Asia Pacific Staff Shortage Crisis - Aviation industry

[AllInGoodTime]

Have been reading recently that there is a predicted crisis in the aviation industry for staff . Over 100,000 general staff (Admin, HR, IT, Ground etc) and around the 11,000 mark for pilots. Biggest area of short fall being India and China/Hong Kong and that is based on current aircraft orders, not future orders.

What are peoples thoughts, I know that people have always said that there will never be a shortage, but we have never had such unprecedented growth in the Asia pacific area before. Though will it be of any career benefit to us here in OZ. Will there be a flow on effect as senior pilots and other technical specialist go O/S.

[greenslopes]

Yeh, yeh, blah,blah,blah.
My old man was teling me of the impending aviation shortage twenty years ago. No I'm not one of the bitter and twisted,just heard it all before!

[Aussie]

Ill believe it when i see it!!

Aussie

[AllInGoodTime]

Yes, I know. I don't really expect there to be a huge shortage in OZ, but wonder what people thought about opportunities in Asia and also that there maybe a slight flow on effect here.

[Chimbu chuckles]

The shortfall in Asia is very real...that is a shortage of experienced, type rated captains and to a lesser extent FOs...particularly FOs that can be promoted quickly.

Failing a huge downturn caused by high oil.

[Pass-A-Frozo]

Oil price may change the profitability of many routes..

however failing that.. One way to change the shortage... Increase salary.

[skol]

Might well be a shortage in Asia, but only if you want to go and work for them and be treated like s***. I investigated heading off to KAL a few years back, had an interview and was appalled by what went on. No thanks.

[Ramboflyer 1]

If only CX would take direct entry F/Os at least the salary there is good.
I would expect command salarys to increase to around the 300k usd mark but only for contract work, that way if things go bad they can get rid of you...

And MR Chimbu although you say a shortage, there is not that many decent jobs yet, SQ looks ok but the salary is crap especially if you already have the rating....I would expect some pay rises in the near futue............

[Chimbu chuckles]

Sorta true...but both SQ and where I work have given pay rises in the last year or so...substantial ones.

Perhaps not enough but only time and crewing issues will prove that case one way or another. There will never be a time when Management cave and give a massive payrise to resolve issues in one all encompasing fell swoop...they will be dragged kicking and screaming to incremental pay raises (and not to forget other T&C issues like rostering/leave practices) until they stumble over the mimimum required to crew their aeroplanes. To expect otherwise would be plain dumb.

Assuming no further oil shocks substantial enough to cause a downturn I suspect we are nearing a time when a 'bidding war' will start between airlines trying to attract sufficient experienced pilots to their left seats...certainly in the expat world.

I tend to think that 'enlightened' management may be go the route of;

1/. Hiring relatively innexperienced JFOs and type rating them in exchange for a substantial bond. Paying them reasonably.

2/. Hiring experienced SFO and type rating them if required in exchange for a reasonable bond. Paying them more reasonably.

3/. Paying their experienced captains very well to ensure they stay around.

3a/. Hiring DECs where possible and the need exists.

4/. Paying training and checking staff obscenely well to ensure they stay around to ensure 1/. and 2/. end up being 3/. and later for some 4/.

3a/. and 4/. will be where the bidding war is...not 1/. and 2/.

Nothing concentrates the mind of airline management quite like the prospect of cancelled flights and parked aircraft.

Something needs to be done to stabilise a workforce that has become very mobile...one reason it has become mobile is because of less enlightened airline management practices...they need to structure T&Cs in such a way as to hold on to pilots...The "you are easily replaced' attitude is becoming harder to sustain in the light of a new reality...which is kinda nice.

For the last few years we have been seeing increased hiring among many asian, European and ME airlines (not to mention VB and now JQ) and attendant musical chairs between experienced crew doing the DEC shuffle. Even in the US crew numbers are becoming a limiting factor to recovering load factors and cancelled flights are happening as airlines madly recall furloughed pilots.

I think the biggest problem facing Flight Ops management and Training departments at many airlines now and into the future is a lack of depth. You just cannot take an Easterns Dash FO and turn him into a good jet captain in 5 minutes...or 2 years....hence many airlines are hiring DECs. EK, KA (freighter), JQ, SQ (freighter)...CX looking at 'based' DEFOs on passenger fleet. Places like EK and SQ Cargo don't even need you to be type rated to be a DEC. Pilots are changing companies and going LHS 767->LHS 744, LHS 737->LHS 777 etc.

I know pilots at many 'good' airlines scattered around Australia, SE Asia and the ME, and we ALL look at the planned fleet expansion at our employers, look at the average experience levels and numbers of pilots being attracted to our employers, whether they be DEC or FO, do the numbers and wonder what the hell is going to save us from working our arses off in the next several years and beyond. We can all tell stories of candid chats with those members of our respective Training Departments who wonder the same thing...they spend their lives constantly training. From time to time you hear of various plans to alleviate the problem and wonder whether whomever came up with that plan lives on another planet. There is a degree of 'clutching at straws' happening at some airlines.

As for skol's comments...well we have all heard those sorts of comments about KAL and Korea in general. But that is not the case everywhere in Asia. What is a constant in the expat/contract world is they pay you to do a job and are less than interested in your personal (work related) issues...some will tell you to your face "If you don't like it here, leave"...although that may become less common in the near future:E

Having said that I am constantly very impressed with my own (asian) Fleet Managements reactions when, for instance, a pilot's parent dies or is very sick or a child needs flying out due sickness. "Ok you get on a flight and we'll take care of covering your roster!" I have seen guys on a flight home 2 hours later, on a jumpseat if required, and the rostering mayhem that results..and the complete lack of moaning from other crews, of whatever ethnic background, when they are told why their roster has just turned on it's head.

Unionised workforces don't exist and expats who cannot get their head around the fact that XYZ Asian country is NOT Australia, New Zealand, UK or the US tend to have a hard time...often self inflicted in my experience. Having said that there are a ****LOAD of 'western' pilots, of both sexes, having a BALL living in various asian countries flying good equipment over interesting routes and drinking in interesting bars in interesting cities and not sweating the little things....from time to time bordering on too good a time:E

At least when we get a payrise Costello doesn't get half of it.:ugh:

[ITCZ]

Pilot shortage? Yes, looks like it is real this time. But do you know what companies and governments really want to do about it?

They won't pay us more. They will 'simplify' the task and lower the training standards.

ICAO is considering a Multicrew Pilot License, where an ab initio does about 60 hrs of flying in a lightie then thats it, he/she goes into a 180hr simulator program on a generic turbine aircraft and comes out qualified to fly right seat in a jet transport. 45 weeks start to finish.

http://www.eurocockpit.be/content/view/409/267/

http://www.ainonline.com/issues/11_04/11_04_icaomullsp78.html

Cant get enough pilots that meet company and legislative requirements. Dont pay the pilots more, lower the requirements!!!!!!!

[Ramboflyer 1]

Bet the insurance companies increase the premiums......
Im giving flying away i think ill sell insurance instead...........

[halas]

There seems to always be a fresh supply as soon as any proported shortage appears. Particularly for EK....

'89
C3000
Ansett
US furlough's
Many other closures
etc, etc.....

Now the new one is Varig. Few thousand of them on the international market will sponge up any shortage for a while.

And holding on to long-time pilots doesn't seem to fit non-western airlines. If they are getting incremental salary increases each year. This can creep up and make them turn into expensive labour when they can be replaced for a fraction of the cost!

Food for thought, now l will just get my coat....

halas

[Chimbu chuckles]

Some very 'glass half empty' views here. If you need to make yourselves feel glum fill your boots...I don't feel that need.

The proposed MCP licence is merely an idea as far as I can tell. 'Pilots' who graduate from that licence course, if and when it happens, will be near useless in the real world without a heavy additional training burden...will airlines be prepared to shoulder that burden? I doubt it.

Will private individuals chose this training route without a guaranteed job at the end to offset the huge expense involved to end up with a 'licence' which won't even let them fly a C206 on their own if the fabled airline job doesn't eventuate? I don't think so.

What % of airline management pilots will feel able to embrace the concept of the licence and actually risk the pitfalls of hiring such an individual? Unless the answer is "Lots" no one will risk the capital expenditure to set up the first school.

Where is the requirement really? I don't see it this side of exhausting the market of 300-500 hour CPLs...despite the rhetoric they would be cheaper to train and you can just stop recruiting them when the demand drops...not so easy to just 'switch off' the infrastructure required for the MCC course.

Less people are choosing 'pilot' as a job because of perceived better conditions of employment in any number of other jobs. Military air is a fraction of the size it was up until the 70s and is contributing less pilots to the overall pool...most of that smaller pool are busy bombing people at present too...many mil pilots furloughed from the airlines and back in the saddle and not available to the airlines. All the ex mil pilots from that big training period in the 60s and 70s are now hitting 60 and retiring.

Yes I think the falling experience levels is what drives the general 'dumbing down' of our job by Boeing and Airbus' increased reliance on technology but, unlike train drivers, there is a very real limit to that which can be achieved in a vehicle not sitting on rails.

It seems as if we may be approaching a bit of a 'perfect storm' pilot numbers wise. China and India in the mix for the first time..even if their growth halves it will still require more pilots than they can train...they'll just be short 8000 instead of 11000. The US market expanding and recalling furloughed pilots, EK wanting to double their fleet size by 2012 (How many furloughed yanks will go home?), KA back in expansion mode on behalf of their new owners, CX, who also continue to recruit.

JQ recruiting like crazy, QF recruiting in a measured way, SQ short of 100s of captains, VN recruiting, Ryanair, BA having a hard time keeping up with retirements, Orient Thai:uhoh: ...it goes on and on.

The minimum time to take a cadet from interview to LHS jet is 8-10 years. A proposed MCC grad would be no different.

Cadets and particularly MCP licence holders wil never be more than a small % overall. An MCP graduate, if one ever exists, will never be more of a threat, and probably much less of a threat, than someone graduating a normal school with a CPL and ATPL subjects passed. A bare CPL is nearly useless...a MCP licence on it's own will be truly useless.

Around the world 1000s of pilots are hitting 60 and retiring. For most that is a shame as they are still top of their game...for many it's 5 years past the top of theirs..for a few it's more like 10:hmm: For the first time ever the age 60 rule looks like it will be revised upwards in such a manner as to negate the efforts of the few countries who really are head in the sand over the issue...France and the US.

Taking a very broad view it is not unrealistic to suggest industry growth may actually be constrained by available, qualified and experienced warm bodies to occupy the forward facing window seats.

I am actually beginning to think the industry NEEDS to pause and take a deep breath...actually stop expanding at the current rate because to keep doing so looks very much like a potential train wreck in the making at some point in the not so distant future.

When you operate into London, Dubai, HK, BKK, Frankfurt and any number of US ports you begin to realise what a fine line we run safety wise. Boeing and Airbus technology cannot replace experience to a great enough extent to make an arrival into one of the above ports at peak hour much less risky than it is. If you haven't flown outside Australia try to imagine Sydney with double the traffic and a sky full of tired pilots (many of whom don't have english as a first language) at the end of a longhaul...then turn the weather on.

When you add airport congestion, the lack of infrastructure spending (1960s/70s ATC technology in most parts of the world..even the US) + reduced ATC numbers/experience around the world caused by the eternal beancounter mantra of 'increased productivity' (less people working a lot harder and burning out) to that 'perfect storm' I mentioned above it's not hard to see a problem brewing that only experience can mitigate against...and even then not all the time.

Experienced ATCOs are retiring or changing jobs for less stressful, better paid ones at a scary rate too.

Engineers are in shorter supply than pilots and the beancounters are still hammering them worse than us.

Now we can have tired pilots flying aircraft with more MEL items into extremely busy airports staffed by too few ATCOs, tired too, and working with outdated technology...wanna add minimally experienced pilots to that mix.:uhoh:

There is going to be some very big money on offer to pilots with the right experience.

I don't think beancounters are capable of taking that breather voluntarily...maybe the only thing that can save us from 'too much of a good thing' is $150/barrel oil.

I think we live in very interesting times.

[Gyro drifter]

Chimbu your posts are some of the best ive seen on these forums for a while.

We just need your kind of thinking heading up one of these union groups.

Great work.

Gyro

[Ramboflyer 1]

Good luck to the highest bidder, they will be the most successful airline in history.
A time where greed is bad , the middle east will eventually pay the price for this....

[Chimbu chuckles]

It's not just the 'big shiny new widebody' end of the industry that is beginning to feel the pinch either.

Just in the last few days I was chatting to an Air Niugini Checky mate on skype and he asked if I knew any pilots who might be interested and qualified to be DEC Dash 8 at Pixie...they need at least a couple but I could not think of anyone.

Why this is interesting is because up until the last couple of years Pixie has not hired DECs for roughly 20 years. The few they have hired back, so far, are all pilots in their 50s and 60s who flew in PNG in the past. Clearly that is a very understocked pool to go fishing in.

Pixie's last effort at DECs resulted in a influx of ex RAAF pilots who succeeded in earning for the Dash 7 fleet the nickname of the 'minus 7 recon squadron' because they spent so much time wandering around the highlands above MORA looking down before diverting to their alternate:E . To be fair some of them left and the remainder matured into very good PNG pilots.

Most, if not all the SWP airlines have not had a payrise in 15 years and exchange rates have further savaged what were once extremely attractive packages.

Many, like me, got out of SWP/PNG aviation 6+ years ago (which was still probably later than optimum but I were having fun:} ) and have gone on to widebody airlines, corporate etc.

The guys who stayed were either too old to change..well into their 50s..or too stuck in a comfort zone and secretly hoped things would turn around (like I was for years:ugh: )...had kids in school etc.

They now find themselves heading for their mid 40s, kids older and all of a sudden they take a good long look at what their pay has become worth in real terms...almost by stealth..and think :uhoh:

The general comment is "Chuck it's not as much fun as it used to be...we haven't had a payrise in over 10 years and the exchange rate is in the toilet...I gotta get outa here!!"

They are now very saleable commodities...12-15000 hours, loads of jet experience in a variety of types, check and training etc. They can leave and maintain their seat or at worst spend only a year or 3 back in the rhs...no problem.

But who replaces them? Easy you say...the FOs who have been flying with them gleaning all the good tricks for these years.

Nope...they are gone or going. They are generally 10-30 years younger than the captains and VERY attractive to the likes of EK.

Flying large turboprops and smaller jets around PNG and the SWP is at least as challenging, even for an experienced pilot, as Dubai on the worst day...for different reasons.

Tropical weather, high terrain, useless/absent ATC, limited suitable alternates in daytime become scarce as rocking horse poop at night further complicated by weather reporting that ranges from non existant to abismal. Non precision approaches the norm...when they are serviceable...and, in PNG, often 'visual' approaches only....no IAL procedures in the hills.

This kind of flying requires great skill and experience. The guys still doing it mostly got their start in C185s/206s and progressed through Islanders, Twin Otters, Bandits, Saabs, Dash 8s, F28s and now fly around 'perfectly safely' in B737s, F100s etc. 20-30 years of current PNG/Pacific experience...replace it if you can.

No amount of technology helps because it all becomes a liability somewhere around the MORA on a 'visual' approach into a highlands port.

This flying is hands, feet and brains...which is why so many of us enjoyed it for so long.

The depth of experience coming up behind them is just not there. The really talented FOs have left already or are having interviews and serving notice. A proportion of the remaining FOs are not terribly talented or bone lazy and a very few are talented and happy with their lot and not interested in leaving...still stuck fast to their comfort zone...which is perfectly reasonable, never underestimate a comfort zone.

The traditional well of potential recruits to these airlines is drying fast/essentially dry because places like PNG don't have half the GA activity of 10 years ago.

Good pilots, in much smaller numbers, still cut their teeth in these places but don't stay the way we did....they are off in no time to VB, JQ, QF,EK, KA or an SO seat in CX as soon as they have 3-4000 hrs and a 1000 turbine command. ...most of us joined PX around the 7000+ mark with 4-5000 turbine command and stayed another 3 to 5 years minimum...a very few are still there...I would bet that number will halve in the next year or two.

In many of these places the experienced pilots are retiring and the bulk of the FOs are leaving before getting commands to start the juniority clock ticking at a place with shiny new Boeings and Airbus...and 2/3/4 times the pay ++.

There is not an airline in the SWP that is not feeling this pinch right now...how much it currently is hurting varies between really bad RFN and problem...there's a problem...what problem?

There is no better time to be a young commercial pilot with a keen sense of fun and adventure....but the management/beancounter rubber band is seriously stretched.

What is the answer?

About a 200% payrise..and no I am not joking....that would take pay back to where it effectively was in the SWP/PNG 20 years ago.

Will that happen?

Probably not this side of a hull loss or two.

[Pete Conrad]

Chimbu........well worth the read my freind. You have managed to put the whole aviation picture into frame, at least in this part of the world anyway.

I spoke to a freind in Air Pac not that long ago..he said exactly the same as you. Bean counters can prey on the fact that airline management are now becoming masters of putting the fear factor into pilot groups. As we have seen with the likes of JQ, some pilot groups will sell their soul to the devil without really looking 3,5,10 years down the track.

[Metro man]

"Pilots" is too general a word to use in an increasingly specialised industry, you have to specify which type and experience level.

A320/340, B737NG/777/744 rated and EXPERIENCED pilots having a field day at the moment particularly if training qualified and flexible regarding where they will work.

Glass cockpit, multi crew, jet, heavy, command, international, time increasingly sought after by airlines keen to spend the minimum training unrated pilots. You may need to go to Taiwan or the Middle East but the jobs are there.

Piston single pilot drivers may still get lucky with a S/O job or a pay for your own rating deal, but much harder.

With there being a genuine shortage of those at the top of the list, airlines , especially second and third level are having to accept alot less than "rated with 500 hours on type". QANTAS, British Airways, Lufthansa etc will be the last to feel any shortage, but may find they need to widen the selection criteria slightly.

A good attitude, hard work and flexibility still go a long way.

[Aussie]

Interesting posts,

Would be good to see a change happen for the better!

Aussie

[flyby_kiwi]

As has been mentioned ill believe there is a shortage when i see an advert in a magazine that does not require 500hrs on type, have flown the type within the last 12 months, and will arrange work visas for suitable applicants. I imagine the T's&C's would be attractive and i would not have to fund my own type rating or pay to send in my CV :yuk:

[Chimbu chuckles]

As has been mentioned the shortage is NOT in Australia or NZ.

But in Asia and the ME things are getting interesting.

Click on this link and see what is available just via one employment agency...and then ponder how long it will be before many of those adds stop requiring type ratings or experience on type. Or how long before the T&Cs start improving...even allowing for the fact that an employment agency is taking a cut:yuk:

http://www.rishworth.co.nz/opportunities/oppslist.asp?cat=1

Or this post from SE Asia Forum

Rishworth has vacancies for Air India F/Os for 737,777 and 747.

Duration: Long term

Start: Flexible

Type: B737-6/7/8 FIRST OFFICERS UPGRADE OPPORTUNITIES!

Experience: ATPL current within 6 months <500 hours on B737-6/7/8 accepted i.e. no minimum hours requirement CPL - must have 500 hours on B737-6/7/8

Qualifications: B737-6/7/8 TYPE RATING

Benefits: Good base salary and annual bonuses. Accommodation, medical, ground transport, 7 consecutive days free of duty per month. Business class tickets to/from Base Residence for self and spouse provided plus good travel benefits.

Duration: Long term

Start: Flexible

Type: B777 First Officers UPGRADE OPPORTUNITIES!

Experience: ATPL current within 6 months <500 hours on B777 accepted i.e. no minimum hours requirement. CPL - must have 500 hours on B777 Long haul experience desirable.

Qualifications: B777 TYPE RATING

Benefits: Good base salary and annual bonuses. Accommodation, medical, ground transport, 7 consecutive days free of duty per month. Business class tickets to/from Base Residence for self and spouse provided plus good travel benefits.

Duration: Long term

Start: Flexible

Type: B747-300 First Officers UPGRADE OPPORTUNITIES!

Experience: ATPL current within 6 months <500 hours on B747-300 accepted i.e. no minimum hours requirement CPL - must have 500 hours on B747-300 Long haul experience desirable.

Qualifications: B747-300 TYPE RATING

Benefits: Good base salary and annual bonuses. Accommodation, medical, ground transport, 7 consecutive days free of duty per month. Business class tickets to/from Base Residence for self and spouse provided plus good travel benefits



Duration: Long term

Start: Flexible

Type: B747-400 First Officers UPGRADE OPPORTUNITIES!

Experience: ATPL current within 6 months <500 hours on B747-400 accepted i.e. no mimnimum hours requirement. CPL - must have 500 hours on B747-400 Long haul experience desirable.

Qualifications: B747-400 type rating

Benefits: Good base salary and annual bonuses. Accommodation, medical, ground transport, 7 consecutive days free of duty per month. Business class tickets to/from Base Residence for self and spouse provided plus good travel benefits.


Yes they are mostly looking for Captains/Training+Checking pilots....like I said that is where the bidding war will start...but some, as above, are also looking for FOs with upgrade policies in place for expat SFO.

Note the only qualification asked for above, besides an appropriate licence, is a type rating...no previous experience required.

How long before they start providing type ratings and bonding?

Or do you think they will just park aeroplanes?

We live in interesting times.

[Boney]

Agreed ... but will continued high oil prices put a dampener big time on the shortage that has been brewing for the last couple of years but is only now just starting to actually happen?

After all, the industry has had to handle high oil prices for a year now but if it becomes a permanent thing, as it now appears it will, this will change the game plan?

If the price of oil went back down to what it was even just 3 years ago, it would be "jobs for everyone"? But that 'aint gonna happen, especially when US taxes via puppet Israel are busy spreading "Freedom" and "Liberty" in the Middle East.

[Chimbu chuckles]

If you go back to my early posts on this thread you will see I said 'failing another oil shock big enough to cause a recession' or words to that effect.

There is no doubt oil prices are the great :ugh:known

At least half of the current oil price is a combination of supply side problems and world security issues. It really ****s me that the oil companies get to enjoy a grotesque windfall profit because they have been lazy...it ****s me even more that the Futures Traders get to factor in every shot fired/scary face pulled world wide...but there's feckall I can do about that.

I think two scenarios are possible for the next 3-5 years.

1/. Oil just meanders along +/- $5/barrel while the Arabs are taught, yet again, that the west won't let them have their way. I.E. Isreal exists-live with it...and...You can take your world wide Kalifat and shove it. As supply catches up with demand and Iraq, Iran, Lebanon and Palestine climb back in their boxes and promise to behave the price of oil subsides back towards $35/barrel.

2/. **** hits fan in ME. Oil hits $150/barrel. World wide recession. Demand plummets just as production capacity catches up with demand. 6 mths later oil price plummets. 6 mths after that we wake up to $25/barrel oil and the same old grind begins again...10 years later we start the same BS again with Isreal/Palestinians/Hezbollah/Iran.

I saw Dixon quoted recently saying that people had taken the fuel surcharges, that amount to a fare increase (his words), in their stride and demand was still high and growing. If peoples wages are allowed to catch up with the real current cost of living, and no one in Govt, Business or the RBA seems to be keen on that idea, then we might just get used to a new higher cost reality in the short term....like we did in the 70/80s.

I am really glad I live in a little country awash with oil where the price of a liter of petrol/diesel has been the same for as long as anyone seems to be able to remember...and with any luck I will be here until retirement. High oil prices are buying a new fleet:ok:

[L1011]

Good posts Chimbu :ok: Agree with most of what you say.
BUT I am a pessimist, paid to be one in fact as we all are. Personally, I see a future that is somewhere between yours - version 2.5 let's say.
It goes something like this: The oil price continues to climb slowly. Security/War issues remain unsolved. Supply side concerns get worse. (Remember, everyone is pumping at max capacity - doesn't take much to upset the applecart at this speed). Consumption continues to increase as no-one gives a fig about Kyoto etc.
The result? Inflation rises, interest rates go up and up, the housing boom finally deflates (or even collapses - hope not) and discretionary spending takes a huge cut.
This will not affect the ME/Indian/China carriers a whole lot. But it will gut the leisure industry. :sad:
There goes the LCC's bread and butter. No more stag nights in Prague or dirty weekends in Bali. Somewhere closer will have to do. If that comes to pass, the likes of MOL will be as ruthless with their employees and they are now with the competition.
This will mean the crew shortage is over. At least for a while. And the moneymen who run the airlines will chuckle with glee as they put their boot into the pilots.:*
I sincerely hope I am very wrong. But not willing to bet my kid's future on it right now by changing jobs. Guess my glass is half-full!

[Chimbu chuckles]

Lt Dan, Lt Dan (sorry couldn't help myself:} )

Then I wish the potential candidates the best of luck...but if L1011s version 2.5 is accurate they will be redundant in 18 mths or so. What are 'diamond sims'?

L1011...Look here and see why Kyoto probably is not worth giving a fig about.

http://mclean.ch/climate/global_warming.htm

I don't think the ME is pumping at maximum...I read somewhere that the OPEC ministers are worried by the prospect of a glut and collapse of oil prices...as opposed to an orderly reduction. They might be close to max output of currently online oil wells but they are only pumping out of a small fraction of total wells they have.

There seems little doubt too that they are enjoying the high oil prices and 'studying' how much the market will bear....but as an OPEC minister recently said. "We can't drink the stuff...so we must be very careful about overpricing it." or words to that effect.

Having said that I think option 2.5 is entirely feasible...people seem to have breathed a sigh of relief that the real estate bubble has not burst the way it was predicted a few years ago when no one had thought oil at $75-80/barrel was possible.

There can still be an economic bloodbath in Australia...people are hurting big time and all the RBA seems to care about is curbing inflationary pushes in peoples wages. Australians are highly geared.

We live in interesting times.

[Chimbu chuckles]

Ab initio in a twin?

Interesting...no reason why not I suppose.

Sexy looking aeroplanes...particularly the single...nice to see they have gone back to sticks instead of yokes.

There is no technical reason why MCPL cannot work if airlines (or Govts) are prepared to pay...I just wonder if there is a need. The first MCPL grads are a year or three away from sitting in a real airliner and 10+ away from the LHS of one...in 3 years there could be a glut of experienced pilots again...even if only temporarily so.

There is certainly a mood about that flying modern jets is not about flying as such but about managing a system and following SOPs unquestioningly...but every once in a while that theory is tested and several hundred lives generally weigh in the balance.

Certainly some airlines in some countries find their reliance on expensive expats a burden they would do anything to avoid...but Insurance companies and foriegn regulatory bodies like the FAA decide (ultimately) on minimum standards...if you want to insure your fleet and operate into and out of our market you will do x, y and z...or not, we don't care.

I think many African airlines have found this out in recent years. KAL found it out too some years ago.

[Chimbu chuckles]

An article on avweb

Pilot Ranks Dwindling?

General aviation shipments are coming off a record high half-year, but that surge apparently isn't being fueled by new pilots. The Washington Post was at EAA AirVenture this year and, while it may not be a revelation to readers of this publication, informed its audience of the next crisis facing aviation: most pilots are old white guys. The Post reporter solicited opinions from an assortment of 50-something pilots on why the place wasn't teeming with eager, fresh faces and, not surprisingly perhaps, got answers that sound suspiciously like something their parents and grandparents might have said about them 30 or 40 years ago. "The younger ones want instant gratification. Learning to fly is work. You have to work at it," Jack Gilbert, a 57-year-old pilot, told the Post. Gilbert blamed video games and others chimed in that flying lacks the adventure (read: danger?) and intrigue that drew many to it. But what do young people have to say? Oddly, the Post didn't publish response on the topic from any young people but that didn't stop younger folks from lighting up chat rooms. Since there's no way to verify the identities or credibility of chat-room correspondents, the posted comments, like those on airlinepilotforums.com, should always be taken with a grain of salt but a couple of young pilots offered what appear to be their honest and frank assessment. Essentially, they say (we) old folks should chill out and let the ordinary market and social forces do their thing, because they will, anyway. "[Fewer] pilots to fly the planes equals more demand with less supply and maybe higher salaries for those who stuck with it in the future," noted one writer, who said he was a 21-year-old CFI. Another said it's the image of pilots that's turning away young people. "It's always pictures of the stereotypical dork guy or girl with a conservative look wearing a golf shirt. Screw that," says the 19-year-old college aviation program student. "I don't want the new aviators of the sky to be total geeks who have no life outside of aviation."


Student Pilot Numbers Halved

Opinions aside, fewer than half the number of student pilots are today bumping their way through touch and goes and spinning whiz wheels when compared to recent boom times, and the old guard is mobilizing to increase those ranks. One of these initiatives is among the most ambitious recycling projects we've come across. Build A Plane takes donations of unfinished kit airplanes and non-airworthy certified aircraft and distributes them to high schools and youth organizations that want to take them on as projects. Local experts are enlisted to help the kids do the work necessary to make the project fly. There are dozens of projects underway, ranging from a BD-5 to a Twin Comanche. Another group, Wings of Charity, allows dedicated participants to get their private pilot certificate for a vastly reduced price. Wings of Charity operates summer camps in which kids 13-17 get hands-on exposure to flying through an initial five-day program. Those serious about flying come back again in subsequent years, taking a solo program that includes 18 hours of instruction, leading to the first solo, for just $300. The successful soloists can return the following year to finish off their private ticket for another $500. "We're not trying to make pilots out of every one of them -- we want to show them [what] they [can] achieve," Capt. Bill Norwood, a United pilot and program volunteer, told the Southern Illinoisan. "We teach them they can go into an area that is foreign and that they can conquer those challenges. They can take those lessons to other parts of their lives."


Pilots Needed -- Everywhere

Although the tragic events of 9/11 put a damper on the whole aviation industry, it has rebounded and the hiring of pilots in all sectors (quite opposite of new pilot starts) is coming back to the historical highs of the turn of the century, according to Be A Pilot. The current boom is fueled in part by the rapid expansion of airline service in China, India and the Middle East and the worldwide growth of cargo operations. New airlines are luring experienced pilots from North America (where airline pilot pension and job insecurity make headlines) and that means more opportunities for younger, less experienced pilots to get a crack at the jobs left behind. The jury is still out on the impact very light jets (VLJs) will have on the air travel business but if even half of the projected growth materializes it will create thousands of pilot jobs. Be A Pilot is an initiative of AOPA and it's gathered some serious interest in recent weeks. More than 1,000 AOPA members have signed up to mentor student pilots through their training and help keep them from giving up. At EAA AirVenture, AirShares Elite announced it would donate $100,000 worth of flight time to student pilots.

[mattyj]

No shortage of Oil people..I work for Air BP and it is production that is way behind..all the Oil companies, especially us (see Canada operation in the news) have crappy, 30 year old pipelines..still plenty of oil around..but new pump gear, pipelines, refineries required urgently.

The price of oil is determined by international commodity/futures markets..no real relation to reality..just influenced by rumour and bad press in the middle east..simple economics! Price will keep rising-true..but Shell and BP are making record profits cause they won't invest in infrastructure!!
(good for my Christmas bonus..thats if I can afford to drive to work)

[ccy sam]

I'll know there is a true pilot shortage when the likes of dj and jq start paying for the endorsment. Won't happen any time soon!

[400Rulz]

Hi Chimbu
Good posts. I agree with you on most points, although I think it will take a real (not perceived) shortage to make our retention packages more attractive. Re the Air India Charters, they appear attractive, but note that the remuneration rate is not stated....:uhoh: usually has something to do with getting the cheapest/least experienced:}

I have around 12000 hrs heavy jet (767, 747-400) and the offer was USD2000per month less than I make now. Hardly worth the consideration for a mere change of scenery. Besides, my wife hates curry:mad:

There are good packages out there, but they usually involve substantial compromise (security, distance from family, remote locations) and would be fine for a single person.

-400

[Shaman]

Anyone know of an airline in se Asia/Pacific region who might be interested in a part time A320 or 737 captain - say, 50% pay for 50% work sort of thing?

All info gratefully received.

[Jet Jockey]

The only Airline that I know you might have a chance with the 50% pay is Jetstar but they generally expected a 120% from there workforce!!!

[julietmikepapa]

Chimbu

All good stuff - particularly as I am looking at options in the greater region. Your employer sounds very reasonable, do you mind me asking where you are? PM me if you prefer.

Cheers

[max autobrakes]

[quote=Chimbu chuckles]
I think the biggest problem facing Flight Ops management and Training departments at many airlines now and into the future is a lack of depth. You just cannot take an Easterns Dash FO and turn him into a good jet captain in 5 minutes...or 2 years....]

Come on Chimbu this doesn't seem to stop AJ ,it happens all the time in JetStar.
All you need to be, is either on the JPC or be a mate from the Ansett club or both. :}