20 000 euro? Some of these low cost carriers are making massive proffits. You tell me the cant pay for say 100 type ratings per year. Lets say 10% of the guys dont stay long enough for them to make the money back on their investment they would still not loose much compared to their profit. I think they can afford to pay. The thing is can they continue to find guys with the money to self fund? I personally think they have things the wrong way around. Ryan are now offering bonded training if you have jet time. Surely a jet experienced pilot is more of a risk for doing a runner than a 1500 hour pilot who just wants some jet experience. Then of course there is the question which often comes up. Do they hire a guy just because he can pay for his own rating even though he lacks experience? Do they not hire someone that they would otherwise be happy to have who has good experience because he cant pay?

[Buster the Bear]

A certain orange airline has been cancelling large numbers of flights for a few months now. Apparently it takes far longer to recruit and train, than the period of notice required to leave? Judging by the numbers departing, the folk doing the training are going to be rather busy for some time to come!

Add into all of this, the decision to operate a mix Boeing/Airbus fleet and the re-training as the new buses arrive!

[helldog]

Hmmmmmmm maybe in future airlines will advertise like this....Come join the team, once you pass the screening you will be required to obtain at type rating at your own expense. On completion we will order a new aircraft for you to fly.

[PAXboy]

helldogI think they can afford to pay.Yes - I'm sure that they can!! But they are not paying!! As I said, this is how I have seen general commerce companies behave (retail, transport, communications, oil -the lot) for 15 years.

[helldog]

Yeah fair call, they most definatly are NOT paying. But I cant say other industries are the same. Oil or mining for instance. I know a few guys in mining and in oil. Man the benefits they get, dude all training, all meals, all travel, all relocation costs, all housing plus subsidised education, no joke a mate of mine works for a mining company that pays half your fees if you want to do a uni distance learning course while you work for them! I cant see and airline paying for half an a320 type rating while you are flying a 737 for them. I know we get some great benefits but most only start seeing these benefits when the join BA,CAthay, Qantas.

[PAXboy]

Well that is quite possible helldog - what are the staff shortages like? If a particular skill is in short supply, then benefits normally go up. Since that does not appear to be happing, then one is led towards the view that the airlines are deliberately trying to 'hold a line' and not allow this to become a SOP.

[VATCO]

Its becoming quite olbvoius that airlines are recruiting more and more people from abroad to fill the gaps.
Are the gaps becoming wider?:=

[Torycanyon]

PAX Boy, may be worth having a look at the thread running on Terms and Endearment. "Will work for Free" It really is getting desparate now.
If this is the way the industry is going then God help us all.:{

[CaptainProp]

In the UK there IS a shortage at the moment. Problem is, as have been mentioned already, that we cannot train them. Basicly, we need trainers to train the new FO´s/upgrades, but we dont have enough trainers to train the new trainers :} AND keep up the "daily" ops ie OPC/LPC, line-checks etc etc.

The T&Cs have gone up over the last 12-18 months and WILL continue to go go up in over the next 12-18 months.
In the big orange world we have seen bonus being re-introduced for FOs, 8% pay rise(over 2 years), another 2% added to the pension(Still c***p:{ ), and from 1st of nov we go from 5254 to 5354 with further negotiations being planned for december. Now, is this because they decided that "Our guys work so hard, lets give them some more days off and more pay to show that we appreciate their job"??? No, this is because of the good old supply and demand!

We are now offering TRI/TREs to pick ANY base (in the network) to attract enough people and there are rumours (RUMOURS!!) of "golden hand shakes" as well...Supply and demand!

There have also been rumours that we are changing the reqruitment process and that we will recieve more info on this "in the near future"...Lets wait and see what that is.

[Torycanyon]

"The T&Cs have gone up over the last 12-18 months and WILL continue to go up in over the next 12-18 months."

Everywhere except my company FlyBe, where we are still fighting to get up to the year 2000 levels.:ugh:

[CaptainProp]

Yes, but what kind of % of the pilot force is in BALPA??

[Torycanyon]

Probably not as many as we would like. As they all get their hours, whether it be the first 500 airline experience, Jet hours or Command hours, they Bugga off elsewhere as soon as they can. No such thing as loyalty in this company.:ugh:

The thing is, our CC are weak and the Company know it, those that have voted with their feet know it and I know it. It looks like I may be following suit shortly and bolstering the membership of a proper airline.;)

I am certain that I won't be the last either; in fact it looks like the Flood Gates are only just starting to open. If the company thought the last couple of years attrition rates were bad with only a few of the Majors recruiting, then they are in for a very nasty shock.:E Monarch took a sizable chunk of our work force all in one go last time around and the time before that. It would not surprise me if they did exactly the same again. We have loads of disillusioned Q400 F/O's who know their chances of a 146 or 195 slot are very slim.

[CaptainProp]

Well, you have given the answer to your problem yourself... No matter what you think about BALPA, the cost of being a member, the p*** results you have seen so far, REMEMBER THIS - BALPA is the ONLY way you can change ANYTHING!!! So get your act together and join, then every time you go to work ask your colleague if he/she is a member...If they are not then try to get a discussion going about it and try to convince him/her that this really is the way to go to change anything. Remember, one more member will tell another who will tell another etc etc....

Good luck!
/CP

[Torycanyon]

I have been beating my head against a brick wall for many years regarding getting guys to join up. Most are quite happy to moan about their lot, then reap the rewards that others have fought for. Those that are still MEGA
P1ssed Off will vote with their feet and probably cancel their subsciptions too.:ugh: :ugh: :ugh:

[PAXboy]

TorycanyonPAX Boy, may be worth having a look at the thread running on Terms and Endearment. "Will work for Free" It really is getting desparate now. If this is the way the industry is going then ...

Thanks for the pointer. I have read the first one and a half pages of the thread and got the news. It would seem that, Yes, this is the way the industry is going! There are many places in general commerce that take people on for free, usually for a limited period of time to avoid upsetting the paid workers. However, it is very interesting to see skilled workers now giving it away for free.

There is a thread running in the African Forum (http://www.pprune.org/forums/showthread.php?t=240668) on the same problem. People going down there and the company paying their TR and then working it off by working for free. However, I don't think that is in scheduled work.

The questions are (of course) How long can do this for and who is subsidising them? My guess is that they will do it for a year or so to build hours and that it is their parents? Some may have other jobs or have inherited some money, so that they can afford to not earn for two years. Many possibilities.

Doubtless the airlines will have as much of this as they can get away with. However, the first time there is a reportable incident that makes it to the newspapers with "The First Officer was qualified but not being paid ..." should put the fox amongst the chickens. :hmm:

[Lucifer]

How long can do this for and who is subsidising them? My guess is that they will do it for a year or so to build hours and that it is their parents?
This can go on forever as people are delusional about their abilities and chances. It is not rich kids, but sadly people without the means to sustain themselves, who default on bank loans instead.

then every time you go to work ask your colleague if he/she is a member...If they are not then try to get a discussion going about it and try to convince him/her that this really is the way to go to change anything.
Harrassment to join the union is illegal, so respectively, please do not bring up those conversations at work. While I understand your sentiment, the power is in the fact that too many people want to join the "glamour" of flying. Unions cannot stop the fact that too many people are prepared to undercut what you want to work for. I would have sympathy with an employee being paid below market rate, but that is quite frankly not the case - the market is going rapidly downwards as too many people join the profession.


The pilot shortage is in experienced captains and trainers. If there were sufficient numbers of these, easyJet for example would have trained their full requirement of inexperienced staff who are sitting in the CTC pool for TR courses. There is no shortage and has never been a shortage of low hours pilots.

[helldog]

I tend to agree with you there Lucifer, thats why I asked the original question. But what does the fact that there is a lack of training captains mean? Are airlines just expanding to fast? Or are guys not sticking their careers out? I know more than a few pilots that have realised that they can use their savings to set up a business and make much more money than in flying. Consequently they leave the profession and put their energy into something far more lucrative.

[CaptainProp]

This can go on forever as people are delusional about their abilities and chances. It is not rich kids, but sadly people without the means to sustain themselves, who default on bank loans instead.
Harrassment to join the union is illegal, so respectively, sod off mate. While I understand your sentiment, the power is in the fact that too many people want to join the "glamour" of flying. Unions cannot stop the fact that too many people are prepared to undercut what you want to work for. I would have sympathy with an employee being paid below market rate, but that is quite frankly not the case - the market is going rapidly downwards as too many people join the profession.
The pilot shortage is in experienced captains and trainers. If there were sufficient numbers of these, easyJet for example would have trained their full requirement of inexperienced staff who are sitting in the CTC pool for TR courses. There is no shortage and has never been a shortage of low hours pilots.

Who the f**k has been talking about harrassment??!! Its called having a meaningfull discussion with a colleague while you are at work, however, that requires social skills...:mad: