Global pilot shortage

[FlingWingKing]

Read in the paper yesterday that Boeing projects a need for 18000 pilots a year globally untill 2024. ICAO also annonced the increase to 65 from 60, the age pilots are allowed to operate. I am sure many ailines will follow soon and up their retiring age too.

This is good news for us drivers, as the time is approaching where we can ask a bit more for our services.

[wheels up]

Looks like its come the full circle. Remember reading similar posts back in 2000 when there was talk of the USA dishing out green cards to foreign pilots due to the imminent shortage of heavy machinery operators! Make hay while the sun shines.

[Shrike200]

Ah, the much fabled pilot shortage! Would this be an actual pilot shortage, or just a shortage of A380/SR71/Space Shuttle rated pilots willing to work 6 months on, 1 week off for 500 $ per month with a 20 year training bond?

Just kidding, I've always hoped it comes about in my lifetime! It's just....I've heard this one before. :ouch:

[FlingWingKing]

"Remember reading similar posts back in 2000...."

We are getting back to where the figures were pre-911, hence the similarity to the 2000 posts.

If there is movement up top, there will surely be movement at the bottom. There is a need to 1000 pilots in the Middle East and about 3000 in China at the present moment....I was told. Airlines are trying to tap into the 1bil passenger underutilised Indian market.

Only time will tell whether this is fact or fable.......

[wheels up]

Shrike

There will ALWAYS be a shortage of pilots with winglet time.

ha, ha

[Shrike200]

Ha ha! Of course, how could I forget! That all important, yet elusive winglet time!

[porridge]

This is an extract from an article in the Times last year which was titled:
"China and India lure Pilots from the West to plug gaps"
CHINESE airlines are rushing to recruit qualified European pilots to counter a potential shortfall of 8,000 pilots over the next ten years.
The challenge to European airlines is also coming from India as it scrambles to lure captains from the West.
China’s booming commercial aviation industry is taking off more rapidly than the country can train pilots, and so airlines are being allowed to recruit foreigners for the first time. At least 100 European pilots have been hired by Hainan Airlines, Shenzhen Airlines, Sichuan Airlines and Okay Airways, China’s first private operator, this year. More are expected.
Also see this article from the IHT: http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/06/26/news/pilots.php
Futhermore a Chinese businessman, who I know in the UK, is talking to the CAAC about getting qualified European pilots who do not have type rating to go and work in China in return for a type rating and wide bodied jet experience to fill the gaps until Chinese nationals come on line from basis training. Another option is recruiting foreign instructors to work there with the incentive of getting onto jets as part of the deal after have done a stint of primary training for Chinese pilots. It would appear that the real lack of primary training resources.
GA in China is also a major growth area see this article about a GA Expo in Bizhou in AVBuyer: www.avbuyer.com/PDFs/P%5B1%5D.20.pdf
I spent a couple of years selling airliners in China in the 90's and would suggest it is certainly be more attractive place to work and gain experience than in say the DRC!

[Beeech19]

Ok, so we all know that there is a "global shortage" of pilots.

How short is SA of pilots???

Can someone give us some facts and figures here from the SA airlines?

waiting...:ugh:

[MungoP]

Pilot shortage ha ha ha ha ..
Maybe a shortage of type-rated pilots with 500+ on type...
Have a look through any of the multiple aircrew vacancy web-sites and check how many employers are looking for non-typed pilots... ( don't hold your breath )

The world is full of pilots with a couple or more thousand hours flying turbo-props who I would be grateful to have in the right hand seat on a sh*tty night when ATC has forgotten where the plug for the radar is... yet the only non typed pilots getting employed appear to be Frozen with a few hundred useless hours as flying instructors...

[FlingWingKing]

Heard 10 guys from Comair leaving for Emirates.....

Thats a start.

SAA short by at least 20 pilots.

[Shrike200]

Sure, SAA is short by XX number of pilots.......but that doesn't seem to be all that relevant AA since interferes with the normal process of hiring there. Perhaps 'relevant' is the wrong word - I should say that it doesn't have as much bearing on the issue as it would have were the situation normal in SA.

So, I don't believe SA has a shortage of pilots at all - indeed I would say we have a very clear surplus.

[SIC]

Right Shrike - surplus is the word.

HOWEVER Emirates will take just about anybody with 4000 hours and some jet time in the next few years, and so wil some other Eastern companies. So what might:rolleyes: happen is more guys from Comair, NTW etc might:rolleyes: leave for the sandpit and that might:rolleyes: help along averybody farting around Africa in 200's. You might:rolleyes: even have considered it if it wasnt for the fact that your honey makes more money than a pilot ever will...;) ;)

Do I use the word might:rolleyes: a lot - guess cause it MIGHT:rolleyes: happen - or not....:ugh:

[Solid Rust Twotter]

The problem remains jet time. Can't get a jet job without it and can't get it without a jet job if lack of funds prohibit paying for a rating....:(

[Shrike200]

Hey, my honey would make even more money in the sandpit! But she's not so keen...I'm looking forward to when I can retire and run the house! :8

SRT - Comair, Nwide, Link, and SAX will all hire people without jet time - I would say it's normal actually. The problem then is obviously the seriously limited opportunity, I know. It's a crazy situation...it's like there's a big bottleneck, sitting right in SAA's HR department or something...

[nugpot]

SAX has employed 26 pilots over the last six months (6 of those are cadets), and there might be some more opportunities later this year.

I was impressed with the quality of the candidates interviewed. It shows a remarkable depth of experience available and proves that we are not that short in SA yet. Overall, I think that the influence of the cadet program has perhaps limited the scope/choice for other pilots, but the impact on numbers has not been as large as originally thought.

With the Middle-Eastern airlines hiring for all they're worth, I think that anybody with over 2000 hrs, multi-crew and turbine is in an excellent position for employment at an SA airline over the next 12 months.

The only worry would be the possible effect of very high oil prices.

[Solid Rust Twotter]

We can only hope....:ok:

[Avi8tor]

My Old Man has been in the industry for the last 40 yrs, the pilot shortage has been 5 yrs away for the last 40 yrs. The industry in SA has seen huge growth in airline jobs in the last 10 yrs. I could see it creating 40 or 50 jobs per yr. The prob here is that the cadet schemes ,that are paid for by TITA, are creating about that many pilots. I am NOT here to debate the racial issues of that, so please just take the fact that they will be with us for the forseeable future as read. Bitching about it wont change the facts.

Having been in airline selection for a large number of yrs, the quality of candidates is largely good. Plenty of good young guys with twin,turbine time out there. Also NO shortage of good young guys that will buy there 1st rating.

As for SAA being short of pilots, lets get real. If they managed to get the right number of ppl in the right fleets, i suspect they could do with about 100 pilots less!! Dont think many guys there are flying 81 hrs every 28 days.

The point about guys leaving the country, what is making that less attractive is that with the rand being strong, the loot just aint enough. A shiny new UAE outfit were offering $4000 a month for RATED 777 co joes. That doesnt sound like there that short to me. (btw go look on flightinternational's website)

Had a SAA 738 captain brag to me that he earned MORE than a Delta captain in the states. And a small heads up here, salaries are falling in the USA, another of the 'big 5' just took a 25% pay cut. And $75 a barrel wont help anybody.

So lets just keep the expectations real, keep sending out the CV's.

[Stayinalive]

We can only hope that the long suffering African and M East contract guys finally get the call if any of this is true.:rolleyes: A vacume created here by our already Airline employed and experienced crews who leave for greener pastures to fill the Global shortage, :hmm: I suspect will be filled again by the needy cadets who are seen as the saviours of aviation in SA so as to balance the political hoo ha of quotas.
Will see u guys again in the same remote parts of Africa for a beer for some time to come I believe.:ugh: