Are we witnessing a paradigm shift in aviation?

[Elroy Jettson]

There was a time in history, when sailing the seven seas was grand, the pay and conditions of captains and officers on board were enviable, and highly sought after and competitive. Countries were proud of both their navy and merchant navy fleets. Companies were proudly nationalistic in their hiring of crews in all ranks.

Today, the world of shipping is made up of ships registered in the cheapest third world country you can register in, or tax free havens. The officers are made up of ex soviet or eastern block mariners from disbanded navies and the engine rooms manned by Pilipino, and Chinese sailors, being paid in food and board. The odd cruise ship has a Scandinavian captain just to keep up appearances. Maintenance is no longer regulated, and an issue of great concern to environmentalists worldwide. Unionism and protectionism has been smashed on all quarters by individuals and minority groups willing to undercut even the lowest paying positions in the industry.

Is this where we are headed? Is history repeating itself?

[Continental-520]

If history repeats itself, it will be a lot easier to land airline jobs, and airline pilots will earn serious amounts of money, CRM will disappear, you'll address your Captain as "Sir", and it will return to being perceived as one of the most glamorous jobs that exist.

Take a look at that movie "Catch me if you can", if you haven't seen it.

520.

[dirty deeds]

Yes I do think so, but the cost of becoming a pilot is far more exspensive than manning a boiler room and there are not enough third world Airforces to crew these new generation of aircraft. The demand for sea fairing travel was the cause effect of reducing conditions for these workers, yet the demand for air travel in places like India and China are set to double next year and double again the year after, so you do the math! Where are all these drivers going to come from. The demand for pilots will be there, lets just hope that the bird flu or terrorism dosen't come along to spoil the bidding war between airlines for pilots. But the sad fact about Aus, no one wants to leave so if you decide to stay here, accept the third world conditions in a first world country or live in a third world country on first world conditions. Or form one union and shove it to them. These are our two choices!

[certifs]

Yes.
I have been pondering this change for a few years now. I agree with your example of shipping, I hadn't thought of that example, but it's true.

I have always liked to compare aviation to railways. Railways were the premier technology of the mid to late 19th century, aviation mid to late 20th century. A huge number of young lads (no girls had the opportunity in those days) wanted to be engine drivers or otherwise involved in the industry. Compare the cultural attitudes of eg Nesbiths 1906 "The Railway Children", with attitudes most aviation minded people hold about flying now. However, also compare this to what people think of train drivers these days (I have both friends and rellies who are/were train drivers so don't read me as disparaging them, but the esteem of their calling has slid markedly in 100 years).
Pilots will be considered the same in future. Maybe sooner than we expect.

Certifs

[Elroy Jettson]

520, those days are long gone, I would seriously recommend that movie to anyone with insomnia, an almost instant cure. Wages are headed south, some good ole boys still demand to be called captain though... :yuk: It is certainly getting easier to land airline jobs though, all you have to do is undercut the next bloke, and pay for your own training! Easy! :ok:

DD, airlines no longer worry about training costs, there seems to be a steady stream of candidates willing to pay for it themselves, I guess paying for your own renewals will be next. The only thing that will end this is when banks refuse to loan money for an endorsement costing more than you will earn over 12 or even 24 months, and parents will no longer re mortgage their house to fulfil little Rudager's dream of flying. Not holding my breath.

China and India arent talking about raising salaries, they are actively seeking ways of lowering the bar. They want to introduce a licence for Jets only, so someone does all their training on the sim of the type they will go on to, from abinitio to line check. We already have airlines around Europe who do not train FOs in engine out work. The bar will be lowered, there is no bidding war.

[Elroy Jettson]

Agree 100% Certifs. The train driver analogy fits perfectly as well. Plenty of trains around the world without drivers now. Come to think of it, there are plenty of aircraft around and being developed without pilots too... Only a matter of time... Wonder what the next boom industry could be? :confused:

[*Lancer*]

The shipping and rail industries have largely been replaced/augmented by the road and air industries... Ultimately it was aviation that led to the demise of the wealth and prestige in shipping and rail.

As developing economies (third world) develop and expand their air industries, established economies (first world) will need 'the next step' to maintain a competitive advantage. China will overtake the US as the world's largest economy within 18 months. India has already overtaken Japan. When you throw in an oil crisis on top of all that...

The coming revolution will impact much, much more than aviation.

[Dynasty Trash Hauler]

Yes, the sky is falling in. Before you know it, airline pilots will be begging in the street to finance the wife’s new Volvo and the kids will only be able to afford a Dell instead of the latest Mac. Terrible state of affairs.

There are more airline jobs in Australia than ever before as a result of deregulation – do you really want to go back to the old closed shop days when only a select few were given the privilege of flying a jet.

Elroy – what do you do? Where are you currently employed?

[1DC]

The merchant navys' of the world were lost to low cost operations because it was easy to move to flags of convenience which were poorly regulated and allowed the employment of cheap crews.
If a ship's engine failed because of poor maintenance or lack of experience the ship just drifted until someone figured out how to fix it or instructions were passed over the satellite phone. In some cases the ship was towed to port but ship's were very rarely lost.The introduction of satnav means ships don't get lost anymore, in fact many owners can look on their laptops and see exactly where in the world their ship is.You can only get away with poor standards for so long, the oil industry which was my employment eventually produced their own standards, if an oil tanker didn't achieve those standards it would not be chartered by an oil major.Most oil majors are now owning and operating their own ship's again because the consequences of failure,i.e. oil pollution, is too great a risk and the punishment too high.
Now I know that a planeload of passengers crashing doesn't have the same media impact as an oil spill and putting a few seals and sea otters at risk, but in the main you are handling passengers and they will soon put an airline with a poor safety record on their blacklists (if i can't say that then read it as "take them off their white lists!). Poor maintenance and lack of experience by cheap crews in the airline industry will lead to accidents and a loss of the main assett so I don't think the merchant navy scenario will be mirrored in the airline industry. I also wonder if countries are as open to flags of convenience in the airline industry as they were in the marine industry.

[Woomera]

Good question, it might draw some interesting and hopefully fresh responses

We are certainly seeing some radical changes in Oz aviaton and all around us.

BTW this does not represent an opportunity for a slagfest, so lets keep it to the thread question.

[Elroy Jettson]

DTH, I have PM'd you my employment details, I am not sure how it influences this discussion. Also, like most people on this forum, I wish to maintain the anonimity afforded to me by posting under an alias. Suffice to say, I am employed in Australia flying aircraft.

[Elroy Jettson]

Great contribution thanks 1DC. Flag carrying - Should Qantas still be considered a flag carrier? The govenment just moved to protect our flag carrier on the Pacific. This flag carrier is a private carrier with 49% capped foreign ownership, aircraft leased from overseas leasing firms (no, not all of them), is actively seeking to move jobs overseas, and the CEO stating that Australian aircrew and engineers should not have a monopoly on operating these aircraft. Flight attendants lost that monopoly years ago. In my humble opinion, Qantas has forgone its right to protection as an Australian flag carrier. This I believe is the modern business worlds equivalent of flags of convenience.

[DutchRoll]

Yes, the sky is falling in. Before you know it, airline pilots will be begging in the street to finance the wife’s new Volvo and the kids will only be able to afford a Dell instead of the latest Mac. Terrible state of affairs.
There are more airline jobs in Australia than ever before as a result of deregulation – do you really want to go back to the old closed shop days when only a select few were given the privilege of flying a jet.
There are more airline jobs than ever before because much of the western world has been enjoying a decade and a half or so of unprecendented economic growth, deregulated or not. There are people now in the workforce who don't even know what an economic downturn is, let alone a recession. I don't disagree with deregulation per se, but it is a double-edged sword.

No-one is arguing that major airline pilots aren't currently well paid. But their successors are already working for substantially less generous conditions and there isn't any sign of this downward trend changing. It's true that market forces come into play, but it's equally true that we're our own worst enemies when it comes to the tough negotiations.

[dirty deeds]

It all over in this country, unless we form one union.

[Elroy Jettson]

Unions are only as good as the industrial relation laws that support them. Under new legislation, unions are effectively left impotent. Who has been actively advising our government on draft legislation? You guessed it! QF through the Australian Business Council! Australian pilot solidarity is fragmented at best. The Qantas group cant even get it together. The one thing that will fuse all of us, is if these attacks on conditions flow on to become a reduction in standards or licsencing requirements. Lowering the bar is a more likely outcome of a pilot shortage, not higher wages. Poaching of captains will be a short term fix for some organisations, but for the most, it will be reducing requirements and or standards. Flight operations and management will deny it of course, saying it is an inevitable change from the draconian pre deregulation days, and the changes simply bring us into line with worlds best practice.

[DutchRoll]

Profit-sharing would be one way to alleviate the problem, but companies like QF show no inclination at all of entering into any sort of employee profit-sharing except for a few select people :hmm:. Anyway, this is all going to be problematic for airline pilots from this point on.

[Sunfish]

Yes, the prestige is slipping just like it did for rail and sea transport.

Of course you can always start thinking about the next prestige flying job - Captain of a Virgin Galactic space clipper, now that will have the prestige an airline captain used to have!

[Grivation]

Actually the sea-going industry has already turned the corner and wages and conditions are well on the way back. Most companies have realised that operating with the 'lowest tender' just doesn't cut the mustard in the current day market.

But guess what? No one has been doing any training in the traditional maritime nations for the last 15 years or so. Therefore - shortage of well trained, qualified, ship's officers. Therefore, big dollars being offered!

How does A$225,00 sound for 2 weeks on, 2 weeks off? Being offered in Australia right now!

Walk down the flightline at any GAAP airport and have a look at how much training is being done. Hopefully, in aviation, we're at the bottom of the cycle.

[QFinsider]

Honestly guys,

Our economy and every western economy is facing a "paradigm shift" not as a result of the result at J*-Good luck to them they will need it..

Our economy suffers from its own success in the post WW2 years. We are facing skilled labour shortages in the vicinity of 110,000 by 2010.

Skilled migration will not fix it, $3000 Plasma TV bonues(baby bonuses) will not fix it. Sure they will lower the bar, they will probably raise the retirement age to 65..all short terms measures. The simple fact is that every empire declines. It has happened throughout history.

What that means in an increasingly globalised world is anybody's guess. One thing that has not changed throughout history is that resources are allocated where they obtain their best return. In the case of labour a skills shortage means that those with skills will command better "returns" or wages.

Of course the government is concerned about relative costs for business will legislate to fix it ..Remember the IR reforms?? Their purpose is to limit the ability of real wage growth when shortages bite through many industries...Look at the mining industry, reeal wage growth is needed to entice skilled and quality labour. No wonder GD loves it!

So instead of fragmenting each other in the race for the job, watch what happens..As many of the baby boomers are sitting in management, they are used to it working their way...They simply don't see they change..It is coming you simply got to take a broader view. As hard as it seems right now, the malaise the government has allowed to fester will cause a deal of pain when the changes that will inevitibly follow begin to bite....The economy will need skilled engineers, skilled pilots, builders, plumbers and miners!

Stuff Dixon he is really yesterday's man. When he goes his legacy will be no different to Al Dunlap....

The sad bit is the damage he does to good engineering, pilots, cabin crew and the other areas hit by his "chainsaw" along the way:mad:

[Elroy Jettson]

Interesting Grivation. $225,000 sounds like more than most airline captains in OZ get. 2 on 2 off is definitely more than most aircrew get. Are these wages for captains? Is it a base salary with allowances etc lumped on top? Just interested to see if we are comparing apples with apples.

As with most trends, (stocks, shares etc) it takes something big to swing the sentiment of the masses. I don’t share your optimism that we have found the bottom. The feverish pace at which airline management is slashing at wages and conditions, I personally feel it has a way to go before they get tired of it. Just the thought of it makes their eyes roll back, and the saliva run from the corners of their mouths. I fear they are just warming up. The government is about to issue them with new sharper machetes too, in the form of new IR rules.

[QFinsider]

As to the proposed IR reforms, whilst they may in fact be passed by the rubber stamp in federal parliament, they are a long way from operational. My information tells me the States challenges are creating a number of serious issues both for the scope and application of the said reforms.....:E

[Chimbu chuckles]

More IR reforms?

Bring it on I say....can't think of anything else that will unite workers quicker.

What will they do when faced with MASSIVE WIDESPREAD civil dissobedience?

How long do you think people will put up with having their aspirations shattered while a few reap millions in bonuses?

How long before the Libs self destruct at the polling boothes from ideological excess?

Maybe we'll finally see AFAP and AIPA work together?

The J* boys and girls had no choice but to vote up the EBA under current circumstances...but I think all this is going to blow up in Little Johny's face...and GD's.

[Pinky the pilot]

...unless we form one union
dirty deeds; You are quite correct IMHO. What really surprises me is that few others seem to have tumbled to the same conclusion.
For unless we do, I suspect that indeed we will be "done dirt cheap!":{ :{

You only live twice. Once when
you're born. Once when
you've looked death in the face.

[numbskull]

I think you're right Elroy.

Although I am not directly affected now by the the redundancies in Syd heavy maint I expect there will be numerous follow up consequences that will affect me.

I was discussing the situation with my "old man" and pondering whether to jump now or wait to be pushed at a later date.

His response (which is from an outsiders point of view) was that "the golden years of aviation are gone. It's now little more than a bus service". In his day train drivers,station masters and even school teachers and policemen were held in high regard by the community. Times change and you have to keep ahead of the pack as best you can.

That may not be how we as aviation professionals see ourselves but that is how a lot of the public view us.

A lot of people think it would be good to earn $150K to fly around the world or to earn $70K to work on modern airliners and as such there will be no shortage of willing applicants. Whether those willing are up to the task of the responsibility, only time will tell.

Maybe its like the Roads and Traffic Authority where they only put up a set of lights after there has been numerous accidents and a few fatalaties. I hope that is not the case but the cynic in me says it will be.

Even if the incident/accident rate does creep up, will management see it as being their fault that they didn't pay eneough to get a higher quality employee or will they simply blame the employee for making a mistake doing a task that he wasn't capable of, or adequately trained for, in the first place. If you pay peanuts you get monkeys!!

If GD can get away with paying everyone 20-30% less and there is no impact on operations then I guess he's right. I don't like to think of the worst case scenario if he's wrong but I reckon that's the only way outsiders will recognise the true value of what all aviation proffessionals are worth.

Only time will tell.

[Centaurus]

It doesn't matter how little you pay airline pilots, the love and perceived romance of flying and the uniforms and gold stripes never fails to attract young people to the job if they can afford the initial training costs. Superb aircraft automation and in Australia anyway, first class ATC, go a long way to reducing CFIT accidents to acceptable levels of practically zero.

As much as it goes against the grain of those of us brought up to equate thousands of log book flying hours with safety, that argument is now largely irrelevant. A 250 hour pilot with 100 hours in a simulator is an automatic pilot ace. We can scorn the automatic monkeys as not skilful pilots, but seems to me the accident rates have fallen dramatically with increased use of automation. Excellent aircraft systems reliability helps too.

Pilot salaries are certainly on the way down in low cost airlines but accident rates are also at a historical low. If you can make the top grade in Dragonair and Cathay the high paying jobs, then best of luck but that is for only the chosen few.

[Chris Higgins]

Centaurus,

The problem with civvie training up to the airline intake is that nobody really fails and if they do, they just throw more money at the problem until it supposedly goes away.

Airlines all over the world hve the odd crew member that takes " a little longer to get through". The problem is that these problems that arise never really go away. They turn into expensive training events following busted checkrides or enforcement action from the certifying body.

"Have you driven a Ford lately?" If you have you'll know that they haven't learned a thing. High consumption, poor finish and recalls that centre around catching on fire. Some of these things can be fixed: others you just have to live with...or get another car.

Pilot recruitment is pretty much the same way.

[Gwan B Yirheid]

Aw come on boys and girls give us some good news, I've just been forced into paying for my "career advancement" - a poxy $10k Metro rating just to save my sanity and my life... and get out of the piston twin world.

This entitles me to part-time work where I get paid an amazing $34/hr!! Sounds not too bad... compared to the piston twin GA Job... but that's per flying hour. This week I had two days flying - Tuesday, two flights, short sectors, total two hours = $68 for 9hrs duty = $7.56/hr :{ :{ I'd get double that at McD's. Wednesday was worse 2hrs flying, 10hrs duty, so it dropped to $6.80/hr.

What am I supposed to do??? I've had some wicked times, some great flying, put my heart and soul in to it, coming up for 5years perseverance, a hundred grand investment, an airline job is almost on the horizon and now you tell me (from one school of thought) I wont get a decent wage once I get there; or (the other school of thought) if I do I get a decent wage (to me this equates to $100k+) I dont deserve it.

Should I give up... get a real job... tell my employer to stick it where the sun don't shine???

Do I throw another $30k into the never ending pit of aviation financing for a 73 rating and hope for a "decent salary"???

Do I persevere where I am and hope that this alleged pilot shortage is real and that a pilot friendly company finds me and offers me a great job... with just enough flying, interesting sectors, a good salary, great benefits and no HR department!!!

I don't know!!! I need help...!!! I'm clinging to my mid thirties with desperation getting paid paper-round wages, I have no money just debt, I need to know it was worth it and that I'll reap the rewards of my cheerful hard work and positive attitude.

L.O.L.

GWB

[gaunty]

Well I dont know what the latest figure is for a bare fixed wing CPL, but I was talking to the owner of a very succesful Helo operator and he tells me that a CPLH starts at $50,000.

There is a huge surplus of fixed wing GA pilots and an equally large shortage of helo pilots.

It appears to me that if you can walk and chew gum at the same time, helo is the way to go.:p, throwing more and more money at fixed wing career that hasn't yet got you in the door might be cause for pause and review. Your investment so far would not be wasted either.

[Blue-Footed Boobie]

GWB,

If you're single no kids then why not look to Africa with your metro rating or the Carribean? Get regular flying and paid well, tell your current employer 'no thanks'.

I can see you hanging around work washing planes, not getting paid for anything except the few hours a week you're doing. Aviation wouldn't exist in some Aussie quarters if it wasn't for that sort of committment, but as a market place it sucks.

A friend of mine worked for an outfit in Africa on King Airs, rating supplied FOC, £2000 month and he struggled to spend £200 of that on living costs and beer. It was tempting even to look at it myself.

Aussie pilots wanting to get a decent job back in Australia will struggle to find one now.

Good luck GWB

Blue Foot

[bushy]

Gaunty
Does your "very sucessful helo operator" run a helo flying school??

[gaunty]

bushy yes he does, but it is not his main game, and your point is?

[And Then]

If you can make the top grade in Dragonair and Cathay the high paying jobs, then best of luck but that is for only the chosen few.

Dragonair pilots are fighting an industrial campaign within the limited scope of Hong Kong labour laws. Wages are under pressure, with management attempting to force downgraded conditions onto new pilots. These downgraded conditions will make Dragonair pilots the lowest paid 747-400 pilots in the world, with management forcing them to commute from other countries, as housing allowances not paid.

Last week two pilots were sacked by management. The first tangible casualty in the campaign.