PDA

View Full Version : Hurricane Chris?? Texas-bound??


colmac747
2nd Aug 2006, 14:52
Loose Rivets, Aaaaaaaaaaaaargh and Con-Pilot (those are the one's i can think off) watch out! Is it comin' your way?:ooh: :ouch: :hmm:


Very strong looking Tropical Storm already:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc06/ATL/03L.CHRIS/vis/geo/1km_zoom/20060802.1415.goes12.x.vis1km_high.03LCHRIS.55kts-1001mb-190N-631W.100pc.jpg
The HPC has it a mid-Texas coast hit

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day5nav_precolor.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day7nav_precolor.html


http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at200603_5day.gif

con-pilot
2nd Aug 2006, 15:05
We're pretty safe up here in Oklahoma. For us to be affected the storm must make landfall south of Huston. If it does we could certainly use the rain.

VitaminGee
2nd Aug 2006, 15:13
Looks like the Turks and Caicos Islands, where I once lived for two years, is due for a few $K of improvements at approximately 11AM on Friday. :E
Hope the peeps are okay 'though :ok:

(seems an unusual predicted track - usually they curve away towards the north)

VG

colmac747
2nd Aug 2006, 15:20
:ouch: AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

:( :uhoh:

Loose rivets
2nd Aug 2006, 17:56
Thanks for the warning, one is looking out of the window at the north west.

I know, I know...it's the wrong direction, but I'm fed up with bad news and it's the equivalent of putting one's telescope to one's blind eye.

50 miles north of here there is a checkpoint. [Immigration and drugs.] They have no intention of easing the checks in the event of an evacuation. So hours in ques at no feet above sea level. Mmmm....one intends to stay put.

Now, where did I put me Wellies?

PPRuNe Pop
2nd Aug 2006, 18:12
Doesn't too good for the Keys again does it. I'd hate to be subjected to the annual lottery of getting one of these on my doorstep!

Good luck to all.

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaargh!
2nd Aug 2006, 18:13
That's not a hurricane...you just got that picture from a gay porn mag didn't you?


:p

Romeo Delta
2nd Aug 2006, 18:32
AA SLF is also a Texas man. So watch out to him as well.

Me, I'm a Floridian, so I gotta duck me head about Monday. I figger it's prolly just gonna brush us, though, so nothing major. A little wind, a little rain, a little drink to ease the pain, and another for the strain... After that I can't complain...

Saintsman
2nd Aug 2006, 18:37
Hurricane 'Chris'?

Doesn't sound particularly frightening to me.


Now if it was something like Hurricane Clint.......

planeenglish
2nd Aug 2006, 19:37
My entire family is in Dallas any chance of it hitting there guys?:(

PE

con-pilot
2nd Aug 2006, 19:42
Not to worry PE, if it does hit Dallas it will be very weak. Biggest problems would be flash flooding and a possible stray tornado. Dallas is too far inland for a hurricane to retain the high winds.

PS, besides, they need the rain anyway, like us.

planeenglish
2nd Aug 2006, 19:45
Flooding and winds are my main worry. I've got everyone spread about between East and West (from Terrell to Plano).

My grandmother, who is alone now, is in Downtown Dallas. Tornados happen but they are rare in her area.

Thanks for the spirit lifter...

PE

colmac747
2nd Aug 2006, 20:11
That's not a hurricane...you just got that picture from a gay porn mag didn't you?


:p

Which one?

:p

colmac747
2nd Aug 2006, 20:13
Flooding and winds are my main worry. I've got everyone spread about between East and West (from Terrell to Plano).
My grandmother, who is alone now, is in Downtown Dallas. Tornados happen but they are rare in her area.
Thanks for the spirit lifter...
PE


PE, i'm no expert on this, just noticed it posted on this site (http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/postlist.php?Cat=0&Board=tb2006);)

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaargh!
2nd Aug 2006, 21:14
PM me her details if you want and I'll check up on her. I was a cub scout once and the old habits die hard


/'':8




but Con's right, we're aways inland and we need the water

WhatsaLizad?
2nd Aug 2006, 21:18
Me, I'm a Floridian, so I gotta duck me head about Monday. I figger it's prolly just gonna brush us, though, so nothing major. A little wind, a little rain, a little drink to ease the pain, and another for the strain... After that I can't complain...


FL here too RD. Filled up my gas cans today, got enough to run our 5K watt genset for about 4 days if the worst case scenario of a north jog with 80Kts sustained into the KPBI area. I will be flying in the Carib area for two days, so it will be a good excuse to replenish my rum provisions at duty free.

I could skip the 4th direct hit in 2 years though.

There is some concern if it gets in the Gulf of Mexico. While the water east of Florida is cooler than last year at this time. The is a very warm "Loop" eddy in the Gulf of the type that Katrina exploded on last year. Just the kind of warm, deep water that these things feed on.:eek:

Cheers

planeenglish
3rd Aug 2006, 06:00
PM me her details if you want and I'll check up on her. I was a cub scout once and the old habits die hard


/'':8




but Con's right, we're always inland and we need the water
Thanks, Granny is deaf (she's 91) and my mom is heading back to Dallas early from a business trip to stay with her. Nobody could call her so ...interestingly, next week a new telephone system is being put into their house that texts all phone calls and my grandmother can read what the caller is saying and then she responds by voice! Too bad it isn't working now. :sad:

Thanks for the help though guys...:)

PE

con-pilot
3rd Aug 2006, 16:46
Latest news of Chris is that it is falling apart and may not make into the Gulf except as just a low pressure area consisting of a few thundestorms after passing over Cuba.

Of course it could regain its strength in the Gulf, but as of now it is looking like a non-even.

The last report has it downgraded to a Tropical Depression.:ok:

colmac747
3rd Aug 2006, 17:32
The Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme Model (bet that's difficult to say when pissed) which forecast intensity for tropical cyclones is now forecasting it to become a hurricane by +120hrs when it's in the Gulf:hmm:

con-pilot
3rd Aug 2006, 18:18
The Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme Model

Shoot, that is hard to say cold stone sober.

There is only one thing that 100% accurate about hurricanes, you can't really predict what they are going to do.

As I posted earlier, if it makes into the gulf, it may redevelop.

However, in spite of all dire predictions from last year there has not been a lot of hurricane activity this year and the season is about half way over, let's hope it stays that way.